Author: Rice Cube

This Generation’s “Mr. Cub”

While we wait for the World Series to start (and end) so the Cubs can finally do something to get back to the postseason, I realized a couple things that stemmed from the previous entry. The one thing is an extension of that blog, where it’s way more fun when the Cubs win, and that could generate far more goodwill than pure nostalgia:

https://twitter.com/Matt_Winkelman/status/1584955425996558336
Office gif: “It’s true…”

The second thing I thought about, given the Cubs’ reliance on nostalgia and tradition to have a higher attendance floor than most other teams, is that I would prefer more continuity with the players wearing my favorite team’s uniform. Such is the case with the late great Ernie Banks, who, despite never having played in the postseason, remains one of the most beloved (if not the most) Cubs of all time due to both his play and his personality. Banks also remains the most revered Cub from that group of Hall of Famers from those close-but-no-cigar Cubs teams, and the only one to remain with the franchise for his entire MLB career. I’m unsure whether any player will be able to claim that again, considering that they’re likely to be traded or sign elsewhere way before their 19th season.

The only Cub legends who could even rival Mr. Cub and also played while I was alive would be Ryne Sandberg or Sammy Sosa. Both also played for other franchises for various reasons, and in Sosa’s case (unjustly I might say) he just isn’t welcome to a significant portion of the Cubs fan base. It seems more logical to anoint one of the players who actually won a goddamn World Series as a legend even if they’re not quite Ernie Banks Mr. Cub level, but we’ve probably talked a bunch already about how this front office allowed that much talent to just deteriorate or walk away, and that does suck. Even second-tier but still obvious stars like Aramis Ramírez weren’t appreciated enough while they played with the Cubs to be considered. The obvious choice for our generation’s Mr. Cub would have been Anthony Rizzo, who had the longest tenure with the team of the previous core, and might possibly be a candidate to return to Chicago if the stars align (arguably he shouldn’t have left in the first place, but what’s done is done). And since the Cubs are unlikely to retain Willson Contreras, he’s probably not going to assume the mantle of respected long-time veteran either. It isn’t like they’re Hall of Fame elite level guys either, but that is obviously very difficult to achieve and so we might not witness a true next-gen Mr. Cub for a while longer.

Since this mantle is going to take a few extra years to materialize because, you know, legacy and narrative and all that, maybe we don’t need a Hall of Fame level talent, we just need a guy who was developed in-house to stick around past his walk date. That could still be Rizzo (if he comes back) or Contreras (if he gets to stay), but of the remaining guys on the 40-man who aren’t going to get unceremoniously dumped, I can only think of extension candidates in Ian Happ or Nico Hoerner. Neither guy is likely to end up in the Hall of Fame (but again, that’s already extremely unlikely for the bulk of players anyway) but could serve as respected veterans to guide the future Mr. Cub, whoever that is going to be.

This turned out to be a rather futile exercise because we are unlikely to satisfy the Hall of Fame level talent nor the franchise longevity requirements that a player needs to be considered Mr. Cub. I like Nico’s skillset on both sides of the ball and there’s a nonzero chance he turns out to be elite, but I don’t think we should bank on it. For me, I think my priority here is just the continuity of seeing a respected veteran who (hopefully) doesn’t suck at baseball staying around for more than his six years of club control before being let go, because that was rather painful when we had to say goodbye to Rizzo, Javier Báez, Kyle Schwarber, and Kris Bryant (even though I understand why they had to go from a baseball perspective).

We live in a different baseball business environment where free agency is very real and analytics is king in determining who stays and who goes, but I firmly believe that the Cubs, with their relative advantage in resources, can develop and retain/pay their guys to stick around. Similar to what Winkelman said in his tweet above, the Cubs have a good development pipeline, they have an obviously loyal (for whatever reason) fan base who wants to see more winning and is willing to pay for it, so why not churn out some All-Stars and Hall of Famers so the next generation of Cubs fans can grow up rooting for their own Mr. Cub(s)? Easier said than done, but in addition to winning, I’d just like to own a jersey that isn’t obsolete next year (which is why mine is blank). Although winning is the main business goal, I think it tracks well with continuity and fan engagement, and I’m excited and curious to see who may emerge as a new Mr. Cub in the next decade or so.

Do Something!

I think I want to see another few years of this version of the postseason before I start lobbying for one of AC’s fun ideas to change things up. What I am sure of, at this time, is that the NLCS was a lot of fun to watch. Even if I’ve been a little bored with three-true-outcomes baseball, when the Phillies, including former Cubs legend Kyle Schwarber, hit a homer, it is majestic and tons of silly fun. Besides missing Schwarber doing this for the Cubs (in the playoffs too would be nice), I’m also annoyed with the missing out on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. I know lots of people are telling me to get over it, which is fair, but I think as Cubs fans in this era, it is more than fair to expect a team that charges the ticket prices they do to invest in the product on the field to make it much more fun than it has been.

Don’t get me wrong, it has been periodically entertaining to watch the 2021 and 2022 Cubs, but it has been more than apparent that through myriad failings, the team that we enjoyed so much up until the tail end of 2018 was allowed to fall into disrepair (the jabronii and I talked about this in the most recent Dreamcast) with little apparent support from ownership to add or repair in a timely fashion. And seeing how much fun the Phillies are having, I also realize how much I miss seeing the Cubs in the mix. I’d like the 2023 Cubs to get back to the postseason, and I would also like them to learn from the lessons of this past core and avoid squandering all that talent and potential. As indicated in this article by The Athletic, there really is no excuse for the Cubs to make a serious attempt at improving the club, now and in the future. There are plenty of pieces to work with, both on the roster given the upcoming crunch before Rule 5 and available on the free agent market.

I think as Cubs fans, we should expect the people with the obscene amounts of money to throw some of it at the players we know are good based on their track records, whether they’re free agents like Carlos Correa, or extendable stars-in-the-making like Nico Hoerner. I want to avoid having to trade away fan favorites and allowing them to walk without a serious extension attempt, though it is arguable that they tried with guys like Javier Baez and Kris Bryant (I think a lot of the issues with them has to do with coaching but I guess I don’t have a lot of evidence for that other than my own feelings). I’d like to see the Cubs do something like what Atlanta is doing by extending their young core for pretty much the next decade so we can have some continuity to root for again.

I do recognize that a lot of folks out there are rationalizing the last couple teardowns in their own way, but I personally am going to hold the rich bastard owners accountable for giving me something I can root for besides the laundry. Despite the postseason being a bit of a crapshoot, given the way MLB and MLBPA are approaching it, we have to contend with getting a spot in the field and hope for some of the chaos we have seen from the Padres and Phillies this year. As has been said many times before in this and other forums, you can’t win the World Series if you’re not even able to get in the playoffs. Given that it is far more fun to watch the Cubs win than just sneak in, and the number of resources that should be available to this club, they should be shooting for the bye within the next few years, and our minimum expectation for next year is a wild card berth and a shot at some chaos. Obviously we can’t predict injuries and bad performances, but they need to objectively show that they’re serious about the long term contention that they promised those years ago, even after we got the one before we die.

After all, if I’m going to pay that much for a set of tickets and a crappy hot dog, I think what I’m asking for is reasonable, no?

The Still-Too-Early Cubs Free Agency Pitch

The postseason thus far has brought us plenty of fun and exciting moments and equally intense discourse, but generally, even if the best team doesn’t always win the World Series, getting a shot into the postseason field is the goal. So it makes sense to discuss how the 2023 Chicago Cubs will be constructed to pull off a purported upset against whatever iteration of juggernaut comes along next year. Or maybe the Cubs are the juggernaut? Who even knows?

The Math

I figure it’s a good idea to start with what’s available and what’s possible before the Cubs hit the first luxury tax threshold, and it seems that since they’ve reset the penalties anyway, they’ll be ok for a couple years if they elect to go nuts (but not Dodgers/Mets nuts because those teams really might go nuts). For that we have Cots to thank, as whoever runs it has a handy-dandy spreadsheet of salary obligations for the next few years. Per their math, the Cubs are just above $107MM before arbitration raises but including any eligible 40-man benefits and salaries, and are somewhere around $124MM below the first luxury tax tier of $232MM. My best guess is that while the rhetoric from the front office and the owner is “aggressive intelligent spending,” they’re not quite ready to plow way past that $232MM mark due to the escalating penalties. Because of Jed Hoyer’s parallel tracks philosophy and the need to eventually see what’s up with some of these prospects (especially the ones who probably have to be added to the 40-man anyway), the payroll will increase, but like I said above, it might not even touch that first luxury threshold until they see how the upper tier prospects fare. So we have somewhere around $100-$120MM to play around with, and I’ll let smarter people than I figure out how to dole that out as we explore some early rumors below.

The Qualifying Offer Bruhaha

Based on what I can figure out, the Cubs didn’t receive revenue sharing and also did not exceed the luxury tax, and their first round pick is protected regardless, so:

  1. If their only Qualifying Offer free agent (see below) rejects the offer and signs elsewhere, the Cubs will receive a compensation pick after Competitive Balance Round B.
  2. If the Cubs sign a free agent that rejected the QO, then they’ll lose their second round pick (and so on) depending on how many QO free agents they decide to sign.

So that’s pretty easy, with the Cubs picking 12th overall pending lottery and probably not worrying too much about lost pool money if they’re going to go for it (to some extent, anyway).

The Catcher

The obvious elephant in the room (not that he’s going to sign with Oakland) is Willson Contreras, who will be extended the qualifying offer (now valued at $19.65MM for this offseason) and is expected to reject it, and as far as we know, the Cubs don’t necessarily really want him back anyway. Of course, if Willson decides to just accept the offer so they can’t QO him next year and get paid the money, or to set up some momentum to negotiate a shorter term contract, I wouldn’t object, since the current batch of catchers realistically ready to go aren’t that good at hitting. Yan Gomes is a decent enough backup catcher and PJ Higgins had his moments, but it seems the Cubs could use a better defensive/game managing catcher if they’re not prioritizing the offense at this position.

The smart thing to do might be to pair Yan Gomes with a platoon partner, but the free agent list isn’t all that encouraging, with former Gold Glove winner Tucker Barnhart and only-seems-to-kill-the-Cubs outgoing Brewer Omar Narvaez available. I think both of these guys have their positives as game callers, so if the pitchers are happy, then that probably goes a long way and we can look past the (lack of) offense at the catching position.

Other Position Players

This is initially a WTF but then perhaps a “sorta makes sense” rumor, but the Cubs are reported to have at least some interest in cross-town rival Jose Abreu. While getting up there in years, Abreu has always hit well, gets on base, has thump, and probably would be amenable to a short term contract (and hide in the designated hitter spot every now and then) especially if he didn’t have to move too far from his old stomping grounds on the South Side.

Since Nico Hoerner is receptive to moving across the diamond if necessary, or perhaps the new guys are willing to move themselves, the Cubs are tied to the incoming free agent class of shortstops. Carlos Correa has been the main pick due to his still-young age, the bat continuing to do its thing, and the fact that he won’t be tied to a qualifying offer if he does expectedly opt out of his contract with Minnesota. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts (if he opts out as well) are a bit older and will carry the QO tag around them, but I don’t think the Cubs are going to care too much if Correa ends up signing elsewhere and they have to pick from the rest. If the Cubs are going to be aggressive, this and pitching (see next) are going to be their focus in most people’s opinions.

The Pitching

I suppose the dream here is to sign Jacob deGrom to a short term contract with heavy money if he opts out of his deal with the Mets, but the Mets owner is crazy so he’ll probably stay there. Drew Smyly did pitch for the Cubs this year but he’s more like a backend starter, so I assume they’ll throw him a reasonable short term deal. There are also scrap heap-type reclamation projects all over the free agent list, but if the Cubs were to dip into that pool as if they were serious options, then we’re obviously in trouble, so I’m hoping they just ride the success of the pitching this year and really go after a top-of-the-rotation guy. I guess there’s always the hope that Justin Verlander tries to get one last big late-career deal after a probably Cy Young season, but I don’t see why he and Houston would want to dissolve their relationship. I was also seeing that Johnny Cueto is a free agent, and Jose Quintana too (who is a mystery wrapped in a conundrum if you’re a Cubs fan, plus he’s probably recruiting Willson to the Cardinals so eww), plus a bunch of other interesting names should their current teams let them skip town.

For heftier commitments that might have a few extra years, I think if Carlos Rodon were to opt out as expected, he would be a primary target even if tied to a QO. Looking abroad, the touted Japanese starter Kodai Senga (sometimes stated as Koudai Senga) is about to hit free agency, and with Seiya Suzuki on the club already to act as recruiter, this seems like a sweepstakes the Cubs want to participate in.

I’m not even going to try to build a team yet until we see more rumors and actual deals coming closer to the Winter Meetings, but as the philosophy goes, you get what’s available and hope for the best.

Matt Mervis & Luis Devers = Cubs Minor Leaguers of the Year

This is a well deserved honor for both players:

From @Cubs

Given the power potential shown by Matt Mervis (who shouldn’t be Rule 5 eligible until after 2023 I believe), it makes sense that he’s reaping all the accolades and will likely get an invite to spring training. By that time the roster crunch should be at least semi-sorted out after the Cubs finish the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, sign all the free agents, etc etc.

Equally impressive is Luis Devers, who made it to South Bend and was part of the big push for the eventual High-A Midwest League champions. The B-Ref card kind of speaks for itself as he struck out a ton of batters and generally looked the part of a top prospect, and that suggests why many thought he would certainly be protected before Rule 5 this year. I guess I don’t mind either way, but it seems the Cubs should think hard about keeping him in the organization at all costs, so there’s an extra spot taken up on the 40-man when all is said and done.

Extra notes from Larry Hawley of WGN:

Way Too Early Roster Cleanup

Having just done a new podcast episode with our favorite jabronis (jabronii?), and with the Wild Card series concluded by the time most of you actually read this shit, I figured it would be good to take a look at the roster as it stands now and figure out exactly how many spots we can realistically expect to be open after protecting the Rule 5 eligible prospects we actually care about and jettisoning the roster guys we could just as easily forget about. I think 60-day injured list guys need to be added back to the roster after the World Series anyway, so the culling is going to be pretty bloody.

As was said in the pod, I believe most teams have a roster crunch issue anyway so there might be a chance a lot of the unprotected guys can slip through the cracks and stay in the Cubs system, but who the hell knows. Also, per the Cots trackers, the Cubs only have about $90MM on the payroll prior to arbitration raises and trades/signings, so there’s plenty of space to add, so this little exercise seeks to determine how many free agents can be comfortably signed given who absolutely must be protected from Rule 5.

Trimming the fat from the 40-man

You can hunt down the Cubs 40-man roster on the official team site or at Arizona Phil’s repository of way too much information (all of it good) on The Cub Reporter. If I don’t mention the name, just assume that they’re free agents (Willson Contreras), about to be released anyway (Jason Heyward), or just someone I don’t care too much about. Let’s do this in tiers:

Keep/Stay: These are guys who are auto-renewals, arbitration eligible, or on contract prior to opt-out that are obviously going to stick around because there’s no reason to get rid of them (we’ll get into those later).

Pitchers

Position Players

That represents 23 spots that I believe aren’t going anywhere for now.

The Maybes?

These are guys who are probably game-time decisions, they could be non-tendered and re-added to the roster after the chaos of the Winter Meetings and/or the whole non-roster/invite to Spring Training stuff.

Pitchers

Position Players

  • David Bote (he has a couple more guaranteed years and then I think they’ll just buy him out, but he’s got decent power if he doesn’t whiff and he can play a bunch of positions)
  • Zach McKinstry (I think he can be passed through waivers but feel like he’s probably worth keeping)
  • Patrick Wisdom (power is good of course, but that K-rate is scary)
  • Franmil Reyes (I don’t know if he’ll ever be scary Franmil again and feel like the Cubs could risk losing him if they removed him from the roster)

That’s 9 more spots, for a total of 32, so that leaves us eight spots to play with to protect prospects from Rule 5 and to sign free agents with by early December.

The Rule 5 Eligible Guys

I do this with the caveat that I have very little clue about prospects these days, and am only relying on AZ Phil’s list of Rule 5 Eligible Cubs prospects as well as MLB Pipeline’s ranking of the top system prospects. My non-expert rule of thumb is that I’m going to protect anyone in the top 10 rankings and then leave the rest to the whims of the baseball gods. I think the best news is that certain guys like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Owen Caissie, whom you’ve most likely heard of even if you’ve paid less attention than I have, are not Rule 5 eligible so they do not have to be added to the roster for a while yet. Please also note that AZ Phil has indicated the players who can be protected on the I-Cubs reserve list such that they may only be selected during the Major League phase, if at all (hope not).

Keep at all costs

Given their rankings and what I know about them, these are the prospects that I believe are locks to be added to the roster before the November deadline per AZ Phil’s article.

These two have made the most headlines of the Rule 5 eligible prospects in the top 30, despite Davis’ long time off due to injury, so these seem like no-brainers.

Maybe…?

  • Ben Brown (they just got him in trade, but unsure if he’s made enough of an impact to be seriously considered in the Rule 5 draft)
  • Kohl Franklin (his name keeps coming up in prospect write-ups but I feel like his inconsistency might keep him from being selected, also he’s only up to South Bend so shrug emoji)
  • Ryan Jensen (same as Kohl above, except he’s gotten to Tennessee)

The Verdict

Given the lists from above, we’re looking at anywhere between 34 to 37 spots taken up on the roster, with the remaining spots open to select Rule 5 guys or add free agents. Feel free to tell me how clueless I am in the comments but I feel like for someone who hasn’t really paid all that much attention, this is probably close to what most would say.

Oh You’re In For It Now

So Berselius decided it was a good idea to give me writer privileges on this website.

As some of you may know, my old blog buddy decided to shutter the old WSD site when we just couldn’t justify doing it anymore since neither of us could blog more than once every three months or whatever. Then ChicagoNow went offline so that meant our other blog site was done. Very happy to have a medium here at OV, and hopefully that means some motivation to try to write more assuming the Ricketts actually want to spend money.

When I’m not as busy I’ll give you some more new shit, otherwise check out this podcast episode I did with Harry around the lockout.