Author: Obstructed View Staff

Miscellaneous Thoughts from the Pelicans last home game

A once-every-three-years guest post by BVS.

Sunday night was the last home game of the year at TicketReturn Field, home of the Cubs A+ farm team. The Pelicans divebombed the Lynchburg Hillcats (CLE) 8-3 to even the Mills Cup series at 1-1.  I don’t know why it’s called the Mills Cup, and am too lazy to look, but that’s the Carolina League Championship. They lost game one 4-3 in the 12th inning so this was a nice rebound.  They head to Lynchburg to resume the series Tues, Wed, and Thurs if needed.

I posted a few updates in the game thread comments during the game the other night. Here are some additional thoughts in a modified 3-up, 3-down format.

Addisons*

Woo-hoo. Eloy Jimenez was promoted to A+ and the Pelicans discovered offense. Eloy debuted with a very serviceable game at DH. 1-3 with two walks.  Run scoring ground out to tie game in 1st. Single in 3rd with no one on. Walks in 5th and 7th innings. Long fly out in 8th with 2 men on and 2 runs already in. No K’s. My amateur eye said he knows what he’s doing. Lynchburg wasn’t pitching to him. Jimenez replaced Yasiel Balaguert, the Pelicans leader in HR and RBI. Balaguert pulled his hamstring beating out an infield single in Friday’s Division series win.

David Bote was 2-4 with 3 rbi after going 4-5 Saturday night. This kid (age 23) played 12 games in Iowa and a few games in Tennessee. He had a strange year in terms of assignments: started with Myrtle Beach, then on DL for a month in April-May, then activated to Iowa for 2 weeks, then to Myrtle Beach for 3 days, then to Tennessee for 2 weeks in late June and finally back to MB for the rest of the season. I don’t recall seeing him on any major prospect lists, but he was the Cubs player of the month for August (.367/.439/.541).

Bullpen.  The starters for the Pelicans have been so-so all year. Trevor Clifton, Zach Hedges, and Erik Leal have been pretty good, 1.1-1.2-WHIP starters, but Jake Stinnett, Johnathan Martinez, and Jeremy Null have not been good. 84K, 87 BB+H, 84.2 IP, 1.91 ERA since Aug 19 (18 games).  Tonight the pen pitched 5 innings, of 1-run ball with 7 Ks.

Pelican’s Grounds Crew.  The 6:05 start was delayed 1:18 due to a thunderstorm. But the field didn’t have any puddles once the tarp was off.  Also the OF grass looked much better than the post-concert OF grass in Wrigley.

Pelican’s Grounds Keeper.  The base path to first must be dead level. Jesse Hodges dropped a bunt with no out and a man on 2nd in the 8th inning.  The ball hit the ground about 3 inches inside the foul line and it rolled about 60 feet staying 3 inches inside the line.  The Pelican’s favorite offensive strategy is bunting, so the grounds keeper is pitching in to help the team. Hodges is a slick fielding 3B with a .512 OPS who is probably headed to great career coaching high school.

Minor league baseball. Oh so fun! I’ve lived in Single A territory most of my adult life and so I’ve seen a lot of crazy stuff. No lead is safe.  No play is routine. Also I love how you can hear every word when the home plate ump warns the visiting team to shuts their traps after a close call at first. The crowd responded with an “Ooooo” just like junior high. LOL.

The Pelican’s record in the 2nd half was 46-23, the best half-season record in the league in 10 years. The Cubs extended their agreement to 2020 a few weeks ago. Hooray!

Lillibridges*

Buddy Bailey Bunt-a-thon. I guess the Pelican’s manager must have gone to the Dusty Baker college of offense. This team bunts at least 4-5 times a game.  In fact, every team might as well play their 3B in if there is a man on first. I can’t see giving up an out to put a guy on second when the best OBP in the bottom of the order is .297 and none of those guys are fast. Ugh. Worked for Hodges tonight, but that’s the exception rather than the rule. So many times I’ve seen the lead off guy get on, sac bunt to advance to second, then K, K or grounder, K. I guess putting the ball in play is better than a strike out, particularly in A-ball where errant throws are common, but how about teaching a batter how to get a hit?

Jeremy Null.  No sooner did I comment he was fire, then he started getting smoked. He was shaky in the first, but settled down in the second and third, only to give up hard contact to 5 of 6 batters in the fourth. He was selected as the best late-round draft pick for 2014 by Baseball America. He has exited the game when his team was ahead only 8 of 22 times this year.

Consistent strike zone.  I feel for the batters. The strike zone is a moving target. But the umps are minor leaguers too.

Play-off crowds and schedules.  About 1840 people at the game tonight, which I think counted a lot of tickets that were sold to no-shows.  About 1780 last night.  The Pelicans average around 3000.  Pretty quiet when 2/3 of the stadium is empty.  But the division series ended at about 10:15 p.m. Friday night, so you really had to pay attention to know that Pelicans won Friday and would therefore play at home Saturday and Sunday.  And of course Sunday is a school night, so a 3-hour game (if it’s quick) with a 6:00 p.m. start makes it tough to bring younger kids. (My 4th grader stayed home Sunday, but went Saturday.)

Jason McLeod’s

Three scouts at the game tonight.  One I recognized so I assume he’s a Cubs internal scout. Didn’t recognize the others but they were younger than the scouts who were at the games in late July.

*I know I can pick higher profile MVP-candidate-type players for the “Ups” but it’s my column, and I love how Russell plays. Plus Addison starts with A.  Lillibridge?  Remember him? One of my previous guest columns mentioned him, so I thought I’d be consistent.

Cubs @ Cardinals (4-18-16)

Thanks to millertime for the game thread. Myles is on the DL with a dislocated shoulder. 

How to Watch

7:09 PM CT
TV: ESPN, WPWR
Radio: 670 the Score 

Cardinals Lineup

Carpenter 3B
Hazelbaker CF
Holliday LF
Moss 1B
Piscotty RF
Molina C
Wong 2B
Diaz SS
Leake P

Cubs Lineup

Fowler CF
Heyward RF
Zobrist 2B
Rizzo 1B
Bryant 3B
Montero C
Soler LF
Russell SS
Lackey P 

What to Watch

In my opinion, Leake is the type of pitcher who could give the Cubs the most trouble when he’s on.  He throws strikes at an above average rate, and gets ground balls at an above average rate.  However, he doesn’t get too many K’s, and the Cubs do a lot of damage when they put the ball in play.

Lackey and Heyward are making their return to St. Louis.  I’m sure some of the classy fans will clap, and the jerk fans will boo.  Hopefully Lackey keeps the ball down.

Will the Cubs Win?

They’ve done it a bunch so far, so why not.

Is there any coal in the Cubs hot stove?

This is a guest post by SVB.

Both Myles and dmick have noted some constraints in their ability to write recently, so I’m writing in an attempt to give Myles and dmick a break, as well as to prevent another unloadable 200+ comment thread from developing. Don’t worry, I won’t become the Jay Leno (or even the David Brenner) of OV- guest writers. So some random thoughts…

There is a lot of angst in the Cublogville about a lack of activity this winter. One thing that Theo has changed about the culture of the Cubs front office and biz-ops is that there is a much tighter reign on leaks. Having lived through the endless Ryan Dempster sagas, we should be thankful for that, even as we beg and plead like poor little Oliver for just a little more. Bruce Miles has also noted that the front office is much more tight-lipped than before. I think it’s usually a good strategy not to show your hand to the others around the table. My Grandma used to say “Breast your cards,” and boy-o, Theo is good at that. I fully expect that by February some of the Cubs’ rejected offers will trickle out. Theo probably improves their bargaining power by controlling leaks, but it costs Theo some in public opinion because the lack of news makes it seem like the Cubs aren’t trying.

