Prior to the Cubs signing Carlos Marmol to a 3-year extension this past offseason, there was a lot of talk about how Marmol was one of those guys who could have a very low BABIP. His BABIP as a reliever since 2007 had been .241, which is well below the average and even below the average for an extreme fly ball pitcher. It’s well over .300 this season and since the beginning of 2010 his BABIP is .312. That’s higher than we’d expect even for an average pitcher, but quite a bit higher for someone like Marmol.
I’m not highlighting Marmol’s BABIP regression as an I told you so. I thought the contract they signed him to was a good one at the time and projections said he’d be worth it. I still feel confident he’ll be worth it, but I wasn’t so sure the Cubs should sign a reliever to that contract who still had 2 years of club control. One of the reasons people pointed to in support of signing him was that he could maintain a low BABIP, but there wasn’t really any reason to believe that he could.
I didn’t expect him to have a .331 BABIP this season, but it’s not any more surprising than a .250 BABIP would be. I’m only posting this as an example of how we have to regress statistics even if our eyes tell us he’s just very hard to hit. Marmol has still maintained a low HR/FB rate, which has been the difference between being a decent closer and being a terrible one. His HR/FB rate is still more than double what it was the previous two seasons combined. Here’s to hoping his HR/FB rate can remain quite low.
The increased BABIP results in an increased batting average allowed and thanks to Marmol’s poor control, he’s allowed batters to have an OBP of .357, which is quite a bit worse than league average.
Comments
Wow, the Cubs actually lead (in WPA) in the ninth after Aramis’ single.
ACTQuote Reply
Soto hit a home run, but still had a WPA of -.241.
ACTQuote Reply
Good writeup. You’re spot on.
The hits are a huge reason why he’s so much worse this year than last. He’s already given up more hits in 2011 than he did in all of 2010, in 20 fewer innings. His peripherals are pretty similar. And as much as the meltdowns stick in our head, he only has 2 more than he did last season (8 this year vs 6 last year).
The real Marmol is probably someplace in between his historic dominance last year and his mediocrity this year. But really, that would be worth the contract right there. The 2008/2009 version of Marmol – which is probably what I’d expect going forward – was still pretty awesome.
The WreckardQuote Reply
I should have added that I didn’t write this today because of the meltdown yesterday. I’d been meaning to post a little blurb about this for a couple weeks and just finally got around to it since we needed a new thread.
I expected the regression so I’m not at all shocked. I expect he’ll bounce back a bit, but not be anywhere near as good as he was prior to this season. I still think the contract ends up looking fine even if we take into account arbitration win value.
mb21Quote Reply
Nice writeup MB. Good timing even though you didn’t intend it as such, as most of Cub Nation hates Marmol with the fury of a thousand suns.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=The Wreckard]
His peripherals are pretty similar. [/quote]You mean, besides his K rate dropping by more than 4 per nine innings?
ACTQuote Reply
Also worth noting on Marmol – he’s given up more home runs this year (3) than he did in 2009 and 2010 combined.
Not that it’s a big deal when the number is that small, but each one has happened to be pretty costly and probably made it seem like he’s worse than he is.
Frankly, his season reminds me of Kevin Gregg’s year as a Cub a bit, where he wasn’t pitching very well but a bit of bad luck made it seem worse than it actually was.
The WreckardQuote Reply
Anyway, right now my biggest concerns with Marmol are his drop in fastball velocity, and the fact that his slider sometimes is flat (which I don’t remember ever happening last year).
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]You mean, besides his K rate dropping by more than 4 per nine innings?[/quote]To his career numbers I meant. His K/9 is right back to his merely awesome career rate, as opposed to his inhuman 2010 rate.
The WreckardQuote Reply
Yeah, there was no way he was going to strike out the same amount as he did in 2010. I think we all expected about what he’s done this year with both walks and strikeouts, or at least I did anyway.
mb21Quote Reply
This is irrelevant but funny to me:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Anyway, right now my biggest concerns with Marmol are his drop in fastball velocity, and the fact that his slider sometimes is flat (which I don’t remember ever happening last year).[/quote]The velocity is the biggest concern. He’s dropped about 3 mph off his fastball from last season.
mb21Quote Reply
Marmol’s velocity was up about 1 mph last season over the previous 2 seasons so some of his drop this year was expected.
mb21Quote Reply
He was throwing his slider slower earlier in the season, but lately he’s been back up in the mid-80’s. I don’t know why that is.
ACTQuote Reply
As if on cue, Harry just posted this on Marmol: http://www.cubsfx.com/2011/08/converging-marmol.html
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]As if on cue, Harry just posted this on Marmol: http://www.cubsfx.com/2011/08/converging-marmol.html%5B/quote%5DI learned that Marmol allows more balls on the ground that I thought. I then checked Fangraphs and he is more of a groundball pitcher. I would never have guessed that. I always assumed he was a fly ball pitcher. Weird.
mb21Quote Reply
It’s good see that we still have MIF who get thrown out at 3B on a grounder to SS
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Jokisch makes his first start for Tennessee tonight. He has been in Peoria all season so this should be interesting.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]It’s good see that we still have MIF who get thrown out at 3B on a grounder to SS[/quote]
The sad part is that he was already on third base and was trying to get home.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]This is irrelevant but funny to me:
This would have to make the Rays an X-Wing fighter.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]This would have to make the Rays an X-Wing fighter.[/quote]
Does that mean the Red Sox are the Millenium Falcon, or a Star Destroyer?
They just uploaded the game-ending TOOTBLAN/fails:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18120001
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I learned that Marmol allows more balls on the ground that I thought. I then checked Fangraphs and he is more of a groundball pitcher. I would never have guessed that. I always assumed he was a fly ball pitcher. Weird.[/quote]
The gist of the argument for Marmol = low BABIP was that his stuff translated into lots of weak contact (grounders and popups), so I’m not that surprised to see it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Does that mean the Red Sox are the Millenium Falcon, or a Star Destroyer?
They just uploaded the game-ending TOOTBLAN/fails:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18120001%5B/quote%5D
The Red Sox are the Executor
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Does that mean the Red Sox are the Millenium Falcon, or a Star Destroyer?
They just uploaded the game-ending TOOTBLAN/fails:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18120001%5B/quote%5D/headdesk
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]
They just uploaded the game-ending TOOTBLAN/fails:
[/quote]Yet another case where I don’t care for the term “TOOTBLAN” (at least the nincompoop part). You have to run on contact in that situation (runners on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out). 100% of the time.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I learned that Marmol allows more balls on the ground that I thought. I then checked Fangraphs and he is more of a groundball pitcher. I would never have guessed that. I always assumed he was a fly ball pitcher. Weird.[/quote]What? His career GB% is 33.4%. Ted Lilly’s is 33.9%. Jered Weaver’s is 33.3%. He’s a flyball pitcher if ever there was one.
ACTQuote Reply
By contrast, Roy Halladay (groundball pitcher) has a GB% of 55.3 %.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Yet another case where I don’t care for the term “TOOTBLAN” (at least the nincompoop part). You have to run on contact in that situation (runners on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out). 100% of the time.[/quote]100% agreed. I think it’s a funny acronym, but I’ve rarely used it. Most of the time I see it applied it’s on plays that I’d hardly call stupid. That was one of them. If you want to take extra bases, you have to make some outs. That’s the trade off. Hopefully you take enough bases that you’re adding runs rather than subtracting them.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]What? His career GB% is 33.4%. Ted Lilly’s is 33.9%. Jered Weaver’s is 33.3%. He’s a flyball pitcher if ever there was one.[/quote](dying laughing) I was accidentally looking at Carlos Zambrano’s page on fangraphs.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I was accidentally looking at Carlos Zambrano’s page on fangraphs.[/quote]Did you also find out that Marmol was a surprisingly good hitter?
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Did you also find out that Marmol was a surprisingly good hitter?[/quote]
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Aisle424Quote Reply
If there was any mistake on the Barney play at the end of the game it was that he was probably better off going to home and hoping the throw was off. It’s a split second decision so I can’t call it a bad decision, but in that instance he was better off just going full speed to home. Take out the catcher if he’s blocking the plate.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Did you also find out that Marmol was a surprisingly good hitter?[/quote](dying laughing) I didn’t check the batting stats, but I’ve always assumed Marmol was a good hitter just becuase he ws a catcher. I think he had a pretty good swing for a pitcher if I recall correctly.
I don’t know why i thought it was Marmol’s page. I usually just to to my url bar and enter in the name and then click on one of the links that comes up. I saw Carlos and thought it was Marmol. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
As an extreme fly ball pitcher, we’d expect Marmol’s BABIP to be about .270 to .280.
mb21Quote Reply
I know Harry mentioned something about Marmol’s Infield fly ball percentage being down, but Fangraphs has it being down since 2010. That goes along with what my eyes tell me.
I wish Hit f/x was more readily available than it is. i’d really like to know what the contact against Marmol is like compared to the average closer.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I didn’t check the batting stats, but I’ve always assumed Marmol was a good hitter just becuase he ws a catcher. I think he had a pretty good swing for a pitcher if I recall correctly.
I don’t know why i thought it was Marmol’s page. I usually just to to my url bar and enter in the name and then click on one of the links that comes up. I saw Carlos and thought it was Marmol. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Yet another problem from having too many Carloses on the team.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Yet another problem from having too many Carloses on the team.[/quote]At least they got rid of Carlos Silva. Carlos Zambrano isn’t long for this team either. I highly doubt Carlos Pena will be back next year. Knowing the Cubs, though, they’ll sign some guy off the street named Carlos Pujols.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I didn’t check the batting stats, but I’ve always assumed Marmol was a good hitter just becuase he ws a catcher. I think he had a pretty good swing for a pitcher if I recall correctly.[/quote]In his one year as a starter, he hit a hell of a lot better than Randy Wells, at least.
ACTQuote Reply
In fact his 2006 batting line is very Zambrano-esque. Lots of K’s, no walks, 1 HR.174 ISO, 67wRC+. Almost certainly flukey, but really good for a pitcher.
ACTQuote Reply
Oh, and a .333 BABIP, which is exactly equal to Z’s career mark.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If there was any mistake on the Barney play at the end of the game it was that he was probably better off going to home and hoping the throw was off. It’s a split second decision so I can’t call it a bad decision, but in that instance he was better off just going full speed to home. Take out the catcher if he’s blocking the plate.[/quote]
I agree. He should’ve kept going, and I think that is where TOOTBLAN is used correctly because his initial movement was fine, but the hesitation made him look like a nincompoop.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]In fact his 2006 batting line is very Zambrano-esque. Lots of K’s, no walks, 1 HR.174 ISO, 67wRC+. Almost certainly flukey, but really good for a pitcher.[/quote]I remember the scouting report on him as a hitter was that he had occasional power, but had trouble making contact. He could hit the ball really hard to left field.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I agree. He should’ve kept going, and I think that is where TOOTBLAN is used correctly because his initial movement was fine, but the hesitation made him look like a nincompoop.[/quote]I agree going toward home was probably the best decision to make in that situation, but it’s a tough play. You have to go on contact and at that point Barney thought he’d get into a run down. Barney has been worth 2.9 UBR and 3.7 EqBRR so he’s been a very good baserunner this season. As much as I’d like to think I know what the best decision was, I’ll assume a good baserunner like Barney knows more than I do. i’d assume even a bad baserunner knows more than I, but on that play, it’s just a tough decision. I’m guessing half the time the player holds up and tries to get in a rundown and half the time he goes forward.
mb21Quote Reply
Looking at EqBRR, I found something that made me laugh. Matt Garza is 4th on the Cubs. I don’t even remember him getting on base considering how pathetic he’s looked at the plate, but apparently he has and he’s accrued the 4th most EqBRR among all Cubs. The only players with more are Darwin Barney (3.7), Tony Campana (3.1) and Jeff Baker (1.7). Garza has 0.9. After Garza? Casey fucking Coleman with 0.7. Brad Snyder has been on base once and he’s 8th on the Cubs. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Ramirez is worst at -6.5. He’s just awful.
mb21Quote Reply
MGL noted that when he was calculating last year’s baserunning linear weights.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/base_running_lwts/#19
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Ramirez is worst at -6.5. He’s just awful.[/quote]Is that just because he’s slower than shit or are they taking into account stupid advances that result in outs?
binkyQuote Reply
I was wondering at what point would pinch running for Ramirez with Campana be a good decision in terms of adding runs? Obviously it would depend on the game state, but what is the average point at which it would make perfect sense to do so? Assuming the Cubs had a decent glove to man 3rd base, someone like Jeff Baker, I’m guessing you could pinch run for Ramirez in the 6th inning and it would add wins to the team. If you figure the 3rd baseman would have one more at-bat, the defensive difference between someone like Baker and Ramire is probably enough to make it a wash. If he gets on in the 6th then you have the added runs from the improvement on the bases.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Is that just because he’s slower than shit or are they taking into account stupid advances that result in outs?[/quote]It would be a comination of not advancing enough bases and making outs. I’m sure Ramirez is poor at both in order to be that bad.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I was wondering at what point would pinch running for Ramirez with Campana be a good decision in terms of adding runs? Obviously it would depend on the game state, but what is the average point at which it would make perfect sense to do so? Assuming the Cubs had a decent glove to man 3rd base, someone like Jeff Baker, I’m guessing you could pinch run for Ramirez in the 6th inning and it would add wins to the team. If you figure the 3rd baseman would have one more at-bat, the defensive difference between someone like Baker and Ramire is probably enough to make it a wash. If he gets on in the 6th then you have the added runs from the improvement on the bases.[/quote]Has there ever been a manager who actually looked this closely at the numbers to make decisions like this? I assume managers are mostly into folk wisdom and “guts.”
binkyQuote Reply
Highly doubtful a manager has ever looked closely at run expectancy or win expectancy, which is what we’d want to use here. I was more or less wondering, academically, at what point would it make sense to use Campana to pinch run for Ramirez. In other words, at what point would it make sense to replace Ramirez in a way to maximize value, which would be when he’s on base. If you added an excellent fielding back-up you could probably even made the decision sooner.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Highly doubtful a manager has ever looked closely at run expectancy or win expectancy, which is what we’d want to use here. I was more or less wondering, academically, at what point would it make sense to use Campana to pinch run for Ramirez. In other words, at what point would it make sense to replace Ramirez in a way to maximize value, which would be when he’s on base. If you added an excellent fielding back-up you could probably even made the decision sooner.[/quote]Given how bad he is running bases, it seems like he makes himself much more replaceable, since you wouldn’t need as good of a bat to get the same overall value.
binkyQuote Reply
Can the Cubs afford to pinch run Ramirez and Soriano? It seems like the prevailing opinion is that Sori is the weak link from the 6th inning on when the team is behind.
binkyQuote Reply
exactly, Josh. Add to the terrible baserunning is below average defense and it makes it even worse. This isn’t to say Ramirez isn’t any good. He is, but over a full season we can take a win away due to baserunning and defense. He probably should be moved to 1st base at this point in his career or even to DH.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]Can the Cubs afford to pinch run Ramirez and Soriano? It seems like the prevailing opinion is that Sori is the weak link from the 6th inning on when the team is behind.[/quote]No, they can’t afford to have 2 guys in the lineup that need to be replaced. Ramirez doesn’t need to be replaced. I’m just thinking more about maximizing the value. The Cubs should probably let Ramirez walk, but I think they extend him for 2 or 3 years.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]No, they can’t afford to have 2 guys in the lineup that need to be replaced. Ramirez doesn’t need to be replaced. I’m just thinking more about maximizing the value. The Cubs should probably let Ramirez walk, but I think they extend him for 2 or 3 years.[/quote]Then they have to cut Soriano. I just don’t see how they can carry both of those guys, from a win/loss perspective. I hadn’t thought about Rami at 1B. I’d be all right with that if they put some one decent or at least a good platoon in at 3B.
binkyQuote Reply
How does Carlos Pena have such a good eye at the plate and such a ridiculously low batting average? That is a weird combination of skills.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]How does Carlos Pena have such a good eye at the plate and such a ridiculously low batting average? That is a weird combination of skills.[/quote]His swing is very aggressive and he misses a lot, in addition to generating a lot of fly balls. Plus, his pull-crazy tendencies play right into the defensive shifts, and he’s too slow to run out many grounders.
ACTQuote Reply
Also, his swing-and-miss tendencies are partly why he draws so many walks (he swings at a lot of strikes early in the count, but he misses, keeping the count alive).
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Also, his swing-and-miss tendencies are partly why he draws so many walks (he swings at a lot of strikes early in the count, but he misses, keeping the count alive).[/quote]Have they been shifting as much lately against him? I haven’t been paying attention. I was wondering if they gave that up since he doesn’t seem to make a lot of ground ball contact.
binkyQuote Reply
I think Aramis is probably best off DH’ing for some AL team. That could potentially prolong his career as well, given his injury history. Of course, some NL players are reluctant to DH, and some players have a significant dropoff in their batting numbers when they make the switch.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Have they been shifting as much lately against him? I haven’t been paying attention. I was wondering if they gave that up since he doesn’t seem to make a lot of ground ball contact.[/quote]I’ve definitely seen some shifts against him, though different teams vary, I suppose. It would be nice if there were some public database of defensive shifts teams use against certain players.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I think Aramis is probably best off DH’ing for some AL team. That could potentially prolong his career as well, given his injury history. Of course, some NL players are reluctant to DH, and some players have a significant dropoff in their batting numbers when they make the switch.[/quote]Adam Dunn comes to mind.
I was just thinking if they were going to extend Rami, then it’s definitely not unheard off for third to shift to first. I know they like Pena because he’s patient and because he’s a nice guy, but I just don’t see how he fits on the team if they are going to contend. Platoon?
binkyQuote Reply
A few things I’d like to see public databases of:
Defensive shifts
Bat speed
Baserunning speed
ACTQuote Reply
Yeah, Bat speed would definitely be interesting to see. See if Ted Williams was right about bat speed being superior to strength. Also, mix in preferred bat weights to see what difference bigger bats make on speed, contact, and power. Baserunning speed would be a cool statistic to flash during broadcasts with faster guys. I’m really surprised that TV doesn’t try harder to do some of this stuff. But others would really enjoy it, I think.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh] Pena because he’s patient and because he’s a nice guy, but I just don’t see how he fits on the team if they are going to contend. Platoon?[/quote]Pena would work as a platoon player, but I bet he could get more money on the FA market as a starter (unless the Cubs want to spend starter money on a part-time player). I don’t think I’d mind having Pena back if he’s cheep and the Cubs get major upgrades at other positions.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=josh] See if Ted Williams was right about bat speed being superior to strength.[/quote]I think it’s clear that bat speed is the most important aspect of hitting (well, that and location, bat weight, and angle). But I don’t get the “speed being superior to strength” argument. Strength allows you to swing faster. It’s not an either/or thing.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Pena would work as a platoon player, but I bet he could get more money on the FA market as a starter (unless the Cubs want to spend starter money on a part-time player). I don’t think I’d mind having Pena back if he’s cheep and the Cubs get major upgrades at other positions.[/quote]No, I wouldn’t mind that either. He’s not quite the defender they made him out to be, but he’s been durable and I like his patience, weird as it is, and his homerun ability. He’s not a superstar, but like you said with some other upgrades, he be a relatively cheap anchor.
binkyQuote Reply
Greinke ERA under 4.00 now.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Greinke ERA under 4.00 now.[/quote]Finally getting some good variance.
GBTSQuote Reply
BJax had himself a triple today.
And another strikeout.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Interesting…Bryan LaHair is hitting the ball all kinds and yet is not part of the 40-man roster yet. Guess no call-up for him.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Lou Montanez, who IS on the 40-man, gets a big hit after BJax walks to load the bases with two down. BJax scores all the way from first on that one. Nice.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It’s been a while since we’ve had a BRAD FUCKING SNYDER comment on this blog.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Brett Jackson
2-4, triple, walk, 2 K’s.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]It’s been a while since we’ve had a BRAD FUCKING SNYDER comment on this blog.[/quote]
Every comment is implied to be a BFS comment.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Aramis has 15 hits and 3 HR in his last 7 games.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Aramis has 15 hits and 3 HR in his last 7 games.[/quote]The kind of player a lesser organization might have been able to create some trade buzz around.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]A few things I’d like to see public databases of:
Defensive shifts
Bat speed
Baserunning speed[/quote]
Does this guy know how to party or what?!
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Aramis has 15 hits and 3 HR in his last 7 games.[/quote]You forgot to factor in the hits Castro and Barney would have if Ramirez wasn’t on the team.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]You forgot to factor in the hits Castro and Barney would have if Ramirez wasn’t on the team.[/quote]My spreadsheet estimates that would be about 378 hits.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Aramis has 15 hits and 3 HR in his last 7 games.[/quote]
GBTSQuote Reply
Pryor —————> supplemental draft
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Brett Jackson
2-4, triple, walk, 2 K’s.[/quote](dying laughing) everytime someone puts up his game stats, there is always a K. How many games has he played where he hasn’t struck out? It is like the guy either gets a hit, walks, or strikes out. His BABIP must be insanely high.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi](dying laughing) everytime someone puts up his game stats, there is always a K. How many games has he played where he hasn’t struck out? It is like the guy either gets a hit, walks, or strikes out. His BABIP must be insanely high.[/quote]
Only 7 games (out of 31) in AAA where he doesn’t have a strikeout. In those 7 games he was 14/23 with 7 HR. Never looked at his stats before, but he is damn good. Just way too many strikeouts.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Only 7 games (out of 31) in AAA where he doesn’t have a strikeout. In those 7 games he was 14/23 with 7 HR. Never looked at his stats before, but he is damn good. Just way too many strikeouts.[/quote]22 games w/o a K out of 67 in AA.
WaLiQuote Reply
Will someone please talk to WaLi?
GBTSQuote Reply
So in AAA he K’s in about 78% of his games and in AA he K’d in about 66% of his games (dying laughing)
Just for random comparison, Castro K’d in 59/120 (49%) games, Soriano 67/103 (65%), and Peen-ya 83/118 (70%).
I understand K’s per plate appearance is more useful, but just thought I’d post number of games a K occured. Obviously based on the above %, it means nothing (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Will someone please talk to WaLi?[/quote]I’m lonely 🙁
WaLiQuote Reply
(h/t ChicagoVince)
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Will someone please talk to WaLi?[/quote]
Don’t tell me what to do.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8218c476/article/vicks-initial-reaction-i-didnt-want-to-come-to-philadelphia
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Don’t tell me what to do.[/quote]I know. GBTS has gotten awfully bossy around here. I think we should put him on the disqualified list and continue to ruin his reputation.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I know. GBTS has gotten awfully bossy around here. I think we should put him on the disqualified list and continue to ruin his reputation.[/quote]You’ll also need no less than three public statements from Ryan Dempster about GBTS’ behavior.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I know. GBTS has gotten awfully bossy around here. I think we should put him on the disqualified list and continue to ruin his reputation.[/quote]
I’m not going to sit here and bash him or rip him. He made some choices and he has to live with those choices and figure out what the repercussions are from those.
BerseliusQuote Reply
This is a AAA blog.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]This is a AAA blog.[/quote]We stinks.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I don’t mind the players talking about it. Dempster speaking his mind isn’t any different than Pujols basically telling the Cardinals to trade Colby Rasmus. I don’t like the idea that the players should just shut up and play and have written about it before. I believe I did it when people were telling Milton Bradley to just shut up and play. My issue with talking is from coaches and management, though to be honest I think the Cubs have actually handled it fairly well in this instance. Mostly though, my issue is that it can lower a person’s value and in this case, that isn’t possible. Nothing the Cubs can say is something that is going to push a team that may be interested in him away. He’s done enough shit in public that it’s only logical to assume he has done so much more in private.
Either way, I feel Ryan Dempster has a right to say what he wants and I believe he’s earned that. He’s been on the Cubs for 8 years now and has supposedly been the leader among the pitchers for a few years now. He’s also easily been the best player on the team in terms of fWAR since the beginning of the 2008 season. Just another reason how he’s earned the right to say what he wants in my opinion.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]This is a AAA blog.[/quote]AAA is better than discredited so thanks for the compliment.
mb21Quote Reply
I’d also argue that Carlos Zambrano lost any right whatsoever to the players not talking about him when he called out Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee and most recently Carlos Marmol.
mb21Quote Reply
Okay, so this is about footy, but this might be the single greatest paragraph written on the shoddy state of sportscasting, ever:
I almost stood and cheered in my front room.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
That’s fair, MB. I’m just sick Dempster beating a path to the nearest microphone when there’s a bogeyman for this team.
But you make a good point that Z is no stranger to teammate bashing, so I guess turnabout is fair play. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I do think there’s a big difference between a guy like Theriot at the mic and Dempster. There’s actually a reason for Demp to be there since he’s good and a team leader. Theriot just wanted his name in the paper. The media does ask the team leaders their opinions on this and I’m sure Demp has held back, but at the same time I’m sure he watched Z throw teammates under a bus and is a little more willing ot talk about him in a way to stand up for the teammates.
Turnaround is fair play is a perfect way to put it.
The obvious dig at Derrek Lee is when I really started to lose any respect for Zambrano. Lee had been gone for nearly a year and there was no reason whatsofuckingever to say what he did. And he also took a dig at Ramirez. It’s kind of amazing he still has supporters to be honest.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Okay, so this is about footy, but this might be the single greatest paragraph written on the shoddy state of sportscasting, ever:
LSA in my front room.[/quote].
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
In other news, we’ve got a logjam at the top of the standings in Discredited Fantasy Baseball.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint].[/quote]
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I do think there’s a big difference between a guy like Theriot at the mic and Dempster. There’s actually a reason for Demp to be there since he’s good and a team leader. Theriot just wanted his name in the paper. The media does ask the team leaders their opinions on this and I’m sure Demp has held back, but at the same time I’m sure he watched Z throw teammates under a bus and is a little more willing ot talk about him in a way to stand up for the teammates.
Turnaround is fair play is a perfect way to put it.
The obvious dig at Derrek Lee is when I really started to lose any respect for Zambrano. Lee had been gone for nearly a year and there was no reason whatsofuckingever to say what he did. And he also took a dig at Ramirez. It’s kind of amazing he still has supporters to be honest.[/quote]What did he say about D Lee? Z’s acted a bit like a jerk all season, and like he’s the only one trying. I think it’s good that someone stood up for the team.
binkyQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]What did he say about D Lee? Z’s acted a bit like a jerk all season, and like he’s the only one trying. I think it’s good that someone stood up for the team.[/quote]I don’t remember the exact words, but it was something about how if the team wanted to trade him he wasn’t going to exercise his no-trade clause like other players had done. It was in reference to DLee not accepting a trade at the end of July last year. That doesn’t come as a surprise as those two got into last year, but it’s pretty bad that Z is still upset.
I don’t want to pile on Z because he’s one of my favorite players, but he made this mess. I can’t criticize other players for getting their licks in when Zambrano has been getting his in over the years in press conferences.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]This is a AA+ blog.[/quote]
.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius].[/quote]That would be like the Arizona Fall League.
mb21Quote Reply
Jeff Francouer ————> two year extension
(dying laughing)
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BerseliusQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Jeff Francouer ————> two year extension
(dying laughing)
etc.[/quote]He’s been worth a couple wins for the Royals. They had him with an option for $4 Million next year, so assuming they didn’t go way overboard, it seems like an okay move.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]He’s been worth a couple wins for the Royals. They had him with an option for $4 Million next year, so assuming they didn’t go way overboard, it seems like an okay move.[/quote]
(dying laughing). He’s having a good year, but in his previous three years combined he was worth 0.1 fWAR. IN THREE YEARS! (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
-2.5 rWAR from 2008-2010 for Francouer
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing). He’s having a good year, but in his previous three years combined he was worth 0.1 fWAR. IN THREE YEARS! (dying laughing)[/quote]
Replacement level consistency!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing) at Royals fans (esp Rany) trying to rationalize it on twitter
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing) at Royals fans (esp Rany) trying to rationalize it on twitter[/quote]
…because they’re cheap and can’t get something better for cheaper?
I don’t follow the Royals as much so I don’t know if that’s actually true.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]…because they’re cheap and can’t get something better for cheaper?
I don’t follow the Royals as much so I don’t know if that’s actually true.[/quote]
Basically, that he’s 27 and has had 3 good seasons out of 7. Never mind that the other ones are terrible (dying laughing).
A lot depends on how much they’re paying him. If it’s similar to what it is now ($3m) then meh. But probably fair to expect near-replacement level production from him.
BerseliusQuote Reply
basically,
BerseliusQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Ouch.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18151523&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_18151523&v=3
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Does this qualify as a TOOTBLAN?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Watch-for-the-fake-David-Wright-dupes-Maybin-wi?urn=mlb-wp16297
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Muskat says Beef Castle made a baby.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Muskat says Beef Castle ejaculated inside a woman about 40 weeks ago.[/quote].
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
2/13.5 for Frenchy
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]2/13.5 for Frenchy[/quote]
I think I can (dying laughing) at that now.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint].[/quote]
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ouch.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18151523&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_18151523&v=3%5B/quote%5D
Byrd is obviously a pussy (dying laughing) He fell right the fuck down and didn’t get back up. This guy at least walked off the field under his own power.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]
[/quote]
I think you know what’s about to happen…
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Does this qualify as a TOOTBLAN?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Watch-for-the-fake-David-Wright-dupes-Maybin-wi?urn=mlb-wp16297%5B/quote%5DOnly if TO = tagged out
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]2/13.5 for Frenchy[/quote]Okay, yeah, that’s ridiculous.
binkyQuote Reply
Wifey’s link of the day:
http://ohellnawlblog.com/newohnblog/2011/08/18/best-roommate-ad-ever/
Anyone need a roommate?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]2/13.5 for Frenchy[/quote](dying laughing)
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As a Royals fan, I must laugh to contain my tears.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder](dying laughing)
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As a Royals fan, I must laugh to contain my tears.[/quote]They bought out a $4 mil option in order to double his money. There’s giving a dude a chance and then there’s just handing him free money.
binkyQuote Reply
“new” Wrigley Field financing plan. Chuck says it looks like the same shit they’ve been peddling
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/section/blogs?blogID=greg-hinz&plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&uid=1daca073-2eab-468e-9f19-ec177090a35c&plckPostId=Blog:1daca073-2eab-468e-9f19-ec177090a35cPost:cb12b486-68dc-4004-8e41-afb01a97e5fe&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest
BerseliusQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Not much to say today, but I need to post how much I’m (dying laughing) over Francouer.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]”new” Wrigley Field financing plan. Chuck says it looks like the same shit they’ve been peddling
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/section/blogs?blogID=greg-hinz&plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&uid=1daca073-2eab-468e-9f19-ec177090a35c&plckPostId=Blog:1daca073-2eab-468e-9f19-ec177090a35cPost:cb12b486-68dc-4004-8e41-afb01a97e5fe&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest%5B/quote%5D
I don’t know if the wording is off, but they actually use the word “rebuild” and not “renovate” and so this seems different from what was peddled to the IL government last year…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
KG
Josh Vitters, 3B/1B, Cubs (Double-A Tennessee): 2-for-5, 2 R. Third straight multi-hit game and hitting .361 in August; .288/.322/.452 overall.
MishQuote Reply
Westvleteren 12 ———> MO
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
That reminds me. For you scotchfags, try this:
Had a glass last night. Nice.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Peyton Hillis vs. Chuck Norris
http://www.peytonhillis.com/
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
Holy shit. You guys drink some expensive hooch.
binkyQuote Reply
mb (or anyone who understands EqBRR) any idea how much getting thrown out at the plate affects those numbers? From what I recall of past explanations, it shouldn’t affect it that much. Just curious.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]mb (or anyone who understands EqBRR) any idea how much getting thrown out at the plate affects those numbers? From what I recall of past explanations, it shouldn’t affect it that much. Just curious.[/quote]It depends on the game state. If you’re thrown out in a 2-1 game it hurts a lot. If your’e thrown out in a 11-1 games it’s not a big deal. Let’s say someone scores from 1st on a double 10% of the time when the average is 15%. I’m making numbers up. No idea what the average is, but that player costs his team runs by not scoring from 1st on a double as often as the league average. I’m too lazy to look up the runs lost in that situation, but it’s probably about .1 or .2 per attempt.
That’s basically what EqBRR is. It looks at the average amount of times a runner goes 1st to 2nd on a single, 1st to 3rd on a single and and so on and then how many times each individual player does it compared to average. Then outs obviously cost you runs, which depend on the game state.
mb21Quote Reply
shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/is-sean-marshall-the-best-reliever-on-the-cubs.html
mb21Quote Reply