Author: GW

Cubs Acquire Victor Caratini

I can’t remember a trade deadline as eventful as the one that just past. Good luck to all the analysts trying to process (with the exception of Phillies watchers).

 

The Cubs only made one move today, acquiring Victor Caratini and Cash Considerations (UPDATE: Gordo saying $1mm to the Braves, contrary to earlier report) for Emilio Bonifacio and James Russell. This one apparently went down to the wire.

Caratini is a switch-hitter who was drafted by the Braves in the second round last year, and was considered the sixth-best prospect in the system by Baseball America as of a few weeks ago. He’s 6’1″, 205 lbs and converted to catcher after being drafted as a third baseman. BA had this to say about the positional switch:

Caratini has played catcher three times as often as third base this season, and while he ranks in the bottom half of South Atlantic League backstops in terms of throwing out basestealers (27 percent), his bat has not suffered for the conversion from the hot corner. …. Caratini caught sporadically in junior college, but a lack of agility coupled with a strong arm made him a natural conversion candidate in pro ball.

His career minor league line now stands at .283/.377/.415 with 17.7% strikeouts and 11.9% walks. Catcher development is a notoriously long process, so it will be a few years until he sniffs the majors.

Here’s his pre-draft scouting report, again per BA:

Caratini attended the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy and spent his freshman year at Southern, though he was ineligible. He transferred to Miami Dade and helped the Sharks to the Florida state juco tournament. He was recruited as a third baseman and brings a sound lefthanded bat, hitting .377/.467/.549 this season and showing consistent gap power. Caratini has good hands that work at the plate and in the field, and he has improved his stock by playing more at catcher. If he goes out in the first five rounds, it will be as a backstop. At 6-foot-1, 210 pounds, he has a strong enough build for the spot and his good hands have helped him make the transition. He has above-average arm strength and has proved a quick learner on the fundamentals of catching. He could be drafted as high as the third round.

The Cubs system is distinctly lacking in catcher depth, so it seems like a nice pickup. Catching is a difficult thing for laymen to evaluate though, taking someone else’s word for it is a must. That said, it’s hard to complain, given that Bonifacio was a last minute addition to the roster who wasn’t serving much of a purpose, and Russell is more or less interchangeable with Wesley Wright.

With the loss of Jeff Samardzija and now Russell, Brian Schlitter is on notice. The Cubs’ staff is increasingly at odds with the House of David.

DFP: The Deadline Cometh

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Did the Cubs Win?

Nope. Maybe they should have pinch hit a few pitchers.

Trade Deadline Update

The deadline is at 3 pm CT.

The Cubs were active yesterday. No word yet on the where Emilio Bonifacio is headed, but the Royals have been mentioned, which is almost too cruel. The Giants are also a potential destination, and have released Dan Uggla. Grant Brisbee made a joke about Kyle Crick, which didn’t endear him to Cub fans.

The A’s pulled off a shocking trade this morning, sending Yoenis Cespedes and a draft pick to the Red Sox for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes. Billy Beane is trying to create the next best thing to Curt Schilling/Randy Johnson. Does any GM in the game have more balls than Beane? Part of the motivation for this trade is likely that Jason Hammel has been absolutely awful in his four starts with the team, posting an ERA of over 9.5 and a FIP of 7.3. It looks like the velocity of his slider has been down, but otherwise I don’t see a clear explanation for it. Must be the absence of John Baker.

To compensate for the loss of Cespedes, the A’s followed up the move by sending Tommy Milone to Minnesota in exchange for Sam Fuld, which makes me exceedingly happy. Are there still Cub fans who love Sam Fuld? If so, I am eagerly anticipating the Fuld/Tony Campana contingent name-dropping Billy Beane in lamenting all the promising young players the Cubs have given away over the years. Also, I know the Twins have been aggressively pursuing power pitchers of late, but baseball never felt right when Tommy Milone existed and didn’t play in Minneapolis.

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Cubs Acquire Felix Doubront and Jonathan Martinez

The Cubs have been surprisingly active today, completing the Darwin Barney trade with the Dodgers, acquiring Felix Doubront from the Red Sox, and reportedly nearing a deal that would ship Emilio Bonifacio to… well, somewhere.

