First things first, here is the top 10 list BA has given for the Cubs this year.
1. Javier Baez, SS
This is basically a unanimous projection. There’s an outside case for Albert Almora or Jorge Soler, but neither has the upside of Baez, and he also had the best minors season of the 3 also. No surprise here. I’d be pretty shocked if Baez wasn’t in the top 10 of baseball next year. He had a rough A+ end to 2012, but he absolutely owned the Midwest League and I anticipate he’ll spend the first half of 2013 mashing A+ and eventually getting a call to AA at the very end of the season. As with every young minor league player, he needs to walk a little more and strike out a little less, but he’s absolutely got the powern and defensive chops to be a routine all-star at short.
2. Albert Almora, CF
Almora garners the “best hitter for average” and “best defensive OF” awards from BA as well, which is pretty interesting to note. A line of .347/.363/.480 in rookie ball isn’t awe-inspiring: he walked 2 times in 80 PA. Generally, players that don’t walk in rookie ball just don’t need to (they are crushing all of the pitches that are in the zone because players at this level are usually not any good). There’s probably some truth to that here: Almora struck out only 8 times in 80 PA, so he wasn’t overmatched. He just wasn’t demolishing the league. An .843 OPS in rookie ball doesn’t scream “huge success,” and he was outperformed in that league by Vogelbach and even Justin Marra (who is a real sleeper prospect). The tools are really there, but Almora seems like he’s got a decent flame-out chance, though he could still be a huge bust and end up bouncing around due to his ability to play the OF and run. I’ll feel a lot better if Almora proves he can either take a walk or get some more XBH next year, which he totally can. Almora should start the season in A, and probably end it there too, with a late promotion to A+ if the season goes swimmingly.
3. Jorge Soler
Soler wasn’t the top power prospect in the system this year (Vogelbach might be in the discussion for top in all of the minors), but Soler is a legit threat to hit 35-40 HR in the big league. He had pretty good plate discipline in 2012, but only 5 HR in 149 PA. It’s a small sample size, to be sure. There isn’t enough American professional data on him to be certain of anything (same with Almora, to be fair), but Soler has the tools commensurate with a Top 50 player on I could easily see him sitting at 40-60 in baseball. He’ll start the year at A, maybe A+, but he’ll be aggresively promoted this year until he reaches a level he can’t hit (I bet AA). I’d be loathe to start him in AA but would have no problem with A+, I guess.
4. Arodys Vizcaino
Jim Callis is really bullish on Vizcaino being a starter, apparently. If Vizcaino was 100% certain to start, I could get behind this (and he’d actually probably be the #2 prospect on the team). To give you an idea of how high Callis is on this guy, Jim has Vizcaino as the best fastball AND best curveball in the system. Having two plus pitches is quite the accomplishment. His minor-league peripherals indicate he’s got as good a chance as any to be a dominant, front-end starter, except for the TJS he had last year (March 20). If his future is as a starter (and I think it is), he’s got a chance to be really good. It’s also important to note that his age-22 season is still this year. He doesn’t necessarily have to make it to the big-league for a few years to still be a well-regarded prospect (though if he doesn’t have it by 2015, he’s probably cooked). He’ll probably spend this year rehabbing through the low minors, with a call-up to the majors when/if we’re well out of it in September.
5. Brett Jackson
I think this is a little high (though I think I’m higher on Jackson than many Cubs fans). Jackson can be a productive player in the big leagues, and probably even start without getting much better. I think there’s almost no chance he’ll ever be a star in the league (his contact is just too poor, he’ll strikeout way too much), but strikeouts aren’t nearly as bad as people think they are and he can still hit for average and power (fun fact: he had a higher OBP last year than Darwin Barney despite hitting .175). Jackson is probably going to be an average to below-average MLB regular, which has some value. I don’t think that he should be ahead of a few guys on this list, though. He’ll start the season at AAA but will come to the majors in short order.
6. Pierce Johnson
Johnson was the second 1st round pick the Cubs had (Duane Underwood was the third) in last year’s draft. He basically didn’t throw last year, so this is all projection. He’s had injury problems in college (great) but apparently has nice heat (92-94) and a curve/change as well. We’ll see.
7. Dan Vogelbach
I thought this was pretty low. Vogelbach is absolutely a prospect in the majors, even if he can’t field. Vogelbach had the 6th highest wOBA last year, IN THE ENTIRE MINOR LEAGUES. 2 people ahead of him were 33 and 32 in Mexican Leagues; they don’t count. His ISO power numbers last year were 2nd in the entire minors: only Joey Gallo hit for more power. Vogelbach is one of 5 or 10 best hitting prospects in baseball, no question. There’s incredible value in that, even if he’s only a DH. He’ll get every chance to play 1B whatever level he’s at (A to start this year, most likely), and if he hits anywhere near what he did last season I wouldn’t be surprised if he was knocking down the door in 2014.
8. Jeimer Candelario
I’m pretty low on Candelario. He’s another high-projection guy who already has whispers of being a 1B, which means he’s going to have hit like crazy to be successful. Maybe he grows into his frame and starts mashing the ball. I’m betting he doesn’t (and there are whispers of poor effort, too). It is cool that’s he’s a switch hitter, though.
9. Kyuji Fujikawa
This is just Jim Callis getting cute.
10. Arismendy Alcantara
Already injured, poor plate discipline, relatively low power, “toolsy” SS. I don’t know, maybe there’s something I’m not seeing (switch-handedness), but a guy who has had 4 years of minor league instruction but STILL lacks some plate discipline just seems like a stretch to me. I’d be glad to proven wrong.
Don’t get me wrong, this is a lot better than last year. I guess I just expected guys like Dillon Maples or or Juan Paniagua or Christian Villanueva on this list. I guess it’s a good thing they aren’t, but I feel like the bottom of this list just isn’t all that great. Either they are better than I think or the guys I like are worse.
Comments
From last thread…I thought Maples hurt his elbow and spent most of last year recovering from the injury before he got a few innings in the instructs where he didn’t do so hot?
Also, 😀 @ SK:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Small sample size etc…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=maples000dil
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
That is what happened to Maples, he still has loads of talent though. If you want “projection” guys on your top 10 (and BA always does), this is your guy.
MylesQuote Reply
I think Callis said in his chat that he will be ranked #11
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
I guess I’m shocked!
MylesQuote Reply
This is the only way to fly.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Myles:
What’s disappointing is that Maples wasn’t even in the top 10 Cubs prospects. I’m kind of surprised by that, but when you see Kyuji Fujikawa in the top 10, you know you have some depth issues.
I like Candelario more than you do. He’s shown he can be patient in the past. If he has to move to 1st, that will blow his value to hell though.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
He did walk in FRk2, but his 16.2% rate doesn’t look as awesome when you realize that league had an 11.1% walk rate that year.
He’s got some tools, that’s for sure. I’m (obviously) a big fan of anyone who draws walks and put a bunch of balls in play. Candelario does both of things. As a 1B, he’s a fringe-prospect in my eyes.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Yeah, at 1st base he’s basically of no use. So that is definitely a concern. That said, he’s at 3rd right now and it’s possible he can stick so I’m a bit more optimistic. I don’t think he’s going to be a star or anything, but I think he could be pretty good at 3rd. He’s a long, long way away though. Even if he can stick at 3rd his value is questionable to this organization because it seems one of Castro or Baez will be playing that position if things work out as we hope. I still like moving Castro to CF if Baez can stick at SS.
dmick89Quote Reply
If Castro slows down as some (most?) scouts expect him to, he won’t be able to play CF.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I’m not talking 5 to 7 years from now. I’m talking about a couple years from now when (if) Baez is ready and can still play SS (as it seems a lot of scouts think he can). It’s probably a little far-fetched to think Baez could be up early next season, but it’s not impossible either. I’m talking about moving Castro to CF as soon as Baez comes up.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
(dying laughing) that was my last post there for saying turn it green. (dying laughing)
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
SEC starting strong
Mobile WaLiQuote Reply
It’s gonna be a blowout.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Correct.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
@ Mobile WaLi:
I was kind of disappointed that I couldn’t get the vipsportsbox link to work, until I saw the score. So I paid bills instead.
SVBQuote Reply
(h/t to OV’s owner)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Image post fail
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Furious Bleacher Report Editor Will Make Staff Rank Things All Fucking Night If He Has To
Suburban kidQuote Reply
A-Rod’s hip:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/08/a-rods-doctor-is-surprised-he-could-even-play-in-the-playoffs/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
It worked when I posted it, just like how rumors are true at the time Al hears them.
http://gif.mocksession.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/SAD-DOMERS.gif
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
I badly want a Yellon compendia.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
FORBIDDEN
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I guess you and me aren’t in the inner circle.
berselius is a pretty elite dude
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
New Aside
MylesQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
well fuck it then (dying laughing)
http://gif.mocksession.com/2013/01/sad-domers/
BerseliusQuote Reply
Vogelbach is one of the 5-10 best hitting prospects overall? Are you nuts? How bout….Tavares, Profar, Myers, Bogaerts, Zunino, Rendon, Baez, Castellenos, Yelich, Arcia, etc, etc….dont get me wrong, i love Vogelbach as much as the next guy, but you cant call him a top 5-10 hitting prospect with such a small sample size. And actually, his value takes a massive hit if he cant play 1B. When’s the last time any GM gave up anything of value in a trade for a DH?
CliffQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
That was about 90% of my facebook feed last night. Irish fans just couldn’t believe their team would get their asses whupped by a superior team or some such.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think you could make a case for Vogey. Good plate discipline 60-65 contact grades I have seen. 80 power? That is hard to beat.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Also. This list IMO is infinitely better then last years list.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
One last aside. The Hayden Simpson was indefensible.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
When you take a top 200 talent in the first round, it’s better than picking #201, I guess.
Also, I thought this was amusing…
http://profootballmock.com/nfl-qbs-on-facebook-wild-card-bitches/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Cliff:
One of the best hitting prospects does not mean one of the best overall prospects or most valuable. Obviously anyone who can hit a lick and play C, SS and maybe even CF are probably better prospects than Vogelbach. That said, I can buy Vogelbach being one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball. Dude is a fucking monster at the plate.
That said, my guess is he ends up at DH and offers little to no value to an NL team.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I mean what if he can play a passable first?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
If he can stick there then he has a lot of value, but I think that’s questionable at this point. To be honest, it was probably questionable that Prince Fielder could stick at 1st too so who knows? the guy can flat out hit and I figure the DH is coming the NL before long anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
I also agree with bubbles that this list is considerably better than last year’s. It still has some work to do (Pierce Johnson has some upside, but less than a dozen professional innings). Right now, he seems to be the only certain starter (at this point) in the top 10 as there are many who think Vizcaino will be in the bullpen.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Hayden Simpson could transform into an elite pitcher. You never know.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I wonder how long it is going to be? Based on how fucking slow MLB is it could take forever which is bullshit IMO.
Also Vizcaino IMO is a starter. I see no reason why he cant do it. And if he is a starter he is a top notch one. I dont think the pitching is as bad as some think.
Paniagua, Vizcaino, Pierce are all solid. We should add wither Appel, Stanek or Manena this year. The thing that confused me in the chat was he said we were I think #13 in terms of systems. I would think with the impact bats (and lets be real) Baez, Soler, Almora, and Vogelbach are potential all star bats if they develop thats higher.
In 4 years a potential lineup of
B Jackson (i think he has value still)
Castro
Baez
Vogelbach
Soler
Almora
Castillo
Barney
is pretty good.
(waits for MB to tell me they all fail)
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
2 serious injuries at such a young age might suggest otherwise. Keep in mind the Yankees gave up on him because they didn’t think he could start and the Braves did the same. The Cubs will use him as a starter and will try to if possible, but there are good reasons to think he’ll end up in the bullpen.
dmick89Quote Reply
LaRoche ———> Nats (inevitably)
BerseliusQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
I don’t have to. You know some of them will. You know some won’t be as good as we hope. You know there will be another player or two who emerge and end up better than we expect.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2013/01/sifting-through-more-rumors.html
Cubs-Tigers rumored to be talking about a Porcello trade. Seems unlikely to me given the Cubs pitching situation now, but at least he’s 24.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Wow, Porcello is a lot better than I thought
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cliff wrote:
I’m talking about just purely hitting. Clearly he’s not a defensive value, but he’s as good if not demonstrably better than anyone on that list as far as actually hitting a baseball. If Vogelbach could play 1B at even an average level, people in baseball would be falling over themselves to get on his bandwagon. As it is, he’s only a second-tier prospect. He’s got a small sample size, sure, but 310 PA of .322/.410/.641 at age 19 is extremely impressive. Give him 650 PA, and he also hit 39 HR and 48 doubles (pretty good for someone who is as slow as he is)
MylesQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Doesn’t Selig’s contract expire in 2014? It will definitely be after that, if he decides to retire (again). The CBA contract expires December 2015, so it will probably be then.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
So Tigers want a Hardy, Orioles want an OF or P, and Cubs want Porcello? Would sending O’s Garza and/or Soriano make sense?
WaLiQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
That’s a hell of a gamble on Garza (for the Orioles). Soriano + a shitload of cash? Maybe, but Sori already said no to them. It’s as likely a guess as I have, though.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I guess if the O’s want pitching, and the Tigers want Hardy, then why don’t they just trade?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think it was more of a you have to give up something good to get something good type of thing
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
If we are trading Garza and the return is porcello i will be unimpressed.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/the-2013-hall-of-fame-class-and-the-keltner-list.html
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles wrote:
it’s impressive, but we shouldn’t forget that by all accounts he looked overmatched in extended spring training (189/306/379 in 111 PA). there is no official scorer there for those games so they don’t show up in his official minor league numbers, but that’s why we have arizona phil!
GWQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Eh Porcello is younger and under club control for 2 years longer. I haven’t looked at much more though. Just throwing out ideas on this rumor.
@ Myles: Didn’t Soriano decline at the time because they weren’t contenders? They are definitely more of a contender than the Cubs are at the moment.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I think if you’re trading for Porcello, you don’t give up Garza…
Rice CubeQuote Reply