Sitrick – Obstructed View

Daytona Cubs named Baseball America’s 2013 Minor League Team of the Year

In what seems to me to be a fairly unsurprising choice, Baseball America named the Daytona Cubs as 2013's Minor League Team of the Year. The article is free here, and absolutely worth a read.

The important part:

The season included special moments such as shortstop Javier Baez’s four home run effort on June 10 against Fort Myers. Matt Loosen spun Daytona’s first nine-inning no-hitter in 19 seasons, and Ben Wells, Kyler Burke and Zach Cates combined on a seven-inning no-no on Aug. 27, completing a suspended game that started six days earlier in Dunedin—meaning they completed a no-hitter at the Jack as the visiting team. “I’ve been in professional baseball for 31 years, and there was stuff I hadn’t seen in either forever or a long time,” Keller said.

And that's to say nothing of Kris Bryant's late season appearance and subsequent domination, or the way CJ Edwards toyed with FSL hitters upon his arrival. This should serve as a nice preview for the 2014 Tennesee squad, which thankfully will have every game available for viewing on MiLB.TV (seriously, if you haven't gotten it before, you're going to want that next season).

Minor League Roundtable Part 2: Breakouts and Busts

Part 2 of our Roundtable series discussing all sorts of things relevant to the Cubs Minor League system. Let's get into it, shall we?

Myles: Who do you guys think could breakout next year? I think there's a slam-dunk answer to breakout candidates, but I have a few I'd like to talk about. The one I'm most confident about is Shawon Dunston, Jr. He's been great when he hasn't been injured, and he's got plate discipline, with enough power to make pitchers worry. He's also a great defender in the outfield. He was well thought-of before injuries derailed him, and I think he'll take a step forward next year.

I also think that when Stephen Bruno comes back next year, he's got a chance to enter the prospect conversation. He had a nice season in 2012 but unfortunately lost essentially all of 2013. He probably isn't more than a supersub, but it's hard to deny a guy that crushed A- to the tune of 172 wRC+ in his first professional year, and was on the way to do the same at A+ until his injury.

My last guy is Paul Blackburn, who has a shot to be the best Cubs pitching prospect at the end of 2014 in my mind. He's still got to fill out, but I don't think he'll have a problem with it (unlike CJ Edwards). When he does fill out, he'll have a nice sinking fastball with good plane and good location. That's a pitch that you can build a MLB career around. Huge walk rates don't faze me in the minors unless it's really obvious something is going wrong.

Dmick: Funny, Shawon Dunston, Jr. was the guy I was going with. He had a great walk rate this year, but it was in a level he should be hitting quite well in. His ISO was disturbingly low, but I think we'll see that improve if he can stay healthy. Honestly though, this is a category that's so hard to pick and the easier topic to discuss is what prospects are likely to fall next season. I can go with any possible breakout. Trey Masek comes to mind. I know I've been low on Jeimer Candelario, but he's another guy who could take a few steps next year.

sitrick: I said so in my review, but I still believe in Gioskar Amaya. I think there was so much crap working against him this season, it was in hindsight a bit premature to be predicting huge things from him in Kane County. He's still got a quick bat, and reports on the defense are positive. I think he has a "putting it together" sort of season and ends 2014 with the Smokies. I think Yasiel Balaguert could find some helium in '14 too.

Dmick: I think Yasiel Balaguert is going to struggle just because I can't ever imagine having to write that name without thinking what the next letter should be. /dumbshit who hasn't taken Spanish since high school.

Myles: I like Jeimer, and not just because he follow me on twitter.

Dmick: Possible breakdowns? CJ Edwards and Kyle Hendricks, I think, are the obvious ones.

Myles: I think Kyle Hendricks is due for some regression, just like Nick Struck was (though hopefully not to that level). Sahadev Sharma says scouts don't think his slider plays in the majors, which he'd need to keep MLB talent off the hittable fastball. I can see that, but I also think Hendricks is an intelligent pitcher who at the very least keeps the ball in the park.

sitrick: Dillon Maples could wash out pretty quick if he doesn't find some success in full-season ball soon. I wouldn't be shocked to see Alcantara take a step back next season. This was a big year for him and he did wear down near the end of it. I think I need to see another year out of Edwards before I make any judgements. I wouldn't be surprised if he imploded, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took a step forward and jumped into the national top 25. I think we'll know more when he gets to a level where we can see pitch counts and really judge if his low innings are because of an innings limit/lack of efficiency or if he's just not capable of putting a 6+ inning start together.

Myles: Maples is probably the hardest prospect to pin down in the organization. He could be a Top 10 guy in the org next year, or be in Indy ball. I'm still an Edwards believer. I know that Parks thinks there's no way he adds weight to his frame, but he also liked his delivery and repeatable motion. When it's said and done, I think Edwards ends up as a very, very nice fireman/closer, which is a nice thing to have. And there's that 1-in-20 chance he adds 15 pounds of good weight, in which case he could be a #2 or #3 (probably #3 type). There's also the 1-in-3 chance his body just says "I can't handle this" and he gets Arodys Vizcaino disease. I'd REALLY like to see him start in person.

Dmick: As I mentioned, the innings limit doesn't make sense to me. He only pitched 47 innings in 2012 and 126.1 this year, but he also pitched in extended spring training in 2012. The innings limit doesn't make sense to me.

sitrick: I have a gut feeling Edwards isn't the most efficient guy in the world, and that more than anything is where his lack of innings comes from. But I want to see the pitch counts and know for sure before I judge.

Oh, here's a bold prediction for you: I think if Josh Vitters stays healthy next year he gets a second look in the majors as a left fielder and surprises some folks. Not a superstar or a Role-6 or anything, but I still think he peaks as an acceptable Role-5 guy if health doesn't continue to be an issue. Call me crazy, but I'm buying in.

Dmick: Ok, I'll do it. You're crazy. (dying laughing) In all seriousness, I can see Vitters get a second look, but I can't see it turning out well. Maybe as a back-up. I don't know.

Myles: No, I like Vitters! I'm worried that he'll never stay healthy again after 2013, but he's STILL going to be just 24 next year. He has as good a chance as any to get some PT in left next year. If he ends up a left-side bench player, I wouldn't be at all surprised.

Who is more likely to breakout for the Cubs next year: Josh Vitters or Brian Bogusevic? Is this even a question?

Dmick: Is there a third option or do I have to pick Vitters or Bogusevic? I'll go with the third option.

sitrick: The swing is so fucking good with VItters, and he's never been successful right off the bat at any full-season level. I just believe he'll look better the second time around in the majors. Not rational, I know.

Myles: "Not rational" is becoming a running theme here.

sitrick: (dying laughing) I know it's mostly coming from me. I'm an optimist, sue me.

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Jorge Soler

Jorge Soler is a 21 year-old right-handed outfielder standing 6'3-225. Born in Cuba, Soler defected in 2011, establishing residency in Haiti. On June 2, 2012, Soler was cleared by OFAC to become a free agent, and began negotiations with clubs to sign a contract.

Soler was notable in that he was the last major international prospect to become available before restrictions on IFA spending would limit teams' ability to throw unlimited dollars at free agents around the world. On one of the last episodes of his Up & In Podcast, Kevin Goldstein compared this to the shopping spree just before a big storm, suggesting that bidding for Soler "could get silly", and that Soler could fetch something outrageous like $25 million. Goldstein's silly prediction ended up being about $5 million short, as Soler received a nine-year $30 million contract from the Cubs on June 11th of 2012.

Not too long after signing, Soler arrived in the AZL, batting .241/.328/.389 in 14 games. The organization deemed this enough time to shake the rust and cobwebs off, as Soler was promoted to Peoria to finish the season, replacing Javier Baez on the Chief's roster upon his promotion to Daytona.

Soler destroyed the Midwest League in a small, 20 game, 88 PA sample size, his .338/.398/.513 line good for a .406 wOBA and a 153 wRC+ . Perhaps most impressively, in those 88 PAs he managed to strike out only 6 times for a 1:1 K:BB ratio. He would finish the year universally ranked as a top 3 talent in the Cubs' growing pool of farm talent, and found himself placed comfortably inside the national top 50 lists of every major evaluation site (36th for B-Pro, 34th at BA, 25th from Sickels, and 42 from both Keith Law and Jonathan Mayo). Having set the expectation bar high for himself, Soler looked to begin 2013 with Daytona and continue his ascension through the minor league ranks.

Performance

Soler got off to a torrid start with Daytona, with a solid-if-unremarkable .776 in April before uncorking a .304/.376/.539/.915 line in May that, combined with Javier Baez's sluggish start to the season, had some wondering if Soler wasn't actually the best prospect in the Cubs' system. He cooled in June (likely due to a stress fracture in his ankle that would sideline him for the remainder of the season), but his final .281/.343/.467 line would earn him a selection to the Futures Game's International Team roster.

The only downside to Soler's season was its relatively short length, thanks to a combination of suspension and injury. On April 10th, in a game against the Clearwater Threshers, Soler exchanged some fairly nasty words with Carlos Alonso after an inning-ending double play, and Alonso reportedly stepped on Soler. Soler responded by going to the dugout, grabbing a bat, and attacking the Clearwater dugout. It took Baez and the Daytona hitting coach prying the intimidatingly-stout Soler away from the Threshers' side of the field to finally end the altercation. He was suspended five games for the incident.

Then on June 27th, after missing the Futures Game and not playing for two weeks, the Cubs announced that Soler had suffered a stress fracture that would keep him in a walking boot for 4-6 weeks. While the front office left the door open for a possible return to Daytona this season, Soler would eventually be shut down for the season, looking to make up lost at-bats in the AFL.

Scouting

There's a ton of available scouting on Soler, so I'll let that do the talking.

Here's a portion of Baseball America's Prospect Handbook blurb on Soler from before this season:

The ball explodes off Soler's bat, and his well above-average power can make any ballpark look small. He hit two balls onto Waveland Avenue while taking batting practice at Wrigley Field in September. He has feel for hitting too, as he uses a game plan, recognizes pitches well and can make two-strike adjustments. Some scouts worry about an arm bar and some stiffness in his swing. Soler has solid speed once he gets going and good instincts on the bases. Once he improves his routes to balls, he'll be an asset in right field. He has well above-average arm strength and makes accurate throws. A prototypical right fielder, Soler has a ceiling that rivals Javier Baez's as the highest among Chicago farmhands. The Cubs may be conservative to start 2013, letting Soler tear up the Midwest League while he continues to get acclimated to the United States. He and Albert Almora may race through the system together.

Here's some of what Baseball Prospectus had to say in their Futures Guide from this season:

Strengths: 7 raw power; easy bat speed; loud contact off the barrel to all fields; plays with strength and athleticism; solid approach at the plate; recognizes early; will work counts; plus arm; good carry; runs very well for a right fielder; shows some overall feel for the game; assimilation has been smooth (so far).

Weaknesses: Questions about the future utility of the hit tool based on a few mechanical hitches that could limit his ability to stay inside of quality stuff; defensive profile puts pressure on bat to achieve first-division value; unknown hurdles associated with assimilation process; small professional sample. Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player

Soler would often struggle to keep his hands inside and his early extension would leave him open to quality stuff on the inner half. If the hit tool is stronger than we are giving it credit for, the offensive upside will be very impressive, as Soler will profile as a middle-of-the-order force at the major-league level.

And finally, here's Sickels from February:

Soler is a chiseled athlete with outstanding raw power, above-average speed, and a strong throwing arm. He demonstrated all of those tools in his first pro look, and he showed good skills once he got settled in. Although he could use some polish with the strike zone, his pitch recognition skills weren't terrible. He kills fastballs. Breaking balls will cross him up sometimes, but note his very low strikeout rate for Peoria. Granted the sample is small, but a low whiff rate like that, combined with huge power, is a strong sabermetric marker. Soler also needs more experience on defense, but his range and arm strength will work well in right field. Assuming Soler's listed birthday is correct, he looks like a helluva prospect to me. Grade B+, and that might be too conservative.

Outlook

Soler will end up once again in the Top 50 of all the major prospect rankings this offseason, and deservedly so. His injury may keep him out of the Top 25 on some lists, but Parks has strongly intimated that Soler will be in his Top 25, and Baseball America has been similarly bullish on Soler in their Top 100. His suspension briefly raised a flurry of character and makeup questions in the national media (as well as the Facebook Cubs crowd), but these were quickly drowned out once Soler started raking again. The fact that the stress fracture was not the result of any particular incident or injury — but just sort of happened due to wear and tear — could raise questions about his long-term durability if you were a person prone to finding things to worry about. But really, I don't think there's much reason to be anything other than excited to see Soler get back on a field and start mashing baseballs again. With a good, productive AFL season, Soler should end up only a little bit behind where he might be on the development track had he had a full, healthy 2013, starting 2014 in Double-A.

Long-term, the ceiling is as high for Soler as it is for anyone in the Cubs organization. Though he's somehow flown a bit under the radar thanks to the drama of Baez's might and the shiny-new-toy-ness of Kris Bryant, Soler would be the top prospect in a good many farm systems, and his value should not be overlooked. In a recent episode of the Bleacher Nation Podcast, Brett and Sahadev speculated that at this point (thanks to Baez's explosive tour through the Southern League) Soler might be the Cubs prospect most likely to be traded in a blockbuster deal for pitching depth. I'd be surprised to see him (or any of the top four, for that matter) moved at any point in the near future, given the relatively underwhelming years of Rizzo and Castro. The offense needs more than one or two bats to fix this team's run-scoring woes, and when you combine that with the hefty dollar amount attached to Soler's contract as a minor leaguer, I think Theo and company will wait to get a look at Soler in the majors before even considering moving him.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Gioskar Amaya

Gioskar Amaya came to the Cubs as a 2009 J2 signing. His signing bonus isn't listed anywhere, so we'll assume the Cubs didn't exactly break the bank on him. Amaya entered 2013 as a hot pick to have a breakout season in the Cubs organization. Some of the notable reports:

Sickels:

11) Gioskar Amaya, 2B, Grade B-: I think he will take a huge step forward in 2013. Defense at second base is better than it was at shortstop. He's got pop, can steal bases, and has a good swing.

Callis:

I do like Amaya and think he has the upside of a solid regular. He can hit for average, might surprise you with some pop, has plus speed and plays a nice second base.

And one more from a November 2011 Kevin Goldstein column just because I found it and what the hell:

The Sleeper: Venezuelan teenager Gioskar Amaya is a plus runner with excellent contact ability who could grow into a utility role, and possibly a bit more.

Despite not much action on top organizational prospect lists — likely do to his youth and short-season ball status — Amaya seemed to be a name everyone was watching. A 5'11, 175 lb MIF bat, Amaya shuffled back and forth between short and second before finally settling in as a 2B late in the 2011 AZL season. Meanwhile, he hit .377/.417/.510 in his first season stateside, playing 52 games in Arizona.

2012 saw him moved up to Boise where he continued to rake, hitting .298/.381/.496, displaying a patient approach (33 BBs in 317 PAs for a 10.4% rate, more than double his 2011 performance a level lower), and nice power (8 HRs, 12 3Bs). A 20.5% K-rate was a bit disappointing, but Amaya proved himself more than ready for the test of full-season ball at Kane County in 2013.

Performance

Amaya got off to a frigid start and never fully recovered, hitting .229/.247/.313 in April and .238/.307/.375 in June. His pre-All Star line settled at .242/.311/.357 as he struggled to adjust to better pitching and the ice-cold spring the midwest league had to offer in 2013. In hindsight, it's fairly unsurprising that Amaya got off to such a sluggish start, playing in seriously cold weather for the first time.

A scorching July helped turn his season around, posting an eye-popping .319/.414/.489 line over 25 games and flashing the breakout potential scouts saw in him before the season. It was not to be however, as August and the long full-season schedule were unkind to Amaya, finishing with an improved-but-still-disappointing .252/.329/.369 line for the season.

Scouting

A .698 OPS in his first go at full-season ball is not going to give Amaya a ton of helium this offseason, but as a 20-year old, he can afford to have a challenging year. If you're looking for reasons to be pessimistic, his 8.1% walk rate and 21.1% K rate are certainly worth keeping an eye on as he rises through the ranks.

Here's BA's report on Amaya from this year's Prospect Handbook:

Amaya starred alongside Marco Hernandez in the Rookie-level Arizona League during their 2011 U.S. debuts, and again at Boise last summer. Amaya can do a little bit of everything, but he stands out most for how easy he makes it all look. When the Cubs needed an emergency infielder in Triple-A in mid-May, they sent him to Iowa and he delivered a double in his lone at-bat. Amaya uses a short, quick swing that has produced a .333 batting average in two years in the United States. He's growing into some sneaky power and has plus speed, and he hinted at both with his Northwest League-leading 12 triples last summer. After alternating between second base and shortstop with Hernandez in the AZL, Amaya played exclusively at the keystone in 2012 with Boise. His range and arm strength weren't quite good enough at shortstop but are solid at second. He topped NWL second basemen with a .968 fielding percentage. Club officials love his makeup and how he's locked in to play every day. If Amaya keeps producing at the plate when he gets to full-season ball in 2013, he'll start to move quickly.

Despite the struggles, nothing about 2013 changed any of this for Amaya. He'll only be 21 next season, still has a quick bat, and is still growing into his power. His home run power is likely minimal — maybe a 10-15 guy optimistically at the major league level. But with his speed, there's the potential for a lot of doubles and triples if he can make the adjustment and start to hit full-season pitching the way he dominated the rookie leagues. And given the positive reports of his makeup, the quality of his swing, and the solid plate approach he's displayed before Kane County, I think he's perfectly capable of making those adjustments.

Outlook

Frankly, I think Amaya's 2013 performance was better than the line reflects. There were a lot of challenges to overcome, and in hindsight, a struggling year of adjustments was probably fairly predictable. It truly was a frigid spring in Midwest League towns, making the already-offense-suppressing environment play as more of a pitcher's league than usual; warm weather didn't roll in for good until mid-june, which, coincidentally, is about the time Amaya's bat started to heat up. You could create a fairly convincing narrative built around Amaya struggling to adjust to cold weather for the first few months of the season, getting hot for about a six week stretch, and then wearing down due to the grind of a full-season schedule. Of course, struggling is struggling, whatever the reason, and he still needs to prove he can make adjustments to more difficult leagues. But I wonder if the somewhat common notion of 2013 as a breakout season for Amaya wasn't a year or so premature.

Given his struggles, Gioskar should start 2014 repeating Kane County. The FSL isn't any more offense-friendly, and he needs to prove it against his current level of competition before taking on tougher challenges. With 500+ PAs logged at low-A already, however, I would think a hot April would be enough to earn a Daytona promotion and keep him from falling behind in the developmental track. With a bit of a warmer spring and a year of full-season experience already under his belt, I'm expecting a nice rebound (and potentially breakout) season out of him next year.

Long-term, the picture for Gioskar is a bit murkier. The glut of infielders already in the mix for playing time at the major league level will likely make him expendable, barring a farm-clearing trade for David Price or similar ilk. If 2014 does prove a breakout season for him, his name could find its way into some trade scenarios as third- or fourth-pieces in a bigger package.

Whatever happens, 2014 is, in my opinion, a make-or-break point in Amaya's career. Another year of struggling in the midwest league and he'll drop off the radar fairly quick, whereas a breakout season could make him next year's Alcantara. As with all Low-A players, there's a ton of volatility to his future, and it's up to Amaya and his bat to make order out of it all.

UPDATE: Myles was kind enough to remind me that the Cubs are using the fall as an opportunity to test Amaya out at Catcher, however Mark Gonzales writes that the move is not considered permanent at this point, he's just getting work in instructional leagues.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Rob Zastryzny

I believe this rounds out the prospect reviews as far as 2013 draftees go. Rob Zastryzny, a 6'3, 193 lb, 21 year old lefty drafted 41st overall out of Mizzou, was something of a surprise pick in the early 2nd round, as he was ranked 76th on the BA 500, and Jonathan Mayo admitted on draft night that he didn't have Zastryzny ranked in his personal top 100. A soft-tossing lefty with good command and pitchability, a solid changeup, and an inconsistant breaking ball, Zas (I'm calling him Zas because I'm too lazy to memorize how to spell Zastryznzyzyznzyznzy) looked like an underslot pick, allowing them to save some money and go after riskier overslot picks later on. Sure enough, Zastryzny signed for 1.1 million, roughly 260K under slot, and he went straight to Boise.

Performance

Zas pitched in 11 games between Boise and Kane County in 2013 and did everything you'd expect an upper-level college pitcher to do in the low minors. Zastryzny threw 24 innings, allowing 24 hits, 6 runs, 8 walks, and 22 Ks, totalling a 2.25 ERA between the two levels. He held batters to a .264 BAA and didn't allow a homer. He did walk a few more batters upon reaching Kane County, but it's three games and even the 24 innings we have between the two levels is a stupidly small sample size. Still, better to be good than to not be good, and Zastryzny got his pro career off to a good start.

Scouting

Zastryzny is something of a two-and-a-half pitch guy currently, relying primarily on a fastball that sits around 90, with a solid changeup and a work-in-progress, slurvy breaking ball as his secondary options. Here's what BA has to say:

A lefthander who can really pitch with his fastball, he should go in the first three rounds. Zastrzyny effortlessly adds and subtracts from his fastball, usually sitting around 90 mph but capable of dropping down to 86 or elevating four-seamers up in the zone at 95. The 6-foot-3, 193-pounder can locate his fastball to either side of the plate and gets good angle, which helps it play up further. His most reliable secondary pitch is his changeup, which shows flashes of being a plus offering. His breaking ball is less consistent, as he will switch between a slider and curveball. Zastryzny throws strikes but will need to refine his command in pro ball.

The best video of him throwing is probably the bit included with the draft night coverage I linked to above (there's also a longer video of him throwing in-game on youtube, but it's from 2010 and doesn't seem terribly useful at this point). The delivery looks really smooth, balanced, and easy, which I imagine goes a long way towards his excellent fastball command and leaves him a little bit of extra velocity to reach back for when he needs it. His strikeout numbers in college weren't mindblowing (82 Ks in 90 2/3 IP last season with Mizzou) and the reports about his approach to pitching seem to suggest a style lending itself more to weak contact than eye-popping strikeout totals. If he can add a grade or two to the breaking ball, you might squint and see a profile that's a bit similar to Kyle Hendricks, the fringy fastball supplemented by pinpoint control and repertoire. That development would have to come pretty fast, though, as he'll be 22 next season.

Outlook

I'd expect Zastryzny to start 2014 with a return to Kane County, with the opportunity for a quick bump up to Daytona if he doesn't fall apart. Long-term, I think he's a back-end bullpen/AAA guy at best. Based on reports of his stuff, I can't imagine he has the velocity, the pitch repertoire, or the strikeout stuff to be even a fifth or sixth starter, and he doesn't really fit the power-arm profile this front office seems to want from its bullpen staples. Perhaps his secondary stuff develops and his pitchability plays up enough that he becomes someone a bit more intriguing, but until that happens I can't see him shooting up any organizational prospect rankings.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Josh Vitters

Josh Vitters came to the Cubs with the third overall pick in the 2007 draft as the reward for their dismal 2006 campaign, a highly touted high school third base prospect with an enviable right-handed swing, tremendous raw power, and almost no glove whatsoever. After a year of demolishing both the Northwest and Midwest Leagues (slashing .328/.365/.498 in 61 games at Boise in 2008 and .316/.351/.535 in the first 70 games of 2009), Vitters was promoted to Daytona, where his star began to fade a bit. A .238/.260/.344 line in 50 games suggested that young Mr. Vitters had trouble laying off much of anything, and FSL pitchers obliged him by letting him flail at junk. Vitters would eventually adjust to the FSL, hitting .291/.350/.445 in 28 games of a repeat trip through the league in 2010, but the book was out on Vitters, and he would go on to struggle once more in his first go at Tennessee.

Vitters' struggles at A+ and AA sent the spotlight elsewhere, until his arrival in the hitter-friendly PCL brought with it a resurgence and a bit of new attention. A 2012 season in Des Moines that spanned 110 games and offered not only a .304/.356/.513 line, but also his highest walk rate at any level of pro ball (a paltry 6.6%, but nonetheless…) had people talking about Vitters as something other than a total disappointment. His solid performance earned him a mid-year callup to the majors, where he once again struggled to adjust to more advanced pitching. His 30.3% strikeout rate over 109 PAs had people dismissing Vitters once more as a bust, a flailer with no pitch recognition skills and a Yakety Sax glove at third. He began 2013 looking to rebuild his confidence in AAA and earn another look with the major league club, the hope being that he might continue his pattern of struggling intially at a new level before adjusting and performing well.

Performance

Unfortunately, 2013 was something of a lost season for Vitters, who made three different trips to the disabled list and managed only 100 PAs in 28 games. While his performance was very solid when he managed to be on the field for the I-Cubs (.295/.380/.511, with 11 walks for an 11% walk rate, compared to 30 walks in 452 PAs in his first trip through AAA), muscle strains of all sorts plagued him throughout the year, first his lower back, then his rib cage, then finally a hamstring. The good news is that, despite all the injury setbacks, Vitters' game didn't completely implode a la Brett Jackson.

Scouting

Vitters has come to represent something of a cautionary tale for high draft picks, and how difficult it is to determine pre-draft how a hitter's pitch recognition and plate patience skillsets will develop. Scouts still love his swing; Keith Law was briefly complimentary of it on a recent installment of his Behind the Dish podcast before caveating that his good swing is useless if he can't lay off a ball out of the zone, and on a recent episode of the Fringe Average podcast, Jason Parks mentioned that Vitters was the first prospect he thought was a can't-miss, superstar talent that he was completely wrong about.

Everything with Vitters depends on his ability to make adjustments and differentiate pitches he can drive from junk — an ability he hasn't really shown anywhere as a professional. Though his walk rates have improved as he's gotten both older and more experienced with a particular league, they're still below average, and it's unlikely they'd look any better in an extended major league look.

Vitters' glove at third has proven almost as problematic as his batting eye, a problem the organization will try to remedy by moving him to the outfield this offseason.

Outlook

Vitters has been in the organization for a long time now, with big highs and lows in his prospect status along the way. He's been around so long and is so familiar that it's easy to forget that he's a year younger than Mike Olt, with better contact abilities and minus a year of complete implosion at the plate. Yes, Vitters' indiscerning pitch recognition will keep him from ever being the superstar he may have seemed upon being drafted, but there still exists the potential for him to become a useful player.

Despite the dismal batting eye, I'd still like to see Vitters get one more chance with the big club if he can start next season relatively healthy. He's shown the ability to adjust and eventually provide solid production at every level he's played, despite initial (and occasionally lengthy) struggles. The Cubs are, in all likelihood, going to be pretty lousy again next season, with nobody currently blocking Vitters in left. It would seem pretty harmless to me to give Vitters a month or two to see if he can become discerning enough to let the solid swing and big power make him a productive player. Odds are he's a Quad-A player in the making, but, personally, I'd like to know for sure.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Paul Blackburn

Paul Blackburn is a 6-2, 185 pound righty who was drafted at the tail-end of the 1st round in 2012. He was Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer's third pick since they took over for Jim Hendry. He was rated 57th entering the draft and was picked 56th overall. He signed for $911,700 and began his career shortly after in the Arizona League.

Performance

He threw only 20.2 innings last season after the draft (9 games, 6 starts) and wasn't all that impressive. He struckout 14.6% of the batters, but his walk rate was fairly solid (7.9%). As an 18 year old at the time, it was good enough.

He opened the year in extended spring training and broke with Boise when their season began in late June. He made 13 appearances, 12 starts and threw a total of 46 innings. He got off to a great start, not allowing an earned run in his first 3 starts (5 innings apiece), but struggled in the middle of the season. He came on fairly strong in last four starts.

Overall in those 46 innings, he struckout 18.7% of the batters and walked over 14%. The walk rate will obviously have to be cut way down to be successful. He allowed 3 home runs and had a fairly strong 3.33 ERA, but an FIP just a little more than a run higher (4.35).

Scouting

He throws a sinking fastball that sits in the 90-93 mph range. There's a good chance he adds some velocity when he adds some bulk to his body. He throws a curveball and a changeup that are supposedly pretty good for his age.

mlb.com ranks him 17th in the Cubs organization and wrote this prior to the season.

In some ways, Blackburn is a college arm stuck in a high schooler's body. He has a really advanced feel for a prepster. He has a three-pitch mix that won't wow you in terms of pure stuff, but it's solid average across the board. Both his changeup and perhaps even his curve have the chance to be better than average in the future. His fastball has a lot of sink and will sit in the 90-93 mph range. He has very good command, showing the ability to locate and move the ball around the zone. While he will be just 19 for all of the 2013 season, his pitchability may allow him to move a little faster than many high school draftees.

Outlook

Blackburn will probably open the season with Kane County next year where he may run into similar problems to Dillon Maples. I like Blackburn's future more than Maples since he's younger, but he has a long way to go to develop into an MLB pitcher. He's a pitcher to watch next year and in the future. He has three plus pitches and that's impressive for his age. He will have to refine his control and hopefully in doing so he can also increase his strikeout rate. After Pierce Johnson and Kyle Hendricks, it's going to be a long drop until the next potential starting pitching prospect shows up in the rankings unless it's Arodys Vizcaino. After that, it's probably Blackburn and then who knows?

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Jae-Hoon Ha

Jae-Hoon Ha was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2008 out of Jin Ju City, South Korea. He signed for a bonus of $225,000. He began his US professional career at Boise in 2009 at the age of 18. He was signed as a catcher and, reportedly, was moved to the outfield because he couldn't handle the throws behind the plate. He never actually played an official game at the position.

Ha was born October 29, 1990 in Jin Ju City. Ha bats and throws right-handed, has primarily played CF, but has played all the outfield positions. He's played 285 in CF, 162 in RF and 30 in LF. He's 6-1, 185 pounds.

Performance

Off to a great start in AA this year, Jae-Hoon Ha suffered a lower back strain on May 1st and would be out until the third week of June. He played only three more games at AA before being promoted to AAA Iowa. At Tennesse over 28 games and 114 plate appearances, he hit .284/.384/.368 with a .352 wOBA and 124 wRC+.

Ha played the entire season at AA last year and over 121 games increased his walk rate significantly. Prior to 2013 it had been really bad, but it jumped to higher than 9% last year. At AA this year (small sample) it was over 11%.

In 62 games and 244 plate appearances at AAA, Ha hit just .241/.288/.364. His wOBA was .293 and he had just a 69 wRC+. His walk rate 6.1% and he struckout in 17.2% of his plate appearances.

Overall in 2013, the 22 year old Ha hit .254/.318/.354. It was a disappointing season for him, but he still has age on his side to some extent.

Scouting

There's not a lot of recent scouting information about Jae-Hoon Ha. Prior to 2012 Baseball America called him the best defensive outfielder in the Cubs system. He's probably the best that will make his way onto the MLB team in the next year for sure, but I'm fairly sure the scouts have raved about Almora's potential out there.

Ha isn't going to hit for much power, but he has a strong arm and can play defense. It's also not likely that Ha will be reaching base an awful lot either.

Outlook

Ha doesn't have much power or much speed, but reportedly plays a good enough CF that he can stick there. The problem for Ha is that the Cubs aren't really lacking in young CF talent. They've got Junior Lake at the MLB level and while I expect a great deal of regression from Lake, he's probably as good or better than Ha would be. Zeke DeVoss will be at AA next year and even though he may end up a backup, he'll probably move ahead of Ha on the depth chart. The Cubs long-term hope here is Albert Almora, but he's at least a couple years away.

There's a good chance that Jae-Hoon Ha could stick around MLB for a few years as a 4th or 5th outfielder.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Dan Vogelbach

Dan Vogelbach came to the Cubs in the second round of the 2011 Rule 4 draft. Listed currently at 6'0, 250 lbs, Vogelbach was listed at 288 just before the draft, and has worked hard to drop weight and become more athletic since turning pro. Pre-draft, Perfect Game had this to say about Vogelbach as a draft prospect:

Vogelbach is enormously strong, and along with his loose, easy wrists generates outstanding bat speed from the left side of the plate. Another factor that makes Vogelbach unique in the scouting community is that it is almost easier to break down his mental approach to hitting, rather than his physical approach, especially after granting him his raw strength and bat speed. The young man eats, sleeps and breathes swinging a bat, and is an exceptionally-confident hitter who doesn’t believe that any pitcher should ever get him out. Like oversized slugger Prince Fielder, Vogelbach is such a ferocious hitter that almost everyone in the park will stop and watch his at-bats…Yet as advanced as Vogelbach is presently, Fielder was stronger at the same age coming out of a Melbourne, Fla., high school, and hit the ball harder…But the comparison to Fielder is a valid one—perhaps the most valid “Prince” comparison of the last decade.

It's debatable whether drawing Prince Fielder comps should be flattering or not, but so it goes. As a big, burly high school power hitter with light tower power and a very mature hitting approach, Vogelbach was expected to go to an AL team and be groomed as a DH, with rumored interest from the Red Sox, Twins, and Rays pre-draft. The Cubs apparently saw something they liked, however, and drafted him as the 68th overall pick, signing on deadline day for $1.6 million.

He signed in time to play only 6 games in the 2011 season for the AZL Cubs, but flashed hints at his major power potential by slugging .542 with a .250 ISO. He would return in 2012 to turn the AZL — and later the Northwest League — into his own personal power showcase, finishing with a .324/.391/.686 line in 115 AZL PAs and a .322/.423/.608 line in 168 PAs for Boise. The high average, high walk-rate, massive power combination was (and honestly, remains) a rare trifecta among Cubs hitting prospects, and thus Vogelbach became the object of a lot of lustful daydreaming among Cubs prospect hounds despite his defensive shortcomings and apparent DH future. As 2013 loomed with the promise of full-season ball for Vogelbach at Kane County, expectations were sky high.

Performance

Vogelbach's performance in 2013 would be attention-grabbing for any ordinary twenty-year old prospect. His .284/.364/.450 performance in 500 Kane County plate appearances was nothing to be ashamed of, and his .280/.455/.440 line and 24.2% walk rate in a short stint at Daytona to finish the year reinforced the mature approach he takes to the plate. But for a player whose raw power draws 80 grades and gaping stares from scouts and onlookers, a .450 slugging and .166 ISO — a more than 100 point drop from the Northwest League — inspired a fairly lukewarm reception from fans eagerly awaiting eye-popping power numbers and tape-measure home runs. Vogelbach managed only 38 extra base hits at Kane County, despite banging 20 in a third of the PAs at Boise the year previous. Our own Myles wrote about the myserious vanishing Vogelbomb a few weeks ago, questioning a significantly down strikeout rate at Kane County (15.2% vs 20.2% at Boise) and the Flowbro's slimmed-down physique.

Whatever the reason, Vogelbach's bat, while not exactly quiet, definitely lost a few decibals in 2013 — enough to raise concerns about what his power numbers will look like going forward.

Scouting

On the subject of Vogelbach's diminished power, a Baseball Prospectus Eyewitness Account had this to say:

80 raw, but utility is closer to future 60; swing isn’t naturally geared to easy lift; produces backspin—ball tough to track down to the gaps; may be best in two gears, reaching to power in hitter’s counts; when trying to drive, can get pull happy and make too much contact out front; will need to find balance between hard line-drive contact and over-the-fence efforts.

This would seem to suggest that, barring future adjustments and development, that Vogelbach's power numbers could remain underwhelming as he advances through the organizational ranks, as more advanced pitching should result in fewer hitters counts, and thus fewer opportunities for the Flowbro to take over-the-fence hacks. The B-Pro report suggests as much in reviewing Vogelbach's hit tool:

shows ability to make adjustments across at-bats, but can tripped up by quality sequencing; dangerous in fastball counts—when he figures out how to get to those counts more often, look out.

While Vogelbach has definitely dropped a ton of weight over his pro career, the fact that his raw power still draws elite scouting grades hints that the drop in ISO is more a reflection of a developmental need to adjust to better-quality pitching as opposed to a major change in his strength or natural ability to hit a baseball. The power still remains, but finding more ways to turn the favorable counts that don't become walks into extra-base hits is the clear next phase of his development.

It's also worth noting that, especially at Kane County this season, Vogelbach has destroyed righties while being essentially useless against lefties. He managed only a .257/.311/.321 line against LHP vs a .293/.381/.494 against righties, with only 5 XBHs against lefties vs 33 against righties. He'll have to take a step forward against lefties to avoid falling into bench/platoon prospect status.

Outlook

Vogelbach only got 66 regular-season PAs at Daytona after 500 in Kane County, so I'd expect him to return to the FSL to start next season. The trend has been for Dan to use his offseasons as an opportunity to dramatically improve his fitness and athleticism, and another winter of that would certainly improve his odds of adding some degree of defensive value to his toolset. His future will be determined ultimately by his bat, however, and his ability to turn his good approach into the high-average, high-power monster he was in short-season ball. Scouts remain confident that Vogelbach owns a major-league caliber bat; whether or not he's a first-division player will be determined by his defensive strides and how effectively he can turn his massive raw power into extra base hits.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Zeke DeVoss

Zeke DeVoss turned 23 in July and he played the entire season at High A Daytona. He's right handed, switch hits and moved to CF this season. 2nd base had been his position until 2013. As you can tell by the image at the right, he's a little guy. He's 5-10 and weighs 175 pounds. He was drafted out of Miami in the 3rd round in 2011. He was one of several overslot signing by the Cubs that year and his bonus was half a million dollars. He turned down a signing bonus with the Red Sox in 2009 out of high school (38th round pick). He made a wise choise.

Performance

Zeke DeVoss isn't going to show up on any top prospect lists. He may not even appear in the Cubs top 30 (he wasn't last year). He won't hit for a high average (.257 in his career, below .250 each of the last two seasons). He has little power (12 home runs in 1296 career plate appearances). He'll even strikeout more than you'd like for someone without power who has speed. He does have speed, but why are we even talking about DeVoss if all of this is true?

It's easy. The guy can get on base even though he's not hitting his way on. He's taken 162 walks over the last two seasons. He's been at 80 or higher each of the last two years in a full season league. In the Florida State League, only one player had a higher walk rate than DeVoss' 15.2% (Robert Refsnyder 15.4%). He had only a .246 batting average yet he managed a ridiculous .393 OBP (third in the FSL). As soon as he gets on, he can steal the next base. He stole 39 of them in 2013 and 34 the year before.

Word is that he became Tom Ricketts' favorite player after 2011 when he saw him take 3 walks in a game and took out the catcher in a home plate collision. I would imagine Ricketts has found another favorite player in the minor leagues and his name is probably Javier Baez, but that's a nice impression to leave the game with.

Overall in 2013, DeVoss hit .246/.393/.354. That was good enough for a .361 wOBA and 125 wRC+. Along with that and the 15.2% walk rate, he lowered his strikeout rate to 18.0%, stole 39 bases in 49 attempts and hit 6 home runs. His 12 home runs have come in the last two seasons. He also had 17 doubles and 5 triples.

The batting stats are very similar to the previous year at A level Peoria (the Cubs now play at this level in Kane County). In 2012 he hit .249/.382/.370. He stole 34 bases, had a .354 wOBA and 119 wRC+.

Scouting

There hasn't been a lot of information about DeVoss over the last year or so, but there is this from the two years ago.

The Red Sox made a run at DeVoss as a 38th-round pick out of high school in 2009, but he opted to attend Miami, then signed for $500,000 as a sophomore-eligible in the third round last summer. He has all the tools to be a leadoff hitter, most notably on-base ability and speed. He ranked fourth in NCAA Division I with 57 walks last spring, and he drew more free passes (33) than he had strikeouts (32) in his pro debut. A switchhitter, he's adept from both sides of the plate, though he won't hit for much power. He can run the 60-yard dash in 6.45 seconds and knows how to use his speed, swiping 16 bases in 20 tries as a pro. DeVoss split time between second base and the outfield with the Hurricanes, and Chicago deployed him mostly at second. He has the quickness for the position, and his hands and arm are good enough to keep him there, though he made 14 errors in 31 pro games. DeVoss has the wheels and instincts to handle center field if he can't cut it at second base. The Cubs aren't afraid to push players, so DeVoss could wind up in high Class A at some point in 2012. — Baseball America)

Getting on base and then using his speed is what DeVoss will have to do to stay relevant. I don't expect him to wow scouts or fans with anything other than those two skills. His speed should play well in CF and I seem to remember reading how fun he was to watch out there at some point this year.

Outlook

DeVoss will move to AA Tennessee next year and be further challenged. It's difficult for guys without power to show high walk rates, but his has been so high that I'm not as worried as I might be if it was only around 10-12%. DeVoss clearly has a good idea of what to swing at and what to take and that should pay off. The question is going to be whether or not pitchers at the higher levels begin to challenge him more than he's been challenged so far. There's no way to know at what ratio the strikes and balls are. It's very possible he's still a dangerous enough hitter that he's not being pitched to as frequently because of it. If that changes, DeVoss is going to have to hit for a higher average.

Even if he doesn't, he could still prove to be a bench player at the MLB level. His walk rate actually increased over A ball. Considering there doesn't seem to be much difference in walk rates between A and High A, that's a promising improvement.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews