Author: myles

The Journeymen of Tomorrow: Iowa (AAA) and Tennessee (AA) Rosters

The minor league season begins in earnest tomorrow, and Obstructed View is going to do better than ever at covering it. DJ had been coverin the minor leagues here in the past and due to no fault of his own, dmick89 and myself have taken it over. Truthfully, dmick89 finds little else to talk about, so he felt he need to do this or risk not contributing enough. We'll have previews of each roster today (two now and two later). We'll also be posting recaps each day; I'm covering the weekends, and dmick89 is taking the weekday beat.

Iowa Cubs

2012 Record: 53-87

2012 RS/RA: 613/711

Graduates: Anthony Rizzo, Welington Castillo, Steve Clevenger, Dave Sappelt

The 2012 Iowa Cubs were bad, and the 2013 Cubs don't figure to be a great deal better. Still, there are a few intriguing names to be had here, and the pitching specifically is a lot higher quality than last year. The Cubs should graduate a few players to the majors this year, but probably no superstars.

  Legit Prospect? Kinda-sorta? Dice Roll? Org Filler?
Pitchers        
RHP Esmailin Caridad No No No Yes
RHP Yoanner Negrin No Yes    
LHP Chris Rusin No Yes    
LHP Brooks Raley No Yes    
RHP Nick Struck Yes      
RHP Rafael Dolis No Yes    
RHP Barret Loux No Yes    
RHP Casey Coleman No Yes    
RHP Blake Parker No Yes    
RHP Jensen Lewis No No Yes  
RHP Cory Wade No No Yes  
RHP Zach Putnam No Yes    
RHP Jaye Chapman No Yes    
RHP Drew Carpenter No Yes    
Catchers        
J.C. Boscan (R) No No No Yes
Luis Flores (R) No No No Yes
Infielders        
Wes Darvill (L) No No No Yes
Tim Torres (S) No No No Yes
Josh Vitters (R) Yes      
Logan Watkins (L) Yes      
Brad Nelson (L) No No No Yes
Edwin Maysonet (R) No No No Yes
Outfielders        
Ty Wright (R) No No No Yes
Brett Jackson (L) Yes      
Darnell McDonald (R) No No No Yes
Brian Bogusevic (L) No No No Yes
Ryan Sweeney (R) No Yes    

Esmailin Caridad has been a Cub seemingly forever. He's organizational filler who might get a cup of coffee again in his life, but his situation on the 40-man (he's not on it) makes that scenario very unlikely with the Cubs.

Yoanner Negrin is an enigma; he's very late to american professional baseball, but is at least a semi-prospect. He's supposedly a guy that can work in the low-90s with an array of pitches, but I'd imagine he's going to be a reliever for the Cubs if he makes it at all. He's 29 and starting his first real year as a minor leaguer; it's anyone's guess how he performs at AAA.

Chris Rusin is one of a pair of fringey lefties (Brooks Raley is the other one). I don't see him as more than a AAA arm for the majority of his career, and he's almost certainly the 40th man on the 40-man. If he is a Cub at the end of this season, I'll be mildly shocked.

Brooks Raley has a slight bit of upside on Rusin. He's a year younger with slightly better control. He's got another year to attempt to break in the back of the Cubs rotation, and he's got a fair chance to do so depending on his opportunities.

Nick Struck is a pretty underrated prospect. His only poor performances have come during his late-season promotions; other than that, he's been an age-appropriate prospect hat has generally met expectations. He isn't someone I think is going to make an impact in 2013, but if he performs well this year he could be a 3-4 for Chicago in 2014. 

Rafael Dolis might never get a handle on his slider. If he does, it's sublime, but he's like a worse version of Marmol so you can imagine how that is going to turn out.

Barret Loux had an interesting line last year. He went 14-1 with a 3.47 ERA. No doubt he was lucky, but he's an interesting test case to see if winning is an innate trait. As with Struck, a 2013 promotion seems unlikely unless the team is really gutted, but he's got potential to feature in the rotation as soon as 2014. All told, he's a solid return for Soto.

Casey Coleman is a fringey reliever at this point. He probably deserves a shot to stick in the bullpen, but is off the 40-man. We'll see if he gets an opportunity later this season.

I think I'm being charitable when I say that Blake Parker might sorta be a prospect. He had a good year in AAA last season, but he was 27 and it was his 5th season there. That sounds like AAAA to me.

Jensen Lewis was a savvy pickup at first glance, but he hasn't been effective for a couple years now. Still, there's a chance that he can contribute to the front-end of a bullpen in 2013, and no big loss otherwise.

