Author: myles

Better Know a Cub: Jeff Samardzija

The Cubs had an interesting draft in 2006. They had the 13th overall pick in the draft (they used it on Tyler Colvin, now with the Rockies). Then, they didn't pick again until the 149th overall pick. They used it on a player who many thought would not even sign; Jeff Samardzija.

 
Samardzija has had a very interesting sporting career. Recruited out of Valparaiso HS (I can attest to how ridiculous a receiver he was in high school – I attended Crown Point) to play wide receiver, the Irish WR did double duty, converting to a pitcher in college as well as setting many records at Notre Dame. He was a late 1st/early 2nd round football talent, but also had some skill on the mound; though raw, 98 mph heat on a fresh arm is mighty, mighty tempting. The Cubs didn't have any impact players in this draft class and felt they needed to take a gamble, and so they did.

Samardzija was a tough, expensive sign. He made 3 million in 2010 and 3.3 million in 2011. The Cubs commitment to him was expected to pay early dividends… and for a while, it did.

 
Curiously, he did not do very well in the minors. He never overpowered anyone, putting up very pedestrian peripherals like 5.1 and 4.1 K/9 rates. He was hittable as well, and his minors numbers who give you the impression of a bust. However, it was evident that he had a plus-fastball, if little else. The Cubs would call him up in 2008 after only 230 minor league innings.
 
The first year, it worked out. Working exclusively from the pen, he dominated his first season. I remember watching him throw 100 mph gas and just being blown away by his raw talent. He walked his fair share (4.9/9), but struck out enough (8.1) and always seemed to work out of jams. 
 
Then, it kind of fell apart. He was sent back down in 09, and didn't impress for a few years. More than a few people thought he would just never throw enough strikes to be a legitimate pitcher. 09 and 10 were basically lost years for Samardzija.
 
Then, 2011 happened. Thrust back into a bullpen role, Samardzija blossomed into an very dominant reliever.  After developing a splitter that would be come a signature strikeout pitch, Jeff was able to strikeout 8.9 per 9 innings and keep his hits down to 6.5 per. He still had a high walk rate, but I and many others were very confident he could be a dominant setup man or closer well into the future.
 
2012 came with an opportunity to grab a rotation spot for Jeff. A starter by trade, Samardzija asked to be given consideration for a starter's role and he earned one. The only way he'd keep the spot, however, is if he could keep his walks down- something he did very well last year. Samardzija goes into the 2013 season as our de facto ace, a player who is still cost-controlled for 3 years and hopefully a dominant top to the rotation.
 
Pitch selection
 
Samardzija features a 95mph fastball, an 85mph slider, and an 86 mph splitter. He mixes in the occasional cutter and curveball, but for the most part he's a pure flamethrower. His splitter is one of the best single pitches in baseball, and the slider is a legit plus pitch as well. The fastball is playable, but average. 
 
Stuff
 
Samardzija induces many swings and misses. His swinging-strike % is 12.1 (league average is 9.1), and the majority of that is inducing swings out of the strike zone (and a much lower percentage of those swings connect against Jeff than average). This is a great sign that he his just dominating guys. He throws slightly less in the zone than the average pitcher, but not enough to be concerning.
 
Summary
 
Samardzija's 2013 season will be extremely important in determing whether or not 2012 is the new normal, or if he'll go back to walking guys. If he keeps up his the 2012 performance or even improves (Samardzija biggest problem last year was keeping the ball down- if he leaves it up in the zone it's a 450 foot bomb), then he's in-line for a huge extension from the Cubs. If he can't keep the walks down, he'll more likely fit as a closer or 8th inning guy. All in all, Samardzija is a revelation, and I wouldn't have said that just 3 years ago.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Who Plays for the Cubs?

Let’s take a look at the current 40-man roster:

Pitchers (21)
Scott Baker
Jeff Beliveau
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Shawn Camp
Lendy Castillo
Gerardo Concepcion
Rafael Dolis
Scott Feldman
Kyuji Fujikawa
Matt Garza
Carlos Marmol
Trey McNutt
Brooks Raley
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Arodys Vizcaino
Rob Whitenack
Travis Wood

Catchers (3)
Welington Castillo
Dioner Navarro
Steve Clevenger

Infielders (8)
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Junior Lake
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena
Christian Villanueva
Josh Vitters
Logan Watkins

Outfielders (7)
Tony Campana
David DeJesus
Brett Jackson
Dave Sappelt
Nate Scheirholtz
Jorge Soler
Alfonso Soriano
Matt Szczur

The first thing that jumps out to me is the sheer number of players not ready to contribute at the major league level. We’ve got a few injuries (Vizcaino, Garza, Baker, Feldman) and a few true prospects (Soler, Villanueva), and it really stretches our “effective roster” quite thin.

