Author: Rice Cube

Eat at Arby’s: Or Just a Quick Look at the Cubs Arbitration Guys

This Friday is the Cubs Convention, and also happens to be the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit their salary figures for 2023 (other key dates remain but this is probably the biggest one coming up). The gist is that if they can’t come to a compromise, the team submits one number, the player submits another, and then sometime in February before Spring Training gets into full swing, both sides meet in front of an arbitrator where the team says how much the player sucks and doesn’t deserve their number. Since the Cubs are a file-and-trial club these days, with very few exceptions (such as with former Cubs All-Star Willson Contreras, who I still think they should have kept around), they will go to arbitration if a compromise isn’t announced sometime Friday.

As luck would have it, the fine folks at MLBTR have their remarkably quite accurate arbitration projections for every eligible player, including the Cubs (some of these names we won’t care about because they’re gone):

Cubs (10)

Of these, Ortega was non-tendered and is going to the Yankees on a minor league deal. The group of Brault, Mills, and Franmil Reyes were outrighted but elected free agency. Wieck got a two-year minor league deal to continue rehabbing his injury with the Cubs, while Wick without the E got a deal just above his MLBTR projection.

This leaves Happ, Hoerner, Codi Heuer, and Nick Madrigal. Heuer of course is still rehabbing his Tommy John surgery while Madrigal is hopefully recovering from the myriad injuries that have plagued him throughout his career, the latest of which was the groin pull that ended his 2022. The expectation is that Heuer will be a boost to the bullpen once he fully recovers, but with the signing of Dansby Swanson and the acquisition of numerous utility guys this offseason, Madrigal might be trade bait, although I think if he’s ever healthy, his high contact bat (allegedly) might be useful as a bench option. It could go either way.

Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are two Gold Glove-caliber defenders who hit well last season as rare bright spots in an otherwise lost season. Logically, they are the subject of extension speculation, as Happ will be entering free agency shy of age 30 and Nico is still quite young as well. I’ve written before about how Happ should stick around, but the prevailing thought is that with next offseason’s relatively weak free agent class and the fact that Happ is the Cubs union representative, he is going to have to be wowed to forgo free agency. The other consideration, of course, is inflation and the eye-popping contracts that were thrown around this offseason for elite shortstops and outfielders. While we can’t really call Nico or Happ “elite” with a straight face, there is a market for solidly good position players, and the Cubs will have to open up their purse-strings a bit to get any extensions done, as with a “normal” offseason this time around, they might really just go full file-and-trial, so the clock is ticking. Ideally they’ll just agree to an arbitration salary so they can negotiate between now and the spring training report date (probably around Valentine’s Day) to get the extension done if both sides, as indicated previously, are serious about keeping the relationship going. For Happ and Hoerner, at least, the Cubs will have to pay up because there’s little room for team friendliness these days.

The Calm Before the Storm

I haven’t written anything since last year (technically true), but there hasn’t been much going on regarding the Cubs anyway aside from a few anticipated DFAs to allow the reported signings to become official. In the meanwhile, like many of us who are bored out of their minds, I’ve been reading the slow drips of news that have come out during the holidays and I’ve also been playing an unreasonable amount of Angry Birds.

While destroying tens of thousands of cartoon pigs with excessive animated violence, because I have the free version of Angry Birds 2, I’ve had to sit through countless ads every few levels that are begging me to download other games or buy a new car, and of course the in-game popups that ask me to spend actual cash on extra add-ons for my birds. Since I’m not a huge fan of parting with my money unless it’s for necessities or LEGO, I pass on the microtransactions, but the ads are really infuriating. For the most part, the ads are portraying gameplay of these other games they want you to download and play, except they’re being played by someone with a negative IQ because they’re almost deliberately inept with their strategies. This is obviously on purpose because they want you to get so exasperated that you say, “You know what, I’m going to get this because I know how to do it so much better!” Out of general principle, I won’t download those games because 1) I don’t have time for another addiction and 2) they’ve pissed me off and don’t deserve my support, but I can see how such an advertising campaign could work very effectively.

This isn’t a smooth transition, but like when I get sucked into a Wikipedia wormhole, my train of thought shifted to the Cubs and how they’ve taken the shell of their former championship caliber club and started building up again. Synergizing the hopes and positive energies and narrative from the team itself, its beat writers, and the various denizens of the fan community, we are being sold on a window that is hopefully opening, although the early projections and my own not-so-empirical perception is that this team is probably going to be in third place absent some extra creative moves (free agency isn’t it anymore at this time) and disproportionately good fortune. The realistic hope is that the Cubs are going to be at least competitive in 2023 with a real move toward 2024 as a true contender, but just like we shouldn’t accept playing mobile games with the experience level of a lemur, I don’t think we should accept “third place on paper” just because they’re on the way up and building for 2024. I won’t rehash that since we’ve talked about it before, but we’ll blame Angry Birds for me even talking about it in passing.

We are a few days from the first Cubs Convention in years, and I hope the superfans and reporters attending ask some tough questions that elicit some responses that we can use to continue holding the team leadership accountable for a product we actually want to spend on. For now, especially since the Giants aren’t signing Carlos Correa anyway, I probably won’t spend more than the one Cubs @ SF game I go to each season since I came back to California. I hope for some cool trades or other indications that the Cubs are serious about not wasting 2023.

Cubs New Year’s Resolutions for 2023 and Beyond

Well, well, here we are at the end of 2022, and it’s been fun to hang out with all you jabronis here at Obstructed View, very much appreciate you letting me rant on a semi-regular basis about the Cubs and baseball. The Cubs, of course, have done what they could and/or wanted to since they missed out on a bunch of the big names earlier in the offseason, but they apparently have a plan and are sticking to it. While normally I’d say we should take a wait and see approach, I think that they can still do a bit more if they wanted to (and they probably should), and we’ll tackle the rumors and stuff after the new year when something more concrete comes out. So I present to you some resolutions that they should make and hopefully keep to actually sustain a run of success this time.

Get Good Players

Whether you agree with the deal or not, getting Dansby Swanson was by default an upgrade to the roster, so the Cubs are starting to do the thing where they get capable players who at least raised the floor of this club as currently constructed to .500 or so. The bargain bin list I did earlier can help them bolster the club some more, although I guess allegedly whatever money they don’t spend rolls over, or at least you hope it gets deployed at midseason trade time. The point is that the Cubs should not use the minor league lightning-in-a-bottle approach to fill the roster anymore, they need actual established good players, and that means they need to spend (although again there’s not much left to spend on this offseason, so this is probably something they need to do next offseason).

Keep Your Good Players

This is something that has frustrated me since the great sell-off over the past couple seasons where the 2016 championship core was left to rot and then we lost our most recent set of heroes. With the farm system on the uptick again, and a reorganization of the coaching structure, my hope is that the high-impact players see their skills and potential maximized, and are put in the best position to succeed for more than just their arbitration years.

In addition, just like Atlanta has done with seemingly every single one of their homegrown players, give out some extensions to the good ones already on the team! Continuity in personnel is good for any organization, and it also helps fans, even me, connect better with their favorite team if they know someone is going to be around for a long time.

Don’t Waste Opportunities

As Theo Epstein once said, every season is sacred, and with a team that we can see is on the rise, let’s hope the Cubs continue to give David Ross and friends everything they need to surprise this year and go full juggernaut next year. Brett compiled some media speculation that Rafael Devers might be a Cubs target, and while that might seem far-fetched, it’s no more outlandish than us pondering a Shohei Ohtani trade or our early offseason wishlist for every good player. With this shitpile of a division, the Cubs have annual opportunities to get to the postseason, and it is very frustrating to see them squandered. I kind of get that this year is another transition-type year where contention is within grasp, but they don’t have any excuses next year. Give me something I want to actually throw my money at.

Happy New Year, jabronis.

Diving Into the Bargain Bin

The Cubs have probably finished building their roster via free agency for the most part, and we covered the biggest signing plus the basic plan for 2023 in our last podcast. Based on the official signings and Cots Contracts, the Cubs still have about $20MM to spend (if they choose to) before they hit the first luxury tax threshold, but I doubt they will splurge, barring a surprise Carlos Correa pillow contract because his ankle bone isn’t connected to his leg bone or whatever. I thought I’d check out the free agent list and see if there was anyone else worth grabbing before the Cubs pivot to trades to round out the roster before spring training.

What the Cubs Don’t Absolutely Need

Based on the plan in place at this time, the Cubs don’t need the following (but an upgrade is obviously always nice if they can swing it!):

  • Catcher: The Cubs’ tandem of Tucker Barnhart and Yan Gomes is pretty much set for all glove, minimal bat
  • Middle Infield: Expecting Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson to gobble up anything hit their way
  • Outfield: From left to right, Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki most likely eat up the majority of the available playing time
  • Pitching: Starting rotation is pretty much set with Marcus Stroman as the headliner and no obvious ace-level pitchers still available, similarly with the bullpen now that the top relievers are gone

I’m also going to assume the Cubs can fill a bench from in-house options so they probably won’t spend too much for that.

Who the Cubs Should Probably Try to Get

By process of elimination, this means the Cubs will focus mostly on first base, third base, and designated hitter, if they feel they can’t rely on Patrick Wisdom and friends or don’t want to put all their eggs into the Matt Mervis basket. The MLBTR list has names, but whether those names are going to engender a feeling of awe is debatable. Here’s my priority list:

First Base

When looking through free agent lists, it’s kind of disappointing when you see all the names that used to be good, but you just can’t see them actually being good in 2023 unless miracles happen. That said, I think I’ll prioritize two names:

Trey Mancini – we’ve discussed him before and I think after Michael Conforto came off the board, this was probably most Cubs fans’ top pick at this point due to his demeanor and his potential residual upside.

Miguel Sano – I forgot that he existed for a bit, but he was good for the Twins for a while (when he was healthy, which is harder since he’s a pretty big dude) and then he just kind of stopped being good. I’m interested in any power potential he has, but I guess at that point you might as well go with Patrick Wisdom.

Third Base

I also think this is something the Cubs stopgap with an internal option, assuming Wisdom remembers how to play good defense, but after Brandon Drury went off the board, there just don’t seem to be any other tolerable options. The main name that pops out at me is Evan Longoria, who could be good for a short-term “prove you’re still useful” type contract, but again this is probably another spot the Cubs seem happy to punt until they get a prospect breakout or hope that Wisdom can make things happen.

Designated Hitter

I feel like this is not so much a locked in spot a la a David Ortiz (you wish), but just a resting spot to rotate guys off of defense every now and then. But if the Cubs want to throw some money and hope to catch lightning, there are a couple names that I was at least somewhat intrigued in:

Nelson Cruz – now in his 40s, Cruz is of course known for his prodigious power that has waned as time caught up to him. He’s kept in good shape for an older gentleman so I wonder if a reasonable deal can be set up to bring him in. It helps that he seems like a really fun dude.

Andrew McCutchen – speaking of a fun dude, and someone who is younger and also still fleet of foot albeit not so good in the field anymore, I think Cutch would be a positive influence on the younger players and the team as a whole. I really wanted the Cubs to try to sign Cutch years ago after he left the Pirates, but better late than never I guess!

They’ll Probably Stay Put

I think we should actually keep our ears open for trade rumors at this point if the Cubs don’t end up signing Trey Mancini, but don’t hold me to that. This current version of the 2023 team is probably going to be more watchable than the one this past season, but hopefully there is a plan to be slightly more than that, although that plan did convince Swanson to sign, so it could go either way?

The Cubs Night Before Christmas 2022

‘Twas the night before Christmas, including Chicago

Barely anyone stirring because it’s so cold

The Cubs had signed Dansby and young Bellinger

With hopes for a new ring for the baby bears

The plan was to load up on pitchers and D

To ensure the opponents scored fewer than three

As many batters put on other teams’ caps

What’s to be done to avoid offensive crap?

When over on Clark in the darkened Cubs offices

Jed Hoyer wanted this team not to be novices

Though folks normally would be celebrating Christmas

Jed was, as far as we know, still Jewish

Though free agent selection had dwindled

While the Giants, now the Mets, try not to be swindled

Jed still had money to make the team more stacked

Instead of the Ricketts blowing it on some Super PAC

With his fingers on the mouse, so lively and quick

Jed scoured the waiver wire for undervalued sticks

On several Post-Its he set up reminders

To claim some hitters who could handle sliders

A bench guy? A speedster? A random first baseman?

Perhaps a new catcher or a new third baseman?

If only he could just square up the ball

Jed might not have to trade Madrigal

Can he rely on Mervis to hit 30 deep flies

Or will that strikeout rate unnervingly rise?

Will Patrick Wisdom’s defense return anew

Or will he be nearly unplayable too?

The pitching is solid though without an ace

Though Marcus Stroman could maybe keep pace

Jameson Taillon will help raise the floor

So the Cubs won’t have to play with the humidor

The bullpen is capable of making leads stick

As long as they’ve somehow fixed Rowan Wick

Perhaps baseballs will stop being murdered

With solid assistance from Brad Boxberger

With Nico and Dansby and Cody up the middle

The defense hopes to make runs against little

A catching tandem with gloves but no bats

Can at least keep the staff’s ERA less fat

Though AC’s epic plan might not come to fruition

And most guys on the roster cost less than Yale tuition

Perhaps with some luck and bounceback years

The Cubs next season can allay all our fears

Although the Cards added Willy and the Brewers have pitchers

The Reds and Pirates are still at best mediocre

And with a balanced schedule negating the suck

Of this National League Central division of muck

Jed was fully committed to the plan

Trusting the process, no guff from the fans

He spoke not a word, and went back to his work

Aiming to deliver though we were such jerks

If we squint we might see a plan without reproach

But let’s take a wait and see approach

For now let us clock out for the night

Merry Christmas, jabronis, now go eat some pie!

Rhymes With Schmollusion

The Athletic (I think it was Evan Drellich) published a piece today about owners complaining that Steve Cohen is a rich bastard, and for those of us blocked by the paywall, this was the snippet that was being floated around:

It actually is kind of hilarious when we basically know that there are something like 20 owners (including the bottom herd that includes the Pirates and Reds and probably soon the Brewers) content to sit out the big prizes and just soak in their profits and revenue sharing dollars. I had a theory backed by mostly gut feeling more than hard evidence that there is a handshake agreement in place to depress salaries across the board so the bottom herd can just dive into their Scrooge McDuck money bin, and I guess there’s some meat to that theory now.

Regarding that last statement, there is a system in place, but the system is designed to punish teams for spending too much, not for spending too little. Along comes an owner who is far richer than the rest and who broadcasts through tangible actions that he understands the system but simply doesn’t care. Given the advent of social media and a better understanding of how billionaires (well, most of the owners are, some are a bit shy of 10 figures) have a fuckload of money and they should probably spend it.

All things being equal, if someone is going to be getting all this money, I’d rather it be the players I pay to watch. At least in this case, a guy like Steve Cohen understands this and Mets fans are obviously very happy, even if all these contracts go to hell in April. But at least someone is following AC’s guide to building a winner! And in the meantime, he’s having at least some of the other owners show their whole ass, and that’s good for some movie popcorn in advance of the next big CBA fight…

Welcome to the Cubs, Dansby Swanson

Yeah this is pretty officially official now:

And also out on the Wrigley Field marquee:

While the Cubs couldn’t swoop in and sign Carlos Correa too because Steve Cohen is a rich crazy bastard, this roster has a chance to be more respectable than the last one we were led to believe would also be respectable (spoiler: it was not, but at least they finished the season in a more entertaining fashion). There needs to be more additions, but the Cubs at least have changed the narrative somewhat to broadcast that they have money to spend and that they intend to compete in one of the worst divisions in baseball, as they well should. Now we wait for spring training and Opening Day to see what this team ends up doing and whether there will be motivation to add at the trade deadline for a change. Taking a wait and see approach.

Cover image thanks to Marquee Sports Network.

UPDATE: The Marquee folks have a bunch of these snippets up and I’m sure there will be a video soon, here’s Dansby on being able to work in the same town as the wife:

UPDATE AGAIN: Oh hai video

Cohen You Crazy Bastard

I’m sure you know by now, but just in case you just woke up, the New York Mets swooped in to sign Carlos Correa because why the fuck not:

In a shocking development, Carlos Correa has agreed to join the Mets for a 12-year, $315MM contract, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.  Correa had previously agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants, yet reports surfaced yesterday that an unknown issue with Correa’s medicals had led to a postponement of the Giants’ introductory press conference for the shortstop.  The 28-year-old Correa is represented by the Boras Corporation, and his deal with the Mets will become official once he passes a physical.

So he gets one fewer year than the Giants offered and a bit less money (I’m sure he’ll live), and the Mets payroll climbs ever higher and perhaps triggers an owner revolt to enact a CBA change that actually spurs more equitable spending across the league so the bottom dwellers don’t just suck up revenue sharing money (but I doubt it). Meanwhile you wonder why the Cubs didn’t try for the last minute Hail Mary, but then again, the medical mystery surrounding Correa might be a risk too big to take.

While the Mets are blowing half a billion dollars on payroll and luxury taxes instead of something like sustainable energy or ending world poverty, I guess it’s better than funding questionable campaigns, so go Steve Cohen I guess. Good luck to the Mets in their quest to survive the wild card round in 2023.

Allow Yourself a Modicum of Positivity

The Cubs officially announced the Jameson Taillon signing today:

It seems Taillon had a Zoom session with the beat folks that was also open to fans, so there’s a snippet here:

Taillon had a lot of nice things to say about his experience during the recruiting process, the excitement he felt with being able to work with the Cubs Pitch Lab and playing with the current Cubs and new Cub Dansby Swanson (I guess that’s unofficially official until they add Dansby to the roster), and just seems like he’s ready to have a good time, so I guess we should at least get some enjoyment out of this!

So I say it’s Christmas, Theo, it’s the time of miracles, so be of good cheer… and call me when you hit the last lock.

Where We Stand: Cubs Roster Reset

As you all saw the other day, the Cubs reportedly agreed to a contract with sort-of-consolation-prize shortshop Dansby Swanson, and now have a few more things they need to do if they want to at least pretend to contend. So let’s see what we’ve got!

The 40-Man Roster

If you look on the official website’s roster page, there are 38 names on the list with two spots open that are theoretically there for Jameson Taillon and Dansby Swanson, plus probably a few extra things they’ll try to do before all is said and done since there are a few fringe guys on there I’d prefer not clutter up the joint. The Cubs have officially announced the deals for Cody Bellinger and Brad Boxberger so that’s why they’re on there now.

Bryan at BN has a cool Excel of the organizational depth chart as well, but I’ll just stick with the 40-man as is until further notice. It’s here if you’re intrigued:

Tentative Roster Construction

I also, like many other denizens of the Cubs blogosphere, rely heavily on Arizona Phil to tell me what’s going on with service time and options and what not, so here’s his breakdown of the roster. The reason I mention this is because the most recent roster rules 1) cap the total number of pitchers on a roster at 13 (14 during roster expansion in September); 2) have a three-batter minimum (or ends the inning, whichever comes first) for each pitcher appearing in the game; and 3) the total number of times an individual player can be optioned to the minors in a given season is capped at five, so the taxi squad isn’t as flexible as it used to be, not to mention the 15 days they have to stay down per option. Note that there is plenty of pitching depth and I’m sure the Cubs will figure out some kind of rotation so their taxi squad guys can accrue frequent flyer miles or Greyhound points, but it does make things a bit trickier than before.

Starting Pitchers

We will start (ha) with the starting rotation, and this bit of news:

Assuming a five-man rotation with the occasional spot start, we can set up this order:

  • #1: Marcus Stroman (who shouldn’t be #1 on a contender, but it is what it is, I like him though)
  • #2: Jameson Taillon
  • #3: Justin Steele
  • #4: Drew Smyly (penciled in)
  • #5: Kyle Hendricks (assuming his shoulder works again)

The #5 spot is probably going to be mostly piggyback and spot starters so let’s take a look at the roster again to see the hierarchy (my opinion only with no actual research but I think it’s about right):

  • Adrian Sampson
  • Hayden Wesneski
  • Keegan Thompson
  • Javier Assad
  • Mark Leiter Jr
  • Adbert Alzolay (I think they probably keep him in the bullpen at this point)
  • Ben Brown
  • Caleb Kilian

By the time they get beyond Assad on the depth chart, either the guys below him have taken a step forward or something disastrous has happened. I looked at the free agent starters chart after Carlos Rodon came off the board and it’s full of guys who are old, suck, are broken, or all of the above, so I am in agreement with AC that the Cubs should probably just save their money.

Bullpen

  • Long relievers – Adbert Alzolay, Keegan Thompson
  • Setup guys – Brad Boxberger, Jeremiah Estrada, Mark Leiter Jr., Michael Rucker, Erich Uelmen, Ethan Roberts (if he’s healthy post rehab), Codi Heuer (ditto)
  • Closer-types – Rowan Wick, Brandon Hughes (doesn’t really give you a whole lot of confidence but they seemed more capable than anecdotes would show, plus if they suck probably just have Boxberger try it)

The 13-pitcher limit means 5 starters and 8 relievers standard, so let’s just go with the five main starters I listed above (pending Kyle Hendricks’ health, with the rest waiting in Iowa to stay stretched out just in case) and I prioritized these eight bullpen arms:

  • Adbert Alzolay
  • Keegan Thompson
  • Adrian Sampson
  • Jeremiah Estrada
  • Michael Rucker
  • Brad Boxberger
  • Brandon Hughes
  • Rowan Wick

In this you have the top three as long relievers and potential spot starters, the middle three setting up with Boxberger ready to close if the Cubs have no other options and Hughes and Wick suck. With the 13 pitchers locked in (theoretically, anyway), that leaves 13 position players to contend with, including some spots I think should be filled by trade or free agency. I’ll try to set up the starting eight as of today pending more transactions, plus a five-man bench.

Catcher

It’s no secret I don’t think Yan Gomes should be the primary starter, but with Sean Murphy traded to the not-Cubs and Christian Vázquez and Omar Narvaez (and Willson Contreras, sigh) signing with also the not-Cubs, that does not leave many solid bat options. I guess they could sign one of Tucker Barnhart, Curt Casali, or Roberto Perez, but each of them has their own set of concerns although I’m at least certain they’ll hit better than poor Yan.

  • Primary catcher (via trade for one of the Toronto catchers the Blue Jays don’t want, probably Danny Jansen, or free agency)
  • Yan Gomes as the backup

Starting Infield

  • First base – I know the consensus is they’re just going to give this job to Matt Mervis when he launches dozens of baseball into space in Arizona this spring training, but I think this is probably a free agent signing on a pillow contract (see below)
  • Second base – with the big signing we were talking about, Nico Hoerner moves to the other side of the bag
  • Shortstop – Dansby Swanson (my plan D but I guess the Cubs’ plan A all along)
  • Third base – in a tank year, you’d just have Patrick Wisdom over here platooning with Zack McKinstry or that new Miles Mastrobuoni guy, but this is allegedly not a tank year, so let’s say this is also a free agent

For free agent pieces that I might not object to, let’s look at guys who are relatively affordable (what, in this economy?) and/or who want a bounceback contract.

  • Brandon Drury – plays pretty much everywhere you ask him to, has obvious power potential that he’s displayed plenty of in the past when healthy.
  • Justin Turner – a bit older and probably lost a step, but always seemed to hit well regardless so maybe make him play first?
  • Michael Conforto – I feel like the outfield is pretty much taken care of (see below) but a rotation of the guys through those positions plus DH and maybe seeing if Conforto can also play 1B?
  • Trey Mancini – had a crappy time after his trade to Houston, but always seemed like a good guy

Starting Outfield

  • Left field – Gold Glove winner Ian Happ (assuming they do not trade him)
  • Center field – Gold Glove winner Cody Bellinger
  • Right field – Seiya Suzuki

Given those two Gold Glove caliber options and Seiya’s bat, this is as locked in as you can get.

Bench

I’m going to move Nick Madrigal (assuming he isn’t traded or left to figure stuff out in Iowa), the Mastrobuoni/McKinstry tandem (ditto re: Iowa), Patrick Wisdom, and Christopher Morel to the bench. They can even sign some bench guy but if nothing else, the Cubs system seems to be full of bench guys, so the free agent dollars should go to actual starters and these guys can just soak up service time.

So you can agree or disagree, I can’t tell you what to do.