Jonathan Martinez

Martinez is a 20 year-old righty out of Venezuela who has now been named as the Barney return. In 2011 and 2012, he performed well enough in the Dominican Summer League and Rookie Ball, respectively, that the Dodgers sent him to the Midwest League to start 2013. The prospect mavens mostly ignored him, though MLB.com did place him at #15 in the organization, and had this to say:

He’s not the biggest guy in the world, but he has the makings of a good three-pitch mix that allowed him to strike out a batter per inning during his stateside debut. His fastball projects to be above-average and he could have two Major League average offerings in his slider and changeup. He’s generally around the strike zone and didn’t hurt himself with walks in his first step up the long organizational ladder.

He scuffled somewhat in a relief role in the MWL, and was sent back to the Pioneer League before returning to the Great Lakes Loons to finish out the season as a starter. Martinez is repeating that level in 2014, and the results have been somewhat better. He has struck out 21% of hitters while walking less than 5%.

His control seems to be his strong suit; his career walk rate is 5.5%. He leans towards being a fly-ball pitcher; his career groundball rate sits at 38.3%. Prior to the start of 2014, Great Lakes pitching coach Bill Simas described him thusly:

He pitches with his fastball a lot,” Loons pitching coach Bill Simas said. “He has a 2-seem (sic) running fastball that he pitches a lot. He will throw a changeup and mix a slider in there. He does know how to change speeds, and he’s better at it now.”

This seems like a depth pickup for the Cubs, who could be useful if he maintains good control while moving up the ladder.

Felix Doubront

In a surprise move, the Cubs also picked up Felix Doubront from the Red Sox for a player to be named later that may end up being a Rule 5 pick. Doubront is a lefty who at one point looked promising, but has recently fallen on difficult times. In 2012 and 2013 combined, he made 56 starts for the team, posting a 4.59 ERA over 323 innings pitched. He has always struggled with control (10.1% career walk rate), but seemed like a decent bet to improve were he to move out of the meat-grinding AL East.

Instead, 2014 has been abysmal. His velocity has dropped, and his strikeout rate along with it. A move to the bullpen in late June doesn’t seem to have helped, and his ERA for the season is over six. The 26 year-old requested a trade earlier in the week, and that request has been granted.

Doubront won’t hit free agency until after 2017, so the Cubs will have their chance to fix him. For the (apparent) price, he seems like a decent flier.

 

DFP: What A Dumb Game

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Did The Cubs Win?

Good Lord, where to begin? It was the longest game in team history, at nearly six and a half hours. Travis Wood pinch hit in the 4th inning. His fly out was followed by an Emilio Bonifacio homer, after which neither team scored for the next 12 innings. Jake Arrieta pinch hit in the 13th so the Cubs could save John Baker in case they needed to use him on the mound later, which they did. To repeat, the Cubs batted a pitcher in a high leverage situation just in case a position player was needed to pitch in a high leverage situation later. And given the state of pitcher usage in 2014, no one finds this all that odd. Keep in mind that the Cubs are currently rostering a 13-man pitching staff.

The Rockies actually used starter Tyler Matzek to finish the game, and of course he was outpitched by Baker and his mid-70s heat, loading the bases before giving up a sac fly to Starlin Castro.

I don’t want to gloss over the Arrieta pinch hit appearance, because it was a disaster. Runners were on first and second with one out. It was the highest leverage moment of the game to that point, and a situation in which pitchers should never bunt. It wouldn’t have been a bad idea for the previous batter, Nate Schierholtz, to bunt, but of course Renteria didn’t do that because he knew that a pitcher was following him to the plate. (Because, again, he had to save John Baker to pitch.) Arrieta struck out trying to bunt and I was relieved, because I was fully expecting him to bunt into a double play.

None of this is intended to kill Ricky Renteria. There are no good tactical managers. But, man, 21st century baseball is weird.

Trade Deadline Update

Justin Masterson is reportedly heading to the Cardinals.

Jonathan Martinez is the player to be named in the Darwin Barney deal.

Theo had some interesting comments to Jim Bowden yesterday. With regard to the future (approximately five minutes into the video), one gets the distinct impression that this offseason won’t be that different than last year, contrary to some prior indications from the front office. He did make this promise:

365 days from now, when you look up, there’s going to be impact talent on the field

Quick Links

  • Neil Ramirez is now resting on the DL.
  • Trade negotiations leak all the time, but rarely do you hear front office types explicitly call out another GM’s negotiating tactics the way multiple folks did to Jack Zduriencik here.

He has made offers and then pulled back after we have said, ‘This is something we would do.’ He responds (by saying) it wasn’t an offer and that he will need to discuss it with his guys.

…

I don’t always get the sense that he knows what he wants to do.

…

They think, ‘Who can we give up that will never be any good?’ They don’t want to give up anyone who will haunt them. That’s just flat-out fear.

  • Ever notice how in modern-day Sidd Finch stories, the discovering team is never alone in their find? When a player breaks out, there are always multiple teams on hand, not just some lone-wolf rogue scout in a virtual ghost town that America forgot. More than anything, that story just reminded me of the classic FJM/Andre Ethier saga. Are there any exceptions? C.J. Edwards, maybe. Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel, I guess.

DFP: Technical Difficulties and Selfish Sutcliffe

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Technical Difficulties

I know that many of you are struggling with the question of whether life is worth living in the wake of yesterday’s Darwin Barney trade. Know that OVBlog is dealing with the same struggle. Hold fast, you patient ones. We will get through this together.

(Alternate theory: evil genius Brett is planning to shut down the entire Cub blogosphere tomorrow as part of a dastardly plan to raise money for a worthwhile charity. To test his system, he picked a site whose absence no one would notice).

Did the Cubs Win?

Yes. This is a big series in the Race to the Top. The Cubs also face the Rockies again next week.

Trade Deadline Update

Jon Heyman reports that the Cubs have turned away inquiries on Chris Coghlan and Justin Ruggiano. Both are under team control and are unlikely to net much in the way of a return. On the other hand, the 2015 Cubs are likely to feature lots of Chris Coghlan and Justin Ruggiano, and that makes me about as happy as when I learned that the 2014 Cubs were likely to feature lots of Nate Schierholtz, which is to say:

Sidebar: Oliver had Ruggiano projected at 4.5 WAR coming into the season. What the hell?

Oh, Those Hooker Types

Yesterday Deadspin ran a post looking at Greg Maddux‘s scouting reports over the years. The thing that jumped out at me was this take on Rick Sutcliffe from 1990:

Bad outing. Don’t like hooker type of delivery. Not my type first line pitcher. Pitches for himself, not the club. Age and money against him.

That made me chuckle.

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DFP: Neil Ramirez and Rusney Castillo

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Did the Cubs Win?

Nope. Dropped two of three to the Cardinals this weekend.

Huh?

The Cubs sent Neil Ramirez to Iowa over the weekend, citing the need to rest his arm, which strikes me as extremely odd. Ramirez has been arguably the best reliever on the team, but has not been overused by anyone’s definition of the word. I can’t remember another example of a team limiting a reliever’s innings without an obvious reason, so what’s going on?

  • If he were at all injured, putting him on the disabled list would be the obvious choice, so I take the Cubs’ word that this is not injury related.
  • Service time is the next natural consideration. Ramirez was first called up near the end of April, however, so a short stint at AAA isn’t likely to keep him out of Super Two consideration. (And if it did, the Union would have a fit. It’s one thing to keep a player in the minors for an extra two months. A team can semi-plausibly argue that they don’t consider the player to be ready for the majors. Sending a player down who has been dominating in the majors is a different story altogether.)
  • Tanking? It has been pointed out that demoting a setup man is likely to have little or no effect on the team’s record, which is true. On the other hand, the optics are pretty bad. How much value are the Cubs placing on these games if they are choosing to sit a good reliever who was on pace for around 60 innings pitched? Which of these things has a greater probability of occurring: the presence or absence of Neil Ramirez significantly impacting the outcome of two games, or Neil Ramirez overstressing and injuring himself because he threw 60 innings instead of 55?

I wonder whether there is simply a mechanical adjustment that the Cubs would like to work out in a minor league setting.

Rusney Castillo

The Cubs watched Cuban defector Rusney Castillo on Saturday along with nearly every other team. Over 100 people were there in total. In case you missed it, I profiled Castillo back in February. The short version is that he appears to have been a late bloomer, and his numbers at age 24-26 were less impressive than the best Cuban exports. He has great speed, but for some reason his team avoided him playing him in at premium defensive positions. Back then, I would have guessed that he would sign for between $15 and $20 million. Now I think he will get twice that.

A full writeup from his workout is here.

Trade Deadline

The non-waiver trade deadline is this Thursday, and the Cubs could trade James Russell or Wesley someone something… Hey, look! Addison Russell homered three times this weekend!

Quick Links

  • Mark Appel finally pitched well, was promoted, and threw a bullpen in Houston. Astros players are not pleased, though it all seems perfectly reasonable to me. The discontent does seem indicative of a larger disconnect between the players and the front office. Given the team’s terribleness these past three seasons, that kind of thing is to be expected, I suppose. That the Cubs have largely avoided such incidents is a credit to Theo and Co.
  • Is there something in the air in Albuquerque? Earlier this season, Miguel Olivo bit off Alex Guerrero’s ear. Now there’s this, which was prompted by a brushback of Erisbel Arruebarrena.

DFP: The Lost Generation

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I’m in the minority around here when it comes to fretting about the Cubs leaving WGN next year. My argument is basically that being on basic cable around the country when no one else is has a huge impact on a team’s future bottom line, even if that impact is less today than it was twenty or thirty years ago. Brand loyalty in sports has to absolutely dwarf that of every other industry, and getting children around the country (who don’t make decisions about things like mlb.tv subscriptions) to watch the occasional day game seems like one of the best things a franchise could possibly do to cement future revenue streams.

That type of long-term thinking is mostly absent from sabermetric analysis, which is why I was thrilled to find this article. It has nothing to do with television exposure, but it does focus on the value of getting fans when they are young. Some excerpts:

The most important year in a boy’s baseball life is indeed age 8. If a team wins a World Series when a boy is 8, it increases the probability that he will support the team as an adult by about 8 percent. Remember, this is independent of how good the team was every other year of this guy’s life.

…

…[M]y model suggests that among 5- to 15-year-olds in 2012, 5 percent more fans will root for the Giants for the rest of their lives. Assume spending on baseball increases at roughly the rate of interest. And assume that these fans spend about as much as the average fan. The Giants can expect about $33 million, in net present value, from here on out, from their 2012 season, just from the boys they won over. … A championship season, in other words, is at least twice as valuable as we previously thought.

If true, that would significantly effect the calculus of midseason-trades.

I also wonder about the implications for complete tear-downs as a rebuilding strategy. Is there a break-even point beyond which putting yourself in a position to win a championship is counterproductive?* Are the Astros currently sewing the seeds for a lost generation of fans? Can Clark save the Cubs?

*For the record, I’m completely on board with the rebuild, if less convinced than others at the inevitability of success.

Cardinals Get a Comp Pick

The above article came to my attention in looking for fanbase data after the announcement that the Cardinals will get a “competitive balance pick” in next year’s draft.

From Facebook’s publicly available advertising platform, I downloaded data on how many fans every baseball team has, broken out by gender and age. (Facebook estimates whether someone is a fan of a team based on both “likes” and posts.)

This data is not perfect, but it does correlate pretty well with previous polling. According to Facebook, the most popular teams are the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cardinals and Braves…

So, yes. Theo is right.

Also of interest is a zip code-based breakdown of fan distribution. In Illinois, the Cub-Cardinal line roughly coincides with the Lincoln-Douglas vote in 1860.

Quick Links

1. Pitchers are getting better when they leave the Diamondbacks. My thoughts:

  • The organization clearly couldn’t work with Trevor Bauer, which strikes me as a huge problem. Whether his theories are optimal or not, they basically gave away a top pitching prospect because of what amounts to a communication issues. That is Brady Aiken-level bad. Player development has to be a two-way street, with the organization listening and trying to integrate prospects into their system.
  • De-emphasizing the cutter also seems like a big deal; I have heard that the Orioles do this, as well. It’s worth noting that Daniel Hudson started throwing the pitch right before his ligaments disintegrated. Perhaps that scared them off?
  • On the whole, though, I don’t know that there is enough data to say that something is really wrong, especially since pitchers are typically leaving for friendlier parks.

