Author: myles

Assume the Position: CF

Apparently, CF isn't as loaded as I thought (for my purposes, Soler is a RF, not a CF). There's at least one top 3-5 teamwide prospect in here, and a few ok-ish prospects as well, but it's not a surplus of value like I thought when I started.

      Last Year 2013 Career
  Name Age AVG OBP SLG wOBA pwOBA AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB Campana 27 0.264 0.308 0.299 0.273 0.274 0.262 0.306 0.300 0.272
  Jackson 24 0.175 0.303 0.342 0.292 0.305 0.175 0.303 0.342 0.292
  Byrd 35 0.210 0.243 0.245 0.216 0.310 0.278 0.336 0.413 0.328
  DeJesus 33 0.263 0.350 0.403 0.332 0.330 0.281 0.355 0.419 0.341
AAA Jackson 24 0.256 0.338 0.479 0.354          
AA Ha 22 0.272 0.352 0.385 0.346          
  Szczur 23 0.210 0.285 0.357 0.299          
  Silva 24 0.263 0.277 0.413 0.311          
A+ Szczur 23 0.295 0.394 0.407 0.373          
  Silva 24 0.302 0.322 0.412 0.333          
A Easterling 24 0.243 0.316 0.366 0.314          
A- Martin 20 0.270 0.318 0.377 0.328          
  Almora 19 0.292 0.292 0.446 0.339          
Rk Almora 19 0.347 0.363 0.480 0.380          

The average wOBA for a CF in 2012 was .323.

MLB

The Cubs had 5 players with over twenty starts at CF last year. 5! For some reason, I didn't include Joe Mather or Reed Johnson in this (who cares, really), and added Marlon Byrd because why not. He was terrible, and also on some sort of performance enhancing drug. One has to think what type of performance it was enhancing, because Byrdo was straight terrible last year. He's out of baseball, most likely. The starter at CF this year (and he logged the most starts on the Cubs at CF last year too; he was there most likely starter in both center AND right) is likely David DeJesus. He doesn't pass the eye test, defensively, but his "defensive metrics" point to an average-ish effort in any part of the outfield. He'll be a slightly-above average offering in center if he can hack it there, and should turn a nice profit at the trade deadline when the Cubs sell him off. I like DeJesus a lot, and he walked over 10% of the time last year, the first of his career. Tony Campana was seriously not good at baseball. He can't field even with his 80 speed, he has less power than you (and I mean you, dear reader) do on your beer league softball team, and he has poor plate discipline. That said, he has value as a pinch-runner on a team with a really good 4th OF. That isn't the Diamondbacks, but w/e. We got live humans for him, so I'm happy. I would have accepted dead humans, honestly. Brett Jackson has a retooled swing. Unless it cuts his strikeouts in half, I'm not terribly interested. That being said, there's still a place on the Cubs for a high-walk, high-strikeout, moderate-power CF that is a plus defensively. That's what Jackson could be without too much dreaming. If he could get his K's to just Adam Dunn levels (he's 7% away!), his line goes from .171/.303/.342 to like .200/.330/.370. On second thought, maybe he's got to get them lower than that….

AAA

No one. Seriously. The way it worked out, Jackson got to the majors, Campana got sent to Arizona, and Dave Sappelt was profiled in LF. Jim Adduci is gone, and Jeff Frazier played 1 game at CF for the ICubs last year. This is the first and last time you'll ever hear the collection a syllables coalesce as "Jeff Frazier" for the rest of your life.

AA

Jae-Hoon Ha is interesting, in a sense. He was thought of as a toolsy "developmental" prospect who never really developed…until last year. In 200 more PA than any other year, his walk rate went from 4.5% (his previous high, comically) to 9.5%. His ISO stayed the same, and his BABIP was relatively normal, but the result was a .273/.352/.385 line in AA at 21. Putting that into perspective, he's younger than Szczur is, but last year he performed well at a level Szczur barely reached (and struggled at). For good measure, he also walked at a higher rate than Szczur at AA. That's slightly disingenous considering Matt's track record and SSS at AA (158 PA), but if Szczur is a legit prospect (and I don't think he is) than Ha is at that level or better. Speaking of, Matt Szczur, the shine has rubbed off quite a bit. It's hard to get jazzed about a guy who is prospect-old at each level he gets to (and who doesn't completely dominate those leagues). He's got 10 pounds to grow into, and maybe that'll give him some power, but he needs to move up the ladder pretty fast if he wants to be thought of highly. Rubi Silva is a baseball player.

A+

Hate. Let me tell you how much I've come to hate you since I began to live. There are 387.44 million miles of printed circuits in wafer thin layers that fill my complex. If the word 'hate' was engraved on each nanoangstrom of those hundreds of miles it would not equal one one-billionth of the hate I feel for humans at this micro-instant. For you. Hate. Hate.

