Author: Rice Cube

Just Play Better

Seems the Cubs are sort of taking berselius’ advice. Despite some offensive hiccups lately to go with injuries to the pitching staff, the Cubs made out with a 3-2 home stand that probably should have been 5-0, but is better than the alternative where they completely collapse.

The Cubs currently sit three games out of first because the Texas Rangers were completely useless all weekend. The better news is that they are also a game ahead of the Reds in second place, hold the final wild card spot outright, and are within spitting distance of both the Giants and the Phillies for a higher seed.

The Cubs also have two additional games to play compared to their closest division rivals, one more than either San Francisco or Philly, and are ahead two games in the loss column for the closest wild card contenders behind them.

In this next week before the Cubs host the Brewers at Wrigley for Battle to the Death III, the schedule is allegedly easy since they face struggling Detroit (3) and Pittsburgh (4). It is highly unlikely the Cubs run the table against the Pirates in all 13 games, and since these are all MLB teams and baseball can be stupid, you can’t really bank on a 7-0 week. While 7-0 would be nice, I think something closer to 5-2 is probably more reasonable to expect, and anything less than that has to be considered disappointing or devastating depending on your perspective. Kind of glad the Brewers still haven’t run away with the division, but we’re now at 39 games remaining and time is running out, so wins are about as critical as they’re going to get.

Odds-wise, the Cubs playoff probability stands at 55% and they still have non-zero shots at winning the division and even scoring a bye. We can take a look at what comes next for the other teams this week:

  • Philly – SF (3) & STL (3)
  • SF – Philly (3) & ATL (3)
  • MIL – Twins (2) & SD (3)
  • AZ – Rangers (2) & CIN (4)
  • CIN – Angels (3) & AZ (4)
  • MIA – SD (3) & Nats (3)

I do not think I’m alone when I hope for mutually assured destruction from all those teams playing each other while the Cubs hopefully reignite their offense against some relatively soft competition. The Cubs should definitely take advantage, but honestly, I can’t tell them what to do.

If You Dare to Hope

The Cubs have some work to do, obviously, but MLB did just release the postseason schedule:

I think the Cubs have a good shot at snagging at least one of the wild cards, but if they can somehow win the division, they’ll still likely have to play in the initial wild card round. Unfortunately MLB still can’t keep the World Series out of November, but the last time the Cubs were in the World Series they won in November, so that’s okay if it happens again.

Fun to note that the Wild Card rounds are sponsored by a tire company, the division rounds are sponsored by a travel company, the league championship series are sponsored by a loan company, and the World Series by a credit card. Diversification!

Here’s a date-by-date breakdown by the Rays beat guy:

And here’s Boob noting the scheduled off days which should help NL managers set their rotations more optimally:

Here’s hoping we can actually consider those off days come October.

The Season Does Not End Today

The Cubs enter this week having won a hard-fought series against the literal best team in baseball. They also did, once upon a time, win another series against the current best team in the American League as well. They also lost a bunch of winnable series but at this point, if you look at the breakdown, the only bad month was May when we thought the sky was falling. Every other month (including this one so far), the Cubs have been at or above .500, so that’s encouraging. You kind of wish they didn’t take that long to onboard Jameson Taillon and Michael Fulmer, or that Drew Smyly hadn’t turned back into a pumpkin, or that Marcus Stroman didn’t try to pitch through his nagging hip thing, but what’s done is done.

As of today:

Via MLB dot com

By math, the Cubs winning percentage (which is a decimal but whatever) is 0.517857 while the Reds are at 0.51754, so that’s why they’re above Cincinnati. Note that if the season ended today, the Cubs and Reds would probably be in a play-in game to fight for that final wild card spot, but for now the Cubs have two extra games to play and are one ahead in that critical loss column. They also aren’t that far away from the division lead, with 50 games to play. Here are the odds:

Via FanGraphs

It’s amazing what a few good series will do, and the Cubs have been on a tear, per this Tweet or Xeet or whatever they’re calling it, and sorry if it disappears whenever Elon and Zuckerberg finally kill each other in their alleged cage match:

Since the Cubs are not going to win 50 straight games (although that would be fun), I’m hoping for three of every five going forward, which seems very doable given this schedule (with problem teams in bold):

August

3 @ Mets
3 @ TOR
2 v White Sox
3 v KC
3 @ DET
4 @ PIT
3 v MIL

September

4 @ CIN
3 v SF
4 v AZ
3 @ COL
3 @ AZ
3 v PIT
3 v COL
3 @ ATL
3 @ MIL (ends October 1)

While I don’t think the Cubs are going to run the table against Pittsburgh, that would be kind of fun and hilarious. August looks to be a much easier month, and the downward spiral for some of the Cubs’ opponents may be a good thing:

Putting aside the Nightengale curse, and the fact that trades haven’t helped the Diamondbacks, Reds, or Giants much, September might start easier before the Cubs head into trouble territory again. In my mind, the remaining 50 games in the schedule are fairly balanced in terms of “should be easier” and “might be tough” games. Winning two of every three games gets the team to 90 wins, while three of five gets them to 88 wins, both of which might be enough to secure the wild card and/or even the division if the Cubs triumph in their final head-to-heads against the Brewers and Reds.

Lots can happen between now and October, but it is fun to know that as of today, the Cubs are in, and sometimes, all you have to do is get in.

Fun Cubs Facts After the Reds Series

That was a fun series. Here’s some silly facts after the Cubs significantly improved their run differential.

Somehow, those 150 runs represents the most in the National League or maybe even the majors, I forgot which, but it’s a lot.

Beating the hell out of the team that used to lead the division up until you beat the snot out of them is pretty cool.

The Final Countdown (UPDATES)

I think we would all have liked the Cubs to sweep the Cardinals, but sweeps are hard no matter the team, and winning the season series while basically forcing the other guys to sell off all their good players is fun too. But it hasn’t been just the bad teams that the Cubs have done well against, as I remarked on this FB thread and also as shown from the B-Ref breakdown below:

from B-Ref

I believe the Cubs have done enough to get some additions pending the efforts of Jed Hoyer’s front office. Even as the Dodgers are being goddamned useless against the Reds this weekend, the Cubs have gradually trimmed the deficit and are within striking range of the Wild Card and the division, though obviously they’d want to win the division since a couple of the teams in front of them in the wild card race are also in the division. The Cubs also leaked earlier that they weren’t trading Cody Bellinger, which is awesome, but because this team is inherently flawed on the offensive side and might need more than one meh lefty reliever and could also use some insurance if some of the starters have a bad time, some additions are needed.

My guess is that because this team isn’t quite ready to go all-in like the Rangers just did this weekend, they’re going to want to add at the margins and preferably guys with multiple years of club control or cheaper rentals. You can probably go over to MLBTR and check all the rumors, but on my end, I’m anticipating that the top 10 organizational prospects are untouchable this year (explore again this offseason), but there is still plenty of depth to make something happen.

On the internal side of things, at some point they’ll probably call up some of the guys from Iowa (i.e., Matt Mervis and friends, and hell, maybe even David Bote since they’re paying him anyway) to shore up the lineup, as well as pitchers to help eat some starts down the stretch. I think there’s a nonzero chance they eventually determine that certain guys on the big league team are no longer useful and do minor trades or DFA to clear spots.

We have a little under 48 hours to go as of this writing, so it hopefully will not be a disappointment, although I don’t anticipate anything splashy. Taking a wait and see approach.

UPDATE 7/31 6:27 PM Eastern: Oh hello, old friend:

Morosi confirms Michael Cerami’s report on the platform formerly known as twitter:

UPDATE 8:03 PM Eastern: Not even going to pretend I know who this pitcher is but good luck to Nelly:

UPDATE 8/1 9:13 AM Pacific: Decided not to do time zone math anymore, Cubs and Rays did a trade and now we expect the guys going to Tampa to become perennial Cy Young winners:

UPDATE 3:28 PM Pacific: Guess the Cubs are intent on just Jeimer and maybe Cuas whenever they call him up, as there were no real buzzer beaters to speak of:

Stay tuned for some pod.

UPDATE 3:36 PM: In addition to subtracting Trey Mancini, the Cubs don’t have to pay too much for the remaining service time they’ll get from Jeimer:

Mr. Cube Goes to Court

So as you know, I had jury duty this week and that was a different experience than my previous ones with the judicial process. I don’t think I’ve ever actually been inside a courtroom before, but the first time I went to jury duty, I sat in a holding room for hours until the clerk told us to go home. The next time I was in Illinois for graduate school when California somehow found me, and I had to call and explain to the court that I was a couple thousand miles away. The one before this one was during the height of the pandemic and the process is that you’re supposed to call the court the night before, and they told me we were excused which was a huge sigh of relief.

It seems like the courthouses I’ve been to look nothing like the ornate buildings with the Corinthian columns and the triangle roof thing, but rather like repurposed schools, including this one in Richmond even though it was technically the “Superior Court.” The good news is that this time, when I couldn’t escape jury duty (there’s an email to explain hardships but I’m not a very good liar and I honestly had no excuse not to go, and I don’t think “I have to take care of my new dog because he’s lost without me” will work), my job at least would pay me up to a week. I didn’t need the full week though, but still had to drive out to court for a couple days during this drawn out process.

About 70 of us came on the first morning to check in and receive our jury numbers, I happened to be #54 which most likely meant I wouldn’t have to serve on the panel of 12 plus however many alternates California uses. The jury clerk was a goofball who looked like young Ethan Hawke as a porn star and apparently this was his final week so he didn’t really give a shit although he did his job capably. He did the standard announcements to make sure we knew to be on time and be present until the judge excused us, showed a video, and then we waited for almost four hours until we finally were led up to the courtroom.

