Programming Note: As you may have noticed, posts have become slightly more scarce over the offseason (in which we celebrated the Cubs winning the World Series after a 3-1 deficit). I think that happened for two reasons. The first is that the Cubs won the World Series, so it's sort of like the ending of a book. They reached the promised land, and there wasn't that much more to say. Our need to think about baseball went away for a little while. The second is that the Cubs just didn't do that much in the offseason. With the exception of Wade Davis, the Cubs are basically the same team as they were last year. When that team won the World Series after a 3-1 deficit, there isn't that much to change, but nonetheless it still made a boring offseason. Additionally, I now have baby Russell to tote around, and having 2 kids means less time to blog.

Now that the season is fast approaching, and I've started to get the itch to talk baseball again, I'm hoping to pick up the pace. Hopefully I can convince the other writers to do the same.

I'm going to take a look at the 201 Cubs, starting with the best players and taking a descending order. I'm just sorting by projected WAR (ZIPS). 

Kris Bryant (3B)

In 2016: Fairly decent season, as Bryant slashed .292/.385/.554 with 39 HR, 75 BB, and the NL MVP award and 8.4 WAR.

In 2017: Bryant is projected to slash .274/.372/.512 with 33 HR, 78 BB, and 5.8 WAR.

In Haiku: 

Whistling overhead –
Another ball exploded.
Wears Express clothing.

Kris Bryant is either the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best baseball player. Number 1 is clearly Mike Trout. I'd have Bryant as number 2, though I'm willing to listen to arguments on either Clayton Kershaw (the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez) or Josh Donaldson (who has slightly more pedigree than Bryant, and similar if not slightly better offensive numbers in a better league [though easier offensive environment]). He's just 25, and he has 15 career WAR. Before 2016, he was a great, but flawed player – he led the league in strikeouts (199!), and the worry was that he wouldn't be able to cut that number without a significant dip in power. Well, he went from 30.6% to 22.0% while increasing his ISO from .213 to .262. When a top-20 offensive player gets better in every way, while getting BETTER at defense, you've got a special player. Bryant used to lead Rizzo off the bag and into the first base line. That stopped in 2016. The only thing that I'm even slightly worried about is the fact that he pulled a LOT of balls last year. He's a shiftable righty, and there aren't that many of those. Honestly, though, who cares? They aren't shifting bums – they shift players who are blistering the ball on the regular. 

One thing you might be able to worry about is how Bryant sort of fell off at the end of the year. In Sept/Oct, he slashed .221/.293/.375 –

Wait. What's that you say? Bryant slashed .308/.400/.523 in the playoffs last year, with 3 HR? Oh, ok, forget I said anything.

Seriously, Bryant is the type of player you can build a team around, and he's one of two players the Cubs have for which that is true. Bryant isn't a free agent until 2022, when he'll cash in to a ridiculous, ridiculous contract. I wouldn't expect a hometown discount, but he's absolutely a player the Cubs will want around for 15 years.

 

I have a funny game that I'd like to play. It's no secret that the Cubs have been tremendously lucky over the past 4 years, drafting-wise (and even Almora is good from 5 drafts ago). What shocked me is just how good the Cubs have been – they could easily have not had an opportunity to take Bryant or Schwarber and ended up with them both. Happ was the 9th pick in the draft his year, and looks better than many drafted ahead of him. That got me thinking. Which package would you rather have:

Option 1

Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

Option 2

Jon Gray, Kohl Stewart, Clint Frazier, Colin Moran, Nick Gordon, Alex Jackson, Aaron Nola, Kyle Freeland, Cornelius Randolph, Tyler Stephenson, Josh Naylor, Garrett Whitley

Option 1 is who the Cubs drafted. Option 2 is the 4 players afterwards in each of the drafts. There's a lot to unpack, so let's organize those 12.

Flotsam (projected lifetime WAR of 1.0 or less)

Alex Jackson, Cornelius Randolph, Tyler Stephenson, Josh Naylor

Intriguing (org top 10, not top 101)

Kohl Stewart, Kyle Freeland, Garrett Whitley

Nice Prospects (top 101 prospects)

Clint Frazier, Nick Gordon

Role Players (bench pieces, back-end starters)

Colin Moran

Starters 

Jon Gray, Aaron Nola

Superstars

None

First, let's start with Ian Happ. I think he's probably worth all the intriguing guys and flotsam combined – in fact, the Cubs would probably need a little more than that in the theoretical trade. Still, it's close enough, and it's a 7-for-1. Stewart is probably a 7th inning guy, and Freeland (who I still like a lot) profiles as a 5th starter/Travis Wood type. Out of the other 5, you'd be surprised if you got a bench piece, but they were first rounders for a reason.

Next, let's deal with Schwarber. If the Cubs traded Schwarber, they'd clearly be able to get Gordon and Frazier, with Moran as more-or-less a throw-in. Frazier is a legit stud prospect, and Gordon is probably a starting 2B in the near future. Moran is a corner infielder on the bench, but that's still a valuable piece for a rookie contract. I don't think you could get Gray or Nola AND the rest of that package, though – just look at the price that young pitching has commanded recently.

That said, Bryant could return Gray and Nola and the Cubs would need way more to say yes to that. This seems obvious. I'm super-high on Gray, but super-high means that "I think he can solve his high-leverage problems and become a No.3 starter." Aaron Nola is a No.3 starter right now. Kris Bryant is the 2nd, 3rd or 4th best player in baseball depending on how you feel about Kershaw and Donaldson.

Put it all together, and I think you'd pretty convincingly rather have Happ, Schwarber, and Bryant over the 12 players drafted after them. That's sort of unbelievable to think about, and yet it's extremely plausible. Moreover, you'd probably agree with each one for each year:

2013 – Bryant over Gray, Stewart, Frazier, Moran (this is probably close, but edge to Bryant certainly)
2014 – Schwarber over Gordon, Jackson, Nola, Freeland (again, this is probably close, maybe even dead even, but Schwarber is the highest impact and a relative sure thing)
2015 – Happ over Randolph, Stephenson, Naylor, Whitley (this isn't close)

That's just some incredible, incredible drafting by JedCo. We are extremely fortunate.

Last year, I wrote about Addison Russell in pretty glowing terms. The last paragraph from that post:

This team is so incredibly deep, that you can imagine a scenario in which Russell puts up 4 WAR this year and gets absolutely no attention from a national outlet. Don't make that mistake. 

bWAR: 4.3
fWAR: 3.9
WARP: 3.9

Seriously, the exact scenario happened. Of course, a lot of that is due to the fact that the Cubs won the World Series in 7 games, but despite the fact that Cubs won the World Series in 7 games (and Bryant won the MVP), Addison Russell sort of sneakily took the leap that you'd expect of a 22-year old destined for greatness

Offense

Russell had 75 more PA than last year. He added 13 walks, subtracted 6 SO, added 9 HBP (!), added 8 HR, and lost 47 points of BABIP. That last one is what I want to key on; it is the sole reason people haven't caught on to the fact that Russell is well above-average with the bat already. It isn't like Russell is slower than he used to be. He lost 5 points of medium contact and split it bewteen soft and hard contact, but his LD% actually went up 3 percent. He was simply unlucky last year; despite that, his wRC+ improved 4 points, his walks went up, his strikeouts went down, his power went up, as did his OBP. There really isn't that much more you can ask for in an age-22 season. Among qualified SS last year, Russell had the 3rd highest walk rate and the 7th highest power rate. He needs to cut his strikeouts a little and not have such a low BABIP (things that variance and age should provide). I'm going to go out on a limb and say this is the year that Russell gets a 110 wRC+ or higher.

Defense

It's hard to really say definitively if Russell is a great defender or not, given the large sample sizes required and the spurious nature of defensive statistics. If we are taking the eye test, he's very good, even great. Using Inside Edge, he's even better. In the "Remote" category of plays (1-10% chance of success), he was 6th in the majors (3rd among SS) with a 21.4% conversion rate. He was middle of the road for the difficult ones (28.6%), and well above-average in the toss-ups (55.6%, though the sample size is small). Where he really shined was his ability to convert the fairly routine. Among plays that had a 60-90% conversion rate, Russell converted 85.0% of his playes. That's 3rd among SS, and only Lindor and Cabrera were better. The routine plays are where Russell was merely average.

Russell doesn't have to be the best defensive SS in the game to be valuable. A league-average defensive SS with a league-average MLB bat is a very valuable player. Last year, however, Russell was a well above-average defensive SS with a slightly below-average MLB bat, and that produced 4 wins above replacement (close to an all-star level performance – though Russell made the ASG this year, he was slightly undeserving). Russell has shown every reason to believe he'll instead be a well above-average defensive SS with an above-average (maybe even well above-average) MLB bat, which is around 6 WAR a year. Russell is under team control until (get this) 2022. 

Not a bad return for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.

For my present to Addison Russell, I want to get dangerously optimistic and misleading here (not quite alternative facts, but close). Russell just completed his age-22 season, and he ended the season with 7.6 bWAR. The list of hall-of-fame shortstops had a median bWAR of 6.9 career WAR through their age-22 season. Put another way, Russell is just ahead of the pace of an average HOF shortstop's career.

Happy freaking birthday.

 

 

The owners and the MLBPA came to an agreement, and there is a new 5-year collective bargaining agreement. Baseball is about to change some.

The winning league of the all-star game no longer gets homefield advantage in the World Series. It now goes to the team with the best record. This is a great change.

The 15-day DL is now the 10-day DL. This is a very good change as well, and a boon for the players.

The regular season will be lengthened by 5 days, to give more off days. I think this is a slightly bad thing for fans (would have preferred 2 or 3 days), but it's better for the players and probably slightly better for quality.

There is now a "phi base" between 2nd and 3rd that players must avoid. Weird change, but we'll see how it plays out.

The Athletics are being phased out of revenue sharing over the next 4 years. Hard to see this as anything other than punishment to the owners for the dump they play in.

The dirt on the warning track is being replaced with trampolines. It'll take some getting used to, for sure, but this is an unequivocal benefit to the game.

The compensation system is being drastically overhauled. Signing FAs will now only cost either a 2nd and 5th rounder or a 3rd rounder, depending on some spending/market thresholds.

Players will now run the opposite way around the bases in the 5th inning.

Teams have pledged to get to pre-1980s levels of emissions by 2021.

Major League Baseball no longer acknowledges the state of Montana.

Smokeless tobacco is now banned in clubhouses, though current players are grandfathered in.

 

 

Electoral College has hired Donald Trump, 70, as the new general manager of the United States Americans.

Terms of the deal are not finalized, but they look to be 4/59,611,678, with a 4 year team option.

Trump said “I’ve spent my entire life in business, looking at the untapped potential in projects and in people all over the world.”

“That is now what I want to do for our country. Tremendous potential. I’ve gotten to know our country so well. Tremendous potential. It is going to be a beautiful thing. Every single American will have the opportunity to realize his or her fullest potential.”

Americans have no doubt looked into the masterwork that Theo Epstein has done with the Cubs, and emulated the same strategy of getting way worse before you get better.

“If you look at the Cubs, they were just kind of mediocre for a while. It took 2 or 3 years of awful baseball before they finally took that giant leap forward. We think that Trump is just the manager to shepherd us through that first part,” said Cletus Barnwell Jr., his confederate flag fanny pack overflowing with coupons to the local St. Louis-style pizza joint.

Missouri voted for Donald Trump by a 57-38 margin.

“I’ve had successes and I’ve had setbacks. Sometimes, really painful ones. Many of you are at the beginning of your professional, public, and political careers—you will have successes and setbacks too,” Hillary Clinton said.

“This loss hurts, but please never stop believing that fighting for what’s right is worth it.”

This was Clinton’s second high-profile loss in the latter stages of the interviewing process. Many will remember her loss for the ’08 vacancy, when she was passed over for the first black manager in our history. Clinton now has the honor of being passed over for the first child president in our history as well.

America has never hired a woman manager for some fucking reason.

America’s newest manager is going to have a lot of tough decisions, with a spot in the Supreme Court left to fill and a vast pool of free agents with which to fill it. The Civil Rights Act is also set to expire soon – earliest indications are that Trump is not looking to re-sign that one. Generally, a new manager wants to bring in his own staff as well, and we’ve already heard that he plans to bring on living bag of sweat Chris Christie as his Attorney General, though perhaps generic 90’s villain Rudolph Giuliani will get the call. The only certain move is that Secretary of State will be Newt Gingrich, who is exactly what you imagine someone named Newt Gingrich is.

The Electoral College’s plan seems clear. They expect to get bad in the next 4 years. Really bad. Like, how on Earth could it be this bad? That will probably weed out the voters who just wanted a “real talker” and the demographic of people who want presidents that lose 916 million dollars in a single year for some reason. Then, some strong minority development should in turn make the farm system of not insane candidates much more robust, and we’ll start to see them rise through the ranks of mayoral positions, state reps, and eventually even governorships, national representatives, and senators. If they get this right, they can emerge from the next few years stronger than they ever were before.

Or, they could complain ineffectually on the internet and think that changes something.

One thing is clear. The United States Americans are about to see some very bad inside baseball.

 

Holy shit. It’s here. Let’s get straight to it.

Catcher

This is the first area where the advantage clearly rests with the Cubs. Yan Gomes has been a good player up until 2016, but in 2016 he was Heyward-esque. He was replaced by Roberto Perez, who also had a nice 2015 and an abysmal 2016. The Cubs have a Cerberus of talent back there.

Robert Perez hit .183/.285/.294 in the regular season, which was improbably good enough to merit him getting EVERY SINGLE START in the playoffs for the Indians. He had a nice ALDS and was basically worthless in the ALCS. He comes out well enough defensively (in fact, all of his value is generated there).

There are two things you can be happy about at the plate if you’re a Perez fan. The first is his patient approach: he’s drawn a walk in 12.1% of his lifetime plate appearances. The other is his ability to hit the ball all around; he is about as diverse as you can get. That said, there’s a lot of swing and miss to his game, and if you can keep the ball down, he’ll fail to do anything productive with the ball if he even makes contact with it at all. Offensively, he’s a 3 of 10 and defensively he’s a 7 of 10. Overall, (I weight catchers at 70% offense, 30% defense), that means he’s a 4.2 of 10.

Short aside: My offense measure is this: I give the best wOBA at a position 10 of 10. The average wOBA at that position is a 5 of 10. The difference in the opposite direction is a 0 of 10. That means if the high is .350, the league average is a .300, then a 0 of 10 is .250. Defense is a guesstimate.) I use projected wOBA for the season if a player has had less than 200 PA, as was the case with Perez.

For the Cubs, you’ve got the three-headed giant of Contreras, Montero, and Ross. I’m going to cover Contreras as exclusively a LF for the purposes of this exercise, but I bet he’ll catch at least one game (I’m imagining the normal lineup with Contreras in LF and Zobrist in RF.) That means I’ll count Ross and Montero as 3 starts each.

David Ross shouldn’t retire, man. He’s had the best year of his last 7 by WAR, and last 4 just by wOBA. He’s walking at the best rate since 2008, and he hit double-digit dingers for the first time since 2007.  His defense was the best of his entire career (by rate). He should get Lester’s 2 starts; he might not get another because the entire rotation is right-handed. If Merritt starts Game 4 (Kluber is probably starting it on 3 days rest), that’s the only lefty that might start for Cleveland. Ross was a 7 of 10 with the bat and a 9 of 10 with the glove for a 7.6 of 10.

Montero, on the other hand, wasn’t as good. He was dinged up all year, and while the walks and strikeouts looked great, he had a little less power than last  year and a way worse BABIP. I’m not super worried about him offensively (and he did hit a grand slam in the playoffs), but he is certainly beatable this year. Luckily for him, Cleveland is very right-handed in the rotation, and he is much better against righties. Offensively, I give him a 5 of 10 and defensively a 5 of 10 for a 5 of 10. Overall, that gives the Cubs a 6.3 of 10 at the position.

Cubs: 6.3
Indians: 4.2

First Base

Mike Napoli had a very Mike Napoli type of year. You pretty much know that you can depend on a low AVG, middle OBP, and a high SLG. He obliged, hitting .239/.335/.465 with 34 HR. He’s sort of unique in the fact that he’s a right-handed 1B, and he isn’t over-shiftable – he’s not afraid to go the other way with the ball if given the chance. He’ll take his walks and he’ll also strikeout a ton. Napoli should be worked away, and preferably by a lefty. He has a slightly exaggerated split, though he’s no slouch no matter what hand you throw with. Defensively, Napoli is among the worst defenders there are. Offensively, Napoli is a 5 of 10, and a 1 of 10 defensively. I give 10% weight to 1B, so he gets a 4.6 of 10.

Anthony Rizzo was near the top of the class offensively this year, not only as a first base but (as follows logically) as any hitter in baseball. He’s turned in the same year as the last 2, with 32 HR and a .292/.385/.544 line with very few strikeouts. He stole a lot fewer bases this year (3 from 17 last year), but who cares: you knwo that with Rizzo you’re getting downballot MVP numbers at the plate. Rizzo rates poorly with the glove by metrics, but some of that (I assume) is just that his 2Bs are regularly vacuum cleaners who rob him of opportunities. Rizzo gets a 9 of 10 with the bat and a 4 of 10 with the glove, for a 8.5 of 10.

Cubs: 8.5
Indians: 4.6

Second Base

Jason Kipnis might be too injured to play, but I’m working under the assumption that he’ll be the primary 2B. I feel like it’s a safe assumption given it’s the freaking World Series. Kipnis turned in another stellar year, continuing to make his contract look like a steal (he made $6M this year, which would have been his last arb year). Kip lost some of his OBP breakout from last year (down to .343 from .372), but made up for it with a huge power spike. He’s also the first left-handed pull hitter we’ve seen from Cleveland, so I imagine we’ll see the shift with him (or not – Maddon hasn’t shifted as much this year). There aren’t any easily exploitable holes in his swing, either: it’s on the staff to just execute their pitches (or attack him with a nuance beyond me). To compound things, he’s a good defender and doesn’t have exploitable platoon splits. Just a very good player. Offensively, he’s a 6 of 10 and defensively he’s a 7 of 10. I give 20% weight to D here and make him a 6.2 of 10.

Javier Baez might be having his coming out party. For the purposes of the WS, I’m just making him the everyday 2B. Defensively, let’s just get this out of the way. He’s the best defensive 2B there is, so I’m giving him a 10 of 10 there. He’ll make a head-scratching error, and he’ll also make 3 other plays that make you go “holy shit”. While it may not have seemed like it, though, he had 450 PA thi syear, and ended up more-or-less league average. .324 was the league pace for 2B wOBA; Baez was at .316. I’m willing to buy some improvement that culminated in a breakout, but he still walked once every 30 plate appearances will striking out 24% of the time. It’s hard to be more than average when you do that. I’m happy to be wrong here, but offensively the numbers have him at  4 of 10 with the bat. That gives him in overall of 5.2 of 10. Make me look stupid, Javy (it isn’t hard).

Cubs: 5.2
Indians: 6.2

Shortstop

In an alternate universe, I grew up 5 hours east of where I did and named my son Lindor. I hate to say it, but his star is a little brighter than that of Addison Russell (no knock on Russell). Lindor has a preternatural ability to put the bat on the ball, and it culminates with a 12.9% strikeout rate this year with an 8.3% walk rate. As a 22 year old, he hit .301/.358/.435 with defensive in the Andrelton Simmons territory. There isn’t anything that he can’t do at least passably:(Addison has more power, but other than that Lindor is at parity or superior); he even hits from both sides of the plate. Offensively, Lindor is a 7 of 10 and defensively, he’s a 10 of 10. I give defense 30% weight for SS, so he’s a 7.9 of 10. 

Russell isn’t a slouch at the plate, but he’s no Lindor. He’s a beast defensively, but I still have him as a slightly worse than Lindor (9 of 10). Russell is a 5 of 10 with the bat (almost exactly the league average at the position at .316 compared to .312), which makes him a 6.2 of 10.

Cubs: 6.2
Indians 7.9

Third Base

Jose Ramirez was a complete revelation this season. While he was always known for having Gwynn-like contact rates, he struggled to do much of anything with the stick (mostly due to weak contact. Then, in a full season, his Soft% went from 19.4 to 14.4%, his BABIP went up from .232 to .333, and his wOBA went from .280 to .355! It was an incredible offensive year from Ramirez, who also chipped in with 22 SB. Another switch-hitter, Ramirez is slightly choosy with his swings, but he almost never misses contact. In fact, on breaking pitches, he misses on only 16% of offerings. That’s really low. You want to stay away from the low, inside pitch as a lefty, as that’s where he’ll do his damage. In either case, it’s safer to work up and toward the right-handed batter’s side of the plate. Offensively, Ramirez was a 7 of 10 this year. Defensively (20% of value for 3B), he was just about the most average there was, so 5 of 10. That makes him a 6.6 of 10 overall.

Of course, then you have Kris Bryant. While Donaldson has a higher wOBA, Bryant wasn’t far behind. He was .292/.385/.554 at the plate, and only a cold last month kept him from a trinity slash. Bryant will strike out, of course, but he’ll also hit the ball a long, long way. Here’s somethign cool: if you lead off a Bryant PA with a strike, he still hits .278/.352/.485. You already know that Bryant is an MVP. He’s a 10 of 10 with the bat, a 9 of 10 (thanks to Machado, Beltre, and Turner), and an overall beast at 9.8 of 10. 

Cubs: 9.8
Indians: 6.6

Left Field

Coco Crisp has been playing a long time. He broke in with the Indians in 2002, and his on one last ride with them. He’s definitely a weak spot for this team. He can hit from both sides of the plate, but not all that well (.231/.302/.397 this year). He had surprising pop this season, but he is overall not the offensive profile you’d want from a LF. Furthermore, he can’t do any damage if you just keep the ball low. Crisp seems exactly like the hitter our team wants to face, over and over again. Offensively, he’s 4 of 10. Defensively, he’s a 3 of 10. I have 10% value in defense here, so I give Crisp a 3.9 of 10.

Willson Contreras is going to be the full-time LF for the purposes of this discussion. He’s been on fire these playoffs, which is nice to see. I definitely haven’t given Contreras his due for an excellent rookie season. He was on pace for 25 HR this year, and a slash of .282/.357/.488 is extremely impressive. Combine that with the ability to be passable (which I didn’t expect) behind the plate and you’ve got a huge stud in the making. They just never end in this organization.

(Aside, apropos of nothing: Jim Croce (who I’m listening to while typing this) was really awesome. Wish he didn’t pass so early, and tragically. That’s all.)

There’s a clear rookie of the year (Corey Seager, who should also finish 2nd or even 1st in MVP voting this season). After that, it’s entirely defensible to but Contreras anywhere from 2nd to 6th. Offensively (at LF, where he’ll play this series), he’s a 7 of 10. Defensively, he’s a 7 of 10. That’s a total of 7 of 10.

Cubs: 7.0
Indians: 3.9

Center Field

Tyler Naquin was a freaking awesome rookie this year. In 365 PA this year, he hit .296/.372/.514 with 14 bombs. He’s not a great defender, but when you hit like that, no one really minds too much. The one thing you can say is that Naquin thinks that strikeouts only count for half: he swings a prodigious amount of the time, and it resulted in a strikeout rate of 30.7% this season. That’s higher than Baez’ career rate.  He’s a pull hitter on anything but a fastball, where he’s often late and goes the other way. In any case, he can put a hurt on the ball. A lefty, he’s got a golf swing. If you pitch him down, you deserve the pain that comes your way. He can’t catch up to anything up; you can even put it over the plate if you just make damn sure you aren’t low. You can imagine a game turning on Naquin’s bat, which is not something you would have imagined at the beginning of this season.

Offensively, his .374 wOBA is good for 8 of 10 (thanks Mike Trout for depressing that for everyone) defensively (20% of worth) he’s a liability (3 of 10). That’s a 7 of 10.

Dexter Fowler, crazily enough, had a lower wOBA then Naquin (albeit by 7 points). They couldn’t have arrived there more differently; Fowler walks a ton more and strikes out a ton less. If you though Fowler’s .350 BABIP was unsustainable, you ain’t seen nothing yet; Naquin had a .411 (!!!!). Fowler’s OBP led the non-Trout division for CF at .393. He’s such a good player that he should get the 2017 “whoa, he got $100 million” contract. He’ll also be the test case in my theory that the Cubs are on the bleeding edge with proprietary defensive data. He was bad in the field before the Cubs and good with them. He’s 8 of 10 with the stick, 6 of 10 with the glove, and 7.6 overall.

Cubs: 7.6
Indians: 7.0

Right Field

Lonnie Chisenhall is another extremely league-average hitter. Batting lefty, he went .286/.328/.439 with the bat (.263/.311/.424 for his career), and didn’t really have any power (especially for a RF). He’s a pull hitter, but not one with any particular teeth. He’s one of the least exciting players in all of baseball, but nonetheless a great candidate for the Marco Scutaro “how the fuck did this guy beat us” award. Offensively 5 of 10, defensively 5 of 10 (20% of value), 5 of 10 overall. Snore.

This might be controversial, but I have Zobrist as the primary RF for this series. I just don’t see how Heyward gets the nod given how high the stakes are and how bad he’s been. Zobrist has little defensive value, but he can play RF well enough to be average there. He’s great on getting on base, and he walked more than he struck out this year (one of my most favorite traits). Don’t sleep on the power, either, his career ISO is .167. Offensively, he’s 8 of 10. Defensively, he’s a 5 of 10. That gives him a 7.4.

Cubs: 7.4
Indians: 5.0

Designated Hitter/Bench

Carlos Santana is a great hitter. He had 99 walks and 99 strikeouts this year (which is so freaking cool, again). A .259/.366/.498 line with 34 HR will get you basically everywhere you want to go in life. He bats well from either side (seriously, the Indians have so many switch hitters and lefties it’s ridiculous), he’s super patient, and he’ll hit the ball everywhere. He doesn’t have a weak spot. Santana can put some hurt into the ball. He’s a 7 of 10 offensively. That’s sort of underselling, considering how good he is. Blame Gary Sanchez and David Ortiz.

The bench for the Indians is ok. Rajai Davis is a fast OF guy. No one else really plays. For a bench, I’d give it a standard 5 of 10.

How the hell do you forecast Kyle Schwarber? He’s going to DH, and I’m inclined not to believe the fairytale story here. Other players need a spring training and sometimes weeks in the regular season. He had 2 games in the AFL. I think I’m giving him a 4 of 10, and that’s only that high because they’ll put Coghlan in there if they need to. The bench is superb, and it gets a 7 of 10.

Cubs: 4.0/7.0
Indians: 7.0/5.0

Cubs overall: 69 of 100
Indians overall: 57.4 of 100

That seems about right to be. The Indians are a good team on the hitting side, but the Cubs are just a class above. Add in the fact that the Cubs are historically great defensively, and you get a clear advantage here.

The caveat, of course, is a) it’s a 7-game series and b) what the hell do I know?

 

Time: 19:08 CT (har har MLB)
TV: FS1
Series Preview
Gameday Thread

LINEUPS (projected)

(103-58, 2-2) Dexter Fowler, CF Kris Bryant, 3B Anthony Rizzo, 1B Ben Zobrist, LF Javier Baez, 2B Jason Heyward, RF Addison Russell, SS David Ross, C Jon Lester, P Lester Stats 202.2 IP 8.75 K/9 2.31 BB/9 2.44 ERA 3.41 FIP 3.47 xFIP

(91-71, 2-2) Kike Hernandez, 2B Justin Turner, 3B Corey Seager, SS Carlos Ruiz, C Howie Kendrick, LF Adrian Gonzalez, 1B Yasiel Puig, RF Joc Pederson, CF Kenta Maeda, P Maeda Stats 175.2 IP 9.17 K/9 2.52 BB/9 3.48 ERA 3.58 FIP 3.70 xFIP

Will the Cubs win? Dodgers. In. 5.

538 Forecast: 59% chance of winning

 

In what was arguably the greatest pitching duel of the past decade, the Giants (led by ubermensch Madison Bumgarner) downed the Mets 3-0 on a Conor Gillaspie HR (as we all saw coming). As a result, the Giants will take their Heart of Gold improbability drive to the 2016 World Series World Tour to Chicago.

Who the hell are these guys?

Catcher

Here’s an area where the Giants are just inarguably great. Buster Posey is extremely good. Posey’s worst career year was 2016, where he still hit .288/.362/.434 with 33 doubles and 14 home runs. This is a catcher who frames well, calls a good game, and his only 5 season removed from a well-deserved MVP season (complete with a batting title and OPS+ black ink). Posey has played the first half of this career on a solid HOF arc, and a gentle curve will surely get him there.

Posey will test the Cubs everywhere. He hits balls in any counts, with any movement, to every field. If there is any tendency, he does go the other way with his line drives – Heyward could get some work in this series. It’s slight, and Posey could challenge all 8 fielders in this series.

Lastly, Posey has a significant platoon advantage. He feasts on lefties, which will matter only in Game 1 and 5 (if it comes to that). I can’t imagine a scenario in which a lefty other than Jon Lester (updated:) or someone who throws 102mph pitches to Buster Posey.

Posey’s backup is a guy named Trevor Brown. He is something approaching Albert Suarez’ personal catcher, so I don’t know if he’ll get much run in the playoffs (especially with the built-in off days). He’s a perfectly serviceable backup that has a little pop but poor offensive numbers in general.

First Base

I was firmly on the Brandon Belt Bandwagon when he came into the league. He hasn’t lived up to the Top 15 offensive profile I had envisioned, but he’s firmly in the second-tier of offense-first 1B. This year was his best yet, with an incredible .394 OBP (and 132 OPS+ overall). He only had 17 HR (more of a doubles guy), but he will hurt you consistently. Belt is a complete hitter, with no real splits to mention (in essence, he has a slight reverse-split) and good batted-ball placement despite his being a lefty masher. Sure, he’ll wear Rizzo out in this series, but he certainly puts the ball everywhere.

You want to work Belt high in the zone. It’s where he’s most vulnerable, and you can get him to swing-and-miss if you’re up there. The trade-off is that while he whiffs on those, he knows it; he can lay off the high heat and take his walks. Hendricks and Lester have the control to work him there, and I think they could have success against Belt. Arrieta (who works down and relies on run) might have a harder time.

Second Base

Joe Panik has had an awful year, though he did walk more than he struck out. He’s a human GIDP machine that the Cubs should attack without mercy. Panik, like everyone on this team, does work the whole diamond. Just keep it low and slow, and Panik will get himself out more often than not.

Short Aside about “Hitting to All Fields”

It is probably obvious that unless you are Jim Thome or Ryan Howard, every hitter “hits to all fields.” I only mean that they distribute their hits even more evenly than the average hitter from that side of the plate. I envision the diamond in 6 zones: LOF, COF, ROF, LIF, CIF, RIF. A pull hitter from the left side will have something like 10/15/30/5/10/30. A “to all fields guy” will have something like 13/18/22/10/15/22. It might be 1 or 2 extra/fewer balls to a certain defender in a 5 games series. That is to say, don’t worry about it all that much.

Shortstop

Brandon Crawford is sort of the 30th percentile projection of Addison Russell. Crawford is an excellent defender at short, and he’s a positive if infrequent contributor with the bat. He walks a fair amount, doesn’t strike out all that often, and can mash for homers (21 last year) but is more often a “to-the-wall” type (11 triples this year). San Francisco is not his ideal park – in Candlestick he has “warning track power.”

Crawford is a defensive savant, and he’d be playable even if he hit like Kozma from the position (he’d be a below-average player, but playable). I say this only to warn you that he might make some frustratingly good plays during this series, so hopefully you aren’t surprised (aside: I was going to say “don’t be surprised”, but that would guarantee a “don’t tell me what to do” comment).

Crawford has no real split, but DOES pull the ball from the left side with fair regularity. He could keep Rizzo busy.

Third Base

Eduardo Nunez is a guy that has more tooth in his bat than you might expect. Hyper-aggressive at the plate, he puts the ball in play and hopes to beat it out with his speed – his .314 BABIP this year and last seem to indicate he can do that. He’s also aggressive on the basepaths, attempting 50 SB this year (and succeeding 80% of the time). You just freaking know he’s bunting against Lester in Game 1. Vegas won’t even take odds on that.

You could see Nunez pop up all over the field in this series – he can play serviceable defense just about anywhere on the diamond.

 

Left Field

Today in reminders that you are old: Angel Pagan is 34 years old. That’s incredible to me; if you asked me what his age was before I looked it up, I’d have said 30, 31 at the oldest. Pagan is a 12 year veteran that seems like he was on the Cubs when Theo got here but definitely wasn’t. He’s bounced back from a very poor 2015 (injuries he played through), and is your prototypical singles-only left fielder.

I kid, but that’s Pagan’s profile. He’s never slugged over .440 (5 years ago), and his 12 HR this year is a career high. He’s quite patient at the plate and takes his walks, and he can put the ball anywhere he likes. I actually like Pagan a lot, because he works counts and goes the other way routinely.  He’s a switch hitter with no real preference (slightly lefty), and his slightly golfy swing allows him to torch balls down in the zone while allowing you to get him out with high heat.

Center Field

Take out the bit about being a switch-hitter (Span is a lefty), and basically everything about Pagan applies to Denard Span. He doesn’t hit a lot of HR (11 is the career high), he gets lots of singles, he’s not great in the field but he won’t burn you, he doesn’t strikeout and can take a walk, and he sprays the ball everywhere. They’ll even work Span the same way they’ll work Pagan, with lots of high cheese.

Right Field

Hunter Pence is a first ballot Hall of Very Good-er. Here are his season OPS+, by year:

129
105
116
112
139
103
133
121
119
115

It’s sort of uncanny. He is a career .284/.339/.470, and is pretty consistently around those numbers each and every year. He’s just a very solid hitter.

Pence will strikeout if you give him the chance, and he likes to be a little more aggressive than the average guy. He’s a consistent 25 HR guy, though he missed some time this year (2nd year in a row with missed time) so he didn’t get there this year. If you can get him to swing at the pitch down and away (and the better pitchers can and will do that), he’ll get himself out most of the time. He’s also a step slower than he used to be.

Backups

Kelby Tomlinson has extreme splits, so he’ll almost certainly start Game 1 so he can face Jon Lester. He’s probably first off the bench against any lefty in this series.

Conor Gillaspie never has to buy a drink in San Francisco for the rest of his life, after depositing a Jeurys Familia pitch into the stands for a 3-run bomb in the Wild Card game. Gillaspie is going to wilt against lefties (to the extent that he might not start tonight’s game), but is pretty solid against right-handers. He’ll swing early and often, and is another guy that pulls the ball. He’d be shiftable if he was more dangerous, but I imagine the Cubs will play him straight up.

It’s the basic boilerplate advice, but Gillaspie is best attacked down and away (which is where pitchers generally work him). Old Gil’s skillset seems to be something none of the Cubs’ pitchers should have trouble with, but all it takes is one swing from anybody, as Conor proved in the WC.

“Weekend at” Gorkys Hernandez and Andres Blanco are just fungible OF backups that have don’t really have redeeming qualities at this point. We want to see these players in the game.

Summary

This lineup just isn’t that threatening. I think a lot of people get caught up in the legend of Madison Bumgarner, and see some fairly even pitching matchups (especially starters). To some extent, that’s true. I might well prefer Bumgarner twice (and believe me, if there are 5 games, MadBum is pitching significant innings in 2 or even 3), Cueto twice, and Samardzija to Lester twice, Hendricks, Arrieta, and Lackey. The thing is, the offenses just aren’t comparable. The Giants are just an average MLB squad with the bat, and the Cubs are the best in the National League. When you look at each facet of the game, you can’t reasonably come away with any other conclusion that the Cubs should be favored in this series. I have the Cubs in 4.