Author: myles

Carlos Marmol Accused of Domestic Violence

Bad news concerning Carlos Marmol:

More on this as it develops, but if true this could be a hairy situation. I've been debating whether or not to throw a control issues joke in here, but decided against it.

I'm not sure what the appropriate law is in this case.

Updates, as they happen!

2013: Are the Cubs .500?

Last year, the Cubs won 61 games. In the offseason, Chicago made the following signings:

Edwin Jackson

Scott Baker

Carlos Villanueva

Scott Feldman

Nate Schierholtz

Scott Hairston

Dioner Navarro

Kyuji Fujikawa

The rest of the team is more-or-less intact: the Cubs basically had no free-agents (they traded everyone that was going to be a free agent of worth).

There aren't 20 wins worth of additions there… so why do I have the Cubs predicted to win 81 games?

The Spreadsheet

2012 PA     PA WAR 12 WAR Note  
630 C Castillo 400 1.2 0.6    
    Navarro 230 0.5 1.1    
680 1B Rizzo 590 3.7 1.6    
    Hairston 90 0 2.1    
642 2B Barney 580 2.9 1.8    
    Valbuena 60 0.1 1.2    
698 SS Castro 680 4.3 3.3    
    Valbuena 20 0 1.0    
647 3B  Stewart 400 1 -0.2    
    Valbuena 250 0.9 2.1    
682 LF Soriano 500 1.1 2.3    
    Valbuena 180 0.2 -1.0    
672 CF DeJesus 450 1.7 0.5    
    Sappelt 220 -0.1 1.1 AAA Tr*  
693 RF Schierholtz 400 0.9 2.2    
    Hairston 300 0.8 -0.5    
  P All of them 320 -2 7.2 2012 Delta  
  PH All of them 270 1.7 1.9 Repl Adj  
  Team PA Total 5940 18.9 5.2 2012 Delta**
    PA/G 36.7        
33   Equ. DL G 150        
    % Repl PA 10.3% 17.0      
               
               
* MLE from PCL numbers last year.          
** Difference from last year, adjusted for % replacement PA.    
    IP WAR 12 WAR Note
SP1 Samardzija 169 3.1 9.2  
SP2 Jackson 187 2.9    
SP3 Garza 151 2.8    
SP4 Feldman 109 1.3    
SP5 Baker 111 1.8    
SP6 Villanueva 111 1.7    
SP7 Wood 102 0.9    
RPSP None 0 0 14.1  
Bullpen Everyone 500 -0.4 -1.5 4.35***
      14.1 1.1  
        15.2  
        2.1  
IP Targets Starter 940   13.1 18.3
  Reliever 500      
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
  % Repl IP 15% 12.0    
        TWAR 28.9
        REPL 51.8
          80.8
           
*** 4.35 totalRP        

This will take a LOT of explaining, so I'll start from the beginning. 

My first step was to assign playing time to each person at each position. For instance, Castillo is the starting C, but even in a perfect world he's only going to play 2/3 of the time. I "ideally" gave him 400 PA and Navarro 230 PA (the Cubs had approximately 630 PA come from the catchers last year). I did this for every position: these numbers are what I would predict in each case if there are no injuries. I'll explain injury considerations later.

After I've put a reasonable approximation for each players' PT by position (assuming that Stewart is the primary 3B and Hairston is the primary backup 1B – my projection doesn't assign a single PA to Clevenger), I then tried to project how much WAR they would provide given their plate appearances, defensive skills, and baserunning abilities. I used this handy calculator to do so. In the spreadsheet, I also made a note of how much value the Cubs' received from each position last year, as well as the difference. In most cases, there is a significant upgrade; in fact, only 2 positions regressed, the corner outfields. This makes some sense to me, though I very much expect the gains to be overstated in these projections. To avoid as much bias as possible, I used every players' ZiPS projections exactly. A short summary of each position follows:

C: Soto was really bad last year, and Clevenger was worse. I'm pretty high on Castillo, but you don't have to be to have a marked improvement here.

1B: A full year of Rizzo will be the most important and maybe the most difficult thing to project. I think 3.7 WAR is optimistic here. Important to note that Hairston is a replacement-level 1B.

2B: I'm pretty low on Barney. His defense last year was insane and it seems unsustainable to me. It's important to note that Barney's WAR last year was higher than 1.9, but the subs for him were universally terrible last year.

SS: Castro is projected to take another step forward. I actually agree, and would not be surprised in the slightest if Castro exceeds even this lofty projection.

3B: Ian Stewart is beloved by ZiPS for some reason. I don't get it. Valbuena is the better player of the two in the system, but from a utility standpoint it makes way more sense for Valbuena to be a super sub. If the Cubs call up Watkins to fill that role, than Valbuena should be the 3B, Stewart the backup 3B/1B. I don't like the retardation of Watkins' development, though.