Also, there are no prospects at A+ because they either moved to AA or are Elieser Bonne (so, no.)

A

Taiwan Easterling was one of the oldest players on his team last year, but he still couldn't hack league-average. He's still young to the system (college senior; he was actually drafted in the 6th round in 2007), but his frame isn't projectable and he's been nothing but overwhelmed so far. His time is short.

A-

Darien "Trey" Martin angered me when I couldn't find him in fangraphs. He's been a nice little player so far. He did OK last year (crushed rookie league, was ok-ish at A-), though plate discipline is already a minor concern. Martin has a nice frame and can grow into some power (and out of center, possibly) and will still be 20 this year. He'd start at A if it wasn't for Albert Almora, who did everything he was supposed to last year. At 145 PA, I'm not going crazy for anything just yet, but he did very well in his first taste of professionals. Sure, his walk rate was incredibly bad. However, look at his K rate too; he wasn't overmatched, he was just too good for the league. He made contact with everything he swung at, and that contact was for the most part loud. Almora is plenty far away but could climb the ladder quickly until he reaches a level that he has to work at.

Rk

I am a happy camper so I guess I'm doing something right.  Happiness is like a butterfly; the more you chase it, the more it will elude you; but, if you turn your attention to other things, it will come and sit softly on your shoulder.

Albert Almora was here.

There's definitely some talent here. The Cubs have one potential superstar in Almora, and 3 people or so with a shot at contributing in the majors (Jackson, Ha, Szczur). Let's hope Jackson can take over for DeJesus after he's traded, because CF are pretty damn expensive.

Projected Rosters:

MLB: DeJesus

AAA: Jackson/Ha

AA: Szczur/Silva

A+: Easterling

A: Almora

A-: Martin

Bunt Tournament Update!

The Bunt Tournament signups are now closed. We had 34 entrants, and 48 spots to for these contestants. That means I randomly assigned 14 people a BONUS CONTESTANT!

Here are your players:

mikeakaelroy 1 37 DeJesus Feldman
SVB 2   Soler  
John 3   Barney  
Ruben 4   Lake  
SK 5   Castro  
Dan 6 42 Szczur Chapman
Kappy 7 35 Soriano Baker
TomTompkins 8 40 Lopez Raley
tc 9 47 Hairston Russell
koboldekobold 10   Villaneuva 3B  
Enrico Pallazzo 11   Schierholtz  
Bwoodrum 12 43 Watkins Cabrera
Lukas 13 41 Stewart Parker
MJK 14   Baez  
Cubs 567 15   Rizzo  
TomTompkins 16   Chavez  
Dick Cheese 17   Brenly  
Jed Jam Band 18   McDonald  
WaLi 19   Lillibridge  
Erix 20   B Jackson  
uncle dave 21 38 Bogusevic Rusin
5 run home run 22 45 Maysonet Wood
RC 23   Valbuena  
Snyds0122 24   Lane  
Mucker 25   Coleman  
JonKneeV 26   Loux  
srbutch5 27 44 Camp Samardzija
Mr. Gorilla Cock 28   Whitenack  
GBTS 29 48 E Jackson Halm
Xoomwaffle 30 36 McNutt Diaz
Akabari 31   Marmol  
sam 32 46 Struck Carpenter
Sitrick 33   Garza  
sychophant 34 39 Putnam Takahashi

 Now, I'm not sure this is the most recent bracket, but it's what I was working with:

If this isn't the most recent bracket, please let me know where you found an updated one. If your player is already eliminated, you truly know what it's like to be a Cubs fan, I guess.

Good luck!

Assume the Position: LF

Bad news and good news:

Bad News: The Cubs have terrible prospects at left field. There isn't even really a projectable major-league starter here (maybe Pin-Chieh Chen? Maybe?). It might be more barren than catcher.

Good News: The Cubs are loaded at CF and RF. It's extremely likely that one of those prospects could just slide over and play LF. Generally, that's how it works out. Who knows, maybe Vogelbach will play there if he makes to the big leagues (dying laughing)

      Last Year 2013 Career
  Name Age AVG OBP SLG wOBA pwOBA AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB Soriano 100 0.262 0.322 0.499 0.350 0.320 0.273 0.323 0.505 0.351
  Sappelt 26 0.275 0.351 0.449 0.345 0.294        
AAA Wright 28 0.287 0.348 0.435 0.346          
  Sappelt 26 0.264 0.313 0.374 0.306   0.256 0.314 0.369 0.302
  Adduci 28 0.306 0.377 0.435 0.359          
AA Adduci 28 0.294 0.367 0.409 0.357          
  Perez 25 0.205 0.282 0.402 0.311          
A+ Perez 25 0.278 0.380 0.494 0.395          
  Andreoli 23 0.289 0.402 0.376 0.369          
A Chen 21 0.259 0.345 0.347 0.324          
  Balaguert 20 0.208 0.232 0.262 0.228          
  Radamacher 22 0.213 0.273 0.287 0.263          
A- Kim 23 0.250 0.288 0.455 0.343          
Rk Dunston 20 0.185 0.254 0.323 0.275          

The average LF wOBA was .324 last year.

MLB

Alfonso Soriano is going to have to deal with father time sooner or later. My money is on "April 2013". Please trade this guy while you can get some semblance of value for him. Dave Sappelt was curiously competent in his limited time last year. It wasn't even BABIP magic (.293), it was solid contact and an atypical ISO. Sappelt is a natural CF but I imagine he could definitely spell Soriano periodically (if Hairston is a primary 1B relief, as I imagine he will be). Sappelt has exactly the required skillset of a 4th outfielder: he makes contact, draws walks, steals bases, and plays every outfield position passably. He also has a crush on Jasmine. I'm happy with Sappelt as my 25th man (definitely happier than if Campana was, sorry).

AAA

Ty Wright is basically just a warm body. He's 28, a AAA triple repeater, and has never really shown anything to be excited about. I'm not even sure he's on the team anymore, and it doesn't matter either way. I'm sure he's a really nice guy. All of that also qualifies to Jim Adduci, except I know for sure he's in the Rangers' minor league camp. 

AA

Nelson Perez loves striking out so much he does it around 30% of the time in the major leagues. He was able to walk for the first time in his career last year (up to 12% or so from a career 5%) which was great, but he still can't really hit at all and should triple-repeat AA this year. He's a non-prospect at this point.

A+

John Andreoli is a really intriguing guy in the fact that he has great plate discipline. Taken in the 17th round of the 2011 draft, Andreoli has (in 534 PA) amassed 95 strikeouts, 79 walks, and 26 extra base hits. I'll leave it to you to decide which of those 3 is the most shocking. He's 6' 1", 215, so I'm not sure he can "grow" into power without growing out of his outfield versatility, so his upside is probably a Sappelt-type. That's not a bad career to shoot for.

A

Pin-Chieh Chen is a contact machine much like Andreoli is. In Chen's case, he also has some power and a projectable frame (he could add 30 pounds and still be 15 lighter than Andreoli and stands the same height). He's got some speed and plays acceptable defense, but he'll either need to develop some more power with that frame or get better with the bat because his slap hitting isn't going to work in the majors unless he's Ichiro, which he's not. Yasiel Balaguert is a seriously badass name. He wasn't that good at baseball this year, though. He was a middling Cuban prospect when they signed him (December 30, 2011) and he had a pretty poor season last year (though he was mid-season promoted to A from R, which does say something). He's got plenty of time to figure things out but his first 283 PA were definitely forgettable. Same goes for Bijan Rademacher, except he's less of a prospect by virtue of being older.

A–

What a sweet name Dong-Yub Kim is. Seriously, that's a 60/70 name tool right there. His twitter handle is lovetome3181, which is either sort of creepy or just illustrates his deep love of old books. He's also not that good at baseball; he had to switch throwing arms due to labrum surgery, and he missed time in 2011 recoving from it. He's got a really small sample size, but it hasn't looked pretty.

Rk

Shawon Dunston Jr. is still only 20, but he was only so-so. Obviously waiting and seeing, as he is 6-2, 170, so he's got plenty of growing to do. I hope he makes it as a 4th OF because I DESPERATELY want to say "Dunston checks in" when he gets into the game.

All in all, not a very inspiring group of names (except for the ACTUAL names). The young people could pan out, but they probably won't. As I said, though: the Cubs are loaded at CF, and those guys will inevitably shift over, either because they can't play CF anymore or because LF gets them in the lineup earlier/easier.

Projected Lineups

MLB: Soriano/Sappelt

AAA: Wright?/NRI

AA: Perez/Andreoli

A+: Andreoli/Chen

A: Balaguert/Radamacher

A-: Dunston/Kim

Vogelbach on “Potential Top 100 prospects for 2014” list

On Baseball America, seven staff members were all asked to name a prospect not on the list that could make it next year.

Enter Conor Glassey:

Conor Glassey: Cubs first baseman Dan Vogelbach is only 20 years old, but he already has a long track record of turning doubters into believers. They doubt him by discounting his hefty, 6-foot, 260-pound frame and then believe in him after seeing him launch balls into the lights. Excluding the Latin summer leagues, just 15 players last year with 200 or more plate appearances had an OPS greater than 1.000. Only three of those players were younger than Vogelbach—Addison Russell (who ranked 48 on the list), David Dahl (53) and Joey Gallo, who just missed. But Vogelbach isn’t just a slugger—he has an excellent feel for hitting and working the count and posted a .322 batting average in 2012 between the Rookie-level Arizona League and short-season Boise. He’ll need to continue to improve his defense, but Vogelbach has one of the best all-around bats in the minor leagues.

It's really, really difficult for a 1B prospect to make these lists unless they are otherworldy talents (which Vogelbach is definitively not, at this point. GW correctly warns of the troubles with falling in love at A- and lower). I think only the overrated Jonathan Singleton made the list as a 1B this year (Mike Olt is still listed at 3B/1B), and he could (theoretically) play a corner outfielder (slightly more likely than Vogelbach doing the same). Last year, Anthony Rizzo was the only pure 1B in the Top 100. Keith Law also called him a brutal athlete.

It says a lot that a BA writer could peg Vogelbach as a "watch" for 2014. I'm inclined to agree with him; Vogelbach is slimmer, and I've always been of the opinion that body is overrated for a 1B. Playing 1B at the major league level is difficult; I'm not doubting that. However, he wouldn't even be the worst 1B in baseball if he started there tomorrow. There are also 15 (maybe 30 when Vogelbach is MLB-ready) teams that would have a "position" all lined up for him. While I'm slightly worried about the loss in mass hurting him the bat, he's still plenty large; he also has a hit tool so his game isn't even one-dimensional.

It'll take another season or so before I can be legitimately hyped about Vogelbach, but at least it appears I'm not alone in that assessment.

I'm just going to leave this here:

Daniel Vogelbach, MLB projection for 2013 (Oliver): .239/.311/.440

Mark Reynolds, MLB projection for 2013 (Oliver): .212/.322/.402

OV Bunt Tournament Contest!

Spring Training is finally here! The next month or so is probably my favorite part of the year, because it's when I can delude myself into thinking that maybe the Cubs could get close to resembling a competitive team, sorta. This year looks to be no different; I've tricked myself into thinking the Cubs could win 81 games this year.

Really, though, the reason Spring Training is so cool is because of one thing.

The Bunt Tournament!

In honor of this momentous occasion, we are going to hold a simple giveaway. The first 64 e-mail addresses left in the comments (one address per person and per comment, let's not be jerks) will be randomly assigned a player in the bunt tournament. If your player wins the whole thing, you win a copy of The Book by Tom Tango! 

Good luck, play to win!

Signups will run until I get 64 people, or Friday.

Note: We will remove your email from the comment once we collect it, so it's not just sitting out there for spambots

Assume the Position: 3B

The Cubs have a few interesting names at third, but most of them are quite far away. Depending on how you feel about Vitters (and Baez), you could see some pretty sub-standard production from the hot corner for quite a long time. Where's Aramis when you need him?

      Last Year 2013 Career
  Name Age AVG OBP SLG wOBA pwOBA AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB Valbuena 27 0.219 0.310 0.340 0.290 0.320 0.224 0.292 0.343 0.283
  Stewart 28 0.201 0.292 0.335 0.273 0.317 0.232 0.319 0.417 0.320
  Vitters 23 0.121 0.193 0.202 0.183 0.305 0.121 0.193 0.202 0.183
AAA Vitters 23 0.304 0.356 0.513 0.374          
  Hernandez 29 0.241 0.278 0.348 0.278          
AA Cerda 23 0.266 0.394 0.355 0.360          
  Harrington 24 0.256 0.275 0.359 0.290          
A+ Harrington 24 0.198 0.222 0.281 0.230          
  Villanueva 22 0.250 0.337 0.452 0.363          
A Darvill 22 0.224 0.285 0.306 0.275          
  Geiger 22 0.251 0.301 0.465 0.341          
A- Candelario 19 0.281 0.345 0.396 0.350          
  Bruno 22 0.357 0.438 0.492 0.438          
Rk Carhart 23 0.353 0.419 0.456 0.409          

The league average 3B wOBA was .320 last year.

MLB

Luis Valbuena was the de facto starter at third last year. He can draw a walk and play defense, but not much else. Valbuena is an average utility man that is somehow projected to hit like a league-average 3B next year. If he does that, he'll turn around and be really valuable. I'm not holding my breath. Ian Stewart hasn't been league-average in half of a decade. He says his wrist problems are behind him, but he made no mention of his swinging-strikes problem, so I assume that's still an issue. Josh Vitters was historically bad last year. I try to take solace in the fact that Rizzo's first circuit was awful also, but when you compare the two Vitters makes Rizzo look like Barry Bonds. He'll need to improve immensely.

AAA

Diory Hernandez is org filler who is going to filler some other org this year.

AA

Matt Cerda was stolen by our most hated rivals. He was actually quite intriguing; he had mediocre-to-poor power but a great batting eye. He might stick with a major league team in the near future, though he'll likely not be a star. Dustin Harrington split time between AA and A+, and he hit better in Tennessee. Still not impressive at all, though.

A+

Christian Villanueva didn't impress enough to stay on any Top 100 lists, but his season wasn't terrible. He's had some bad scouting reports (including one from Jason Parks on the Bleacher Nation Podcast) as far as great expectations, but I think they are somewhat overstated. Villanueva can be a very good major leaguer if he some things break right, but some things need to break right for basically every prospect ever so that's no surprise. I'd like to see less strikeouts, sure, but isn't that true for everyone also?

A

Wes Darvill doesn't sound like a baseball player, and he doesn't hit like one either. He's had 4 years in the Cubs organization and has look bad in about 4 of them. I think it's time for Wesley to dust off his resume. Dustin Geiger exploded for 17 home runs last year. He's improved every year as he's climbed the professional ranks. He needs a few more solid efforts to really be thought of as a major league contributor, though.

A-

Jeimer Candelario is a legitimate prospect in most people's estimations, but I have some definite reservations. People were really high on his plate discipline and frame in 2011. His walk rate tumbled to 8.4% last year (still good, but not overly impressive), his strikeouts ticked up (to a still-manageable level), and his BABIP regressed to a more reasonable .327. That was the main factor to his diminished line last year (.281/.345/.396, wRC+ of 113). If he can stick at 3B, a MLB line of .260/.330/.420 makes him league-average (and he might reach those or slightly higher?). At 1B, where I think he probably ends up, that's a AAAA player. I hope he surprises me (and much smarter men than me are very high on Candyman; Keith Law has him #106 overall), and he does have potential; I just don't see it happening. Stephen Bruno has hit the cover off the ball in his 292 professional plate appearances. He had a crazy, impossible .426 BABIP last year, so expect a huge drop in his numbers that might make you think much worse of his skills (he was also hit by an incredible 20 pitches last year). Bruno didn't walk last season, and that'll be an issue down the road. He also doesn't have the size comparable to Candelario; he gives up 4 inches, though only 5 pounds. 2013 will be interesting to see just how much Bruno will regress to the mean.

Rk

Ben Carhart annoys me because when you put that in FanGraphs, nothing comes up. He's only listed under Benjamin Carhart. He's got 155 professional PA. It's hard to really put much stock in that, though he did mash the ball and rarely strikeout. Who knows?

All in all, there are some okay pieces at third (the real prize is Baez at short, if he gets to the majors). Considering how good the Cubs' farm is these days, 3rd base is an area of relative weakness. There are some breakout candidates, though, and we'll see just how good these younger players are.

Projected Rosters

MLB: Stewart/Valbuena/(Lillibridge)

AAA: Vitters/Lake

AA: Villaneuva/Harrington

A+: Baez?/Geiger/Bruno

A: Candelario/Darvill/Bruno

A-: Carhart

Better Know a Cub: Jorge Soler

Last year was the final time that the Cubs could really flex their financial advantage on the IFA market. After missing on Yoenis Cespedes (who is incredible), the Cubs hit on two of the big-ticket Latin American players. The first was Gerardo Concepcion, who is pretty much a non-prospect at this point. The other is Jorge Soler, who looks like he could be a very good player. Soler signed a 9-year, 30 million dollar deal that will pay him through 2020 (though he can opt out and go to arbitration when that starts). The Cubs never pay him more than 4 million in a single year, and his last year years will be age 26, 27, and 28. That's what a nice IFA contract looks like.

Offense

Soler doesn't have a great batting stance, from what I've seen. He's sort of straight up, and his swing seems really hard on his lower back. That being said, he's got prototypical power from RF. He could hit 25-30 HR as long as his hit tool progresses like it should. He didn't strike out that much and walked well enough for the lower levels. His bat speed (it's great) should allow him to make decent contact, and hopefully he won't strike out a ton. Soler has pretty good speed so he should be able to maintain a higher-than-average BABIP and provide some value on the basepaths. He likes to steal bases (12/1 last year in 149 PA and 35 chances), so look for that to be a part of his game in the future as well.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
2012 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-Rk CHC 34 149 134 28 40 7 0 5 25 12 1 12 19 .299 .369 .463 .832 62 3 3 0 0 2
2012 20 Cubs ARIZ Rk CHC 14 61 54 14 13 2 0 2 10 8 0 6 13 .241 .328 .389 .717 21 0 1 0 0 0
2012 20 Peoria MIDW A CHC 20 88 80 14 27 5 0 3 15 4 1 6 6 .338 .398 .513 .910 41 3 2 0 0 2
1 Season       34 149 134 28 40 7 0 5 25 12 1 12 19 .299 .369 .463 .832 62 3 3 0 0 2

Defense

Some scouts say that Soler's arm is his best tool. He has a consensus cannon from RF, and the speed to play the position very well. Soler should be a plus defender in the big leagues; however, I wonder why he isn't tried out at CF (probably because he doesn't have plus speed). Scouts also say he has poor routes; I expect that to be fixed by the minor league coaching.

Summary

Soler is very, very raw. He didn't have much competition in Cuba, and the level of competition he faced is maybe comparable to Low-A. He's going to work through the minors as slowly as a normal high-school prospect. He'll need to learn how to hit good pitches, and he'll probably have to clean up his stance a little bit. On the plus side, he's got plenty of tools in the toolbox. He's got legit plus power and a plus arm. He's got more than enough speed to be a great RF and the bat speed to be competitive in the majors. There is significant risk to Jorge Soler, but the upside is huge.

Seattle just lost their minds

Felix Hernandez is an incredible pitcher. I'd take Clayton Kershaw over him, sure, and maybe Matt Cain. Other than that, though, Felix might be the most valuable pitcher in the game today.

That being said, he's not worth 7 years and $25 million a year. No pitcher is (or, I should say, was), unless he is vintage Pedro or Maddux. Unfortunately (for the Mariners), that's exactly what's about to happen.

What baffles me isn't the amount of money on an annual basis. Hernandez is a demonstrably better pitcher than Zack Greinke, who has an AAV of $24.5 million. What baffles me is the timing: Felix had 2 years left before he was slated to be a free agent. The Mariners are agreeing to take on an insane amount of risk with absolutely no compensation. If the Mariners got a hometown discount on Hernandez, I shudder to think what his fair-market value is.

Here's a thought experiment for you. Take 10 pitchers at random. How many of them have not missed a start to injury in the past 7 years? Statistically, probably 2? 1? Catastrophic injuries happen to pitchers all the time, lesser injuries to almost every pitcher. Hernandez already has 1620 major league under his belt. I'd wager the probability that the Mariners get a positive ROI with Hernandez is around 5%.

They aren't even in contention right now! The mind boggles.

What this does mean is that the market for Bourn probably just shrunk by one team (unless the Mariners are really stepping it up to compete this year). That's a good thing for the Cubs. Chicago doesn't have a great chance at Bourn, but it grows nearly every day…

Assume the Position: SS

The future at SS is pretty bright. The Cubs' minor league system features a consensus Top 20 prospect (albeit one with a low floor), an organizational Top 15 prospect (albeit one with a huge issue), and a guy that has incredible tools (though SS might not be his final destination). Without further ado, lets get to it.

      Last Year       2013 Career      
  Name Age AVG OBP SLG wOBA pwOBA AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB Castro 23 0.283 0.323 0.430 0.323 0.341 0.297 0.336 0.425 0.330
AAA Tolbert 31 0.240 0.313 0.304 0.282          
AA Lake 23 0.248 0.300 0.380 0.356          
  Soto 23 0.220 0.310 0.282 0.286          
A+ Alcantara 21 0.302 0.339 0.447 0.356          
  Baez 20 0.188 0.244 0.400 0.288          
A Baez 20 0.333 0.383 0.596 0.432          
  Hernandez 20 0.210 0.249 0.299 0.251          
A- Hernandez 20 0.283 0.306 0.413 0.333          
Rk Penalver 19 0.273 0.341 0.322 0.321          

The league average SS had a wOBA of .300 last season.

MLB

Starlin Castro is the real deal. 2012 was arguably his worst season as a professional: he was still 7th among qualified shortstops last year in wOBA. He turns 23 this year: we are lucky to have him. Sure, he could walk more or commit fewer errors, but there comes a point when you just have to accept that Castro isn't perfect, but he does a ton of things very well, and he's improving as a player in many areas.

AAA

Only Matt Tolbert's parents care about Matt Tolbert. He's over 30 and can't hack it in the PCL. I can't find information regarding his status with the club: I'm assuming he's gone, and he should be. 

AA

Junior Lake is a curious sort. He's got incredible tools (the only 80 arm in baseball, according to some scouts), and he's generated some pretty decent numbers in his slog through the minors. The knock on Lake is his apparent inability to hit a baseball (or field one, either). He's got Brett Jackson-like strikeout numbers, but he doesn't walk like Brett Jackson does (though his walks aren't always completely terrible). He's been in the Cubs' system for 5 years now and only made it to AA: some people thought he was going to beat Castro up to SS and that obviously hasn't happened. He should break with AAA this year, maybe at 3B, and have one last year to put it together. Their is clear talent there, but it may never materialize. (Aside: I saw him play in person once during the 2011 season. He looked like complete dogshit, for what's it's worth (almost nothing.)) Elliot Soto is an afterthought, as many who can't outslug their OBP are.

A+

Arismendy Alcantara showed some pop last year (.145 ISO) and some speed (24 SB), two parts of his game that are relatively new in the toolbox. Alcantara is cutting down on the strikeouts as he ages: this is a good thing, because they were at a terrible rate. Arismendy does not walk nearly enough to get by, so he'll really need to cut down on strikeouts if he wants to play in the majors some day. He's moving in the right direction; an increase in his walk rate would elevate him to the next level of prospecthood.

Javier Baez is the real deal. He annihilated A ball this year, with an absurd .263 ISO and .432 wOBA. Just for shits, I put in his Peoria numbers into a MLE generator, and his line was .235/.269/.377: that OPS is basically Yunel Escobar or Alexei Ramirez or Stephen Drew. He can definitely field SS: the reservations on that have basically been laid to rest. He's no sure thing, and he did struggle in a late-season promotion to A+. I'm not at all worried about that, though: his BABIP in A+ was .200: his walk numbers were actually up (and his K%), and his power was still a very nice .213 ISO. There are whispers that Baez could just start 2013 in AA. I'm not sure I like that (Alcantara deserves to start there), but it would be a nice sign that the Cubs FO is as in love with Baez as we are.

A

Marco Hernandez is an all-glove prospect. He draws rave reviews for his defense, and in A- he even hit fairly well (he puts the ball in play with alarming frequency). The wheels fell off in a promotion to A ball, and he's got plenty of interesting prospects in front of him. If he grows into his size, he might get some more power (he has some already) and be a really interesting piece; if he doesn't, he might end up on a major league roster some day as a backup middle infielder. 

A-

None. Hernandez was here, and got promoted. Stephen Bruno is a 3B prospect, to me.

Rk

Carlos Penalver actually has quite a bit of data on him (516 PA over two years). He's shown an ability to take walks and put the ball in play… but he has very, very little power (see Elliot Soto for my thoughts on people with OBP higher than SLG). I can't pretend to know his body (6-0, 170, so he'll likely grow into some power), but it has to be encouraging to see a 19-year old with his plate discipline. He's still a few years away from being in the periphery.

There are some huge talents here. Baez is the #1 prospect in the organization. Alcantara and Hernandez or almost certainly in the Top 15, and Lake has more tools than both of them (and might be in my Top 15 or so as well). All of this is moot because the guy in the majors is already a franchise cornerstone. SS is one of the hardest positions to fill, and the Cubs are absolutely loaded with prospects there (even if Baez ends up at 3B (which I doubt unless it's because of Castro), Lake ends up at LF, and Alcantara ends up at 3B) . Get happy!

Projected Rosters

MLB: Castro/Barney

AAA: NRI (Lake will play 3B, likely?)

AA: Alcantara/Soto

A+: Baez

A: Hernandez

A-: Penalver

 

Interview with Tom Tango (aka tangotiger)

As most of you probably know, Tom Tango now exclusively consults with the Cubs. This is incredible news: Tom Tango, also knows as tangotiger, is one of the greatest baseball minds in the game today. Many of the foundational statistics that we have today come from The Book, the spiritual successor to The Hidden Game of Baseball. Mr. Tango has graciously agreed to answer some questions that I (and Berselius and dmick) had for him. 

Note: I can't ask about the Cubs, specifically (there are NDAs about that sort of thing).

Obstructed View: Where do you want to be 10 years from now? Do you aspire to be a GM?

Tom: More of the same, I think. I have no desire to be a GM.

Obstructed View: How did you end up meeting MGL?

Tom: We both posted at an old baseball forum called BaseballBoards.com, which later became Fanhome. Voros, Patriot, David Smyth were also some of the posters there. (Note: How incredible would it have been to be in that environment?)

Obstructed View: I worry sometimes that my father might misunderstand sabermetrics because the barrier to entry is too high. Are you ever afraid that advanced statistics are off-putting to people who might just be getting into baseball, or are already overmuch familiar with low-quality stats like RBI and Wins? Do you have recommendations on ways to introduce advanced stats to those who may not be comfortable with all of the math, or is it just not for them?

Tom: I'm not worried about it being off-putting. Everyone should be comfortable with wherever they are.

I think the reliance on RBI and Pitcher Wins is a barrier, but as we saw with Felix and others, pitcher wins is starting to erode.

I think picking up an old Bill James Baseball Abstract through inter-library loan is the best way.

Obstructed View: The Book came out in 2006, almost 7 years ago. What part of it do you think has held up the best and what part do you think has held up the worst?

Tom: Sales every year has been pretty constant, which means it's getting pretty good word-of-mouth. Looking back, I don't think there's any one part that is better or worse in terms of timelessness. We wrote the book on the idea that it would be timeless.

Obstructed View: What aspect of baseball do you think is least understood, from a statistics standpoint? What is holding the sabermetric community back as far as exploring that subject?

Tom: Least understood by who? The only thing holding back the community is access to the relevant data. Without data, we have no way to test the hypothesis.

Obstructed View: Whose work in baseball do you most respect from a statistics standpoint? Whose work in baseball do you most respect from an “old-school” standpoint?

Tom: There are plenty of people. Bill James, Pete Palmer, MGL, Andy Dolphin, Tom Tippett, Dan Fox. Really, it's a very long list, and I can spit out another dozen names or three if you give me a few minutes. I'm just really happy to be part of such a community.

Obstructed View: What statistic do you like the most that you DIDN’T invent? Any moments where you were surprised someone “got there” before you did?

Tom: Well, Voros invented DIPS, which is about the most important finding in the last 15 years. Pete Palmer introduced us to Linear Weights. I'm never surprised, since everyone has their own creative input. We're all building on the work of others.

Your question seems to suggest some single-lane race, when really, it's about all of us on some scavenger hunt, coming from all over the world, picking up items on our journey, and agreeing to meet at Times Square, and see what we can all share with each other by the time we get there. It's cooperation, not competition.

Obstructed View: Many managers have started to embrace the new thinking as far as sabermetrics are concerned. In your opinion, will people with a purely statistical background ever be on-field coaches, giving strategic advice? How far away might we be from having, say, Dave Cameron advising Eric Wedge on when to use his bullpen?

Tom: I don't even know what "purely statistical background" means. Are you suggesting someone who only has a vocation in some various mathematical disciplines, but has no baseball experience at all? That would be the worst person to put on the field. You need a subject matter expert, and that means someone who lives and breathes baseball as the first requirement. 

Obstructed View: I'm afraid I may of framed the question incorrectly. I meant to say someone who perhaps never played baseball at a high level, but has a masterful grasp of the percentages and that sort of thing. With Billy Beane, Theo Epstein, Andrew Friedman, etc. changing the way front offices operate, I was curious if you thought that a similar thing might happen in the dugout (if it hasn't happened already). I think some managers are becoming much more receptive to the idea of using more and more specialized stats already.

Tom: Ah, I see. Well, I'm not really qualified to answer that question.

Obstructed View: How important do you think FIELD f/x will be as far as clearing up defensive metrics? Will we ever get to a place where fielding is as well understood as hitting? Should FIELD f/x ever be made public?

Tom: Tracking player movements and ball movement is critical. We do it all the time with our eyes. So, now we need to have a systematic, precise way to do all that on a large scale. A system that does that will remove all the uncertainty we currently have.

Obstructed View: From previous interviews, I know that you aren't a fan of the current system of the Hall of Fame. Do you think there is a place in the hall for sabermetricians and internet writers to have a say in who gets in? Do you think we'll live to see the day where someone like Bill James gets inducted for his contributions to baseball?

Tom: There's some really passionate fans out there, who devote their time and energy on baseball and its history and they don't get paid for it. Any time I run my many polls, I'm quite happy with the results I get. The IBA shows how you can have a good system with good fans produce good results.

Obstructed View: Anyone who has heard you speak about Rock Raines knows you believe he’s a no-doubt Hall-of-Famer. In my mind, Edgar Martinez is in the same boat – his numbers look to me like he’s better than maybe half of the Hall (not to mention that 3B are SORELY underrepresented in the Hall), and he hasn’t really received any support (languishing in the
mid-30’s). With the growing backlog of worthy players that will “take votes away” from Gar, he most likely won’t make it in until the Veteran’s Committee, if at all. Do you think Edgar should make the Hall? Do you think he will?

Tom: If you think a Hall of Fame should have about 20-25 new members every ten years, then Edgar would likely be part of that group. If you think it should be 10-15, he's probably outside that group.  If you think it should be 30-35 members, he's easily inside that group. So, you have to first decide the size of your hall of fame. The readers on my site have suggested that we should have 20-25 new members every ten years.

Obstructed View: Are there any players in particular that you think are “better than their numbers?”

Tom: It's a given that some players are better than they've performed so far, and others are worse. It's just a sampling issue.

Obstructed View: What topic would you most like to research, but haven’t been able to?

Tom: There's a long list of things, and I'm really happy that we've got a broad community that someone somewhere is addressing each one and will eventually publish it.

Obstructed View: How good are these Blackhawks? Are they for real?

Tom: I've only been following the Canadiens and Devils so far, but eventually, I'll pick up on a few more teams. I still they think have the best uniform in all of pro sports in USA/Canada.

Thanks again to Tom Tango for answering the questions.