Author: myles

Cubs being Cubs (injury report)

Scott Baker has retired 1 batter in spring training. Unfortunately, he faced 6 of them. After his Spring Training performance, he decided that something wasn't right. 

Baker is going to meet with a doctor this weekend, and until then he'll do nothing. We already knew that Baker wasn't really going to pitch until mid-April at the earliest, but having elbow problems after Tommy John is obviously disconcerting. Baseball has been getting better and better results from TJS in recent years, but the recovery rate (obviously) is not 100%. If Baker has to go under the knife again (and it's a definite possibility, but by no means guaranteed), there's a great chance Baker will receive 5.5 million dollars from the Cubs to retire a single batter in a meaningless game in March. 

Nice work, if you can get it…

With Garza's indefinite absence, the rotation is shaping up to be Shark, EJax, Wood, Feldman, and Villanueva. Dale Sveum has said that Drew Carpenter is the 6th starter, but I hope not. He's been in AAA for the last 5 years and is the ethos of replacement-level starting pitching. Both Rusin and Bowden are 2 years younger (at 25) and could actually end up being passable 5th options (though it is basically splitting hairs). If you ask me, I'd got with Rusin; he's a leftie, and everyone else in the rotation except Wood is a righthander. 

Ian Stewart is also on the DL again. The move actually helps his chances of making the team, because he doesn't take up a roster spot. I think we've all basically just assumed that he's never going to return at 100% for this team, and he'll be paid his $2 million or whatever and ride off into the sunset. I'm not that mad about (considering the going rate for project middle relievers is $3 million).

I didn't want this to turn into a rant, but oh well. Is there a greater example of how stupid the new IFA rules are than this? If Rivero signed 2 years ago, he'd be a nobody that got $75,000 to fill a roster somewhere. However, now there are only 3 places in which you can use financial resources to compete for "talent": free agency, the "posting" system, and IFA that don't qualify under their spending limitations. The demand for talent is still high, but the supply of free market talent is low. Thus, the prices for that talent rises, to the point that we paid Armando Rivero $3.1 million to relieve at AA this year. When people are talking about about your multi-million acquisitions with the phrases "maybe a middle reliever" and "doesn't have a plus secondary pitch", it's time to wonder if the system is working as intended. 

As for the MLB club, I've talked about the rotation. In the bullpen, I think it's pretty clear:

Rondon is the Rule V mopup guy. He's apparently been adequate.
Takahashi has a great shot at the lefty out of the bullpen. He's not a traditional LOOGY, but he's a fine bullpen janitor (cleans up the shit).
Camp is a fine 7th inning guy, and he'll probably be back-to-back Cubs' MVP.
Russell is the setup man who was nails last year. I think another year in the pen will do him wonders, but you've got to be slightly concerned about getting bit by the variance bug. His HR/9 rate fell by a whole bomb per 9 last year (1.60 to 0.65), and it'll be interesting to see if that trend continues. Until Marmol is traded, he's probably sharing the set-up duties with Fujikawa.
Fujikawa will probably close after Marmol is traded. No one has any idea if he's any good. 
Marmol will close until he's traded.

The last spot is interesting. If the Cubs are serious about stretching Bowden out, he obviously will start the season in Iowa. If not, he'd be a serviceable dude in the 'pen. Without him (and I'm assuming Carpenter is starting in AAA also, along with Cabrera) the last spot is probably down to Cory Wade and Zach Putnam (guys like Zych and Chapman have an outside shot).  If it were up to me, I'd give Wade the spot. He's shown the ability to be an effective reliever at the MLB level before, so you might be able to spin him for a lottery ticket at the deadline. In the end, though, I'm betting the Cubs put Bowden in that spot. He's have to clear irrevocable waivers if he doesn't make the team, and even then he'd likely refuse the assignment. He can make a team somewhere. He gets a spot on the 40-man just as soon as Stewart inevitably goes on the 60-day.

List of Cubs hurt during Spring Training:
Brett Jackson
Albert Almora
Matt Garza
Ian Stewart
Scott Baker
Rafael Dolis
Starlin Castro
 

Assume the Position: MLB Starting Pitchers

For pitching, I'm going to break it down into more easily-digestible bunches. For this version, I'm going to look at the Cubs in 2012 and then the people most likely to make the team (for Opening Day) in 2013.

      Last Year 2013 Career  
  Name Age GS IP ERA FIP pwFIP ERA FIP  
  Samardzija 28 28 174.2 3.81 3.55 3.97 4.10 4.04  
  Wood 26 26 156.0 4.27 4.84 4.60 4.22 4.22  
  Volstad 26 21 111.1 6.31 5.11 4.09 4.87 4.61 orbit
  Maholm 31 20 120.1 3.74 4.14 3.96 4.26 4.18 ATL
  Garza 29 18 103.2 3.91 4.17 3.73 3.84 4.00 DL
  Dempster 36 16 104.0 2.25 3.43 4.08 4.33 4.22 BOS
  Germano 30 12 64.0 6.75 4.33 4.28 5.27 4.65 orbit
  Rusin 26 7 29.2 6.37 4.85 4.68 6.37 4.85  
  Jackson 29 31 189.2 4.03 3.85 3.73 4.40 4.26  
  Villaneuva 29 16 125.1 4.16 4.71 4.14 4.26 4.43  
  Feldman 30 21 123.2 5.09 3.81 3.95 4.81 4.56  
  Baker 32 21 134.2 3.14 3.45 4.13 4.15 3.95 2011

Jeff Samardzija is the de facto ace of this staff. All 5 of Fangraphs' projections has him sliding in FIP, and I might agree with them. When the FANS projection slates you for 3.72 coming off of 3.66 and 3.55 (albeit 2011 was in relief), something is a little wonky. He's been getting lit up in the Spring, but he says he's just working stuff out (he actually said he threw a belt-high fastball down the center of a plate so a dude could hit a home run off him, so he could work with empty bases (or something like that). He's a good bet to be a solid #2 rotation guy. 

Travis Wood is scary. He looked bad last year and he was actually really lucky by FIP-standards. He doesn't have a great fastball and he doesn't change speeds well: his FB last year sat at 89.4, his changeup at 79.6. He's a pitch-to-contact guy who had an obscenely low .244 BABIP last year – unless some part of his kit has drastically improved he is going to get rocked this season. A team with 2012-vintage Wood getting 20 starts is a team that loses over 90 games. In an ideal world, he'd be a LOOGY (wOBA of .279 against lefties).

Chris Volstad was a total disaster last year. He struck out less than 5 people per 9 innings. You can do that if you are an incredible pitch-to-contact type that induces groundballs: Volstad is not that guy. His LD% has steadily risen over the past 5 years. According to Pitch f/x, he didn't have a single league-average pitch last year.

Paul Maholm started the year of really poorly but became a solid starter for most of the year. The Cubs traded him for Arodys Vizcaino, and that move will probably work out for both teams (a definite win-win for both sides at the time of the trade – Maholm had another year of cost-control). 

Matt Garza could have possibly netted a Top 50 prospect at one point, if not more. At this point, the best the Cubs could probably hope for is a Christian Villanueva-type. He might sign a team-friendly extension, or a prove-it deal with the Cubs, but if the injuries didn't make him a vastly inferior pitcher, he's still a large injury risk for whatever team ends up with him. It sucks, but that's the truth.

Ryan Dempster had an incredible run with the Cubs last year. Shenanigans with the trades aside, he ended his tenure with the Cubs as a generally good player. He wasn't very good for the Rangers after the trade, and he's not going to like it in Boston either. 

Justin Germano has played parts of 7 SEASONS despite sporting a career ERA of 5.27. He is the very definition of a replacement-level pitcher and played like one for the Cubs. That might be a little harsh given his freakish strand rate and .339 BABIP, but at some point you have to realize that you are giving 12 starts to a 30-year old non-prospect with no future in your organization and move on. The Cubs have.

Chris Rusin is not very good. He was another guy who just had an awful strand rate last year (64.7%) which points to either an inability to pitch from the stretch or variance. We'll probably see which it is, unfortunately, because the Cubs don't have many backup options before they get to Chris "I can give you 5" Rusin.

Edwin Jackson is this year's big FA acquisition. He's probably going to give you 190 innings of slightly-above-average pitching, which is just fine by me. He's a #3 on an average team, which means he's probably our second-best pitcher depending on how you feel about Garza, and his contract and age will still be fine when the Cubs are a good team again. He did lose a mile from his fastball last year, but he lost a mile from all of his other pitches too, so I'm not incredibly worried that he's suddenly incredibly hittable. It'll be very interesting to see if he can keep down his LD% like he did last year.

Carlos Villanueva isn't very good. He was hit-lucky and strand-lucky last year, and those worked in concert to mask a year that wasn't as rosey as it looked. He's an ideal 5th-starter/swingman type, and he'll likely occupy that role with Chicago this year. 

Scott Feldman was the anti-Villanueva last year. He FIPed 3.81, but had an ERA of 5.09. He left only 61.0% on base, and his BABIP went from .239 the year before to a fairly-high .318. If he repeats his peripherals from last year, he'll be just fine, and he's got the stuff to work as a 4th of 5th starter on an average team. 

Scott Baker is a huge injury concern. If he comes back at the level he used to pitch at, he could be a great steal for the Cubs. However, he signed with the Cubs, so he'll probably spend half the year on the DL, and the other half doing his best Chris Volstad impression.

All in all, the Cubs will at least have more depth than last year. That was a serious, serious problem last year (on the order of 5-10 wins lost to sub-replacement pitching), so we've improved pretty drastically in this area. However, we are still basically average at this point.

100 Walks

Here's something interesting I discovered today: Starlin Castro has exactly 100 career walks. 

Here's the breakdown:

29 in 2010

35 in 2011

36 in 2012

63 in Wrigley Field

6 in Great American (next highest)

55 times with the bases empty

12 times with just a man on first or just a man on second (next highest, tied)

0 times with the bases loaded

72 times when the Cubs were tied or trailing

38 times on just 4 pitches (14 intentional walks)

33 times on 6 or more pitches (fouled off at least once)

1 time on 10 pitches – the Cubs were down 10-5 against the White Sox against Scott Linebrink. It didn't help.

1 3-walk game

9 2-walk games

One time (09-18-2010), Colvin scored on a walk, but the bases weren't loaded. There were men on first and second, and Colvin advanced home on E-2. That run tied the game, Castro would later score the insurance run, and the Cubs would win 5-3.

22 walks in high-leverage situations.

It took Castro 1912 plate appearances to get his first 100 walks. Adam Dunn drew 105 walks this year, in 649 plate appearances.

Castro's last walk took place on the last game of the season. The Cubs were tied in the bottom of the ninth with 2 men on and 2 outs. Castro walked on 5 pitches, and LaHair singled in the winning run. 

Congrats, Starlin, on 100. Here's to 900 more.

Congrats mikeakaelroy!

The 2013 Bunt Tournament: Bunt Harder has come to a close, and mikeakaelroy is our champion! He is now the proud owner or The Book on baseball, by resident Cubs genius Tom Tango. Thanks to everyone who participated, and hopefully the Cubs hold another tournament next year so we can do this again.

Our boy Nate "The Hammer" Halm bounced Edwin Jackson in the semis, and David "The Buntfather" DeJesus dispatched Edwin Maysonet in similar fashion. That's pretty cool that both losers in the semifinals were named "Edwin." Then, in the finals, DeJesus showed us how awesome his bunting skills really are.

Hopefully, he never uses them.

Spring Training Roster Battles: Hitters

The Cubs have played 13 spring training games so far, giving most contenders to make the major league squad 15-20 PA. Here's a breakdown of each battle so far:

OQ = Opponent Quality

Catcher

Castillo (17 PA, 9.3 OQ): .267/.353/.467, 1 HR

Navarro (16 PA, 8.9 OQ): .214/.313/.429, 1 HR

Clevenger* (17 PA, 9.0 OQ): .333/.412/.333, 0 HR

*1 game started at 1B

Everyone has performed to expectations here. I'd expect Castillo to start, Navarro to backup (but start more than a normal backup), and Clevenger has a SHOT at being emergency catcher/corner infielder, depending on the breaks.

First Base

Rizzo (15 PA, 9.2 OQ, Italy): .286/.333/.429, 0 HR

Nelson (19 PA, 8.8 OQ): .333/.368/.833, 2 HR

Bogusevic* (23 PA, 8.7 OQ): .450/.522/.900, 1 HR

*3 games at RF, 1 at LF

Nelson is no real threat to make the team, he's the backup backup backup plan. He's a Quad-A guy. Bogusevic has more of a chance, but it's likely tied to if Soriano gets traded or if Sappelt is really not liked by the management. Bogusevic doesn't have the positional flexibility a guy like Lillibridge has, so he can really only play LF or RF. 

Second Base

Barney (19 PA, 9.3 OQ): .278/.316/.333, 0 HR

Maysonet* (21 PA, 8.8 OQ): .158/.238/.368, 1 HR

Lillibridge** (10 PA, 9.0 OQ): .300/.300/.300, 0 HR

Watkins (19 PA, 8.5 OQ): .294/.368/.529, 0 HR

*4 games at SS, 3 at 2B, 2 at 3B, 1 at 1B

** 2 games at SS, 1 at 2B, 3B, and 1B

I put Maysonet and Lillibridge here because Castro plays 162. Lillibridge has a good shot at sticking, and Maysonet less so, but Watkins is probably deserving of the shot. Unlike Lilli or Edwin, Logan will probably be a part of the next contending Cubs team; however, I'd rather Watkins start every day in AAA this year and have Lillibridge be the backup. 

Shortstop

No one is making the team besides Castro here, who is sitting out most of Spring Training.

Third Base

Valbuena (14 PA, 9.4 OQ): .417/.500/.833, 1 HR

Stewart: (Hurt, Again): nothing/nothing/nothing, 1 Injury

Lake* (24 PA, 8.7 OQ): .304/.333/.565, 1 HR

*1 game in CF

It's hard to tell if Lake is permanently moving to 3B, because Stewart's injury necessitates someone play there the days Valbuena has off. I'm inclined to believe that the OF is still being discussed with Lake, but injuries are just forcing the Cubs hand here. Valbuena should probably start at 3B, Stewart should probably be cut (he's not going to accumulate much value on our bench when/if he returns), and either Lillibridge or Clevenger should back him up. I suppose that Stewart could win the job if he returns and does well, but he's just about out of chances (with the Cubs, anyway). 

Left Field

Soriano (16 PA, 9.2 OQ): .357/.438/.643, 1 HR

McDonald* (22 PA, 9.1 OQ): .150/.182/.350, 1 HR

*5 games at LF, 2 at RF, 1 at CF

McDonald has been given a ton of chances, and he's done little with them.

Center Field

DeJesus (16 PA, 9.1 OQ): .083/.313/.083, 0 HR

Sappelt (23 PA, 8.7 OQ): .174/.174/.348, 1 HR

Jackson* (18 PA, 8.7 OQ): .273/.444/.727, 0 HR

*4 games at LF, 2 at CF, 1 at RF

Sappelt has the inside track at the backup CF position, but Jackson is the better player. Hopefully, Soriano is traded, DeJesus moves to LF (where he's probably more comfortable), and Jackson starts in CF. 

Right Field

Schierholtz (18 PA, 9.4 OQ): .400/.444/.667, 1 HR

Hairston* (20 PA, 9.2 OQ): .158/.200/.316, 1 HR

Chavez** (17 PA, 8.2 OQ): .375/.353/.688, 1 HR

* 3 games at CF and RF

**4 games at RF, 3 at LF

Hairston and Schierholtz are a lock to platoon at this position. Johermyn Chavez is prospect-y enough to hope he stays with the Cubs, but it certainly won't be at the major league level, it's just too crowded. In either case, no big deal. 

The offensive unit kinda looks like this to me:

Configuration A:

C: Castillo/Navarro/Clevenger

1B: Rizzo/Clevenger

2B: Barney/Lillibridge

SS: Castro/Lillibridge

3B: Valbuena/Clevenger/Lillibridge

LF: Soriano/DeJesus

CF: DeJesus/Sappelt

RF: Schierholtz/Hairston

13 players

Configuration B:

C: Castillo/Navarro

1B: Rizzo/Lillibridge/Castillo

2B: Barney/Valbuena/Lillibridge

SS: Castro/Valbuena/Lillibridge

3B: Stewart/Valbuena/Lillibridge

LF: Soriano/Valbuena/Lillibridge

CF: DeJesus/Sappelt

RF: Schierholtz/Hairston

13 players

I think the first one is more likely. I actually like the idea of giving Castillo starts against lefties at 1B, because it'll save his legs and give a platoon advantage there. Plus, Navarro is a switch hitter, so he can still get platoon in those cases.

 

 

Better Know a Cub: Brett Jackson

How long does it take to change your swing? Is it even possible to change in your 20's? The answer to these 2 questions will probably tell you all you need to know about Jackson's future with the Cubs.

Brett Jackson was drafted in the 1st round of the 2009 draft, at 31st overall. He worked his way up many prospect lists in the ensuing few years, putting up .400 wOBAs essentially in every year in the minors. Jackson displayed great plate discipline every year (he walked from 10 to 16% each season) and blossoming power (8/12/20 HR), and maintained a slugging percentage of around .490 every year.

The only problem with his game was his strikeouts, which hovered around 25% a year. The year he finally got called up, he had been striking out roughly 1/3 of the time, and he wasn't exactly tearing up the minors, either. In the majors, his strikeouts ballooned to a comical 41.5%. That's not a sustainable approach to the plate. Jackson is going to have to evolve as a hitter, most likely, to stick as an everyday player.

Offense

I've already outlined Jackson's basically stellar minor league numbers, but I'll give another quick rundown. He climbed a level in every season, and finished his AAA career at a .269/.353/.502 line. In AAA, he walked 12% of the time and struck out around 31%. I've never seen him in person (in the minors), but his admittedly small sample of major professional baseball gives us some additional insights.

First, he struck out 59 times in 142 plate appearances, "good" for 41.5% of the time. Using a sample size calculator, that 41.5% mark is anywhere from 30.8 to 52.2 as a "true" rate of strikeouts (99% certainty). Even at the extreme low end, that's a really high mark for someone of Jackson's skillset (only 14 players last year had a rate of 30% or higher, min. 250 PA). 

That being said, it's relatively easy to diagnose Jackson's issues. He swings at the right pitches: he only offers at 23.9% of pitches outside the zone (league average: 29%). He swings at roughly the same percentage of in-zone pitches; however, he doesn't make contact with many of either. The league contact average is 79.7%. His contact percentage of 64.2 is the third lowest among players with 100 PA or more last year. There are two ways to be successful with a contact percentage that low: be Josh Hamilton and swing at 59% of the pitches with prodigious power, or only offer at pitches in the zone with a great amount of power. Jackson doesn't have the power to get pitchers to respect him, so he'll have to learn to make better contact. If he just became merely bad at it, his profile would rise from 4th OF to pretty good CF quickly. Hopefully his new swing helps out with that.

Defense

Jackson has always profiled as an above-average CF. He doesn't have great footspeed, but he does have good speed and he makes great jumps on the ball. He has just an average arm but throws with accuracy and will make most baserunners respect his ability to get the ball in.

Summary

I'm going to put two players side by side.

  o-swing% z-swing% swing% o-contact% z-contact % contact%
Jackson 26% 65% 41% 49% 74% 64%
Dunn 24% 64% 41% 50% 80% 70%

As you can see, contact in the zone (and the lack of power) is what separates Jackson from successful high-K major leaguers. Every other part of Jackson's game is major-league ready, and that includes his plate discipline. For all of Jackson's problems, he still got on base at a higher clip than Darwin Barney last year, with a wOBA greater than one Luis Valbuena. I remain very, very skeptical of the ability to retool a swing in one off-season, but if Jackson can do it (or just find some more success with his old one), he's got the ability to be a productive major-league CF for a decade to come.

Myles’ Top 15 Positional Prospects List

Now that I've done the AtP for all of the positional players, I've got my Top 15 prospects list ready. I did it all on my own, but the list is really similar to many of the others out there, with minor variations. 

First, I'll explain my methodology. I first made a system from 59 (complete non-prospect) to 100 (potential all-time great). The number assigned to each person takes two things into account: the upside, and the bust potential. For instance, I have 75 as a MLB backup, but Junior Lake is a 75. His upside is more like an 85, but his bust chance is way higher than normal, so I settled on 75. I then went down the minors and found 21 people that I thought were greater than 59. 6 missed the cut (Justin Marra, Rock Shoulders, Greg Rohan, Zeke DeVoss, Ronald Torreyes, Stephen Bruno, and Jae-Hoon Ha). 

The grading system is as follows:

100 is a potential inner-circle HOF that has a very low chance to bust. Maybe .5 prospects a year would get this rating, and none would this year.

95 is a potential HOF that has a low to mid chance to bust. This is probably the top 4-6 prospects.

90 is a potential MVP candidate at some point. This is probably the top 20 or so prospects.

85 is a potential All-Star candidate at some point. This is probably the top 50-60 prospects.

80 is a potential MLB regular. From this point, it's hard to put a number on the total prospects, but consider that there are 750 major league players at one time.

75 is a likely MLB backup.

70 is a potential backup, or a player without high upside but with a relatively high floor.

65 is a potential backup with low upside but a potential low floor.

60 is a longshot MLB backup but with some skill that makes them interesting.

Without further ado, here's the list.

#1 (90) Javier Baez SS

Baez is young and has a relatively high chance to bust for someone as good a prospect as he is. He doesn't have the greatest patience and might not be a plus defender anywhere on the infield (though he's rapidly improving at short). That being said, he's got truly elite bat speed and good power. He's young, arrogant, and good. If he repeats his 2012 performance at A+/AA, he'll be in the majors next year at just 20 years old.

#2 (87) Albert Almora CF

Almora might not ever garner MVP votes, but for a youngster he has a seemingly high floor. He can play great defense at CF even now, and is so advanced for the leagues he was in last year that he almost never struck out. He is the most likely of the Big Three prospects to actually play meaningfully in the majors, albeit with the lowest upside.

#3 (85) Jorge Soler RF-CF

Soler has 70 power (on the 20-80) scale, which is rarer than it sounds. He might have the only 80 tool in the whole organization with his arm. (EDIT: This is more apt of Junior Lake. Soler does have a fantastic arm, but Lake's is better.) His batting eye needs a little work, but not much, and he can run enough to play CF (but hasn't, inexplicably). He's got a chance to bust out for sure, but the upside is there.

#4 (82) Dan Vogelbach 1B-DH

#4 (82) Brett Jackson CF-OF

Vogelbach and Jackson are tied at 4 in my list, though they are completely different prospects. Vogelbach is a huge bust risk with his body (and the quick changes that he's making to it). He could lose his power with his weight or eat himself out of the league. That being said, he's got great plate discipline and hurts balls real bad. He's a defensive liability but could be an incredible force in the lineup. Brett Jackson is the other way: he can play good defense at any outfield position, but is a threat to strike out 40% in the majors. He works counts and has okay-ish power, and at worst right now he's a passable 4thOF. If the new swing really works, he could play in a few All-Star games, and if it doesn't, he's still got the toolset of a backup.

#6 (80) Gioskar Amaya 2B

I'm a huge Amaya fan. His plate discipline has always been solid (9% walk rate), and his power has developed every year. It's not common for 2B to put up ISOs of .200, but Amaya did last year. He's got to work on fighting his strikeouts, but the combination of speed, power, and patience make Amaya a potential great at 2B in the (distant) future.

