Cubs 4, Nats 9

OSS: Cubs bullpen in shambles (again) as Nats make late comeback

Three up:

Willson Contreras smacked two solo homers bringing his total to 21. His wOBA is up to .369. His ISO is 45 points better than last year.
Jon Lester pitched a good game until running into trouble in the 7th. Prior to the 7th, Lester had 7 Ks through 6 while giving up only 4 baserunners and 1 run.
Um, I guess Jason Heyward? Heyward went 3-4 with a double. He did get picked off in the 6th with Lester at the dish.

Three down:

Someone needs to check on Carl Edwards, Jr. In 3 appearances in August, he's given up 7 runs over 1.2 innings. He's struck out just 1 of the 15 batters he's faced. Watching him pitch, he is grooving pitches right down Main Street or it's not even close to the zone. He's completely lost command.
Joe left Lester in to bat for himself in the bottom of the 6th with runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out. Heyward was TOOTBLAN'd and Lester struckout. Lester was replaced the next half inning after giving up 3 hits and 2 runs. Joe is still figuring out how to coach a National League team after 2.5+ seasons.
Ian Happ went 1-4 with 2 Ks. He has 1 HR in the last 30 days. His OPS has dropped 60+ points in the same timespan.

Next up: Cubs travel to San Francisco (9:05 pm CST) just in time since I think if they continued to play good team they'd drop to 2nd place in the division. Unfortunately, we will be listening to the ESPN broadcast tonight. Jake Arrieta (3.88 ERA) takes on Matt Moore (5.80 ERA).

Cubs 7, White Sox 2

OSS: A most incredibly frustrating 5 run win.

Three up:

Willson Contreras might be the best player on this team. He hit another homer, his 7th of July which brought his OPS up to .835. Combining his offense, defense, and rookie contract, I don't think there's a more valuable catcher in the game.
Ben Zobrist is trying to find himself out of a season long slump and went 3-4 with 2 doubles.
Carl Edwards, Jr. was nails taking over for John Lackey with men on 2nd and 3rd in the 5th. He got out of the jam and holding the 2 inherited runners, culiminating with a swinging strikeout to Jose Abreu.

~~Three~~ Six down:

Cubs hitters struck out 17 (!) times, 11 coming from Carlos Rodon in his 4 innings of work. Yes, of Rodon's 12 outs, 11 came by way of strikeout.
Lance Barksdale has a terrible game behind the plate. His zone was all over the place for both teams. He then didn't issue a warning after Lackey hit his 4th batter of the game in 5 innings and 3rd HBP in a row in the 5th. With no warning issued, Chris Beck retaliated on his second pitch hitting Ian Happ. It took 5 HBP for Barksdale to issue a warning. Of his strike calling duties, his worst came on Bryant's called strike three which culiminated in Bryant getting tossed:

Call hurts #Cubs Strike 3 should be ball 3 Bot 4 Rodon vs Bryant 2% call same 4.4in from edge

3:52 PM – 25 Jul 2017
Kris Bryant took home a golden sombrero prior to getting tossed and hitting the showers early. He also took a nasty foul ball off his right knee that kept him down a good 3-4 minutes before being ready to get back in the batter's box.
One-uping Bryant, Javier Baez took home the palladium (rhodium? diamond?) sombrero going 0-5 with 5 Ks.
John Lackey continued doing 2017 John Lackey things. He allowed 11 baserunners in 5+ innings and somehow only gave up 2 runs. He hit 4 batters on the day, including 3 in the 5th alone.
Lackey came up to bat in the bottom of the 5th just after getting out of his bases loaded via HBP jam. There were two runners on with two outs after Rick Renteria intentionally walked Addison Russell. Joe kept Lackey in to hit for himself despite the scoring opportunity and high likelihood that Lackey wouldn't get through the following half inning. Lackey grounded out to end the frame, gave up a single and double and was promptly pulled without recording an out in the 6th. Touche Joe.

Next up: The teams switch sides as the series goes to Guarantee Rate Field (dying laughing) for a two game set. Jake Arrieta takes on James Shields today to see if either pitcher can go back in time to 2015.

Counterpoint: It’s OK to Root for Chapman to Be Good at Baseball

From the comments, the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman is pretty polarizing. I, in fact, was part of that camp until I looked more into what did/didn’t happen and tried to think about how much it all matters to us as fans of a baseball team. Myles wrote up his take on Chapman from a baseball and personal perspective. I’ll leave out the baseball side of things. If you want to read something positive baseball-wise, head over to BN. If you want something negative, read the comments from Sunday/Monday.

First off, headlines often shape our opinion. To be honest, I read the headlines and tweets. I didn’t go full in depth of the allegations, which shame on me. Well maybe not shame of me, frankly I don’t have time to read into everything on every player. In case you’ve been under a rock, athletes get in trouble quite often. Let’s check out the headlines from December.

Yahoo Sports: Police report: Aroldis Chapman allegedly fired gunshots, ‘choked’ girlfriend in domestic incident
USA Today: Police report: Reds’ Aroldis Chapman involved in domestic incident
TMZ: AROLDIS CHAPMAN’S GF POLICE PHOTOS Of Alleged Choking Aftermath
Bob Nightengale: Aroldis Chapman now a toxic asset to many MLB clubs

That sounds pretty bad. Choked. Domestic violence. Gunshots. Toxic.

Arguably the best time to get facts are at the time of the incident. Stories can change. To summarize the incident based on Chapman, the victim, and eyewitness comments. The victim took Chapman’s phone into a private bathroom. The victim found a text from a woman. The victim confronted Chapman about it. Verbal confrontation led to Chapman putting his hands on the victim’s throat (not strangling) and pushed her away. The victim fell. The victim’s brother tackled Chapman. Chapman still angry, went to his detached garage away from the guests and family at his house and fired 8 rounds.

Domestic violence is a serious issue. Nobody should make light of it. Chapman grabbed and pushed his girl friend and discharged a firearm near her. It’s threatening and intimidating. However, everything needs context. Chapman’s girlfriend wasn’t bruised or bloodied (check out the TMZ link above). No one was injured. No one was arrested. No one went to the hospital. No criminal or civil charges were filed. Because of Chapman’s profession and how good he is at his profession, this was brought to the limelight. The police were only forced to do a criminal investigation when the news broke in December, over a month after the incident. If this happened to a normal couple, it wouldn’t make the news.

I’m not trying to defend Aroldis Chapman here. He’s wrong, he admitted as such.

Sports are for entertainment. We marvel in the athletic feats human beings can do. I don’t feel shame rooting for him to succeed. I don’t recall those around here getting this upset when Starlin Castro was being investigated for sexual assault. Aroldis Chapman is good at sports. He will help the Chicago Cubs win baseball games. It’s reasonable to be on either side of this debate. It’s OK to have this inhibit your ability to enjoy Chicago Cubs games. It’s OK for you to root for him to strike out ever batter he faces in 2016. He might be a bad person, but we don’t have to buy his jersey.

Better Know a Cub: Mike Montgomery, LHP

Today’s an off day and what better way to spend it then discussing the recent trade between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners. The Cubs sent off 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach and RHP Paul Blackburn in return for LHP Mike Montgomery and RHP Jordan Pries.

We’ll spend this post focusing on the more prominent name in Montgomery. Mike was drafted out of high school in the supplemental round (36th overall) of the 2008 draft when the Royals lost free agent David Riske to the Brewers (side note: Riske went on to give up 41 runs in 66.2 innings with the Brewers before getting run out of baseball).

Mike progressed quickly through the minors reaching AA by age 20 and AAA by age 21. Here’s how the prospect world viewed him during the those years:

Baseball America:
Pre-2010: Rated #39 Prospect
Pre-2011: Rated #19 Prospect
Pre-2012: Rated #23 Prospect

Prospect Ratings by MLB.com:
Pre-2012: Rated #31 Prospect

Prospect Ratings by BaseballProspectus.com:
Pre-2010: Rated #36 Prospect
Pre-2011: Rated #21 Prospect

Montgomery dominated the low minors. While Mike still progressed to AA and AAA, his FIP skyrocketed as he rose through the Royals system. He posted a 4.88 FIP in AAA in 2011 with his K/9 down to 7.71 and BB/9 jumped to 4.12 where we was previously around 8 K/9 and 2 BB/9.

That trend continued in 2012 and the Royals traded him along with Jake Odorizzi and Will Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays for Wade Davis and James Shields. 2013 wasn’t much better in the Rays organization, but things started to turn around a little bit.

Year	WHIP	ERA	K/9	BB/9
2012	1.624	6.07	6.7	3.8
2013	1.457	4.83	6.7	3.9
2014	1.310	4.29	7.0	3.4
2015	1.194	4.13	8.0	2.6

*I’d have normally done FIP but BR does have FIP for the MiLB and FG doesn’t summarize by year.

Here’s what Sickels had to say when he saw him back in 2011 (the first year he started to struggle):

In that inning, Montgomery’s fastball was 90-92 MPH, thrown high in the zone with little movement. His slider was flat, and he was telegraphing his curveball; you could tell it was going to be the curve before he released it. He was fooling nobody, his location was off, and he gave up the four runs. However, in the second inning, and for the rest of the game, he looked like a different pitcher. His fastball kicked up to 91-93, with life low in the strike zone. His slider got much sharper, he did a better job selling the curveball, and he mixed in some solid changeups.

For a bigger summation of various scouting reports, the Royals Review blog over at SB Nation did a good job here.

Prior to 2015 the Rays traded Montgomery to the Mariners for RHP Erasmo Ramirez. He broke into the majors in 2015 starting 16 games with a 4.67 FIP. The Mariners put him in the bullpen in 2016 where he’s had much better success to the tune of 7.88 K/9 | 2.63 BB/9 | 3.20 FIP. Specifically, he has a .241 wOBA against left handed batters so far in 20 innings and 78 batters faced.

Baseball America rated his changeup the best in the Royals system in 2011 and 2012. However, so far in 2016 his changeup usage is down to 9.1% compared to 20.4% in his 16 major league starts in 2015. He changeup in 2015 was actually his worst pitch in 2015 with a -3.1 runs above average. He’s throwing more fastballs and curveballs with fewer cutters and changeups. He fastball velocity is up to 93.4 compared to 90.9 as a starter.

This is all to say, well, I have no freaking clue what to expect for him. From the scouting reports I’ve read, no one can put a finger on why Montgomery struggled for years. He doesn’t have an injury history. I’m sure Chris Bosio will get his hands on him and hopefully do his magic. I don’t think he will be Clayton Richard bad which is a plus. He does have some upside and the pedigree. Don’t forget that not too long ago Andrew Miller was a failed starting pitcher. Crazier things have happened.

Cubs Hot Stove 7.18.2016

With the deadline looming less than two weeks from today, the Cubs rumors are heating up. Theo and Jed Hoyer are almost assuredly going to make some kind of roster moves to improve the team. We’ve discussed in the comments quite extensively Andrew Miller and what we would/wouldn’t like to give up. Here are some updates:

Andrew Miller is still the Cubs number 1 target, according to George King of the New York Post
- Early rumors had the Yankees wanting injured C/LF Kyle Schwarber. I think we’d all be shocked for Theo to part with Schwarber for a reliever with two years left on his deal
- Yankees brass are reportedly still deciding what do at this deadline with an aging veteran squad. Cubs have plenty of positional talent to get a deal done should the Yankees not find another suitor willing to give up a big prospect
- Cubs are more willing to part with 3B Jeimer Candelario, according to Heyman
Theo wants to upgrade the club, but also wants to maintain flexibility and not make a deal no matter the cost, according to Bruce Levine.
Teams are scouting breakout prospect (and international bonus baby) Eloy Jimenez. Jimenez was signed during the same spending spree that landed Gleyber Torres. At the time, many had Jimenez as the top amateur player above Torres. Look for Jimenez to be on some top 100 mid-season propect lists.
Dmick will happy to hear that the Cubs have scouted A’s OF Josh Reddick, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- Reddick is a pure rental as he becomes a FA after the season
Cubs have also scouted LHP Rich Hill (yes that Rich Hill)

It’s generally thought that Cubs need to upgrade their bullpen (loogy and set up), left field, and/or a top tier starter. What do you want them to upgrade the most?

2016 Steamer Projections: 100 Wins?

Well. That sure was fun. Although the Theo & Jed may not be done swinging deals yet (rumors include trading for a cost controlled, young starter and/or a CF), we can take a look at how the New-Look-Cubs project for next season with the additions of Jason Heyward, John Lackey, Ben Zobrist, and Adam Warren.

First, a fun look at the top ten position players in fWAR according to Steamer:

Name	Team	Off	Def	WAR
Mike Trout	Angels	61.6	3.3	9.2
Bryce Harper	Nationals	49.5	-6	6.8
Josh Donaldson	Blue Jays	23.9	10.1	5.9
Giancarlo Stanton	Marlins	39.9	-4.7	5.9
Manny Machado	Orioles	18.7	14.2	5.8
Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	37.1	-3.6	5.7
Kris Bryant	Cubs	29.2	3.1	5.6
Paul Goldschmidt	Diamondbacks	35.6	-6.6	5.2
Anthony Rizzo	Cubs	31.9	-4.5	5.1
Jason Heyward	Cubs	19.6	5.7	4.8

That's three Cubs position players that are projected to be in the top 10 in 2016 fWAR. Quite impressive. Jake Arrieta also comes in at #5 for pitcher WAR projections.

Now let's take a look at the projections for the all the Cubs currently rostered.

Name	PA	Off	Def	WAR
Anthony Rizzo	657	31.9	-4.5	5.1
Kris Bryant	651	29.2	3.1	5.6
Jason Heyward	648	19.6	5.7	4.8
Ben Zobrist	621	10.4	1.8	3.3
Jorge Soler	520	4.4	-9.3	1.2
Kyle Schwarber	501	14.8	-6	2.6
Addison Russell	501	-4.7	8.9	2.1
Miguel Montero	412	-4.3	9	1.9
Chris Coghlan	283	-1.1	-3.1	0.5
Javier Baez	273	1.7	-0.1	1.1
Tommy La Stella	156	-0.4	-2.4	0.2
David Ross	151	-7.9	3.4	0
Brendan Ryan	141	-8	2.5	-0.1
Arismendy Alcantara	90	-1.7	0.3	0.1
Christian Villanueva	70	-1.3	-1.4	-0.1
Matt Szczur	47	-1.3	-1	-0.1
Willson Contreras	13	-0.2	0.3	0.1
TOTAL				28.3

Name	IP	ERA	FIP	WAR
Jake Arrieta	208	2.93	2.93	5.2
Jon Lester	204	3.15	3.22	4.4
John Lackey	193	3.67	3.72	2.9
Kyle Hendricks	166	3.49	3.61	2.7
Jason Hammel	157	3.74	3.80	2.2
Pedro Strop	65	3.06	3.14	0.8
Hector Rondon	65	3.13	3.22	0.7
Travis Wood	63	3.36	3.85	0.4
Justin Grimm	55	3.03	3.12	0.7
Trevor Cahill	55	3.53	3.58	0.4
Adam Warren	40	3.06	3.26	0.4
Neil Ramirez	35	3.39	3.59	0.2
Clayton Richard	30	3.57	3.86	0.1
Rex Brothers	25	3.96	3.99	0
Yoervis Medina	20	3.96	4.05	0
Zac Rosscup	15	3.35	3.57	0.1
Spencer Patton	10	3.34	3.40	0.1
Pierce Johnson	10	3.67	3.82	0
Andury Acevedo	10	4.24	4.39	0
Carl Edwards	9	4.22	4.16	0.1
Eric Jokisch	9	4.12	4.28	0.1
Dallas Beeler	9	4.30	4.45	0.1
TOTAL				21.6

The projected "true talent level" of the 2016 Chicago Cubs is 49.9 wins above replacement. A replacement level team is 47.7 wins. Put those numbers together and Steamer projects the currently-as-built Cubs to win 97.6 games.

They will be a popular pick by most baseball pundits to win the NL Central and 2016 World Series. A lot can still go wrong, but it looks like 2016 will be a very competitive year on the North Side. By pretty much all our reactions to the Jason Heyward signing, it was a huge get for the Cubs not only by addition, but subtraction from the Cardinals. I'm sure many of your agree with me, but on paper the 2016 Cubs will be the best Cubs team of my lifetime. I'm just glad that we finally have an owner and leadership that didn't cave into the pressure (and poorly written essays) of fans and instead followed their process. Get excited ladies and gentlemen.

Winter Meetings 12/7 through 12/10

The Winter Meetings start today. This year, the Winter Meetings are in Nashville. Nashville is on Central time so expect any news to drop during more normal hours of the day than last year. The hot stove is already cooking and quite a few rumors have already begun in regards to your Chicago Cubs.

What happened since the last update?

Zack Grienke signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks for 6 years $206 million.

David Price signed with the Boston Red Sox for 7 years $217 million with a opt out clause.

The Cubs signed John Lackey for 2 years $32 million (and lost their first round draft pick).

Jeff Samardzija signed with the San Francisco Giants for 5 years $90 million.

The Cubs claimed another reliever off waivers by the name of Edgar Olmos.

Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda was posted by his team and will be available to sign with an MLB team for the 2016 season.

Hot Stove

The Cubs are apparently shopping Javier Baez and trying him out in Center Field at the same time.

The Cubs are apparently looking to acquire a "top closer" because, apparently, the bullpen is the biggest weakness on this team.

With just Johnny Cueto left of the top free agent arms, the Cubs free agent talk seems to have died down with the exception of being linked to Wei-Yin Chen.

What to expect this week

Here's a link to all the transactions made during the Winter Meetings 2014. Expect tons of rumors featuring Mystery Team and a few significant trades (Cubs or otherwise). The Rule 5 draft will be on Thursday 12/10. I believe the Cubs will lose at least 2 players to the draft this year, including pitcher Corey Black.

Once the Cubs stop claiming every reliever, I'd look for some player profiles on the newly acquired in the form of Better Know a Cub. Remember those? That was a good time.

Other shyt

The Leftovers just concluded their second season on HBO. The show apparently is in danger of not getting renewed. If you are bored in the coming weeks, you can binge watch both seasons on HBO GO. While the first season was decent, this season was one of the great seasons in television drama. The show is written and directed by Lost creator Damon Lindelof. I'm not a Lost fan, but apparently that was a popular show people recently enjoyed. I'll say that The Leftovers is my favorite drama since Breaking Bad.

Go watch it. Or don't. I can't tell you what to do.

Cubs Offseason Update

Moar Awardz

Cubs bring home the hardware

Cy Young – Jake Arrieta (169); Zack Greinke (147); Clayton Kershaw (101)
Rookie of the Year – Kris Bryant (150, unanimous); Matt Duffy (70); Jung Ho Kang (28)
Manager of the Year – Joe Maddon (124); Mike Matheny (87); Terry Collins (49)
Esurance MLB Awards
- Best Starting Pitcher: Jake Arrieta
- Best Rookie: Kris Bryant
- Best Breakout Player: Jake Arrieta
- Best Fan Catch
Players Choice Awards – Oustanding Rookie: Kris Bryant

Relief Pitchers, Relief Pitchers, and More Relief Pitchers

The Cubs have added 4 relief pitchers to their 40 man roster through waivers, signings, and a trade. They are:

Ryan Cook (11/6/15) claimed off waivers from Red Sox
Andury Acevedo (11/18/15) signed
Jack Leathersich (11/19/15) claimed off waivers from Mets
Rex Brothers (11/25/15) acquired for LHP Wander Cabrera

The Cubs have 14 relief pitchers on the 40 man roster.

Rule 5 Eligible Players

The Cubs protected 4 players from the Rule 5 draft: Jeimer Candelario, Dan Vogelbach, Willson Contreras, and Pierce Johnson. For the full list, visit AZ Phil. I also wrote a piece on some of the players left unprotected here.

Rumors & Signings Around the League

The Tigers signed Jordan Zimmerman for 5 years $110 million pending a physical. That's an AAV of $22 million. Zimmerman is considered the 3rd or 4th best starting pitcher available on the Free Agent market. The Tigers will forfeit their 2nd round pick as their first round pick is top 9 protected.
Johnny Cueto reportedly turned down an offer from the Arizona Diamondbacks of 6 years $120 million.
J.A. Happ signed with the Toronto Blue Jays for 3 years $36 million.
Colby Rasmus & Matt Wieters surprisingly accepted a 1 year Qualifying Offer for $15.8 million.
The heaviest speculation so far is that the Cubs are in on Alex Gordon and John Lackey, write Peter Gammons.
Paul Sullivan, noted hobbit, says the Cubs are interested in an F7 reunion. Phil Rogers reported that the two met on 11/18/15.
There's also been unnamed sources so far linking the Cubs to Jackie Bradley Jr, Denard Span, Tyson Ross, Ben Zobrist, Mike Leake, and Jason Heyward.

Important Dates

Winter Meetings: 12/7 through 12/10
Rule 5 Draft: 12/10

The 40 Man Roster & Rule 5 Draft – Part 2

Last post, we looked at the 40 man roster to try to see how many spots on the 40 man would be available. My best guess is that the 40 man would be reduced to 34 players, with as few as 29 players if the Cubs didn't sign any Free Agents prior to the draft.

Using my initial estimate however, that gives us 6 spots to protect players that are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft, which is held on the last day of Winter Meetings each year (12/10/15). The Cubs have until 11/20 to add players to the 40-man roster. Any players that are not added by that date will be eligible to be selected in the draft.

For the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft, 14 players were taken in 2014. 9 players were taken in the 2013 draft. Of the 23 players taken in those two drafts, 16 of them were pitchers. History tells us that teams believe pitchers have an easier transition to the majors than hitters do and teams tend to protect hitters that are in the upper minors. The Cubs lost LHP Andrew McKirahan to the Miami Marlins last year. McKirahan was then selected off waivers by the Braves and has been with the Braves since.

The Cubs lost two players in the minor league phase last year – OF Rock Shoulders and C Luis Flores. Both those players are still non-prospects. All 30 teams selected a player during the AAA minor league phase in 2014. Players taken in the minor league phase will not normally come back to bite you. An exception, however, was ex-Cub Justin Bour who hit 23 HRs for the Miami Marlins this year when he was selected in 2013 in the AAA phase of the draft.

Here are some notable Rule 5 Eligible players (h/t AZ Phil at The Cub Reporter)

John Andreoli, OF
Pedro Araujo, RHP
Jeffrey Baez, OF
Corey Black, RHP
Jeimer Candelario, INF
Josh Conway, RHP
Taylor Davis, C
Shawon Dunston Jr, OF
P. J. Francescon, RHP
Michael Heesch, LHP
Michael Jensen, RHP
Pierce Johnson, RHP
Jonathan Martinez, RHP
Yoanner Negrin, RHP
Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP
James Pugliese, RHP
Bijan Rademacher, OF
Tayler Scott, RHP
Daury Torrez, RHP
Dan Vogelbach, 1B
Willson Contreras, C
Starling Peralta, RHP
Logan Watkins, 2B/UTIL

Locks to be protected:

Jeimer Candelario, INF

Candelario has been considered a top prospect in the Cubs system for the last 3 years or so. Reports are that he plays a passable 3B but will likely move to 1B or the corner OF in the majors. In 2015, Candelario slashed .277/.339/.431 across A+ and AA. In his promotion to AA, he had a wOBA of .389 through 182 PAs. Candelario will most likely open 2016 in AA.

Dan Vogelbach, 1B

It has been talked about a lot, but if Dan Vogelbach isn’t traded, he’ll be protected. Vogelbach was a 2^nd round pick in 2011 and has produced with the bat at each level. He’s a DH. You really can’t justify 1B anymore unless you’re OK with Pedro Alvarez-level defense there. Since Vogelbach slimmed down after 2012, his power went with it. Still, he’s produced a wOBA over .354 at every stop thanks to great contact and walk skills.

Pierce Johnson, RHP

Johnson was the supplemental pick from the 2012 draft. He has consistently shown up in the Cubs Top 10 prospects for years. Johnson has had injuries over the years that have stalled his development. Dmick will be the first to tell you that his K rate leaves a lot to be desired. I’m going to defer to scouting reports that he has two plus pitches, but needs to work on control. Chris Bosio mentioned earlier this year not to look much into the numbers for guys in the minors because some players are working on specific skills, rather than results. Johnson would seem to be one of those guys they’re talking about.

Willson Contreras, C

Contreras is the Cubs breakout prospect from 2015. Contreras had a .333/.413/.478 slash at AA this year good for a .413 wOBA (!). That earned his Cubs Minor League POTY honors. He was signed as a 16 year old out of Venezuela which makes him a 6 year minor league free agent. Contreras is said to be solid, if unspectacular, behind the plate. This is your projected catcher of the future. He's currently in the AFL getting extra reps.

Some other guys

John Andreoli, OF

Andreoli is a 2011 draft pick in the 17^th round. Since then, he’s continued to move up the system slowly. After a brutal 2014 campaign, he rebounded nicely for a .352 wOBA in 2015. He is a threat on the bases and could be the 5^th OF-er of the future if the FO is ready to move on from Matt Szczur.

Jeffrey Baez, OF

Baez is an international signee from 2011 out of Venezuela. He’s a guy that has needed multiple seasons at each level to move up. He’s someone to watch in the AA and AAA phases of the Rule 5, as he spent all of 5 games at A+. Baez is a threat on the bases and ranked as the 25^th best prospect by Fangraphs back in 2014.

Corey Black, RHP

Black was acquired from the Yankees in the Alfonso Soriano trade. Black is shorter than a typical starter (5’11’’) and since the day he was acquired it was assumed he would transition to the bullpen. Black finally made that transition this year and it hasn’t gone swimmingly to say the least. Still, he gets strikeouts and the FO seems to think highly of him. He’s currently in the AFL, presumably for the FO to get more looks at him before deciding on his 40-man candidacy.

Bijan Rademacher, OF

Rademacher was another 2012 draft product in the 13th round. He's a lefty bat with a career 18% K rate and 8% walk rate with both those trending in a positive direction. One downside is that he is a light hitting corner outfielder. However his high contact rate and recent success could bait some team to take him in hopes of becoming a decent 4th/5th OFer.

Josh Conway, RHP

Conway is a 4th round pick in 2012, however he didn't debut until 2014 due to Tommy John surgery. Since then, he's outperformed his peripherals in the 'pen over 2014 & 2015, pitching a combined 88 innings across A & A+ to a tune of 2.52 ERA and 3.70 FIP. He seems like a guy who some team might take with the renowned "David Patton" disease.

Taylor Davis, C

This is an interesting one, as he seems like a guy in the high minors with better bat skills than Taylor Teagarden. Davis was pretty much a non-prospect until 2014. Since then over two seasons and 512 PAs, he's had a wOBA over .360 across AA & AAA. He's 25, turning 26. If he's not protected, that should tell you if the FO thinks his recent success will translate to the bigs. Another consideration is that breakout catching prospect & Cubs Minor League POTY Willson Contreras is in AA knocking on the door to AAA.

Daury Torrez, RHP

Torrez is a big righty out of the Dominican Republic. Currently, he doesn't miss many bats, but he gets by with a miniscule walk rate and WHIP. He's been a starter, logging 134.1 innings in 2015. Torrez is still working his way up, reaching only A+ last year. As a starter, he works 92-94 with his fastball. This might be a case of someone taking a risk on him hoping that ticks up to mid-90s out of the pen in the majors.

I'd guess the following get protected: Vogelbach, Contreras, Candelario, Johnson, Black, Rademacher, & Andreoli. If the Cubs are short on 40 man spots, players that will have value in a trade and could open up more spots include Dan Vogelbach, Christian Villaneuva, & Arismendy Alcantara.

Let me know who you would protect. Or don't, I can't tell you what to do.

The 40 Man Roster & Rule 5 Draft – Part 1

Today, we will look at the 40 man roster in relation to how many spots with be available to protect Rule 5 eligible players in the Cubs minor league system.

There are two phases of the Rule 5 draft – the major league phase & the minor league phase. The major league phase is 1 round, where each team will be able to make a selection. It is very common for a team to select a player for another team and trade that player in return for cash. The Cubs did this last year. Players selected in the major league phase must be kept on the 25-man active roster the entire year or they will be offered back to the original team. The exception is that these players can be kept on the disabled list if they are injured (a la David Patton).

After the major league phase, there are two rounds to the minor league phase. All 30 teams will be eligible to select a player in the AAA and AA phase. Here's a table to show which players are eligible to be selected in which phase of the draft. Almost all teams normally select a player in the AAA phase and hardly any teams select a player in the AA phase. This is because if a player isn't protected from the AA phase, they are basically not considered one of the top 115 players in the organization.

	40 Man	AAA	AA	<= A+
ML Phase	X	eligible	eligible	eligible
AAA Phase	X	X	eligible	eligible
AA Phase	X	X	X	eligible

Before looking at who will be protected, we need to see (and guess) how many spots will be available.

Cubs Current 40 Man Roster (italicized players are whom I believe were not on the active 25-man roster on the last day of the regular season)

Pitchers

Jake Arrieta
Dallas Beeler
Carl Edwards Jr.
Justin Grimm
Jason Hammel
Kyle Hendricks
Eric Jokisch
Jon Lester
Yoervis Medina
Neil Ramirez
Clayton Richard
Hector Rondon
Zac Rosscup
Pedro Strop
Travis Wood

Catchers

Miguel Montero
David Ross

Infielders

Arismendy Alcantara
Javier Baez
Kris Bryant
Starlin Castro
Tommy La Stella
Anthony Rizzo
Addison Russell
Christian Villanueva

Outfielders

Chris Coghlan
Kyle Schwarber
Jorge Soler
Matt Szczur

Right now, the Cubs 40 man roster sits at 29. Here are Cubs players that elected Free Agency:

– Dan Haren
– Jason Motte
– Fernando Rodney
– Chris Denorfia
– Dexter Fowler
– Austin Jackson
– Quintin Berry
– Jonathan Herrera
– Trevor Cahill
– Tommy Hunter
– Taylor Teagarden (outrighted to Iowa)

Here's what I'm including in my 40-man estimate:
+ Trevor Cahill
+ Tommy Hunter
+ [SP FA acquisition] + [RP FA acquisition] + [CF FA acquisition]

With that estimate, the Cubs 40 man would be at 34. One might think "why don't they just get verbal agreements with players and not sign them until after the draft to allow maximum spots for protecting players?" To that point, once a player is added to the 40 man roster, they have to pass through irrevocable waivers to be sent back down to the minors. Any team can claim that player and put them on their 40 man roster. It's a better risk to allow a player to be drafted in the Rule 5 where they have to remain on the 25 man roster than to try to get a player through waivers of all 30 teams.

Tomorrow (or Thursday, it could either way), we'll look at the players eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.