Author: myles

Some interesting news came out today – namely, the fact that Stanton would only accept a trade to the Dodgers, Cubs, Astros, and Yankees. With that in mind, the Cubs would be pretty foolish not to consider kicking the tires on a trade for Stanton. That said, the "value" in his contract is pretty non-existent. Let's take a look.

Stanton just finished is age-27 season (at an MVP caliber). He's owed 10/$295 MM over the rest of the contract (barring a team option for the 11th year that would add $15 MM). If Stanton were a free agent RIGHT NOW, I'm not sure he'd get 10/$295,000,000, especially if you consider the fact that he's not likely to ever have a year as good as 2017 again. In fact, the median bWAR for his past 5 years is 3.7. If we slot Stanton for 6 WAR in 2018 (which is a monster projection), and debit .5 WAR every year afterwards (a lenient aging curve), a 10 year deal at a current rate of $8 million per win adjusted 4% annually for inflation is around $347 MM. That's $50 MM in surplus value, but only if Stanton doesn't get injured (not likely over a decade), declines gracefully (about as likely as not), and assumes that the burden of a $300 million contract doesn't affect other operations (which is probably true considering the market). I think that the Stanton contract is probably fair market at this point, which means that the Cubs would have to actively want him to give much in terms of value. 

Once we've established that fact, any money the Marlins send to the Cubs to complete the deal would be essentially buying prospects from the Cubs. Does that sound like something the Cubs should do? I'm not sure, but I lean against it. If we sold Happ for, say, $60 MM, I could get behind that just from the perspective of having Stanton in RF and Heyward in CF, but I'm not champing at the bit for the opportunity to part with Happ if we aren't getting pitching or something. 

At the end of the day, Stanton is a luxury the Cubs could probably afford, but the Cubs need some other pieces before they need Stanton. There's no doubt they could make it work, and there will be a point when it makes sense to float some offers out there (Stanton for Heyward and Russell?), but I'm not holding my breath.

I thought it might be interesting to track the difference in walk rates and strikeout rates for the Cubs that had meaningful AB for the team both this year and last (Schwarber excepted – I used his 2015 numbers). The upper left quadrant is good (increased walks, decreased strikeouts), and the bottom right quadrant is the worst (decreased walks, increased strikeouts).

There isn't that much to say here. The three people you thought regressed this year did. It's somewhat encouraging to see so many people in the best quadrant.

I don't want this to be the main thread, so I'm going to comment back to other thread.

Playoff baseball never really gets old. Confession time: I've seen maybe 30 games this year. Maybe less. Part of that is having a 1-year old (and a 4-year old), but most of it is the fact that Cubs already did the damn thing. Furthermore, we pretty much all knew in the back of our minds that we were going to be at least competing for the division. I've watched more over the home stretch, but one of the beauties of baseball is that it is there whether you want to watch today or not. There is nearly always a game tomorrow.

Except in the playoffs.

Playoff baseball is a different atmosphere entirely. Individual games carry more meaning. Losing a 1-0 game to Clayton Kershaw isn't a big deal when it happens in the regular season, but when it happens Game 2 of the NLCS, you remember that thing for a long time (we had our revenge, of course). It's here, and we are here for it.

First Base

Ryan Zimmerman had a revival of sorts this season, with a .303/.358/.573 line. He crushes lefties, but is not slouch against right-handers either. He's about as mobile as a Maoi, but when you trot around the bases, you can take as long as you want. As good as Zimmerman is, Rizzo is still a hair better this year (.272/.392/.507). Zimmerman has more pop, but Rizzo gets on base more often. In the playoffs, I think I tend towards SLG (the probability of any positive event is lower against good pitching, but HR still give you a run regardless of who you hit one off of), but Rizzo is still better ENOUGH that I lean Rizz here.

Second Base

Daniel Murphy fell back to Earth slightly this year, but still had the second best year of his career (.322/.384/.543). He rarely strikes out (13.0%), has some pop (23 HR), and killed the Cubs in the playoffs two years ago. I hate Daniel Murphy. He's clearly a better player than Javier Baez (.273/.317/.480), but funnily enough the differential in their lines (.049/.067/.063) more or less just points out to a single every 20 at bats and a walk every 60 plate appearances. I'd like to think that Baez is a single better than Murphy over 4 games defensively, in which case they may be more evenly matched than you'd think at first blush. I lean Murphy here, but don't be at all surprised if Baez takes over the series.

Shortstop

Trea Turner is back from his injury, and he's a dynamic player on the basepaths (46 SB in 54 attempts) and with the glove (one of the best defenders in the league). Addison Russell is about as good defensively, maybe even better, but it's been a lost season for him at the plate and at home. Turner is definitively better than Russell at this point in time and a clear advantage goes to the Nationals.

Third Base

Both of these players were MVP candidates this year: Kris Bryant slashed .295/.409/.537 with 29 HR and good defense, and Rendon hit the trinity slash (.301/.403/.533) with 25 HR and very good defense (which surprised me – he has always struck me as solidly mediocre there but numbers have loved him his whole career). Since they are similar, I tend to view this as a push.

Catcher

This is a good old-fashioned rout. People might not realize how good Willson Contreras is, but he's one of (if not the) best catchers in baseball today. Offensively, his wOBA (.362) was third among catchers with 400 or more PA (behind Sanchez and Posey), and he's way better than either of those players defensively. A lack of plate appearances is the only reason he didn't lead the league in WAR for catchers and that's not a consideration in this series. Contreras will catch every single game in this series unless he's injured or Joe Maddon out-thinks himself. On the other hand, Matt Wieters is below replacement-level and Jose Labaton is below Wieters-level. The gap between Contreras and Wieters represents perhaps the largest gap at any position in this round of the playoffs for any team (maybe Severino vs. Santana).

Right Fielder

Houston, we have a problem. I'm assuming that Heyward will play here, even though I would start Happ (and Jay in center). While Bryce Harper might not be 100%, he's clearly way better than Jason Heyward. Harper had an OPS of 1.008 this year, while Heyward sported a .715. Heyward is still a defensive genius, though even that is not as overtly obvious as it used to be. Heyward is clearly outclassed by Harper. So is Happ, but at least that is closer. They both hit righties better, so a platoon wouldn't work here, but I think from a power perspective Happ has to be the play here, with Heyward coming in as a defensive replacement/pinch hitter. 

Center Fielder

I think Jon Jay will probably see the majority of run in center field, which at this point is the right play. A .374 OBP with speed at the top of the lineup is about all you can ask for; a poor man's Dexter Fowler is still a rich man indeed. Jay is a bad fielder at center, but he isn't so bad that you can't leave him there all series. Michael Taylor struggled initially after coming from a July injury, but turned it on in September. Still, he's a career .702 OPS guy. I think this is mostly a push, though Taylor has had the slightly better year (and is the better defender). 

Left Fielder

Schwarber, to my eyes, is still one of the 3 best hitters on the whole freaking team (Bryant and Rizzo, obviously). If you take only the past 30 days, that's even borne out by the stats. Unfortunately, the rest of the year happened; we can't pretend it didn't. Still, Schwarber is a dangerous hitter who hit 30 HR (1 more than Bryant!) and walked over 12% of the time during a season in which he struck out over 30% of at bats. Schwarber is exactly the type of player that translates well to playoff baseball. His counterpart is either Jayson Werth or Howie Kendrick; Werth had a worse season with the stick than Schwarber did, and Kendrick notched under 200 PA this year (though acquitted himself admirably in those plate appearances). I think Schwarber is a better player than either, though I'm not overlooking the possibility that he either doesn't get the opportunity to play or fails when he does.

Bench

The Cubs have the definitive edge here, with Ben Zobrist and Ian Happ being excellent guys to play in a pinch (or even start). Alex Avila is a better catcher than anyone on the Nationals staff. The "dare to be great" option would be Victor Robles, who is going to be one of those guys that challenges for the MVP on a yearly basis. I'm super high on Robles. He may break Rizzo's stranglehold on yearly HBP totals, and he's a 20-year old offensive dynamo that plays top-level CF. Seems good, though he may be a year away from his coming out party.

Ace

Max Scherzer is knocking on the door of "greatest living pitcher." Kershaw is better on a per-inning basis, but Scherzer repeatedly gives you 200 innings a year, which Kershaw can't say. In fact, over the past 8 years, Scherzer's fewest innings pitched was 187.2. He's nursing a slight hamstring kerfluffle, but I don't think it'll matter too much. The fact that I can't come up with a Cubs "ace" pretty much tells you what you need to know here. I think Quintana is probably the best pitcher on the Cubs at this current moment, but I lean towards Hendricks as the Game 1 starter. Hendricks has quietly amassed the 11th most fWAR in the NL over the past 3 years (7th over the past 2), and he's done it by allowing the softest contact in the league over that span. It seems self-evident that softer contact leads to lower BABIP, and the soft contact that Hendricks allows seems to be the primary driver in why he beats his FIP on a routine basis. I'd take Scherzer over Hendricks, but it's not a rout.

#2

Stephen Strasburg, when healthy, is about as good as anyone in the league (2.52 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 22.4% K-BB%). He's healthy, and that's a problem for the Cubs. Jose Quintana is very durable and quite good, but his top-end talent simply isn't on Strasburg's level, which is what is important in the playoffs. Advantage here goes to the Nationals.

#3

There's a significant gap from Strasburg to Gio Gonzalez, but Gonzalez is no slouch either. He outpitched his FIP by a lot this year after inpitching (?) it by the same margin last year: I consider Gonzalez to be a pretty good #3 but someone that is very attackable. When healthy, Jake Arrieta is a better pitcher, but it's very close to a toss-up as far as which one I'd rather have right now. I'd probably lean Gonzalez, but the spread of what I expect from Arrieta is so huge that I have no idea who will show up. 

#4

This space left blank for the Nationals, who won't trot out a 4th pitcher in this series. The Cubs will go to Lester (in all honesty, Lester will probably start Game 1 for "reasons"). Lester has the playoff pedigree and when he hasn't imploded, he's been very good. Unfortunately, he's detonated several times this year, and I'm not sure he's even 100% healthy right now. I just really hope Maddon has a quick hook if trouble presents itself (I can't believe I'm typing this).

Bullpen

The Nationals had a horrific bullpen until they acquired Kintzler, Madson, and Doolittle. Now, it's among the best in all of baseball. Fun. The Cubs will counter with Edwards, Strop, and Davis, a very fine trio in their own right. The Cubs have a deeper pen than the Nationals. That rarely comes into play in a best-of-5 series, but if the games become bullpen affairs, that's where the Cubs want to be (in no small part due to our much deeper bench). 

Macro Offense

The Nationals and Cubs have extremely similar offense lineups. The Nationals are a more adventurous team on the basepaths, but that may well be neutralized by Contreras. The Cubs scored 3 more runs than the Nationals thi syear. They had 6 points more of OBP and 12 less of slugging. They sport identical wOBA, and are both at full strength (after having both SS miss significant time). The Cubs have a slightly more even lineup, and the Nationals' production is a little spikier (which I tend to favor in the playoffs). No team has a clear advantage here.

Macro Defense

The Cubs are a better defensive team, but it isn't like it was last year when they were the best defensive team in the history of the world. I give the nod to the Cubs, but an outfield of Schwarber/Jay/Happ begs to be tested, and it will.

Macro Pitching

I think the Nationals are better, and it's clear but close. The advantage is somewhat overblown in my opinion, but it's definitely there. If the Cubs' pitchers hit their 2016 levels of performance, this matchup is essentially dead even, and that's what I'm hanging my hat on. 

Conclusion

I think the Nationals deserve to be the slight favorite in this series. First, they are the home team. Second, they have the better pitching staff, and the offenses are a wash. While every intangible from game management to bench to back-end bullpen favors the Cubs, those aren't typically the things that decide baseball games. Would it surprise me if the Cubs won this series? Absolutely not. Do I expect them to win the series? Yeah, I do. I expect the Cubs to win every series until they lose one. Should a rational, unbiased observer expect the Cubs to win this series? No. The smart pick is probably Nationals in 5. Cubs are clinching this in 4 games. The Nationals suck. Let's beat their brains in.

Cubs 14, Mets 6 (9/14/2017)

Three Up

1. Anthony Rizzo leads baseball in WPA. Did you know that? Don't lie. You totally didn't. 

Seriously, admit it. You didn't know that.