2. Tangotiger and Co. are trying to figure out what’s wrong with Verducci’s data.

DFP: Welp, It Begins

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Update Your Depth Charts

Darwin Barney —> DFA

Emilio Bonifacio —> Activated from the DL

Tsuyoshi Wada —> Cubs

Arismendy Alcantara —> Time to play

Mike Olt —> Iowa

Jorge Soler —> Iowa

Albert Almora —> Tennessee

Jacob Hannemann —> Daytona

Moving Too Late

The Yankees acquired Chase Headley yesterday for Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula (maybe). I really like that and the prior trade for Brandon McCarthy, as both seem like decent bets to improve in the second half, the playoffs are well within reach, and the Yanks really didn’t have to give up anything.

The bigger story, though, is that the Padres sold brutally low on Headley. To a lesser extent, I feel the same way about Darwin Barney. Barney never hit well, and it’s easy to forget that there was a time when he was genuinely sought after. In 2011 and 2012, he hit just enough to make him an average player in WAR terms, and was always linked to the Tigers and other teams in desperate need of middle infield help.

Seemingly from the minute Theo made it clear that a major rebuild was coming, I rooted for a Barney trade to happen, and for the Cubs to use some money to try other options at second. This past offseason, for example, I wanted Aledmys Diaz, Alex Guerrero, or Nick Franklin. Diaz seems to have really suffered from his long post-defection layoff, and Guerrero has significant weaknesses in defense and cranial cartilage, but mainly I just wanted them to take a chance and not put all their eggs in the existing prospect basket. That opportunity is gone now, and there’s nothing left but to take a deep breath and hope for the best with the coming wave of prospects. It really feels like the beginning of the next era of Cubs baseball.

The defense was always great with Barney, and I think everyone recognized that. The other aspect of The Barney Era that stands out is the wisdom of the Cubs in not moving him to shortstop when Castro looked very shaky. Barney was always a short term piece, and in a rebuilding phase it was more important to let Castro grow into the position. Thumbs up to the team for recognizing that.

Quick Links

DFP: Future Pen vs. Future Rotation

Neil Ramirez scoffs at such amateurish pantomimes.

Daniel Lewis Day

The Cubs signed pitcher Daniel Lewis out of the Cape Cod League yesterday. Lewis is 23, but took four years off to serve in the Air Force. He was reportedly reaching the high-90s on the Cape. Mark Gonzales has more. The one interesting takeaway for me is that this is another example of the Cubs favoring older pitchers with “fresh” arms. See also: the selection of Jake Stinnett in the second round over a host of more highly regarded high school arms.

The aging curve for pitchers has never been as well defined as for position players, likely because of the wear and tear that pitching inflicts on ligaments. There may be some benefit to targeting physically mature players with in tact connective tissue.

Future Bullpen

The Cubs are oddly well-positioned at the back-end of the bullpen for the next few years. Hector Rondon and Ramirez have pitched very well. Arodys Vizcaino is showing premium stuff at Iowa, and Armando Rivero has arguably been better in terms of results. Rivero has struck out 36% of hitters faced in his two minor league seasons, with a full 29% of those coming via the whiff. Both Vizcaino and Rivero could be called up at any time, but there isn’t a pressing need. Corey Black is currently starting for Tennessee, but also seems destined for a bullpen role.

Typically, good bullpens come together at the last minute as failed starters transition to new roles. The Cubs’ depth, however, is largely in pitchers with premium stuff who just don’t profile as starters for one reason or another. Unfortunately, the team is really going to need starters going forward, and there the outlook isn’t so rosy.

Future Starters

To that end, Ken Rosenthal is suggesting that the Cubs should go after David Price. Brett disagrees, and has the right of it, in my opinion. Almost all of Price’s value is tied up in the remainder of this season and next, when it is unlikely to be of much use to the team. There is something to be said for getting a player on the roster and securing favorable extension terms, but for pitchers as close to free agency as Price is, extensions aren’t necessarily such a great deal.

I’m not sure what the answer is, as none of the 2015 free agents are all that appealing for what they will cost. Justin Masterson has knee issues, control problems, and has always been shelled by lefties. In his case, I think Baseball Reference better reflects his value (10.4 career WAR) than Fangraphs does (15.3). Jon Lester has 1500+ innings on his arm and James Shields has 1800+. Max Scherzer turned down $144 million prior to this season.

Thus far, the team has been magnificent at finding starters on the cheap, but I don’t think that skill is as bankable as some others do. There’s a reason that they signed Edwin Jackson for $52 million: that’s what he was worth on the market, and trying to beat the market is a loser’s bet as often as not. Scott Feldman really is a 4.5 ERA pitcher; his sub-3.5 stretch with the Cubs was fortunate. Jason Hammel turned out to be healthy when most teams thought that he wasn’t. And usually when teams go looking for the next Jake Arrieta, they find the next Chris Volstad.

Future Journeymen Update

It was a quiet day on the minor league side of things.

  • Jorge Soler was 2 for 3 before being lifted as part of the Cubs’ efforts to keep his hamstrings healthy. He is slashing .405/.500/.798 in limited action this year.
  • Dan Straily pitched six innings for Iowa, striking out 7 and walking 2. He gave up 2 homers and 4 total runs. If Straily can regain some of his lost magic, it would go a long way toward’s improving the staff’s future outlook. The A’s are no slouches at evaluating pitchers, though, and they were trotting out one-dollar acquisition Brad Mills instead of Straily prior to the Jeff Samardzija trade.
  • Dan Vogelbach was 2 for 5 with Daytona. Vogelbach has been a disappointment on the whole, but it’s worth noting that most of his struggles have been against lefties. In his minor league career, he owns a .299/.389/.518 line against righties, versus .257/.344/.395 against southpaws.
  • Sahadev Sharma profiled Kyle Schwarber for ESPN yesterday, noting that the early reports on his receiving ability have been positive.

 

Daily Facepalm 7-21-14

Did The Cubs Win?

Nope. Swept by the Diamondbacks this weekend. Anthony Rizzo is devising innovative ways to help the Cubs lose close games whilst performing admirably. Rizzo hit three homers in the series and is now tied for the NL lead with Giancarlo Stanton.

Race To The Top

Speaking of which, the Cubs now have the third worst record in baseball at a game-and-a-half behind the Rangers. That the Rangers are at the top of that list is pretty shocking, even moreso in that it’s not a fluke. Their rotation is currently Yu Darvish followed by avert your eyes, with Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, and Martin Perez having missed all or most of the 2014 campaign. The team has resorted to trotting out J.P. Arencibia at first base with Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland out. In 2013-2014 combined, minimum 550 PA, Arencibia has been the worst hitter in baseball with a wRC+ of 51. Number two on that list? Darwin Barney.

The Cubs host the Padres this week. Losing that series is going to take some doing.

Future Journeymen Update

The I-Cubs lost in extras last night at Round Rock. Javier Baez went 3 for 6 with no K’s, a stolen base, and a caught stealing. Not a great night for Kris Bryant, who went 1 for 6 with 3 K’s. Arodys Vizcaino threw a scoreless 8th, hitting 100 on the gun thrice, impressive despite lefty Aaron Poreda following him on the mound and promptly hitting 103(!). The wispy Armando Rivero looked very good in two scoreless.

Meanwhile in Huntsville, Addison Russell hit two homers, which is great to see. I always hold my breath on prospects whose stellar career numbers have largely been accumulated in the Cal League.

Things To Read On An Off Day

  • It’s a month or so old, but Sbnation had a very interesting piece on the proper understanding of pitcher velocities.
  • Foxsports’ new site has a profile up on amateur baseball’s formerly ubiquitous recluse, Tom Emanski.
  • Commenter GBTS wrote a great piece on the legality of baseball’s collectively bargained bonus pool system in the wake of the Brady Aiken/Astros fiasco.