Training camp is under way, and (precious few) interesting tidbits have emerged:
The Bears used pads for the first time on Sunday.
Devin Hester apparently IS going to at least practice some expanded ST duties this year. He apparently almost blocked a kick in practice, according to a Zach Zaidman tweet (he's a good follow).
Jermon Bushrod is day-to-day with a calf injury. That probably means he's going to be laid up for a week or so, giving some first-team reps to Eben Britton (would be my guess: it could be Jordan Mills, a rookie). I tweeted Zach about this (and you should follow Zach if you like Bears football, he's a great, informative follow) and haven't heard a response yet.
Turk McBride is out for the year with a torn Achilles. Combined with Sedrick Ellis' retirement, the Bears have lost some DL depth already. McBride is relatively fungible so I wouldn't be worried at all.
Nothing really happens in the first week of training camp. When the first round of cuts happens, things will get more serious and interesting. Also, the first preseason game is Aug. 8-11 against the Panthers (the actual date is TBD).
Comments
Anybody want my tickets for the Puig debut at Wrigley on Thursday evening?
I think the face is like $52 each. I’m selling them for $50 for the pair.
Section 409, Row 5 (I think… row 5 or 6, anyway) – right above the Cubs bullpen.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Don’t you guys every watch baseball documentaries or highlights of the olden days when they show them on TV? OK, so I remember watching Reggie, but I knew most of the earlier guys from watching film of them when I was a baseball obsessed kid. I mean Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Ruth, Dimaggio – how can you not know which way they hit?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Shut up. Football thread.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I was more confused about some of the more recent guys. I couldn’t, for the life of me, picture Evan Longoria batting. But I guessed right. I guessed right on Al Kaline too. I don’t know why I thought Joe DiMaggio batted lefty.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
Did you read that Nate Silver interview in Deadspin yesterday? Nate mentioned that we should think about replacement level for many things, including restaurants. He said Qdoba was a replacement level fast food place. I have a problem with that. McDonalds has to be replacement level for fast food. I’ve never had Qdoba or Chipotle, but I bet anything they’re better than replacent level simply because fast food sucks. It has to be on the higher end in that category. If we use the same method, I’d bet we’d find that, of fast food places, McDonald’s makes up about 20% of them. Close to anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
If we’re talking ‘Mexican’ food, Taco Bell has to be the baseline.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I like Chipotle, but if I have one of their burritos for lunch I’m planning on a pretty small dinner.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I though Olive Garden was replacement level? Didn’t we already do this?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
It’s weird; I’d seen the Pine Tar Incident many times, but somehow always saw Brett as a righty.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/other-topics/tgif-is-a-replacement-level-restaurant.html
dmick89Quote Reply
Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, DiMaggio, etc., I know by heart (as well as Foxx, Hornsby, Cobb, Berra, Wagner, etc.), but Reggie somehow slipped my mind. Maybe it’s latent racism on my part.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I couldn’t think of Joe Morgan’s handedness either, so that must be it. Damn.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I wish I had more thoroughly considered that before writing. You have to group restaurants into at least fast food, which doesn’t even bother trying to make the food good or even appealing, and other, non-fast food places. You could create as many groups as you want, but the quality won’t really represent replacement level, IMO. I mean, what would be the point of a replacement level fine dining establishment? I don’t see how that would tell us anything.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
From what I’ve heard, Chipotle uses enough salt in a burrito to kill a horse. Is that true?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’ve never noticed it, but I’m someone who fucking loves salt so who knows (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
I don’t see the point of “replacement level restaurants” either. The reason we talk of replacement players is that players are a limited quantity, and bad players vastly outnumber good ones. I just don’t see how that applies to restaurants.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I like small amounts of salt, but too much and I can’t eat it. Sounds like a lot healthy things at Chipotle, except the sodium content.
http://www.livestrong.com/article/417067-is-chipotle-food-healthy/#page=5
dmick89Quote Reply
If your star player breaks down, you replace him with a crappy player (either a minor leaguer or some other team’s castoff). If your favorite restaurant is closed, you don’t give up and go to Burger King.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think CHI wins 9 games this year.
From what I’ve heard about the offense CHI is implementing, they should be able to move the ball more consistently. That said, I don’t think it fits their QB (big arm, erratic).
It sounds crazy, but they should have considered trading Cutler. I bet NYJ, BUF, MIN or ARI would have given up something like a combination of a 1, 2 and 3 over the next two years, which CHI could have used on Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib. I like Cutler, but I’d take Barkley, a 1 and a 2 over Cutler in a WCO any day.
Defensively, I think there will be a slight regression simply because they forced so many turnovers last year and scored so many points directly off them. I don’t think that’s sustainable.
Bill ClayQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Bill ClayQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
They advertise on the fact that they use antibiotic + hormone-free, etc., meats in their food, FWIW. The quality of ingredients is way higher than qdoba.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Because I know you’re interested, I think SF wins 10 games this season.
They should be much better on offense now that Kaepernick has had some time to run the offense. The loss of Crabtree hurts, but Boldin is an adequate replacement.
Defensively, they’ll give up a few more big plays, so I expect some regression.
On paper, the team should be about the same. The difference for me is the schedule.
Green Bay
Seattle x2
Houston
at New Orleans
at Washington
Atlanta
Those are all going to be tough games, and that’s not even including two against STL (whom we didn’t beat last year).
Bill ClayQuote Reply
@ Bill Clay:
What do you think of GB this year, Ryno?
BerseliusQuote Reply
Chipotle definitely uses a shit ton of salt in the rice. But damn it’s good.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
The rice is my the favorite part of their burritos, that must be why, heh
BerseliusQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Your pricing is an insult to their best customers. Are you also throwing in a $10 voucher for food?
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
As of right now, I see it happening like this:
AFC
1. DEN
2. NE
3. BAL
4. HOU
5. PIT
6. CIN
NFC
1. GB
2. SEA
3. ATL
4. NYG
5. SF
6. NO
Bill ClayQuote Reply
The only way I’d pay $50 to go to a Cubs game this season is if I get to watch Jeff Francouer hit a walk off grand slam off Marmol to come within 8 games of 3rd place in the NL Central.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
I think they represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Adding Datone Jones is going to be HUGE for that defense depending on how quickly he picks up the nuances of 5-tech.
It will be interesting to see what they do on offense. They picked up two good RBs in the daft, but that line isn’t going to help them any.
Overall, though, their schedule looks to be the easiest of the contenders, imo.
I think Seattle at home is the best team in the NFL. On the road, though, they’re middle of the pack. They and SF play in what might be the toughest division in the NFL.
ATL will have to face a resurgent NO team that I think will play really well this season and a CAR team that will surprise.
Bill ClayQuote Reply
WenningtonsGorillaCock wrote:
I would, but nobody on the Dodgers or Cubs has been suspended in the Biogenesis stuff. Yet.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I don’t think replacement level has to be so rigid in every area. I see it as a definition, which can vary from field to field. As long as it’s defined, I’m fine with using it any way possible. Definitely with restaurants, which I actually think have a lot in common with, for example, baseball. Baseball has various skills and all of them aren’t necessary to play at the MLB level. I don’t have to go over those skills.
In food service, there are a number of things a customer considers before making a decision (doesn’t include everything and in no specific order): hospitality, price, quality, location, menu, atmosphere and others. Each restaurant can excel in different ways and be successful.
I stand by my article about TGIF being a replacement level restaurant. It is. There are many, many, many places that are better, even at the same price or cheaper. There are also some that are worse. I’m not include fast food places because those would have to be looked at differently.
I’d wager that 80-90% of the restaurants in this country are better than TGIF. That said, it performs a service and it has some value. They’re usually win at location and if time is important, they are, I’d assume, pretty good at getting your ass in and out of there.
The problem with the idea of replacement level in restaurants isn’t that it’s not doable. It’s that, realistically, it is not. You couldn’t crowdsource the idea because Americans suck at choosing food. They suck when it comes to where they go out to eat and what they make it home.
Replacement level in baseball is a theory. There’s no reason at all that it can’t be adapted to other disciplines.
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
It’s not about the Cubs. It’s about PUIG! Catch PUIG FEVER!! Watch him tee off on Chris Rusin!!
Junior Lake is just kind of a bonus. Like a free peeler when you order a set of Ginsu knives.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Also, keep in mind the difference in practice and theory as to how replacement level works. The assumption in theory is that replacement level alternatives are readily available. In practice, many fail to reach replacement level performance (like most of the Cubs hitters last year, for instance).
Qdoba could be a replacement level restaurant in those terms. McDonalds is more like the Darnell McDonald of fast food, no value whatsoever but has still managed to find a place in a great number of locations.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Good point. I’d started another comment kind of along the lines of your first paragraph, but it’s really not worth it. I’d also mention that, at the career level wins and ERA are pretty good metrics. I’d compare them to restaurant ratings (stars). They’re pretty good, but they miss enough that another metric would be useful.
The other drawback to restaurant replacement level is that you can’t crowdsource anything because America sucks at eating. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
How dare you associate Guy Fuckin’ Fieri with a replacement level restaurant.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
On the contrary, we’re great at eating, we just suck at finding good stuff to eat. As a guy who spent a good chunk of the last three years trying (and failing) to eat well on the road, I can tell you that the 30 pounds I gained didn’t come as a result of being bad at eating…
I wouldn’t trust us to crowdsource my next meal, though, no doubt about that.
Also, can’t have a conversation about TGI McFriendly’s without thinking of this:
http://youtu.be/MFZG8KQJni8
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Just because a player’s performance falls below replacement for some period of time, doesn’t mean his talent is below replacement. Based on regression toward the mean, the number of players with negative WAR(P) in a given year will be greater than the number of sub-replacement-level players. I suspect that the number of sub-replacement players in the MLB is actually quite small (at least before the September roster expansion).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Also the sub-replacement players who actually make it to the 25-man rosters tend to get very little playing time (e.g., Gillespie.).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Of all the players on the Cubs this year with negative rWAR, Gillespie is the only one I would call a sub-replacement player (Lillibridge also has negative career rWAR, but just barely so), and he barely played at all. And the Cubs are a bad team, so I doubt there are more than 30 like him. Every once in a while, a horrendous player like Koyie Hill will get over 100 PA’s, but it’s rare. I think replacement level does a pretty good job of describing the bottom of the MLB talent barrel (though, not the performance barrel).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
That’s certainly a valid point with respect to performance vs. talent, and I’d not be surprised if the typically small sample sizes of guys who hover around replacement level also have an effect on what their collective performance looks like on a year-by-year basis.
I’m gonna throw out something I’ve been thinking about for a while (unrelated to fast food restaurants, unfortunately). If you accept that the universe of baseball talent is distributed normally, MLB would be at the very extreme right tail of that distribution. As you expand the player pool, you get into an ever-increasing range of similar choices — that is, the population immediately to the right of the cutoff line is going to be significantly smaller than the population immediately to the left. If you make an additional assumption that a GM looking for a replacement level player is going to be smart enough to focus on a pretty tight band of candidates grouped right around that replacement-level line, we would then expect that a random selection would more often than not result in someone below replacement level, as there are simply more guys within the pool of available candidates that fit that description.
I don’t think that GMs pick these guys at random and they’re pretty good at their jobs for the most part. However, I think that this is probably one of those areas that really set good GMs apart from bad ones — not just your ability to ID good talent and bring it in a below market prices, but also the ability to ID good talent at that replacement level margin and avoid handing roster spots to guys who are on the wrong side of that line.
The Cubs have been very good at that this year. Not so much last year, I guess. That’s my cutting edge analysis on the topic (dying laughing).
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Yeah, I agree GM’s do screw up sometimes and over-promote someone (again, Koyie Hill). I say that’s a problem for reality, not the model. (dying laughing)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Also, there are sometimes situations where a good GM might promote a sub-replacement player, either an emergency (e.g., top 5 guys at a position are injured), or promoting a prospect over his head (Jackson, Vitters).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Indeed.
So are we gonna make any more fuckin’ trades? After tomorrow, I’m not sure I have an excuse to pay attention to the Cubs for the rest of the year.
uncle daveQuote Reply
BaPro did a scouting profile on Vogelbach (behind paywall): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21382
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
They’re excused.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
Bill ClayQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Bill ClayQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
Bill ClayQuote Reply
giggity
uncle daveQuote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/george-ofman-doesnt-like-when-you-draw-negative-conclusions-about-him-based-on-small-sample-sizes-of-his-work.html
Aisle424Quote Reply