Baseball America’s international free agency guru Ben Badler was on the Baseball America Podcast today, where he discussed many of the issues we’ve been debating around these parts related to the Cubs’ sticky situation. It was a very informative interview, so I have transcribed extensively. To date, Badler has correctly predicted the signing team for 20 of the 22 signed free agents from his top 30, so he definitely has his ear to the ground in this process.
On Teams’ Familiarity with Eloy and Gleyber
A guy like Eloy Jimenez… was in Amauris Nina’s program when Elier Hernandez was a sixteen year old kid who was popping up on the radar [2011]… Back then was when teams were getting their first look at Eloy Jimenez, so they’ve been scouting him for years. There are kids in Venezuela like Gleyber Torres, Greifer Andrade, all these guys who have been playing for Venezuelan tournament teams… since they were fifteen, fourteen, sometimes as young as 12 years old… So they’ve known about these guys for a long time.
On the Cubs’ Bonus Pool Situation
I think what you’re seeing the Cubs do is pretty much what we expected, they signed Moreno, they signed Gleyber Torres, they signed Jefferson Mejia, and I think they’re probably, once they acquire the pool space, going to sign Eloy Jimenez, but they don’t have the pool space right now to be able to do that. I’m sure they are not thrilled that they have to make trades before the trade deadline, when other teams realize that their backs are up against the wall… because teams [now] know that what we wrote was 100% accurate. So they are kind of losing a little bit of leverage in the trade market when they are trying to trade someone like Matt Garza or somebody else on their major league team … And that’s why you’re seeing them say things like “Oh, yeah, we don’t definitely have to acquire more pool space.” Things like that.
On the Possibility Of Going Into the Penalty
… I mean, I wouldn’t be surprised if they did just end up going over it, and paying the penalty anyway if they can’t acquire that pool space. They would have severely miscalculated. …That’s great that you might be able to get Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres. Talent-wise we have them as the top two players on the board, but if they overcommitted to somebody like Erling Moreno or Jefferson Mejia, or anybody else, not realizing.. “oh shoot, we’re not going to have the pool space to sign all these guys,” and having to pay the penalty [next year] when you’re probably going to have… one of the top five bonus pools again. To not be able to sign a guy for over $250,000 next year… I mean, you could have still signed Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres and then kept your pool money for the next year. So sure, maybe they could trade some of that pool space, but that pretty significantly handcuffs you.
Contrasting Implications for Overspending between the Cubs and Rangers
For [the Rangers], I can see them having more justification than if the Cubs end up doing that, because the Rangers are probably going to have one of the smallest pools next year, so you could say, alright let’s take an every-other-year strategy to the international market. Now if you’re the Cubs, and next year your bonus pool is going to be three and a half million dollars, then that sort of … cuts off a window of opportunity you’ve been afforded, so I don’t agree with a decision to pay the penalty… But, if you’re looking at probably having a bonus pool that’s at the bottom of the pack, I can understand going for a lot of the guys that you have at the top of your board, and saying “alright, we’ll swallow it for next year.”
On the Possibility of Backing Out of A Deal
They made those commitments to guys, or sort of gave their word to them, but they didn’t have those trades worked out before July 2nd… If teams can’t come up with those trades and unless they’re really committed, “we’re going to honor those deals not matter what”… It could create some very volatile situations with some very powerful dudes, so I don’t think that’s in the best interest of anyone.
On Ronald Torreyes
It’s not so much that he’s young in double-A, I don’t really care so much about that, but just the bat control that he has and I think he’s a good defender at second base. I like him a lot more than some of these guys who are in the top 30… I certainly understand the strategy that [the Astros] were trying to take this year.
On Talent Tiers
You could put any of those top ten guys in just about any order; I think those guys pretty clearly separated themselves. All ten of those guys, that was pretty strong consensus that those were definitely the top ten ten guys in the class this year. Once you get past the top twenty or so guys, the difference in talent is just so thin…
On Leonard Molina
I think that once Leonardo Molina turns 16 in August, [the Yankees] will probably sign him for about one and a half million dollars…
Comments
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MylesQuote Reply
Sounds like Badler isn’t too impressed with the Cubs strategy here. Thanks for doing the work GW.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
It comes off more harshly in pixel form than it did on the podcast. I mean, they talked about the contrasting strategies of the astros (acquiring quantity to lead to more big league players) vs the cubs (impact talent!), things we’ve discussed around here before. He’s definitely not buying the FO line about intending to go over all along, though.
GWQuote Reply
Yeah, GW. You’re the man.
MylesQuote Reply
I don’t think the Cubs will sign Eloy if it means going over the pool, but I guess I’m not sure how buscone stuff really works.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
we will find out soon enough, i suspect
GWQuote Reply
vogelbach’s twitter is @flowbro3
(dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
It was Vogyvog, so he changed it to that specifically
MylesQuote Reply
Baez —> Tennessee
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I think it’s because Pierce Johnson is another Flowbro…not sure who Flowbro1 and Flowbro2 are, though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Jesse Sanchez was on MLB.com radio today too talking about the Cubs and other IFA stuff. But I didn’t get to hear much of it…
SVBQuote Reply
every day that passes w/out an Eloy signing reduces the plausibility of the “we don’t care about the penalties” theory, imo, as well as any leverage they had in trade negotiations
GWQuote Reply
Matt Cain sure didn’t have it tonight. 8 ER, 2.1 IP, 10 BB+H
SVBQuote Reply
One thing that gives me some hope on the Cubs IFA budget is the last amateur draft. It looked like they’d overspent and were going to give Bryant the leverage to hold their first round pick next year in jeopardy, but they came in about $10k under to take Bryant’s leverage away.
Based on that, I’d say they have a plan and they know where it’s going.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
yeah, i called them “predictably competent” after that. difference here is they are at the mercy of other orgs, not draftees
GWQuote Reply
if you are a team that has pool space and is interested in Garza, aren’t you just offering pool space at this point? there can’t be to many teams out there that fit the bill, which means the cubs are probably shopping minor leaguers to avoid the need for that move.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’d probably offer more and think another team would, too. I know what you’re saying and it makes sense, but GMs genuinely want to make trades that work out for both teams. Obviously they exploit what they can, but they don’t want any bad blood because they may have to work with these guys in the future.
Awhile back you mentioned the possibility of trading Baez, didn’t you? I could definitely see that.
What teams have the space left that would help the Cubs?
dmick89Quote Reply
Considering what the Cubs are asking for Garza, I doubt this front office will settle for getting screwed.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
i take it back. looks like there is still lots of space out there.
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
agreed. they will balance the cost of acquiring space with the cost of the penalty, i’m sure.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
how much space do they need? I haven’t been keeping up with that.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the PIrates end up with Matt Garza even though they haven’t been rumored to be involved yet. The Cubs could add a guy like Torreyes and probably get enough space back.
The question becomes, is that worth it? Do you pay the penalty instead? I really don’t want to give up another guy like Torreyes for a little cash.
If I was Thoyer, I might be tempted to back out of the Moreno contract if it’s not officially official. If they do a physical there will definitely be something in there that could give them reason to do it. I don’t see it happening. The Cubs built the new facility there and they want good relationships and that could become problematic later on.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
i have them needing ~$602k, assuming they are willing to go 5% over and the eloy deal is for $2.81M. Plenty of teams should have that.
Side note: Jesse Sanchez has Erling Moreno at $650k rather than the $800k reported by BA. That would be helpful, if true.
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I may look at some trade possibilites later. Not sure, though. It could well be rendered meaningless while I’m writing.
GWQuote Reply
I feel like the Cubs have so many trades left that they can still grab a few slots piece by piece to make up the remainder. It doesn’t have to be just Garza; it can be Garza, Navarro, Schierholtz, Hairston, Villanueva, or whoever they end up trading. I think Garza and Navarro are gone for sure, and Nate is probably gone unless they really think 2014 is open.
MylesQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Or for that matter, simply decide not to sign Jimenez.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/community/estimating-pitcher-release-point-distance-from-pitchfx-data/
I’ve always thought that this had really important implications. Seems to me that adding another camera to the pitchf/x system would be more practical, though.
GWQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
my guess is that they are all official, save jimenez. maybe matos. so it would pretty much have to be jimenez. I can’t see them doing that, though.
GWQuote Reply
@ Myles:
the issue with doing it piecewise is timing. how long will they ask eloy to wait? the rangers could spend that time getting to know him better.
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
That’s true, I suppose. Also, Sosa started his career in Texas, which clearly is the most important factor at play here (dying laughing)
MylesQuote Reply
I’m kinda surprised no one has observed how much Navarro has been playing lately. I mean, he’s hitting really well, probably the best he has in his career, but it seems obvious he’s being showcased for a trade, assuming that kind of thing actually happens. Not that he’d bring back much, but a competent back-up catcher with a semi-legit bat off the bench can help a playoff team. I’d also be totally unsurprised if Bert Jackson or Josh Vitters aren’t added to a trade before the deadline.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/7/6/4498322/minor-league-ball-gameday-july-6
I always appreciate the perspective that Sickels has on prospects. I think it’s only good news that they deemed Baez ready for promotion. I’d bet if Soler wasn’t injured, he’d be going too.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
new shit
sitrickQuote Reply