The Cubs have been linked to the Blue Jays in Jeff Samardzija rumors. Remember the Blue Jays made a big splash last year and picked up the better half of the Marlins, then finished the season with about 74 wins. Ick. Seems they need a starter and they need to win.

The Jays are rumored to be willing to trade Colby Rasmus. Rasmus had some decent numbers last year and plays a position the Cubs need—Outfield. (Note how I controlled myself and didn’t say “Major Leaguer” there.) Imagine a trade that brings back Rasmus, one of Toronto’s top pitching prospects (Aaron Sanchez or Marcus Stroman) and maybe some A-ball pitcher or OF. That might look good for the Cubs, but it doesn’t make sense to me. I assume Toronto will hang on to Stroman because he seems ready to be in the bigs this year. Why trade a guy that would contribute by June 1? Sanchez could be ready by September, which doesn’t help Toronto this year, but would fit in the Cubs timeline. Samardzija would fit Toronto’s desire to have some control over a player instead of being a rental. But the kicker is Rasmus doesn’t seem to make sense for the Cubs. Yes, he fills a need, but he’s a free agent after this year. He could be flipped if he produces, but at this point it seems the Cubs should be looking for multi-year contributors in return instead of just pretending to be the Royals. Only Aaron Sanchez seems to fill the multi-year presence description. Is that enough? Toronto is also rumored to be willing to trade Adam Lind. He has no role on the Cubs. However, Toronto’s farm is stacked with pitchers, so maybe there is a deal to be made.

The Dodgers might trade Matt Kemp. They’ll eat salary to get a good player. I don’t really see the trade match for the Cubs there, since the Dodgers have pitching. But maybe if the Cubs take on most of the salary, the Dodgers expectation of quality in return would drop some. Not to Darwin Barney levels though. Still, it’s fun to imagine Kemp in Wrigley, if he’s healthy. The Dodgers could put Shark in a rotation of Kershaw, Ryu, Greinke, and Beckett, with Haren and Billingsley on the mend. Too bad we can’t do a Samardzija for Grudzielanek trade.

Continuing to dream, an OF with Kemp and Choo in it would look pretty productive. I like Choo’s ability to take a walk. He’s still out there, let’s hope the Cubs are in on him as a building block.

Thursday is the Rule 5 draft. The Cubs don’t have a pick. Why? Because of Lendy Castillo: The gift that keeps on giving. Like herpes. The Phillies grieved his mystery illness and won, so they get the Cubs’ pick. No big deal in the scheme of things, but I’m pretty sure that Castillo had more runs in his stat line in the Arizona Fall League than Baez and Almora together. Wonder who the Cubs will lose. The farm has some depth for a change, so I bet we lose at least 2 players. Maybe this was noted at OV before, but I was too busy reading every word for references to BBQ to notice.

In fact, I’m hungry now, so I’ll stop. Feel free to ignore the above and comment about other relevant Cubs stuff below, like why it makes no sense that a two-loss college football team that has one of its losses to Utah is ranked higher than the Buckeyes.

Why the Cubs Can’t Wait

I'm starting to hear whispers that the Cubs are already going to punt on 2014. I really, really don't get it.

Let's rewind the clocks to 2011, when Theo Epstein was hired. He inherited a really poor team and a really poor farm system. There was no chance that the Cubs were going to be good in 2012, and no realistic chance they were going to be great in 2013 either (no prospects were even close to producing except Brett Jackson and Andrew Cashner – Jackson profiled as an average CF and Cashner had a #2 ceiling and multiple arm surgery floor, with the latter much more likely than than former). It made sense to turn Cashner into Rizzo, punt the season, and collect some prospects. The 2012 season netted quite the haul – Albert Almora is a consensus Top 40 guy in baseball (and usually much higher), Pierce Johnson and Paul Blackburn are both intriguing arms (and Johnson is the unspoken Top Prospect in all of this. He's a Top 100 talent who has a great chance to see time in the rotation as soon as this September). There are some pet prospect-types in the lower rounds too (Stephen Bruno, Chadd Krist, Bijan Rademacher, Tyler Bremer). The Cubs traded Dempster for Kyle Hendricks (very good in minors so far) and Christian Villanueva, who is close to ready at 3B and could be flipped for something this off-season, and Paul Maholm for Arodys Vizcaino (who maybe someday will even pitch again!). While 2012 was a huge disappointment record-wise, it was a pretty large success with respect to turning around the farm and getting assets for expiring contracts. 

In the 2012 offseason, the Cubs made a series of moves that seemed to indicate there was a chance for surprise contention. They signed Kyuji Fujikawa and Nate Schierholtz. They inked Scott Hairston and Dioner Navarro, too. These are all low-risk, low-upside moves that can be exchanged for marginal assets if the team doesn't work out. However, they also "signed" Anibal Sanchez, and really actually did sign Edwin Jackson (4 years, $52 million). Committing 13 million a year to ages 29-32 does say something about your willingness to go for it in relatively short order. For all the talk about getting free agents when they come available, that only makes sense if their peak relatively somewhat coincides with your expected peak. I think it's not only reasonable, but very very likely that the Jackson signing was more about 2014 than 2013 (and they put just enough pieces out there to even dream on 2013). 

We all know what happened with Castro/Barney/Shark/Rizzo last season. They all either stayed in place or took a step backwards (sometimes several steps backwards). It was evident early that there were 3 juggernauts in the division, and even fringey competition was very unlikely. The Cubs did a phenomenal job in cashing in their chips for talent after that. They spun Feldman (another piece custom-made for a 2013 run) for Arrieta and Strop. I'm not sold on Arrieta being anything more than an average swingman going forward, but Strop can definitely be a nice piece in a major league bullpen for the next half of a decade. They spun Hairston for Ivan Pineyro, who impressed over 24 starts in A and A+ this year. Pineyro doesn't project to be anything other than maybe a longman or swingman in the majors, but he's not an NP and the book isn't written. They turned Soriano into some salary relief AND Corey Black, and actual prospect who probably ends up in the bullpen sometime, but has the swing-and-miss ability that seems to get more and more critical in the MLB today. Most importantly, they took half-a-season of an incredibly fragile, fairly overrated pitcher, and turned him into a haul at least vaguely resembling the one they themselves spent to get him 2.5 years prior. There are serious doubts to C.J. Edwards' size and ability to throw consistently, but he's played himself from the 48th round to a legitimate conversation piece somewhere in the Top 150 or so. Mike Olt is a season removed from being a Top 40 guy, and one that at least has a reason to point to for his 2013 struggles (though they aren't exactly encouraging ones). Justin Grimm safely profiles as a #4 or #5 starter in the NL, probably this year. Neil Ramirez has a #3 ceiling, though the floor is very low. He could contribute in 2015. They also drafted Kris Bryant, who could maybe start at 3B right now and put out a better offensive performance than Darwin Barney. 

With all this in mind, let's look at 2013 the same way the Cubs looked at 2012. They have one more starter this year (Shark/Wood/Jackson) than they did going into the 2012 offseason (Shark/Garza/maybe Wood?). What's more, the free agent market is actually flush with mid-card rotational types (including that very same Garza that you had in 2012!). FA are more and more difficult to find, but Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Garza, Dan Haren, Scott Kazmir, Paul Maholm…there are plenty of credible candidates out there, and they only cost money (a select few cost a 2nd rounder, which is no huge issue). Even if the Cubs don't sign 2 of these guys, they have credible candidates (about 8-10 of them) for those last two spots. One of them will keep the seat warm for Pierce Johnson and/or C.J. Edwards. You have an infield, not only for this year, but for the foreseeable future (in fact, you have an extreme logjam in the infield coming extremely quickly. Olt/Villanueva/Bryant could all force Valbuena to 2B…where Watkins and Alcantara could force Barney to SS…where Castro plays, and is about to be forced to 2B or 3B by Baez. Every person I mentioned has a even-money or better chance at playing in Chicago next year (or at least deserving it.)) 

You have to operate under the assumption that your good, young players (like Castro and Rizzo) are going to improve. If you do so, you really aren't that far away. Honestly, you could end 2014 with the following dream lineup:

C: Castillo
1B: Rizzo
2B: Baez
SS: Castro
3B: Bryant
LF: An offensive black hole this FO didn't address (Junior Lake's projected 91 wRC+ may take a step forward and wrangle this job)
CF: An offensive mediocrity this FO didn't address (Ryan Sweeney's projected 99 wRC+)
RF: An offensive black hole this FO didn't address (Nate Schierholtz)

UTIL: Logan Watkins
UTIL: Darwin Barney
UTIL: Luis Valbuena
UTIL: Brian Bogusevic
C2: Who Givesashit

#1: Jeff Samardzija
#2: Travis Wood
#3: Edwin Jackson
#4: Pierce Johnson
#5: Replacement-level guy this FO didn't address (let's say Justin Grimm)

The saying goes that hell is 70-79 wins. Unfortunately, if you stay at 65 wins in 2014, you can't reasonably expect to gain 20 wins in 2015. Those turnarounds don't happen. Even if that plan made sense, what happens if Baez hits .190/.230/.360 with 35% K rate? Soler never fully recovers from his tibia fracture and is injured and ultimately ineffective? Bryant doesn't learn to hit a breaking ball and washes out at AAA? Almora walks 3% of his MLB appearances and becomes a 4th OF? Prospects are just that; prospective members of a future team. It's a near-certainty that one of those 4 never plays a full-season for a MLB team as a starter. If we count ourselves lucky, 3 of them will make the majors in some normal capacity, and 2 of them will be league-average or better. Since we don't know which one's it'll be, it's foolish to delay being an actual team until we find out which ones it is. 

It isn't like the top free agents are blocking anyone, either. The three top targets this offseason are Choo, Ellsbury, and Tanaka. There isn't a single guy that plays outfield for the Cubs organization from AAA to MLB that I'd sorely miss if they disappeared from the organization tomorrow. Lake could be something, but he's probably a utility guy. Sweeney's a 4th OF that'll start for us. Schierholtz is a nifty platoon, but he really came to Earth at the end of the season and still had a .301 OBP last season). Soler and Almora are 2015 guys at the earliest, and even if they both came, you could move Ellsbury or Choo around with ease. Also, if Masahiro Tanaka bumps Grimm to the bullpen (where some think he belongs anyway, though I'm not sure I'm one of them), that's a situation I can surely live with. 

Simply put, waiting until next season for you to try to contend just means you'll wait until the NEXT year when you get there. No thanks. If this is what Theo and Jed plan to do, it's going to be pretty difficult to follow this team next year. 

 

 

 

Top Free Agents of 2013 Offseason

I thought it might be too early to write the story, but seeing as Tim Linecum got a 2/35 deal, clearly the offseason is closer than I thought. 

First, a short breakdown of the Freak deal.

Lincecum was a back-to-back Cy winner in 08 and 09, but those days are behind him. In his place, he has had an ERA+ of 114, 127, 68, and 76. Big Time Timmy Jim was worth 0 WARP in 2012, 0.6 WARP in 2013 and was part of the Starlin Castro School of Vastly Underperforming BP's 10% prediction. He's lost velo from this fastball, going from 93.11 mph on the 4seam in 2011 down to 90.9 this year. However, his slidepiece also lost the same velocity (all of his pitches did save the splitter), so he's still got roughly the same speed change on his off-speed stuff. He isn't getting as many swings and misses with his fastball but he's making them up in slider whiffs.

If I had to project Lincecum's WARP for the next 2 years, I'd be hard pressed to go more than 2.5 and 2 in the next 2 seasons. There's still potential there (especially if the velo returns), but there's also a chance Lincecum gives you 170 replacement-level innings of worse. If a win is worth 6 million this year (and 6.3 next year), that's 15/12.6, or 2/27.5. That was sort of what I expected (I was hoping that the Cubs would throw him a 2/25 deal or so), so this is a mild surprise. Perhaps this is the market now, I don't know. 

Now that Lincecum is off the market, the market for SP shrinks fairly considerably. Let's look at each position to see who is available.

Catcher

1. Brian McCann
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
3. Dioner Navarro

Honorable Mention: A.J. Pierzynski, Geovany Soto, Taylor Teagarden

Brian McCann is going to cost too much to be a real consideration for the Cubs. I imagine Salty will eventually be priced out of the Cubs' range as well. I was very happy with Navarro this season, but in all likelihood you'll have to pay him more to receive less. That's not something I want to get in the habit of doing.

A.J. Pierzynski would be an ideal platoon-mate to Castillo, but he'll likely make too much money and get an opportunity to play 110 games somewhere else. I think Geovany Soto is a very reasonable choice, and if he costs $2-3 million, I'd say go for it. Taylor Teagarden is mentioned only because he's a young former top prospect, and seems like ideal depth at AAA if you need it. 

First Base

1. Mike Napoli
2. Kendrys Morales
3. Corey Hart

Honorable Mentions: Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis, James Loney

I'd be shocked if Napoli didn't re-sign with the Red Sox, and likewise with Morales and the Mariners. For all intents and purposes, Corey Hart is the best available 1B, and that's saying something considering he missed the entire year with an injury. He has 30 HR power (which is no small feat these days) and the ability to at least pretend like he can take a walk. He isn't going to make a ton of bank this season, but a 1-year prove it contract is quite likely (and probably with the Brewers). Morneau is a shell of his former self, and his power days are sadly behind him. Still, he can crush righties which counts for something. Kevin Youkilis used to be the Greek God of Walks; now, he's lucky if he's considered a normal healthy human. James Loney was surprisingly valuable last season, but he was hot garbage the 2 years prior, and even in this revelatory season he only hit 13 HR and OPS'ed .778.

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano
2. Omar Infante
3. Kelly Johnson

Honorable Mention: nope

Cano is going to make more than the Astros in AAV, almost certainly. I can see 8/184, but even that is probably much too low, which seems incredible. Omar Infante is going to be well paid in FA, and he should. Infante has quietly put up WARPs of 2.4, 4.0, 2.2, and 2.7 the past 4 years. He'll be 32 next year, but he can make 3/30 relatively easy this offseason. Part of that is the dearth of 2B available in this league, but Infante can really provide a team with some value (as long as the decline is a hill, not a cliff). Kelly Johnson is the same age, but not the same player. He's an average second baseman, which is a valuable trait. I doubt he'll be average much longer, though; he's someone who can provide value this year, and maybe next. He makes sense for the Cubs for that reason. If you could get Kelly Johnson for this year as a holdover for the future, that would signal to me that the Cubs are serious about getting good in 2014. We'll see what the price is. 

Shortstop

1. Jhonny Peralta
2. Nope!

Ok, there is Stephen Drew. He'll probably re-sign with the Red Sox, and provide them with a .250/.310/.410 sort of line with overrated (but still very good) defense. After that, it's a wasteland. Seriously, here's the list:

Robert Andino (30)

Clint Barmes (35)

Willie Bloomquist (36)

Jamey Carroll (40)

Alexi Casilla (29)

Stephen Drew (31)

Yunel Escobar (31) – $5MM club option

Rafael Furcal (36)

Alex Gonzalez (36)

Nick Green (35)

Cesar Izturis (34)

Derek Jeter (40) – $8MM+ player option with a $3MM buyout

John McDonald (39)

Jhonny Peralta (32)

Brendan Ryan (32)

Jhonny Peralta is the only real get here, and even he is coming back from a 50-game suspension. If we look at the Melky Cabrera situation, I'd assume that Peralta gets something relatively similar (I don't know what the PED penalty is). Does 3/27 sound reasonable? Really, I have no clue what Peralta will get, and he's probably going to get a foolish-looking deal.

Third Base

1. Juan Uribe
2. Michael Young
3. Eric Chavez

Honorable Mentions: No.

This is quite the dicey list. Uribe was a revelation this year, putting up 4.1 WARP (he's actually had 3 seasons with a WARP above 3 in his career), with a .278/.331/.438 in 426 PA. Still, he's 35 next year, and can't really be relied on to start at 3B. Michael Young gets shit on for hitting an empty .300 every year, and I get it. Still, he's a guy that isn't going to kill you and is apparently great in the clubhouse. I'm not sure that translates to actual wins (hint: probably not), but he's a guy that can play against lefties and give you some production, and he can man the corners without being a complete embarassment. Eric Chavez is actually a useful piece, but he's injury-prone. He can't hit lefties but mashes righties; unfortunately, he's too old and brittle to play there every day, so he doesn't even make for the ideal platoon man. He fits in a time-share with a rookie that doesn't have a noticeable L/R split and could learn from a proven veteran, which is almost the definition of the Cubs in 2014. He makes a ton of sense for that reason (though he and Valbuena are both lefties. In this scenario, Baez is called up for 3B relatively soon, and Valbuena plays 2B until Alcantara/Watkins force him into the supersub role). He made 3 million for one year last season. That's what I'd offer him this year (though honestly, we're getting into a glut in the infield, perhaps sooner rather than later).

Left Field

1. Mike Morse
2. Raul Ibanez
3. Delmon Young

Slim pickings to be sure. Mike Morse was horrific last year, but I'm chalking it up to a combination of a quad injury and a park that almost couldn't be worse for his skillset. However, even if I'm being charitable, he's still a 1.5 to 2 win player at a corner outfield, one whose game is completely reliant on RH power. He'll likely take a 1-year "prove it" deal, to see if he can be the guy he was in 2011. Honestly, there are worse people to send out there for the Cubs, who aren't nearly as stacked in the outfield as they are on the infield. Raul Ibanez had a great season, but will be 43 next season. He's a terrible fielder who doesn't take walks, so he'll be the DH for… let's say…the Royals next year. 

Center Field

1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Shin-Soo Choo
3. Curtis Granderson*

The list of CFs available is short and sweet. Granderson will probably get a QA (around 14 million), and he'll probably take it in the hopes of rebuilding some value. If he doesn't, there are worse bounce-back candidates to sign. He doesn't make sense for the Cubs because he's 33 and you don't need his declining bat to coincide with your ascension. Ellsbury continues to be priced out of a reasonable market for the Cubs; I could see 6 and maybe 100 but he's probably making more than that (if Pence gets 5/90, Ellsbury could at LEAST get that). Shin-Soo Choo will make less than Jacoby, but I think I'd take him straight-up (which appears to be the minority opinion around here). I've made no attempt to hide my man-crush for the Busan Bomber; he probably doesn't have a future at CF, but even at RF his bat more than plays. I'd expect 15 bombs and 90 walks a year, and a line of .280/.390/.440 fits more-or-less perfectly at the top of a lineup that figures to have more than it's share of power in the near and long-term future. Choo has enough speed to score from first on doubles, and the Cubs hit the 6th most doubles in baseball last year. I have Choo at 3.5/3.0/2.5/2.0/1.5/1.5 WAR in the next 6 years (or thereabouts). That'd make him worth (6 mill a win, 5% inflation) $92.8 million over the next 6 years, or $81.3 over the next 5. Does 5/81 get it done with Choo? We'll have to see, but I suspect not. I hope the Cubs consider it strongly, though. For completeness sake, I have Ellsbury at 3.5/3.5/3.0/2.5/2.0/1.5, or 6/$106.3 mil to 5/$94.8 mil.

One note; I've started to go away from factoring in the 10% discount for longer contracts. It doesn't seem like it happens any more. I'd love to see some research on it. 

Right Field

1. Carlos Beltran
2. Nelson Cruz*
3. Marlon Byrd

Nelson Cruz could also get a QA and he could very likely accept it. Beltran is nearing the twilight of a career that is very close to landing him in the hall of fame. Beltran never received an MVP (and in fact never reached higher than 4th in voting), but he's had a remarkable career. He had 6 seasons with an OPS+ above 130, and another 4 above 120. In 49 playoff games, he has a .335/.450/.699 slash line. He's played in 8 all-star games and has 67.5 bWAR (60.1 WARP). Black and Gray Ink aren't big fans of his, but his Hall of Fame monitor would indicate he'll get in, and his JAWS is 8th all time among CF (and there are 18 CF in the Hall right now, so he'd be around average for the position). All that being said, he'll be 37 next year and he's always been injury prone. He made $13 million last year, and he'll probably make close to that on a 1-year pact this year. He probably is worth 2 to 3 wins next year, depending on how much he actually plays. Nelson Cruz is old than he seems (33 next season), and he's coming off a 50-game suspension. He was on pace for around 38 HR last season, which is no small feat in today's MLB. That's probably behind him, but his left thigh issues might not be; combine that with his advanced age and likely draft pick loss and it's hard to see someone giving him enough to convince him not to take the qualifying $14 million. Marlon Byrd had a renaissance last season; it's not often that a player hits more HR at 35 than any other year. He'll be 36 next season, which should limit his contracts to being short and sweet.

Starting Pitcher

1. Masahiro Tanaka
2. Ervin Santana
3. Hiroki Kuroda
4. Matt Garza
5. Ubaldo Jimenez*
6. Phil Hughes

Honorable Mention: A.J. Burnett, Ricky Nolasco, Bartolo Colon, Bronson Arroyo

Tanaka is not likely going to be as good as Yu Darvish and profiles as more of a #2 or #3 type. That being said, he'll make more in posting and contract than Darvish did; I expect the winning post to exceed 60 million, and probably over 70. Once you win the post, you get to pay Tanaka 6 years and probably 66 million dollars, so you're looking to spend around $140 million for 6 years of pitcher. That being said, that's basically the price to play in this FA market. If I'm the Cubs (and I have money to spend), I'm more than happy to lay down ~130 for 6 years of a pitcher if I think that's the only way I can get premium talent. A ballpark estimation of Tanaka's worth; 2.5/3.0/3.5/3.5/3.0/3.0, or 6/$126.2 million.

What sort of hellscape have we entered where Ervin Santana is the 2nd best FA available? He's pretty divisive as well; bWAR has Santana at 2.8, but BP has Ervin at 0.9 WARP (and a 4.62 FRA to boot). I don't want anything to do with him, honestly. Kuroda broke down hard at the end of this season, is 39 next year, and likely won't play anywhere besides NY or Japan. Kuroda is one of my favorite pitchers but I don't see him being in the Cubs plans for next season. It's rare that a player re-signs with the team that traded him, and I don't think Garza is going to be any different. The Cubs will be in on him (like they are with everyone), but he probably is going to seek more than the Cubs will want to give him. He's not worth anything more than the Edwin Jackson deal to me (which I'd sign Garza to), so we'll see if he makes more than that. Ubaldo is another guy who probably gets a QA that makes him just unattractive enough to stay in Cleveland. Hughes might be better suited to a relief role; he's nothing but a back-end rotation guy at best otherwise. 

Relief Pitcher

Who knows? There's a hundred of them and they are all volatile.

My Picks for FA

Since there's no way I can really predict what the Cubs will do with their funds, I'm just going to bet on what I hope they do. 

I'd try to sign Eric Chavez ($3 million) to play the corner infield spots. He's cheap, he kills righties (which Luis Valbuena doesn't do), and he can easily fade into the background when the prospects come up (and he'll want to anyways, he can't play every day and we won't expect him to). He's a 1-year deal, so you don't have to worry about overcommitment. I'd also sign Geovany Soto ($3 million) to back up Castillo, if he'd take it. I wouldn't commit any more money to the position than that.

The Cubs only have around $30 million to play with, so they can't realistically be in on Tanaka AND Choo. As much as I love Choo, I'd much rather them sign the impact pitcher, who is also younger than Choo by half a decade. So, I'd put my last chips on the table to sign Masahiro Tanaka ($66.6 million post, $66.6 million/6 years contract, $22.2 million/year). I'll use the last couple million on Scott Baker ($2.8 million split contract) again, because why not?

I also think they'll be in on Aledmis Diaz. I'm not taking that into payroll consideration here. 

Eric Chavez (10)
Geovany Soto (10)
Scott Baker (10)
Masahiro Tanaka (10)
Aledmis Diaz (10)

 

Do Arizona Fall League (AFL) Stats Mean Anything?

Be sure to enter the OV Free Agent Contest. It ends when the World Series ends.

The Cubs, along with all the other teams, have several well known prospects playing in the Arizona Fall League (AFL) right now. They're about 10 games into their season and we've been recapping those games here. There are a lot of issues to consider when looking at these stats if you'd like to put them into some kind of perspective.

First, they're against minor leaguers. Second, it's in Arizona and teams tend to send their best hitters while the best pitchers more often than not are not sent. Third, the disparity in talent in is huge. There can be AAA players, or even players who got some MLB playing time, along with guys in A ball. Fourth, the sample sizes are never all that large. For example, Howie Kendrick had about 125 plate appearances in 2005 and that led the league. Only 8 players had 100 at-bats or more.

Calculating plate appearances is a bit difficult given that mlb.com does not list HBP and SF with the final season stats. There may be game logs we could go through, but it's not worth it. All you have are at bats and walks and that's what I've used to calculate PA in the table at the bottom.

The sample size issue alone is a big one. We know that it's not nearly large enough to learn a whole lot about the player that we didn't already know. A good season shouldn't really change our expectations going forward just as a bad season doesn't tell us it's only going to get worse.

Finally, due to the lack of stats available, calculating the exact league offense is difficult. We can come close with what we have, but it is going to be off a bit.

One other small thing, there aren't all that many who have even enough PA to qualify in the league among the league leaders. Playing time is spread around and not given out to who is the more talented players. Teams send their players there to get playing time and expect them to be played. MLB front offices probably have influence over how much certain players play. The league is smaller so being in the top 5 at the end of the short season isn't the same.

In 2005, there were only 42 qualified hitters. If you are 10th, you're only the in the top 25% of hitters in the league that year. A guy who ranked 10th in OPS in the AFL in 2005 would be comparable to someone who ranked 35th at the MLB level. 

Despite all of the issues, we can answer unequivocally that yes, AFL stats mean something. They are important and they do tell us something. It's data. Of course it's meaningful.

The question is how meaningful and that's not something I can answer. I can say that we should consider all the issues above, as well as others I haven't thought.

I can only offer an opinion. It's one I offered in the comments recently. I don't believe they're that meaningful. I don't think they really tell us much about the player that we didn't know before. I can say with some certainty that none of the performances by Cubs prospects, whether good or bad, is going to change my opinion of their ability with one possible exception.

Kris Bryant had fewer than 200 plate appearances after being drafted. He could get about 100 in the AFL, which is actually at a level a little above where he has played so far. After the AFL, a considerable amount of his professional plate appearances will be in the AFL. I'd probably only use that information as a tie-breaker if I was in charge. For example, if I was torn between sending him back to High A or AA (or AA or AAA) then his performance in the AFL could affect my decision. I'm doubtful the Cubs front office is torn at the moment and has already decided where he'll begin the 2014 season. If that is the case, you might learn a thing or two, but ultimately the AFL served as a place where he and others could game playing time.

Anyway, below are the top 10 qualified AFL hitters each year from 2005 through 20011. You can get the picture that the stats should be taken lightly, but they do include some very good players too.

Year NAME POS G PA HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
2005 Eric Duncan 3B 23 104 8 0.362 0.423 0.734 1.157
2005 Stephen Drew SS 23 106 6 0.337 0.439 0.708 1.147
2005 Andre Ethier OF 23 103 2 0.366 0.495 0.598 1.093
2005 Brandon Wood SS 29 123 14 0.307 0.375 0.711 1.086
2005 Kendrys Morales 1B 24 104 2 0.38 0.444 0.598 1.042
2005 Kevin Howard 2B 25 98 3 0.409 0.475 0.557 1.032
2005 Matt Kemp OF 23 99 3 0.383 0.414 0.606 1.021
2005 Brad Snyder OF 25 109 3 0.367 0.438 0.582 1.019
2005 Garrett Jones 1B 25 104 9 0.289 0.336 0.68 1.017
2005 Corey Smith 3B 24 99 7 0.33 0.39 0.626 1.016
                   
2006 NAME POS G PA HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
2006 Chip Cannon 1B 29 126 11 0.352 0.474 0.714 1.188
2006 Kevin Frandsen 2B 23 97 4 0.388 0.48 0.588 1.068
2006 Ryan Braun 3B 25 103 6 0.326 0.396 0.641 1.038
2006 Yunel Escobar SS 22 95 2 0.407 0.463 0.558 1.021
2006 Ben Zobrist SS 27 124 2 0.366 0.469 0.515 0.984
2006 Mark Reynolds 3B 27 110 5 0.327 0.389 0.564 0.954
2006 Amaury Cazana OF 21 87 4 0.345 0.378 0.571 0.949
2006 Michel Abreu 1B 22 105 6 0.28 0.362 0.548 0.91
2006 Curtis Thigpen C 23 100 2 0.307 0.392 0.5 0.892
2006 Eric Patterson 2B 28 125 1 0.345 0.408 0.46 0.868
                   
2007 NAME POS G PA HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
2007 Sam Fuld OF 29 124 3 0.402 0.492 0.626 1.118
2007 Scott Sizemore 2B 21 100 2 0.356 0.416 0.578 0.994
2007 Juan Miranda 1B 22 94 5 0.295 0.423 0.551 0.974
2007 Corey Wimberly 2B 18 64 0 0.407 0.462 0.508 0.97
2007 Evan Longoria 3B 18 71 4 0.308 0.378 0.585 0.963
2007 Nate Schierholtz OF 23 90 4 0.348 0.363 0.596 0.958
2007 Travis Snider OF 26 113 4 0.316 0.404 0.541 0.944
2007 Sergio Santos SS 24 97 5 0.319 0.337 0.585 0.922
2007 Marc Maddox 2B 21 92 2 0.321 0.398 0.481 0.879
2007 Kory Casto 3B 18 76 1 0.281 0.418 0.453 0.871
                   
2008 NAME POS G PA HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
2008 Tyler Flowers C 20 85 12 0.387 0.46 0.973 1.433
2008 Jason Donald SS 25 102 5 0.407 0.476 0.747 1.223
2008 Michael McKenry C 28 90 9 0.369 0.43 0.786 1.216
2008 Eric Young OF 31 112 5 0.43 0.504 0.64 1.144
2008 Rhyne Hughes 1B 27 116 5 0.394 0.432 0.697 1.129
2008 Mike Baxter OF 22 96 3 0.402 0.495 0.634 1.129
2008 Casper Wells CF 23 84 8 0.321 0.424 0.705 1.129
2008 Gordon Beckham SS 18 74 3 0.394 0.468 0.652 1.119
2008 Logan Morrison 1B 25 107 5 0.404 0.444 0.667 1.111
2008 Daniel Murphy 2B 15 76 2 0.397 0.487 0.619 1.106
                   
2009 NAME POS G PA HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
2009 Colin Curtis LF 20 89 5 0.397 0.472 0.731 1.203
2009 Matt McBride C 22 93 4 0.378 0.511 0.649 1.159
2009 Casper Wells CF 21 88 4 0.351 0.433 0.662 1.096
2009 Grant Desme CF 27 124 11 0.315 0.413 0.667 1.079
2009 Brandon Snyder 1B 17 78 3 0.354 0.456 0.6 1.056
2009 Nevin Ashley C 18 73 2 0.366 0.405 0.648 1.053
2009 Brandon Laird 3B 22 100 6 0.333 0.406 0.633 1.039
2009 Brent Morel 3B 16 66 2 0.435 0.456 0.565 1.02
2009 Marcus Lemon 2B 18 72 4 0.343 0.389 0.627 1.016
2009 Corey Brown OF 25 116 6 0.333 0.397 0.619 1.016
                   
2010 NAME POS G PA HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
2010 Dustin Ackley 2B 20 92 4 0.424 0.581 0.758 1.338
2010 Adam Loewen OF 14 64 5 0.333 0.438 0.667 1.104
2010 J.C. Linares OF 17 69 3 0.397 0.423 0.662 1.084
2010 Derek Norris C 16 65 4 0.278 0.403 0.667 1.07
2010 Brandon Belt 1B 22 95 1 0.372 0.427 0.616 1.043
2010 Cord Phelps 2B 19 95 3 0.367 0.474 0.557 1.031
2010 Mike McDade 1B 22 99 1 0.375 0.45 0.557 1.007
2010 Charlie Culberson 2B 21 98 2 0.366 0.394 0.591 0.985
2010 Jason Kipnis 2B 19 83 3 0.295 0.337 0.628 0.966
2010 Kristopher Negron SS 24 89 4 0.296 0.36 0.593 0.952
                   
2011 NAME POS G PA HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
2011 Jedd Gyorko 3B 18 81 5 0.437 0.5 0.704 1.204
2011 Scooter Gennett 2B 22 100 2 0.411 0.47 0.556 1.026
2011 Nolan Arenado 3B 29 129 6 0.388 0.423 0.636 1.059
2011 Robbie Grossman OF 26 124 7 0.375 0.472 0.625 1.097
2011 Leury Garcia SS 20 86 3 0.361 0.379 0.59 0.97
2011 Wil Myers OF 23 106 4 0.36 0.481 0.674 1.156
2011 Josh Vitters OF 24 104 4 0.36 0.383 0.54 0.923
2011 Mike Olt 3B 27 121 13 0.349 0.433 0.764 1.197
2011 Kevin Mattison OF 25 124 6 0.349 0.433 0.624 1.057
2011 Adam Eaton RF 30 136 2 0.344 0.41 0.475 0.885

Sam Fuld. (dying laughing)

Assume the Position in Review: C

I thought it would be neat to review my critiques at each position that I made before the season. Let's see how wrong I was!

MLB

Beef Castle is the definite starter next year. He's projected by BJ to have a wOBA of .318. I like him a pretty good deal: his minor league numbers indicate that he is ascending, he improved over the course of the season, and his defensive game-calling abilities are vastly underrated and overreported. Not an area of concern. Steve Clevenger's projection seems incredibly optimistic. I'm not sure I expect an wOBA above .285-.290. If he does reach .310, he becomes a very useful backup/utility guy; it's also the only way he stays on the roster. Some people believe he played all of 2012 hurt, but that's either false or stupid (take your pick). Dioner Navarro is 5 years removed from being useful. He's the de facto backup, though he can't hit and can barely field so who knows how long it'll be until he's usurped by Clevenger or someone else.

All in all, a pretty damn fine job here! He ended up with a .328 wOBA, which is essentially exactly in line with his 2012 numbers. He cemented himself as a long-term solution at catcher. Clevenger was traded midseason. I missed on Navarro, as did everyone else. He played himself into a starting role somewhere else next year (but not here).

AAA

Juan Apodaca is a 26-year old journeyman who put up very nice numbers in AAA last year. He's been with 4 organizations and never reached the bigs. I don't understand why: he's not old, he's walked at every level, and the very few scouting reports I've seen on him indicate he's not terrible behind the plate. He's got low power, but that's no game breaker: he maybe deserves a backup role somewhere but it won't be with the Cubs – they released him last year (he's with the Rangers now). I include him only because he was the primary AAA guy this year: the other guy (that wasn't Castillo) was the abortiveBrian Esposito. I haven't seen his release notice on mlbtr so I assume he's still with the club: he's 33 and can't hack it at AAA. Blake Lalli was also booted. The Cubs had 4 primary catchers on the AAA roster last year and none of them will be back.

I was right. None of them were back, though Blake Lalli saw some time with the Rangers organization this year. 

AA

Michael Brenly is the "favorite" to break camp with the AAA squad (if Clevenger isn't waived, clears, and accepts). He is the son of Bob Brenly, which is the only reason he was drafted. Since then, he's been an unspectacular, slow-moving catcher. I have no reason to believe he'll ever contribute at the MLB level. Luis Flores put up a .572 OPS as a 25 year backup in AA last year. 

Brenly left the organization not long after his father did. Luis Flores was as anemic as he ever was, this time as the backup in AAA. Progress!

A+

Micah Gibbs might be a backup one day, maybe? He walks and he's not particularly old for his level (I mean, he's not a prospect level, but he's not completely worthless yet). He's got no power and for a 3rd rounder has disappointed. Se la vie…Chad Noble was so bad last year that I couldn't even include him on this list. Rafael Lopez is too old for this level, but has been a solid performer so far. Catchers as a rule get a longer age-leash in the minors, so the book isn't entirely closed on him. He's got mediocre gap power, which for a catcher is pretty good.

Gibbs repeated A+, couldn't hack it, was released, and was picked up by the Royals, and he couldn't hack it there either. Chad Noble is org filler. Rafael Lopez acquitted himself quite nicely in AA this year, picking up an ASG nod and a .344 wOBA. He'll be the full-time catcher in AAA next year, and he's got potential as a major-league backup.

A

Yaniel Cabezas had an OPS under .550 and thus didn't qualify for my list, because he isn't a baseball player. Sergio Burruel has youth on his side, but he's been in the organization for 4 years and has never slugged above his OBP. Chadd Krist inexplicably sounds like the name of a porn star to me. He had a very nice season in 2012 and should start the year as the A starter, or maybe the A+ co-starter.

Cabezas was much better this year, but still really bad after a promotion to Daytona. Burruel went to the Mexican League. Chadd Krist had a nice season, and was the A starter AND A+ co-starter.

A-

Willson Contreras is young and adequate at Boise this year. He also had a 47% CS last year, which is probably unsustainable. He's been in the organization for 4 years and has always been average to middling with the bat, but that's no dealbreaker at all. Lance Rymel was a 28th round draft pick in the 2012 draft and got embarrassed in his 25 games. His BABIP was under .200 so he's a fair bet to look better next year, but he has some definite work to do if he wants to stick around. Carlos Escobar is another 2012 draftee (15th), and he acquitted himself quite well. He'll be 22 next year, and should grab the bulk of the starts for the club next year if not promoted to A outright.

Willson Contreras broke out this year, with a .341 wOBA in 345 PA at A. His CS went down to 30%, but that's still a fine number. Lance Rymel was much improved but still nothing special. Carlos Escobar did adequately in a timeshare with Contreras, but he probably got more time than he deserved due to being a 2012 draftee.

Rk

Justin Marra is become Youkilis, destroyer of pitchers with poor control. He got a late start to his career after being drafted in 2011, but embarrassed the rookie league much like Vogelbach did (albeit in a much different way). He had a .397 BABIP, so he's a serious regression candidate (as is the fact that he very likely just took the walks given to him), but you couldn't ask much more from a guy in his first taste of baseball. Hits doubles, and walks, what's not to like? Alberto Mineo is 17 and has 62 career PA. I'd be lying if I told you I knew anything about him. 

Marra battled injuries and ineffectiveness early on this year, but rallied to hit .224/.313/.482 with 6 HR in 96 PA. That was on the back of a .265 BABIP, also. He'll be the full-time starter at C if I'm not mistaken with an opportunity to really impress. Alberto Mineo had even less PA than last year. 

I'm not going to do FRk, because it's so far from my periphery.

The Cubs don't have any real breakout candidates anywhere near ready to hit the majors. Depending on how you feel about Clevenger, you might not even have great depth at the major league level. I think that there are a few fringey-prospects in the deep minors (Marra, Escobar, Contreras) but absolutely no one that I'd feel projecting to ever start for the Cubs in the next 4-5 years. 

All in all, I think I did a pretty good job. Contreras took a step forward, but there still isn't anyone really that close to being a game-changer at the MLB. Fortunately, it doesn't matter, as Welington Castillo has been more than adequate over the past 2 years. 

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Jake Arrieta

With 409 professional innings under his belt, Jake Arrieta isn't a prospect. As one of the major acquisitions over the past 12 months, however, and as someone who remains more potential than performance at this point, we felt it was worth it to take a look at his 2013 and try to get a sense of what he may or may not become for the Cubs down the road.

A 27 year old right hander taken in the fifth round of the 2007 draft by the Orioles, Arrieta worked his way through the Orioles' farm system and arrived in Baltimore in June 2010. Along the way he would rack up impressive strikeout totals (posting 10.68 and 7.66 K/9 rates between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk as a 23 year old in 2009), sterling ERAs (sub-3.00 ERAs at both high-A and and Double-A, and a 1.85 mark in his second go at Norfolk in 2010), and iffy walk rates (Arrieta owns a career 3.8 minor league BB/9). Baseball America ranked him the 67th best prospect in the game after his debut 2008 season, falling to #99 a year later due to a lackluster first go at AAA.

Arrieta spent his first two seasons as a big leaguer being not much good at anything. His walk rates continued to be terrible, walking more than 10% of his batters faced in both 2010 and 2011, leading to FIPs of 4.76 and 5.34, respectively, and 0.9 and 0.0 WAR seasons. 2012 offered some promise of development, as his strikeout rate rebounded (8.56 K/9, 22%), he cut his walk rate nearly in half (2.75 BB/9, 7.1%), and posted a 4.05 FIP that was almost a run and a half lower than the year previous. His ERA swelled to over 6 thanks to a godawful strand rate (57.3%), but he still managed a 1.6 WAR season, and began 2013 looking to shed a rep as a Quad-A player.

Performance

The promise of 2012 faded quickly for Arrieta, who was terrible in 4 April starts for Baltimore before being banished back to Norfolk. He allowed a total of 20 runs and 17 walks in 23.2 innings for Baltimore before the Orioles dealt him to the Cubs along with Pedro Strop in the Scott Feldman trade. Over the course of 2013, his walk rate has ballooned once more to a hair south of 5 per nine. His HR/FB rate, while down from the ~15% mark he'd posted the past two seasons, is still an awful 12.3%, allowing more than one per nine. His ground ball rate stinks, his BABIP is unsustainably low (.239 compared to a career .284 mark), and he's FIPing at a 4.84 mark on the year. He's found a bit more success since the trade, offering 5 quality starts out of 9 attempts for the Cubs and a 3.66 ERA in 51.2 innings, but has still walked 24 against only 37 Ks since switching leagues.

All in all, while the Cub portion of Arrieta's 2013 season has looked acceptable enough, it looks like he's done it with smoke and mirrors, and there's little in the numbers that suggests much reason to get excited about him long term.

Scouting

Arrieta mainly throws five pitches, though he added a cutter in 2012 that he's mixed in about 1% of the time since. Mostly Arrieta works off of his two fastballs, a four-seamer and a sinker, both of which sit about 93 mph. He also throws a curveball and slider with regularity, and an infrequently used changeup that's a clear level or two below his other offerings.

There's a lot of pro opinion out there on Arrieta, so let's dig into that a bit, eh? Here's what B-Pro had to say in April when Arrieta was sent back down to AAA-Norfolk:

After 62 starts spread over parts of four seasons it's time to ask: When do you move Arrieta to the bullpen? The 27-year-old heads to Norfolk as the big-league leader in walks issued, having granted 16 free passes in 19 innings. Arrieta is a big, physical guy with a pair of good fastballs and the ability to maintain his velocity deep into games. Unfortunately, his command and control leave everyone wanting. There's probably a good reason why the O's have abstained from throwing Arrieta in the bullpen—perhaps he can't warm up quick enough, or they can't bring themselves to give up on his starting days…For now it's worth asking the question. Starting just isn't working.

And in analyzing the trade to the Cubs post-deadline:

[Arrieta’s] got a big fastball and was a top 100 prospect at 23, but he hasn’t shown the pitchability to get batters out a third time through the order, or the changeup to handle lefties. He's 27, past the age at which he can ask for patience. That all makes him a potential bullpen reclamation.

That same piece links to a really interesting MASN Sports column about Arrieta and what's potentially wrong with him. One interesting quote from it:

"I think Arrieta, when he gets in trouble, goes a little too hard and it snowballs on him. He doesn't pitch and he loses his composure. He just panics."

This, more or less, is the book on Arrieta everywhere; fantastic stuff with no command, and an approach to pitching that doesn't reflect a guy that trusts his top-tier stuff (sounds pretty Marmol-esque, to me, for whatever that's worth). Just about every scouting report will mention how Arrieta might have a dominant future in the bullpen if a team ever tries him out.

Outlook

Barring some semi-miraculous, Cliff Lee-style evaporation of his walk rate, Arrieta doesn't seem to have much of a future as a major-league starter. He's had more success since joining the Cubs, but even the quality starts look to be fairly smoke and mirrors, fueled by a low BABIP and lofty aspirations. Most everyone agrees he's got the stuff to succeed as a late-inning reliever, but that last quote above raises questions for me about makeup, and whether or not he has the personality that can handle blowing an eighth or ninth inning lead without taking it with him into his next appearance. 

As far as next season goes, his solid superficial numbers since the trade might earn him a few starts next season, especially if Theo and Company decide to shoot for 2015 instead of 2014. Whenever the organization decides to really try to contend, however, you'd have to think Arrieta would fall into a bullpen/6th starter role, with the potential to earn more high-leverage late-inning work as the year progresses.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Kyle Hendricks

kyle-hendricksKyle Hendricks is a 6-3, 190 pound right-handed starting pitcher. He turns 24 on December 7th and was drafted 8th round of the 2011 Draft out of Dartmouth College. Here's what Baseball America wrote at the time of the draft.

An economics major at Dartmouth, Hendricks brings a heady presence to the mound. He does more than just outsmart hitters, though, as he has legitimate stuff too. While he pitched exclusively in relief for Spokane, Hendricks mixes four pitches and has a starter's profile. He uses a sneaky 89-91 mph fastball that can get as high as 94, a sharp curveball, an occasional slider and a plus changeup. The changeup is his best pitch and one he's willing to throw in any count. "You watch him pitch and you can never tell what he's throwing," Hulett said. "His pitching tempo is always the same, whether its a fastball or a changeup. He's just got a good idea out there with great composure and great presence on the mound."

The Cubs acquired Hendricks, the team's minor league starting pitcher of the year, from the Rangers last summer for Ryan Dempster. The Cubs also acquired 3rd baseman Christian Villanueva.

Performance

Hendricks was more of a throw-in when the Cubs acquired him. He was someone who had pitched well, but didn't have a high ceiling. He still does't, but he's now pitched well enough that he's climbed the Cubs prospect rankings.

He had a dominating season in AA and pitched quite well in AAA. At Tennessee, Hendricks threw 126.1 innings over 21 starts. He struckout 101, walked only 26 batters, hit 5 batters and threw just one wild pitch. Among AA pitchers who threw 80 or more innings, Kyle Hendricks' 1.85 was the best. No other pitcher was below 2. His 2.65 FIP was third best.

In AA he struckout 19.9% of the batters and walked only 5.5%. He allowed only 3 home runs. His 14.8% K-BB% ranked 22nd in AA.

Hendricks was promoted to Iowa near the end of the season and made 6 starts. He threw 40 innings and struckout 27 batters. He walked 8. His K% dropped to 17%, but his walk rate remained at 5%.

His walk rate was even better last year. Overall this season, Hendricks made 27 starts and threw 166.1 innings. He allowed 142 hits and only 5 of them were home runs. He struckout 128 and walked 34. He struckout 19.2% of the batters faced and walked 5.1%.

Hendricks performed better than the Cubs could have expected when they acquired him.

Scouting

GW wrote about Kyle Hendricks scouting report just a few weeks before the season ended so I'm just going to quote him (thanks, GW).

The Good:

  • He’s dominated hitters in the minors due to above-average control and command of his four-pitch repertoire (fastball, curveball, cutter, changeup)
  • His simple mechanics allow him to consistently repeat his delivery — both from the full windup and from the stretch.
  •  Hendricks did a nice job of changing speeds and mixing his pitches…
  • [He] received swinging strikeouts on both his changeup — which showed plus potential — and on his cutter…

The Bad:

  • He has a fringe-average fastball in the 87-91 mph range.
  • I was a little surprised in his lack of athleticism.
  • His curveball was just fringe-average on this day and did not result in many swings and misses — most were fouled off.

It would be easy to look at the ERA and FIP that he has posted in his career and get really excited about Hendricks. Go ahead and get excited, but temper your expectations. It's hard to work at the MLB level when your fastball often sits in the 80s. We don't see a lot of guys throwing 80 mph fastballs because they usually aren't very good. They tend to get hard at the MLB level.

Still, there's something to be excited about despite the lack of velocity. I can't really remember the last time the Cubs had someone with the command that Hendricks has shown. Strikeouts and walks are the two most predictive pitching stats. You like guys who strikeout a lot, but more than that, you need separation between the two. You also need to keep the walks under control. You can't strikeout 30% of the batters and walk more than 15% and expect to remain a starter, or a reliever for very long. However, Hendricks seems to have a high enough strikeout rate that we're going to see him in Chicago. He's got a chance to be as good as a mid-rotation pitcher, but could safely fall into a number 4 or 5. That has value.

Hendricks has 4 pitches: fastball, slider, curve and his best pitch is his change-up. His change-up was ranked as the best in the Carolina League in 2012 by Baseball America. His mixes up his fastballs too. He throws a 4-seamer, 2-seamer and cutter. He commands all his pitches well and based on eye from this video, he repeats his delivery with ease. I won't add anything else because of my untrained eye.

Kyle Hendricks vs. Wilmington (5/20/2012) from Jason Cole on Vimeo.

Outlook

Hendricks will probably return to AAA at the start of next season as a 24-year old. There's a chance he could earn a spot in the Cubs rotation with a strong spring training, but Theo and company have been deliberate and will likely want him to get more work. The good news is that the work for him can pile up quickly. He averaged nearly 6.1 innings per start in 2013. he did average even more in AAA (one out shy of 7 innings per start).

He pitched either 7.0 innings or 8.0 innings in 12 of his 27 starts. Interestingly, there were only two starts (back to back starts in May) in which Hendricks was pulled mid-inning. Each start he pitched 6.2 innings. Compared to C.J. Edwards, Hendricks is a throwback to when they threw 300 innings per season.

At some point in 2013 we will see Hendricks make his Major League debut. I'm going to guess it happens around mid-May.

If he can maintain his K-BB% he can be good even without the high strikeout rate. The guy will throw strikes and he mixes his pitches well enough to be an MLB starter.

Considering he was viewed as a throw-in, the Cubs have to be super happy with what they've gotten in return.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews