Author: Sitrick

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Arodys Vizcaino

Arodys Vizcaino came into pro ball as a Yankees J2 signing in 2007 out of the Dominican Republic. Nobody seems to have his signing bonus listed anywhere, so let's assume it was a pittance. He went straight to the Gulf Coast League in 2008 and began moving up the prospect ranks, finishing the 2009 season as the Yankees' third best prospect according to BA, wielding monster velocity on his fastball and a devastating curveball. He was sent to the Braves in December of 2009 in a trade that sent him, Melky Cabrera, and Mike Dunn to Atlanta in exchange for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan. He continued as he always had, dominating the Sally League before getting promoted to the Braves' Carolina League affiliate.

It was after a short stint in the Carolina League that Vizcaino's injury woes first began to turn up, suffering a partial tear of an elbow ligament after just three starts and getting shut down for the remainder of the 2010 season. He returned in 2011 after a winter of rehabbing, and went back to beating up minor league foes and racing to the big leagues, posting a 3.06 ERA with 100 Ks in 97 innings across high-A, AA, and AAA ball. He got his first taste of the big leagues in August of that season, appearing in 17 games out of the Braves' bullpen and posting a 4.67 ERA while striking out a batter an inning.

In March of 2012, Vizcaino's torn elbow ligament finally gave out, and he underwent Tommy John surgery. He was traded to the Cubs in the Paul Maholm deal while still on the disabled list, and, due to setbacks in his recovery, has yet to throw a pitch for any level of the Cubs organization at this point.

Performance

Nothing to see here.
 

Scouting

Here's what BA had to say before the year began:

Before he got hurt, Vizcaino was one of baseball's top pitching prospects. He had a 93-95 mph fastball that topped out at 97, and it might be his second-best pitch. The only negative about his sharp curveball was that he threw it too much. Refining his changeup and improving his fastball command were on his to-do list. Assuming Vizcaino regains full health, the biggest question will be his future role. Chicago sees a potential No. 2 starter while his detractors think his track record indicates that he won't hold up in a rotation, even if his mechanics are fine. At worst, the Cubs think they have a closer.

The setbacks this season certainly haven't helped his projections any, and have given added volume to voices outside the organization that see his future in the bullpen. The Cubs are sending Vizcaino to the Arizona Fall League in order to get him facing hitters and, hopefully, prepare him to be a contributer in some way to the 2014 club. Fastball command has been a weakness for him up to this point, and the Tommy John recovery won't help it any in the short-term; as such, the walk totals may not be pretty as he gets re-acquainted with getting outs. The biggest question, though, remains how close Arodys can come to his pre-surgery form on what has been a difficult, setback-filled road back to pitching.

Outlook

Assuming he gets a decent workload, Vizcaino's AFL performance should provide a good deal of insight as to what to expect from him in 2014. If the velocity is down, the curveball lousy, and his elbow balky, Vizcaino could spend next season going the way of Ryan Madson. If the signs are more encouraging, one would think the logical step for next season would be to start with Vizcaino in the bullpen and let him get some major league innings under his belt. If he performs well, stays healthy, and showcases the electric stuff he had pre-injury, perhaps he would be an intriguing rotation candidate for 2015 and beyond. Until then, let him find his footing and prove he can be successful and get outs.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Justin Grimm

Continuing with the trend of pieces acquired via the Texas Rangers, today I'll look at Justin Grimm. Taken in the 5th round of the 2010 draft after a successful college career at the Univeristy of Georgia, Justin debuted at Class A and pitched the majority of the season at A+ ball (in 2011). It didn't take him long to break into the majors, as he dominated AA Frisco in 2012 en route to being called up on June 16, 2002. He had two starts (one of which was horrendous – 1IP, 6 ER) and was sent back down to AAA, where he toiled relatively unsuccessfully until a September call-up. He'd eventually win the #5 starter job in Texas going into 2013. 

Performance

He was terrible in the majors this year. He had 17 starts for Texas, and he reached the 7th inning twice (and one of those he allowed 7 runs). He pitched 5 or less innings 9 of the 17 starts; his ERA was 6.37. He was eventually shipped to Chicago, where he was sent to Iowa to start. While there, he had a 2.77 FIP, but a 4.68 ERA due to a really low strand rate and a relatively high BABIP. Perhaps most frustrating at the major league level was the 16.5% K percentage this year; it's really difficult when you can't strike players out, and any spike in BABIP is going to be really painful. He doesn't walk a ton of batters, but he walks about league average, so his proclivity to get balls in play led to a 1.62 WHIP this year, a sure recipe for disaster

Scouting

Grimm features 5 pitches. His primary offerings are a 4-seamer and a curve, which he throws at 92 and 78 mph respectively. He also has a change at 83 and a sinker at 91, but he throws those each around 10 percent of the time. 

Grimm is 6'3", with a high release point, so his fastball planes really pretty well. Unfortunately, it's not all that fast, and it doesn't move all that much. Average-ish velocity can play if you have great movement (some reports say Grimm can reach 96, and as a Cub he's averaged around 94.1 mph on the 4-seam), but he doesn't have great movement. On the other hand, is curveball is really active. It's 10 to 6 with considerable break to it. It's a better-than-average offering. His changeup needs work too but is probably playable when it's all said and done.

Outlook

Grimm needs to work on his fastball, and it's what is separating him from being either at the back of a rotation or the front of a bullpen. Grimm has the size and secondary offerings to definitely start (above-average curveball, average potential change), but his fastball is a 40, and you can't start with a 40 fastball unless you never throw it, and Grimm throws his 50 percent of the time. He should probably start the year in AAA and work it out, but it's an open question as to whether or not it gets solved. If it doesn't, he's probably going to end up as a swingman that will struggle to find anything more than a string of league-minimum contracts. If he can get the fastball just to average, though, he'll make for a fine middle-to-back rotation piece.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Zack Godley

RHP Zack Godley came to the Cubs as their tenth round pick in this year's Rule 4 draft. A senior out of Tennessee, Godley entered the draft coming off a 2013 season that saw him strike out 98 batters in in 108.1 innings and toss 6 complete games, posting a 3.49 ERA on the year. His signing was pretty drama-free, announced along with a pack of other 2013 draftees on June 18th. Godley signed for well under the pick's $139,000 slot, accepting a $35,000 contract. After getting a single appearance in an AZL game, he was shipped off to Boise to begin his career.

Performance

All the small sample size caveats apply here, but the Northwest League was damn good to Godley, who appeared in 13 games and tossed 25.2 innings of 1.75 ERA ball. The stats that are there look as universally excellent as you'd expect from a 23 year old college draftee facing short-season hitters. He struck out 27 in his 25.2 frames, walking only 5, allowing no homers, and keeping the ball on the ground (1.76 GO/FO rate). NWL hitters were held to a .217 average against Godley, and he allowed only 6 runs total on the campaign. In short, Godley was dominant in a league he should be dominating.

Scouting

Godley has a solid pitcher's body, standing 6'3 and clocking in at 245 lbs. As with a lot of this year's late round draftees, there's not a lot of video out on him. The best look I could get at his throwing motion was in this feature on him:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHo0NwaGK2Q

You mostly get quick looks at him from crappy angles, but what sticks out to me is a short, violent arm action that seems to me to be a red flag for injury, despite his durability in college. Given that as a starter his fastball sat in the high 80s to low 90s, Godley's future probably lies in the bullpen. Some of the notable parts of Baseball America's report on him pre-draft:

Godley throws strikes with his fastball and has proved durable at 6-foot-3, 245 pounds. His fastball sits 88-90 mph and he fills up the bottom half of the strike zone. His curveball is fringe-average and flashes better. His changeup was a solid-average to plus pitch in 2012 but backed up in 2013 as his curve improved. Godley hit 95 mph as a reliever and probably fits better in that role as a pro.

A strike-throwing middle relief prospect with good secondary stuff that has potential to develop seems like a nice value for a tenth rounder you picked up for pennies.

Outlook

Godley will almost certainly start 2014 with Kane County. He worked enough multi-inning efforts in Boise where I could see the organization giving lip-service to the idea of keeping him as a starter, but I hope they keep him in the role he thrived in at Boise, working multiple innings in relief, and moving him quickly through the ranks. Being the fourth or fifth bullpen guy on the 2015 club out of spring training isn't totally out of the question if he pitches well next season, and if the fastball really does get to 95 out of the pen and the curve and change reach their potential, who knows, he could peak as a really nice eighth inning guy. Regardless, he's got enough polish and collegiate pedigree that I'd be shocked if he didn't have a major league role of some sort down the road. A high-floor, cheap pick with potential to develop in the tenth round? More of these, Thoyer, please.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Duane Underwood

duane-underwoodDuane Underwood stands 6-2 and weighs 205 pounds and unless you're blind, you can see he's a right-handed pitcher. He was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2012 Draft (67th overall). He was rated by Baseball America as the 104th ranked draft prospect and was the Cubs fourth pick behind Albert Almora, Pierce Johnson and Paul Blackburn. He signed for $1.05 million. He turned 19 on July 20th.

Performance

He was able to get into five Arizona Rookie League games in 2012 and threw only 8.2 innings. It wasn't an impressive first impression, but it was just a few innings. Underwood stayed behind at extended spring training as expected and headed to short-season league Boise when their season opened in late June. He started 11 games and had 14 appearances overall. Like 2012, they were also unimpressive.

In 54.1 innings, he struckout only 13.9% of the batters faced and he walked 10.4% of them. He also hit 6 batters and threw 8 wild pitches, though the latter is also affected by the catcher of course. He gave up 4 home runs and ended the season with a 4.97 ERA and 4.67 FIP.

Scouting

Duane Underwood has a really good fastball at times, but it's erratic and he struggles to locate it. He also struggles to keep his velocity the same. At times he's reached the upper 90s, but quickly dropped to the low 90s and even high 80s. He has two a curve and a changeup that have some promise, but need a lot of work. He was ranked 17th in the organization by BA, 12th by Sickels and 18th by mlb.com entering the season. I'll let the experts discuss this in more detail.

Underwood was one of the more enigmatic players in the 2012 draft. On some days, he'd hit 98 mph with his fastball and flash first-round talent. On others, he couldn't command his heater and would dip into the upper 80s quickly, looking more like a fourth-rounder. The Cubs split the difference, drafting him in the second round and signing him away from a Georgia commitment for $1.05 million. He's very athletic for a pitcher and would have been a two-way player for the Bulldogs. Underwood generally pitches at 91-94 mph with his fastball but it varies from 88-98 and he doesn't always know where it's going. His curveball is similarly inconsistent. He'll show some feel for spinning the ball, but he'll also overthrow the curve and wind up with a soft, loopy offering that's begging to be crushed. He controls his changeup better than his other pitches, but he throws it too hard and doesn't get enough separation from his fastball. The Cubs worked to get Underwood to stop rushing his delivery in instructional league, and they were pleased with the results. They'll probably keep him in extended spring to start 2013 before sending him to short-season Boise in June. – Baseball America

Any talk about Underwood is going to be about projection. The Georgia high school product is extremely raw, but very athletic. There is a lot of work to be done, but if it comes together, the Cubs will have an electric arm on their hands. His fastball is his best now, and future, pitch, one that can sit in the low 90s and hit the mid-90s, albeit inconsistently. He has the chance to have a plus curve and perhaps even an above-average changeup, but those secondary pitches are a long way off. It's really all about his delivery. If he can learn how to repeat well and be efficient, his arm works really well. Underwood finished off instructs with a flourish and the Cubs hope that carries over to 2013. – mlb.com

12) Duane Underwood, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+: One of my favorite players from the 2012 draft. He's erratic but was also one of the youngest guys in the entire draft class. When right, he's got upper-90s velocity and promising secondary pitches. Needs more consistency in all respects, as his velocity varies and his command is problematic. – Sickels

So far he's not fooling any hitters with the good velocity, but sounds as though he struggles to maintain it and doesn't offer good enough secondary pitches yet. He's still quite young though.

Outlook

Underwood will be moved to Kane County at the start of next year and we'll see how he does with his first taste of full season league. He has to make some considerable improvements to make the promotion last long, but he certainly has the fastball to do it. The Cubs will take their time with Underwood. He'll be 20 next July and there's no hurry. Don't start penciling him into the Cubs rotation in 2015 or anything. That won't happen.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Dillon Maples

Dillon Maples was a highly thought of right-handed high school pitcher who was rated 46th among Baseball America's top 200 draft prospects in 2011. He had a strong committment to North Carolina and dropped to the 14th round where the Cubs picked him up. In order to get him to sign, the Cubs gave him $2.5 million signing bonus, which is the equivalent of first round money. Maples is 6-3 and weighs 195 pounds. He turned 21 this year on May 9th.

Performance

Maples didn't pitch in 2011 and almost as quickly as he showed up to spring training in 2012 he was having his right elbow looked at. He had some sorness in his forearm and there was a strained ligament in the elbow. The team and the doctors chose a program of rest and then rehab rather than surgery. Maples would spend much of 2012 rehabbing and the 10+ innings he did work at rookie ball were kind of ugly. He showed the kind of location that scouts feared at the time of the draft.

2013 didn't turn out much better for Maples either. He stayed behind at extrended spring training until early May at which point he went to class A Kane County. He threw about as poorly as possible once getting there. He walked a whopping 17.8% of the batters faced at this level over 11 appearances and 34.1 innings. It was quite clear Maples needed to face lesser talented hitters and the Cubs sent him down to low class A Boise.

The final results were a lot better, but he still walked over 10% of the batters he faced. He has had a healthy strikeout rate. It was 22.5% back at Boise, but under 20% at Kane County. He's going to have to throw more strikes and so far we just haven't seen it.

Scouting

Dillon Maples is not as highly thought of at this point as he was after the draft. He was ranked 5th in the Cubs organization by Baseball America after 2011, but had fallen to 18th after 2012. He'll fall even further after this season.

His fastball sits in the 91-96 mph range and he also has a good curve. He's able to locate the curve better than the fastball and has worked on a changeup, but it's not been very good to this point. There are questions with his mechanics and some scouts just don't like it.

According to Baseball America, the Cubs don't want to change them and they only want to simplify them, which I'm on board with. It's fun to think teams should just force pitchers to throw with perfect mechanics, but you don't invest money in a player and then change everything that made him worth the investment in the first place. You just have to work around what the player has and build from there.

He has a short arm action, which scouts are afraid are going to cause arm troubles. For a pitcher who has already had elbow issues, this is something to watch. As mentioned, scouts have always questioned his ability to throw strikes.

Outlook

Maples will return to class A Kane County next season and the Cubs hope the results will be better. He turns 22 early next season so he really needs to prove he can pitch not just well enough against A-ball hitters, but he's going to have to excel. He has a good enough fastball and curve combo to do it, but he hasn't had very good command and that's where we'll see the biggest improvement if we see any.

His ceiling as a number 2 starter hasn't changed, but the odds of him reaching it have changed significantly. He's a much worse prospect than before, but still has the potential to be a very good pitcher. I'm just afraid we're not really going to know until he gets to High A Daytona or AA Tennessee and I doubt the Cubs pull the trigger and promote him early enough for us get that look. Regardless, he remains a long way away from the big leagues.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: CJ Edwards (UPDATE)

When the Cubs traded Matt Garza, most of the inches on the deal surrounded Mike Olt, who had been linked to the Cubs for quite some time. Olt was an intriguing prospect on the way down…but he's not the focus of this article. C.J. Edwards was the real gem of the deal. In 3 years, when people think of Olt the way they think of David Kelton, people won't even remember that Edwards wasn't the centerpiece of the deal. Drafted in the 48th round of the 2011 class, Edwards has done nothing but blow the competition away.

Performance

Edwards was acquired on July 23, 2013, in a package with Justin Grimm, Mike Olt, and Neil Ramirez. He had a 1.83 ERA in A class Hickory; he was sent to Daytona when he reached the Cubs' organization. Used exclusively as a starter on the season, Edwards pitched 116.1 innings in 24 starts, with 155 strikeouts (!!!) and 44 walks. His WHIP was 1.006. That's incredibly nasty.

Player K%
Brett Jackson, 2013 33.0%
C.J. Edwards, 2013 33.1%

He walked 8.8% of batters, but that's not a real issue. What could be an issue, however, is his questionable durability. He went an average of 4.2 innings per start this year. I'll get to a few reasons why that is the case in the next section, but lets focus on his 2013 performance (there's still more to gawk at). 

Edwards has surrendered only 1 HR in his entire minor league career. That, combined with his freakishly low BABIP (.260 with the Cubs) meant that opponents hit .167 against him this year. That's just an insane number, and it tells you that there's no reason he should see A+ next year. He's never had a FIP of 2 or higher!!!

Scouting

The reason that the Rangers parted with Edwards is simple; he's 6'2" (good!) and only 155 pounds (bad!). He just can't put on weight, and his troubles there are well documented. He's really lanky, with a high effort delivery, which means that it's an open question whether or not he could ever pitch 200 innings in a season, both due to injury or just overtaxation of his body.

Here's a good video of C.J.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLL1TZGKxo4]

 

The first I notice are his huge legs. He's essentially all legs, and it's what allow him to generate that low to mid 90's fastball while only weighing 155. It's a long pitching motion, and he doesn't hide the ball very well, but those aren't deal breakers. 

He's got a fastball that has easy velo, but his delivery is fairly erratic. It probably needs to clean up a little bit. People say that his delivery is deceptive, but it didn't look it in that video. He's got a curveball and a changeup that are both works in progress; it's important to keep in mind that changeups usually don't finish developing until you've been in professional baseball for a few years; you don't throw one very often in high school or college (as Parks pointed out in the FA podcast last week). The curveball in that video looked pretty juicy (go to 3:39; clearly, the catcher sets up away, but it's still a nice curve that falls in late for a strikeout), though it's one thing to throw it to A+ hitters and another entirely to throw it at a real hitter.

It's an open question whether or not his frame supports even 160 innings, and he has had trouble bulking up. If he can put on even 10 pounds of good weight, he has the stuff to be a legit #2-#3 starter. That's upside that just doesn't exist in our system. If the Cubs decide that's not going to happen, he's got the ability to be like a Craig Kimbrel or Kenley Jansen if it all works out. The heat tops out at 98, reportedly, and he's got some natural move to it. 

Outlook

I'm always afraid to get excited about a pitcher, doubly one that doesn't have the frame to start as it is. However, Edwards has one of, if not the, highest ceiling of any pitching prospect we have. He'll start the season at AA, and the only thing I care about is getting to 150 innings. If he can do that, he could be one of the top 2 or 3 prospects on the team. He'll be in the Top 100 this year (as will Soler, Baez, Bryant, and Almora). I think the Cubs will be slow with Edwards because there's no sense in rushing him with his body, but C.J. should have a very bright future, wherever on the Cubs' staff he ends up. 

UPDATE

Jason Parks responded personally to Brett's article about C.J. Edwards earlier today. It's a pretty worthwhile exchange.

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    : Cubs Pitching Prospect C.J. Edwards is Getting a Whole Lot of Love

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    Edwards is a nice prospect, but his name doesn't belong in the same sentence as Syndergaard. Not even close.

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    Edwards just have more to prove in your mind, or is it also a lack of TOR projection?

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    I really like the arm; very easy and crisp. Both CB/CH flash. But putting a TORP label on him has little merit.

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    what do u think he needs to do to prove he's a starter. 200IP?

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    He might be able to start; arsenal is there. I just don't see a heavy workload in that body. He's very slight

     

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    12:30 PM – 13 Sep 13 · Details

     

     

     

     

     

     
     
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    If he weighed 170 lbs instead of 155 how would you view him? 15lbs sounds easier to add than a 4th pitch no?

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    He's been trying to add weight since he signed; I know him personally. It doesn't take. Very narrow frame.

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    he's built like clay buchholz

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    No; he's much, much thinner. Not all that similar.

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2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Brett Jackson

Brett Jackson came to the Cubs as the 31st overall pick out of UC Berkeley, selected in the first round of the 2009 draft for a $972,000 signing bonus. Jackson came on quickly in pro ball, powering through the AZL, the Northwest League, and the Midwest League before the 2009 season ended and began 2010 with Daytona in the FSL. Jackson hit well at every level of his minor league ascension, and though he had quite a bit of swing and miss to his game, with strikeout rates starting at 25% and rising at every stop through the organization, he showcased a very patient approach, consistently posting walk rates north of 10% while showcasing solid power and basestealing potential. It became something of a running twitter gag that the Brett Jackson Cycle was a strikeout, a walk, a homer, and a stolen base. The hope was that Jackson could become a Drew Stubbs-type, offering good on-base percentage and good pop while playing an acceptable defense in center. 

Ominous signs began to manifest themselves at the beginning of 2012, when Jackson offered a fairly disappointing .256/.338/.479 line in the offense friendly PCL, particularly after Jackson had hit .297/.388/.551 in 48 games there the year before. Still, Jackson got himself a taste of the show in the second half, struggling to a .175/.303/.342 slash line and .114 wOBA in 44 games with the big league club.

The Cubs' coaching staff spent the offseason working with Jackson to re-tool his swing, hoping to drop eye-popping strikeout rates and help him make more contact without sacrificing power. He came into Spring Training with glowing reports from the organization about his progress and a whole lot of optimism surrounding his ability to adjust to big league pitching. The hope was that, after a period of solid performance in Des Moines, Jackson would prove himself ready to be a successful part of the major league club.

Performance

It's been an ugly, ugly year for Jackson, who's seen last year's hiccup turn into a free-fall in both his prospect status as well as his organizational level, starting the year struggling badly at Iowa, missing significant time injuries, and eventually being demoted to Double-A. He continued to struggle in tennesee, and his final lines for the year were incredibly disappointing, adding up to a .200/.309/.284 line at Iowa and a .223/.300/.367 line at Tennessee. Most disturbing is the complete vanishing of Jackson's power, managing only 6 home runs after hitting 20 and 19 in the past two seasons, respectively, and hitting only 21 extra base hits all season. His walk rate at Iowa was only 8.7% and 11.8% at Tennessee.  His speed stats were down as well, failing to crack double digits after stealing 30 bags the past two seasons. At one point in the midst of his injury woes he even managed to get himself get himself lost. All in all, 2013 will be a season Jackson tries his best to forget.

Scouting

Jackson's achilles heel has always been his propensity to swing and miss, and it's a problem that has gotten worse and worse as he's gotten older and higher up in the organizational ranks. The nadir of this was the 41.5% rate Jackson K'ed at in his 44 games with Chicago last season, but he hasn't posted a strikeout rate below 25% since his first go at Double-A. The much-ballyhooed swing changes were supposed to mitigate this, and the initial word around the organization going into camp was that Jackson had made a lot of progress in putting bat to ball.

Outside the organization, however, observers were less confident about the changes. Keith Law in particular had this to say about B-Jax's new swing:

Jackson used to have a very short stride without much of a load, and his hands, which have always been quick, would always seem to start forward from a different position. Now, he’s definitely more consistent, starting from a consistent spot with a slightly deeper load, but his stride is very long, leaving him with a wide base before he even gets his hands started, and producing a swing that looks unnaturally long for him. The stride doesn’t get his weight transfer started early enough, and he tends to roll that front foot over through contact. Everything we liked about Jackson before, from the speed to the athleticism to the bat speed to the arm, is still present, but I wish I could tell you I thought this new swing would solve his contact problems.

Law's remarks would prove prescient, given Jackson's struggles this season as Jackson has spent the season striking out once every three chances, all while seeing an 80+ point drop in his ISO. More recently, Jason Parks was asked in a Baseball Prospectus chat what kind of future B-Jax had in front of him:

ZigZagBurners (Right near the beach): If I'm Brett Jackson, my next move is….

Jason Parks: I hear Japan is nice

That about says it all, really. Jackson still has a good eye and very good makeup, but those are about the only things going for him at this point. His bat-to-ball skills are as lousy as ever, and he's seemingly lost the ability to drive the ball when he does square it up. It all adds up to a profile that doesn't look nearly as optimistic as it did even a year ago.

Overall

There's not much good to say. You can strike out a ton, and you can not hit for much power, but you can't really do both and still be a major leaguer. Given that Tennessee has proven a struggle for B-Jax, I'm not even sure Japan is a viable option at this point. And with the difficult 40-man decisions the Cubs are going to have to make this offseason, it would not at all shock me to see Jackson included as a reclamation throw-in as part of a trade.

If he does remain with the Cubs, I'd expect him to return to Tennessee. He's going to have to hit like a man possessed to stay there, with Jorge Soler, Albert Almora, and potentially even Kris Bryant passing through the Smokies' outfield in 2014. His major league future is already looking a shade north of nonexistant, and if he repeats his 2013 campaign next year, he'll be joining Hayden Simpson pretty damn quick. 

 

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

2013 Cubs Prospects Review: Ben Wells

ben-wellsAs you can see in the image at the right, Ben Wells is a big right-handed pitcher. The Cubs drafted Wells in the 7th round in the 2010 Draft. Wells stands 6-3 and weighs 220 pounds. Wells was more highly thought of that your typical 7th rounder and signed for $530,000, which was the equivalent of late 2nd round money that year. He had committed to a junior college, but SEC schools were luring him away and was expected to not sign with an MLB team.

Performance

Despite being drafted in 2010, Wells entered the 2013 season with only 132 professional innings of work. He did not pitch after being drafted, which is not uncommon. He spent a half season in 2011 at extended spring training and then half a season at Boise. He dealt with elbow problems much of 2012 and only pitched 45 innings.

Prior to this season, the results had been very good considering his age, but there were also concerns. His strikeout rate was quite low, but he did walk very few batters and kept the ball on the ground. He was promoted to HIgh A at the start of the season anyway and once again the results were very good. But questions remain.

He struckout a very low 14.9% of batters this year and his walk rate actually grew to 8.6%. He's a groundball machine so can probably get away with fewer strikeouts than a lot of other pitchers, but that's low. Among qualified pitchers in the Florida State League, he had the 7th lowest strikeout percentage.

I've mentioned this throughout the last year in the comments, but Ben Wells is going to have to strikeout more batters than he has to thus far in his career.

Scouting

Ben Wells pitched in the upper 80s in high school, but by the time of the draft he was sitting in the 90-94 range. He still throws the same sinking fastball and a pretty good slider from what I've read. Wells was ranked 24th in the Cubs organization after 2010 and 25th after 2011 by Baseball America. He was not in their top 30 this year after his injury-filled 2012 season. Prior to that season, Baseball America had this to say:

Wells was unknown to all but a few area scouts until shortly before the 2010 draft, when his fastball jumped about 5 mph and he threw a five-inning perfect game in the Arkansas 7-A high school championship game. The Cubs took him in the seventh round and signed him at the deadline for $530,000. Though he faced limited competition as an amateur, he survived against older hitters when he made his pro debut at Boise last summer. Wells' weapon of choice is a heavy sinker that helped him post a 3.8 groundout/airout ratio in 2011. He threw it mostly at 87-90 mph early in the season before sitting at 90-94 in August. His hard slider shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch and his changeup has a chance to be a solid third offering. While Wells has a soft body, he's athletic and repeats his delivery well, giving him good control. He has uncommon mound presence for a teenager, which will come in handy when he advances to low Class A in 2012.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him creep back into the top 30 this year, but I think some people will want to see an increase in that strikeout rate before they put him back. A solid season in AA could really boost him entering 2014.

Outlook

Wells will move to AA Tennessee in 2014 and hopefully we'll see an improvement in that strikeout rate. He's got a big frame and a better fastball than you'd think for someone with such a low rate. It seems he should be striking out more batters, but so far it just hasn't worked.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears (1PM ET, CBS)

It's the first game of the season, as the Bengals take on the Bears. Last year both teams finished the year 10-6; while that mark was good enough in the putrid AFC, the Bears were on the outside looking in last season. 

Bears Run vs Bengals Run Defense

Cincinnati is a team that can be run on. Last year, the Bengals were 23rd in the league in rush defense (per Football Outsiders). Additionally, the unit got worse as the season progressed, allowing 6 100-yard rushers in the last 8 games of the regular season. I'm not sure the unit got any better in spite of the James Harrison signing, and they are going to need to be great.

Matt Forte is one of the league's premier running backs, though you wouldn't know it from the OCs he's had to deal with. He's probably the best pass-catcher in the league (for a RB), and he's an excellent blocker as well. It doesn't hurt that he has great running vision too, though he lacks the top gear that would otherwise make him a threat to score on every play. I'd look for him to cut ribbons in this defense. Michael Bush is a very good backup RB, as well.

Bengals Run vs Bears Run Defense

You have to wonder if the loss of Brian Urlacher is going to affect this team's run defense more than what's been talked about. Urlacher is rightly heralded as a great pass defender up the middle, but he (until recently) was also a great run stuffer. In his place is the D.J. Williams/Jon Bostic tandem; it remains to be seen how they'll respond in the trenches. On the other hand, the Bears were the best run defense in the league last year, and it wasn't even particularly close (San Francisco had a GREAT run defense, but the Bears were clearly better than even that unit (or Tampa Bay)).

This is the task that Giovani Bernard is going to inherit in his first week. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the nominal starter, but he's just keeping the seat warm for Bernard, who I expect will actually see more touches in this game. I think Bernard is going to be a very good RB in the NFL, but he's not going to look it today. 

Bears Pass vs Bengals Pass Defense

This is the million dollar question. The Bears are going to a West Coast Offense, which is fundamentally different than previous years. It requires precise timing, great intermediate precision, and a smart quarterback. We don't really have any of those (though Cutler isn't a dumb quarterback- he just makes some dumb decisions). It plays against Cutler's strengths somewhat. However, Alshon Jeffery is the platonic ideal of a WC WR: he's big, he runs crisp routes, and he has great hands. He goes out an grabs balls instead of letting the balls come to him. His lack of speed (to be nice) will be downplayed in this system. Combine this with the traditionally shoddy play of the Bengals' secondary (with regards to #2 receivers), and Jeffery is poised to have a nice little game.

The WCO should theoretically but less strain on the Bears OL, which is a good thing. They were terrible last year; so bad that their starting LT last year was just cut from the team. In fact, only one player from last year's OL is even on the team this year (the overrated Roberto Garza). I think people have really liked what they've seen from this line so far, but it's the preseason which means little and less. 

The Bengals have a pretty scary defensive line. It gets even worse with the addition of James Harrison. There's every chance that Cutler is going to be running for his life for 60 minutes. The secondary is average, but they look better than they are when opposing teams have to scramble to just get rid of the ball.

Bengals Pass vs Bears Pass Defense

Another important matchup. Andy Dalton is a solid quarterback who has a few weapons to work with. A.J. Green might be the best WR in the league without the last name Johnson, and Mohamed Sanu showed some things in his rookie season. They drafter Tyler Eifert out of ND, who could also be a factor (I'm not a Jermaine Gresham fan, per se). Sanu lives in the red-zone, so that'll be something to watch for during the game. The Bengals suddenly have plenty of options to close out drives with a score.

The Bears have a great pass defense, though they'll miss Urlacher effectively shutting down the middle of the field. Instead, they'll rely on Shea McClellin to break out and actually get to the quarterback with some frequency this year. Julius Peppers is a HOF at DE, but he's getting up there in age and will need frequent breaks. Henry Melton is a badass and should also get his share of pain in. They'll need to get to Dalton early and often; while the Bears sent two CB to the Pro Bowl last year, they aren't as good as they looked last year. Jennings is 2 years removed from being the worst CB in football, and Tillman is always injury-prone. 

Special Teams

Devin Hester is back to being ST only. We can only think what they ruined by making him a WR for so long. The Bears have an incredible ST squad, though they lose wizard Dave Toub after he didn't get the HC job (he'll get one someday). Cincinnati also has a great ST unit, though not necessarily elite.

Prediction

I think this is about as close a game as the Bears will face all season. These are both fringe Super Bowl contenders in my opinion (though Bengals are closer by virtue of being in the far easier conference). I think there's going to be some growing pains with the WCO, but Forte will more than make up for Cutler's poor game. The Bears will beat a very suspect OL in pass protection and get to Andy Dalton quite often, and a low scoring game will favor the home Bears team.

Chicago 17, Cincinnati 14

 

2013 Cubs Prospects In Review: Shawon Dunston, Jr.

Shawon Dunston, Jr. came to the Cubs as part of the 2011 draft spending spree, shelling out $1.275 million to pry the 11th round legacy pick away from a commitment to Vanderbilt University. Scouting reports at the time universally praised his athleticism as an outfielder but were also fairly unanimous that he was quite raw, and the fact that the Cubs gave him enough money to pry him away from college seemed somewhat unexpected. Here’s what BA had to say at the time of the draft:

While the elder Dunston was drafted out of high school…most scouts believe his son would be better off going to Vanderbilt, where he's a key recruit. Dunston has a slender, 6-foot-2, 175-pound frame, and it's obvious that his best baseball is in front of him, and he's surprisingly raw. He is an above-average runner, which helps both on the bases and in center field. Unlike his father, he swings from the left side of the plate. As Dunston fills out, he could grow into gap power and be an average hitter. Scouts love his speed, passion for the game and bloodlines, but they may not want to buy him out of school at this point.

The rawness that scouts saw as a draft prospect manifested itself in Dunston’s 2012 season at Boise, where he struggled to a .577 OPS and earned a demotion to the AZL. Dunston would call this “the most humbling thing that’s happened to me,” saying that “It was the first time like I really felt I’d failed in baseball.” Regaining his confidence at the lower level, Dunston finished the season with a .767 OPS in Arizona and left ready to challenge Boise again in 2013.

Performance

Dunston has acquitted himself admirably in his 2013 season for the Hawks, posting a .290/.378/.358 line in 49 games, stealing 12 bases and posting a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate (12.6% compared to 11.2%). While he will never be a masher, his .067 ISO on he season is a precipitous drop from last year’s .124 and .138 marks at Arizona and Boise, respectively. That’s a bit concerning, but he’s still just twenty years old and there’s still time for him to grow into a bit of the gap/doubles power scouts projected for him at the time of the draft.

A leg injury sapped some of the positive momentum out of Dunston’s season, sending him to the DL on July 21st and keeping him out for three weeks. Upon returning on August 15th through the rest of the season, Dunston hit only .200 with only one extra base hit (a double).

Overall, 2013 was a step in the right direction for Dunston, who needed a good performance in his second attempt at Boise and gave one.

Scouting

Take a look at these two videos, the first recorded in 2010, well before Dunston was drafted, and the other from this July.

Neither of these are at great angles, but even so, you can see how the high school Dunston’s swing looks long, loose, unbalanced, and kind of whippy. Contrast that to Dunston’s swing now, where he looks much more balanced, more direct to the ball, and not at all seeming like he’s going to fall over after every swing like he does in his high school BP. If nothing else, it’s an interesting benchmark along the road of a player refining his raw tools into professional baseball skills.

Dunston’s speed grades out between 60-65 on the 20-80 scale depending on which scout you ask, and he’s been a successful threat in 2013, stealing 12 bags against only 2 CS. I would have thought the lousy performance upon returning from his leg injury might reflect him coming back before he was completely healthy, but half of Dunston’s stolen bases on the season came after he returned to the lineup, which seems to undermine that notion. Sometimes a slump is just a slump, I suppose.

I haven’t seen grades on his arm or defense, but the general sentiment among reports is that his arm is good, but not quite as powerful as his father’s, which is certainly an ambitious benchmark to live up to. Nobody really has anything to say about his defense in center, which makes me think it’s probably neither good nor bad for his level of development.

The big question mark is Dunston’s power, and whether or not he can drive enough balls into gaps for doubles to keep pitchers careful with him and let his solid approach come to light.

Overall

Dunston has performed well enough to earn his first taste of full-season ball in Kane County next season, and should start 2014 as Albert Almora’s replacement in center. Where he goes from there depends on whether or not he can develop enough strength and in-game power to make his solid OBP/contact skills play. As it stands, he will likely face enough wild pitchers to maintain a nice-looking average and OBP until he gets to Tennessee, where he’ll face the same challenges to his soft-spoken bat that Matt Szczur is currently struggling with. How he responds to pitchers that can control the strike zone and challenge him hard inside will really be what solidifies or implodes his future as a major league prospect.

 

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews