Author: GW

A Few Good Tweets on Brady Aiken

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Untweeted Addendums

  • The risk in not signing lies almost exclusively with Aiken and Jacob Nix, and that is entirely the fault of the Players’ Union. Neither Aiken nor Nix is likely to win a grievance, in my opinion, which means the Astros will simply be awarded the #2 overall pick next season.* The main risk on the Astros’ side lies with Luhnow himself, depending on how Jim Crane views the situation in retrospect.
  • Remember when Ground Control was hacked and everyone noted that the Astros came off like the most annoying owner in their fantasy league (e.g. in asking for Lucas Giolito in return for Lucas Harrell)? I heard some pretty good arguments at the time that this strategy was actually a sound negotiation tactic. Aiken’s case, however, seems like Exhibit A in how it can go bad.

*Most feel that Nix has the better case. If the Astros were to be found at fault and forced to honor their agreement with Nix, they would exceed their budget and lose their first round picks in the next two seasons.

Series Preview: Cubs (40-54) at Diamondbacks (40-56)

It’s nice to have a competent front office. Sure, the team is really bad, but I don’t ever really worry about the little things, like our GM so offending a draftee that his agent won’t even return the team’s calls on signing deadline day. I never thought that Jim Hendry was a terrible GM, but were he in charge right now, I would be terrified that someone was about to get traded because the team has too many shortstops or somesuch. As it is, I am only vaguely aware of Mets fans who think that Starlin Castro is destined to be headed to the Big Apple for Bartolo Colon and Daniel Murphy.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, don’t seem to be very functional at the moment. After years of swapping talent for grit and a floundering start to 2014, they brought in Tony La Russa as Chief Baseball Officer, to oversee Kevin Towers in a role that he doesn’t even seem to understand. La Russa seems to be comfortable interacting with manager Kirk Gibson, at least, setting up strategy sessions that are undoubtedly worthy of a thousand facepalms:

As for Gibson, the two have been in semi-regular contact, with La Russa acting upon Gibson’s insistence on being critiqued. ...

“I gave him a situation that came up and said, ‘Here’s a test.’ He listened and he wasn’t offended. He knows I’m on his side.”

It’s not clear, though, how he’s working with Kevin Towers, in what is an important time for the club, as they should really be selling off assets for useful pieces.

Last week, an unnamed executive from an American League team told ESPN.com that the Diamondbacks’ current situation made trade talks confusing. Between Towers and La Russa, the executive said, it’s hard to tell who’s calling the shots. La Russa understands the sentiment, saying the “delineation of responsibilities” is not “crystal clear here or beyond here.”

“But if they’re interested in talking to the Diamondbacks, they can call either one of us and we’re going to talk to each other,” La Russa said. “As a matter of fact, there was one gentleman who called and left a message for both of us, which I think is the smartest thing. But we’re going to communicate and we are communicating.”

I just love that bolded quote.

Team Overviews

D’backs:

  • wRC+: 89 (12th)
  • UBR: .1 (9th)
  • SP FIP-: 107 (11th)
  • RP FIP-: 93 (7th)
  • UZR: -7.2 (11th)
  • DRS: 13 (6th)
  • BaseRuns Dif: -65

Cubs:

  • wRC+: 85 (13th)
  • UBR: 4.2 (1st)
  • SP FIP-: 91 (2nd)
  • RP FIP-: 92 (4th)
  • UZR: 0.4 (9th)
  • DRS: -4 (12th)
  • BaseRuns Dif: -11

Injuries, Notes, etc…

Last year’s breakout lefty sensation, Patrick Corbin, is out with the Tommy John. Daniel Hudson is currently rehabbing from his second bout with the disease. Even ironman Bronson Arroyo has recently succumbed, though not before making six (surprisingly OK) starts with the injured elbow. Relievers David Hernandez and Matt Reynolds also caught it at the beginning of the year.

Brandon McCarthy was traded to the Yankees a few weeks ago for Vidal Nuno, leaving their current rotation as Miley, Collmenter, Nuno, Chase Anderson, and Trevor Cahill. Almost-Cub Randall Delgado is the long man out of the pen. Former White Sock Addison Reed is still the closer, but he has been struggling of late.

On the offensive side, shortstop Chris Owings is currently on the DL with a sore shoulder, leaving Trevor Bauer Didi Gregorius to man the position. A.J. Pollock, who was having a breakout season, is out with a fractured hand. Mark Trumbo is back after having been sidelined for most of the season with a foot injury.

For the Cubs, Emilio Bonifacio is currently rehabbing in AA. Don’t be surprised if Arismendy Alcantara gets sent down when he returns, if only temporarily in an attempt to drum up some trade interest.

The Cubs only have three starters at the moment, though it looks like Kyle Hendricks will be called up next Tuesday. Tsuyoshi Wada is a good bet to fill the other vacant spot.

Pitching Matchups

(ERA, xFIP, Steamer ROS ERA)

Friday: Edwin Jackson (5.64, 4.02, 4.23) vs Trevor Cahill (5.66, 3.94, 3.86) 8:40 PM CT

Stellar matchup here. Cahill and the $17 million remaining on his contract were actually sent to the minors in June. This is his first start back with the big club. His time in Reno didn’t go all that well, as he walked 17% of the hitters he faced.

Saturday: Travis Wood (4.96, 4.60, 4.31) vs. Wade Miley (4.18, 3.31, 3.88) 7:10 PM CT

Miley’s periphs have been quite good this year, even though his ERA is off from his career norms. His strikeout rate is well above league average.

Sunday: Jake Arrieta (1.95, 2.72, 3.92) vs Josh Collmenter (3.80, 4.37, 4.40) 4:10 PM CT

Arrieta has been magnificent this year, even though the projection systems aren’t really buying it yet. If he can maintain, he could turn out to be a real steal for the Cubs. Collmenter has been pressed out of his typical long-man role and into starting duty with mixed results. His periphs have predictably suffered, even though his ERA is fine. I think a lot of Collmenter’s semi-success stems from the novelty of his delivery, which is about as over-the-top as humanly possible.

Brady Aiken is Not Injured (Or Three Lists of Three)

Today at 4 pm is the signing deadline for draftees. The big story concerns #1 overall pick Brady Aiken, and can be read about here and here.

Summary:

  1. Aiken has a smaller than normal UCL.
  2. The Astros are offering him the minimum amount required by the CBA to an injured draftee (40% of their original deal).
  3. Because the team hasn’t completed a deal with Aiken, it cannot honor its agreement with fifth round pick Jacob Nix, as Nix’s overslot deal draws from the money allocated to the team from the #1 overall pick.

Possible outcomes:

  1. If the Astros were to honor their agreement with Nix and fail to sign Aiken, they would lose their first round pick in the next two drafts. (This won’t happen)
  2. If they sign neither Aiken nor Nix, they will receive the #2 overall pick next year as compensation, and keep their regular picks. (Possible, but unlikely in my opinion)
  3. If the Astros successfully sign Aiken at the revised lower offer, they stand a good chance of signing both Nix and 21st round pick Mac Marshall, who has a strong commitment to LSU. (My guess is that the team ups their offer to Aiken a bit, and this comes to fruition).

The discussion I have heard in saber-circles is lacking in some respects, and I think too much credit is being given to the team simply because they are very astute, and “we” like smart front offices.

  1. Most seem to freely describe this as an injury. If it’s true that Aiken has simply a smaller than normal UCL, and not a torn one, I don’t see how anyone could accurately characterize it as such. Aiken’s performance has not suffered one bit. Instead, it’s a risk factor for future injury. That seems to me an important distinction, and one that calls into question the team’s use of the injured player provision. (Unfortunately, I can’t find the details of that particular provision in the CBA).
  2. Doctors are not omniscient. Much has been made of the fact that Aiken has visited five doctors to evaluate his UCL. I think it is likely that these doctors have no idea how to assess a small UCL as a risk factor for future injuries. Surgeons see broken UCLs and look backwards to determine risks, and they haven’t said anything about TJ patients disproportionately starting with smaller than average UCLs. What is needed here is a study that assesses a group of small-UCL’ed pitchers and a control, then determining the differences in future UCL injury rates. That is unlikely to ever happen, and lacking it, a physicist would probably be a more effective consultant than a doctor in evaluating Aiken’s risk.
  3. Aiken is worth more than he is being offered, small UCL or not. It is very hard to believe that the Astros are not pushing the limits of the CBA with their lowball offer to Aiken. Were he to be declared a free agent today, I think a $15-20 million dollar bonus is probably conservative. (Just ask mediocre Cuban reliever Raisel Iglesias). Even within the confines of the artificial pricing structure that is the MLB draft, 40% of the original deal seems too low. Jeff Hoffman dropped only 4 or 5 spots in the draft, and his UCL was actually torn.

Now, I’m sure the team is legitimately concerned about the risk of future injury, but they are milking this for all that it’s worth in trying to acquire Marshall, threatening to reneg on Nix’s deal, and possibly being content with a “do-over” in next year’s draft should things not play out the way they want. The player’s union shares some blame for Aiken’s plight, of course, given their characteristic disregard of draftees in the last round of CBA negotiations. Even so, it’s hard for me to see this as anything but bad form from the Astros.

Daily Facepalm 7-18-14

Is there a Cubs Game Today?

Yes. Finally. The Cubs are on the road in Arizona.

JOT Update

Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Addison Russell, and Jorge Soler all homered last night. Baez started at second base last night. He looked OK. There were a couple of batted balls that a player with great range would have at least gotten closer to, if not made the play. He also struggled with his footwork on one of the three double plays he turned, but that shouldn’t be a problem after he gets a few more reps.

Bonus OV HitTracker Data

BaezBryantrr

I am as skeptical of Baez’s major league future as any Cubs fan (because: K’s), but in the two I-Cubs games I have seen in person this year, he has gone 6 for 9 with two homers and three doubles. Both homers were massive, and his double last night was a low liner that hit the middle of the wall down the left field line. It has been enough to turn any curmudgeon into Jason Parks where Baez is concerned.

Update: Video for Baez and Bryant homers.

Draft Signing Deadline

Today at 4 pm is the signing deadline for draftees. The Cubs have mostly wrapped up their class. The big story involves top overall pick Brady Aiken and the Astros. I started typing my thoughts on that situation, but it really deserves its own post. That should be up shortly.

Hear, hear!

  • Craig Calcaterra has an excellent piece up on the drudgery that preceded the all-star game telecast.
  • Rany pays tribute to Mark Buerhle.
  • Jeff Sullivan agrees that “too many shortstops” is not something to worry about in the Cubs’ case.

Consensus Midseason Top 50 Prospects

Top 87, technically.

It’s midseason prospect list time. With the release of Keith Law’s top 50 today, a majority of the mavens have now released their midseason updates. I took a look at as many of them as I could,* and combined them to produce a consensus list.

*I omitted Bleacher Report, but if someone would like to go through their slideshow and send me a readable list, I would be happy to include it if and when I update the list.

Since the majority of these lists are top 50’s, I assigned 50 points for a first place vote, 49 for a second, etc… and summed them all up. I am also showing a rating, which is simply the fraction of votes a prospect received as compared to a hypothetical unanimous #1 overall prospect. This should produce a better overall reflection of a prospect’s value than a simple ordinal ranking would.

Rk Player POS Team Rtg High Low
1 Byron Buxton OF MIN 98.9 1 3
2 Kris Bryant 3B CHC 98.6 1 3
3 Carlos Correa SS HOU 95.7 2 5
4 Addison Russell SS CHC 92.6 4 6
5 Francisco Lindor SS CLE 90.3 3 9
6 Javier Baez SS CHC 85.4 5 15
7 Jon Gray RHP COL 80.6 7 23
8 Dylan Bundy RHP BAL 80.0 7 16
9 Lucas Giolito RHP WSN 79.7 7 17
10 Archie Bradley RHP ARI 78.9 6 18
11 Joey Gallo 3B TEX 78.0 4 21
12 Miguel Sano 3B MIN 76.3 9 20
13 Corey Seager SS LAD 75.7 5 19
14 Noah Syndergaard RHP NYM 72.0 9 19
15 Robert Stephenson RHP CIN 63.7 10 36
16 Joc Pederson OF LAD 62.9 14 29
17 Julio Urias LHP LAD 61.4 13 36
18 Blake Swihart C BOS 56.0 14 29
19 Henry Owens LHP BOS 54.3 15 40
20 J.P. Crawford SS PHI 53.1 15 36
21 Tyler Glasnow RHP PIT 52.6 16 34
22 Alex Meyer RHP MIN 52.0 12 42
23 Hunter Harvey RHP BAL 47.7 13 UR
24 Kohl Stewart RHP MIN 38.6 19 UR
25 David Dahl OF COL 37.7 17 UR
26 Daniel Norris LHP TOR 37.1 22 UR
27 Arismendy Alcantara 2B CHC 36.6 18 50*
28 Taijuan Walker RHP SEA 35.7 7 UR
29 Raul A. Mondesi SS KC 32.9 22 UR
30 Austin Hedges C SDP 32.3 17 UR
31 Aaron Sanchez RHP TOR 32.0 13 UR
32 Jose Berrios RHP MIN 28.6 24 50
33 Braden Shipley RHP ARI 28.6 23 UR
34 Oscar Taveras OF STL 27.1 3 UR
35 Jameson Taillon RHP PIT 26.3 24 UR
36 Jorge Alfaro C TEX 23.4 25 UR
37 Kyle Zimmer RHP KC 22.6 21 UR
38 Mookie Betts 2B BOS 22.0 9 UR
39 Jorge Soler OF CHC 20.3 24 UR
40 Carlos Rodon LHP CHW 20.0 10 UR
41 Josh Bell OF PIT 19.1 29 UR
42 Jesse Winker OF CIN 18.9 29 UR
43 Mark Appel RHP HOU 18.0 33 UR
44 Jimmy Nelson RHP MIL 16.0 24 UR
45 Andrew Heaney LHP MIA 12.9 11 UR
46 Luis Severino RHP NYY 12.0 34 UR
47 Brandon Nimmo OF NYM 11.7 34 UR
48 Raimel Tapia OF COL 10.3 31 UR
49 Clint Frazier OF CLE 10.0 38 UR
50 Albert Almora OF CHC 10.0 33 UR
51 Matt Wisler RHP SDP 10.0 28 UR
52 Nick Gordon SS MIN 10.0 25 UR
53 Brady Aiken LHP HOU 8.9 20 UR
54 Nick Kingham RHP PIT 8.6 37 UR
55 Stephen Piscotty OF STL 8.6 30 UR
56 Hunter Dozier 3B KC 7.4 37 UR
57 Michael Conforto OF NYM 7.4 32 UR
58 A.J. Cole RHP WSN 7.1 32 UR
59 Alex Jackson C SEA 6.9 35 UR
60 Tyler Kolek RHP MIA 6.3 30 UR
61 James Paxton LHP SEA 6.0 30 UR
62 Kyle Crick RHP SFG 5.7 31 UR
63 Austin Meadows OF PIT 5.4 40 UR
64 D.J. Peterson 3B/1b SEA 4.9 40 UR
65 Dalton Pompey OF TOR 4.3 40 UR
66 Tim Anderson 2B BOS 3.7 38 UR
67 Hunter Renfroe OF PIT 3.7 44 UR
68 Jose Peraza SS ATL 3.4 39 UR
69 Kevin Plawecki C NYM 3.1 40 UR
70 Gary Sanchez C NYY 2.9 45 UR
71 Ryan McMahon 3B COL 2.9 41 UR
72 Joe Ross RHP SDP 2.9 41 UR
73 Nick Williams OF TEX 2.6 46 UR
74 Maikel Franco 3B PHI 2.6 43 UR
75 Michael Taylor OF WSN 2.6 42 UR
76 Aaron Blair RHP ARI 2.0 44 UR
77 Eddie Butler RHP COL 2.0 44 UR
78 Taylor Guerrieri RHP TB 2.0 44 UR
79 Aaron Judge OF NYY 1.7 45 UR
80 Rafael Montero RHP NYM 1.4 46 UR
81 Michael Lorenzen RHP CIN 1.1 47 UR
82 Rio Ruiz 3B HOU 1.1 47 UR
83 Lance McCullers RHP HOU 0.9 48 UR
84 Lewis Brinson OF TEX 0.9 48 UR
85 Alex (Chi Chi) Gonzalez RHP TEX 0.6 49 UR
86 Dominic Smith 1B NYM 0.6 49 UR
87 Miguel Almonte RHP KC 0.3 50 UR

Technical Notes

Most of the lists omit players currently in the majors. That has changed for some prospects based on differences in publication date. Most also choose not to rank recent draftees. I have dealt with these on a case-by-case basis.

  • Oscar Taveras, Mookie Betts, and Andrew Heaney were left off of the majority of the lists. Their position on the consensus list shouldn’t be taken as indicative of anything.
  • Likewise, only two lists included draftees (Keith Law and Prospect 361). Don’t read much into the positioning of Carlos Rodon, Alex Jackson, Tyler Kolek, and Brady Aiken.
  • For Arismendy Alcantara and Jimmy Nelson, on the other hand, I have made adjustments. Both were considered by most lists. Keith Law omitted them, but indicated that both would have made it. I gave both a #50 overall ranking for Law. Likewise, Marc Hulet indicated that Alcantara would have made his list, so I have ranked him #25 overall for Fangraphs. Both probably would move a few spots had all the lists considered them.

Sources

To get a better understanding of each prospects strengths and weaknesses, please check out comments from the authors of these lists. Consensus ranks were based on seven sources.

Baseball America

Baseball Prospectus

Minor League Ball (John Sickels)

ESPN (Keith Law)

Fangraphs (Marc Hulet)

The Baseball Haven (Evan Vogel)

Prospect 361 (Rich Wilson)

 

“Daily” Facepalm 7-16-14

All-Star Game

The AL won the All-Star Game last night 5-3. Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo were both Doolittle’d.

The game was mostly a Derek Jeter fawning session. Adam Wainwright did his best to undermine that narrative by saying that he grooved one to Jeter to start the game. It might have worked, too, had he not been quoted on the record. Instead, Wainwright was called out by Ken Rosenthal and the broadcast booth, shifting the focus squarely to his lack of integrity. He then quickly issued a sputtering, incoherent retraction to Erin Andrews in the dugout.

I don’t mind the idea of a single midseason game determining home field advantage in the World Series, but the All-Star game doesn’t really work for that. Managers can’t bring themselves to actually try to win the game. There is too much “everyone must play” inertia, which, when combined with the sprawling roster sizes, makes the game a difficult watch. Furthermore, fan allegiance to a particular league is weak. You will never hear Mets fans chanting “NL East” in the vein of “SEC.” I like the style of play in the NL, but if the Cardinals make the Series, I would prefer that they didn’t have home field advantage. I’m sure the same goes for Giants fans with respect to the Dodgers and Red Sox fans with the Yankees.

What I think might work is a separate HFA game featuring players from the teams with the two or three best records in each league. Maybe take the best from the three division leaders. Between them, the Orioles, Tigers, and Athletics have about a 60% chance of making the Series. A game with limited rosters featuring the best players on those teams against its NL counterpart might have a chance of turning into an actual competitive game.

All-Star week is interminable and vacuous. The only event scheduled for Wednesday is the No-Futures Game (aka the AAA All-Star Game), and Thursday is an off-day. Move the All-Star game to Monday, play the HFA game on Tuesday, and use Wednesday for a combined Futures Game/Homerun Derby. Something like that.

Prospect List Updates

The latest batch of midseason prospect lists are being released this week. Both John Sickels and Marc Hulet have Kris Bryant at #1 overall, which is pretty neat. Sickels has Javier Baez falling to #15. Keith Law will round out the bunch with his release tomorrow.

The Rise of the Switch-Pitcher

A few years ago I messed up something in my throwing shoulder playing softball. In the several months afterward, I experimented with throwing left-handed. It didn’t go well. As a result, there is nothing I’m more impressed with than professional players who can throw competently with either arm. So count me completely on board with John Sickels, who wants the Yankees to free Pat Venditte. Jacob Emert at BA points out another amby, Ryan Perez, who is currently pitching in the Cape Cod League.

In case you are wondering about switch hitter/pitcher matchups, the Umpires have ruled that the pitcher must declare which arm he will throw with before the at-bat, which I think is silly. Not only does it marginalize a skill that is vanishingly rare, but also seems antithetical to baseball’s precepts. The defensive team holds the ball in baseball, unlike in other sports, and it decides how to initiate the action.

Bryant and Baez BP Videos

Baseball America has posted some videos from batting practice at the Futures Game, including good looks at both Kris Bryant and Javier Baez.

Baez’s Futures Game BP and the Homerun Derby

The Homerun Derby starts tonight at 7 pm on ESPN. There are changes in the format this year, but I can’t explain them to you, since I have never payed close enough attention to know the way it used to be. That said, I am going to watch this year, mainly to see whether Giancarlo Stanton does anything amazing. Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig will also be there, but I am too bitter to fully appreciate their work.

I can’t be the first one to suggest this, but wouldn’t it be a better event if they mixed in a few prospects? I have to think that having Joey Gallo, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant involved would make it more interesting for everyone. Batting practice sessions at the Futures Game have practically become a religious experience for prospect watchers, as the kids dial it up for the bigger crowds than they are used to as well as the dozens of scouts in attendance.

J.J. Cooper broke down where they landed in the BP sessions over at Baseball America to facilitate comparisons with this evening’s festivities. Gallo actually broke the windshield of the Chevy Silverado that will serve as the Grand Prize for tonight’s winner, which is a delightful metaphor.

Baez hit a few big shots, but as Cooper pointed out, Target Field’s setup better highlights the work of lefties.

A Closer Look At Kyle Hendricks’s Debut

Kyle Hendricks was the “other” prospect in the Ryan Dempster trade behind Christian Villanueva. Ostensibly part of Theo’s “get an arm in every trade” mantra, scouts didn’t think that highly of him, but he showed good control in the minor leagues.

Hendricks made his major league debut last Thursday for the Cubs. After a rough first-inning, he settled down and finished with a decent line: 6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 7 K, 3 BB, 1 IBB. Three of the runs crossed the plate in the first, the other being a solo homer to Ryan Ludwick. According to PITCHf/x, he was in the strike zone on ~50% of his pitches, which is fine, and batters made contact with only ~83% of those pitches, which is good! On the other hand, he faced a Reds lineup without Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco, Billy Hamilton, and Brandon Phillips, which is really bad.

The main thing that I was curious about with Hendricks was his velocity. Scouting reports we had heard coming into the game said that he threw four pitches: fastball, change, curveball, and cutter, with the ability to change speeds well and keep hitters off balance. The problem was that most reports had the fastball in the high-80s, 91 at best. Generally speaking, pitchers who throw 88 in the Major Leagues are either veterans who have lost velocity and managed to cope because they are veterans and full of wile, or pitchers whose teams would really rather they be in AAA or the bullpen.

The one exception to the velo reports was from John Arguello, who passed along a tidbit from Iowa manager Marty Pevey saying that Hendricks was hitting 95 “15-18 times per game.” Hitting 95 that frequently would indicate that it was well within his range. While that kind of jump would be pretty surprising, I didn’t dismiss it outright simply because Hendricks has seen a bump in his K-rate this year at Iowa, and if he were consistently throwing in the low-90s, it would be pretty easy to understand why. And of course, he’s the manager and he should really know that sort of thing.

khendricksdebut

It appears the Pevey report was an exaggeration. The five fastest pitches that Hendricks threw were in the 91-93 range. Interestingly, Brooks Baseball thinks that these were four-seam fastballs, a distinct pitch from the sinker that sat around 88. Perhaps it’s a new addition, given how infrequently he used it, though pitching coach Bruce Walton didn’t mention that before the start. Instead, he said that Hendricks was throwing a new changeup and curveball this season. (The change was reasonably effective on Thursday; Hendricks threw it 23 times, generating 17 swings, 7 whiffs, and one Ludwick HR).

On the whole, I don’t think the start changes our expectations much. There is a fine line between a back of the rotation innings-eater and a swingman/6th starter, between Travis Wood and Carlos Villanueva. Hendricks will have to consistently do the little things well to stay on the right side of that line. His performance in AAA this year has been promising, but whether or not it will translate is still an open question.

OV “Daily” Facepalm 7-12-14

Did the Cubs Win?

Yes.

(h/t Aisle424)

In Soviet Russia, Prospects Block You

Yesterday in the comments it was suggested that perhaps it’s time to send Mike Olt back to AAA and see whether he can sort some things out there. Uncle Dave pointed out that Olt is more or less blocked at both AAA and AA by better prospects, which is probably true. And pretty amusing.

San Diego GM Update

CBS’s Jon Heyman points out that a half-dozen candidates for the vacant general manager position in San Diego have removed themselves from consideration, including Cub scouting guru Jason Mcleod and interim GMs A.J. Hinch and Omar Minaya. It’s possible that these reported withdrawals were preemptive, and that the candidates weren’t really under serious consideration. If that is not the case, I find the whole thing to be shocking, frankly.

General Manager is more or less the pinnacle of achievement for aspiring front office types, and there are only 30 positions available. Moreover, the Padres’ vacancy is the first since 2011. How unattractive must the job be for even one candidate to turn it down out of hand?

LeBron James to Cleveland

Usually we steer clear of NBA happenings around these parts, but it seems that the NBA offseason has reached a climax, as LeBron announced his return to Cleveland yesterday. The fallout from the Decision pt II can’t possibly live up to it’s predecessor (unless you are from Cleveland, I suppose). My favorite part of the Talents —> South Beach incident was the ensuing public referendum on the Comic Sans font, which ultimately led to this quote from its creator coming to light:

If you love it, you don’t know much about typography. If you hate it, you really don’t know much about typography, either…

The move from Miami to Cleveland has instantly transformed the Cavs into the favorites to win the championship, which highlights just how different team-building is in the NBA as compared to MLB. (And thank goodness for that.) No one is all that surprised when the Angels end up sucking despite the presence of Mike Trout. Over at Fangraphs, Jeff Sullivan takes a stab at what a baseball version of LeBron would have to look like, and comes up with either:

…absolute peak Barry Bonds at the plate with, I don’t know, absolute peak Ozzie Smith in the field.

Or

…Micah Owings crossed with God.

Curiously, Mark DeRosa‘s name wasn’t mentioned.

Bulls

Meanwhile, it looks like the Bulls are going to miss out on their primary target in free agency yet again, as Carmelo is poised to return to the Knicks. The advanced stats movement in the NBA is pretty fascinating to me. For the longest time, Carmelo was viewed as a high volume, low efficiency scorer that may actually hurt his team. Two good years in New York, and suddenly he’s universally lauded. Now, it’s likely that he was underrated in his Denver days, and that most folks have come to a more nuanced understanding of the metrics. Still, I think that philosophically, baseball analysts would look on him with a lot more skepticism. 30 years old, a huge contract to fit under the cap, two good seasons after a host of only OK ones… perhaps we should up our offer for Kevin Love.

Of course, the Bulls have no offense, the alternative looks to be Ben Wallace Rip Hamilton Dwyane Wade Pau Gasol, and the team will likely have to give up assets to avoid a Carlos Boozer amnesty, so… yeah, it’s not great.

Aroldis Chapman vs. Mike Olt

Aroldis Chapman is not a popular figure among Cub fans at the moment. He buzzed Nate Schierholtz twice on Thursday, and nearly drove our hero to fisticuffs after staring down the Cubs dugout in the ninth. I’m pretty relieved that no punches were thrown, because the Reds strike me as the wrong team to mess with, to paraphrase Ryan Braun*. Chapman originally wanted to become a professional boxer. He sponsors Cuban boxers in the US strictly because he enjoys being around the sport. A 6’4″ lefty with enormous reach who can handle himself? Um, no thanks. In addition, Jonathan Broxton may be the largest person in baseball. Johnny Cueto once ended Jason LaRue‘s career, and Cueto looked like the voice of reason yesterday in holding back Alfredo Simon. Count me as glad that series is over, because any escalation would likely end poorly for the Cubs.

*I’m going to chalk that particular sentiment up to chemically-induced belligerence from Braun. The 2009 Brewers didn’t strike me as all that intimidating. If a player was inclined to mess and scanning a list of candidate teams to receive said messing, they certainly wouldn’t be the first one scratched off the list. Sure, Prince Fielder has a larger gravitational pull than most, but he’s only 5’11”.

I bring up the Chapman altercation because it is topical, but what I really wanted to focus on is a bout completely devoid of pugilism. It was pointed out in the comments that on Wednesday night, two prolific strikeout artists, Chapman and Mike Olt, went head-to-head in the ninth inning. The results were predictable: Olt struck out. But, just how predictable was it?

As of this writing, Chapman has struck out 51.4% of the batters he has faced. Among pitchers with at least 20 IP, that number comfortably leads the majors. In fact, were he to finish the season at that rate, it would be a the highest ever, edging out 2012 Craig Kimbrel. Chapman has struck out a batter in 39 straight appearances, and more often than not, he strikes out two per inning.

Mike Olt has nearly been Chapman’s historic equal from the batter’s box. Olt has struck out in 38.9% of his plate appearances. Among players with 180 PA, he is edging out Juan Francisco as the league “leader” in that category. He is currently neck and neck with Cody Ransom‘s 2012, and Melvin Nieves‘s 1997* for the highest rate of all time.

*I was shocked that a pre-2007 player-season showed up on the list. As a league, the NL is currently striking out in 20.5% of it’s plate appearances. In 1997, only 16.6% of AL appearances ended in a strikeout. Nieves in ’97 was a full 22.2 percentage points higher than the league average. Melvin Nieves: secret strikeout king.

The bottom line is that this matchup was one for the ages. Irresistable force meets tissue paper. But exactly how often would we expect a Chapman vs. Olt matchup to end in a K? The question can be answered using the odds ratio. For the sake of this exercise, I’m going to assume that Olt and Chapman’s current rates are equal to their true talent levels. In truth, both will likely regress to the mean some as the season moves along. All-time single-season records in July tend not to be so in September. I’m also going to ignore the platoon advantage, which works significantly in Olt’s favor, and the pinch-hitting penalty, which runs marginally in the opposite direction.

Plugging and chugging, it can be found that no less than 72.3% of Chapman/Olt matchups would be expected to end in a strikeout. Almost 3 out of 4 would end with him waving and walking back to the dugout. This, in a game being played at the absolute highest level, not some ill-conceived barnstorming tour.

If we use the same method and similar assumptions, an additional 11.2% of their matchups would end in a walk, and 1% in a hit-by-pitch. In sum, if the two faced off 100 times, only 15 or 16 would end with Olt making contact. The Reds could field a team full of Jose Molina‘s and still have a decent shot at preventing any runs from scoring over a 100-PA stretch. In fact, let’s make some more assumptions, and see what an Olt v. Chapman batting line would look like over the course of a season.

I’ll leave out any sac flies, bunts, and reached on errors. I’ll assume that Olt and Chapman’s career HR rates on contact are indicative of true talent, which helps Olt, who hit an unsustainable number of homers when playing regularly earlier this season. I’ll set the BABIP for the matchup at .265, which likely isn’t too far off. Using those assumptions, over the course of a 650 PA season, I find that Olt would put up a .060/.175/.128 line with 470 K’s and 73 BB’s against Chapman. He would hit 11 homers, so that’s something!

That batting line is at least in the right ballpark. I thought about messing around with the assumptions to see where it would take me, but then I realized that the projected batting line my numbers spit out is nearly identical to Olt’s actual line for June (.057/.132/.143), during which time he faced many pitchers who were not Aroldis Chapman. And that is just depressing.