#7 (78) Arismendy Alcantara SS

Alcantara doesn't walk very much, but he also plays the more premium position (relative to Amaya). Alcantara is also a switch hitter, so if he can cultivate that skill he could be slightly more valuable. He was injured last year, but all signs point to him being 100% now. I'm banking on him picking up where he left off in 2012. 

#8 (77) Jeimer Candelario 3B/LF

Candelario's biggest concern is his potential demotion to 1B from 3B. Candelario is young and he has good plate discipline for his age, but his drastically lower BABIP in '12 showed people what Candelario's true talent level was more like (and it was still high-ish at .327). Candelario is a guy who could really shoot up this board later on, but he's also equally likely to just be another dork at 1B/LF that busts out at AA.

#9 (75) Logan Watkins UTIL

#9 (75) Dave Sappelt OF

#9 (75) Marco Hernandez SS

#9 (75) Christian Villaneuva 3B

#9 (75) Junior Lake 3B

#9 (75) Matt Szczur CF-OF

75 is basically where prospects are too diverse to dissect meaningfully. Each of these guys are at different stages at their prospect-hood. I think Hernandez and Lake have the best chance to be above-average MLB starters, but they also have the best chance of busting out and never making it. Sappelt and Watkins are almost both shoo-ins to log some time at the Majors (Watkins have a better chance of starting at some point in a DeRosa role), but are unlikely to ever be more than primary backups. Villanueva and Szczur are somewhere in between those two groups. I can find something I like about each of these guys, and another thing I don't like about all of them. You could put these 6 guys in literally any order and I couldn't honestly disagree with you.

#15 (73) Josh Vitters 3B

Vitters still has a chance to make it, but boy was he awful in his first cup last year. His poor play in 3B was topped only by his ineptitude at the plate. He has a pretty swing and a history of making progress the longer he stays at a level, but he's only  worth anything if he can stick at 3B and he can more than double his BABIP from last year (double it, his OBP "climbs" to a Barney-esque .308). It's hard to believe he's only going to be 23 next year, but he's had 2,227 professional plate appearances in his career. It's hard to imagine a great change in his skills now. 

Assume the Position: RF

Finally, the last AtP for positional players. I've used basically all of the outfielders in the other two outfield summaries. This one is a bit light. Soler is a great prospect and that's it. Everyone else sucks. 

      Last Year 2013 Career
  Name Age AVG OBP SLG wOBA pwOBA AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB LaHair 29 0.259 0.334 0.450 0.339 0.332 0.260 0.334 0.430 0.333
  Baker 31 0.239 0.279 0.378 0.283 0.283 0.266 0.316 0.428 0.323
* Hairston 33 0.263 0.299 0.504 0.342 0.330 0.247 0.302 0.449 0.324
* Schierholtz 29 0.251 0.321 0.407 0.314 0.321 0.270 0.319 0.409 0.315
AAA Nope                    
AA Burgess 24 0.259 0.350 0.422 0.357          
A+ Bonne 26 0.275 0.293 0.360 0.298          
A Soler 21 0.338 0.398 0.513 0.406          
A- Batista 21 0.204 0.289 0.341 0.300          
  Garsez 23 0.228 0.315 0.380 0.327          
Rk Schlecht 20 0.252 0.359 0.345 0.341          

The average wOBA for a RF last year was .327.

MLB

Bryan LaHair is going to be Godzilla in Japan next year. I wish him nothing but the best. He did really well last year for a long time. Jeff Baker was used almost perfectly by the Cubs last year, and was traded by almost-prospect Marcelo Carreno. He's never going to be a Cub again, probably. Scott Hairston can't get on base 30% of the time. He's going to get, like, 90 starts. Nate Schierholtz is the other half of that platoon. He's a fine 4th OF who is playing starting RF for us. 

AAA

Nope. Just Chuck Testa.

AA

Michael Burgess doesn't seem like he's going to amount to anything, but he was drafted by Houston in the Rule V so if he's going to get a chance to play, it's going to be with them. 

A+

Elieser Bonne is another plus name. He was brought in from Cuba and only has 2 years of professional experience, but he's 26 this year and has been very, very underwhelming. Pass.

A

Jorge Soler is the real deal. Of course, it's very small sample size, but he looks good so far. He might be a quicker climber than we thought originally, but he's still a few years away.

A-

Xavier Batista took a big step back last year. He's still fairly young (21 years this year), but he's going to need to develop some more power, which should be doable. 6-3, 190 seems like he could still grow, but I've never seen him in person so I don't know. Isaac Garsez strikes out like he's gunning for the world record. He was drafted in the 30th of 2012, and he's going to be out of baseball in 3 years, tops.

Rk

Garrett Schlecht is really young and really weak. His OBP/SLG differential makes Tony Campana look like Babe Ruth. He's 20 this year, so who knows?

All told, only Soler is worth a shit. 

Projected Starters

MLB: Schierholtz/Hairston

AAA: NRI

AA: Bonne?

A+: Soler

A: Garsez/Batista

A-:Schlecht

 

Bunt Tourney Update

The Bunt Tourney is almost at the Sweet 16 (h/t Carrie Muskat). 

Nick Struck vs Edwin Jackson
Shawn Camp vs Casey Coleman
David DeJesus vs Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro vs Rafael Lopez

Here’s the players who have advanced so far:
Anthony Rizzo vs. Logan Watkins
Brent Lillibridge vs Michael Brenly
Edwin Maysonet vs Andy Lane (bullpen catcher)

Chris Rusin vs. Tim Buss (strength coach)
Jeff Samardzija vs Blake Parker
Travis Wood vs Nate Halm (video guy)

Dave DeJesus is (I believe) the defending champion. That guy should just bunt all the time!

“Daily” Facepalm 2/28/13

All the muck that's fit to rake on this last day of February…

Good News!

Bleacher Nation's creator and all-around Good Dude Brett welcomes Clark Taylor into the world. I think I speak for all of us when I say congratulations, and also have him start throwing lefty because we definitely need some pitching prospects. Brett was nothing but kind to me when I reached out to him for advice starting Windy City Sports Wonk, which ultimately led me over here, so I'm thankful for that. Plus, my own first kid is due in 6 weeks, so it's neat to think that maybe one of our kids will see a World Series championship. I'm not holding my breath.

Bad News!

Starlin Castro has suffered a hamstring injury. It doesn't appear to be serious, but since he's a Cub, it will ultimately ruin his career, probably. He joins Ian Stewart and Matt Garza in the "injured in Spring Training of all places" group, and is ultimately day-to-day.

Regular News!

There are 30 contests left for the MLB Fan Cave, and one of them is a Cubs fan. Based on the quality of her movie, I really, really hope that she loses. I was hoping for a little more production value, honestly.

7th Inning Stretch

Apparently, this isn't what the Cubs to have happen. As much as you might want "peanut butter and crack," the Cubs are going to try to just have former Cubs and "Chicago celebrities" sing the 7th inning stretch from now on. It has been ridiculous how stupid and banal the stretch has been the last few years, so I welcome the change. If you want to keep the tradition, I don't see why you can't just have a recording of Haray Caray do it on the days you don't have awesome guests, so we don't have to listen to the cast of Jersey Shore or whatever. If it has to be former Cubs, I vote for Leo Gomez and Glenallen Hill.

J'Marcus Webb arrested

Well, I guess there's another thing that J'Marcus Webb can't stop. Webb isn't terrible in run protection (12th in runs through him last year), but is awful in pass protection (after all, he's a member of the Bears OLine). It remains to be seen whether or not anything comes of this. 

Minutiae

Angel Pagan had more triples last year (15) than the New York Yankees did (13). (Castro led the Cubs, with 12, second most in the majors).

Tony Campana led the league in SB by a player without a 3B last year.

A drawing of the Cubs' new ST digs is pretty dreamy.