LF: Soriano is goign to fall of a cliff this year. We should trade this guy, according to ZiPS. 

CF: DeJesus' bat plays better in center, but he's going to really struggle there defensively (at least he did last year IMO). Our OF defense is going to be pretty bad in general, I think. I ignored Sappelt's MLB numbers completely, and instead performed a MLE of his 2012 AAA season. 

RF: The Schierholtz/Hairston platoon isn't that exciting, partially because platoons rarely work in practice. That's why I'm comfortable using ZiPS projections that don't take platoons in mind (and don't adjust for platoon advantages). Both Nate and Scott are just guys, below average but above replacement.

P/PH: I just went with the same numbers as last year. 

After I totalled that WAR (18.9 WAR), I built in a contingency for injuries. The Cubs have lost, an average 150 total games to injuries over the last 3 years. That's 10.3% of their roster given to replacement-level players. One of my primary assumptions for this projection is that the injuries affect a team at random; no player is more or less prone to injury as another. I know this isn't the case, but I'm also sure that I (or anyone else) can predict individual player injuries with a high degree of certainty. Therefore, I just "replaced" 10.3% of the team's PA with a replacement-level roster, reducing the overall batting WAR to 17. Last year, the Cubs produced 11.7 WAR, so this is a significant difference (5.3 WAR). I think it's reconciled partly by replacing players like Joe Mather (-2.1 WAR last year) and Josh Vitters (-1.3) and Steve Clevenger (-1.0) with (hopefully) replacement-level guys. The Cubs left a lot of WAR on the table last year by virtue of starting these sub-replacement players. 

For pitching, I had a more arduous task. I first had to project innings counts for each of the 7 starters. I'm not at all confident in my list, which in the end was just the ZiPS projections for the first 6 and the remaining starts to Wood. ZiPS is also unreasonably confident in the ability of everyone to take a step forward, either from injury or ineffectiveness. The bullpen is very difficult to project individually (every individual RP's volatility is high), so like our banking system I just took a bunch of volatile pitchers and lumped them together and sold the RP off as a 4.35 ERA, 500 IP monstrosity. That's a slight improvement over last year, which seems fair.

After I totalled the Cubs' WAR from pitching (14.1), I did a similar correction for injuries. I used 15% here, which is admittedly a little low: I think the Cubs are more injury prone than the average team (probably around 21 or 22%), but they also have an above-replacement pool of pitching to draw from (for SP). I could be talked down here for certain. I ended up with 12 WAR pitching, and the Cubs had 7.7 last year. Volstad (-1.9), Germano (-1.5) and Dolis (-1.2) are all that's needed to reconcile with that.

Take those 29 WAR and add 51.8 replacement level wins and you have an 80.8 win team!

Let's think hard about this.

The first thing to recognize is that the WAR from last year and this year don't match up. The difference from total WAR this year and last is around 10 WAR, but this team is 20 wins better. Part of is explained by the Cubs being "unlucky" last year, underperforming their W/L by 4 last year. The other part is somewhat explained by my using FanGraphs WAR for last year's WAR, which has a different (and lower) replacement threshold. It somewhat overvalues last year's production, where as (to the best of my knowledge) the WAR calculator I used uses the same .320 percentage threshold that B-R does. If this discrepancy is in fact significant, I can see downgrading my projection as many as 4 to 6 wins.

Next, lets remember that my projection doesn't take into account a single trade. The Cubs are likely not making the playoffs this year, and parts WILL be traded off in that case. However, my projections have Garza pitching 151 innings for the Cubs, Soriano grabbing 500 AB, and all of our flippable pitchers more-or-less staying on the team for a full season. In reality, this is likely not the case. Trading Soriano and Garza immediately docks the Cubs 4 wins.

Also, keep in mind this is a relatively healthy projection, too. The injury contingency deals with the team on a broadscale, but it's more likely than not that one major component of our team will be lost to injury. Soriano, Garza, and Baker are all huge injury risks. Losing them is a pretty big deal. 

Last, let's keep in mind that ZiPS is pretty optimistic concerning the Cubs. Is Stewart going to produce 1 WAR in 400 PA? Probably not. Is Rizzo going to produce 3.7 WAR? Maybe, but that seems high. Our the Cubs going to get average to above-average production from 7 simultaneous time-share starters? Absolutely not. Will those 7 pitchers account for all 162 starts, as I have projected (save the injury contingency). No. 

It's also not like I'm saying the Cubs are even a good team. This projection says that the in the optimal production case with average injuries, the Cubs aren't even above .500. That doesn't seem like its too far from the truth.

If I were a betting man and wanted to be a little more subjective, I'd adjust this downwards to maybe 75 wins. As it stands, though, on paper, the Cubs appear to be right around…average.

This is a definite work in progress, so please let me know what looks good, bad, and ugly.

Assume the Position: 2nd Base

I'm pretty excited about the lower levels of our second basemen, but that's not to say that everything is roses. There's a good chance that the entire upper two levels of minors turns over completely by the end of the year (save Watkins, who might actually graduate to the majors by the end of 2013). 

Filling those gaps will be some exciting names, though. One in particular to look for his Gioskar Amaya, who is one year away from being a Top 100 consideration.

      Last Year 2013 Career
  Name Age AVG OBP SLG wOBA pwOBA AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB Barney 27 0.254 0.299 0.354 0.287 0.292 0.263 0.305 0.349 0.289
AAA Cardenas 24 0.300 0.381 0.461 0.370          
  Amezaga 35 0.271 0.333 0.369 0.317          
AA Watkins 23 0.281 0.383 0.422 0.376          
  Samson 25 0.280 0.333 0.300 0.297          
A+ Torreyes 20 0.264 0.326 0.385 0.328          
A DeVoss 22 0.249 0.382 0.370 0.354          
A- Amaya 20 0.290 0.381 0.496 0.403          
Rk Lockhart 20 0.216 0.297 0.300 0.288          
  Bote 20 0.224 0.342 0.336 0.329          

 

The league average wOBA for a 2nd baseman last year was .302.

MLB

Darwin Barney is an interesting player. The organization will tell you he's part of the core, and defensively that might even be true. On offense, though, he's about a full standard deviation from where he needs to be. You have to be Ozzie Smith reincarnate to compensate for a .299 OBP, but Barney did provide some value at the position last year through his glove. He's projected for a modest increase in wOBA (to .292), and that's livable when the average hovers around .300. All things considered, Barney is an average 2B for a below-average price. That has some value.

AAA

Adrian Cardenas has usually always brought the lumber in the minor leagues, and for one reason or another never really got a fair shake in the bigs. He's a minor league FA, so I don't know where he ends up next season, but if you think he's got no future as a starter in the majors (the Cubs obviously think this) he's probably got some value as a utility infielder. Depending on how the Stewart/Valbuena battle ends up, Cardenas could easily see a MIF future on the Cubs next year (40-man options right now: Lake/Watkins/Villaneuva/Vitters). Alfredo Amezaga is old, and terrible. He's one of the roughly googol signings the Dodgers made this offseason, so he's their problem now. 

AA

The future is bright for one Logan Watkins. I'm not too sure why he doesn't get more press: he is relatively young, takes his walks, has average power for the position, and has done all of those things consistently for 5 years in the minors. SSS warning here, but he also just finished eviscerating the AFL this year (over 40 PA, so take it extremely extremely extremely lightly). He's seen time as a SS and CF and even some 3B, so he's a good bet to be a utility infielder in 2014 if he doesn't win that job outright in 2013 (or even 2B if Barney is traded/bombs). Nate Samson must be bald or something, he doesn't have any power to speak of (that's terrible, I'll show myself out). He signed on with the Reds to languish in their middle minors next season. 

A+

Ronald Torreyes was part of the Sean Marshall trade (alongside maybe sexist Dave Sappelt and Travis Wood), and he's been just sorta okay (considering how good he was B.C.). He's still only 20, but struggled pretty badly this year in his first taste of A+ ball (relative to his other seasons). He's a real boom/bust BABIP guy (never between .275 and .370 in his career), and he puts the ball in play a TON (low walk rate, very low strikeout rate), so he's got lots of chances for luck to play a factor in his game. It's really odd that his BABIP so wildly fluctuates given this fact, but se la vie (and SSS). He was hit-unlucky last year and still was better than the average 2B while being league-young, so don't get the wrong impression; I was just expecting him to torch A+ and he didn't. 

A

Zeke DeVoss fell to Earth pretty hard last season, but the fact that he maintained a .354 wOBA over 581 PA is still very impressive. He's not young relative to his league, but he's still a 2011 draftee, so he's got plenty of time. He's probably 3rd on my list of 2B Cubs prospects, but still a good one nonetheless. He might not stick at 2B so a change to CF (and a diminution of his status) might be incoming. 

A-

Gioskar Amaya might be the best 2B prospect in the system (though Watkins is definitely more likely to make it to the big leagues). As a 19-year old in A-, Amaya slugged .496. That was good for third in the Northwest League: 1st and 2nd were a pair of 22-year old corner infielders. His K% rate is a major flaw that will need to be addressed before he turns into Brett Jackson, but he's a slick fielder that hits for average and power. That's a pretty nice combination.

Rk

Daniel Lockhart hasn't impressed since being the 10th round pick in the 2011 draft. He'll be 20 this season, but in his first 2 Rookie League seasons his number indicate that he was very outmatched. He's still young, but doesn't look at all promising. David Bote had 150 PA in rookie ball this year and did pretty well (as well as a .226 average can). He had gap power and drew his fair share of walks. He's got a long way to go, but as a 2012 draftee the world is still ahead of him. 

I haven't done enough research on all of the other positions, but I'd be surprised if there was another position the Cubs were better at then 2B (excepting CF, maybe). They don't have a Baez or Soler at the very top of the list, but the depth is really astounding (and I consider Bruno to be a 3B. If he sticks at 2B, that's another pretty intriguing prospect). Just glancing at other people's lists for prospects, it really does shock me how little love there is for Watkins. He strikes me as a low-ceiling, high-floor guy, where you don't think he'll ever make an all-star game but wouldn't be surprised to see him log productive time for a dozen years. I'd order them Amaya, Watkins, DeVoss, and Torreyes (though DeVoss is a real threat to go to CF).

Projected Rosters

MLB: Barney/Valbuena/Cardenas?

AAA: Watkins/Cardenas?

AA: Torreyes

A+ DeVoss

A: Amaya

A-: Bote/Lockhart

Assume the Position: First Base

First base looks to be quite a bit rosier for the Cubs than catcher does. They Cubs have a budding star at the top and some very intriguing options at the bottom.

      Last Year 2013 Career
  Name Age AVG OBP SLG wOBA pwOBA AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB Rizzo 22 0.285 0.342 0.463 0.349 0.368 0.245 0.324 0.402 0.320
AAA Rohan 26 0.290 0.330 0.449 0.338          
AA Bour 24 0.283 0.360 0.455 0.368          
A+ Ridling 26 0.238 0.300 0.370 0.310          
  Jones 24 0.224 0.265 0.300 0.263          
A Hoilman 23 0.237 0.326 0.392 0.328          
  Cuneo 23 0.252 0.339 0.392 0.333          
  Rogers 22 0.300 0.493 0.420 0.435          
A- Vogelbach 19 0.322 0.423 0.608 0.469          
  Shoulders 20 0.250 0.342 0.447 0.370          
Rk Gretzky 19 0.304 0.372 0.330 0.342          

The league average 1B last year had a wOBA of .337.

MLB

Anthony Rizzo had himself a nice little half-season last year. I'd like to see some more walks, but I'm happy with his contact numbers (generally) and his power has developed nicely. He's a cheap, good, middle-of-the-order type of hitter. He is swing-happy, but as long as he can put a bat on the ball who cares? He also crushes off-speed offerings, so he's going to get hittable pitches. Hooray!

AAA

Greg, of Rohan is probably a Quad-A guy. He put up solid numbers last year, but it was his first taste of AAA at 26. I wouldn't hate having him as the backup 1B (and he bats righty, so he'd presumably platoon well with Rizzo), but his numbers indicate he's eminently replaceable.  Blake Lalli was the primary backup to Rizzo but he's gone now. 

AA

Justin Bour had a nice little season. He's still young enough to maybe be on the periphery (he'll be 25 in AAA this season) and he's shown ability at every level in his career. He could be a solid backup as early as late 2013/2014.

A+

Rebel Ridling is org filler at this point. He'll be 27, in AA, hitting league average, next year. Going to go ahead and pass on him. The first time I ever heard of Richard Jones was research for this article. It's the last time you'll ever hear of him, too: he's coming to a Home Depot near you. 

UPDATE: Both of these guys were released. MLBTR has nothing on either of them, apparently they are THAT useless. Thanks to OV Platinum Member Chet Masterson for the tip.

A

Paul Hoilman is too old to be in A without absolutely dominating. He's a 2011 draftee, so the book isn't completely written on him, but he better get good in a hurry: 473 PA of .718 OPS ball from 1B is not so good. Ryan Cuneo was released by the Cubs when he couldn't hit himself out of Peoria. He will not be missed. Jacob Rogers brought the thunder in his first taste of professional action, putting up a .999 OPS in Arizona and a .913 OPS in Peoria. He takes a ton of walks. He should be a fast mover in the system; he's already 22 so he should have a pretty firm grasp of minor-league quality hurlers. He's a fringey-prospect but someone I'll be keeping an eye on.

A-

Call me crazy, but I'm not sure Daniel Vogelbach isn't the 2nd best prospect in the Cubs organization (Baez is one with a bullet). Vogelbach has a few years to get in shape to play first (and I've heard the first whispers that he could even end up at left field if he improves as rapidly as he has). I don't care about getting him to the outfield; if he plays at first, he could be a special hitting prospect. Using this handy tool (and assuming A numbers, since A- doesn't fit in there), Vogelbach was already better than Vitters was last year (dying laughing). He's got very good plate discipline. He makes contact. He's got legitimate plus-plus power, and that includes doubles power (he hit 21 in 283 PA last season). He's got one of the best 5 or 10 bats in all of the minor leagues, and the Cubs are lucky to have him (and 1B prospects are slightly thin at the moment, anyway). Rock Shoulders hit very well in his limited time, too. He's not a high-quality prospect, but he could put himself there with a nice season in 2013.

Rk

Trevor Gretzky sure looks like a bust. He's still only 19, but he has absolutely no power. He plays 1B and LF, neither all that well, and he's tall but not strong. He'll get his chances (7th round, 2011), but I'm not holding my breath. 

All in all, this isn't a bad bunch of players. I'm not sure where I'd put these guys in a list of our top prospects, but Vogelbach is certainly one, with Bour and Shoulders getting some fringe-consideration at the bottom of the top 30. 

Projected Rosters

MLB: Rizzo/Clevenger?

AAA: Bour/Rohan

AA: YOUR NAME HERE

A+: Rogers

A: Vogelbach (I'd love to see him start the season at A+ or even AA, but I'll take A+)/Hoilman

A-: Shoulders/Gretzky

I don't like keeping Shoulders at A-, but I do think it's where he'll start the season. 

Assume the Position: Catcher

We are getting very close to catchers and pitchers reporting. We might have one or two moves of significance until that point, but I'm going to assume that our team is essentially what we have in front of us. That being said, I'm going to take a broad look at every position to seem what we have there, both now and going forward. First up are the catchers.

      Last Year 2013   Career
  Name Age AVG OBP SLG wOBA BJwOBA   AVG OBP SLG wOBA
MLB Castillo 26 0.265 0.337 0.418 0.327 0.325   0.261 0.326 0.424 0.325
  Clevenger 27 0.201 0.260 0.276 0.242 0.246   0.202 0.264 0.281 0.246
AAA Navarro 29 0.319 0.382 0.449 0.371 0.293   0.245 0.306 0.357 0.293
  Apodaca 25 0.280 0.387 0.371 0.350            
  Esposito 33 0.225 0.268 0.275 0.250            
AA Brenly 25 0.227 0.295 0.342 0.297            
  Flores 25 0.167 0.322 0.250 0.289            
A+ Gibbs 23 0.200 0.338 0.297 0.312            
  Lopez 24 0.269 0.338 0.403 0.343            
A Krist 22 0.253 0.324 0.447 0.346            
  Burruel 20 0.250 0.314 0.297 0.290            
A- Contreras 20 0.273 0.316 0.357 0.318            
  Rymel 22 0.188 0.246 0.344 0.279            
  Escobar 21 0.235 0.355 0.412 0.362            
Rk Marra 19 0.322 0.457 0.467 0.434            
  Mineo 17 0.100 0.182 0.100 0.156            

The MLB average wOBA for a catcher last year was .312.

MLB

Beef Castle is the definite starter next year. He's projected by BJ to have a wOBA of .318. I like him a pretty good deal: his minor league numbers indicate that he is ascending, he improved over the course of the season, and his defensive game-calling abilities are vastly underrated and overreported. Not an area of concern. Steve Clevenger's projection seems incredibly optimistic. I'm not sure I expect an wOBA above .285-.290. If he does reach .310, he becomes a very useful backup/utility guy; it's also the only he stays on the roster. Some people believe he played all of 2012 hurt, but that's either false or stupid (take your pick). Dioner Navarro is 5 years removed from being useful. He's the de facto backup, though he can't hit and can barely field so who knows how long it'll be until he's usurped by Clevenger or someone else.

AAA

Juan Apodaca is a 26-year old journeyman who put up very nice numbers in AAA last year. He's been with 4 organizations and never reached the bigs. I don't understand why: he's not old, he's walked at every level, and the very few scouting reports I've seen on him indicate he's not terrible behind the plate. He's got low power, but that's no game breaker: he maybe deserves a backup role somewhere but it won't be with the Cubs – they released him last year (he's with the Rangers now). I include him only because he was the primary AAA guy this year: the other guy (that wasn't Castillo) was the abortive Brian Esposito. I haven't seen his release notice on mlbtr so I assume he's still with the club: he's 33 and can't hack it at AAA. Blake Lalli was also booted. The Cubs had 4 primary catchers on the AAA roster last year and none of them will be back.

AA

Michael Brenly is the "favorite" to break camp with the AAA squad (if Clevenger isn't waived, clears, and accepts). He is the son of Bob Brenly, which is the only reason he was drafted. Since then, he's been an unspectacular, slow-moving catcher. I have no reason to believe he'll ever contribute at the MLB level. Luis Flores put up a .572 OPS as a 25 year backup in AA last year. 

A+

Micah Gibbs might be a backup one day, maybe? He walks and he's not particularly old for his level (I mean, he's not a prospect level, but he's not completely worthless yet). He's got no power and for a 3rd rounder has disappointed. Se la vie…Chad Noble was so bad last year that I couldn't even include him on this list. Rafael Lopez is too old for this level, but has been a solid performer so far. Catchers as a rule get a longer age-leash in the minors, so the book isn't entirely closed on him. He's got mediocre gap power, which for a catcher is pretty good.

A

Yaniel Cabezas had an OPS under .550 and thus didn't qualify for my list, because he isn't a baseball player. Sergio Burruel has youth on his side, but he's been in the organization for 4 years and has never slugged above his OBP. Chadd Krist inexplicably sounds like the name of a porn star to me. He had a very nice season in 2012 and should start the year as the A starter, or maybe the A+ co-starter.

A-

Wilson Contreras is young and adequate at Boise this year. He also had a 47% CS last year, which is probably unsustainable. He's been in the organization for 4 years and has always been average to middling with the bat, but that's no dealbreaker at all. Lance Rymel was a 28th round draft pick in the 2012 draft and got embarrassed in his 25 games. His BABIP was under .200 so he's a fair bet to look better next year, but he has some definite work to do if he wants to stick around. Carlos Escobar is another 2012 draftee (15th), and he acquitted himself quite well. He'll be 22 next year, and should grab the bulk of the starts for the club next year if not promoted to A outright.

Rk

Justin Marra is become Youkilis, destroyer of pitchers with poor control. He got a late start to his career after being drafted in 2011, but embarrassed the rookie league much like Vogelbach did (albeit in a much different way). He had a .397 BABIP, so he's a serious regression candidate (as is the fact that he very likely just took the walks given to him), but you couldn't ask much more from a guy in his first taste of baseball. Hits doubles, and walks, what's not to like? Alberto Mineo is 17 and has 62 career PA. I'd be lying if I told you I knew anything about him. 

I'm not going to do FRk, because it's so far from my periphery.

The Cubs don't have any real breakout candidates anywhere near ready to hit the majors. Depending on how you feel about Clevenger, you might not even have great depth at the major league level. I think that there are a few fringey-prospects in the deep minors (Marra, Escobar, Contreras) but absolutely no one that I'd feel projecting to ever start for the Cubs in the next 4-5 years. 

Projected Rosters

MLB: Castillo/Navarro/Clevenger

AAA: NRI/Brenly/Esposito

AA: Gibbs/Flores/Lopez

A+: Lopez/Krist

A: Escobar/Burruel/(Cabezas?)

A-: Contreras/Marra/Rymel

Rk: Mineo/?

 

Better Know a Cub: Lendy Castillo

I actually like Lendy Castillo a fair bit.

Lendy Castillo was signed by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2006… as a shortstop. He actually showed considerable promise on the defensive side, but could not hit to save his life.

2007: 684 OPS

2008: 566 OPS

2009: 453 OPS

After it was apparently there was no way he was going to hack it even as an all-glove shortstop, the Phillies ended up moving Lendy to the pitching staff (he was just 21 when they started – signed at 18). As a pitcher, he showed some promise in his first year, working up to A- (albeit barely). As a 22-year old, he threw 46 innings of 2.54 ball with 9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9, adequate numbers for a player in just his second year of pitching. 

The Phillies left Lendy unprotected in the Rule V that year, and the Cubs selected him. Chicago barely used him even for a Rule V guy, with 13 appearances and 16 innings in the majors. It wasn't very pretty, but it was an awful sample size and I'm not that worried about it. He did, however, walk the opposing team's pitcher on 4 pitches once. That's no good. Castillo also got "hurt," and the Cubs stashed him in the minors for rehab assignments also- it was another 20 SSS innings where he absolutely dominated.

Pitch Selection/Stuff

Castillo is a pitching neophyte, and as such he does not feature many pitches. In the majors this year, Castillo sported a fastball, slider, cutter (using very sparingly, maybe one or two per outing) and one change (which was likely just a hanging slider or something – it was thrown for a ball). None of his pitches were effective last year, save the cutter he threw only 25 times all year. The pitches aren't refined at all, and he doesn't fool anyone, yet (no one swing at pitches out of the zone; they always swing at them in the zone; they usually always make contact). 

All of this doesn't make a compelling argument as to why he's worth a 40-man roster spot. I'm not sure I can make one, either; however, he has some interesting skills. He can touch 96 with his fastball and 87 with his slider (he averages 92 and 83 with them). His biggest hurdle to success his un-straightening his fastball, which basically is an arrow at this point. I think that will hopefully come with more instruction. 

Summary

On nearly any other team, I'd say that Lendy Castillo definitely does not deserve a roster spot. On a team like the Cubs (from a standpoint of talent), I almost still can't make the case. He's a project reliever with fairly high upside and a low, low floor. However, I think he's got a fairly high ceiling. He's shown an ability to strike people out at all levels while minimizing his walks, especially for a guy with almost no experience. As he refines his repertoire, it's not too difficult to imagine Castillo developing into an 8th-inning guy, or even a 5th-starter type. That will depend on his tightening that fastball and getting some more movement/better placement. If the Cubs waived Castillo, I don't think he'd clear waivers, so the Cubs are going to have to measure his upside against their current redundancy of fringey pitching on the 40-man roster. I'm not sure where he'll end up when the season begins. In spite of his 2012 troubles, I kinda hope he sticks.

Did You Know?

Lendy was used on no days rest only once last year, on one day once, and two days twice. The other outings? 4, 5, 5, 6, 9, 14, 19, and 94. 

The Cubs were 0-13 in games that Lendy appeared.

Lendy appeared in 5 games against the Brewers, and no more than once against any other team. 

Lendy Castillo = Stole ill candy

Young Minor Leaguers in the Cubs system

This is something interesting to document that doesn't deserve a real post.

I was curious to see what Cubs are "young" for their level. So, what I've done is gone through each minor league system the Cubs contribute to and looked to see if any Cubs are in the Top 10. Here are the results. Note: only prospects who had appreciable time at each level were counted, at my discretion. Also, they had to be in the top 100 in batting average for the league (which is why Brett Jackson is not on this list). It's dumb, but it made this a lot quicker. I'm also not torn up about it too much, because it helps separate the chaff "prospects". 

Dominican Summer League

Hitting

None

Pitching

Carlos Rodriguez, Age-16 (71.2 IP, 2.01 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9)

Arizona 

Hitting

None

Pitching

Paul Blackburn, Age-18 (20.2 IP, 3.48 ERA, 5.7 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9)

Boise

Hitting

Jeimer Candelario, Age-18 (.281/.345/.396)

Darien Martin, Age-18 (.270/.318/.377)

LEAGUE LINE: .249/.331/.359

Pitching

None

Peoria

Hitting

Javier Baez, Age-19 (.333/.383/.596)

Pin-Chieh Chen, Age-20 (.259/.345/.347)

LEAGUE LINE: .254/.326/.379

Pitching

None

Florida

Hitting

Ronald Torreyes, Age-19 [Youngest player in the league] (.264/.326/.385)

Arismendy Alcantara, Age-20 (.302/.339/.447)

LEAGUE LINE: .255/.326/.373

Pitching

None

Tennessee

Hitting

Jae-Hoon Ha, Age-20 (.273/.352/.385)

Pitching

None

Iowa

Hitting

Josh Vitters, Age-22 (.304/.356/.513)

Anthony Rizzo, Age-22 (.342/.405/.696)

LEAGUE LINE: .278/.345/.430

Pitching

None

Pretty hilarious and sad that we don't have a single level-young prospect at A and above. This also gives me more confidence in Vitters. He truly is still very much a prospect, and he gets a bad rap for taking a little longer to climb to the majors even though he's still been level-young and competent everywhere he's been. Obviously, he needs to stick at third for that to happen. He should get a bunch of chances, in my opinion, because he's not blocking anyone unless you think Junior Lake is the answer.

 

The 2012 Free Agency Team

This has been a pretty bare year for free agency. Aside from Greinke and Hamilton, there haven’t really been the impact talents available like in previous years. That’s only going to get worse.

However, there is something interesting to note. For under $150 million, a GM could have signed an entire 25-man roster out of free agents and won over 100 games. Here is that list.

  2013 AAV WAR
C Molina 1.8 0.8
1B Pujols 24.68 4.6
2B Hill 5.5 4.6
SS Hairston 3 1.5
3B Ramirez 12 5.4
RF Beltran 13 3.6
CF Cespedes 9 3.4
LF Willingham 7 2.9
DH Encarnacion 3.5 4.6
SP Iwakuma 1.5 1.9
SP Chen 3.7 2.4
SP Kuroda 10 3.4
SP Saunders 4 1.3
SP Maholm 4.75 1.9
RP Papelbon 12.5 1.6
RP Nathan 7.38 1.9
RP Affeldt 5 0.7
RP Broxton  4 1.6
RP Rodney 2 3.7
RP Dotel  3.5 1.1
RP Oliver 4.5 1.9
Bench Repl 0.5 0
Bench Repl 0.5 0
Bench Repl 0.5 0
    143.81 54.8

That’s $143.81 (the midpoint, almost exactly, between #5 and #6 in payrolls last year[Tigers and Rangers]) million, and 54.8 bWAR (good for 103.8 projected wins). 

Clearly, this is an onerous undertaking even considering. You’re on the hook for the Pujols’ contract as well as Papelbon, though it’s interesting to note that those are really your only 2 incredibly bad contracts (you can maybe lump in Ramirez’). You could lose their 6.2 WAR, go to 97.6 wins, and drop to ~ $106 million in payroll, just under the Cardinals!

Of course, there is no way any GM could have signed this collection of free agents. However, it’s also important to note that no team is without it’s intrinsic resources. The Astros have under $12 million dollars in payroll obligations, and I mean that literally. They also have some worthwhile pieces (Altuve, Castro) that they wouldn’t need to acquire, though the cupboard is bare in Houston probably more than any other team I’ve ever seen. It used to be possible to wisely spend  into contention. I think that window is closing, but likely slower than we think.

The one thing I think we should all take away from this is as recently as last year, you could find a worthwhile option at basically every position (catcher and shortstop were the two areas that were harder to fill, and Reyes’ contract is too awful for even a fictional team). The better GMs can still have an advantage in this marketplace, and I believe we have one of the better GMs.

 

When is a win worth more?

I was thinking about Michael Bourn this morning, because I need psychiatric help. It kind of struck me that the Cubs could use Bourn more than most other teams… but taking a common approach to free agency, we shouldn’t be offering him more money than any other team (Bourn’s worth is more or less a constant), especially because we are so far away from contending. That’s obviously not true, but it is the assumption we essentially rely on when trying to compute a free agent’s worth. For instance:

Bourn

Age-29 : 6.0 WAR

Age-30: 3.5 WAR (projected)

Age-31: 3.2 WAR (projected)

Age-32: 2.8 WAR (projected)

Age-33: 2.2 WAR (projected)

Age-34: 1.4 WAR (projected)

This is a back-of-the-napkin estimate, where I took Age-30 to be 3.5 and depreciated by 10/10/20/40 percent. If a free agent is “worth” 4.5 million in free agency, then this table becomes

3.5 * 4.5 = 15.75 million

3.2 * 4.5 * 1.05 (inflation) = 15.12 million

2.8 * 4.5 * 1.05^2 = 13.89 million

2.2 * 4.5 * 1.05^3 = 11.46 million

1.4 * 4.5 * 1.05^4 = 7.66 million

So, a 3-year pact would look like 44.76, a 4-year deal worth 50.60 (10% decrease for 4th-year premium- otherwise 56.22), and a 5-year deal worth 63.88/57.49)

Let’s simplify that to 3/45, 4/56, and 5/64, as those seem reasonable.

This is the inherent problem with “fair market value”, though: is Bourn worth that much to the Angels, who already have a loaded outfield? Of course not. We aren’t trying to buy wins above replacement, we are trying to buy wins above replacing our guy.

Last year, the Cubs trotted out a .230/.303/.337 line at CF. Using this WAR calculator, we can see that the Cubs got 0.4 WAR from their CF last year. Bourn would provide 3.5 WAR, but only 3.1 Wins Above Alternative. The Angels, on the other hand, put up a .292/.365/.470 line, for a WAR of 7.3; Bourn is worth -3.8 WAA for the Angels (which, of course, is one reason they aren’t bidding for him). Of course, the Angels could move Bourn to RF or LF, but that diminishes with WAR, so his WAA will certainly improve but not by much.

If we think of players as providing Wins Above Alternative instead of Wins Above Replacement, we can get a much clearer picture of who teams are targeting and why they should be targeting them. You could even sort of predict who should offer a player more (I haven’t done the research, but it’d be very impressive if a team had a greater need for Bourn than the Cubs do).

The value of a WAA is certainly higher than 4.5 million (the average FA is not replacing a 0 WAR player, but obviously they are paid the same in my formula), but we actually don’t need that precise value to compute who should offer the most (all else similar- obviously, team payrolls and where they are in the contention cycle matters also). It is simply the team with the greatest potential WAA.

Of course, FA is way, way more complicated then just coming up with this number; I just thought it would be interesting to note. This will be much, much more useful when the Cubs are only a player or two away from being really competitive.