…

…

Why do you always do this? It's ok to admit when you don't know something. Nobody is going to think less of you if you don't know that Anthony Rizzo leads all of baseball in WPA. In fact, people KNOW when you're lying. Remember the holiday party two years ago? That time when you said that you definitely knew that Christopher Jackson was in Lin-Manuel Miranda's other musical before Hamilton, but then you COULDN'T EVEN NAME THE MUSICAL!?!? It was embarrassing.

…

God, this is so frustrating! You don't have to be a fucking walking encyclopedia! I've seen you play Jeopardy!. You aren't as smart as you think you are. You think you're Ken Jennings, and you aren't even a Tom Nissley. Everyone knows that you just say what the contestant said half a second later, and when nobody gets it, you ALWAYS. FUCKING. SAY. YOU. KNEW. IT. IF YOU FUCKING KNEW IT, WHY DIDN'T YOU FUCKING SAY IT!?!?!?!?!?

I WANT A FUCKING DIVORCE, DAVE.

Anthony Rizzo went 3-4 with a HR, double, 2 runs, and 2 RBI.

2. Kyle Schwarber went 2-3 with a double. It was a nice performance, and he's been pretty good lately.

3. Jason Heyward is having another lost season, but he did have a 3-run HR that was never in doubt. 

Three Down

1. Joe Maddon decided that was a reward for winning Minor League Pitcher of the Year in the Cubs organization, that he'd start Jen-Ho Tseng in the middle of a division race. I imagine he thought it was fun, and apocryphal should Tseng dominate. He didn't; in fact, his 6th pitch of his first PA went behind Reyes (wouldn't have hurt him, as Tseng works in the mid-80s). Tseng struck out 6 in 3 innings, but that also the number of hits plus walks he allowed and only one more than the number of runs. He sucked, and 

2. his battery mate sucked too. While Taylor Davis went 1-1 (yay!), he couldn't field his position. The Cubs have 4 catchers, including one (Caratini) that has ALREADY CAUGHT TSENG BEFORE. Caratini also won the Minor League Hitter of the Year in the Cubs organization, but apparently Maddon doesn't give a fuck about that.

3. Ian Happ had a golden sombrero, and that's just going to be part of his game.

Next Up

Cardinals @ Cubs, 1:20 PM CST (ABC 7/670 the Score)

Carlos Martinez (3.33 ERA, 200K) vs John "Ratsbane" Lackey (4.65 ERA, 200 HR allowed)

Will the Cubs Win?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMp8aDH8d9M

OSS: Cubs finally score more runs than they allow.

Three Up:

1. Kyle Schwarber went 3-3 with a HR and a walk. If only he stopped doing so much god damn charity work, he might have went 4 for 3, right Alvin?

2. Kris Bryant hit a 3-run bomb and silenced all of Cubs RISP Twitter. I get the impression that people understand SSS when it's over a short period of time, but absolutely do not understand it when it's over a long period of time or with infrequent trials. 

3. Jose Quintana has earned my respect with 7 innings of 2-run ball. I'll have to come up with a new nickname. 

Three Down:

1. So Justin Wilson may not make the postseason roster, should it come to that. In what was the world's clearest "throw strikes" scenario, Wilson couldn't get the ball over the plate. He was staked 6 runs and did not get through the inning. He injured; either physically, mentally, or both.

2. With the bases loaded in the first inning and one away, Ian Happ grounded into a double play. He redeemed himself with a HR later on in the game, but that really hurt. He also struck out with men on first and second and two out.

3. I think I pick on Joe Maddon a little too much, but when Baez doubled in the 6th after Quintana was at a hundred pitches you just knew that he was batting for himself and you were going to be frustrated. It worked out in this instance, but the process was poor. Rosters are expanded and you don't need your pitcher to get through the 7th (though with this bullpen, maybe you do!). 

Next Up

7:05 PM CST, WGN/670 the Score

Fatt Harvey (5.82 ERA, really really sucks) vs Jon Lester (4.35 ERA, hopefully doesn't injure himself)

Will the Cubs Win?

If you can't beat Matt Harvey, then you really, really, really don't deserve to make the playoffs. Fun fact about Harvey: he's horrible. He might not be able to start for the Reds.

OSS: That fucking 8th inning.

Three Up

1. Kyle Hendricks was pretty solid today. He didn't walk a single batter (only 2 strikeouts, so lots of balls in play). He made one bad mistake to David Freese, but allowed no other runs on the day.

2. Ian Happ had a 2-run single that would give the Cubs a 3-2 lead they took all the way to the 8th inning.

3. Nice to see Baez back in action after a short injury. Two hard hit balls today, but only one found grass.

Three Down

1. Carl Edwards Jr. had a WPA of -.505 today. That tells you pretty much all you need to know. He allowed 5 baserunners and secured 4 outs, a ratio more suited to Donald Trump's tweets than good pitching.

2. Jon Jay failed to score with 2 on and 2 out, and also struck out in the 9th inning in a particularly bad AB.

3. Carl Edwards Jr. was so bad today, that I decided to give him this spot too.

Tomorrow's Game

6:05 pm CST

Jose "And we go to the Top of the 2nd. Pirates 3, Cubs nothing." Quintana vs. Gerrit "I don't even think the Golden State Warriors are the best team in their division" Cole

Will the Cubs Win?

Does a bear shit in the international space station?

Baseball can be an exceedingly cruel game. The best hitters are defined as the ones that fail merely 60% of the time they come to the plate. Throwing the ball means always being a pitch away from the disabled list and an uncertain future. The path to success is littered with the failures of near-identical men and the smell of burnt rubber in a forgotten town, pitching in front of 2,000 indifferent fans only there for dollar hot dog night.

Dillon Maples was drafted with 429th pick of the 2011 June amateur draft. The reason he wasn't taken in the first round wasn't talent; he had as much talent as anyone drafted that year. In fact, Dillon Maples was among the best baseball players the state of North Carolina has EVER produced: a cannon for an arm, throwing 96 mph with a highly projectable curve mixed in. He was taken in the 14th round and he took $2.5 million to sign only because he was already betrothed to UNC, a college baseball powerhouse that had produced a 1st round in the draft that year (Levi Michael), the year before (Matt Harvey), and two the year before that (Dustin Ackley and Alex White). Furthermore, he was also a FOOTBALL standout, planning to play both sports in the collegiate ranks. Of course, nobody is undraftable, just unsignable, and the Cubs worked out a deal with Maples back when draft money was essentially infinite.

The ceiling was sky-high for Maples, but the problems were evident immediately. There was no tertiary offering; he'd need to develop one or he'd quickly have to become a reliever. The delivery was violent; most 97mph pitches are. His inverted-W arm movement practically guaranteed problems. Most importantly, he couldn't repeat his delivery with any regularity. This is a common problem with high school pitchers – many of them are so talented, so much better than their peers, with coaches so ill-equipped to teach the finer points of where your foot strikes the mound – that it is nearly inevitable. This is exactly the type of problem that followed Jake Arrieta around for the first 4 years of his professional career. He'd get out of sync with himself, and it would take 6-10 pitches to find it. Arrieta has a unique, cross-body throwing motion, one that lends itself to unique problems for a pitching coach. Maples had some similar issues – not with a crossbody throwing motion per se – but with a weird tilt towards 3rd base during his delivery that made release points extremely inconsistent.

Maples would get his first taste of action in 2012, with a stop in Rookie ball. He faced 50 batters; he walked 10 of them and hit 3 others. He threw 6 wild pitches. He hurt his forearm.

Traditionally, the 14th round is where organizations start to draft filler guys. Someone has to be the 4th guy out of the bullpen for Tennessee, and for every roster spot, there are dozens of strapping young men with a slider and a dream willing to work for below minimum wage. Guys that are drafted in the 14th round with xFIPs above 6 and sore forearms generally don't return to baseball the next year – unless, of course, you are a 7-figure investment with the organization's best curveball in the minor leagues. Dillon would rehab and be promoted to Kane County to start 2013. The promotion was aggressive, and it showed. The walks came back: 31 in 34.2 innings pitched. Hit-luck masked his earlier minor league stop- this time, he paid the piper and allowed a staggering 8 runs per 9. Consistency continued to be an issue. Again, I have to stress that if the Cubs didn't have over 2 million reasons to keep Maples, there is almost no chance they would have. They decided to demote him to Boise. He would look considerably better in this extended tour of duty: 42 innings pitched, 41 strikeouts, a 2.14 ERA back by a 3.29 FIP. Most importantly, some of the wildness associated with his delivery had abated. He was ready on track to hopefully regain some confidence in 2014.

That didn't happen. Maples broke a rib, and with it broke any momentum he may have had. He walked more batters than he struck out. He had a wild pitch for every 6 baserunners he allowed, a number that is frankly obscene. Maples would have tied for 2nd in the majors that year in wild pitches for a starter, but while pitcher he would shared that spot with had faced 901 batters (Trevor Cahill, improbably enough), he faced only 151.

For the last time, I can't stress this enough: this is where the story is supposed to end. Talented but wildly inconsistent high-school pitcher flames out due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness. In Maples' case, he probably goes back to college and plays WR for a Division II school. In Maples' case, he'd get one more shot – this time, as a reliever who took a few mph OFF his fastball in the hopes of quieting his delivery and refining his command.

Dillon would start the year in Eugene for 3 appearances. The first was middling, and the second was atrocious- 2 hit batters in 7 batters faced, and 4 runs allowed. After an encouraging 3rd appearance, he was promoted to South Bend – Maples can't waste time because he doesn't have time left. For nearly any prospect, being 23, in single-A, and striking out 5.64 batters per 9 would be a soul-crushing experience. For Maples, it was irrelevant. He was healthy enough to finish the season, and for the first time his entire professional career, he walked fewer than 4 per 9 innings. South Bend had proved that the tools were there to be a complete pitcher – definitely not as a starter, but as a relief pitcher that would could at least eat innings. That was something. The addition of a slider was something else.

Maples made his bones in high school as a pitcher that threw 97 mph and had a genuine ++ curveball. He walked a ton of guys, but he was essentially playing catch the pitcher at the high school level – nobody swinging a high school bat could touch him. That didn't work in the minor leagues, and the story usually ends there. Maples lost 3 mph and stopped throwing his best pitch (mostly because the organization told him to lean on his fastball), learning a slider on the fly in Eugene, Oregon. This is a story that you could plausibly make into a movie.

It almost didn't work.

Maples floundered in Hi-A, and was eventually set back down to A ball. A ball, where he pitched in 2013 as a Top-5 prospect in the organization (and forecasted as a potential ace pitcher). A ball, where he pitched as a 2015, where he reinvented himself as a crafty reliever just trying to stop walking so many damn batters. If he struggled here, it was all over. Hell, if he did well here, it still might be.

Maples barely pitched well enough to stay in the organization. There may have been $2.5 million invested in him, but it was half a dozen years ago. Maples wasn't even drafted by Jed Hoyer; he was drafted by the man Jed Hoyer replaced, a man fired in large part for drafting pitchers like Hayden Simpson instead of pitchers like Noah Syndergaard.

Maples reported to Hi-A Myrtle Beach, and immediately walked 3 of the first 7 batters he faced in his first appearance. Like the adage goes, the only consistency about Maples is his inconsistency. There isn't a person in the world who wouldn't doubt himself after that first appearance. All the credit in the world to Maples for persisting. He wouldn't just hang on after that outing; he would dominate.

2017, Hi-A: 128 batters faced, 44 strikeouts, 15 walks, 1 HBP, 21 hits (.188/.289/.295 line against)

Maples was unreal. For the first time in his career, he was dominating. He struck out 12.64 per 9. The walks were there but manageable: 4.31 per 9. Turns out you can get away with walking people if they can't hit the ball off you otherwise. He would be promoted to Tennessee, the first time he would ever reach AA.

2017, AA: 65 batters faced, 28 strikeouts, 11 walks, 1 HBP, 11 hits (.212/.354/.269 line against)

[Short aside: you may look at that OBP and think that Dillon Maples got hit around. That is not the case. There are two things that are required for a pitcher to be bad; he needs to allow base-runners (give the opponent opportunities to score) and allow strong contact (give the opponent opportunities to allow those runners to actually score). Most pitchers allow strong enough contact for only the first thing to be relevant. Dillon Maples didn’t: even though he had a .440 BABIP, he only allowed 3 doubles, no triples, and not a single HR.]

Tennessee was the first time he ever dominated a level after being promoted. People started to talk about Maples again. Dillon now had 3 pitches that he could throw for strikes. His fastball recovered it's speed, now with interest. The breaking pitches had come back. At one point, Maples recorded 14 consecutive outs by way of strikeout. He was promoted to Iowa.

2017, AAA: 81 batters faced, 28 strikeouts, 11 walks, 12 hits (.185/.333/.246 line against)

This year, Dillon Maples has faced 274 batters. He has struck out 100 of them. 6 of them have doubled. 2 have tripled, 3 have hit a home run. 37 have walked. He has travelled back in time; he started as Carlos Marmol, 2012 and ended up as Carlos Marmol, 2007.

And like Carlos Marmol, 2007, he is now on the Cubs. 

Today is the first day of the expanded rosters.

Mike Freeman will be called up; Addison Russell has had a setback with his plantar fascitis and needs time to recover.

Victor Caratini will be called up; he is good, and young, and deserved the reward of being called up. 

Justin Grimm will be called up; he is no longer hiding on the disabled list.

Dillon Maples will be calle dup; he is a resurrected reliever with a 99mph fastball, a wipeout curveball, a +++ slider, and otherwordly mental fortitude.

Cheer for him.

 

That joke in the title is a bit of a stretch. /dadjokes

The Pirates have been a hot and cold team this year, but they've been cold lately. After climbing to 58-58, they've been 5-10 in their last 15 with many of those games being non-competitive. Furthermore, the Cubs miss both Cole and Taillon, instead getting the pitchers on the team that are…not great (and they haven't been that great either this year). The Pirates are a bad team, worse than their record indicates, and the Cubs should absolutely crush them. Problem is, the Cubs aren't all that great right now either. If they find some consistency on offense, they'll be good. If they can find some competent relief pitching, they'll be even better.

Team Leaders

Cubs

• OBP: Kris Bryant (.404) (up 4 points from last series)
• ISO: Ian Happ (.266) (up 4 points from last series)
• HR: Anthony Rizzo (30) (up 2)
• R+RBI: Rizzo (171) (up 10)
• wRC+: Bryant (143) (up 2)
• BSR: Javier Baez (3.0) (no change)
• SP K/9: Jose Quntana (10.37) (up 77 centistrikeouts)
• SP BB/9: Jon Lester (2.79) (no change)
• SP FIP: Lester (3.78) (down 1)
• RP K/9: Carl Edwards Jr  (13.07) (up 1 decistrikeout)
• RP BB/9: Brian Duensing (2.24) (down 5 centiwalks)
• RP FIP: Duensing (3.13) (no change)
• WAR: Bryant (4.9) (up 3 centiwins)

Scalliwags

• OBP: McCutchen (.372)
• ISO: Josh Bell (.230)
• HR: McCutchen (23)
• R+RBI: McCutchen (152)
• wRC+: McCutchen (126)
• BSR: Ser Gregor of House Polanco (2.6)
• SP K/9: Jameson Taillon (8.75)
• SP BB/9: Ivan Nova (5.92)
• Star Wars BB-8: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BB-8
• SP FIP: Taillon (3.56)
• RP K/9: Felipe Rivero (10.72)
• RP BB/9: Wade LeBlanc (2.35)
• RP FIP: Rivero (2.48)
• WAR: McCutchen (3.3)

 Injury News, transactions, blood pacts, etc.

Addison Russell is starting to work his way back from his foot injury, and could be back sometime next week. Lester is down with shoulder fatigue, and Willson is still out with his hamstring injury. No word on when either of those guys are returning, from last I've seen.

Literally copied and pasted from last preview.

McCutchen has been one of the worst players in baseball over the past 2 weeks, which brought his numbers down considerably. Unfortunately for the Pirates, the reason he isn't the worst over that timeframe is because David Freese is on the team (.175/.209/.300).

Pitching Matchups

Monday (7:05pm): Mike Montgomery (3.43 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 102.1 IP) vs Trevor Williams (4.40 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 122.2 IP)

Tuesday (7:05pm):  Jake Arrieta (3.49, 3.87, 152.0) vs Chad Kuhl (4.52, 3.99, 129.1)

Wednesday (7:05pm): Jose Quintana (a thousand, a million, too many) vs Ivan Nova (3.97, 4.39, 165.2)

Will the Cubs Win?

lol