Cory Wade is a reclamation project in the same vein. He was nuts for the Yankees in 2011, and equally bad in 2012. The problem with last year was basically entirely BABIP-driven, though. His peripherals were actually very good. I like Wade a lot, and it would be more surprising than not if he wasn't valuable for the Cubs last year (even if it's a Shawn Camp type of value). 

Zach Putnam is in the same boat as Casey Coleman and a hundred other relievers.

Jaye Chapman is slightly better than the Colemans and Putnams of the world by virtue of his live breaking ball. He can't pitch against lefties so he only has a future as a 7th inning type. 

Drew Carpenter's 3.38 ERA in AAA is way more impressive than it looks. The PCL is very hitter-friendly, and Las Vegas is where pitching goes to die. Sveum said he was next up as far as starters are concerned; I hope that's not the case, but it's hard to pitch that well in that park without at least some talent.

J.C. Boscan is your typical backup-backup catcher at AAA. If he sees time on the Cubs, we're a good bet to be in serious trouble. 

Luis Flores put up a .572 OPS as a 25 year backup in AA last year. 

Wes Darvill is the sacrifical lamb of the Epstein Regime. He's 21 next year, but hasn't shown anything approaching talent in his 4 years with the organization. He's here purely because of the numbers; he'll be sent down in short order. 

Tim Torres is what Wes Darvill sees when he looks 6 years into the future.

Josh Vitters is about on his last chance. He needs to field 3B adequately to have a chance to contribute in the major leagues; his bat barely plays at 3B and has no chance at 1B, which is his future should he not perform this year. I'm higher on Vitters than most, but even I realize that the success stories for a career like Vitters' are few and far between.

Logan Watkins would have been my pick to relieve Barney while he's on the DL, but instead the Cubs will wait to start his clock until next year, most likely. He's got a high floor and a relatively low ceiling; the comps to Todd Walker or Marco Scutaro seem pretty reasonable. Watkins is definitely one to watch this year. 

Brad Nelson is nothing but org. filler. He has 3379 PA in AAA in his lifetime.

Edwin Maysonet is a Cub killer, so we of course took him in after the season ended. He's exactly like Alberto Gonzalez in his complete non-descriptability.

Ty Wright never really made it. His upside is AAAA.

Brett Jackson has probably the most important season of any Cubs minor-leaguer. If he can cut down on his strikeouts, he can be a ML starter. If he doesn't, he's looking at a future as a 4th OF or worse. He'll be in Chicago probably as soon as one of the OFers are traded.

Darnell McDonald and Brian Bogusevic are just org filler. 

Ryan Sweeney is a late addition to the squad. He doesn't seem to have a great chance to break into Chicago unless a dude (Soriano) is traded sooner than the Cubs are comfortable having Jackson up for.

Tennessee Smokies

2012 Record: 68-72

2012 RS/RA: 595/615

2012's Smokies were a pretty average unit, and they look be the same this year. Logan Watkins and Nick Struck are the main departures, but the Smokies should be an exciting place to watch baseball in the second half of the year. Both Soler and Baez will realistically end up in Tennessee at some point, and Arismendy Alcantara could end up turning a lot of heads this season. Other than that, there are a few potential pitchers in Zych and Hendricks who are interesting, and Villanueva and Szczur are names to watch on the offensive side of the ball.

  Legit Prospect? Kinda-sorta? Dice Roll? Org Filler?
Pitchers        
RHP Kevin Rhoderick No Yes    
RHP Dae-Eun Rhee No No No Yes
RHP Tony Zych Yes      
RHP Frank Batista No Yes    
LHP Eric Jokisch No Yes    
RHP Brian Schlitter No No No Yes
LHP Zach Rosscup No No No Yes
RHP Alberto Cabrera No Yes    
RHP Marcus Hatley No No No Yes
RHP Dallas Beeler No No No Yes
RHP Kyle Hendricks Yes      
RHP Trey McNutt No Yes    
RHP A.J. Morris No No Yes  
Catchers        
Jair Fernandez (R) No No No Yes
Rafael Lopez (L) No No No Yes
Infielders        
Justin Bour (L) No Yes    
Elliot Soto (R) No No No Yes
Arismendy Alcantara (S) Yes      
Christian Villanueva (R) Yes      
Outfielders        
Rubi Silva (L) No No No Yes
Jae-Hoon Ha (R) No Yes    
Johermyn Chavez (R) No Yes    
Anthony Giansanti (R) No No No Yes
Jonathan Mota (R) No No No Yes
Matt Szczur (R) Yes      

Kevin Rhoderick is repeating AA for the second time. Drafted in the 9th in 2010, he hasn't really impressed in his 2 years with the organization. 

Dae-Eun Rhee is coming up on his 5th year in the organizations. He hasn't been particularly accomplished in any of them.

Tony Zych throws a 93-96 mph that he relied on to strikeout 9.4/9 last year. He's got true closer potential if he can harness his command just a touch more. He's got a promising future, and if he develops his mid-80's slider, look out.

Frank Batista did really well in AA last year, and I think he's just a numbers victim. He closed at Tennessee, but didn't overpower anyone. I'm not sure how he profiles moving forward (there's not a lot of literature on him), but he's got nothing left to prove at Tennessee.

Eric Jokisch has climbed the ladder and done everything he's need to. He took to starting well last year, and a good showing at Tennessee will do much to elevate his prospect status. Hopefully he regains some strikeouts; that's the only concern I've got with his line (6.5 K/9).

Brian Schlitter was claimed by the Yankees, and then the Phillies, in 2011. He was returned to the Cubs because he was damaged goods. He had a good season last year but he's 27 this year so it's anyone guess if he ever smells the majors. He's exclusively a mopup type at this point.

Zach Rosscup is just constantly injured. He can reclaim his status as a worthwhile prospect just as soon as he passes the 50 inning threshold in a season, which he has failed to do in any of his 4 seasons. When healthy, he's shown glimpses of being a solid lefty starter.

Alberto Cabrera is being stretch out into a starter, and then he'll be promoted to Iowa. That's not going to work because Cabrera doesn't really have a playable secondary pitch; I'd be happier if they just stuck him in the pen to see if he could just throw gas in the 8th or 9th. The Cubs have a hundred back-end options for the rotation, but only a few legitimate closer candidates. Cabrera is one, so why waste it?

Marcus Hatley really struggled with a midseason promotion to AAA last year. I'm not sure he's got enough control or stuff to really contribute past AA. 

Dallas Beeler struck out 70 in 136 innings at AA last year. That's all I really need to say about that.

Kyle Hendricks pitched 147.2 innings with the Daytona and Myrtle Beach (A+ TEX affiliate) squads last year. That's a lot of mileage for a 22-year old, but what's even more impressive that he only walked 18 people in that span, good for 1.1/9. He's going to start at AA this year, and I'm really excited to see if he can keep up his very impressive control. He's a dark-horse breakout candidate.

Trey McNutt is a busted prospect. Hopefully we works out in the bullpen, but I'm really doubting it. Honestly, he's still just 23, but he hasn't had a good season over A+ and that's generally due to the fact that AA rosters are making way more contact and getting way more hits. 

AJ Morris was a Gorzelanny return, but he's always been old for his level and that isn't changing here. He's 26 and he's never pitched above A+. 

Jair Fernandez is on his 4th system now. He's just an org catcher, for sure.

Rafael Lopez is another ultra-fringe guy. He's a 2011 draftee so he's got a leash, and there is literally no one in front of him or right behind him, so he could end up being a backup at some point. I'm not optimistic.

Justin Bour is only even a fringe prospect because he has had an OPS over .800 3 consecutive years. I'm being charitable, he can only play 1B, but he's got a shot to be a backup at some point…maybe? Honestly, I thought he would be assigned to AAA this year so the Cubs probably have a lower opinion than I did.

Elliot Soto is an afterthought, as many who can't outslug their OBP are.

Arismendy Alcantara could explode this year. He's adding power to his arsenal as he grows up (5'10", 160lbs, so he's filling out), and another cut in his strikeouts could put him solidly in global top 100 lists.

Christian Villanueva's star is fading across Cubdom. Jason Parks doesn't love his bat, and thinks he might just be a defense-first backup INF in the majors. Even if that's true, that's not the worst thing in the world. He's still 22 at AA, so he's got plenty of time left. 

Rubi Silva got on base 27.7% of the time as a 23-year old in AA last year. His career line is .290/.312/.402. He's a low-level Darwin Barney who doesn't play great defense. Are you getting the message?

Jae-Hoon Ha is apparently a defensive whiz…but he's getting moved off of CF. He hasn't shown the skills as of yet to bust out of AA (773 PA there), so I'm doubtful he'll ever be anything but a 5th OF, and I think the scouting might be incorrect re: defensive skills.

Johermyn Chavez is working on his 3rd organization now. I've heard he has real makeup issues, but I'm not certain that's true.  He looks like a good bet to stall out in AA, but I thought he looked ok in Spring Training, so I'm oddly optimistic. 

Anthony Giansanti is a nobody who can't OPS over .700 in a corner outfield position.

I have no idea what to say about Jonathan Mota. Interestingly, he's pitched at least 1 game in 4 different seasons, despite being a true utilityman. He's listed as an outfielder but has way more time at SS/2B. He turned it on last year (.867 OPS) after never putting up an OPS above .722 before that, but he also only received 81 PA. This season will, incredibly, be his 9th with the Cubs organization. That's a long time to never sniff the majors. 

Matt Szczur is just barely a real prospect. He's got to put together the tools at some point, because intangibles only get you so far. He's going to have every opportunity at AA to breakthrough, but he's in real danger of being passed in development by some of the more intriguing young outfield guys. 

DiPS Game Score

I've been tinkering around with a pitching statistic for starters, and I think I'm ready to share it. It's a new take on an old stat called Game Score.

Game Score was developed by Bill James to give a single number to a pitching performance that should tell you how they did. I like the stat; it bases everything around 50, and naturally caps at right around 100. Here is the formula:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (or 3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

Thanks to Baseball-Reference for the link.

While Game Score does give a pretty accurate guess as to how a pitcher did (the leaders yesterday were Shark and Kershaw at 86 each; Volquez' 24 brought up the rear), I had to distinct issues with it:

a) It does not penalize short outings. You can strikeout the first batter and end with 51 points, or go 6 innings, allow 3 runs, and end up with 46. 

b) It counts things that are out of the pitchers hands (earned runs, runs, and hits).

DiPS theory teaches us that hits come in more-or-less a random distribution that we can control only slightly. Thus, the pitcher's burden is just to get outs and reduced the number of balls in play or over the fence. It is with this in mind that I set to re-write Game Score.

First, I got the latest run expectancy matrix and calculated how many expected runs are saved, on average, by striking a player out (increasing outs by 1 with no station changes). The answer was .457. Then, I calculated the run expectancy of a walk (increasing the relevant stations by 1 with no out changes), and the value was .523. Lastly, I changed the bases-clearing, run-scoring change of the HR, and got a value of 1.77. I came to these conclusions:

A HR was roughly 3 times more valuable than a walk. A walk was slightly worse than a strikeout was good. The values roughly went like this: K – 3 points, BB – -4 points, HR – -12 points. This kind of makes sense: If you gave up a HR, then struck out the side, you had a bad inning, but not an awful one – at least you minimized the balls in play. Of course, it's possible you actually gave up 6 runs in that inning with a series of base hits, but that is somewhat attributable to luck. 

After that, I made a judgement call on how many points to give to outs. If a strikeout was worth 3 points, a regular out seemed to be worth 2 to me. This part could definitely be changed (and may be, to 3 points). 

The only thing left was to make sure that the average SP performance was roughly 50. I took my numbers and assigned the average performance last year to them (18 outs, 5 strikeouts, 2 walks, .68 HR). That came up as 35 points, so I added a baseline of 15 points.

The problem with this new stat is that there is no natural line to prevent a pitcher from getting over 100 points. Kerry Wood's 20-K CG SHO is 129 points, in this system. In my defense, I don't care so much about this. 

Which system is better? I'm not really sure. Today, I'm going to include every pitcher's game score under the old system and the new. You can decide for yourself which is better.

  Regular DiPS Delta STDEV
Kershaw 86 90 -4  
Samardzija 86 86 0  
F. Hernandez 80 81 -1  
Cueto 74 64 10  
Cain 71 71 0  
Sale 71 78 -7  
Chacin 67 49 18  
Kennedy 66 77 -11  
Verlander 66 58 8  
Weaver 66 55 11  
Anderson 63 59 4  
Niese 60 47 13  
Shields 58 57 1  
Burnett 54 63 -9  
Lester 54 58 -4  
Worley 46 56 -10  
Wainwright 42 69 -27  
Hudson 39 26 13  
Gallardo 37 26 11  
Hamels 37 20 17  
Sabathia 36 44 -8  
Volquez 24 33 -9  
  58.31818 57.59091 0.727273 11.17046

Obstructed View Season Predictions

Our long national nightmare is finally over! The Cubs play today at 1:35 ET, and at around 5:00 ET I will be drunk and the Cubs will be a game out of first place. Now that the season is here, I rounded up all of our contributors and asked around for predictions. Without further ado, let me present them!

  Berselius dmick89 AndCounting Josh GW Myles Aisley
NLC Reds Reds Reds Brewers Cardinals Reds Reds
NLE Nationals Nationals Braves Nationals Braves Nationals Braves
NLW Dodgers Giants Dodgers Dodgers Dodgers Dodgers Giants
WC1 Braves Cardinals Giants Cardinals Nationals Giants Nationals
WC2 Cardinals Dodgers Nationals Braves Reds Braves Dodgers
ALC Tigers Tigers Royals Tigers Tigers Tigers Tigers
ALE Rays Jays Jays Rays Jays Rays Rays
ALW Angels Rangers Athletics Rangers Rangers Angels Angels
WC1 Rangers Rays  Angels Yankees Angels Jays Rangers
WC2 Jays Angels Tigers Angels Rays Athletics Jays
NL Champ Nationals Cardinals Nationals Brewers Dodgers Giants Nationals
AL Champ Angels Tigers Royals Vacant Tigers Rays Tigers
WS Angels Tigers Royals Brewers Tigers Rays Nationals
Cubs Rec 63-99 75-87 77-85 Horrible Vacant 71-91 62-100
NL MVP Votto Votto Posey Harper Stanton McCutchen Heyward
AL MVP Trout Cano Longoria Longoria Fielder Trout Trout
NL Cy Kershaw Strasburg Halladay   Kershaw Kershaw Cain
AL Cy Verlander Verlander Verlander Verlander Price Price Price
Cubs' MVP Castro Camp Rizzo Lillibridge Rizzo Sappelt E. Jackson

Aisley's picks are forthcoming, he's busy performing up-to-the-minute analysis. 

Interesting things to note: 

There were no consensus division champions.

7 people chose 6 different WS champs; the only two-time selection was the Tigers. 

Verlander had 4 votes for Cy, Price had 3. Kershaw had 3 votes, Strasburg, Cain and Halladay one each.

The consensus (so far) playoff teams: Nationals, Dodgers, Tigers, Angels.

No MVP candidate had more than 3 votes (Trout). Longoria and Votto had 2.

Only Josh and Aisley has an NL team winning the WS.

Resident Optimist dmick89 is only second highest on the Cubs this year; AndCounting thinks the Cubs are winning 77 games!!!

 

Verlander. Got. Paid.

First, the details.

Verlander signed a 5-year, $140 million dollar extension today. It will pay him $28 million dollars a year in 2015 through 2019. There is a 2020 option at $22 million that will vest automatically (but the terms of how that could vest are unknown at the moment). Verlander was already signed at $20 million for this year and 2014; those values do not change.

This deal is oddly similar to the Hernandez one. In Hernandez' deal, the Mariners essentially extended Hernandez for 5 years at $134.5 million dollars. Hernandez was scheduled to make $19 million in 2013 and $20.5 million in 2014. Hernandez then makes around $26.5 million a year for the same timeframe as Verlander. 

I think this deal probably makes less sense for the Tigers than Hernandez' did (though Felix's deal apparently helped pace the market). They are essentially the same pitcher, with Verlander being more effective in the past few years while Hernandez was better earlier on. The problem is that Hernandez' deal goes from age-26 to age-33; two prime years and the start of the gradual tail. Verlander just added on age-32 to age-36; those are all decline years, no doubt about it. Compound the fact that Verlander already has 1553 innings on his arm (he's had 7 years in the majors and has put 9 years on his arm), and you've got a chance to look really, really foolish in 2016. 

All I've got to say is that Clayton Kershaw is going to get a ridiculous, ridiculous, RIDICULOUS amount of money.

 

Luis Valbuena: Not Very Good

In a few days, the Cubs will open regular season play with Luis Valbuena at 3B. Compared to the other options the Cubs have, he isn't that bad. Compared to other 3B, it's really bad.

The first thing I looked at when analyzing Valbuena's last season was to look at his BABIP. It was low last year, at .260. That gives you the impression he's bound to get luckier next season and regress to the mean…right? Unfortunately, that's not how it really works. Valbuena's career BABIP is .269. He's likely unlucky, but over 1109 PA you can start to be reasonably confident that he's never going to have an outstanding BABIP. He likely just makes poor contact; his true talent level is probably .280 to .290.

Even if he did have a BABIP of .300 last year, his line would translate (assuming his extra hits are seeing-eye singles) from .219/.310/.340 to .251/.338/.371. That's certainly a much better line, but still a poor one for a third baseman. .371 would be good for 34th among players with 200 more PA and 50 games at 3B, right behind Brandon Inge. We'd have to give him 3 more doubles (so 1/3 of his "found" hits) just to tie him with Brandon. His ISO is 32nd as well. He just doesn't have the bat to hack it at the corner.

It's not all bad for Luis. He can play 2b reasonably, and he can even play shortstop in a pinch. His bat is much more suited to play at 2B, where he doesn't need to hit the cover off the ball to be productive. Unfortunately, that's not where he's needed on the Cubs. Instead, he's a punchless threat that needs hit-luck just to be bad offensively (and that luck isn't all that likely to come: a .280 BABIP provides a translational .235/.324/.355) from a position that almost demands more power than that. Cubs fans have to hope that Lake takes a serious step forward and takes the position from Valbuena in the second half of 2013, because Luis is just not the answer at the hot corner. 

A side note on positional value adjustments:

I try to break the positions into 2 equal groups: offensive and defensive positions. The 4 positions up the middle of the infield (C, 2B, SS, CF) are way harder to field adequately. You can be bad at the plate and good on the field and still be average. In contrast, the outer positions (1B, 3B, LF, RF) are much easier to field, so the offensive burden is much greater. Even if you are league-average offensively, you're a below-average player if you field any of these positions (unless you are absolutely stellar in the field – even then, the amount of defensive value you can provide is limited). This is why Darwin Barney at 2B can be an adequate player with a .300 OBP while Valbuena at 3B would be a poor one even at a .338 OBP (Barney also plays sublime defense at 2B while Valbuena is merely good at 3B, and likely average to below-average at 2B).

This is also a useful tool in explaining why it's so good to have a player like Starlin Castro. The theoretically average team would have 4 good hitters and 4 bad ones, given how positions are. Castro is a good offensive player from the defensive spectrum, which is historically uncommon (CF are really good right now, historically. SS were up 10 years ago. This things ebb and flow). That allows us to add a threat that the average team won't have (or masks a weakness we might have from a traditional "power position"). DeJesus can also add that to our team if he can make it defensively in center (I don't think he can, but he'll get every chance to). Unfortunately, the Cubs squander that by taking a bath at 3B and RF, so we end up at even anyways…

Your moment in Yahoo Sports! stupidity

Can you point out the error in this assessment of Ohio State's Final Four chances? I'll give you a hint in bold.

Ohio State
Region: West
Who they beat: No. 15 Iona, No. 10 Iowa State
Odds of getting to the Final Four: 8/1
Why they can do it: They're now the favorite in this region after other high seeds such as No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 3 New Mexico lost during the first weekend. Guard Aaron Craft might be the nation's best defender.
Why they can't: The Buckeyes are sometimes too reliant on junior forward Deshaun Thomas for scoring. If he's not making shots, they can really struggle offensively.

So, you're saying that Ohio State is the favorite of the remaining 4 teams in this region to make the Final Four, so you put their odds at 8 to 1?

  

How bad was Josh Vitters last year?

Everyone knows that Josh Vitters was terrible at baseball in his limited time at the big league level in 2012. Just how bad was he?

In RE24 (min. 75 PA), Josh Vitters was the 17th worst offensive player in all of baseball last year, just above…Mark Buerhle. If he had 200 PA instead of just 109, he would have ran away with worst RE24 in the majors (everyone except Buerhle ahead of him had over 100 more plate appearance than Vitters.)

Better Know a Statistic: (K-BB)/PA

I have a confession to make. 

When I first fell headlong into baseball analysis, I kind of took K/BB as my pet statistic. I loved how it was essentially "luckless": the only things the pitcher couldn't control was the discipline of the batter and the strike zone of the umpire, the two things he can only understand (but never master). Not only was it good at explaining the two fundamental pitching statistics, it did it in a way that aped the GPA system in the American school system. If you had a 4.00 GPA, you were an excellent student: a 4.0 K/BB meant you were an excellent pitcher. 

After a while, though, I began to have my doubts. Is a pitcher that strikes out 9 per 9 innings and walks 3 in the same span really only half as good as the guy that strikes out 6 and walks 1? If we assume a normal BABIP (lets say .300 exactly), these two pitchers profile thusly (over a 27 out span):

Pitcher A: 9 strikeouts, 18 regular outs, 7.7 hits, 3 walks, 10.7 baserunners

Pitcher B: 6 strikeouts, 21 regular outs. 9 hits, 1 walk, 10 baserunners

Pitcher B has a 6 K/BB, but allows nearly as many baserunners as Pitcher A does. Not only do they allow baserunners at close enough a rate as makes no difference, Pitcher B actually allows more active baserunners. I'd expect Pitcher B to allow more runs per 27 outs than Pitcher A does. 

This sort of trickery is what allows Joe Blanton to accrue such gaudy K/BB totals while being a mediocre pitcher at best.

 
        K/BB                    
2005 Athletics 5.19 3.00 1.73 1.03 13.9 % 8.0 % .233 1.22 .248 75.3 % 83 105 4.43
2006 Athletics 4.96 2.69 1.84 0.79 12.5 % 6.8 % .304 1.54 .335 68.9 % 108 94 4.16
2007 Athletics 5.48 1.57 3.50 0.63 14.7 % 4.2 % .265 1.22 .299 68.0 % 90 81 3.50
2008 2 Teams 5.05 3.01 1.68 1.00 13.0 % 7.7 % .269 1.40 .290 68.4 % 110 106 4.52
2009 Phillies 7.51 2.72 2.76 1.38 19.5 % 7.1 % .257 1.32 .291 78.9 % 96 104 4.45
2010 Phillies (A) 9.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 33.3 % 0.0 % .000 0.00 .000 100.0 %     1.20
2010 Phillies (AA) 5.63 2.25 2.50 2.25 14.3 % 5.7 % .273 1.38 .269 73.2 %     5.95
2010 Phillies 6.87 2.20 3.12 1.38 17.5 % 5.6 % .287 1.42 .321 69.1 % 120 108 4.34
2011 Phillies (A) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 % 0.0 % .000 0.00 .000 100.0 %     3.20
2011 Phillies 7.62 1.96 3.89 1.09 19.4 % 5.0 % .306 1.48 .362 70.9 % 131 94 3.63
2012 2 Teams 7.82 1.60 4.88 1.37 20.6 % 4.2 % .269 1.26 .310 67.9 % 121 101 3.91

Clearly, K/BB isn't actually providing a meaningful statistic.

What matters in pitching is acrruing as many outs as you can in the fewest number of batters you can. All of the other variables are going to average themselves out, somehow. 

If you take as a given DIPS theory, that a pitcher has no control over balls in play, it stands to reason that the same pitcher has little or no control over the distribution of the hits that take place 30% of the time. Therefore, the best way to reduce runs is to strikeout as many batters as possible while denying as many free passes as you can – the primary reason that strand rate is also essentially volatile. K/BB isn't a measure of this skill at all.

What is, however, is K-BB. The difference between strikeouts and walks is the difference between batsmen and batted balls. This is a much better statistic, because it describes an actual skill in reducing runs – coincidentally, the only skills he can actually control.

The only thing that's left is converting this count statistic into a rate statistic. The best way to do that is to take this difference in batsmen/batted balls and set it to actual batters faced. Thus, (K-BB)/PA is the statistic that best addresses this problem.

Let's go back to Pitcher A and Pitcher B.

Pitcher A: 6/28.7 = 20.9%

Pitcher B: 5/31 = 16.1%

This gives us a clearer view of the value of these two pitchers. Pitcher B has the far superior K/BB, but he opens himself up to more batted balls, and as such is worse (albeit only slightly worse).

The one concern with this statistic is that it doesn't take HR% into account. First, that's also a rebuke to the old stat (K/BB). More importantly, though, HR% is actually a fairly erroneous statistic in itself. It's open to all sort of disputes: is a HR in Coors Field the same as a HR in Petco Park? HR% is a "pitcher's skill" to some effect (home runs imply hard contact), but it's much, much less useful than K/BB.

If you have any questions about either stat, feel free to comment.

Who Might Be Traded This Year?

A cursory glance at the Cubs' roster tells you a lot about the makeup of this team. They look be to a middling rotation, a middling bullpen, and a bottom-third offense. That's a good enough team to win 73-75 games (which would be a dozen or so win improvement); not the worst team in baseball, but not a good one either. I think that even the most optimistic of us (like a dmick-type Cubs fan) realizes that at some point in the season, the Cubs are going to sell off as many assets that make sense as possible. Who could those assets be?

Category #1: Overpriced, but Productive

This is where Carlos Marmol and Alfonso Soriano fall. Marmol makes $9.8 million, which is pretty ridiculous and one of the remaining artifacts of the Hendry Era. I didn't hate the idea at the time, and I can't pretend to know what payroll limitations Hendry was under, but here we are nonetheless. Marmol is a great bet to be traded, and it's not unlikely to happen before the season starts either. The Cubs will likely eat a fair bit of it and get a lottery ticket arm in return. 

Alfonso Soriano is the other stamp on the Hendry Era that lives on. Soriano has, in fairness, been about as good as advertised during his tenure with the Cubs; his contract gave many fans an unfair expectation of his skillset. Before the Cubs, his OPS+ was 115, and on the Cubs it was 113. He's due for a steep decline in the near future, but the Cubs could get a mid-15 prospect in a team's system if they ate enough money (and all signs point to a willingness to take on lots of salary). 

Category #2: Expiring Contracts

Nate Schierholtz was the biggest offensive signing of the season, which tells you exactly how competitive the Cubs think they are this season. He was brought into platoon at RF with Scott Hairston (our other big "get"), but he doesn't actually have an advantage either way: he's definitionally mediocre against both hands. He does have a higher BABIP against LHP (.343 to .300) and a lower OPS against them also (.732 to .708), so theoretically you expect some erosion in his skills against lefties. However, he's just average against righties anyways, so his value is strictly just injury-replacement at the deadline. Market and injuries will 100% define his value in a trade, but I can see him being as valuable as a 4-7 org guy in the best circumstances.

Scott Feldman is another one-year "prove it" deal. He's not the greatest pitcher in the world, but serviceable back-end types moving to the NL can catch some magic now and again. In the best case, he's slightly less useful than Paul Maholm in a trade (he has no option year), but I'd imagine that he'll reach that level of value safely. He's going to get every chance to start this year, and his peripherals have improved even if his standard stats haven't. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Feldman signing turns out to be the best move Hoyer made this year. 

Scott Baker might not throw another pitch for the Cubs. If that's the case, the Cubs effectively burned 5.5 million. However, it's far from certain that Scott #2 is cooked. He was quietly phenomenal in 2011 (of course, that's a TJS and 2 years ago), and his peripherals indicate tons of talent (lots of Ks, not many walks), and I'm cautiously optimistic about what that means if he can get on the mound. It's very difficult to imagine what his trade value might be, so I'm not going to speculate on it.

Everything I said about Baker I can just repeat for Garza. At this point, I think the Cubs are probably better served trying to extend Matt, because it's hard to envision getting anything approaching "fair value" for him.

Shawn Camp was the MVP of the Cubs last year, according to Dale Sveum. He parlayed that honor into a huge 1.35 million contract this year. For comparison, the Cubs paid Dioner Navarro 1.75 million this year. Camp could net a live arm in a trade with a repeat performance of 2012. Anything more than that is a bonus.

Category #3: Talented and Cost-Controlled

David DeJesus is a reasonably-priced, reasonably-good CF/RF. He's due to make 4.25 million this year, and 6.5 next year. That's a pretty valuable trade chip. Not only is he likely to be among the better deadline options out there, he's actually an upgrade for plenty of teams that might not even have an injury. DeJesus could garner a decent prospect if the right situation presents itself, and the Cubs will almost certaintly extract some value from his trade. 

Kyuji Fujikawa is a huge question mark, but the elder Japanese closer signed for 4 and 5.5, which means he could be very attractive in a trade at the deadline. Japanese pitchers have a tendency to overperform in the first year, which could also be to the Cubs' benefit. I'm not sold on Fujikawa being traded at all (for reasons even I don't know), but it's feasible to envision a scenario in which it does happen.

Sure, you can throw Carlos Villanueva in here. He's making 5 and 5, which is reasonable. I don't think he's going to be anything special for the Cubs, but hey, if you need a warm body to soak up innings…

Scott Hairston is a lefty-killer. Pieces like this get traded for unexpected returns every so often, so don't sleep on him. For that to work, though, he's got to OBP over .299. Come on, Hairston. I know you can do it.

Category #4: "Foundational" Pieces

I'm not sold on Darwin Barney being anything more than an excellent backup MIF in the future (I imagine many front offices share my view). There just isn't enough value to a glove that's attached to a bat that will optimistically flirt with the .300 wOBA line. The Cubs likely value defense pretty highly, and another team might share that view. Depending on the scenario (perhaps a high BABIP plus a modest progression in power), the Cubs might be able to flip Barney for some real prospects (and his great contact skills ensure that he'll make good use of a BABIP swing in his favor). The Cubs have flirted with the idea that Barney is a definitive part of the future. All it takes is one sucker at the table to change that, though.

Jeff Samardzija is about as difficult a pitcher to project as you're going to find in baseball this year. He's got the tools to be a legitimate #2 (he throws gas, has a great fastball, and a plus splitter). He's also got a tendency to leave balls high in the zone, where they get CRUSHED. Samardzija isn't a great extension candidate, but another team might not see it that way. He's cost-controlled for the next few years with a skillset scouts can dream on. In a trade, Shark could net a huge prospect. If James Shields is worth Wil Myers plus, Jeff Samardzija is worth more or less the same amount – but only if he continues at his 2012 pace. I think there is a real shot that Shark gets traded for a HUGE package this year if extension talks prove less than fruitful, and the Cubs will definitely be looking for impact arms in return.

Everyone else on the Cubs roster is either a "foundational cornerstone" that will require an unlikely offer to move (Castro or Rizzo), pieces that just don't make sense to trade (Castillo, Russell) or are just flotsam/jetsam that won't get much in return (Navarro, Clevenger, Valbuena, Stewart).