I kind of liked the diversity of prospective jurors in this pool, and the prosecution were POC (the district attorney was Black and his paralegal was Latino) while the public defender looked like Dog the Bounty Hunter but probably less racist. The judge was a soft-spoken but firm woman who apologized for the court taking forever to get us started. I kind of wish GBTS or Julie or Craig Calcaterra was around to tell me whether I can even tell you passing details about the case after we were all excused (more on that later) but I’ll just keep the story ambiguous to protect the presumed innocent.

Having read a lot of John Grisham novels and a huge fan of the Legal Eagle YouTube channel, I have a passing understanding of the law (probably mostly from watching My Cousin Vinny) but I am definitely not a lawyer. However, the parts about not discussing details of the case outside the court with anyone besides fellow jurors was common sense, and both the DA and the public defender emphasized the terms “impartial” and “presumed innocent” and “reasonable doubt” before the voir dire process.

Before we got to that point though, the judge was able to dismiss jurors who had mistakenly received a summons despite no longer living in the county, and there was one guy who was cussing out the judicial system and told the judge he was a convicted felon so she was silent for a few seconds to process WTF just happened before dismissing him while I cracked up behind my mask (I mean, I was going to be stuck in a room with a bunch of people for hours, of course I’m wearing a mask!). The judge then moved on to deal with hardship cases, i.e. excessive travel, no jury duty paid time off, etc. This was done in the half hour before we had the lunch break.

Upon return, the judge spent 15 minutes with the hardship cases and dismissed five jurors, then we were all seated randomly except the unlucky first 18, with 12 in the main pit and six alternates (I guess). I thought the DA and the public defender both did a good job, and the DA explained reasonable doubt pretty well while the public defender emphasized the presumption of innocence. Then they did voir dire which was super interesting, where each of the first 18 were grilled (nicely, actually) about their implicit biases and whether they could put their past experiences aside and render a verdict consistent with the applicable law.

At this point I should probably say this was a domestic violence criminal charge and that the defendant was in presence, but based on what I could tell, the DA was unlikely to have the alleged victim testify, while the public defender kept emphasizing the Fifth Amendment, so if this had gone to trial it would have been based on third party eyewitnesses and not the directly affected parties, which would probably have also been interesting to see how the cases would have proceeded. The public defender was very good at explaining how invoking the Fifth is just a protection against self-incrimination and not evidence of guilt, although I suppose when certain ex-Presidents take the Fifth like 500 times in an hour that probably tells you something.

As a staunch opponent of domestic violence and having learned that you should always believe the victim at least to the point of gathering all the facts without condemnation, I can’t tell you how I would have voted had I been selected, but I think there were plenty of folks in the first 18 who have experienced domestic violence in some form or another and they were obviously very upset by it. One woman kept insisting she couldn’t remember shit (and I was wondering how she even got to court in the first place if she had Dory syndrome), but after the judge and the attorneys conferred, she and the various upset jurors were excused and then we had to adjourn for the day.

The next day was super dumb and could have been an email, as we reported on time but within five minutes of being seated, the judge said the case had been resolved and we could all go home as we were excused. I don’t know what a resolution in this case entails but I hope everyone is okay going forward and gets the help they need. I did get a couple days off work though, so I guess that’s a win?

Rapid Cubs Draft Reaction

There are probably dozens of prospect perverts and sites better suited to this than I am, but the Draft is over and the Cubs got their 20 new guys, pending signability, but my guess is that the first 10 picks (within the slot pool) will certainly be signed, and they’ll get most of the others because they’re mostly college players and don’t have much in the way of leverage. There don’t seem to be any Cubs picks of note on the last day which is rounds 11 and beyond, at least according to one source, and regardless I’ve heard of none of these guys so I’m flying blind anyway (dying laughing). Only the first five picks have blurbs on MLB dot com, so I imagine the bulk of the slot money goes to them and the rest are going to be way underslot.

The Cubs picks are here and they have $8,962,000 (which is basically $9,410,100 before forfeiting future draft picks) to spend on those first 10. It breaks down as follows:

  • Three from high school, 17 from some form of college
  • Nine pitchers (only three in the top ten, and two of the top five)
  • Three listed as shortstops
  • Two listed as third basemen
  • One listed as primarily first baseman
  • Three outfielders
  • One listed second baseman
  • One catcher

I know drafts aren’t set up for need, but it seems they were going after established college bats so this seems like a safe draft. The two high schoolers picked #6 and #7 are probably going to be underslots and ready signs, but the prospect hounds seem to at least think there are tools there to be worked with. I imagine with a pretty decent pitching infrastructure in place, they could afford to err on the side of positional need, and the shortstops can eventually go somewhere else if Swanson and Hoerner haven’t bailed yet.

Teams have to sign their guys by August 1, which incidentally is the trade deadline, so I guess the front office interns are going to be making lots of Starbucks runs in the next couple weeks.

All Purpose All-Star Break Rundown

Since the last time I looked at the odds (extreme Han Solo voice), the Cubs have slipped a bit in the standings but remain in third place, now six games back of the Brewers and seven behind the Reds. While it’s possible the Reds or the Brewers can win the division, I don’t think Cincinnati is as good as their record suggests (albeit with their very exciting play thanks to EDLC) and the recent series with the Brewers, in which the Cubs might have swept were it not for some brain farts and bad luck (it could’ve gone either way), suggested that the Brewers weren’t that good either. What remains is for the Cubs to take advantage of the fact that every team is flawed, while also making sure they minimize their own flaws. The odds have updated some thanks to the Reds almost running away with it, but the Cubs aren’t that far back when considering this part of the calendar, so they still have a shot at winning the division and a laughably small chance of clinching a first round bye. Having just won their first ever series against the Yankees in any stadium in the New York Metropolitan Area, the Cubs might have at least stemmed the need to sell, although I guess we can look at that later or talk about it on the podcast.

The All-Star Game

There was a flurry of moves as Sunday starters bowed out and replacement pitchers and other injury replacements were announced, but for the Cubs, only Justin Steele will actually play in the game since Marcus Stroman elected not to pitch and Dansby Swanson is on the injured list with a heel issue which we hope will resolve itself by the time he’s eligible to be activated. I did think it was a bit funky to have three representatives from a team that isn’t even at .500, but I guess that speaks to the talent of the club and how the record doesn’t reflect that talent because of “baseball” or whatever. Steele and Stroman are among the pitching leaders in the NL and Swanson may still be the WAR leader amongst NL shortstops (what, you want me to look it up?) so this plus the prospects knocking on the door make me think they should buy and not do any sort of major sell-off, although I imagine the days for certain players like a Patrick Wisdom might be numbered, and guys who could hit free agency soon like Cody Bellinger and even Kyle Hendricks could be good moves to free up roster spots for said prospects to get some reps before they hopefully get serious about winning this coming offseason. Anyway, the Home Run Derby is on Monday and then they play the only All-Star Game in which the defense actually tries.

The Draft

So Rob Manfred got an earful from the very perceptive fans in the crowd on Day 1, where the LSU duo everyone was salivating over got picked first and second overall, while the Cubs made some fun picks with their two of the day, which covered the first 70 picks. The second day will cover rounds 3-10, and the third and final day completes the draft with rounds 11-20 ever since they gutted the draft among killing something like 40 minor league affiliates and readying to restrict minor league club roster sizes. Most of the news is compiled over at MLB dot com.

The first was at #13 because the new draft lottery hates the Cubs, where they picked Matt Shaw, listed as either a second baseman or a shortstop or just an infielder, from the University of Maryland. He was apparently the Cape Cod League MVP last summer and hit a bunch of homers so there’s a hit tool, and the scouts suggest his arm won’t allow him to stay on the left side so he’s likely going to be a second baseman if he sticks, which makes things interesting down the line especially if he graduates as rapidly as Nico Hoerner did.

The final pick, thanks to Willson Contreras moving to the other side of the rivalry, was at #68 with Jaxon Wiggins, a right-hander from Arkansas who had Tommy John Surgery. I think of this as their Cade Horton pick for this year, and we can see what Horton is doing so far in the minors. Wiggins seemed to sit comfortably in the mid-90s with the ability to sniff triple digits but we’ll see if the Cubs got some value out of this one. Between Wiggins and Shaw I believe the Cubs will save some money for the later rounds to squeeze whatever value they can out of each slot before they screw some seniors (hey, phrasing)

The Cubs have a relatively smaller pool with $8,962,000 (plus 5%) to spend amongst their first 10 round picks, plus they can max out at $150K without dipping into the pool for anyone from rounds 11-20.

The Outlook

When they return home on Friday, the Cubs will take on a resurgent Red Sox club which might be fine were they not stuck in the AL East. After that one, it’s a long-ish quasi-home stand where they hopefully exact revenge on the Nationals and Cardinals before traveling to the South Side and finishing their season series against the Cardinals before July even ends. Then back home to play the current division leader Reds, which coincides with the trade deadline. Inclusive of the trade deadline on August 1, that’s 18 games remaining to build on this 42-47 record. This year’s Cubs has been a bit of a mystery because they can’t decide if they’re good or not, which probably means they’re a “bad” team by default, but also maybe they just need to do what Berselius says and just play better. So this is probably going to be about three weeks of agony or jubilation depending on what happens. It could go either way!