Author: Rice Cube

Off Day Cubs Math Before the Dodgers Steamroll Them

I’m mostly kidding about the title but not really, as objectively the Dodgers are quite good at baseball, but then again the Cubs have also shown some promise and given us cause to be excited, so perhaps it will be another situation where the Cubs win one, lose one, and the third game is a coin flip just as in the opening series against the defending World Series champs. But I saw this random tweet from Baseball-Reference and had a chuckle:

The Cubs have only played six games and those guys up top in Assad and Imanaga have only pitched once each, but I guess B-Ref needed content and engagement so we got it! It certainly is nice to have 0.00 ERAs instead of whatever obscene number Kyle Freeland currently has. This also motivated me to just look some stuff up on the 2024 Cubs so far. Yeah sure the small sample size caveats absolutely apply, but it’s still fun to look at!

Batting Average: Yeah, nobody should really look at this these days, but it’s still fun to see five Cubs regulars batting .300 or above, and of course that is totally sustainable. The Cubs are led by Ian Happ’s .391 which was boosted by his one bonkers game where he just hit everything, and followed by Christopher Morel (who is making contact like crazy), Seiya Suzuki (ditto), Michael Busch (who reached this with the Rockies series when he warmed up in the cold, ironic, don’t you think), and Dansby Swanson. In limited action, Garrett Cooper is also hitting .500 because that’s what matchups do!

On-Base Percentage: Because the Cubs are playing new Moneyball, we like guys who get on base, and it seems Ian Happ is doing that at a .500 clip. Including Happ, seven Cubs regulars have OBPs at .370 or above, and the team lead in walks is shared between Happ, Mike Tauchman (!), and Nico Hoerner (!!!) at five each. Everyone but Yan Gomes has reached base safely so far, so poor Gas Money is obviously washed and should retire now.

Power: The Cubs have smacked a few homers so far and that’s been fun! Even if we ignore Garrett Cooper’s ridiculous small sample line, we have Christopher Morel and Seiya Suzuki leading the way with two bombs apiece, and Morel’s regular-ish lead in OPS is 1.131 which is fun.

Defense: Ewww, six errors already. This is a bit more visual because of Morel’s early troubles at the hot corner, but I feel like they’ll give him just a tad more leash to clean it up. Dansby and Nico being sloppy is also rather unexpected, but I’m going to say it’s the weather and Texas being lame.

Anyway, just fun stuff to do on a Cubs off day while barely listening to this HR seminar.

Welcome Ben Brown

As you all know, Justin Steele got hurt and now a new guy gets his spot:

Naturally the Cubs will have their official social media tweet soon, but this has been confirmed by multiple Cubs beat folks so we should expect Ben Brown in uniform sometime soon, possibly even tonight if he got to town soon after Steele got off the field and into the training room.

Brown, of course, was the return in the David Robertson trade, and had impressed in the minors prior to his untimely injury right around when the Cubs left for London last season. He showed many bright spots this spring and there was an outside shot he would make the Opening Day roster, but now he gets his cup of coffee just two games into 2024.

The fact that they called him up right away instead of massaging some optionable moves suggests that the Cubs want to keep the possibility of Brown hopping into long relief as soon as tonight, and if they don’t need him, then he can pick up Steele’s next start. And although we like the Cubs pitching development these days, Brown is still technically unproven, so some restraint should be exercised with regard to our expectations even if we hope he just mows everyone down.

Good luck, kid!

UPDATE: The Cubs welcomed him too:

Nearly Final Best Guess Cubs Opening Day 2024 Roster

OK, so given the stuff from the last thread and taking into account what we’ve already considered for the just-prior-to-Cactus-League-finale roster guess, I think we might just have it this time! So while we wait for Shohei Ohtani (and possibly his new, vetted non-gambling interpreter) to read a statement or whatever, here we go:

Catchers (2)

Yan Gomes – primary catcher

Miguel Amaya – backup until he grabs most of the starts

Infielders (7)

Michael Busch – 1B/DH (though I guess he’s athletic enough to sort of play 3B too in a pinch)

Nico Hoerner – 2B (backup SS)

Dansby Swanson – SS

Christopher Morel – 3B/DH (can also play OF but I feel like they will try not to confuse him too much while he’s learning his new regular position)

Miles Mastrobuoni – backup IF/OF

Nick Madrigal – backup 2B/3B

Garrett Cooper – 1B/DH

Outfielders (4)

Ian Happ – LF

Cody Bellinger – CF/1B/DH

Seiya Suzuki – RF

Mike Tauchman – backup OF

Starting Pitchers (5)

Justin Steele – Opening Day starter

Shota Imanaga

Kyle Hendricks

Jordan Wicks

Javier Assad – probably here until Jameson Taillon returns from the injured list to start the season, then they can decide which of Assad and Wicks gets to stay

Relievers (8)

Adbert Alzolay

Hector Neris – seems to have some velocity issues and gave up a few bombs in spring, but veteran in spring training etc I guess?

Julian Merryweather

Drew Smyly

Jose Cuas

Luke Little – gotta have that second lefty, woo!

Yency Almonte

Mark Leiter Jr – who can also get lefties out as long as his splitter doesn’t suck


I’ll paste the official roster in here when it’s announced but this is probably what we will see come Opening Day.

Cubs Spring Training Pre/Postmortem

As of this writing, today marks the final official Cactus League game for the Cubs. They’ll do a two-game exhibition against the Cardinals, who are traveling west to face the Dodgers amidst all their drama, before the Cubs themselves head a tad east to deal with the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers.

Opening Day is just a few days away, and it might be a good time to quickly survey what we’ve observed so far in spring training.

Good Fortune

The Cubs may not always score, but they’ve amassed a winning Cactus League record (not that they fly flags for those things really), and more importantly, have avoided devastating injuries to most of the players who will hopefully help the team to a long awaited postseason berth. The chief injuries to note are with AC’s idol Nick Madrigal, who is currently penciled in to start today’s finale at 3B; Ian Happ, who played after a couple weeks off and now they’re slow playing him in case his hamstring isn’t all the way back yet; Patrick Wisdom, who has a back ailment that I can’t even make fun of because backs are the devil; and Jameson Taillon, who may only miss one or two starts depending on how things go.

I think we can be extremely thankful that Justin Steele still seems ready to start on Opening Day despite getting zapped on his knee by a comebacker. The only major injury is to Caleb Kilian, who had the shoulder muscle issue and will be out until at least mid-season which means another pitcher can snag his roster spot once the Cubs 60-day him. Overall, not terrible all things considered, knock on all the wood.

Good Performances

In their time on the field and working with coaches on the back fields, there have been many glowing reports of Cubs players looking to fly with the team to Texas. Of note is Christopher Morel, who has shown plenty of positives in his third base defense with the requisite learning curve errors thrown in. Seiya Suzuki has been blistering the ball all spring, his countryman Shota Imanaga has shown some nasty offerings in between managing his fastball to ensure it doesn’t end up 500 feet away, and various prospects including Matt Shaw and Ben Brown have given us something to look forward to come midseason or September. I’d say that there is no one likely to make the Opening Day roster that I would vehemently object to at this point.

Good Flexibility

There is built in versatility throughout the lineup, sure, but based on the fact that the Cubs are at the first luxury tax threshold (and effectively are over anyway once they factor in incentives and stuff), it seems like we are going to experience some ride-and-die in the first half and then hopefully reinforcements come the trade deadline whether from within or without. Jordan Montgomery might not be an option much longer since the news wire suggests he’s close to signing, but trades in midseason plus some payroll flexibility prior to the next luxury tax penalties kicking in will be possible.

Good Luck

If Craig Counsell brings some managerial smarts and magic, the Cubs can hopefully swing a few extra close games. The preseason projections show a jumble up top, and even the Pirates could make some noise if their prospects take a step forward, so none of this is a foregone conclusion. But perhaps the ball will bounce our way more often than not, and the Cubs can play as chaos personified.

New Cuts, New Roster Projections

One week until Opening Day, and we have another set of cuts that helps us clarify the roster situation:

Of note, and I don’t remember where I read this now, the emergency catcher situation is clarified as the two non-roster catchers won’t make the team anyway. Various outlets have reported that Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad will make the rotation. I assume some of the relievers will get the “try to get your through waivers and sent to Iowa” treatment later on. But for the most part, the roster that we tried to set some time back is probably what we will see, with some tweaks. I’ll do the update below, with positions and caveats included:

Catchers (2)

Yan Gomes – primary catcher

Miguel Amaya – backup until he grabs most of the starts

Infielders (5)

Michael Busch – 1B/DH

Nico Hoerner – 2B (backup SS)

Dansby Swanson – SS

Christopher Morel – 3B/DH

Miles Mastrobuoni – backup IF/OF

Outfielders (4)

Ian Happ – LF

Cody Bellinger – CF/1B/DH

Seiya Suzuki – RF

Mike Tauchman – backup OF

Starting Pitchers (5)

Justin Steele – Opening Day starter

Shota Imanaga

Kyle Hendricks

Jordan Wicks

Javier Assad – probably here until Jameson Taillon returns from the injured list to start the season, then they can decide which of Assad and Wicks gets to stay

Relievers (5)

Adbert Alzolay

Hector Neris – seems to have some velocity issues and gave up a few bombs in spring, but veteran in spring training etc I guess?

Julian Merryweather

Drew Smyly

Jose Cuas

This takes care of 21 of the 26 spots. With Ian Happ probably on track to be ready by Opening Day after his time off for the hamstring injury, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal in various states of injury, and without any confirmation on the others, we should expect three more relievers and two bench guys to complete the group that starts in Texas next week.

For the bench, I’m thinking in addition to Miles Mastrobuoni and Mike Tauchman mentioned above, we’re looking at Dom Smith and one of either Garrett Cooper or Alexander Canario. Smith probably gets the nod because he is left-handed, and if they open up a spot, since Canario has options, Cooper would get the other spot.

UPDATE March 22 1:07 PM: It appears we have a significant opt-out:

It wasn’t like I was hard set to get Dom Smith on the team, but that makes things a bit easier as the Cubs don’t have to try to keep even more non-roster guys. My guess is Cooper and Canario get the nod then but we have a few days before they have to lock it in.

UPDATE: That was quick!

For the bullpen, it is possible that former Cubs legend Carl Edwards Jr. could become a returning Cubs legend. Daniel Palencia just got optioned so that’s out, but I feel like a lefty would be useful and Luke Little has looked good, so maybe he’s one? A lot of people think Yency Almonte, who came over in the Busch trade, will probably make the club, and then you have Mark Leiter Jr., who seems to have found his splitter again. I was going to suggest Hayden Wesneski, but I imagine he is super emergency starting depth and they have to help him fix a couple things anyway. If I had a guess, based on options and what not, it would be Edwards, Almonte, and Leiter to round it out. Kinda sucks that Smyly is the only true lefty in the pen, but I think Craig Counsell just prefers they get outs no matter which hand they happen to throw with.

One more week!

2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament

For no other reason than boredom, as well as just waiting out Opening Day etc, here’s this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketgall Tournament bracket:

Feel free to put your predictions in the comments.

Cubs Spring Breakout

The MLB Spring Breakout event is coming up this weekend and it should be fun for those of us who just want to watch baseball without worrying about who’s going to make the team, especially when it comes to the Cubs:

As you can see, the roster is comprised of Cubs prospects who are notable but have not yet made their MLB debut:

I guess normally you’d see guys like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ben Brown in there too, but it seems the Cubs are more interested in keeping them in Major League camp for whatever reason, which probably speaks to their importance going forward if you’re trying to draw conspiracy theories.

An Early Attempt at Guessing the 2024 Cubs Opening Day Roster

This stems partly from the news that has trickled in between practice games and this post by Berselius way back in the ancient times a couple blogs ago:

berselius: I don’t think the Cubs do anything else major (though A+ to Jed for patience), so here’s a stab at the lineup and roster 2B Hoerner LF Happ (S) SS Swanson CF Bellinger (L) RF Suzuki DH Morel 1B Busch (L) C Gomes 3B Madrigal And 26 man Catchers Gomes Amaya IF Busch Hoerner Swanson Madrigal Morel Mastrobuoni OF Happ Bellinger Suzuki Tauchman PCA or Canario? Pitchers Steele Imanaga Taillon Cyle Wicks Assad Alzolay Neris Merryweather Cuas Leiter Smyly Almonte

Sorry for the bad formatting as I’m on my phone and too lazy to fire up my computer, but for the most part I think B is on the money. This is especially true due to the reports that Craig Counsell has pretty much told Mike Tauchman he’s made the roster, and Miles Mastrobuoni is suddenly spring training Barry Bonds. It also doesn’t help that Ian Happ has a “let’s take it easy” hamstring tweak, which means they definitely could use Tauchman anyway and also could give some run time for a guy like Alexander Canario.

I won’t do a lineup just yet, but when healthy, it seemed like Happ was going to lead off, and Seiya Suzuki has been hitting second a bunch, so we will explore that again in a week or so when they’ve had more run time. I feel like Counsell thinks his guys need some kind of routine but is flexible enough to move guys around for matchups if necessary, so I guess we should set the over/under of different lineups used at 79.5, for which I might actually take the under but I’m usually wrong.

Anyway here’s my locks and bubble guys for the Opening Day 26-man roster, which echoes most of what Berselius already suggested with some minor tweaks…let’s do locks first

Catchers (2)

Yan Gomes

Miguel Amaya (who should graduate to getting most of the starts as Gomes rides off into the sunset)

Infielders (6)

Michael Busch

Nico Hoerner

Dansby Swanson

Christopher Morel

Nick Madrigal

Miles Mastrobuoni

Per Cubs statements and some of Arizona Phil’s musings, it seems the team is set on Busch playing primarily first base and Morel playing third base, which he’s done comfortably in his handful of chances so far so that I’m no longer concerned about any craziness. Barring injury, which might be inevitable for our hero, Nick Madrigal can back up two positions, Mastrobuoni can play all over as it appears is the experiment thus far in Cactus League play, and

Outfielders (4)

Ian Happ

Cody Bellinger

Seiya Suzuki

Mike Tauchman

Starting Pitchers (4)

Justin Steele

Shota Imanaga

Jameson Taillon

Kyle Hendricks

Relievers (6)

Adbert Alzolay

Hector Neris

Julian Merryweather

Javier Assad

Drew Smyly

Jose Cuas

This takes care of 22 of the 26 spots, and since the Cubs are most likely carrying the full allowed complement of 13 pitchers, we’re looking at a final bench spot and three additional pitchers.

For that final bench spot, it’s probably a dead heat between Patrick Wisdom (who has the inside track), Alexander Canario (who is at least already on the roster), and non-roster invitee Garrett Cooper, who would serve as a Wisdom replacement. If Happ needs injured list time to start the season, it’s probably Canario. Given the random off days sprinkled in to start the season, they might go with an extra bench guy, maybe, so that could mean Canario and one of Wisdom/Cooper gets a week to make their case to stick around after Happ returns. The Bellinger signing does make it very very unlikely that Pete Crow-Armstrong breaks camp with the MLB club, but if he makes it, I won’t complain.

Of the three pitchers, one has to be the fifth starter so that’s probably Jordan Wicks as B suggested, and he hasn’t done anything to suggest he doesn’t deserve it. They could even try to carry an extra spot starter to ease in Imanaga in the early going. The other two are relegated to the bullpen, and right now I think they keep Hayden Wesneski down in Iowa to figure himself out, and the other two spots should go to lefty neutralizers that aren’t Drew Smyly, who’s only here because he makes too much to just dump, and Smyly could still be effective in non-starting doses. I’m guessing if Mark Leiter Jr finds his splitter again, one of the spots is his, though it is possible they also give it to a guy like former World Series hero Carl Edwards Jr (currently just the NRI), though we must note that Leiter has no options remaining. The other is probably an actual lefty, among the NRI group that includes Richard Lovelady, Edwin Escobar, Thomas Pannone, and actual roster guy Yency Almonte. Almonte has no options remaining, so it is conceivable that the Cubs maximize their flexibility and try to convince some of these guys to stick around until their opt out dates or an inevitable injury, and that means the inside track is like B suggested with Leiter and Almonte. Nice to have a taxi squad anyway, though I guess not as many guys are optionable as I had thought.

I feel like some of the NRI relievers haven’t pitched yet, and Cody Bellinger himself doesn’t get into a game until Wednesday since he signed late, so of course all this could change pretty rapidly and that’s why they take their time with these decisions. Still a fun thing to do while we wait for Opening Day.