In the outfield, we currently are slated to send out Soriano in left, DeJesus in center, and Schierholtz in right. Sappelt and Campana are the likely candidates to be the 4th/5th OF, as Jackson is by FO edict destined to start the season repeating AAA. Soler and Szczur are both at least a year away, more for Soler.

There aren’t any candidates in the outfield for dropping off the 40-man, but there are a few trade options. Both DeJesus and Soriano both have (in my estimation) a 25% chance of being traded before Opening Day. However, unless Jackson comes up to start in Center (I like the idea), they’d need to find another outfielder anyway. The FO’s stance on Jackson kind of freezes up the outfield.

The infielder situation is similarly dire. You’ve got Valbuena, Castro, Barney, and Rizzo manning the 4 positions, with a contingency for Stewart to make the team. Lake, Watkins, and Villanueva are all far from contributing. Vitters is in the Jackson boat of being held back a year (another error, in my opinion). This situation affords no backups. If you think Stewart can play 3B productively, Valbuena can play multiple positions…but then you have to make room on the 40-man that you don’t have for infielders. This is another area that the Cubs will have to change.

Catching gives you your first easy cut: Steve Clevenger. He’s very likely to go unclaimed, so you can still have him for emergencies. He’s the clear-cut number 3 catcher on the team. You need the roster spot, and I don’t think there’s any real difference between Clevenger and Brenly. This is an easy cut.

Pitching is where things get difficult. The following are locks to make the team (barring trades):
Scott Baker
Shawn Camp
Scott Feldman
Kyuji Fujikawa (what an awesome name)
Matt Garza
Carlos Marmol
Jeff Samardzija
Travis Wood
James Russell

The following will not make the team barring some huge shift:
Gerardo Concepcion (A-)
Alberto Cabrera (conversion to starter)
Michael Bowden (conversion to starter)
Lendy Castillo (AA)
Arodys Vizcaino (injury)
Rob Whitenack (AA)

Which leave the following in play:
Jeff Beliveau
Rafael Dolis
Trey McNutt
Brooks Raley
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin

We’ve already established that the Cubs need at least one infielder, and I’ve identified what I believe is an extremely likely cut (Clevenger) to make up that room. If Soriano or DeJesus or both are traded, we need a replacement outfielder or two (depending on the Jackson edict) and it will come from one of the bottom two lists.

I think the most likely cuts at this point are Chris Rusin and Gerardo Concepcion. Rusin probably won’t clear waivers, but he’s got a shot. I don’t think his upside is greater than, say, a Brooks Raley or Jeff Beliveau. Concepcion will clear waivers most likely, and I wouldn’t be that sad if he didn’t.

If I had to guess, I’d say the Cubs break camp with the following roster:

LF DeJesus
CF Jackson/Campana
RF Schierholtz/Sappelt
1B Rizzo
2B Barney
SS Castro
3B Stewart
UTIL Valbuena
UTIL Undetermined Player Not on Current 40-man
C Castillo
C Navarro
13 position players

P Garza
P Samardzija
P Wood
P Feldman
P Raley
CL Fujikawa
SU Russell
SR Camp
SR McNutt
MR Rondon
LOOGY Beliveau
SR Undetermined Player Not on Current 40-man
12 pitchers

40: Villanueva, Soler, Concepcion, Cabrera, Bowden, Baker (15-day DL), Castillo, Dolis, Whitenack, Lake, Vitters, Watkins, Szczur, 0-2 returns from Soriano trade/spring training.

60-day DL: Vizcaino
Off the 40: Clevenger, Rusin

That gives a spot or two to leeway, depending on the return from a Soriano/DeJesus/Garza trade, a spring training shocker, or if Vizcaino doesn’t need to go on the 60-day.

It’s fun to guess, but I’m sure free agency will do something to change this immeasurably.

