Added a bunch of Hope Monster T-shirts to the store. Let me know if like the design or would like other, related designs: other text, specific comics, etc. http://www.cafepress.com/obstructed_view/10392101
Author: Obstructed View Staff
JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-4-2013
Bottom line: Cubs 2 out of 3. Not bad. Since Myles had a hard night last night, which we'll blame on the newborn, I volunteered to fill in today with my semi-annual OV post. You get what you pay for.
Iowa Cubs vs a Better Team: postponed.
Divine intervention saves us again.
Tennessee Smokies
Eric Jokisch was named Cubs Minor League pitcher of the month for April, and he earned it too. 26K, 6BB. That’s pretty good. .240 BAA, which I guess probably means his BABIP was about normal when you factor out the strikeouts, so I assume that’s not a fluky month. If you want a really sabery analysis of the minor leagues, you need to go help Myles change diapers or work the kinks out of dmick’s back. For me, sabermetrics are like dogs and cats, I like them a lot, when someone else takes care of them. Traditional stats: 3-1, 1.84 ERA over 5 starts. Check that shiny ERA. It would be nice if this guy could stay healthy. 149 IP at AA over three years suggests that is an issue.
So to celebrate his success, the Smokies started Jokisch last night.
Tennessee Smokies 0, @ Mississippi Braves 8
Jokisch now has an ERA of 3.34. 6 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in 3 innings will do that to you. Math sucks. The Smokies only had 4 hits and two walks, no one had 2 of any of these and no power at all. Jae-Hoon Ha hurt his back the other day and hasn’t played since. So the star of the day yesterday was the sun, which is producing some pretty spectacular solar storms right now that shawndgoldman is not keeping us in the loop about. Shawn’s been totally unreliable now that he has a real job.
By the way, the Smokies website banner is using “It’s a 9 inning vacation” as a theme. Wow. They are Committed.
OK, let’s talk about some baseball now.
Daytona Cubs 11 @ Lakeland Flying Tigers 5. 6th win in a row.
I don’t know the rules about the jinx the DylanJ and dmick have on last night’s starter. So let’s just say his first name is the initials of the clothes that kids wear to bed, and his last name is a combination of the words that fill in the blanks: _________ Fries (or ________ Toast) and not pro but _____. Anyway, this nameless guy really un-sucked. 6.0 IP, 5K, 3H, 1BB 0 Runs. I guess he’s had some bad luck this year, because his ERA is 4.80 but he’s struck out 27 against only 7 BB and 29 H in 30.0 innings. His K:BB ratio is up 54% compared to last year, so far. In 1.2 innings, Starling Peralta tried to give it all back, allowing all 5 Flying Tiger runs on 6 hits. Cubs were up 9-0 before Peralta got started, so I guess he had some breathing room.
With 11 runs, you’d expect some great hitting lines, and you would not be disappointed. Here is the best one: John Andreoli—3 for 4 including 2 triples. Scored 3, drove in 1 and added a walk. The batting by the rest of the team was pretty balanced, which you really have to like, eh? Nine other players scored 1 run each. Only one other Cub had 2 hits, Ben Carhart, plus he had a SB. Everyone else contributed. Jorge Soler hit his 3rd HR of the year, a solo shot, his only hit of the night, but he walked twice and drove in another run. Taylor Davis, whose name I can’t recall ever seeing at OV before, added a 2-R pinch homer. Javier Baez and Zeke DeVoss each drove in 2 runs without getting a hit. Baez’s RBI’s came on a sac fly and a bases-loaded HBP. DeVoss drove in runs with a walk and a sac fly.
Kane County Cougars 6 vs Dayton Dragons 1.
Fifth win in a row to climb to .500 and 4th in the MidWest Western Division. What’s with the naming convention in this league? It’s a geographical muddle. MidWest Eastern and MidWest Western. Ugh. Surely with their legendary history, they could be leaders on division names.
Felix Peña gets his first win of the year with a good night. 7.0 IP, 4H, 1BB, and 7 K, giving up one run. Justin Amlung closed the game with 2.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and a K. Oh, and a balk. A based-loaded double play saved Amlung in the 8th.
Dan Vogelbach displayed his peripheral skills with 2 BB in 4 PA and scored a run. Plus he got his third stolen base of the year. He is fourth on the team in steals, with 10% of the team total. What month is it again? Jeimar Candelario had the same line as Vogelbach, but no SB. What is this, Mirror day? YOu have to like it when hitters contribute even if they don't hit that day. The Cubs Way seems to be working on the first Saturday in May in low minors, but I don't want to get over-enthusiastic yet. Bijan Rademacher was 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and an RBI. Oliver Zapata hit a 2-R HR while batting 2 for 4. Everyone else had a hit. Wilson Contreras’s hit was a 3-R double.
Fuck You Dale Sveum
It's been a few years since I busted out one of these but the mindfuck that was Dale Sveum's comments today about Castro & Rizzo has enraged me to the point of typing about it so here we go.
Fuck you Dale Sveum. Fuck you and your horseshit pontifications about "accountability" and performance. If you really think that Starlin Castro & Anthony Rizzo belong in the minors then so do you. If you're a standup guy whose all about accountability then why on earth would you want some other coach to teach your two best players how to play the game the right way ™. You're the highest paid coach in the organization and you swagger around like daddy big dick so why don't you step the fuck up and handle that shit? If the bottom line is performance without any regard to context then you need to fire yourself tomorrow Dale. Because the brass tacks of the situation look like this, you're a former hitting coach whose Cub teams have hit a grand .236 under your watch. They have driven in 340 runs in 185 games you managed. Your winning percentage is .389. Mike Quade's was .477. I repeat Mike fucking Quade is miles above you based on your bare bones, head in the sand evaluation method. So the next time you feel like running your mouth to the media about accountability remember it starts with you. I look forward to your next press conference from the Des Moines media center.
Jim Callis on Albert Almora
Baseball America's Jim Callis answered a reader's question in one of his recent articles. Asked which of Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, David Dahl and Yasiel Puig had the the best chance for succes, Callis said it was easy.
Which is the best bet for success is easy. Almora has the highest floor among that group, with scouts considering him one of the most advanced and mature high school players to come along in years.
The No. 6 overall pick in the 2012 draft is currently sidelined with a broken hamate bone in his left hand, but Almora should speed toward Wrigley Field once healthy. I’ll be stunned if he doesn’t become at least an annual .275/15 homer hitter with Gold Glove ability in center field.
He also took Puig as having the highest ceiling among the group.
Cubs minor leaguers compared to league median age
Baseball America was nice enough to publish the median age for each league in the minor leagues. This is useful information. We often talk about a prospect being young or old for his level. Just look at my writeup on the Kane County Cougars pitching staff. As Baseball America notes, it's rare to find a significant prospect who is old for his level.
These median ages are even older than what we typically use to describe old or young for a level. For example, the median age in the Midwest League (A ball), is 22.2. I tend to think of 21 as the cutoff point. It has to be at least 21 or all college drafted players would be considered old for the level. That doesn't seem fair at all.
I calculated the age in years based on the birthdates listed on milb.com for each Cubs minor leaguer and compared it to the median age for their level.
Name | Team | Pos | Age | Median Age | Diff |
Nick Struck | Iowa Cubs | P | 23.5 | 26.8 | -3.3 |
Logan Watkins | Iowa Cubs | 2B | 23.6 | 26.8 | -3.2 |
Josh Vitters | Iowa Cubs | 3B | 23.6 | 26.8 | -3.2 |
Arismendy Alcantara | Tennessee Smokies | SS | 21.4 | 24.6 | -3.2 |
Javier Baez | Daytona Cubs | SS | 20.3 | 23.5 | -3.2 |
Ben Wells | Daytona Cubs | P | 20.6 | 23.5 | -2.9 |
Jeimer Candelario | Kane County Cougars | 3B | 19.4 | 22.2 | -2.8 |
Christian Villanueva | Tennessee Smokies | 3B | 21.8 | 24.6 | -2.8 |
Barret Loux | Iowa Cubs | P | 24.0 | 26.8 | -2.8 |
Jorge Soler | Daytona Cubs | RF | 21.1 | 23.5 | -2.4 |
Jae-Hoon Ha | Tennessee Smokies | CF | 22.4 | 24.6 | -2.2 |
Dustin Geiger | Daytona Cubs | 3B | 21.3 | 23.5 | -2.2 |
Brett Jackson | Iowa Cubs | CF | 24.7 | 26.8 | -2.1 |
Austin Reed | Daytona Cubs | P | 21.4 | 23.5 | -2.1 |
Brooks Raley | Iowa Cubs | P | 24.8 | 26.8 | -2.0 |
Tony Zych | Tennessee Smokies | P | 22.7 | 24.6 | -1.9 |
Daniel Vogelbach | Kane County Cougars | 1B | 20.3 | 22.2 | -1.9 |
Gioskar Amaya | Kane County Cougars | 2B | 20.3 | 22.2 | -1.9 |
Brian Smith | Kane County Cougars | P | 20.3 | 22.2 | -1.9 |
Trey Martin | Kane County Cougars | CF | 20.3 | 22.2 | -1.9 |
Oliver Zapata | Kane County Cougars | OF | 20.6 | 22.2 | -1.6 |
Marco Hernandez | Kane County Cougars | SS | 20.6 | 22.2 | -1.6 |
Rafael Dolis | Iowa Cubs | P | 25.2 | 26.8 | -1.6 |
Tayler Scott | Kane County Cougars | P | 20.8 | 22.2 | -1.4 |
Yao-Lin Wang | Daytona Cubs | P | 22.2 | 23.5 | -1.3 |
Willson Contreras | Kane County Cougars | C | 20.9 | 22.2 | -1.3 |
Kyle Hendricks | Tennessee Smokies | P | 23.3 | 24.6 | -1.3 |
Stephen Bruno | Daytona Cubs | 3B | 22.4 | 23.5 | -1.1 |
Starling Peralta | Daytona Cubs | P | 22.4 | 23.5 | -1.1 |
Casey Coleman | Iowa Cubs | P | 25.8 | 26.8 | -1.0 |
Zach Putnam | Iowa Cubs | P | 25.8 | 26.8 | -1.0 |
Elliot Soto | Tennessee Smokies | SS | 23.6 | 24.6 | -1.0 |
Jaye Chapman | Iowa Cubs | P | 25.9 | 26.8 | -0.9 |
Trey McNutt | Tennessee Smokies | P | 23.7 | 24.6 | -0.9 |
Eric Jokisch | Tennessee Smokies | P | 23.7 | 24.6 | -0.9 |
Matt Szczur | Tennessee Smokies | CF | 23.7 | 24.6 | -0.9 |
Rubi Silva | Tennessee Smokies | OF | 23.8 | 24.6 | -0.8 |
Dallas Beeler | Tennessee Smokies | P | 23.8 | 24.6 | -0.8 |
Zeke DeVoss | Daytona Cubs | 2B | 22.7 | 23.5 | -0.8 |
John Andreoli | Daytona Cubs | LF | 22.8 | 23.5 | -0.7 |
Rock Shoulders | Kane County Cougars | 1B | 21.5 | 22.2 | -0.7 |
Frank Batista | Tennessee Smokies | P | 23.9 | 24.6 | -0.7 |
Wes Darvill | Kane County Cougars | 2B | 21.6 | 22.2 | -0.6 |
Austin Kirk | Daytona Cubs | P | 22.9 | 23.5 | -0.6 |
Timothy Saunders | Daytona Cubs | SS | 22.9 | 23.5 | -0.6 |
Dae-Eun Rhee | Tennessee Smokies | P | 24.0 | 24.6 | -0.6 |
Pin-Chieh Chen | Kane County Cougars | OF | 21.7 | 22.2 | -0.5 |
Johermyn Chavez | Tennessee Smokies | RF | 24.2 | 24.6 | -0.4 |
Bijan Rademacher | Kane County Cougars | OF | 21.8 | 22.2 | -0.4 |
Luis Flores | Iowa Cubs | C | 26.4 | 26.8 | -0.4 |
Chris Rusin | Iowa Cubs | P | 26.5 | 26.8 | -0.3 |
Ben Carhart | Daytona Cubs | 3B | 23.2 | 23.5 | -0.3 |
Pierce Johnson | Kane County Cougars | P | 21.9 | 22.2 | -0.3 |
Luis Liria | Daytona Cubs | P | 23.2 | 23.5 | -0.3 |
Zach Cates | Daytona Cubs | P | 23.3 | 23.5 | -0.2 |
Alberto Cabrera | Tennessee Smokies | P | 24.4 | 24.6 | -0.2 |
Taylor Davis | Daytona Cubs | C | 23.4 | 23.5 | -0.1 |
Anthony Giansanti | Tennessee Smokies | IF | 24.5 | 24.6 | -0.1 |
Jose Arias | Kane County Cougars | P | 22.2 | 22.2 | 0.0 |
Steve Perakslis | Kane County Cougars | P | 22.2 | 22.2 | 0.0 |
Kevin Rhoderick | Tennessee Smokies | P | 24.6 | 24.6 | 0.0 |
Frank Del Valle | Daytona Cubs | P | 23.6 | 23.5 | 0.1 |
Nathan Dorris | Kane County Cougars | P | 22.3 | 22.2 | 0.1 |
Zach Rosscup | Tennessee Smokies | P | 24.8 | 24.6 | 0.2 |
Justin Bour | Tennessee Smokies | 1B | 24.9 | 24.6 | 0.3 |
Ryan Searle | Daytona Cubs | P | 23.8 | 23.5 | 0.3 |
Ian Dickson | Kane County Cougars | P | 22.6 | 22.2 | 0.4 |
Marcus Hatley | Tennessee Smokies | P | 25.0 | 24.6 | 0.4 |
Jeffry Antigua | Kane County Cougars | P | 22.8 | 22.2 | 0.6 |
Taiwan Easterling | Daytona Cubs | OF | 24.1 | 23.5 | 0.6 |
Justin Amlung | Kane County Cougars | P | 22.9 | 22.2 | 0.7 |
Michael Heesch | Kane County Cougars | P | 22.9 | 22.2 | 0.7 |
P.J. Francescon | Daytona Cubs | P | 24.2 | 23.5 | 0.7 |
Eduardo Figueroa | Daytona Cubs | P | 24.3 | 23.5 | 0.8 |
Felix Pena | Kane County Cougars | P | 23.1 | 22.2 | 0.9 |
Rafael Lopez | Tennessee Smokies | C | 25.5 | 24.6 | 0.9 |
Sheldon McDonald | Daytona Cubs | P | 24.4 | 23.5 | 0.9 |
Chadd Krist | Kane County Cougars | C | 23.2 | 22.2 | 1.0 |
Blake Parker | Iowa Cubs | P | 27.8 | 26.8 | 1.0 |
Yeiper Castillo | Daytona Cubs | P | 24.6 | 23.5 | 1.1 |
Drew Carpenter | Iowa Cubs | P | 27.9 | 26.8 | 1.1 |
Micah Gibbs | Daytona Cubs | C | 24.7 | 23.5 | 1.2 |
Jonathan Mota | Tennessee Smokies | IF | 25.8 | 24.6 | 1.2 |
Ty Wright | Iowa Cubs | LF | 28.1 | 26.8 | 1.3 |
Ryan Sweeney | Iowa Cubs | RF | 28.1 | 26.8 | 1.3 |
Jair Fernandez | Tennessee Smokies | C | 26.3 | 24.6 | 1.7 |
A.J. Morris | Tennessee Smokies | P | 26.3 | 24.6 | 1.7 |
Yaniel Cabezas | Kane County Cougars | C | 24.0 | 22.2 | 1.8 |
Eduardo Orozco | Kane County Cougars | P | 24.0 | 22.2 | 1.8 |
Lendy Castillo | Kane County Cougars | P | 24.0 | 22.2 | 1.8 |
Chad Noble | Daytona Cubs | C | 25.4 | 23.5 | 1.9 |
Jensen Lewis | Iowa Cubs | P | 28.9 | 26.8 | 2.1 |
Yoanner Negrin | Iowa Cubs | P | 28.9 | 26.8 | 2.1 |
Brian Bogusevic | Iowa Cubs | LF | 29.1 | 26.8 | 2.3 |
Esmailin Caridad | Iowa Cubs | P | 29.4 | 26.8 | 2.6 |
Brian Schlitter | Tennessee Smokies | P | 27.3 | 24.6 | 2.7 |
Cory Wade | Iowa Cubs | P | 29.9 | 26.8 | 3.1 |
Donnie Murphy | Iowa Cubs | 3B | 30.1 | 26.8 | 3.3 |
Brad Nelson | Iowa Cubs | 1B | 30.3 | 26.8 | 3.5 |
Edwin Maysonet | Iowa Cubs | SS | 31.5 | 26.8 | 4.7 |
Tim Torres | Tennessee Smokies | 2B | 29.4 | 24.6 | 4.8 |
J.C. Boscan | Iowa Cubs | C | 33.3 | 26.8 | 6.5 |
Darnell McDonald | Iowa Cubs | LF | 34.4 | 26.8 | 7.6 |
As I mentioned, those median ages are a little old for what we typically use. I hadn't really tried to put numbers to what I had in mind, but decided to go ahead and do that. Here are the ages at which I think a player is considered to be old for each level.
- A: 21.5
- A+: 22.5
- AA: 23.5
- AAA: 24.5
Some people might even argue it's younger. I know GW and I argued about this awhile back. I got the impression, based on our discussion of Christian Villanueva, that he felt 21 was the cutoff in A+. I can only guess that he might think it would be a year different for each level, making it about half a year younger at each level than what I've generally used.
I'm also not sure about AAA. We don't talk about too many highly ranked prospects who are older than 24 at AAA. Anyway, using my ages above, here are the 20 youngest players I get.
Name | Team | Pos | dmick89 Age | dmick89 Diff |
Javier Baez | Daytona Cubs | SS | 22.5 | -2.2 |
Jeimer Candelario | Kane County Cougars | 3B | 21.5 | -2.1 |
Arismendy Alcantara | Tennessee Smokies | SS | 23.5 | -2.1 |
Ben Wells | Daytona Cubs | P | 22.5 | -1.9 |
Christian Villanueva | Tennessee Smokies | 3B | 23.5 | -1.7 |
Jorge Soler | Daytona Cubs | RF | 22.5 | -1.4 |
Daniel Vogelbach | Kane County Cougars | 1B | 21.5 | -1.2 |
Gioskar Amaya | Kane County Cougars | 2B | 21.5 | -1.2 |
Brian Smith | Kane County Cougars | P | 21.5 | -1.2 |
Trey Martin | Kane County Cougars | CF | 21.5 | -1.2 |
Dustin Geiger | Daytona Cubs | 3B | 22.5 | -1.2 |
Austin Reed | Daytona Cubs | P | 22.5 | -1.1 |
Jae-Hoon Ha | Tennessee Smokies | CF | 23.5 | -1.1 |
Nick Struck | Iowa Cubs | P | 24.5 | -1.0 |
Oliver Zapata | Kane County Cougars | OF | 21.5 | -0.9 |
Marco Hernandez | Kane County Cougars | SS | 21.5 | -0.9 |
Logan Watkins | Iowa Cubs | 2B | 24.5 | -0.9 |
Josh Vitters | Iowa Cubs | 3B | 24.5 | -0.9 |
Tony Zych | Tennessee Smokies | P | 23.5 | -0.8 |
Tayler Scott | Kane County Cougars | P | 21.5 | -0.7 |
That list includes most of the Cubs top prospects. This list makes a lot more sense. Using the median, 4 of the 10 youngest were at AAA. Using my ages, it's now only 3 of the 20 youngest and it includes Nick Struck, Logan Watkins and Josh Vitters. None of them are elite prospects by any means, but all 3 probably belong in a top 20 or 30 Cubs prospects list.
While my suggest cutoffs might be more in line with how we typically think of ages in the minor leaguers, the fact that only 26 of the Cubs minor leaguers, just 25.2%, would be young for their level.
Prospect Profile: Ben Wells
After we started doing the minor league recaps, I quickly noticed that Ben Wells was absent from the list. He's certainly not the best pitching prospect the Cubs have, but he might be the one who is closest to making an impact at the big league level.
I'm planning to write at least one of these profiles per week. Early on at least, they will be about prospects that Dave and I did not rate prior to the start of the season. Of the 21 we did (15 positional prospects and 6 pitching prospects), we should have included Ben Wells.
Who is Ben Wells?
Wells was drafted in the 7th round in 2010 out of Bryant High School in Arkansas. A total of 6 players have been drafted out of this high school and 3 of them were in 1995. The most recent before Wells is the only one to reach the big leagues. Current Cub Travis Wood was drafted in the 2nd round out of the same high school.
He's listed at 6-2, 220 pounds, but I've seen him referred to of being at least 6-4. Fangraphs lists him at 6-3.
In high school, Wells was higly thought of. He had 3rd round talent, but fell to the 7th round when the Cubs picked him. In order to sign, they gave him 3rd round money.
Even by Jim Hendry standards, the contract he signed Ben Wells to was unusual. It's common for teams to pay for 4 years of college tuition for high school draft picks should they want to go to college at some point. So there was nothing unusual about that clause in his contract. What's odd is that the Cubs were also required to add Wells to the 40-man roster in 2013.
There's no word as far as I can tell at what point in 2013 he must be added. He's not currently on the 40-man roster. He's not eligible for the rule 5 draft until next year since he was not yet added to the roster. I just don't know whether or not he has to be added at the end of the season.
Where is he?
That odd clause in his contract may explain why the Cubs started Ben Wells in High A. He only pitched 45 innings last season as he was out much of the year with an elbow injury. It seemed odd to me that the Cubs would move Wells to High A Daytona.
He missed more than 2 months last season and didn't return until the end of August. After his return, he pitched an inning in rookie ball and then returned to A ball in Peoria. He made 2 starts, pitched 2 innings in each one, allowed a total of 5 hits, walked 4, hit a batter, threw 2 wild pitches and struckout only 1.
There's a lot of time between last year and the start of this season, but a promotion to Daytona would, based on the info we have, appear to be hurrying him along. I'm just not sure you promote a 20 year old after elbow injuries unless there's there are roster considerations to be made. What do I know though?
Is he any good?
Wells has always gotten a ton of ground balls. He also has very good control and not just for someone his age. There's a lot to like about someone who keeps the ball on the ground and throws strikes. Keeping the ball on the ground prevents home runs and throwing strikes obviously limits the walks, which are two of the more important aspects of pitching. On the other hand, he's not been someone who has struck a lot of batters out, but his control has been so good, that may not even matter.
Wells throws a sinker, slider, changeup and occasional splitter. Hit hits 90-94 with the fastball. His career walk percentage is just 5.8% and his strikeout rate is 17.3%. Despite not being a strikeout pitcher, his K-BB% is more than acceptable.
Because he keeps the ball on the ground so much, he's going to give up a lot of hits. He's allowed 138 hits and a total of 13 baserunners per 9 innings, which is a lot.
While there is a lot to like, the sample size is quite small to this point. Despite being drafted in 2010, he's only thrown a total of 126.1 innings. He hasn't shown the ability to pitch deep into games or pitch every sixth day on a consistent basis. Elbow problems at his age are obviously not a good thing.
He hasn't made any top prospect lists like some of the other Cubs pitchers. He's not a top 10 Cubs prospect and according to John Sickels, he's not even in their top 20. Sickels gave him a C+ grade each of the last two years. Sickels claims he has number 3 upside. Fangraphs gave him the upside of a number 3 or number 4.
Since I'm an optimist, I think it's a bit higher than that. Anybody who can keep the ball on the ground and keep throwing strikes has some legitimate potential. I don't believe he has ace upside. He's doesn't have the upside that some of the other Cubs pitchers have either.
OV Prospect Rating (see here for explanation and here for top prospects)
The other day I threw out a rating of 7F for Wells, but after looking into it more, that's too high an upside. I'd give him a rating of 5.5D. I think he can be a bit better than your average rotation guy, but probably not a whole lot better. Due to the elbow injury so early in his career, he has a very low floor.
A 5.5D would give a score of 40, which puts him at the bottom of our ranking, tied with Josh Vitters and Juan Paniagua.
2013 Cubs Prospects Ratings
A little over 2 weeks ago, I wrote an article with Uncle Dave's help about a different way to rate prospects. Dave got the idea from Hockey's Future.
Dave's explanations of what each number grade (ceiling) represented was so awesome that I used it word for word. I did want to clarify something on the letter grades (floor). An A represents a player who could lose a grade off of his ceiling. A player with a 9 could become an 8. Nobody has a 100% chance of reaching their ceiling and even few people will have an A. Each other letter grade is another number the player could drop. A 7D could end up at a 3.
The ratings below are for the 15 positional prospects that Myles wrote about, along with 6 pitching prospects. There is a way to take these ratings and create a rankings, which we'll get to at the end, but for now, the list below does not represent a ranking of the prospects.
Dave and I each wrote about the player in our correspondence. I'm going to try and pick and choose parts of each of our comments to include with the players. if you don't like something that was said, it was probably Uncle Dave who said it.
2013 Cubs Prospects: Position Players
Javier Baez: 9F. His tools scream superstar potential, though his upside rating takes a .5 to 1 point hit if he's shifted over to third. To this point, patience has been the only thing holding him back from being a top 10 prospect. So far, it's terrible, but he's young and there's plenty of time to fix it. If he does, a switch to 3rd won't much matter, which is probably inevitable with Starlin Castro at SS anyway. He's still young enough that he could wind up a AAAA guy if everything goes wrong. His performance this year will go a long way in putting a finer focus on his evaluations.
Albert Almora: 8E. Unusual for a player so young to get an E, but his makeup and defense make it a very good bet that he hits the bigs at some point, even if it's as the next incarnation of Bobby Scales. Tools are a bit short for an elite prospect. He only has 145 professional plate appearances and has yet to play in a full season league. He'll go to Kane County this year, but right now he's a guy who's an all around good talent, but has done little to nothing.
Jorge Soler: 9F. Tools and potential are a bit below Baez given his defensive position but his absolute upside is a guy who hits .300 with 40 HR most years, which puts him in the 'perennial all-star' conversation. He has more power potential, speed and raw athleticism than anyone else in the farm system except for the next guy on the list (the power part). Maybe even the entire organization, MLB included. Again, he's at a pretty critical juncture that could see his letter rating improve significantly by the end of the year, or his number rating drop. Due to the small sample and low levels he's performed at, he still has a long way to go and can therefore drop considerably. It would be easy to rate Soler higher than Baez, but the fact that Baez can play SS gives him the edge.
Dan Vogelbach: 8.5E. I'm giving him a better letter grade than Soler due to his approach and his outlier power. Vogelbach's power potential is off the charts and he's shown great plate discipline too. It's tough to give a guy who hasn't gotten past Boise that good of a letter, but at the same time, it's tough for me to envision that Vogelbach has a floor lower than Brad Nelson, who I think is a pretty solid 3.5 now that the dust has settled.
Brett Jackson: 7C. He could still sniff Mike Cameron's career arc, and even if he doesn't I think he's all but sure to catch on as a fifth OF for someone as long as he's cost controlled. He had his worst season at AAA, but still had a 107 wRC+. Even in his worst minor league season, he was a better than average hitter and played a premium position. He'll have to cut down on the strikeouts, but this is still a guy who has fringe all-star potential. ZiPS has him at 2.5 fWAR this season and Oliver at 1.9 fWAR. His strikeouts prevent him from being an elite talent, but Jackson still has an MLB career ahead of him.
Gioskar Amaya: 8F. Could wind up as an 8.5 with another year under his belt by dint of playing a middle infield position. He's shifted from SS to 2nd, plays above average defense, but without outlier tools it's tough to consider him a sure-fire bet to hit the bigs at his age.
Arismendy Alcantara: 7.5E. That optimistic upside rating is based on his developing power and playing SS. Could be lower. Letter grade is a shade better than those above him due to his experience at the mid-minors level and lower ceiling. The numbers aren't eye-popping or anything, but he was in the middle of a really good year in a pitcher's league before getting injured. If the improvement from last year is real, he's more of a sure thing than Amaya. The potential is there as he showed more power a year ago, but we'll know more this year.
Jeimer Candelario: 6D. Does not seem like he has all-star upside (for the sake of comparison, he has 6 HR in 310 PA at A-, and Vogelbach hit 10 in 168). Candelario just finished his age 18 season and he played the entire season from July until the end in Boise. He has age on his side, but right now the numbers just don't support someone who is going to be able to hit like a traditional 3rd baseman.
Logan Watkins: 6C. As with Jackson, looks a good bet to catch on as a utilityman somewhere. Upside of blossoming into Jose Hernandez with less bat and more glove not particularly inspiring, though. Another decent comp might be Todd Walker than was mentioned in the comments here recently. He has plate discipline, bats left handed and plays up the middle, which are all the reasons why he's likely to play at the MLB level for at least a few years.
Dave Sappelt: 5.5C. Can play CF, and if the on-base skills he showed in a small number of ABs in 2012 are real, he could be useful. If he hits like he did at Iowa last year, he will not be useful. He has a passable walk rate and a low strikeout rate. He also wins the award for looking like the smallest player I had ever seen on tv during an Iowa Cubs game. From a distance, he looked his size could match that of any 12 year old in Des Moines.
Marco Hernandez: 6.5E. Has shown flashes of gap power but has a long way to develop. Apparent ability to stick at SS makes him a legit top-list prospect until he completely stops hitting. His BABIP has been high in the low minors and at A ball he was exposed for his free swinging ways. His strikeout rate went through the roof and only had an OK walk rate.
Christian Villanueva: 6.5D. Consistent power and on-base skills promising in the low minors, though he's not been young at any stop. Needs to show an upward arc this year to justify his upside rating, perhaps by improving his hit tool or making the climb to being a 25 HR-type of guy. He reminds me a bit of Placido Polanco in that he might end up an underrated 3rd baseman. I wouldn't be too terribly surprised to see Villanueva at 3rd in 2014 and Logan Watkins at 2nd base.
Also in his favor, he was not blindsided by being traded for Ryan Dempster.
Junior Lake: 7E. Gap power and speed combo could play well if all goes right, especially if he sticks at SS. The fact that his best OBP to date has been .341 when repeating AA is a bit scary, though. If he doesn't take advantage of the PCL this year, there's a chance he washes out completely. You don't like seeing these sort of questions linger this long. Could be deserving a better letter grade due to his defense at SS. It's reportedly been MLB caliber for a couple years and guys who play good defense at SS, end up having at least a short career.
Matt Szczur: 5B. Has only performed well when old and repeating a level. His upside is limited by his age, though if he can add a bit more power and show the top end of his on-base skills he could be a useful regular. He'll never be a star, but his discipline improved last year. He struggled at AA and that's where he'll begin 2013. Makeup and glove make him a good bet to catch on as a fifth OF somewhere.
Josh Vitters: 4.5B. Last two years at age-appropriate stops in the minors were acceptable, though his value vanishes if he can't stick at 3B. Has already established value as a AAAA guy, so his floor is relatively high at this point. At the very least, Vitters will stick around the upper minors for awhile and maybe catch on at the MLB level from time to time with various teams.
2013 Cubs Prospects: Pitchers
The Cubs have 6 pitchers in their system that belong in the discussion with these 15 players. Unfortunately for the Cubs, most of them have very little professional experience, some of them have significant injury concerns above what you'd expect from any pitcher and they're mostly a very long way from reaching the big leagues.
Pitchers are harder to rate and/or rank than position players. Pitchers have a tendency to get injured. Injuries often don't heal completely and even prevent players from improving. Some of the times, they just get worse. Years ago, Baseball Prospectus came up with TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect).
Myself, and most others, even at BPro these days, would disagree with that, but it started for a reason: young pitchers are very difficult to project.
Dave and I ignored the inherit injury risk for pitchers with the exceptions of those who have already experienced them. If you didn't ignore this, almost all pitchers would receive a very low ceiling. This doesn't help us in terms of ratings the prospects. We can accept the reality that pitchers face while also sometimes ignoring that risk.
Arodys Vizcaino: 8F. There's a lot to like here, with two plus pitches and what appears to be pretty good control. It's pretty easy to imagine him being a classic front-end power pitcher. He's still young, throws hard and has been very impressive at the minor league level. His K-BB% was outstanding in the minor leagues and definitely indicates someone who could be a front of the rotation starter. However, he's recovering from TJS and we will need to monitor his recovery. Persistent arm trouble could keep him out of the bigs. We'll keep our fingers crossed on this one.
Dillon Maples: 8G. Second verse, same as the first, little bit louder and even though Maples appears to have a similar skillset as Vizcaino, a little bit worse. Hard throwing righty with a great curveball, signed in 2011 and has all of 10.1 professional innings to his name. Scouts haven't been too impressed with his mechanics and while 10.1 innings is nothing, he hasn't impressed them with his control. Still has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter, or a number 2, depending on which scout you read. Injury troubles this early are never a good sign. Also, he gets demerits for claiming on Twitter that the USA has the best national anthem in the world, which shows disturbing lack of judgement (or at least bad taste in music). Very low floor due to early injury history.
Duane Underwood: 8G. Another very live arm, but unsurprisingly lacks polish given his debut age last year was just 17. Among all the potential starters, he probably throws harder than any of them. He could get a bump in upside over Maples due to his easy velocity (said to hit 97 in live action) at such a young age, but there are a lot of questions with pitchers of this age. Won't really have a good feel for what he might be able to do until he has a couple of years under his belt. Could have 3 plus pitches, but all of them need work.
Pierce Johnson: 6D. Forearm troubles his junior year at Missouri State kept him out of the first round of the draft. The Cubs selected him with their first pick of the 2nd day. Showcases a good curveball and is fairly polished after three years at the University of Missouri. Ceiling isn't quite as high as some others on this list but I'd expect him to move up relatively quickly (could be in the high minors next year if all breaks right). He sits 90-92 and reaches 96. He only has 11 professional innings, but has good command and can strike some batters out. ETA is much sooner than the previous two pitchers.
Paul Blackburn: 7F. Throws fairly hard considering his age and stature, said to have good mechanics. His potential to physically mature gives him a slightly higher upside than we saw with Johnson. Still a long way off, so it will be a while before we can really refine this grade. Everything with Blackburn is projectability at this point. Scouts are hopeful his velocity ticks up some, which it should. They like his mound presence and polish. They think he could eventually have 3 plus pitches. Key word, eventually. The Cubs liked Blackburn a lot and he's more polished than Maples and Underwood so he could move more quickly through the system.
Juan Paniagua: 6E. Big arm, but unusually thin resume for his age. My sense is that he's basically the same developmentally as a first-year high school draftee, but he's 23 (supposedly). That makes it tough to imagine him as anything more than a bullpen arm or back-end starter as he just has too much to figure out. Raw talent requires giving him a fair upside rating, though. MLB lists his age as undetermined. According to documents, which can't possibly be trusted considering it's his third official document, he'll be 23 in less than a week and has a very long way to go. The Cubs signed him for $1.5 million so they really liked what they saw. He's currently having Visa issues and hasn't arrived in the US yet, which will only further delay what we know about him.
What if we wanted to combine the upside and floor so we could rank the players? This isn't something I'm particularly interested in. One of the reasons why I like this system so much is that it gets away from ranking and puts more focus on something that I think is more useful to us. Whether a guy is ranked 1st, 2nd or 3rd really doesn't tell us much about the player.
People do enjoy their rankings so we can use the upside and floor to create them in a more objective manner. Multiply the upside by 10 and subtract 5 from each letter below A. So a 5B player would be 45. Here they are.
Javier Baez 65
Jorge Soler 65
Dan Vogelbach 65
Albert Almora 60
Brett Jackson 60
Gioskar Amaya 55
Arismendy Alcantara 55
Arodys Vizcaino 55
Logan Watkins 50
Christian Villanueva 50
Junior Lake 50
Dillon Maples 50
Duane Underwood 50
Jeimer Candelario 45
Dave Sappelt 45
Marco Hernadez 45
Matt Szczur 45
Pierce Johnson 45
Paul Blackburn 45
Josh Vitters 40
Juan Paniagua 40
I'd like to thank Dave for being a tremendous help in understanding these ratings, helping me write this and for allowing me to waste so much of his time. It's at least his work as much as mine. Much thanks goes to Hockey's Future for the idea.
How much For a Win?
I was curious how much a win costs, so I crunched some numbers for last year. I based thin on Cot's contracts information with no idea how accurate that information is, but I figure it's close enough for my purposes.
team | league | W | L | payroll | cost/win |
WSN | NL | 98 | 64 | $92,534,929.00 | $944,233.97 |
CIN | NL | 97 | 65 | $87,826,167.00 | $905,424.40 |
NYY | AL | 95 | 67 | $209,792,900.00 | $2,208,346.32 |
SFG | NL | 94 | 68 | $131,355,298.00 | $1,397,396.79 |
OAK | AL | 94 | 68 | $52,873,000.00 | $562,478.72 |
ATL | NL | 94 | 68 | $93,529,667.00 | $994,996.46 |
TEX | AL | 93 | 69 | $120,836,000.00 | $1,299,311.83 |
BAL | AL | 93 | 69 | $84,102,333.00 | $904,326.16 |
TBR | AL | 90 | 72 | $63,627,200.00 | $706,968.89 |
LAA | AL | 89 | 73 | $151,381,000.00 | $1,700,910.11 |
DET | AL | 88 | 74 | $133,475,000.00 | $1,516,761.36 |
STL | NL | 88 | 74 | $111,858,500.00 | $1,271,119.32 |
LAD | NL | 86 | 76 | $105,419,833.00 | $1,225,812.01 |
CHW | AL | 85 | 77 | $97,669,500.00 | $1,149,052.94 |
MIL | NL | 83 | 79 | $98,150,833.00 | $1,182,540.16 |
ARI | NL | 81 | 81 | $75,417,833.00 | $931,084.36 |
PHI | NL | 81 | 81 | $172,093,902.00 | $2,124,616.07 |
PIT | NL | 79 | 83 | $51,932,333.00 | $657,371.30 |
SDP | NL | 76 | 86 | $55,621,900.00 | $731,867.11 |
SEA | AL | 75 | 87 | $84,928,100.00 | $1,132,374.67 |
NYM | NL | 74 | 88 | $94,508,822.00 | $1,277,146.24 |
TOR | AL | 73 | 89 | $83,739,200.00 | $1,147,112.33 |
KCR | AL | 72 | 90 | $64,001,725.00 | $888,912.85 |
MIA | NL | 69 | 93 | $101,628,000.00 | $1,472,869.57 |
BOS | AL | 69 | 93 | $175,249,119.00 | $2,539,842.30 |
CLE | AL | 68 | 94 | $64,430,300.00 | $947,504.41 |
MIN | AL | 66 | 96 | $100,435,000.00 | $1,521,742.42 |
COL | NL | 64 | 98 | $81,135,571.00 | $1,267,743.30 |
CHC | NL | 61 | 101 | $109,316,000.00 | $1,792,065.57 |
HOU | NL | 55 | 107 | $60,799,000.00 | $1,105,436.36 |
Avg | 81 | 81 | $1,250,245.61 |
So the average was $1.2M, with Oakland easily paying the lowest rate, $0.56M per win, among both playoff makers and others. Pittsburg was the most efficient loser (thank you Andrew McCutchen and cost controlling!) Tampa Bay and San Diego were the next two most efficient losers. The least efficient among winners were the Fuckin' Yanks(R) by a wide margin, with Boston and Philly leading as the least efficient losers (though not as inefficient as the Fuckin' Yanks(R)).
It might be interesting to look at the 5-year trend as well, but I don't have time at the moment.
team | W | WAR | PAR | WAR efficiency |
WSN | 98 | 50 | $80,534,929.00 | $1,610,698.58 |
CIN | 97 | 49 | $75,826,167.00 | $1,547,472.80 |
NYY | 95 | 47 | $197,792,900.00 | $4,208,359.57 |
SFG | 94 | 46 | $119,355,298.00 | $2,594,680.39 |
OAK | 94 | 46 | $40,873,000.00 | $888,543.48 |
ATL | 94 | 46 | $81,529,667.00 | $1,772,384.07 |
TEX | 93 | 45 | $108,836,000.00 | $2,418,577.78 |
BAL | 93 | 45 | $72,102,333.00 | $1,602,274.07 |
TBR | 90 | 42 | $51,627,200.00 | $1,229,219.05 |
LAA | 89 | 41 | $139,381,000.00 | $3,399,536.59 |
DET | 88 | 40 | $121,475,000.00 | $3,036,875.00 |
STL | 88 | 40 | $99,858,500.00 | $2,496,462.50 |
LAD | 86 | 38 | $93,419,833.00 | $2,458,416.66 |
CHW | 85 | 37 | $85,669,500.00 | $2,315,391.89 |
MIL | 83 | 35 | $86,150,833.00 | $2,461,452.37 |
ARI | 81 | 33 | $63,417,833.00 | $1,921,752.52 |
PHI | 81 | 33 | $160,093,902.00 | $4,851,330.36 |
PIT | 79 | 31 | $39,932,333.00 | $1,288,139.77 |
SDP | 76 | 28 | $43,621,900.00 | $1,557,925.00 |
SEA | 75 | 27 | $72,928,100.00 | $2,701,040.74 |
NYM | 74 | 26 | $82,508,822.00 | $3,173,416.23 |
TOR | 73 | 25 | $71,739,200.00 | $2,869,568.00 |
KCR | 72 | 24 | $52,001,725.00 | $2,166,738.54 |
MIA | 69 | 21 | $89,628,000.00 | $4,268,000.00 |
BOS | 69 | 21 | $163,249,119.00 | $7,773,767.57 |
CLE | 68 | 20 | $52,430,300.00 | $2,621,515.00 |
MIN | 66 | 18 | $88,435,000.00 | $4,913,055.56 |
COL | 64 | 16 | $69,135,571.00 | $4,320,973.19 |
CHC | 61 | 13 | $97,316,000.00 | $7,485,846.15 |
HOU | 55 | 7 | $48,799,000.00 | $6,971,285.71 |
Avg | 81 | $3,097,489.97 |
Taking some liberties with terminology here, "WAR" is simply WINS-48 (what a replacement team might produce) ane PAR is Payroll above Replacement (payroll – $12M, an estimate of what a replacement team might cost). Bean now looks like an even bigger genius, and Sori an even bigger albatross.
The Way We Were – A look back at Jeimer Candelario in 2012
Jeimer Candelario was part of the Super Boise team and one of my favorite breakout threats for 2013. Candelario just turned 19 so he played his first full US season as an 18 year old and one of the youngest players in the NWL.
Candelario was an overslot signing a few years back inking for around 500,000. He was born in Brooklyn but moved to the DR where he was signed by the Cubs. I seem to recall BA saying he had first round talent and it certainly showed in the DSL 2 league he played in during the 2011 season.
As a 17 year old Candelario posted a .921 OPS and walked more (50) times than he struck out (42). Based on that the Cubs decided to be aggressive and promoted him right past AZL and sent him to Idaho to man the 3B position.
He started the year in a big way tearing up the NWL to the tune of a .339/.391/.576. He hit 4 of his 6 HR's that month and Baseball America ran a nice feature on him. Unfortunately his season cooled after that as he posted a sub .700 OPS the next two months.
However, while his BA and power dropped off he still maintained a decent OBP which is a nice thing to see from any Cub prospect let alone a guy making the jump to pro ball and being young for the level. His defense at 3B isn't great and he's really going to have to work to stay there but I'll take a wRC+ of 113 any day.
Look for Candelario to move on to Peoria next season along with Gioskar Amaya, Marco Hernandez, Dan Vogelbach and Albert Almora. John Sickels had this guy rated way too low (15th) in my opinion and when dmick or the artist formerly known as MB21 get together to make our new top 20 prospect list Candelario will be a top 10 guy for sure.
John Sickels Ranks the Cubs Top 20
Over at his minor league ball blog.
Overall, I agree with his analysis that the Cubs system took a major step forward last year with the bats. I'm not as high on Baez as he is but much higher on Candelario. Our pitching is….. Well it's something.