Author: Rice Cube

Sho He the Money

That’s a lot of reading.

I guess if you want to you can still listen to the Dreamcast we did before we found out about this crazy deferral plan. Or don’t, I can’t tell you what to do.

The “Deferred Spending” Plan

We’ve gotten to the part of the Winter Meetings where some news (like, actual maybe sort of legitimate news) might be finally leaking out and making the various beat folks confident enough to say that the Cubs are likely out on Shohei Ohtani (who’s probably going to be a Dodger but let’s wait and see) and Juan Soto (who looks to become a Yankee if they don’t screw this up). With Cody Bellinger possibly pricing himself out and no other free agents (at least those with a qualifying offer attached) that palatable (to me, anyway), the Cubs probably will work heavily in the trade market (another parenthetical just for fun).

I’ll probably look at trade possibilities and trade news as it happens, but the math from previously still works as the Cubs have spending space and money coming off the books by next offseason. There is a good core and floor to this team as currently constructed, which could be bolstered by quick one-year deals and trades, but what about that next offseason? And that isn’t to say they won’t do anything between now and Spring Training, as this division is imminently winnable with the Brewers possibly trading away their veterans, the Reds sort of stagnant even though they’ve added some solid rotation help, and the Cardinals doing whatever their plan is although they did add Sonny Gray to offset their other two acquisitions plus they might actually teach Willson Contreras how to catch.

Looking a bit forward, we have MLBTR’s free agent list for the 2024-2025 offseason, assuming nobody gets extended or decides to retire or go to Japan or whatever. The catchers (including Yan Gomes) seem like the type of deal to back up a still up-and-coming Miguel Amaya, so I’ll sort of ignore that and go for everything else. I feel like the only first baseman that would draw a competitive market would be Pete Alonso, although multiple Gold Glover Christian Walker could be a fun veteran signing.

With Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson sticking around for a few, it seems like the Cubs don’t need a starting-caliber middle infielder, but that shouldn’t stop them from finding someone for the bench. The problem is that I feel like even a guy like Brandon Drury would want to start, same with former Cubs prospect-turned-into-a-World-Series-title Gleyber Torres and super utility man Ha-Seong Kim. Would the Cubs just move one of them to third base? Or would they just sign an Alex Bregman, who would still be in his age 31 season at that point?

The outfield for the Cubs seems set for a while but that shouldn’t stop them from actually throwing some money at Juan Soto, and teach him how to play first base if necessary. That takes us to the pitching corps, and there are a ton of starters and relievers that would make sense and I definitely won’t go through them all, but that seems like a very good time to boost the rotation and supplement the bullpen depending on what they do in house. I suppose if it were up to me, and again depending on how Pitch Lab can churn out actual usable arms, I’d just let Pitch Lab fill the pitching staff and spend my money on some bats.

Whither TV Money?

There’s been a growing discontent over the fact that about half the teams in MLB may be affected by their regional sports networks crapping out financially. Even the Sonny Gray deal by the Cardinals, who should be a financially well-off historic franchise, is heavily backloaded, while the Padres are not-so-discretely signaling that they’re going to dump salary, among the other moves (or lack thereof) that have transpired so far this offseason.

I personally am still trying to determine whether I want to keep my services such as Netflix, (HBO) Max, and the like, and the main reason we haven’t canceled Disney+ yet is because my wife forgot and now we’re locked in for another year (dying laughing), but it’s kind of funny how at least one consumer (points thumbs at this guy) is considering cutting the cord after having already cut the cord. It kind of makes you wonder how much someone is willing to pay for the privilege of watching their favorite squadron play live (or at least two to three pitches behind the live action, which might be about 10 seconds after everyone posts their reaction on your social media platform of choice). With the bubble all but burst, MLB had to step in to help a few teams once the RSNs started falling:

A similar approach was employed by MLB in 2023. The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks were forced to find new cable homes in their respective markets in the middle of the season when Diamond relinquished the rights. Their games were also streamed direct-to-consumer. Fans had the option to buy in-market Padres and D-Backs games for $20 a month on MLB.TV.

MLB didn’t promise any backing for 2024, which might explain the hesitancy this time around, which may or may not affect the markets of certain marquee free agents (who may or may not play on Marquee Sports Network depending on how Jed and Tom feel about dropping some armored trucks onto doorsteps). I would also normally be cool with spending on MLB.tv, but considering the games that are flexed out to ESPN, FOX Sports, random other services like Peacock, etc, it feels like I should be getting a discount for not getting the full 162 (not to mention the blackout issues they haven’t figured out yet).

Anyway, it’s just something to keep an eye on as the Cubs try to sign Shohei Ohtani with some of that sweet Marquee money.

The 2024 HOF Ballot

So the National Baseball Hall of Fame just revealed the official writers ballot for this coming HOF class:

I can’t tell you what to do (or think, or vote for if you even had a vote), but for me I believe I would do the following, with hearty apologies to those who missed the cut:

  • Bobby Abreu
  • Carlos Beltrán
  • Adrian Beltré
  • Todd Helton
  • Andruw Jones
  • Joe Mauer
  • Manny Ramírez
  • Álex Rodríguez
  • Gary Sheffield
  • Billy Wagner

I can see a few guys get some token votes or the writers trying to strategically keep a few guys on the 5% threshold so they can look at them next year. Per Baseball-Reference, the ballot will get sort of re-crowded again when guys like Ichiro, CC Sabathia, and even former Cubs World Series legend Ben Zobrist hop onto the potential list of names. I do think based on their vote totals, Todd Helton and possibly Billy Wagner make it this year along with Adrian Beltré (maybe, he might have to wait a year), which would dump Sheffield to the mercy of various Veterans Committees. There’s a chance that A-Rod and Manny will just languish on the ballot until they drop off because eww steroids.

The HOF will announce the voting results on January 23rd, you can read a lot of words here.

Goodbye, A’s

I get the messaging from the A’s and Giants now ever since I used the Ballpark App to get tickets when the Cubs are in town. As you know, the A’s and Oakland have been at loggerheads for a while, and somehow they decided that Las Vegas was the logical place to go. I’ll have thoughts on this probably when we talk on the pod, but here’s the MLB release on the approval to relocate and the very awkward 2024 season that is sure to ensue as the A’s time in Oakland slogs to an unceremonious end.

Here’s the letter in its entirety without any comments from me for now.

Dear Fans of the Oakland A’s,

I know that today is a very difficult day with the vote by MLB owners allowing for the A’s relocation from Oakland to Las Vegas. I share a lot of those emotions – sadness that our team will be leaving its home since 1968, pride in what we have accomplished together on and off the field in Oakland, but also hope and optimism about the future of the A’s in Las Vegas.

Since 2005, when Lew Wolff and I bought the team, we focused our efforts on developing a new privately financed stadium to position the A’s for long-term, sustained success. From the beginning, I wanted to stay in the Bay Area which has been home to my family for generations and to the Athletics for over fifty years.

Even before we bought the team, it was clear that the A’s needed a new stadium, with the Coliseum being one of the oldest ballparks in the game and with huge repair and maintenance issues. We spent nearly all our time and effort exploring multiple locations in Oakland, Fremont, San Jose and then Laney College, the Coliseum and Howard Terminal in Oakland. For the past 2 ½ years, we also explored Las Vegas in parallel with those efforts.

I fell in love with the history and community around the A’s from the beginning of my affiliation with the team. I felt that I was in a unique position to succeed in building a new home for our team, which was critical to having a sustainable, winning team on the field for A’s fans. However, after the last 6 years of working on keeping the A’s in Oakland, the hurdles proved too great. We were unable to get a binding agreement from the City, with rising costs of infrastructure making it harder and harder for the city to pay for its part of the project, and organized opposition from maritime interests raising significant doubts we could ever get a stadium built.

In May 2021, MLB gave us permission to explore Las Vegas as an alternative market out of concern for the rate of progress being made by the A’s in Oakland. The need for a new stadium was reinforced in the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the Baseball Player’s Association, which stated that the A’s must have a binding agreement for a new stadium by January 2024 or lose revenue sharing. Despite our best efforts, including 6 years of work and $100 million spent on securing a stadium in Oakland, we came to the difficult conclusion that we would not be able to have a binding agreement with Oakland by the January 2024 deadline. The threat of a referendum delaying the process further confirmed that decision.

I want to thank the Mayor’s office, the Port, the City Council, the State, and most importantly A’s fans and our own employees, who were all dedicated to trying to make this work in Oakland. I believe the collective motivations of everyone involved were honorable and I appreciate all the work that was done in support of this effort. I also understand their disappointment and frustration, and the desire in the media to place all the blame on me and the A’s organization for the inability to make this work. All I can say is that we worked as hard as possible for 6 years to find a solution in Oakland.

To our fans, I am truly sorry. While I know that today is a sad day, I hope that it is also the start of a new and bright future for the A’s.

Sincerely,
John Fisher
Athletics Managing Partner and Owner

From the A’s email because they’re shitheads

Welcome Craig Counsell!

So the Cubs did their thing they do once every decade where they dump a sitting manager for an obvious upgrade. Here’s the intro press conference, enjoy!

Here’s our episode where we reacted appropriately to the news last week (dying laughing)

Dreamcast 77: Back on the Bandwagon Again

An Unexpected Hire

Presented without comment for now…

Probably more later.

Looks like the Cubs just waited until after that random deadline and pounced:

Craig gonna get himself paid:

And it seems it’s a straight firing for David Ross, bummer for him:

An Offseason Reset Before the World Series Ends

Depending on your point of view, because this is the last MLB action we will have until next Spring Training, but also because the offseason starts basically when the World Series ends, you either want one of the teams still in it to win in five or for it to go the full seven. This means the start of true free agency will come anywhere between November 6 and 9 (nice), and then we have the awards season, the GM, owner, and Winter Meetings, and probably a rush of trades (as soon as just after the World Series ends) and free agent signings at some point when the floodgates open after the big dominos fall.

The Money Situation

Per our trusty Cots Contracts and their handy-dandy spreadsheet, the Cubs have not exceeded the competitive balance tax threshold since just before the big exodus of all our previous favorite players, which means with this new core and competitive window opening (we hope anyway), they can afford to exceed next year’s threshold to supplement their team as Tom Ricketts suggested in his letter to fans. How much they are willing to go over the top remains to be seen, but they don’t have as much money as Steve Cohen and they also weren’t insane like the Padres were (before their apparent need to trim budget due to some debt thing I don’t really understand because I’m not an accountant).

What we can say is that the projected 40-man payroll next season is just shy of $191MM, but that includes contract options for certain players that are likely to be declined for some and to be determined for others, plus arbitration salary estimates that most likely will fluctuate but seem pretty close to what MLBTR projected. The thresholds are as follows, with the associated penalties:

  • $233MM Base –> 20% tax surcharge for amount above Base
  • $257MM –> Additional 12% tax surcharge for amount above $257MM
  • $277MM –> Additional 42.5% tax surcharge for amount above $277MM, plus highest selection in draft moved back 10 places (unless they’re in the top six, but that’s a 2023 Mets situation and we don’t want that ever)
  • $297MM –> Additional 60% tax surcharge for amount above $297MM

Suffice it to say I don’t think most of us expect the Cubs to balloon payroll above $277MM. This puts the Cubs somewhere around $40MM before they hit that first threshold, and $80MM before they incur that draft penalty as well. As for the option guys:

Cody Bellinger – Belli most likely declines his end of the mutual option and enters free agency. Belli is also the only outgoing Cub likely to get the qualifying offer ($19.65MM) and will most likely reject it to snag the Cubs at least their compensatory pick (which is kind of late in the order but it’s better than nothing), although they’ll do their best to keep him around.

Kyle Hendricks – There are varying reports on how close/serious the Cubs are in extending Kyle to a new contract, however, the option for 2024 is $16MM and the buyout is $1.5MM, so that could eat up to $16MM of the available space before that first threshold.

Brad Boxberger – (dying laughing) but seriously, it sucks that he was hurt which may or may not have contributed to the sucking, but no, pay that $800K buyout and thank you for your (lack of) service.

Yan Gomes – This seems like an easy pickup, Yan was clutch in many situations on offense and proved to be a more than capable game manager for his pitchers, so there’s $6MM accounted for.

Marcus Stroman – This is tougher to call, because on the one hand, Stro could probably get more guaranteed money as a free agent even if his AAV drops, but on the other hand, he seems to like Chicago, so we kind of have to pencil in that $21MM owed. If he does opt out, which I would not object to one way or the other, then that’s money the Cubs can then throw at someone else.

Cleaning Up the Roster

There are a number of prospects who are about to become Rule 5 eligible, plus you have to make room for some of the dozens of free agents the Cubs are supposed to sign, so let’s take a look at the roster (MLB, Arizona Phil, plus assume if I don’t talk about them that they’re sticking on the roster because they’re key to the MLB club or elite prospects you don’t want to get rid of just yet):

It’s OK if you leave/are claimed/whatever or the Cubs outright you: Depending on their status per AZ Phil’s table, some of these guys could elect free agency of outrighted, but if I’m listing them here, then I personally don’t care because theoretically they’re being replaced by someone better anyway. This includes Boxberger, Jeimer Candelario, Bellinger, and Michael Fulmer (free agents anyway), Tyler Duffey and Shane Greene (random guys for the 2023 Sporcle). Of these, I would not object if Belli and Candyman stuck around due to a new contract.

The tougher calls: These are guys that could be useful or that the Cubs may want to keep for a bit to see if they can tinker with them, but could very well be dumped without too much of a sweat. I’m thinking of the 60-day IL guys like Nick Burdi (fireballer nipped by appendicitis), Codi Heuer and Ethan Roberts (grrr, elbows), Brandon Hughes (I assume it’s a knee thing still), Michael Rucker, and finally Caleb Kilian and Mark Leiter Jr from the pitching group (Kilian more than Leiter, as the latter was sort of useful until his offerings didn’t work anymore). Patrick Wisdom and Jared Young are probably expendable albeit having their potential uses, and it’s anyone’s guess what they might intend to do with Miles Mastrobuoni and Mike Tauchman, though the latter two seem to be on more solid ground.

This results in at least 29 spots taken up on the 40-man roster, so up to 11 spots are available for the Rule 5 draft, protecting a Rule 5 eligible prospect, or signing/trading for someone outside the organization.

Flexibility

With upwards of $80MM to spend in free agency and plenty of prospect capital to land an elite player in trade (o hai Juan Soto), the Cubs have plenty of avenues to competitiveness to supplement the core we’ve enjoyed watching for most of this past season. MLBTR still has their free agent list for this offseason, but other than a handful of pitchers (including Shohei Ohtani who can’t pitch right away) and Cody Bellinger, it’s rather uninspiring. At least all this gives us time to think about the players we’d like the Cubs to sign, and the picture gets more clear when the QO deadline passes on 11/14 and we get closer to the Winter Meetings.

Championship Series, As If the Two “Leagues” Weren’t Just One MLB Anymore

And then there were four.

The division series this year were pretty lopsided and not the way any of us would have thought, but in retrospect, that teams that got bounced, despite having the better seed, probably should have done more with their pitching. In further retrospect, I guess you don’t expect so many injuries or that much ineffectiveness all at once (see: Cubs), but they just chose the worst possible time to slump and/or have their flaws exposed, so this is what we are left with.

Since the Rangers and Phillies remain alive, they can’t really say anything about money not working for the playoffs (at least, half the time here). And since at least one Atlanta player is accepting responsibility, I guess we also have to consider that the players should just, well, play better.

I’m sure some random somber and/or controversial things happened when Nick Castellanos blasted his two homers.

Anyway, the Texas Rangers are at the Houston Astros starting on Sunday, while the Arizona Diamondbacks are at the Philadelphia Phillies starting on Monday for the championship series. I think it’ll be a rematch of Houston-Philly from last year, but baseball has that silly habit of being chaotic, so we will wait and see.