Author: Rice Cube

Tom Ricketts’ Letter to Fans

Presented without comment, we just got the customary after-season letter from the Cubs chairman, Tom Ricketts, and we can analyze this later but the gist is that they’re going to do stuff to compete again, I suppose.

Cubs Fans,

This wasn’t the way we wanted the season to end and every year we miss the playoffs is a difficult one. However, this season, where we dug ourselves an early hole and then played as well as anyone in the league only to fall just short of our goal, was particularly disappointing. That said, we took a major step forward in 2023 and look to build on it for next season.

Let me start by acknowledging and thanking you and all Cubs fans for the unwavering support you brought to the ballpark this season. Your energy helped fuel the team’s performance and created an incredible atmosphere at Wrigley Field.

Baseball was exciting as the team showed historic resilience. This was the first team in franchise history to reach 10 games over .500 after finding itself 10 games under .500 earlier in the season. This accomplishment was led by a combination of homegrown talent and veteran players who delivered All-Star caliber performances and fought to the very end.

What also happened for the team this year was the emergence of a new core and a new identity.

Justin Steele rose as a contender for the N.L. Cy Young Award, anchoring the pitching staff and finishing with 16 wins and a 3.06 ERA, the third-best ERA in the N.L. Seiya Suzuki was second in the N.L. with a .349 average in the season’s final two months. Ian Happ posted career marks in RBI (84), runs scored (86) and walks (99). Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner proved to be the elite up-the-middle defenders we envisioned entering the year. Swanson’s 18 defensive runs saved led all shortstops, while Hoerner’s .283 average was second and his 175 hits were third among all second basemen, not to mention his career-high 43 stolen bases. The addition of Cody Bellinger brought power and clutch hitting to the lineup as he finished in the N.L. top-10 in average (.307), slugging (.525) and OPS (.881) while providing outstanding defense in center field and at first base.

Our goal is to win championships.
While we are encouraged by many of the individual performances this year, almost making the playoffs is not success. As an organization, we need to build on our progress and become a team that can finish the race. To do that, we will continue to be active this offseason to supplement our roster and look for contributions from our pipeline of elite homegrown talent.

Over the long term, the key to winning championships is consistently competing for a place in the postseason. While baseball playoffs are not random events, they do allow all teams a reasonable chance of winning. To have a team that can play October baseball on a regular basis, it is critical we draft and develop a pipeline of young, talented players.

Our future is bright.
Recent investments in our player development organization are beginning to pay off and our farm system is ranked among the top five in MLB. While the teams in the system were generally successful, including Double-A Tennessee’s Southern League championship, what is important is we are producing players who will help us win at the major league level.

After several years where we failed to produce impactful pitching, this season’s young arms made significant contributions to the team in both starting and relief roles. While we anticipate further success from our current players, we also see a strong pipeline of pitching prospects on the horizon.

With respect to position players, Pete Crow-Armstrong was named the Minor League Defensive Player of the Year by MLB, and the Cubs now have six players in MLB​.​com’s top-100 prospect list.

We respect our past.
Without question, we have much to look forward to in the future. But as stewards of this organization, we also have a great responsibility to this iconic team. It’s why fans from across the world come to Wrigley Field to experience Cubs baseball. And why we will never lose sight of the history, heritage and tradition that make our beloved ballpark such a magical place.

This season, we were honored to welcome Cubs greats Shawon Dunston and Mark Grace as the newest members of the Cubs Hall of Fame. We were happy to announce Ryne Sandberg would be joining Hall of Famers Ernie Banks, Fergie Jenkins, Ron Santo and Billy Williams on Statue Row. I remember watching Dunston, Grace and Sandberg from the bleachers, and celebrating their accomplishments brought back special memories that I know so many of you cherish as well.

Of course, no recap of the 2023 season would be complete without acknowledging our great broadcaster and the longtime radio voice of the Chicago Cubs, Pat Hughes. As one of the best to ever enter the booth, Pat was the winner of the prestigious Ford C. Frick Award. Now, Pat will forever have his place alongside the other Cubs greats at the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.

While the pain from our season finish still lingers, we know it’s time to move forward, and we can say with confidence that the future of the Cubs looks bright. Our experience this season will strengthen the organization, and we are positive we’ll arrive at Spring Training with an edge and the desire to finish the race in 2024.

Thank you to each and every Cubs fan for your continued support.

Tom

Tom Ricketts’ letter in email to Cubs fans

In summary:

  • Didn’t do as well as we would have liked
  • Will do more in offseason to improve team
  • Check out our farm system

The Postseason Continues

Four sweeps in the wild card round so no baseball until Saturday, but the matchups seem promising on paper. At least the various NL teams we don’t like aren’t moving on, and the rest can lose too.

The 2023 Postseason

This is the bracket:

The Cubs, of course, finished a game (more like two with tiebreakers) out of a playoff spot so they don’t get to play anymore, but this is a pretty solid field that should generate lots of fun for this coming month before we ponder free agency and offseason trades.

That Which Remains

The Cubs hold a slim one-game lead in the chase for the final NL wild card spot, just above the Marlins, who hold their head-to-head tiebreaker. The Cubs are also currently half a game behind Arizona, who also hold the tiebreaker. And somehow the Brewers still have not clinched the division, although it would be quite funny if the Cubs ran the table and the Brewers collapsed, unlikely as it may be.

If we assume the division is lost, based on the extreme unlikelihood that the Brewers lose every game and the Cubs sweep x2, then the most realistic finish is with the second or third NL wild card. We know the Cubs have to play three in Atlanta and then close out the season with three in Milwaukee, possibly the toughest schedule of the remaining contenders. At some point this week the Giants and Padres will likely eliminate themselves due to their head-to-head, and then it will just be the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Marlins, and Reds fighting for these spots.

There is some hope that certain bad teams with ok offensive game (Mets and Cardinals) could play spoiler, along with the recently struggling Astros trying to lock up their spot against Arizona. It starts with the Cubs winning both of these series if they can, but I’m not above asking for some help.

Two Weeks

I knew that I wrote something like this a while back, but I didn’t actually know it was from June, before the Cubs made enough of a run to actually get into buy mode. Since then, the Cubs have went on quite the run to get into the postseason picture, but are now unfortunately on the outside looking in, albeit not exactly 20 games back like certain other teams.

If you are consistent and emotionless and haven’t moved your goalposts, the Cubs have done basically what they were projected to do thus far, albeit a bit ass backwards given they were comfortably holding a wild card spot just a week ago. If, however, you have bought into the hype and the glorious potential of the team that did hold that wild card spot, then it is a major disappointment that they are at this point. As yet another counterpoint, the fact that they’re even this close for us to be frustrated like this is a blessing, and the good news is that there are two weeks left to do something about their situation if they don’t want to go home after October 1.

There is now virtually no shot for the Cubs to win the division, which may be good news for that final series in Milwaukee. Given that they are merely half a game back of Arizona (who obviously owns the tiebreaker after mopping the floor with the Cubs over the past two weeks), but tied with Miami (who owns the tiebreaker because the Cubs sucked against them earlier this season) and just barely up on the Reds (who owns the tiebreaker because the Cubs bullpen and offense both crapped out at the worst time). There are 12 games remaining for the Cubs, and a similar number for all those other teams, including the Giants (who the Cubs do have the tiebreaker over) who technically still have a chance.

In the immediate series, the Diamondbacks have to play those Giants, so some solid work from SF would be nice. The Reds play the Twins who are trying to clinch their division, and the Phillies are playing Atlanta, who is just three games up on Baltimore for home field through the World Series should they make it that far. They’re also 4.5 games up on the Dodgers for best record in the National League, with LA about to play in Detroit, so a beatdown of the Phillies might be in order after they failed to similarly beat down on Miami this past weekend.

As for the Cubs, we know the deal. They have three-game sets against the Pirates and the Rockies at home this week, and the following week must travel to Atlanta and Milwaukee to close out the season. 12-0 is extremely unlikely, and at this point the Cubs only have a 45.9% chance of earning a playoff spot, which is better than zero at least. We’ve gotten to the point where to get to the mythical 87 win mark that all but guarantees a wild card spot, the Cubs need to go 9-3. This requires essentially winning every series, and some help from the other teams. It’s doable, but the Cubs have made this bed for themselves where they are no longer fully in charge of their own fate.

In the coming two weeks, hopefully some arms can step up and eat innings, the bats actually wake up, and if by some miracle David Ross elects to play someone like Alexander Canario, he runs into a baseball or two because good lord do the Cubs need to find ways to score. The rules of baseball dictate that you must score at least one run to win a baseball match, and preferably more runs than the other team, so it’s just a matter of this team doing what we have seen them be capable of doing many times this season.

Strap in…or don’t. I can’t tell you what to do.

Fun With Cubs

The Cubs won another game, another series, are 11 games over .500, and have the tiebreaker over the Giants, having not lost ground in any race. Have some Morel bomb shots.

The Next Phase

Other than being the title of a pretty cool Star Trek episode, this coming week marks the next phase in the Cubs race towards extra baseball in October. As it stands, the Cubs stand 3.5 games back of NL Central leader Milwaukee, so they didn’t lose too much ground after an unfortunate (but ultimately acceptable) split in Cincinnati. They are also 2.5 games back of Philly for the top wild card spot and 3 games up on the final spot, so there is a cushion to work with should they falter this week. However, said teams behind the Cubs have all had their issues, which is why that cushion remains despite the hiccups with the bullpen and offense and possibly David Ross being a conundrum.

Let’s take a look at the week’s slate:

Cubs –> at home vs SF (3) & AZ (4); I’m hoping for 4-3 or better, basically they should avoid losing either series.

Reds –> vs Mariners (3) & STL (3); Mariners may be helpful as they are on a tear, but the Cardinals have lost some devil magic so who knows with them. Reds have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cubs so it would be best for the Reds to crash this week.

Diamondbacks –> they will host the Rockies (3) before heading to Chicago and I’m pretty sure the Rockies will be absolutely useless in that series, but strange things are afoot this time of year and the various Rockies playing for their next shot might not mind being spoilers.

Philly –> at Padres (3) & vs Marlins (3); the Padres just won a crucial series (for the Giants anyway) against SF before the Wrigley series so they might yet play spoiler some more, while the Marlins are suddenly one of the contenders tied for that final wild card spot so they should be suitably motivated to work over the Phillies.

Marlins –> 3 vs LA before their series in Philly, so maybe the Dodgers work them over since LA is still mathematically in the hunt for the top seed instead of their current second seed, either way the Dodgers are most likely earning a bye.

Giants –> after Wrigley, they’ll host the Rockies for 3 and as stated above, the Rockies are likely to be useless so it behooves the Cubs to win their series as they did earlier this season.

Brewers –> @ PIT (3) & @ Yankees (3); I expect the Pirates to be of no help and the Yankees did just sweep the Astros for the first time in a decade, but they’ve been trash for a while and the Brewers did channel the dark dimension for their most recent winning run before they ran into the Cubs, so if they continue to run the table the division may be slipping away, though if the Cubs hold serve they’ll keep that series at the end of the season very intriguing.

You wanted meaningful baseball in September, you got it.

The Critical Stretch

Well well, folks, another set of series that were not lost! At 69-61 (nice), I believe this is the first time all season the Cubs have been eight games over the mythical .500 mark. I’m looking at the breakdown and it would seem that other than that abysmal month of May, which somewhat coincidentally was when Cody Bellinger went on the injured list halfway through, the Cubs have been .500 or above in every calendar month, including 16-8 this August before they end the month against the Brewers at home. If not for the Brewers own win streak (and the fact that their opponents in that stretch have been absolutely useless), the Cubs might have clawed back some in the division, but we can talk about that soon.

The Schedule

As stated, the Cubs will finish August with three against the Brewers at Wrigley Field before a much needed off day, after which we will see the following through October 1:

  • 4 at Reds, including a doubleheader on day one (this ends their season series)
  • 3 vs Giants & 4 vs Diamondbacks at home
  • 3 @ Rockies and 3 @ Diamondbacks with off days after each series (but those are for travel)
  • 3 vs Pirates (ends season series) & 3 vs Rockies at home
  • 3 @ ATL and 3 @ Brewers to end the season (the division is potentially still in play at this point)

These are the 32 games that remain to solidify the Cubs’ position (or at least clinch that last playoff spot). The Rays snagged the final AL Wild Card spot with 86 wins while the Phillies did the same with 87 wins last season, so I think we want the Cubs to get to at least 86. This requires a record of 17-15 which is perfectly doable, but I tend to think they’ll do better than that.

The Cubs need to win the Reds series (3-1) to ensure they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. It would be best if they also win the series against the Giants as they did earlier this year, and also against the Diamondbacks, but those are likely going to be the tossup games. The nine games against the Rockies and Pirates should give them some cushion but as you saw with the “easy” schedule this past stretch, sweeps aren’t guaranteed even against bad teams. As suggested in the last Dreamcast, Atlanta might decide to rest some folks since they’re up big in the division and that would also depend on if they have a cushion against the Dodgers for the best league record, so maybe the Cubs catch a break. Regardless, because LA and ATL are so far above the rest, the Cubs will have to play in the wild card round pretty much no matter what, and the only question remaining is whether they’ll get to bat first or last in those games. Having to barely be above .500 the rest of the way is kind of nice, but just win and you’re in.

The Postseason Picture

The Reds had just lost their series to the Diamondbacks, and as of the end of the Giants game which they just won, Cincinnati and San Francisco are on the outside looking in. Miami is the next closest competitor, while the useless Padres are falling further behind.

In order, the wild cards are:

  • Philly (3 games up on the Cubs
  • Cubs
  • Arizona (half game back)

Then we have CIN & SF 1.5 games back of Arizona, and Miami three back with a large gap before you get down to the Padres who should be ashamed of themselves. This gives the Cubs some cushion, and as you saw on the schedule above, the Cubs will play each of Milwaukee, Arizona, and Cincinnati multiple times to get closer to the division and/or create separation in that wild card race. As of now, the Cubs sit four games back of the Brewers in the division and could end their series anywhere between a game back and seven games back. My hope is that they win at least one to keep the division hopes alive until that end-of-season series and to not allow the teams below them to catch up, but it might be rough with the Brewers big three pitchers coming to Wrigley, although they have been known to give up some runs.

If you were wondering about the American League, the division leaders are Baltimore, Seattle, and Minnesota. The Twins are mainly benefitting from the fact that everyone else in their division blows. Seattle has been on a tear and has leapfrogged the collapsing Texas Rangers to take over the division. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has the top wild card spot and could still overtake Baltimore, and Texas and Houston are in a virtual tie for the final two spots with Toronto and Boston being the only ones with a realistic shot to steal those spots.

September

I was way wrong about Jordan Wicks waiting until September and I’m thinking he’s up to stay for a bit since he was pretty good, and Drew Smyly has shown he’s trash as a starter, and Marcus Stroman is still broken. There are at this time two open spots on the 40-man roster, and at least one spot that could be cleared without batting an eye depending on what you think of Patrick Wisdom. The hope is that they can bring up a decent reliever (i.e., Luke Little, who has been fire and is apparently Rule 5 eligible soon anyway) or a bat (Pete Crow-Armstrong is probably easy money here). Coincidentally, the Reds series starts on September 1, so we’ll find out together. Again, Cubs just need to keep winning and they’re in.

Jordan Wicks Was Pretty Good

Possibly an understatement 👀🔥⚾️

He looks like he could help you with your taxes and will too.

Re: the now legendary mound visit: