Author: GW

OV “Daily” Facepalm 7-9-2014

Happy Arismendy Alcantara Day!

a-alcantara1Of all the strange consequences for prospects under the current CBA, perhaps the strangest is this: the less potential a prospect has, the quicker he is likely to make the majors. If your goal as a prospect is to get to the “Bigs” as soon as possible, the sweet spot is being good enough to contribute at the major league level, but with low enough upside that you probably won’t be a significant piece for a good team. No one pays attention to Justin Grimm‘s arbitration clock. The Rays weren’t furiously checking their Super Two Calendar when considering the promotion of Kevin Kiermaier or Brandon Guyer. Prospects like Desmond Jennings, George Springer, and Kris Bryant, though, can pretty safely pencil in two dates for possible big league promotion: “Extra Year of Club Control Day” in April, and “Super Two Day” in June.

The Platonic Form of “good enough, but no real potential” might be Chris Owings of the Diamondbacks. Owings made the odd top 100 list before the 2013 season, but wasn’t anyone’s idea of a consensus top prospect. He performed reasonably well in the hitter’s paradise that is AAA Reno that year, was called up in September, and broke camp with the team this April. Such a quaint, 1990s-like timetable.

Alcantara is a notch above the Owings Zone, and will likely have only two days with the Cubs while Darwin Barney is on paternity leave. Tough luck, kid. You just need to work off a little bit of that extra upside in Iowa. On the bright side, both of Alcantara’s games will be on WGN. Hopefully he starts.

Race to the Top

The Cubs managed to drop both halves of a double-header against the Reds yesterday. Meanwhile, the Astros, Rockies, and Phillies all won, moving the Cubs to within a game and a half of the worst record in baseball. The Diamondbacks did manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory thanks to an Addison Reed blown save, mitigating what could have been a banner day for the Cubs in the race to the top. #1 draft pick fever: it’s spreading!

Manny Ramirez, Mentor

Who would ever have imagined this three years ago? Manny was then considered so aloof and self-centered that his name was synonymous with obliviousness. Now multiple people are floating the idea that he’s an effective hitting coach and a good influence on prospects with a straight face. I am fully bracing myself for the inevitable hiring of Ozzie Guillen by the Marlins as a Social Media Consultant.

IFA Trades

So far, the Cubs’ supposed discovery of a market inefficiency in the value of 2014 pool slot value hasn’t panned out. The Brewers, one of a few teams pursuing space this year, traded Rodolfo Fernandez to the Athletics for $339,000 in space. They still need at least another $150,000 to sign Gilbert Lara, so don’t be surprised if the Cubs end up stepping in. Meanwhile, the Rays acquired almost $1 million in space from the Marlins for pitcher Matt Ramsey. The Rays are going into the max penalty regardless, but are poor enough that they can really use the dollars saved in tax money.

Fernandez and Ramsey make Ronald Torreyes look like an elite prospect. If that’s where the market is at, it’s no surprise that the Cubs haven’t made any moves.

Dylan Cease Signed

35th-rounder Jordan Minch has agreed to terms, and sixth round high school stud Dylan Cease signed for $1.5 million last week.

That’s a pretty steep price to pay for a high schooler about to undergo Tommy John surgery, but hopefully he turns into something special down the road. The amount of money that Cease required pretty much closes the book on the hopes that the team would be able to land one of the late-round top 200 players that it drafted. Isaiah Gilliam, Michael Cantu, and Riley Adams were always longshots, though, so no big loss.

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 14

Trade season kicked off this week, so pour one out for all those unfortunate single-leaguers who lost Jeff Samardzija or Addison Russell. Jason Hammel owners get no sympathy from me, since they have been playing with house money.

For mixed leaguers, the change in venues  from this week’s trades didn’t really affect fantasy values much. Samardzija and Hammel move to the more difficult league, but a great pitcher’s park. Brandon McCarthy gets out of Arizona, but Yankee Stadium is not an upgrade.

Oscar Taveras

Was sent down after scuffling a bit earlier in the season, but is back with the major league team now. I wouldn’t worry much about playing time, and I don’t see any reason for concern over his performance. If you liked him previously, pick him up now whilst he is largely unowned.

Side Note: It’s pretty refreshing that the Cardinals haven’t had anyone come from out of nowhere and blow away their projections this year for the first time in seemingly forever.  Matt Holliday and Allen Craig are even having down seasons! Welcome to how the other half lives.*

*Cringes and waits for them to go on a second-half tear.  

Marcus Stroman

I have pushed for him before, but he’s still not owned in enough leagues. That said, he’s on the road against the Angels this week. I might wait until Thursday to pick him up.

Danny Salazar

Last four starts in AAA: 6 IP, 4ER, 9K, 3 BB; 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 1 BB; 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB; 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 K, 2 BB

According to reports, his velocity is not quite back up to 2013 levels. And even last year, he had trouble going deep into games, so I don’t see that changing in the forseeable future. That said, Justin Masterson is hurt (even if the Indians won’t admit it) and when Salazar comes back up, he has the potential to shift the balance of K’s in every league. A decent stash, depending on the depth of your league.

Tsuyoshi Wada

I’m not sure what to make of Wada, but am willing to take a flier.

Josh Tomlin

Uhh… where did this come from? Tomlin is striking out 22% of hitters, compared to just 15% for his career. He has always had great control. He’s a flyball pitcher, and he doesn’t throw very hard, so I think he’s still just a matchup play in shallow leagues, but still…

Pass

Steve Pearce

By all means, if he’s available in your 15-team mixed, pick him up. I wouldn’t touch him in a 10-teamer, though, and if I needed him in a 12, I would probably be very unhappy with the state of my team. He’s 31 years old, and has never previously managed to warrant 200 PA’s in a major league season. When players like that blow up, it’s usually very short-lived.

Chris Young, Vance Worley, Odrisamer Despaigne, Tom Koehler

Reflections on the Samardzija Trade

Last night, the Cubs traded Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, Dan Straily and a PTBNL. In following reactions around the Cub twitter-sphere, I was pretty surprised at how split the reactions were: fans who have bought in to what Thoyer is doing think this is on par with the Wedding at Cana, those who haven’t think the current front office is filled with twelve-year-old prospect mavens. I guess I should expect it- that’s what twitter is, after all- but I can’t help but wonder: am I the only person who thinks this is a very fair deal for both sides?

On Addison Russell

Russell is a premium prospect, without a doubt. He’s a shortstop who can stick at the position, and he can hit with power. He’s legitimately a top 10 guy, the caliber of player that wasn’t coming back for Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Matt Garza, or Scott Feldman. He’s exactly the type of player that the Cubs have coveted in this rebuild, but have previously lacked the ammunition to acquire. And despite putting it all together this season, 1.5 seasons of Samardzija likely wouldn’t have been enough to get him. It took a healthy Jason Hammel who also happened to be pitching better than ever to make it happen.

On the other hand, I don’t see it as a miracle that the team managed to shake him loose from Oakland. The A’s received two pitchers who are currently performing at top-of-the-rotation levels. One of them is under contract for next season, and will probably be moved if the A’s falter in 2015. The other seems like a shoe-in to get a qualifying offer for 2015, and thus a draft pick or a reasonable contract for next season is in the offing (EDIT: Forgot that this wasn’t right). To me, a premium prospect is exactly what it should take to get that deal done. Also, Jeff Passan tells us that the A’s previously offered Russell for David Price, and that Tampa rejected the deal.

It’s easy to imagine a scenario in which the Cubs didn’t get a player of Russell’s caliber, but as J.J. Cooper pointed out, Russell had to be included in any deal with Oakland. And Oakland can really use the pitching.

On Billy McKinney

McKinney was the #2 prospect in the A’s system, but the A’s system isn’t very good right now. McKinney didn’t make the preseason top 100 for BA, BP, or Fangraphs. John Sickels had him at #106. He has performed reasonably well in 2014, but a .315 wOBA in the Cal League isn’t likely to put him onto any of the midseason lists. He is very young, and a good pickup for a Cub organization that lacks outfield ‘spects, but don’t look at the “#2 Prospect in the System” label and assume that he is top 50 material.

On Dan Straily

It’s tempting to think that Straily is the next Jake Arrieta, but the comparison doesn’t fit that well. Yes, Straily was looked fabulous in 2012, but his velocity has steadily declined since then, and now he’s throwing 88 mph and walking 10% of hitters in Sacramento.

On Too Many Shortstops

I don’t see any issue here. Middle infielders who can hit will always be at a premium. Yes, the Cubs have Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez, but as Myles has pointed out, both come with a fair amount of risk, and neither is as well-rounded as Russell. Baez will likely have to shift away from the position. Alcantara may be good enough to stick there, but has already moved. Hopefully Alcantara has the speed to play center, as it looks like he could end up there before long.

For those who wanted pitching, answer this: is there any pitching prospect in the minors that you would exchange straight up for Russell? The answer for me is a pretty easy “no.”

On the A’s

Oakland is an easy franchise to like, even for curmudgeons like me whose first inclination is to scoff at those who read Moneyball and spent the next decade hyperventilating about market inefficiencies. I really admire their boldness here, especially since this trade is so reminiscent of the one that brought Matt Holliday from the Rockies, all the way down to Carlos Gonzalez and Addison Russell’s hamstrings. Here’s hoping that this one pans out for them, that Samardzija helps them win it all, and that the Cubs feel as good about the deal in five years as Colorado does now.

Cubs Trade Samardzija, Hammel to the A’s

Well, that escalated quickly. The Cubs have traded Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Athletics for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, Dan Straily and a player to be named later. Ken Rosenthal was the first to report discussions about an hour ago, and was the first to call it done. Tom Loxas has been all over these discussions, as well, while Keith Law filled in the final details.

(UPDATES: Rosenthal is not reporting the PTBNL. Susan Slusser says PTBNL or cash. Passan also says yes, authoritatively.)

Addison Russell was the top prospect in the A’s system, ranked #14 overall before the start of the season. He’s a 20-year old shortstop currently playing in AA. He owns a career line of .300/.390/.519 in the minor leagues with a 22% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate. According to Jason Parks, he will rank #6 overall on Baseball Prospectus’s forthcoming midseason list. Here’s what Baseball America had to say about him prior to the start of the season:

Russell can do everything on the field while showing polish beyond his years. His swing hasn’t required much tinkering since he entered pro ball, as he generates explosive bat speed and has the bat-to-ball skills to make consistent contact… He uses the whole field and stays inside the ball well. He already had a mature approach, but he chased fewer pitches and controlled the strike zone even better as the 2013 season went along… Russell has plenty of power for a shortstop, though he’ll rate close to average overall as he projects to continue producing 15-20 homers a season ..Few question his defensive future now [at shortstop]. Russell has solid fundamentals and takes good angles to balls. His lower half works well, and he has the range and athleticism to make plenty of highlight-quality plays. He doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, but it’s strong enough for the position and plays up thanks to his quick transfer and accuracy…

Billy McKinney was the a first round pick of the A’s last year out of high school. He’s a 6’1″, 195 lb outfielder,  currently playing in Stockton (A+). His career line is .277/.354/.416, with 16% walks, and 10% strikeouts. BA, again:

 It didn’t take long for observers in pro ball to fall in love with McKinney’s baseball aptitude and picturesque lefthanded swing. He shows advanced instincts both at the plate and in the field, with his tool set drawing Mark Kotsay comparisons. McKinney gets around on good fastballs but also has the bat control to handle offspeed stuff. Scouts forecast his power to show up more down the road, projecting him for 15-20 homers. He doesn’t have premium speed, but he’s a good athlete and average runner. He gets good jumps and takes quality routes in the outfield, giving him a chance to stick in center field, though the pre-draft consensus was he’d have to move to a corner. His average arm could give him a chance in right if he can’t stick in center.

Dan Straily really broke out in AAA in 2012, striking out 32% of the batters he faced while walking only 7.5%. That success hasn’t translated well to the pros, and Straily has been up and down since then. In 2014, he has struggled somewhat with his command, walking about 10% of hitters between AAA and Oakland. His velocity has been down a notch on all his pitches this season, as well.

Loxas has speculated that there could be another team involved, which wouldn’t be all that surprising given the Cubs’ depth at shortstop.

Overall, I’m lukewarm about losing Samardzija, but this is a very solid return.

IFA: Cubs Sign Four Players; Video and Potential Trade Partner Updates

Cubs Summary

There seem to be some questions about his birthday.

  Cabera is 6’2″, 190 lbs (video).

Peguero is 5’10”, 155 lbs (video).

Rijo is 6’1″, 175 lbs.

It’s nice to see the team making moves. So far, though, there’s not much in the way of pitching depth, which was reported to be their strategy coming into this period.

Trade Wrap

No trades involving international slot money have been made thus far, which is somewhat surprising.

No team can trade for additional space after eclipsing their original bonus limits. In evaluating potential trade partners going forward, it’s important to separate teams that look like they will need additional space from teams that have already used their space. There is a good chance that teams withholding signing announcements are doing so because they are considering trading for additional space. The important caveat is that signings can’t be officially announced until a player turns 16. If you are following along, Ben Badler is particularly careful about not reporting agreements until the contract is actually signed, whereas the distinction is not always clear with Jesse Sanchez and Kiley McDaniel.

The Yankees and Red Sox are already over their limits, which shouldn’t surprise anyone, as there almost no incentive to trade for space when planning to exceed your limits. Which teams do look like they could be positioning themselves for a trade?

  • The Brewers have yet to make the Gilbert Lara signing official, even though he turned 16 last October. Lara alone would take them into the max penalty.
  • Originally, I didn’t think the Mariners would be in the market for pool space, but some think they are holding back on a million-dollar deal with Chris Torres, who was originally projected by most to sign with the Yankees. Neither he nor $1.8mm bonus-baby Brayan Hernandez have yet officially signed.
  • The Padres may have an agreement with Venezuelan outfielder Bryan Emery, but haven’t yet announced his deal, which would put them in the max penalty. Kiley McDaniel has pointed out that Emery could be a casualty of the Josh Byrnes firing, though, which would take the Pads out of consideration for additional space.
  • None of the other candidates that I mentioned on Monday seem like particularly good bets to acquire space.

Who Will the Cubs Trade With on July 2nd?

Lara

The new international free agent signing period starts Wednesday. The Cubs were unable to stay within their allotted bonus pool limits last year, and won’t be able to spend more than $250,000 on a single player this year, despite having nearly four million dollars to spend. What that adds up to is the that the team is likely to trade some of that money, which can be moved only in the form of slots starting on July 2nd.

Slot Value
1 $2,288,700
2 $458,000
3 $309,300
4 $206,700

For the last few weeks we have heard a few rumors that could be construed as related to the start of the IFA period. The Cubs have been telling teams they expect to deal Jason Hammel early and Jeff Samardzija late. Last year the Cubs received bonus pool space in connection with the Scott Feldman trade on July 2nd. We might see something similar with Hammel, with the pool space heading in the opposite direction. Hammel need not be involved, though. The team could deal a slot for minor league depth independently of its major league talent.

The trend in IFA has been towards locking up players ever-earlier. Some of the players who have agreed to deals with teams in this class did so ten months ago, so most teams know exactly what they need in space, and have likely been negotiating pool space trades for some time. I tried to round up as much information as I could to see which teams are clear trading partners for the Cubs. Obviously, the details of most deals are not yet known, so these are just guesses. On the other hand, big money deals disproportionately eat up pool space, and those are the ones that tend to leak. So, who will the Cubs deal with?

No Chance

Yankees, Rangers

The Yankees are going to spend in the neighborhood of $15 million on prospects. They are more likely to trade space away then to trade for it. The Rangers are in the same boat as the Cubs, albeit with a far lower bonus pool to work with.

Unlikely

Red Sox, Rays, Astros, Marlins, White Sox, Twins, Angels, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Nationals, Reds, Indians, Pirates, Athletics, Cardinals

The Red Sox and Rays are interesting cases. Both teams seem to have commitments beyond what they could possibly trade pool space for.* Both have bad records this year, however, and are on track to have larger pools next year that they will be unable to use. It’s very uncommon for teams to back out of commitments, though, so don’t expect anything with those two.

*Teams can bring their budget up to 150% of their original allotment via trade.

The rest of these teams either seem to be involved in the market, but with big enough pools that exceeding them is unlikely (Astros, Marlins, White Sox, Twins), or haven’t been connected to any of the bigger names.

Don’t Think So

Mariners, Mets, Giants, Tigers, Braves

These teams have been connected to some big names, but their projected signing bonuses seem comfortably within their budgets (a million or so of projected excess space).

Hmm… Maybe

Brewers, Rockies, Padres, Phillies, Blue Jays, Royals, Dodgers

Here’s where we get to some interesting cases. The Brewers have reportedly agreed with Gilbert Lara for approximately $3.2 million. Their budget is around $2.6 million and max penalties in the absence of a trade start at $3.0 million. I suppose it’s possible that they are interested in a deal for Hammel + pool space. There’s not much depth in their system beyond Jimmy Nelson, though, and adding $600k+ in space will likely require something substantial in return.

The Rockies have been connected to Pedro Gonzalez, Antonio Arias, Yeremy Rosario, and Javier Guevara, which looks like it would put them right in the neighborhood of their $3.48 million max-penalty limit.

The Padres are a mystery. They are connected to a handful of big names that would put them right around the $3.77 million that they could possibly trade up to. Usually that’s the mark of a team that’s going over no matter what, and is not interested in acquiring space. On the other hand, they just fired their GM. If any team is going to back out on some agreements and/or make some trades to preserve flexibility for the next guy, it’s the Pads.

The Phillies, Blue Jays, and Royals seem to be within about a half million of their original budgets. They are probably under budget, but my confidence level in the reported information isn’t that high. Any of them could well be planning to trade for some space and go over. Also, the Blue Jays have been connected to the Cubs in trade talks for the last decade or so, so it seems mandatory that they be mentioned in this space.

The Dodgers haven’t really been connected to anyone. I just think it’s silly to rule them out when discretionary spending is at issue.

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 13

Mookie Betts

The Red Sox pulled the trigger on Betts yesterday after struggling to find production in the outfield all year long. He will likely be better for them than your fantasy team, but he should help in batting average and steals. In approximately 2 full seasons worth of minor league plate appearances, he has stolen 88 bases, but only hit 23 homeruns. Potentially relevant to his value:

1. ESPN has him as an outfielder, which is where he will likely play with the Sox. CBS has him at second base, his primary position in the minors, and Yahoo! actually has him as a shortstop. He has the potential to be a huge pickup in Yahoo! leagues.

2. If he starts out hot, there’s a good chance that he’s slotted into the top of the order, which would be great for his counting stats.

Taijuan Walker

Walker is starting Monday for the Mariners. He has a lot going for him: great stuff, good park, and a better receiver than he has worked with throughout the minors in Mike Zunino. I’m not going to bid much, though. His shoulder problems this season combined with a history of not great walk rates has me somewhat concerned.

Jesse Hahn

Decent enough numbers, not that highly thought of. It’s San Diego, though, and Hahn has two home starts this week against Cincinnati and San Francisco. Should be worth streaming, at least.

Closers

Jason Grilli

It’s like the old saying goes: out of the fryer and into the grill. Or something like that. Ernesto Frieri was swapped for Grilli on Friday. I think both are a good bet to see improvement in the ERA/WHIP categories. Grilli is likely to be the closer in LAAoA, though, while Frieri is probably only relevant in holds leagues moving forward.

Santiago Casilla

Bruce Bochy declined to give Sergio Romo a vote of confidence after his blown save yesterday. Casilla is likely next in line, and is worthy of a speculative add. I wouldn’t be dropping Romo just yet.

Jake Petricka

Ronald Belisario has been removed from the role on the South Side, and the situation has become one that I am avoiding. If pressed, I might take a flier on Zach Putnam.

Trade Candidates

I wanted to draw attention to a bunch of players whose value could be significantly impacted by a trade, as trade season is upon us. Keep these in mind when considering trades and waiver wire fliers.

Players who I think are a decent bet to see their values increase: David Price, Brandon McCarthy, Chase Headley, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Will Venable, and Joaquin Benoit.

Potential decreases: Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel, Ian Kennedy, Bartolo Colon, Mark Trumbo, Alex Rios, Justin Morneau, and Drew Stubbs.

Pass

With a few exceptions, I usually don’t write up players who are hot pickups, but who I am avoiding in shallow leagues for one reason or another. There’s something to be said for mentioning them, though, and I will try to do that henceforth. This week: J.D. Martinez, C.J. Cron, Josh Harrison, Jarred Cosart, and Danny Duffy.

Yasmani Tomas Cuban Stats

Slugging outfielder Yasmani Tomas Bacallao has defected from Cuba. Tomas traveled to Haiti early last week and has since made his way to the Dominican Republic. The story was first reported two days ago by Ben Badler at Baseball America, and has been confirmed by Cuban officials. Tomas is 23, right-handed, and has played in parts of five seasons with Industriales in Serie Nacional. Once cleared to sign with a major league team, his salary will not count against international spending limits. This makes him an obvious target for the Cubs, who are not allowed to spend over $250,000 on an under-23 IFA in the 2014-2015 period, and presumably are looking closely at all available international targets.

Yasmani Tomas Stats

Tm Age PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS R RBI HBP BB SO SB%
2009 IND 18 102 91 27 3 1 1 4 3 12 11 0 8 19 0.57
2010 IND 19 27 26 5 0 1 1 0 1 4 3 0 0 7 0.00
2012 IND 21 240 226 68 13 1 16 4 2 36 42 2 10 44 0.67
2013 IND 22 144 127 44 9 2 8 1 3 24 25 2 12 19 0.25
2013.5 IND 22 180 150 36 9 1 7 0 0 21 35 2 22 33 0.00
2014 IND 23 170 151 39 9 1 4 3 4 14 23 1 15 30 0.43
2014.5 IND 23 87 80 28 6 1 2 3 2 14 12 0 6 16 0.60
Totals   950 851 247 49 8 39 15 15 125 151 7 73 168 0.50

 

  Age PA AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS+ BB% K%
2009 18 102 0.297 0.350 0.385 0.088 77 8 19
2010 19 27 0.192 0.185 0.385 0.193 35 0 26
2012 21 240 0.301 0.333 0.580 0.279 134 4 18
2013 22 144 0.346 0.403 0.638 0.291 190 8 13
2013.5 22 180 0.240 0.333 0.453 0.213 114 12 18
2014 23 170 0.258 0.324 0.411 0.152 107 9 18
2014.5 23 87 0.350 0.391 0.525 0.175 135 7 18
Totals 950 0.290 0.345 0.504 0.214 124 8 18

Tomas only just clears the CBA’s new five-season requirement. He debuted in the 2008-2009 season as an 18-year old, and performed reasonably well in 102 PA. The next season he only merited 27 PA, however, and he didn’t see the field at all in 2010-2011. I haven’t found a good explanation for this, and it could well have just been based on performance. Starting in 2011-2012, he started playing more or less every day, seeing time all over the field, but mainly third base and left field. In 2012-2013, he became the primary center-fielder for Industriales. Tomas is 6’1″, 230 lbs. That he managed to play quite a bit of center speaks to his athleticism, even if he’s not expected to play anywhere but the corners in the majors. He may well have stayed in center were it not for the arrival of los hermanos Gourriel to start the ’13-14 campaign.*

*Third baseman Yulieski Gourriel might be the best player in Cuba at the moment. He and his brothers (Yunieski and Lourdes Yunielki) moved from Sancti Spiritus to the capital last summer. Officially, the reason was to provide better care for their ailing father, though many in Cuba suspect it had as much to do with caring for Industriales, which was Fidel’s favorite team. Yunieski took over as the regular in center field.

It should be noted that Tomas suffered a wrist injury at some point in the second phase of the 2014 season. As a power-hitter, any lingering effects could set back his development in the U.S.

Power is Tomas’s calling card. Although his numbers aren’t as gaudy as those of some fellow exports, they hold up well when adjusted for era. in 2011-2012, Cuba raised the pitcher’s mound and started using a less-lively baseball.* I don’t think Tomas is a sure thing, however, as his plate approach leaves much to be desired.

*I suspect this is the same dead ball that caused a ruckus after being phased out in Japan, but I haven’t been able to confirm it.

Cuban Comps

Yrs PA AVG OBP SLG OPS+ ISO+ BB% K%
Yasmani Tomas 12-14 821 0.293 0.350 0.523 134 209 -1.7 5.3
Jose Abreu 08-10 1015 0.356 0.478 0.681 180 224 1.7 3.6
Alfredo Despaigne 07-09 1183 0.353 0.456 0.670 183 252 3.4 -2.2
Yoenis Cespedes 07-09 1190 0.303 0.384 0.564 138 207 -0.1 0.0
Alex Guerrero 08-10 1009 0.327 0.405 0.578 129 173 -0.1 -1.4
Rusney Castillo 09-11 556 0.322 0.369 0.518 112 129 -5.6 1.3
Ernesto Molinet 06-08 1094 0.284 0.390 0.449 115 136 2.8 1.1
Dariel Alvarez 09-11 1016 0.306 0.361 0.481 102 117 -4.2 -4.7

Given the length of the Cuban season, I always try to use at least three seasons worth of data in evaluating results. Shown above are the age 21-23 seasons for Tomas and other prominent Cubans. OPS+ and ISO+ are league-, but not park- adjusted. Walk and strikeout rates are percentage points above or below league-average.

A seventeen percent strikeout rate doesn’t sound particularly onerous, but it is bad by Cuban standards. Tomas has routinely been near the bottom of the league, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to expect him to be in the vicinity of 30% in the bigs. He hasn’t made up for it with his plate eye, either. His walk rate is below average, and nearly a third of those have been of the intentional variety. It should be noted that Jose Abreu also had a sub-optimal approach early in his career, though he took a significant step forward at age-23 and never looked back. On the other hand, Abreu’s peripherals haven’t been good thus far in the States.

There’s no arguing with Tomas’s strength. Ben Badler says his raw power rates a 70 on the 20-80 scale. And his isolated power rates stack up well with the Abreu’s and Cespedes’s of the world.

Prediction

The market has been outpacing my predictions of late. I thought Daniel Carbonell would receive around a million, and he signed for $3.5 with the Giants. I pegged reliever Raicel Iglesias at around $3 million, and he is reportedly close to a deal with the Reds for $15 million. On the other hand, I thought Abreu would settle around $90 million, and he checked in well short of that. Similarly, I thought that Aledmys Diaz would easily clear the $6 million he received from the Cardinals.

I don’t think Tomas will be close to Abreu, but given his age and the recent success of Cuban sluggers, I do think he will command a premium. As such, I’ll say $35 million. Even at that level, he looks somewhat risky. Hitting coaches can’t teach 70 power, though.

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 12

The waiver wire is getting fairly thin. The Super-2 callups have mostly passed. Kris Bryant and Joey Gallo aren’t seeing any time in the majors this year. FWW favorites Corey Dickerson and Alex Wood are owned in most leagues. As a result, I’m skipping the position players this week, and some of the SP’s might be deeper than is typical. Feel free to scour the archives if you aren’t satisfied.

Starting Pitchers

Dylan Bundy

Bundy is working his way back from Tommy John, and the reports have been positive. He could join the Orioles rotation sometime in July. Not a bad DL-stash.

Clay Buchholz

It’s hard for me to believe Buchholz won’t bounce back from a terrible start, but for now he’s a spot-starter. His rehab has gone well. It looks like he will get the call this Wednesday in Seattle, which is a nice matchup.

Carlos Martinez

I’m not crazy about his numbers, but he has premium velocity, and those players have a tendency to improve. He will likely stay in the rotation for a while, at least, as both Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia just hit the DL with shoulder problems.

Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi has been dropped in many leagues after a long string of mediocre starts. The peripherals are pretty stout, however, and his velocity is the best in the league (or thereabouts). He starts in Philly and at home against Oakland this week.

Closers

Mark Melancon

The Pirates say that they want Jason Grilli to earn the job back, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Melancon should be a top-tier option going forward.

Joel Peralta

Peralta took his turn today in the Tampa committee, which should really have a name like a political action committee: Rays United Against Jake McGee‘s Arbitration Payday (RAJ MAP). A little long, maybe. I’m open to suggestions.

Are the Cubs Being Cagey About Signing Bonuses?

The Cubs appear to be making steady progress in signing their most recent draft class. Updated information can be found here.* Top pick Kyle Schwarber is in Boise, and no less than 15 others have given strong indication in one form or another that they have agreed to terms. Notably absent, though, is any indication about signing bonuses for most of these picks.

*Bandwidth limits have been exceeded, but updates are still visible in the background. EDIT: It’s fully functional now.

Signing bonus information typically starts flowing in after the draft, and this year has been no exception. Twitter feeds from Jim Callis and Chris Cotillo are filled with data for signees from all over the league; a good overall signing tracker is here. For the Cubs, however, we really only have any indication for Schwarber and Mark Zagunis, which leads me to wonder whether the team is doing everything it can to suppress that information. Players who were expected to require overslot deals (Carson Sands, Justin Steele, Jordan Brink) appear to be in Mesa, but the details of their agreements remain a mystery.

Under the current CBA guidelines, a team’s signing bonus pool is well known to everyone. Slot values are assigned to the first 10 picks, and the team can exceed the combined value of those slots by up to 5%  without losing any future draft picks. Teams have an incentive to save money where they can and use those savings to sign picks from after the 10th round, where the slot value is only $100,000, or on difficult signs in the first 10 rounds.

The end result of all this is that when signing bonus information starts to leak out, players have a very good idea of how much money is available to them. Typically, this doesn’t make much difference, since teams agree on the framework of a deal with players in the top 10 rounds before drafting them, and most of the tough later-round picks are unlikely to sign for any reasonable amount of savings that a team could accrue. There are exceptions. The notable example is Kevin Gausman, who agreed with Orioles two years ago after waiting until the last minute and extracting every available dollar. If a team could suppress all signing bonus information, it would take away significant leverage from draftees still negotiating. The Cubs, for example, have an interest in keeping Dylan Cease from knowing how much money they have available if they intend to make a run at one of their highly-regarded later round picks.

Ultimately, it’s a losing battle, of course. Agent aren’t exactly introverts, and I strongly suspect that some reporters have contacts in the league offices. The Cubs might be able to convince some agents to stay quiet, but if they want to field an Arizona Rookie League team this coming Saturday, they are going to have to fax the newly-signed contracts to the league. The signing deadline for draftees isn’t until July 18th, so players win in the waiting game. Still, it will be interesting to see if the team moves as quickly as possible to sign as many as they can from the class prior to information leaking out this week.