This year, I'm going to try my best to provide some decent coverage of football, with an obvious focus on the Bears. To that end, I thought it'd be a nice idea to talk about the new Bears this year and how they might fit in. I'll be the first to admit that I'm not the premiere source of football analysis, but I'll try my best to make intelligent, rational arguments and hopefully foster some debate and discussion about Chicago football.
New Arrivals
HC Marc Trestman
Honestly, when the Bears were in the hiring process for a new head coach, Trestman really wasn't at the top of my list. He seemed gimmicky, and I knew that he was passed over for Jerry Kill for the Minnesota HC job. In interviews, he came off as not very firm and it seemed hard to envision Marc as a leader of men. However, I've been fairly impressed with what I've heard from him this year. He's much more media-friendly than many in Chicago are used to (Lovie Smith was about as approachable as the dog in To Kill a Mockingbird), but he seems affable but knowledgeable, and hopefully this team listens to him.
OC Aaron Kromer
Kromer didn't exactly have a sterling record as replacement replacement head coach in New Orleans; however, I'm not about to blame him. What Kromer HAS done over the years is preside over a pretty damn good offensive line unit in New Orleans (and we brought in one of his lineman in free agency). Kromer is the first OC in a long time I've been pretty excited about, and I think he's got a chance to really turn around an offensive line that has physical tools but just hasn't been able to actually block anyone.
OT Jermon Bushrod
Jermon Bushrod was the left tackle for some of the most productive seasons of Drew Brees' career. He made the Pro Bowl in 2011 and hasn't missed a game in 4 years. He's a very good, but not great LT who turns 29 this year. He's a definite upgrade at two spots on the line, both because he's much better than J'Marcus Webb, but he also moves Webb over to the RT where he is probably going to win that job. The Bushrod contract is 5 years with 17.7 million guaranteed; it could be worth up to around 36 million if he lasts all 5 years (he almost certainly will not).
OG Kyle Long
There's a good chance Kyle Long sees some time at RT this year because he's clearly groomed to be the LT of the future. He's got the size and athleticism to be a solid LT (but not a franchise cornerstone); the problem is he hasn't really played competitive football. It's really, really hard to take non-DI lineman seriously because they are knocking around guys that are literally not much bigger than the average high-schooler. In a perfect world, you'd see him at LG for a few years and you'd let Webb have a few cracks at RT, but I wouldn't be surprised if Long "wins" the job out of the preseason. He's a step or two behind most rookies, both because he's been banged up and because Oregon still had classes during mini-camp (so he wasn't allowed to participate).
MLB Jon Bostic
I haven't been able to see Bostic firsthand, but reports from minicamps have been absolutely glowing. He's going to get the chance to start Day 1 to replace Brian Urlacher, and it'll be interesting to see if he can. Urlacher was such a presence in the middle of the field that teams really didn't have an option to pass inside. I imagine that safety net is going to away and Bostic will be attacked in space repeatedly, or at least until he proves you can't do that. It's more difficult than it seems for rookie MLBs to succeed right away, so don't be discouraged if it takes Bostic a half of a season or more.
WLB Khaseem Greene
I wouldn't expect Greene to play much this year, both because he is relatively new to weakside linebacker (he played a lot of safety in college) and because he's backing up Lance Briggs. As a 4th rounder, he's a project anyway.
OT Jordan Mills
Mills is an athletic, fairly polished WAC LT. He shouldn't play this year unless something goes really wrong.
DE Cornelius Washington
Washington was drafted out of Georgia, and had the luxury of playing opposite Alec Ogletree as a DE many times during the year. He'll provide depth this year.
WR Marquess Wilson
He's a 7th round WR. Who knows?
DT Sedrick Ellis
Ellis signed a 1-year, $1 million contract this offseason. He should just be a rotational guy, but Ellis has some talent as a plug. He's basically a freeroll.
EDIT: I wrote this on Wednesday. In between my writing this and training camp, Ellis retired. I imagine the Bears will need to find a rotational DT now, because Corvey Irvin and Nate Collins don't inspire too much confidence.
LG/RT Eben Britton
Britton should just be depth, but might see play at LG should Long prove himself injured or bad. He's not going to get you killed, which is a massive upgrade on this unit.
LG Matt Slauson
Everything I said about Britton? Same with this guy, basically.
TE Martellus Bennett
It's going to be nice having Martellus Bennett on this team. For many years, the Bears just haven't utilized their TE's very well (and they ran Olsen out of town because of crazy Mike Martz). Bennett should provide a safety valve for Cutler, though he's not perfect and will drop balls from time to time. Still, Kellen Davis was without a doubt the worst TE I've seen in probably a decade (I say this with no hyperbole whatsoever. Kellen Davis is the worst TE in a decade), so I'm tickled that we have someone who can at least pretend to play the position.
MLB DJ Williams
Williams was brought in to compete for the MLB spot that Bostic will probably win. He's a serviceable Mike, but he's been suspended both for drugs and alcohol and the over/under for games he's eligible to play in for the Bears this year is set right at 11.5.
WR Devin Aromashodu
Everyone's favorite practice squad-WR is back! After a short jaunt in Minnesota, Aromashodu was brought back into the fold, but I wouldn't get too excited. Devin making the team means that something was went wrong; WR is actually a strength of the Bears at the moment (at least, it's not a weakness).
What to Expect
It'll be an interesting training camp. This is the first time that Marc Trestman really make his presence felt on the roster, though I wouldn't expect him (or any other team, for that matter) to show a whole lot of scheme in training camp. There are a few training camp positional battles; primarily, the fight to replace Urlacher will be interesting. I think the job is Bostic's to lose, if only because there's likely to be some pressure to play some of the recent draft picks that Emery has selected (and Williams will probably find himself arrested somehow).
If you're thinking about attending training camp. you totally should! I've been (it's at Olivet Nazarene University), and it's pretty fun. There's not a TON to do there, but you get fairly close to the players (Devin Hester was close enough to touch on a play where he caught a ball just out of bounds) and they have a gift shop/tailgaters, that sort of thing. I almost pulled the trigger on some $4 Grossman jerseys, too, so if you want your Kellen Davis jersey it'll be there.
Comments
Took me 15 ms to read read this thread. (dying laughing)
mobile svbQuote Reply
I saw a spring training camp game years ago when they were in Wisconsin. It was cool to see Refrigerator Perry, who I believe didn’t even make the team that year, if that narrows down the timeframe (hint: they sucked).
joshQuote Reply
I don’t like the Soriano trade one bit.
Pay $16 mil or whatever to trade away a proven producer and leader for a guy that has a 15% chance of making the bigs? We got nothing pushing Soriano in AAA. The FA market isn’t overflowing with top OF. The trade shows money isn’t the issue.
I’m not saying that Black is a poor return if you look at the trade in a vacuum. I am saying that sometimes no trade is better than what looks good on paper. I don’t think this trade helps in the short term even with the low expectations we have for the Cubs next year. I also don’t think it helps much in the long term.
It does help my 100 loss prediction for 2013 though. That’s been taking a beating lately.
mobile svbQuote Reply
I believe Sedrick Ellis has decided to retire.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Let’s suppose Soriano would only play 115 more games for the Cubs by the end of his contract. I bet there is a 75% chance he’d amass more value ib 115 games than Black’s whole career.
mobile svbQuote Reply
@ mobile svb:
This was really the best opportunity to get ANYTHING for Soriano. Nobody was going to want Soriano to be an important part of their team to start a season when everything is hope and roses. The best chance they had was to send him to a place that NEEDED him right now and was willing to live with next year for the right price.
If they tried to trade him this off-season, they would likely not find any takers, especially considering the limited pool of choices he would consent to being traded to. If they wait until NEXT trade deadline, he could have re-fallen off the table production-wise or gotten re-injured PLUS, there’s not guarantee there would be a similar situation next year where the stars all aligned.
So I think in order to get anything at all in return for him, the time had to be now.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Apparently, Long’s seeing time at RG today in practice.
MylesQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
That’s what I get for writing the bulk of this article on Wednesday. Sedrick, why?
MylesQuote Reply
Does production from Soriano over the next two years even do any good? Yeah, maybe they luck into being a fringe contender next year, but I doubt it. At that point all Soriano’s potential production does is hurt the quality of draft pick we get.
The salary relief isn’t inconsequential, and Black has some decent upside while adding to the pool of hard-throwers that the next good Cubs team’s bullpen is going to be made up of. If you want to argue that Soriano’s leadership is valuable to a club with so many young guys, okay, I can buy that, but other than that I have trouble seeing this deal as something other than a win.
sitrick2Quote Reply
@ mobile svb:
I don’t disagree with you at all on the return SVB but I think more than anything they wanted to free up LF/roster spot. The FO wants to spend the rest of this season evaluating Lake, Sweeney, Bogusevic, and maybe even that Gillespie dude, for better or worse. I also assume moving Soriano now (while they could) has to do with them wanting to have someone else in LF in 2014, when they look to be on the fringe of contention, whether that’s Choo or somebody else. I expect an OF FA signing this offseason, and since its the trade deadline, there’s probably more of a market for Soriano than there would be this offseason.
NateQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
@ sitrick2:
@ Nate:
I understand all that you guys said. I get it. But in this case I think the “anything” they get is worth far less than what they had. They can look at Sweeney et al in CF or RF when they trade those guys and I don’t think Sweeney and Bogusevic are much of a mystery anyway.
If I had a party today and had a couple pieces of the yummy Red Velvet cake left over, I’d eat it. Not trade it for a powdered donut.
mobile svbQuote Reply
Myles,
Any chance you’d be able to break down or provide some things to watch for in regards to Trestman’s WCO, or certain skills to look for in players?
EdwinQuote Reply
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130726/SPORTS0104/307260050/1129/Tigers-Omar-Infante-suffers-setback-Darin-Downs-likely-return-Friday
Tigers have expressed interest in Barney in the past.
GWQuote Reply
Edwin wrote:
I plan on talking about it later (WCO), but I still need to research it more because honestly I’m not incredibly comfortable with it. That being said, I feel like (at first glance) it kind of plays to Cutler’s strengths, something that Tice didn’t really do and Martz REALLY didn’t do.
MylesQuote Reply
@ mobile svb:
I also think this FO is intent on getting as much value out of expiring assets as possible. If you hold on to Sori through this trade deadline, you likely have him run out the remainder of his contract and retire or sign a FA contract elsewhere. At that point, you have nothing to show but another 1.3 years of an aging outfielder on a non-contending team. I also think, as much value as he had as a team leader, he wasn’t selling tickets, and that’s what the game is really about until you’re contending for real. Hopefully, there is enough leadership in the dugout (coaching staff) that you don’t miss Sori’s character THAT much.
This team is about future production, not current. A chance that Black might be a valuable reliever in a few years is worth more than what Sori provides now and next year, IMO, even if Black doesn’t pan out.
26.2cubfanQuote Reply
New Aside
MylesQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Not to toot my own horn, but I think 4-5 guys I mocked/liked for CHI ended up on the team. Might have been a round or so off on them, but hey.
Ryno wrote:
That’s all I could find in the way of proof.
Toot, toot.
Bill ClayQuote Reply
I should revise my statement about the WCO playing to Cutler’s strengths. I think he can really maximize it’s potential with his mobility (punishing cheating defenses), but he does lack some of the intermediate accuracy that’s really important to succeed in the WCO. Cutler (and his receivers) have never really been known as great timing guys, which is fairly essential to it being successful. Then again, that’s probably exactly what is being worked on at the moment.
MylesQuote Reply
Coincidentally, I’ve tried to get my hands on a Finding the Winning Edge, but it’s very pricey.
MylesQuote Reply
I hate T’e’o’ and my only wish was that the Bears wouldn’t draft him. However, I follow two teams, and I forgot to wish for the other one not to draft him.
Fucking Chargers.
MylesQuote Reply
mobile svb wrote:
Yeah, but if you were too full to enjoy eating the red velvet cake before it got stale, would you trade that cake for a powdered donut next week? That’s the analogy here. If you’re willing to accept that the Cubs won’t contend next year (which seems like a pretty solid assumption to me), Soriano’s production in the last year of his contract is worth nothing, and maybe less if it drops you in the 2015 draft or keeps you from developing alternatives.
You could probably have kept him around and not done any significant damage to your chances of building a winner, in all honesty. The chances of either decision having any impact on the organization are very remote. In that case, the deal breaks down to saving six million bucks, which may come in handy if the Cubs are serious about adding an impact bat next year.
uncle dave on the goQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
In regards to the Soriano trade, when Theo made the Marshall trade, he said something along the lines of turning short term assets into long term assets and I think that’s what he did with Soriano. Time will tell how the trade turns out but if Black turns into a solid reliever, maybe 8th inning guy or something, then I think that’s a pretty good trade for Soriano at this point in his career.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Bill Clay:
I remember thinking how spot on you were when the Bears were drafting. I was thinking “man, maybe that Ryno guy isn’t completely full of shit after all” (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
Stockpiling arms is not a bad idea, and Soriano in worth as much as he’ll ever be. Plus, you trade Sori to a team where he can help them win a championship, then you are essentially rewarding the man for years of excellent service with a ring. You could take it as kind of selfish to keep him.
joshQuote Reply
Mucker wrote:
FALSE
MishQuote Reply
Myles,
Is there any chance that the Bears use Devin Hester on special teams coverage plays as well as in the return game? With his athleticism, do you think this is something he could be good at?
Sorry if I’m asking too many questions. It’s a slow day at work, and I don’t really know of too many good football blogs.
EdwinQuote Reply
Mucker wrote:
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
I still think the Cubs should be trying to trade Barney as a SS. He could play there still I think.
NateQuote Reply
@ mobile svb:
I’m way behind on this conversation because I’m at work, but if you can get equal value of what Sori would produce in LF from a platoon of Sweeney and Lake, then you just gained the 7M you saved, as well as the prospect. I don’t think 2 WAR in 2014 from Sweeney/Lake is unreasonable at all. Use the 7M to resign Scott Baker, who can then be traded at next years deadline for something. Or use is to get Choo in LF next year so that by 2015, the team is killing it. I think they traded Soriano because his production was replaceable by people on the roster, Hell, Olt could be in LF next year.
NateQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
At least he didn’t get life.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ Nate:
Yep. Save money by using cheaper options for the same production. If that’s not the heart of moneyball, then what the fuck is?
joshQuote Reply
The Cubs currently have 0 bad contracts on the books.
NateQuote Reply
Sweeney isn’t signed for next year.
As for Hester, I don’t think he’ll cover, though he could probably gun. He’s “too valuable” to put in coverage, and I’d rather see younger players play ST anyway.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
He’s only doing returns this season, correct?
joshQuote Reply
@ mobile svb:
It depends entirely on how you look at it. Soriano is old and wasn’t going to be a part of a contending team, so why not get back whatever you can? If the report is accurate, the Cubs had little leverage since Soriano agreed to only accept a trade to the Yankees. That they even got Black in return is really good when you consider that.
I wouldn’t say he has a 15% chance of reaching the big leagues. He’s pitched pretty well to this point in his career as a starter. He’ll most likely be a reliever and with that velocity, I think he’ll move quickly. Even if it was 15%, you’re still trading a player that isn’t really that valuable (either to the Cubs or any other team for that matter).
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
They bought a lottery ticket with a Canadian dollar. You shrug and move on.
joshQuote Reply
It’s basically a non-move. That said, Fonzy seems like an extremely nice fellow and it well be weird not having him in the lineup.
joshQuote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
josh wrote:
Yep. As it should have always been.
MylesQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Nate:
Do we have a list somewhere of their obligations to other teams and longterm payouts of contacts for people no longer on the roster?
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
Nice writeup on the bears, Myles. I’m looking forward to preseason games this year because i want to see the new scheme, even if it’s the vanilla version of it.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
Pretty sure Soriano is it beyond this year. Plus, that money changes hands at the time of the trade. It may still technically count against any budget next year, but it’s already been shipped off to the Yankees.
dmick89Quote Reply
GWQuote Reply
cash or ptbnl
GWQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
They’ll have only money on the books for Soriano next year. http://baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?team=CHN&cyear=2013
The Yankees pay $5 million next year for Soriano and the Cubs pay $14 million. This is BP’s compensation for the 2014 Cubs: http://baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?team=CHN&cyear=2013
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs 2014 salary from BP: 9 total players, $49,259,524 total salary
The Cubs have a good amount of money they can spend this offseason.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2013/07/26/sf-giants-to-activate-infielder-arias-schierholtz-batting-cleanup-for-cubs/
dmick89Quote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Wasn’t there an old meme around these parts that had something to do with “that money goes to pay _____’s salary”?
uncle dave on the goQuote Reply
@ GW:
Moscoso was a waiver claim, right? Good to know that the Cubs are making something out of their seemingly endless supply of below-average #5 starters.
Almost related: I was at the Giants-Reds game the other day and Gaudin was pitching. Dude behind me at one point yells, “throw a strike, you pervert!”
uncle dave on the goQuote Reply
@ uncle dave on the go:
Was it Milton Bradley? It just kept going on and on. That’s what made it great. The media repeated it for years.
Might ask MO on twitter about that.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
yeah, it involved bradley and whoever the fat pitcher was they got from the mariners
GWQuote Reply
@ uncle dave on the go:
Carlos Silva. Can’t remember the details.
Also, Carlos Pena (I think it was him) had his one-year salary spread over two years or somesuch.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ GW:
Carlos Silva. (The ‘fat pitcher’ part was a dead giveaway.)
uncle dave on the goQuote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/cubs-trade-guillermo-moscoso-to-as.html
dmick89Quote Reply