Better Know a Cub: Welington Castillo

Coming into the 2012 season, the Cubs had an interesting catching debate, and it wasn’t for the starting job. Geovany Soto still had some of that old sheen on him, but behind him was a pair of catchers that were dueling for the backup C job, neither a world-beater in the minors. One of the two was Steve Clevenger, the early favorite. He’d provide a left-handed bench bat and the ability to play first base. He won the job out of spring training and set the world on fire (with a .500/.522/.727 line in April) until getting hurt. Soto would take some time off with an injury as well.

Enter Welington Castillo.

He was called up on April 28 and was slotted into the 8th spot. A lot was made about his defensive catching abilities (or lack thereof), and people were ready to get Clevenger back in there (though most Cubs fans would readily admit that any option was better than Koyie Hill).

However, Welington Castillo was able to do at least one thing well, and that’s hit.

He hit .265/.337/.418 in 190 PA last year, which is not only acceptable for a catcher but quite good. Defensively, he was good for a 25% CS, trivially far from the league average of 27%. There certainly could be problems with his game-calling abilities, but that is anecdotal and in any case very hard for me to quantify. In any case, he played well enough (and Soto and Clevenger went cliff-diving) that he cemented himself as the starting catcher for 2013. Soto was traded and I’d be mildly surprised if Clevenger is on the Cubs 40-man on Opening Day.

Offense

The first thing to notice about Castillo’s line last year is that it was propped up considerably by a .348 BABIP. That’s a number that just isn’t going to be in Welington’s toolbox. I’d imagine that will come down to around .285 or .290, unless he has a much-improved hit tool. Take those singles out of the equation, and his line becomes much less savory- think .220/.300/.380.

He’s also a strike out risk. Last year, he struck out 26.8% of the time. That number is anywhere from 20 to 25% in the minors, too; he’s going to strike out a fair amount. On the other hand, he also draws his share of walks: around 10% in the minors, 9% in the majors last year. I think we can be confident that he’s not going to get overmatched as far as pitch selection goes.

Welington also saw 3.93 P/PA last season. That’s just a hair over the league average. It’s always an encouraging sign to see players that grind out their PA when they enter the league.

Castillo will not be stealing any bases any time soon.

It is going to be interesting to see how Castillo adjusts to the drop in BABIP next year. If he doesn’t improve somewhere else, he’s not going to be a very useful catcher, though he won’t kill the team either. If he does take a step forward (by being more comfortable in the majors, developing a little more power or contact), and repeats a line in the .260/.330/.410 territory, he’ll be a nice little piece.

Defense

I’m not expert on catcher defense. That being said, I’ll defer to some of the scouting reports, which say that’s he’s an average to above-average defender that has some problems with game managing. He also apparently doesn’t frame all that well. I think if those are actually problems, they are presumably very fixable.

Summary

I don’t think Welington is a “sexy” prospect. I think his ceiling isn’t that high and he’ll never be the cornerstone of a team. I do think, however, that his floor is pretty high. It doesn’t take many leaps to imagine a .240/.320/.430 guy at C with good defense. These players have value, and the Cubs need as many of them as they can get. There is no catching prospect even close to threatening in the pipeline, so Castillo is going to get every chance in the world to succeed. I believe he will.


Better Know a Cub: Starlin Castro

As I try to re-boot this old blog, I thought it would be a good idea to include a post on each player on the Cubs 40-man roster as they enter it. Unfortunately for me (or fortunately, depending), that means I have a backlog of 40 profiles to do. I’m going to start with the people who (hopefully) are long-term parts of our franchise, and work my way forward to the fringes of our team.

Starlin Castro is, as of this post, 22 years of age. The list of 22-year old middle infielders with over 2.5 seasons of experience is pretty low. Here is the list of players to have done it since Castro’s birth:

Alex Rodriguez
Starlin Castro
Edgar Renteria
Elvis Andrus

That’s some pretty lofty company, all told. Of the 4, Rodriguez obviously became an otherworldly talent who went on to win 3 MVPs. I think we’d all be happy if Castro’s career arc resembled A-Rod’s even slightly. The other 2 players on the list are currently being outdone by Castro’s performance (I wish I could learn how to embed the B-Ref page). They both have better gloves than Castro, but the same OBP and a good deal less power.

We’ve established that Castro is a rare talent due to his age. What can we expect going forward, though?

Offense

First, let’s take a look at his BABIP. This usually hovers around .300; any higher and you can get suspicious (though faster players and players that have better bat control may have higher numbers). Castro went from a BABIP of .346 in his first year to .344 to .315 last year. This was the primary driver for his decreased numbers this year; unfortunately, it seems more likely to be the “true” BABIP for Starlin going forward. .350 is a really, really high average; you’d have to be Campana-fast and/or Votto-accurate to reasonably expect an average in that realm.

For Castro to grow offensively, he’s going to have to make his gains in other areas. There are a few ways he could do that:

1. Increase his walk rate.
Castro has tended around 5.2% in BB% for his career, compared to a league average of 8.2%. This is a very feasible thing to increase and the reasons are two-fold. First, his plate discipline has room for improvement. Obviously, gains in this area will directly affect his walk rate. Second, and more importantly, Castro is still growing into some power. His HR% is trending up, as his ISO. As he grows into his power, he’s going to become more dangerous as a hitter. As a result, he should theoretically get worse pitches to hit, which result in more walks.

2. See more pitches.
This is the close relative of the first bullet point. Castro is a tremendously gifted athlete. He can put a bat on a ball with the best of them, and does not strike out very often. His ability to make contact means he can put a lot of balls in play. Unfortunately, those balls are increasingly less likely to result in hits. This ends up hurting the Cubs in the aggregate, because Castro’s PA end early (3.46 P/PA last year) and result in pitchers going deeper against them. If Castro sees more pitches, he’ll inevitably see more pitches that he can actually do something with (and, alternatively, more walks). This is the “selectively aggressive” stance that the Cubs FO is trying to infuse in the organization.

3. Be smarter on the basepaths.
This is a minor gripe, but Castro sure does get picked off at first a lot, and he led the league in CS last year. Those are outs the Cubs quite frankly can’t afford to give away.

All in all, these are relatively doable action items. As it stands right now, Castro is slightly above a league-average bat playing a premium position. If he never gets better than he is right now, he’s still a valuable piece. If he gets better, he’s going to be the type of player you wouldn’t hesitate building your whole club around.

Defense
Castro has been a frustrating defender these past 3 seasons. He led the league in errors both this year and last, and would have led them in 2010 had he played a full season. At his current pace, he’ll be the active leader in SS errors by age 29. However, he also led the league in assists both this year and last. His Range Factor was best in the league last year, 3rd the year before.

Castro’s great strength is the sheer number of balls he can get to. Part of me thinks that’s positioning, but he’s done it through 3 different managers (the fact that Castro has played under 3 managers in 3 years is a little sad.). Even if his conversion rating on these plays isn’t ideal (improving in that respect), I think on the whole it’s a wash. His F2O% has climbed to 88% this year, compared to a league average of 89%, so he’s converting balls fielded into outs at roughly the same rate as the other guys- he just so happens to get to more balls in general than the other guys do.

The problem, of course, is that each play you mess up counts more than the plays you don’t make. That ball deep in the hole is still only a single if you miss; the easy play you throw over Rizzo’s head is now a “double.” Last year, Castro errors resulted in 21 men reaching that would not have otherwise; this probably erodes all of his “good will” in getting to more balls.

That said, he’s improving in this area, and I believe he will continue to improve.

Summary
Castro is under team control for the next 8 years. The contract he is signed to will pay him 53 million through 2019, with a 16 million option (1 million buyout) for 2020. This is a moderately team-friendly contract. According to BR, Castro provided 3.5 WAR last year, and 3.0 WAR the year before that. If he only ever gets to 3.5 WAR, that’s 28 WAR over 8 years for 69 million dollars. That’s still a great deal…and I expect him to improve over time anyway! I am very happy that Castro is a Cub right now, and hopefully will be for a long, long time.

Rice Cube on Theo and context

I love this blog. Last night, RC posted a link to a one-sided article about how Theo Epstein is overrated and I said that I wished someone would take a fair look at it. RC did just that and I'm glad he did. He was responding to this article from last year.

Since that ‘04 title run, Epstein has been looked at as a man among boys to Sox fans. He was a key cog in helping finally garner that elusive championship. However, he has not kept to that standard. In fact, he’s made some of the worst moves of any GM over the last seven years. Don’t believe me? Here’s a few guys he’s picked up and what it cost to get them: John Lackey ($82.5 mill), Carl Crawford ($142 mill), Mike Cameron ($15.5 mill), John Smoltz ($5.5 mill), JD Drew ($70 mill), Edgar Renteria ($40 mill), Daisuke Matsuzaka ($103 mill, including bid price), Matt Clement ($25 mill), Julio Lugo ($36 mill) and Bobby Jenks ($12 mill). That doesn’t even include the players he acquired via trade that did nothing for his team: Wily Mo Pena (cost: Bronson Arroyo), Eric Gagne (David Murphy) and Ramon Ramirez (Coco Crisp).

All of thiw is true. It's simply a fact and it's a part of what Theo has done over the years in baseball. I disagree that all these contracts were bad. Some were worse than others, but I rather liked the JD Drew signing, but that's irrelevant. The fact is that Theo has made a lot of mistakes. There's nothing wrong with pointing this out. To pretend it didn't happen doesn't get us anywhere. RC acknowledges that and adds this:

The 2002 Red Sox, before Theo took over,  already had some superstars in Nomar Garciaparra, Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez.  One could argue that Theo didn’t fix what wasn’t broken.  By 2003, Theo had added David Ortiz, Bill Mueller and Kevin Millar to the mix, as well as a very talented reliever in Mike Timlin.  Curt Schilling came over in 2004.  And of course all Cubs fans know about Nomar being traded to Chicago while Boston won it all, with another impact player by the name of Kevin Youkilis (drafted pre-Theo but implemented during Theo’s tenure).

And finally we look at 2007, which was again almost completely ignored.  Dustin Pedroia – drafted in 2004.  Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett – acquired in trade (ironically featured on MLBTR today) in 2005.  Jacoby Ellsbury – drafted in 2005.  Jonathan Papelbon – drafted in 2003 (still Theo).  Hideki Okajima – signed in 2006.  Pedro Martinez was gone.  Bronson Arroyo, oh he of the lamented trade, also gone.  No Nomar, no Trot Nixon, no O-Dog, no more Johnny Damon.  Can we at least consider that Theo built the 2007 team almost entirely from scratch?  The only holdovers were David Ortiz (a Theo acquisition), Kevin Youkilis (who started playing under Theo’s tenure), Jason Varitek (the captain), Manny Ramirez (because he doesn’t suck), Curt Schilling, Mike Timlin, Doug Mirabelli (a backup catcher, yay) and Tim Wakefield (who doesn’t age).

This is fantastic. It didn't take an exhaustive amount of research to find the many things that Theo did that were great and productive deals for the team. There were many good decisions and many bad decisions. Even Theo acknowledged that's part of the game the first day he was hired when he said the best GMs get it right 55% of the time. That's a lot of times when they get it wrong.

There are some people, mainly Red Sox fans and random idiots, who would like to pretend all of these things didn't happen. It's no better to pretend these things happened than it is to completely ignore the bad things. Both create imperfect pictures of who Theo has been and is likely to be moving forward. Theo Epstein is a human being and as such, he's made many mistakes, some of which have been ridiculous (Lackey, Crawford, Dice-K come to mind) and some of them just didn't turn out well. Some decisions turned out better than expected and some just reached the expectations they were paid for.

Sometimes he got it right. Sometimes he got it wrong. That's just how it is being a GM. There's no such thing as a GM who always makes the right decisions or a GM who never does. If the best GMs get it right 55% of the time, the worst ones probably get it right 45% of the time. Think about it, some of these decisions could be made by braindead idiots. It's like a routine fly ball to center field. It's a player every damn CF would make. Most of the decisions the front office make are comparable to routine flies to the outfield.

Good GMs will get a lot of things wrong and bad GMs will get a lot of things wrong. To suggest otherwise is absurd.

Very well done by RC.

The Way We Were- A look back at Logan Watkins in 2012

My fellow eFriends, I have returned from my sabbatical and will be writing up a few prospect recaps for some of the more interesting Cubs minor leaguers. So enjoy that.

Logan Watkins was drafted in the 21st round of the 2008 draft. He was a HS stud from Goddard KS which is a town as exactly small as it sounds. He was sent off to AZ for his age 18 season and in 107 AB's showed he was advanced for rookie ball. Watkins hit .325/.462/.363 (.414 wOBA, 140 wRC+) while playing 2B and some LF.

The following season he was promoted to the next level, a trend he has followed every single season thus far. In Boise Watkins put up a wRC+ of 118 which is pretty great for a 19 year old. It was pretty much the with a slash line similar to his AZ campaign, high BA, good eye at the plate but little to no slugging. However it was a good enough year that following the season Watkins made it to # 12 on John Sickels prospect list. He primarily stuck at 2B during his time in Boise but the following season in Peoria would see 22 games in CF and 19 at SS.

Peoria was the only stop where Watkins has struggled so far as his BA plummeted to .265. His wRC+ was 97 and he still was showing no power at all so I remember thinking at best he was going to be a utility at some point. However, to his credit he still had a OBP around 90 points higher than his BA. His good approach was still keeping him somewhat productive at the plate and any Cub prospect who can tell balls and strikes is a rarity in itself.

Watkins was promoted to Daytona the following year and while he was no longer even mentioned on Sickels prospect rankings he got himself back on track. His .281/.352/.404 line probably did set the world on fire but he finally was showing the ability to hit for extra bases. He hit 5 HR's and raised his wRC + to 111 in a pitcher friendly league. He also started to be more effective on the base paths stealing at a 21/26 rate.

This year Watkins continued his one level at a time progression spending the season at AA Tennessee. It was his best season so far as he posted a wRC+ of 130 while spending time at CF, SS in addition to 95 games at 2B. Watkins hit 9 home runs and 11 triples on his way to posting a .422 slugging %. He stole 28 bases in 35 attempts and continued his patient approach posting an OBP of .383. He was rewarded for his efforts by being named the Cubs minor league player of the year in addition to picking up mentions from ESPN and the hometown Wichita Eagle as a prospect on the rise. 

So now that we recapped what he's done the question is where is he going to end up.

Personally, I think Watkins is the 2B of the future. I enjoy Darwin Barney as much as the next guy but the fact of the matter is he can't hit worth a shit. As soon as he starts making millions in the arb process I think TheoJed finds a new team for the gold glover and promotes Watkins. Since Watkins has continued to play multiple positions at every level perhaps a year as a utility guy could be in the works to acclimate him to the bigs. For me the ETA is late 2013 with him being up for good starting in 2014. I like the fact that he does a little of everything, is a left handed bat and by all accounts is a leader in the clubhouse.

If he pans out he would give us a cost controlled 2B through the through the end of the decade and would be making league minimum through 2016/2017. He could definitely be a part of the next contending core group. Plus he's from KS so that's worth like +20 on the intangible scale.

However, he does not come from an organization like the Toronto Blue Jays so he's got one strike against him already.

Sources- Wichita Eagle, milb.com, Fangraphs, ESPN, Baseball Ref,

Fangraphs Top 15 Cubs Prospects

It's that time of the year, so Fangraphs released their version of the top Cubs prospects list right behind Baseball Prospectus' list from a few days ago. In case you are wondering, I'm sure OV will have our own top Cubs prospects list just as soon as the search teams find DJ and we can chain him back up to his computer again.

But let's not steal Fangraphs' thunder right now, since I expect some other site to steal its thunder within a day or two anyway.

The Fangraphs Top 15 are (rank from BP):

  1. Javier Baez (2)
  2. Albert Almora (1)
  3. Jorge Soler (3)
  4. Dillon Maples (10)
  5. Dan Vogelbach (5)
  6. Arodys Vizcaino (4)
  7. Brett Jackson (6)
  8. Matt Szczur (NR)
  9. Christian Villanueva (9)
  10. Josh Vitters (NR)
  11. Marco Hernandez (NR)
  12. Jeimer Candelario (NR)
  13. Junior Lake (NR)
  14. Duane Underwood (8)
  15. Trey Martin (NR)

So there are a couple of interesting choices here. First, Dillon Maples is awfully high for a kid who pitched a total of 10+ innings for the organization last year. They love his potential:

As a pitcher, the scout said the North Carolina native is a “horse of a kid” with a plus fastball that can touch 95-97 mph with a plus 12-to-6 “wipeout” curveball. “It’s as good a breaking ball as I’ve seen… while scouting,” he added. “He has a chance to throw three plus pitches.” … The scout said Maples has the ceiling of a top-of-the-rotation starter. “He’s a very focus kid.”

So that's nice to hear about an organization as weak in the pitching department as the Cubs are. But at 20 years old, and only 10 innings last year, he's nowhere close to joining the rotation any time soon.

The other ranking that really stuck out to me was Josh Vitters even being included in this list. I think we pretty much found out that he is who we all feared he was, namely, not good enough to play in the majors. What's interesting is that Fangraphs seems to agree:

The third overall selection of the 2007 amateur draft, Vitters has been a disappointment during the first six seasons of his pro career. Although he’s always hit for a high average, his overly-aggressive approach will not allow him to hit for average in the majors.

He doesn’t have much power, and there are also questions about his ability to stick at the hot corner. The Pacific Coast League helped Vitters produce fairly solid offensive numbers but the bottom fell out when he reached the majors and he struck out more than 33% of the time. When I watched the young third baseman he took a four-pitch walk but none of the pitches were close to the strike zone.

The bolding is mine, but that's an awful lot of dumping on a guy you just ranked as the Cubs' #10 prospect. That does not speak well of anybody ranked below Vitters.

I also found it interesting and somewhat encouraging that three of the top six (Almora, Soler, and Vizcaino) were brought in by Theo and Jed, while the remaining three were part of Hendry's last draft so they didn't get much of any instruction in the Hendry-led see-fastball, hit-fastball approach that preceded Theo's Cubs Way of working the count and grinding out at-bats. So maybe we'll see a higher percentage of these guys work out over time. I don't know, I'm grasping at straws for positives here, people.

Profiles In Rebuilding- The Cleveland Indians

After Theo and Co. were hired at the end of last season, Cubdom was collectively filled with a sense of manifest destiny. A majority of us, I think, breathed a sigh of relief and started channeling our inner Alvin. Finally, a front office on the vanguard, saying all the right things about performance evaluation, rebuilding the organization from the ground up, and winning. The best was yet to come. The only question was how many years it would take before the promised perennial contender descended from the clouds, reported to Mesa, and began battling the playoff luck gods to claim their World Series title.

For me, the disillusionment came suddenly. In November of 2011, a new collective bargaining agreement effectively guillotined the "rebuild through the draft" strategy. International free agency binges were prohibited. The luring of guys away from strong college commitments with wads of cash was done.The acquisition of lots of picks suddenly became impossible. (Although it helps to be a small market team eligible for extra competitive balance picks. You know, a small market team like the Cardinals, whose core fan base covers roughly the territory of the entire Louisiana Purchase along with most of Illinois and large swaths of Dixie). Suddenly, building through free agency became a much more viable option. By December, however, it was clear that the Cubs had no intentions of going down that road.

My sense is that a majority of Cub fans have joined me in my disenchantment of late; 100-loss seasons have a knack for bumming out even the most optimistic fans. There are a few stragglers out there, though, and it is for them that I have long wanted to write up some profiles of long-term rebuilding projects that have taken place recently throughout the major leagues.

Rebuilding is hard. Perhaps the only thing more difficult is to write up profiles of other teams that have tried to rebuild. That's why it's nice when a legendary sabermetrician decides to do most of the work for you. Ostensibly Patriot's piece is a rant complaining about the firing of Manny Acta, but it provides a nice thumbnail sketch of the Shapiro regime in Cleveland.

Mark Shapiro was hired in Cleveland after the 2001 season, inheriting an aging, offensive-juggernaut of a team and setting out to completely rebuild it, to put a perennial contender on the field based on homegrown talent, and to read the market better than other teams. In short, they set out to do the same things that every smart front office sets out to do. I have long admired the analytically-minded Shapiro, to the point where I would have been happy if the Cubs hired him, because, well… I'll let Patriot explain:

The Indians have done a great job of trading for players either in the minors or very early in their major league careers. Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner, Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Brantley, Chris Perez, Coco Crisp, and Justin Masterson are examples.

It's hard to image a front office doing any better than that. It's nothing less than a stunning collection of talent to have acquired via trade. If THoyer was half as successful in that department, I think most would consider it a rousing success.

But it hasn't been nearly enough. Sure, the Indians have had a couple of really good seasons under Shapiro (2005 and 2007), but perennial contender they ain't. They haven't been nearly as successful in drafting (which is interesting because they obviously have a talented scouting department) or signing free agents. And therein lies my general malaise about the rebuilding process. A front office can be fantastically succesful in one area and still end up with decidedly mediocre results.

It could certainly be argued that had the Shapiro regime been backed by Ricketts cash, they would have been able to supplement their young core with better free agents and perhaps acquire better players in the draft. I think there is some truth to that contention, but I'm not sure that matters as much in 2012 as it did from 2002-2011. There just aren't as many good free agents on the market any more, and I think the ones that do make it there before their early 30s are going to command huge sums. In short, I think successful rebuilding projects, now more than ever, require a whole lot of luck.