The St. Louis Cardinals got screwed.
Let's wind the clock back to November 17, 2014. The Cardinals trade Tyrell Jenkins and Shelby Miller for Jason Heyward (and Jordan Walden). At the time, it seemed like a slight overpay – on the Braves part. Shelby Miller was damaged goods; many people thought Tyrell Jenkins was the better piece in the deal. Jenkins is probably a reliever at the end of the day, but a major league one. Shelby Miller became the hot trade target of this offseason, netting a king's ransom from the Diamondbacks. All of this would have been fine from a Cardinal standpoint – if they could only convince Heyward to re-sign with the Redbirds.
That didn't happen.
Jason Heyward need not bring his wallet to any bar in Chicagoland for the rest of his life, though he certainly could afford to (8 years, 184 million dollars). Born in NJ but raised in the greater Atlanta area, Heyward had no particular affinity for St. Louis or the Cardinal Way. Instead, he had a wan for the Human Way – sign with whatever team makes the most sense. For him, that was the Cubs. I think we're all thrilled about that.
Pedigree
Heyward was drafted by the Braves with the 14th overall pick in the 2007 draft (the Cubs opted for Josh Vitters before that pick). He was, simply put, incredible immediately. In his first full season (at 18!), he hit .316/.381/.473 over two levels (topping out at A+). In 2009 (still just 19), he hit .323/.408/.555. That was enough to convince the contending Braves to open 2010 with Heyward as the everyday RF. As a 20-year old, he hit .277/.393/.456 while getting consideration for a gold glove and finished second in ROY voting (he got robbed by Buster Posey).
Heyward has been pretty consistently great ever since, with only a minor hiccup in 2011. The eagerness for the Braves to get him in the lineup allowed his service time to start a little earlier, which meant that Heyward was a FA this year and not next year (case #35349 why the Cubs did the right thing with Bryant). Heyward joins the Cubs at the very beginning of his decline phase (and realistically, still in his prime years). This doesn't happen with free agents very often.
Offense
Let's imagine for a second that Heyward is a league-average defensive RF (he's not – spoiler alert, but he's the best defensive RF of this past decade). How much would he be worth just with the bat?
I'd wager it's a lot. Shin-Soo Choo (who I still like, don't @ me) is slightly better with the bat, and he received 7/$130 just 2 years ago (entering his age-31 season, no less). Over the past 6 seasons, Heyward has a line of .268/.353/.431, for a .345 wOBA (118 wRC+). That's not top-tier production, but it's pretty damn good. Heyward doesn't really strike out (14.8% K rate last year), walks a lot (9.2% last year), and hits for 15 or so home runs a year.
The league average for leadoff hitters last year was .269/.328/.405. Heyward is much better than that mark, and could theoretically get even better in his age-26 through age-34 seasons.
Heyward doesn't chase at pitches (28.0% o-swing against 31.0% league average). When he does swing, he makes contact (84.2% contact against 78.9% last year). Pitchers don't give him much to work with early in at-bats, which means his PAs are longer and usually more productive. Heyward (and Zobrist) have great plate discipline and will be hitters for the 3-9 guys to emulate.
Heyward's bat is worth 3 to 3.5 wins above replacement every year. That's…$23 million a year in AAV. Heyward is getting paid $23 million a year in AAV. His defense is just gravy.
Defense
Jason Heyward is the Andruw Jones of right field. This may sound outlandish, but it's true. Let's look at Inside Edge for his numbers over the past several years:
Routine plays (90-100%): 99.2% (1062 attempts). Typical is 1009, so over the past 4 years he's made 1054-1009 = 43 more routine plays than the average fielder. That's almost 11 a year (short aside: it seems that the average is much closer to 99% than 95%. My retort to this is that Heyward's volume of plays still provides an advantage for him. I could see an argument taking some of these defensive outs away, however).
Likely plays (60-90%): 91.4% (81 attempts). Typical is 61, so he adds 74-61 = 13 more likely plays than the average fielder. Another way to say this is that he makes likely plays look routine.
Even plays (40-60%): 83.3% (30 attempts). Typical is 15, so he adds 24-15 = 9 more even plays than the average fielder. Important to note here that these plays are more likely to be expected hits by the opponent, and as such, Heyward may more easily get a double play from opponents. The tally of "extra" outs is 43 + 13 + 9 = 65.
Unlikely plays (10-40%): 60.6% (33 atempts) Typical is 8, so he adds 20 – 8 = 12 more outs. 77 in total.
Remote (1-10%): 9.5% (42 attempts). Typical is 2, so he adds 4-2 = 2 more remote plays. That's 79 extra outs over 4 years over the average fielder. 20 outs a year. One every 8 games above average. That's…bonkers from a right fielder.
To get an idea of just how peerless he is, consider that he is statistically tied with Josh Reddick over the past 4 years in Likely plays, is 17% better than the next fielder in Even plays, 10% better than the next fielder in Unlikely, and statistically tied with Reddick again in Remote. Put another way, in his worst defensive category, he's still the best in the past half-decade.
Let's say you hate Inside Edge. Let's use Fielding Bible, then; 132 runs saved over 6 years (2.2 wins per year). Hate Fielding Bible, too? Let's use UZR/150, then; 18.3 runs there (1.8 wins per year).
Heyward is so good defensively, that he changes what you can do with the other two outfield positions. Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber can probably man center and left, respectively, and still maintain average OF defense. Ditto with Soler and Schwarber in right and left. This allows the Cubs to trade either Baez or Soler for pitching, if they desire. If they go out and get another defensive-minded CF, they could actually be best-of-breed here.
Outlook
A league-average bat stapled to Heyward's glove is probably worth $14 million a year. A league-average glove stapled to Heyward's bat is probably worth $20 million a year. Add the two, and $23 per for 8 prime years is an absolute, no-doubt-about-it STEAL. Add in the fact that it's addition by Cardinals subtraction and it gets even better. The average Hall-of-Famer with 2000 PAs by age-25 (post-integration, of course) had 27.5 bWAR at that point. Heyward has 31.1. Just because it's harder to see doesn't mean it isn't there. Prime-age Hall possibilities don't come around very often in free agency. The last one was Alex Rodriguez (and funnily enough, Heyward signed for less than A-Rod did 15 years ago).
There's an outside shot that we'll see this lineup at least once this year:
CF Heyward (26)
LF Schwarber (23)
3B Bryant (24)
1B Rizzo (26)
RF Soler (24)
2B Baez (23)
C Montero (32)
P Arrieta (30)
SS Russell (22)
And in that lineup, you can point to Heyward as among the older half. If that doesn't make you deliriously happy to be a Cubs fan, I have no idea what will.
Comments
How many tickets? I may be interested in July 15.
mylesQuote Reply
“If that doesn’t make you deliriously happy to be a Cubs fan, I have no idea what will.”
This.
I mean, even meatheads pining for the 2007-08 Hendry heyday should be sated with Theo bringing in Mark DeRosa 2.0 in Zobrist.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I would put a fair amount of money that the Cubs will open the year with Zobrist-Heyward (or vice versa) in the 1-2 spots in the line up, unless they face a LHP in the opener.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I’ve been mildly critical of The Plan from the start, mostly because I thought punting multiple seasons in the hopes of creating a young, cost-controlled juggernaut was fraught with too many risks. I feared a lost decade was the most likely outcome, because even if you get a good portion of what you can control right, you still have to catch more than a few breaks.
And then, well, the Superfriends got most everything on the control side right and caught all the breaks to boot. Glad my fears proved unfounded. Glad Theo bet on himself and his staff. We are in special times.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I think this is beyond even their wildest dreams. Last year was supposed to be where they figured out where their weak spots were and then used the depth in the farm system and their wallet to round out the team to be competitive.
What happened was just about every rookie played at or near what could reasonably be expected, AND they were all getting better as the year went on. Everyone figured Bryant would contribute, but being almost as valuable as Rizzo? Schwarber wasn’t even really being talked about as a major contributor in the Spring. Arrieta went to another world. Russell held his own with the bat and solidified the infield defense.
The only down parts to the year was Soler didn’t hit for as much power as we hoped and regressed defensively (though the offense turned on at the end of the year) and Baez lost all that time in the minors to injury so he’s still as big an X factor now as he was last year (though even he has shown some improvement in his approach).
So this off-season instead of trying to turn the Cubs into a contender, they are trying to turn a contender into a juggernaut and they haven’t hardly had to touch the core aside from Starlin. I don’t think anybody could/should have predicted that after 2014.
aisle424Quote Reply
aisle424,
Yep. When the outcome exceeds even the architects’ wildest aspirations you know shit has done got good.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
That all said, I am hoping for one more move. This offseason is already damn close to Jordan Shrug territory. Be nice to get it all the way there.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Just two. Aisle 436, row 5.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Cueto ——————-> Giants
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I was thinking about the J-Hey contract and what positives it could have for the team that offered the opt out. For the Cubs, I can think of two:
1. They get J-Hey for his prime years and can let him go after the opt out instead of continuing to pay top dollar for a declining player
2. The opt out serves as motivation to continue performing at the highest level
I think #2 is something that hasn’t much been talked about. A lot of players, Clayton Kershaw for example, are just wired to continue competing at the highest level. They continue to prepare during the offseason and don’t take time off from their “job”.
The other side of the coin is something we also commonly see – the player becomes demotivated. They’re already guaranteed money. They bet on their skill without putting in the work. They might even become overweight.
I can see a potential problem with this line of thinking. “Well, he’s still guaranteed a shit load of money”. True, but Grienke just made $206m with his opt out. There’s gotta be some motivation and I think an opt out does motivate at least a little. Especially when the opt out is early in a long term contract.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
What top-tier pitchers are left for St. Louis to sign?
mylesQuote Reply
I want the Cubs to sign Kenta Maeda and Austin Jackson. Trade Soler + for Carrasco.
mylesQuote Reply
I’m still not overly fond of some of the strategy behind “The Plan”. I found it to be a little too conservative at times. The results are great, but I’m not sure that that neccessarily means that the plan was perfect.
The Cubs look great, but a lot of this is due to getting some insanely great outcomes out of a number of moves. I’m sure a lot of that is just what having a great FO is all about, but look at some of these moves:
1. Rizzo turns into a 5-6 WAR player. When the Cubs got him, most considered him a back half of the top 100 prospect. If he would have turned into a 3-4 WAR player, that still would have been a great trade by the Cubs.
2. Arreita turns into a 5-7 WAR pitcher. I mean, the guy was basically 4th-5th starter fodder when the Cubs picked him up. Again, even if he turns into a solid 3 WAR pitcher, we’re all happy with the move.
3. Kris Bryant. I mean, he just put up 6 WAR as a rookie. We’re spoiled by Trout and Harper, but rookies just don’t normally do this.
4. Kyle Schwarber. Maybe they do?
5. Jeff Samardzija turning into Addison Russell. If you told me, prior to 2012, that the Cubs would end up trading Samardzija for a top 5 prospect, I’d say that’s pretty crazy. It took such a perfect storm of Hammel and Samardzija pitching well and the A’s being desperate.
And then the other random moves that work out, like Grimm, Rondon, Coghlan, Ramirez, Cahill.
It’s just crazy to me that not only did all these moves work out, but they worked out about as good as possible.
MillertimeQuote Reply
I think they’re all gone at this point if we’re defining top tier as Price, Greinke, and Cueto.
I think it’s only Leake remaining out of the second tier as well.
PerkinsQuote Reply
This has me profoundly worried that the corresponding karmic realignment will be a soul-crushing series of injuries or something. The Cubs’ execution of The Plan has been the baseball equivalent of the Battle of Midway.
The only move that really seemed to go tits up was the EJax signing. The cultural shift in the entire organization over the last few years has been remarkable.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Millertime,
On one hand, I sympathize with what you’re saying, on the other… so now we’re criticizing the Plan for working too well? Would another strategy not have required a similar amount of good fortune? Looking on it now seems to me all plans require certain things to go better than you expected. Only way anyone wins a WS and/or sustains success, I would think.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Perkins,
Fuck karma. Shit does happen, but unlike prior years (or the Prior years), there is depth to cover the drop off and talent is distributed across several players.
Maybe this spitballing will make you feel better:
According to someone somewhere, I believe the standard deviation of team WAR to team record is about 6.5 wins. So if 99 wins is the center of the bell curve, and assuming a skewness toward .500, an off the cuff distribution of the Cubs record is:
≤ 76 wins: 1 out of 750 times
77–83 wins: 1 out of 40 times
84–90 wins: 1 out of 7 times
91–98 wins: 1 out of 3 times
99–106 wins: 1 out of 3 times
107–112 wins: 1 out of 7 times
113–117 wins: 1 out of 40 times
≥ 118 wins: 1 out of 750 times
Most wins ever: 116, 116, 114, 111.
Holy shitballing!
ceruleanQuote Reply
You have the Opt out wrong. Heyward has the rights to opt out at years 3 & 4. The Cubs don’t have any rights to Opt him out. He is guaranteed all the money unless he Opts out
JimQuote Reply
cerulean,
So you’re saying they’ll definitely win >118 games. (dying laughing)
I agree that their depth is insane, and that’s certainly a comfort. This is a tremendously exciting time to be a Cubs fan.
PerkinsQuote Reply
No I know the player is the one to opt out. But for a player to have that option and make more money is incentive for him to play well enough so that that scenario can play out.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Actual standings over 162 games it’s something like 7-8 wins for 1 standard deviation. For projections, it’s 10-12.
These Steamer projections are impressive, but let’s remember, this is a WAR total. It’s fine and dandy for a back of the napkin calculation, which I’ve regularly done around here, but to use it as if the team is projected to win that many is not accurate. We need simulations of the entire season to know that and in order to do the simulations, the rest of the rosters have to fill out. Then it’s 10-12.
dmick89Quote Reply
On contract options:
While not exactly the same as call options, the risk profile is very similar. An call option is the right buy a stock at a given price (the strike price). You pay for that right, risking only the cost to purchase. Selling a call option earns a premium, but caps your upside while leaving the seller possibly having to purchase the stock at whatever price it is and deliver it to the option holder for the strike price. This is why people who sell calls often own the stock itself, which in combination is a covered call—if the call is exercised, the purchaser of the option wants to purchase the stock, you’ve got it covered—your stock goes to the buyer and you receive the payment for the amount of stock times that agreed upon strike price.
It’s a little convoluted, but the risk can be divided into three parts:
If the value of the asset goes up, the seller of the option only nets the cost of the option plus the strike price. The buyer can exercise the option and cash in on the difference.
If the value of the asset sticks at the strike price, the seller still nets the cost of the option which earns a little bit. The buyer of the option either loses his entire premium or can cash in for part of it.
If the value of the asset goes way down, the seller still nets the premium, but the asset has declined in value. The buyer lost the premium, but isn’t liable for the further decline.
For Heyward then, his performance is the asset. We know that the value we put on performance has been going up—it’s boom times in baseball—but that might not continue. And let’s be honest, Heyward’s particular kind of performance isn’t quite as appreciated by many of the other investors, which itself may change in the next few years. So the Cubs got a deal in that regard. They also collected premiums on the multiple options they sold to Heyward. I see the double option as having a pretty significant value for him, just in case year three is a rough year, he still has a chance to turn it around for year four. Basically, the options give him the right to purchase his performance and resell it for a higher price.
The three scenarios work out like this:
If boom times continue or Heywards performance increases, he can buy his performance and sell it to the highest bidder. This is great for Heyward and good for the Cubs.
If the market is not great or Heyward’s performance remains good but underappreciated, he may or may not exercise the option. This is not great for Heyward and probably not great for the Cubs in general, but good with respect to the contract.
If the bubble completely bursts and nobody is getting paid and/or Heyward’s performance falls off a cliff, he won’t exercise the option. This is good for Heyward financially, but not as a performer, so it can be really bad for the Cubs.
There you go, a similar profile to a covered call.
ceruleanQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-badly-do-the-cubs-need-a-starting-pitcher/
Interesting article, though I’d hope there’s no real concern about Arrieta’s arm. My guess would be that the Cubs are thinking of who else could sit at the top of the rotation with Lester after 2017, when Arrieta presumably gets a truckload of money. That or they think Hammel won’t bounce back.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
At that point I guess they trade for someone and hope Pierce Johnson and/or Duane Underwood don’t suck.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I could see Johnson make his big league debut in 2016, but I think a lot would have to go wrong with the rotation to see Underwood next year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hope? What is this hope? Superfriends seem to be leaving nothing to the fates this year. If they don’t trade for someone now, if Hammel or Hendricks blows I’ll expect a deadline trade for someone in MLB who isn’t blowing.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Is there one of these for Zobrist btw?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Of PFF’s top performer’s drafted/signed after Day 2…
I had him as top 50 guy, IIRC. Liked him for CHI.
RynoQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
There are only so many prospects in the system even with such depth, they kind of have to hope that some of their pitching pans out. That’s all I meant.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The latest RYNO projections are out. Their prediction for the Cubs this season is
RynoQuote Reply
Jason Heyward press conference at 3:30 ET
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Ryno, thoughts on Goldman?
MuckerQuote Reply
Perkins,
It parallels the Battle of Midway in that the Cubs have succeeded largely due to superior intelligence, just as the U.S. Navy did.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I think that their desire to trade for a young but established starter indicates a lack of confidence in their pitching prospects. (Wanting to ensure that neither Hendricks nor Hammel start a playoff game might be a factor as well.)
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave,
Well, the superior intelligence has put them in the position to succeed. Having nearly every move hit is like the Japanese scout plane’s late takeoff and radio malfunction after finding the American fleet, along with the American dive bomber squadron’s finding the Japanese carrier group at the exact moment the Japanese planes were on the decks refueling and rearming.
In this scenario, the Cardinals appear to be the Japanese navy. (dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
So have we sunk the Yamato yet?
I’m not so worried about luck running out. If luck wasn’t random, the Cards would have finished last every season after 2006.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I put together a neat little table of all transactions that the Superfriends have made
(see: https://goo.gl/ZkVwMZ) which takes into account player salary and fWAR 2-3 years post transaction date. You’ll see that the only* player that has done well on his same contract since being released/traded by Theo was Cashner.
* mostly this is due to singing a lot of one year deals, trading players on their walk year, etc. I didn’t bother going into seeing when a player is on a contract year, so you’ll have to do that on your own if you’re really interested
** I took single season WARs from fangraphs, grabbed player salaries from USATODAY, and transaction data from BRef.
sharpchicityQuote Reply
uncle dave,
To be totally pedantic (history major), the Yamato wasn’t sunk until 1945.
However, signing Lackey and Heyward could be analogous to the attacks on Akagi and Kaga. (dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
I wish I hadn’t seen this. I turned MLB Network on and they’re arguing about whether or not he’s worth what he’s paid. These are the same morons who somehow managed to argue correctly that defense was undervalued years ago and now they’re arguing the player is overpaid because of his defense. It’s fucking ridiculous. Two other teams offered Heyward more money. If someone wants to talk about whether or not he’s worth the two opt-outs, well, that’s a much bigger grey area. It’s not an argument I’m the least bit interested in since we have no damn clue how much the opt-out is worth. All we know is that Jason Heyward chose a few million less because he had the chance to opt out. Would he have signed with the Cubs, opt-outs included, if the Cubs bid the same as the Cardinals? I highly doubt it. I’m fairly sure Thoyer tried that and he said no. It’s not like they just threw the options in or that GM’s just throw no-trades in. It’s a negotiation and you have to give to get.
dmick89Quote Reply
Nice of MLB Network to show only a few minutes of the press conference. Why not just show it all?
dmick89Quote Reply
Because the takez are 2 hott.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Heyward’s contract:
$20M signing bonus deferred to ’24–’27 in $5M installments. $15M this year and about $21M a year thereafter.
Nice job, Jeo and Thed.
ceruleanQuote Reply
In other words, those options saved quite a bit of money in the near term, which is why one would choose to sell an option. Flexibility can have enormous value. The flexibility of this contract gives the Cubs the best chance to augment the team further. And the future liability is not very onerous. I dig it.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Just gets better and better.
uncle daveQuote Reply
cerulean,
Nice. That drops payroll to about $150-153 million.
dmick89Quote Reply
So that basically means this is a 3-year, $77 million contract? Fuck yeah.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Mucker,
Before the draft, I thought he was a 2-down run stuffer. He’s stout in that area and he flashed quickness, but I thought he was too one-dimensional to be anything but a rotational player.
I’ve seen less than 20 snaps from the bears defense this season, but PFF seems to think his run D has translated and his pass rushing has improved.
So he’s the NT/1T? Fangio typically one-gaps his NT, which lets them produce more on passing downs than traditional NTs. Sounds like he’s a good fit there.
RynoQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
I counted $78MM but I agree that it is very nice. It’s technically front-loaded, but with creative accounting to make breathing room. Cubs FO are wizards.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ryno,
From what I’ve seen, he is mostly one gap. I like him a lot but I feel he needs to get stronger. I’ve seen him make some monster plays and just abuse his guy but I’ve also seen him get pushed 4 yards off the line and thrown on his ass. He has been extremely disruptive at times and the past 4 or 5 weeks, he’s been playing extremely well I think. He has 4.5 sacks from the NT position so he can rush the passer. He’s a rookie so he has a lot to learn but I think he’s had a great rookie season so far.
MuckerQuote Reply
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/12/16/speculation-emerges-of-a-49ers-sale/
Please. Lord.
RynoQuote Reply
Mucker,
See, that’s what I saw on film at FSU. Mario Edwards too. Both looked like Day 3 picks at best on like 80 percent of plays (not even mediocre, but BAD), but top 5 picks on the other 20 percent. Goldman was more consistent than Edwards, though.
CHI seems to have the makings of a really good defense. I’m about to start scouting players, so let me know areas of need and I’ll let you know who fits.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Well I’m hoping the Bears are serious players for Mo Wilkerson if he hits free agency. The ILB position is atrocious so I would like to see an upgrade at both spots. Need more pass rushers so another edge player would be nice. Amos looks to be a pretty solid FS but they need a SS and upgrade at CB because Porter is only on a one year deal I think and Fuller is awful. So basically they need everything. (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
$78m but 20m is deferred for 8 years, making it worth way less than $78m. if he was truly getting $200m offers, i’m really surprised that heyward agreed to this (from strictly a financial standpoint) unless the other offers were extremely backloaded.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
So only the 2nd opt-out is triggered with the number of plate appearances. That makes sense.
dmick89Quote Reply
Shutcho mouth. We need him in SF more.
There are some special ILBs in this draft. Jaylon Smith, especially, would be an ideal fit in SF and CHI. Jack looks really good too.
Jalen Ramsey is a guy to keep an eye on. Looks like an elite option at S and a very good CB at least.
Forget about FS/SS. Fangio and Donatell loved to disguise coverage in SF. Lots of zone/pattern matching with 0-4 deep using the same pre-snap look. So you basically need two guys who can play both safety positions.
RynoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Given that Theo has said all of the free agents they signed so far have taken less to play with the Cubs, maybe it has more to do with liking his chances of winning a World Series ring with the Cubs more than with the Cardinals or Natinals.
And even just saying/thinking that without a hint of snark just made my day.
PerkinsQuote Reply
3/78, 4/98, or 8/184. Those are the options. If it’s 3/78, that means he thinks he’s worth more than 5/106 on the open market (which is extremely likely if he just continues his current level). I basically consider this just a 3/$78 deal, which I’ll take any day of the week.
mylesQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-as-the-best-team-in-baseball/
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Seems the Dodgers and the Pale Hose are nearing a deal that might be Puig-ish.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
This is a Cubs blog, we Sink the Bismarck ’round these parts.
berseliusQuote Reply
Never mind, it’s a three-way…
Frazier —————> White Sox
Dodgers, Reds <——————— various prospects
Reds ————–> Scorched Earth
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
That’s an article I recently enjoyed.
dmick89Quote Reply
https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/677177938744217600
(dying laughing) Reds
Be all the more amusing when they field a replacement-level team and somehow beat the Cubs 10 times next year.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Remember that time CIN scored in 2 innings of a 3-game series against CHI and won 2 of the 3 games?
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
No, but it seems very plausible.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
It’s going to be tough for them to top starting something like 65 straight rookie SPs last year.
berseliusQuote Reply
Ryno,
I recall you and I being pissed about that. It was also around that time you started to distance yourself from the Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Was that during the 2004 season when that happened?
dmick89Quote Reply
Man, this deal does not look good for the Reds. Frazier was one of the few attractive pieces they have, especially with Chapman going full toxic. Might as well have kept him and waited.
A good example of why I typically don’t like rebuilding this way. A few more deals like this one and Reds’ fans can safely tune out until next decade.
Otoh, maybe Jocketty knows something the rest of us don’t with these players.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
dmick89,
I’m pretty sure. That was definitely the beginning of the end for me.
RynoQuote Reply
So the Cubs 40-man is at 40 now. They could still release a player if needed, but that seems to be a fairly strong indication they’re done with signing free agents at this point. Not that it’s surprising. I’m not sure any of us expected anything else in free agency. They could also trade a couple on the 40-man for someone like Carrasco, which would open a spot.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno,
So how are you feeling about the Cubs now that they’re really good and run by competent people? Has it changed your mind at all?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Somehow I don’t think the likes of Eric Jokisch and Andury Acevedo are blocking the Cubs from making any moves.
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
My ears are perked up, but I know better than to jump back in. I expect them to have a bunch of injuries or make the playoffs and get swept by SF or LAD in the first round.
RynoQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, I’m of a mind they’re done outside of super minor tinkering. If something else big happens, it’ll happen late.
Not a bad place to land. While I wouldn’t mind dealing one of Soler/Baez for a potential TOR pitcher, I’m more than content to see if Soler can take that big step forward after a meh ’15. Cubs are a little lefty-heavy anyway.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Yeah, there are at least a few guys on there that really serve no purpose. I’m kind of surprised Alcantara wasn’t outrighted after his terrible season.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno,
(dying laughing) Wilkerson is going to have a lot of suitors.
The current ILBs are incapable of filling a gap and making a stop. They tend to wait for the runner to get about 4 yards before they decide to do anything. I can’t believe Fangio likes his ILBs not reading run and shooting the gaps. Or does he? I like Smith a lot. I’m hoping the Bears can sign one ILB and draft another.
That’s interesting about the safeties roles in this defense.
Didn’t the 49ers draft Armstead? How’s he looking? I liked him a lot. And I really liked Henry Anderson. He was having a really good season before he got injured.
MuckerQuote Reply
I’ve been thinking more about the Cubs’ push for relievers this offseason, specifically having (potentially) four swing arms in the bullpen (Wood, Cahill, Richard, and Warren). Given Maddon’s love of matchups and the relative efficacy of “bullpen game” as the Cubs’ #3 starter down the stretch this year, maybe having that many long relievers is exploiting an inefficiency (or at least building an insurance policy based on Maddon’s personality).
Assuming one of Arrieta or Lester misses significant time, the gap in WAR would be tough to fill. However, having 3-4 pitchers who can be used for a turn through the order based on matchups and pinch-hit for could close the gap on that somewhat. You’re not going to replace an Arrieta or a Lester, but you can improve your odds of winning games by exploiting the reliever advantage of only facing the order one time, as well as being able to pinch hit for the pitcher every time he comes to the plate. And if there’s any manager in the game I’d trust to employ that strategy, it would definitely be Joe Maddon.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I agree. I’m pretty excited where the Cubs roster is currently at. I think they should wait to trade Soler. I thought he was outstanding in the playoffs and if he’s finally getting the bat back on track and he continues to mash like that in the first half, then the Cubs will be sitting in the driver seat.
MuckerQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I still think that they’ll add a right-handed CF to the mix, maybe someone like Rajai Davis. And maybe they trade for another arm, but only if the price is right.
mobile daveQuote Reply
are you saying that i jumped the gun by buying that andury acevedo jersey?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
He offers more defensive flexibility than Szczur and has more power. I think it’s at least worth seeing if he finds his stroke in ST and the minors.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
And Grichuk downed by sports hernia surgery. Probably be ready by ST, but still…
Apparently the baseball gods do not take too kindly to those who hack Mission Control.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
berselius,
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
(dying laughing)
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
berselius,
(dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
berselius,
Wow (dying laughing)
(And they still win 100 games.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Yeah, until I see Cardinal Magic to miss the 2016 season, I assume they’re going to find some ridiculous way to win 100 games.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Maybe the clock struck midnight on Cardinals Devil Magic.
PerkinsQuote Reply
mobile dave,
Glad to see you have the use of your legs back.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Mucker,
He will, and CHI makes a lot of sense for a 5T.
In SF, Fangio mixed gap assignments along the DL, but the ILBs read typical keys. I think the difference is that his ILB corps went from Pat Willis and Novorro Bowman to whomever CHI is rolling out. (dying laughing)
Yeah, the safeties have to be the same, but they’re typically those who would be cast as SS. I don’t know how much of that was SF’s GM, though.
I admit I was apathetic about the Armstead pick. I wasn’t a big fan of him, but I also didn’t like the talent available when they picked. He’s played pretty well this season, but that’s a major dropoff from Justin Smith.
RynoQuote Reply
Here’s how the Cubs’ offseason has gone in gif form
Suburban kidQuote Reply
False
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Ryno,
The Bears ILBs are hot garbage.
I feel the Bears safeties have been decent this year. They’ve lost both Mundy and Rolle to injuries so they’ve been using a rotation of players. Would like to see that solidified this offseason though.
Justin Smith was a beast. HoF? What do you think of Watt? I think he’s one of the best defense players I’ve ever seen.
MuckerQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
That’s a video you’re trying to embed as an image.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/price-heyward-cueto-greinke-opt-out-cubs-dodgers-trade-rumors-free-agency-ken-rosenthal-121515
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2015/12/15/levine-cubs-payroll-is-at-an-all-time-high/
dmick89Quote Reply
This is kind of surprising. I expected the Cubs would add a right-handed hitting CF to the roster, but that could also be Javier Baez.
dmick89Quote Reply
Mucker,
Exactly. Jaylon Smith makes SO much sense there.
Amos has been good for them, and I could see them draft a S like Cash or Killebrew.
Watt ranks right up there with elite defenders that transformed the game. I’m talking Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor and Deion Sanders.
RynoQuote Reply
Yeah, well, a video is a kind of image, man
Suburban kidQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
And right on cue…
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
What’s Jaylon Smith’s grade….mid to late 1st?
I agree. It’s unreal what he’s accomplishing. And he’s so versatile he can line up anywhere on the front. It’s awesome to watch. I’d like to see Clowney get a little more involved. He’s starting to play better and get his feel back but he should be able to clean up with Watt getting so much attention.
MuckerQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
It don’t get any easier as you get older.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Those moving pictures are a miracle.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Fixed.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Schwarber plus a top ten system prospect for Carrasco.
Soler or Baez plus a top ten and a top twenty system prospect for Carrasco.
Would the Indians take one of these deals? Should the Cubs offer one of these deals?
I think all three are likely overpays, but not offers Cleveland simply can’t refuse, not in this market. (Thanks D-bags.) Carrasco has 3 more years for $19M and up to 5 years of control for $40M-ish (may be more with Cy Young votes—how much?—no clue).
I was going to suggest some trades for Fernandez, but there is no deal for him that does not start at Bryant or Russell or Rizzo plus. Not yet anyway. And that’s not worth it.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
No to the first one. Schwarber for Carrasco plus an Indians top 10 prospect. As much as I’d love to watch Schwarber hit home runs at Wrigley, trading him isn’t the craziest idea since it seems he’s just a left fielder now. But I’m not trading him and a prospect for Carrasco. I’d want a prospect in return. Schwarber is worth way more than Carrasco is. The same isn’t necessarily true of Soler or Baez so one of them plus a prospect makes sense. Carrasco probably has more expected surplus value over the remaining years of their respective contracts than Soler or Baez.
I’d much rather just go with Soler plus a prospect because trading Schwarber opens another hole and I’m not sure there’s time to properly fill that spot.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I think the Indians must be asking for the moon. If Soler and a good prospect could bring Carrasco, I think Carrasco would be a Cub. So they are probably asking for Schwarber with that prospect or asking for another good prospect. I imagine they would argue that Schwarber is “just a DH”. (I don’t think Schwarber gets traded.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
If that’s what they’re asking, it’s time to move forward with the team as is unless there’s a free agent that makes sense.
dmick89Quote Reply
Mucker,
Jaylon is the top LB prospect that I can think of over the last few years, but positional value drops him a bit. It’s way early and I haven’t done any scouting of anyone, but my guess at this point is the 10-15 range.
Adding Clowney is huge for HOU’s defense. They’re a QB away (aren’t most teams?) from being pretty durn good.
RynoQuote Reply
I was thinking about this. Assume Schwarber is off the table, because he probably is. Also, assume Cleveland is looking for MLB ready or near MLB ready prospects. That’s the priority of most teams and I think we fans forget that at times. We think we can just sub in prospects, but the opposing teams are often wanting MLB ready prospects. Let’s also assume that Soler is one of the players in a trade the Cubs want to complete with Cleveland for Carrasco. What MLB ready prospects do the Cubs have that could be included in the deal? Almora and McKinney are fairly close, but neither are huge upside guys.
This is why I’ve never thought the Cubs and Marlins were a good fit for Fernandez. The Cubs have a ton of young talent, but most of them aren’t going to be traded. I’m not as sold as a lot of people that the Cubs farm system is still in great shape. I see some interesting players, but they have next to no pitching and their best prospects aren’t projected to be impact players. So realistically, who could the Cubs send the Marlins to get them interested? I just don’t see it unless the deal starts with Schwarber or Bryant. And that’s not going to happen.
Brendan Ryan has now been added to the roster with Yoervis Medina being DFA’d. I’m hoping the Cubs don’t see Baez as more expandable now that they have Ryan.
dmick89Quote Reply
Re: John Baker,
I just can’t get overly attached to a player who had a wRC+ of 41. No matter how good his guitar playing is.
MillertimeQuote Reply
He seems like a good guy and all, and smart too, but yeah, his Cubs career was not the stuff of legends.
Killer HoganQuote Reply
Millertime,
he’s penned some pretty interesting/insightful articles, and by all accounts (that i’ve come across), he is supposedly a pretty decent human being. not sure what “baseball operations assistant” means but as long as he’s not a hitting coach or something, i say welcome aboard.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
“In his new role with the organization, Baker will contribute to all elements within the club’s baseball operations department, including player development and scouting with an eye towards catching and mental skills. He will visit the club’s affiliates to work with the minor league players on and off the field, evaluate amateur players leading up to the draft, and spend time around the major league club among additional responsibilities and opportunities.”
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Sounds like a rotating internship, like when a newly minted MBA gets shunted around all the departments of the investment bank.
Gladys ZybyskoQuote Reply
If nothing else, hopefully this might inspire David Ross to do the same thing. I love having the guy in the dugout, not so much in the batters box.
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
If Ryan gets ABs for this team I’ll…not be thrilled, I guess.
It may be the case that Soler and a prospect or two could bring back Carrasco, but both Cleveland and the Cubs are rolling the dice on the market breaking in their direction before making another move. For the Cubs, you have to hope that the recent spate of signings and number of teams looking to fill pitching holes have driven prices up, and that will fade as teams start to make more moves. And if you’re Cleveland, you have to hold off and see if someone will be stupid and go above market. I don’t think either precludes a move later on.
I’m holding out hope that the Cubs will make a move during a relative lull in the market (say, April) and use that to their advantage. I’m content to head into the season with what we got, though.
uncle daveQuote Reply
berselius,
I feel like it’s about even money that Ross winds up in the org as a coach within the next two years.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Yeah, he’s got to be fairly low on the depth chart, I’d think. I’m not that high on Alcantara anymore, but I’d rather see what he could do in a utility role than Ryan. The Cubs are pretty smart so I’m not too worried.
There’s no risk for either of them doing that at this point so you’re probably right. I’d think mid-January is when we might see some more action as far as teams matching up with the Cubs and Soler. I still think Heyward plays RF for the most part next year.
dmick89Quote Reply
The problem with dealing Soler now is that his value could triple with just 2-3 months of great performance. A lot of people can see the potential. He’s shown flashes of huge power, plate discipline, and defense.
And on the flip side, if he sits at a .240/.280./.390 line after 2-3 months, his value won’t take a huge hit from where it is now.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I disagree with this notion. Being a great player does not require being a great communicator. Being a great teacher requires less mastery of execution than recognition, understanding, and interpretation. It’s skills vs meta-skills. By this logic, it follows that the greatest coaches in the game would have been merely decent players, if they played at all—and that seems to match reality.
Joe Maddon approves this message. So will the first female coach in baseball.
ceruleanQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
I’m fine if they keep Soler, but I’m not sure his value will be the same if he hits that poorly over the first half. For one thing, i think everyone can agree at this point that he’s shown a lot of potential so far with the bat, but things just haven’t worked out. If he continues to hit so poorly, I’m not sure as many people are still going to see the potential. That would have to be re-evaluated and if his batting line is that bad, it’s unlikely the same signs that pointed toward bright future would be present this time around. His trade value would plummet even more.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
JonKneeV,
I think both of you are right, but one is arguing in absolute terms (JKV) and the other in relative terms (DM).
ceruleanQuote Reply
What are you doing here? Cubs Christmas came early jabronis.
Grinchy McGrinchersonQuote Reply
Clown comment of the day goes to Nick Cafardo on the Jason Heyward contract:
(dying laughing), only if he regresses, Nick…
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
A lot of people in the media have asked that question. I swear, after this signing it’s like the media thought it was 2005 again and forgot all that they had learned over the last decade.
It also reminded me why I stopped reading this asshats.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
What’s most amusing is how that bit of Luddism came at the tail end of a positive piece about the Red Sox being at the cutting edge of player evaluation, bringing in risk management firms to help them make better decisions.
All well and good, but then: derp derp, Jason Heyward’s R+RBI is too low for 23MM per year.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
Odell Beckham = bitch
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Ya, that was scary. What’s worse – he’ll probably only get a fine or a 1 game suspension. But if he was throwing punches he would get suspended 2-3 games.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
It looked like he did throw a “punch” at one point.
But…
RynoQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
If that had happened in a college game, he would have been ejected for targeting.
RynoQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
Look at this guy trying to sneak a name in there…
RynoQuote Reply
Quick look at his projected value and I get $282.75 million over 8 years starting at 4.8 WAR in 2016.
2016: 4.8
2017: 4.8
2018: 4.3
2019: 3.8
2020: 3.3
2021: 2.8
2022: 2.3
2023: 1.8
Win value starts at 8 and increases by 0.5 million each year.
There are a lot of ways in which Heyward may ultimately not live up to this contract, but teams don’t get to have the luxury of paying for value after the fact. Getting Heyward for what the Cubs did over 8 years is a steal, even including the opt-outs.
Or to put it more simple terms for those morons who require that, there were two teams that offered Heyward more money than the Cubs so, well, obviously it’s not an overpay.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m ready for the season start. Can’t wait to watch this team kick some ass.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
The Cubs matrix has you.
RynoQuote Reply
idc 4 mvp
berseliusQuote Reply
MB, clearly you don’t understand how market forces work. It’s an overpay if we take the contract and send it in a time machine back to 1979, which is how all contracts must be judged.
berseliusQuote Reply
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25420683/mike-matheny-bothered-by-jason-heywards-cardinals-comments
????????????????????????????????????????????
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
idc > his No. 5 QB
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Speaking of that team, one of my in-laws spotted this in the DC area last week
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
(dying laughing). That’s awesome.
RynoQuote Reply
When I saw this yesterday I was about to start writing up something about it, but between having a Christmas dinner here with family yesterday and laughing too hard, I just didn’t have the time. I’ve got a lot of respect for the Cardinals organization, but it’s laughable that their core is in any way comparable to the Cubs core talent. I am relatively certain the Cardinals will figure out some magical way to change that within a couple years, but as of right now, it’s not even up for debate.
If the Cubs and Cardinals execs were to hold a debate over which team’s core talent was better, I’d hope that Theo would just drop the mic for his opening remarks.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
To be totally fair mb you have to remember that Grichuk and Piscotty split the ROY vote, which propelled Bryant to the award.
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
And a response from Long Live the Spanglish Avians. As a clarification, it’s not that the Cards are old—it’s that the Cubs are especially young and talented.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius,
Don’t be silly—it’s that they didn’t play the whole season. It’s easy to rack up a bunch of WAR with 650 plate appearances.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
He uses average age as a way to determine the age of the “core”. He does use other metrics, but using average age is extremely misleading. For example, David Ross & Fernando Rodney are almost twice the age of Addison Russell.
The better model would have been to use median age.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
To be fair, neither of those ways say much about the age clusters that may or may not exist. A weighted average by PA or IP and expected WAR would be better.
The second graph shows expected WAR contributions from those younger than prime years—though he defines that cutoff as being younger than Heyward, so neither Rizzo nor Heyward gets in*. Go ahead and add another 10 WAR to that already gaudy bar for the Cubs’ position players.
The point that I think is easy to miss by comparing the Cards to the Cubs in a vacuum: the Cards look pretty good compared to the rest of the league. The Cubs are just amazing.
*EDIT: I think he might be counting one of them after all.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Apparently the Cardinals can only take so much of this shit from the Cubs, will flex their financial might to sign…
Mike Leake.
And possibly to five years.
(dying laughing)
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
He did accumulate 9.1 bWAR last year…
…for his career.
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
They look even better when you compare them to the Brewers and Reds.
And at the rate they’re going this offseason, they’re a Mike Leake-esque signing or two away from looking at a spot at the kids’ table come Opening Day.
(I know. I’ve become obnoxiously confident. Usually I’m just obnoxious.)
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Cardinals are about to take a Leake.
Can I get odds on a Mike Leake Cy Young award in 2016?
RynoQuote Reply
About as strong as you for Cy Young.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
The Cardinals will be a good team next year, but they’re not nearly as good as the Cubs at this point. The Pirates have done even less than the Cardinals. It’s like both of those teams decided to drop 10 wins and see if they could still get in the playoffs. People talk about the NL Central as being a great division, which it was last year, but I don’t think it’s all that good at this point anyway. You’ve got the Cubs who are very good followed by 2 good teams in the Cardinals and Pirates, but neither of them strikes me as 90 win teams. The NL West is the best division in the National League. I don’t even think it’s close.
Really weird that the Pirates and Cardinals seem to be punting on this offseason. Well, at least the Cardinals tried, I guess.
dmick89Quote Reply
5 years with an option and no-trade clause for Mike Fucking Leake.
dmick89Quote Reply
Mike Leake is getting $15 million a year and people in the media are wondering whether or not Jason Heyward is worth $23 million a year? (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Don’t tell me how strong I am.
RynoQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
Wow. Maybe front offices still don’t value OBP and defense.
uncle daveQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
berselius,
I had forgotten about that. What an asshole.
RynoQuote Reply
I think they value it, but I think they’re untrusting of the metrics, which they probably should be to some extent. Still, everybody would agree Heyward is a great defender and there’s a lot of value there. It’s strange.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wish I knew how to quit you.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
5/80? NTC? For LEAKE?
Unreal.
Still some ways to go, but so far, can’t imagine a better offseason for the Cubs. What a waste of money.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
The option is a mutual option.
That never really makes much sense to me. Either the team wants to exercise an option because the player’s value is greater than the cost or the player exercises the option because the option is greater than his value. Once is a blue moon would a player’s value = cost in both the team & player’s mind.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I hate when people say shit like this. Like your odds go up on a later round pick at QB if you “sit and develop” them.
Seven of this year’s Top 10 in AdjustedNetYards/Attempt are top 35 picks. Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Tyrod Taylor are the others. Seven of last year’s Top 10 were too.
There’s nothing wrong with bringing in late round or undrafted QBs for depth (and you might even hit on one eventually). But if you’re looking for a starting QB (even if you are looking down the road), you draft him in the first round.
RynoQuote Reply
For even more fun, head over to VEB to see how the BFIB are trying to talk themselves into this being a good deal. Those without the blinders on are taking some heat for stating the obvious, that being a few more Leakes when your chief rival is bringing in Heywards and you can pretty much close the book on 2016 before it even starts.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2015/12/22/10644786/mike-leake-reportedly-close-to-signing-with-st-louis-cardinals
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
It will give the Cardinals a good idea of whether or not Leake would accept an arbitration offer, but for the most part, it’s just a 5-year deal with the stipulation if they both love each other, there will be a 6th year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fortunately with that option, it will be less than $15M AAV. Bravo, Cards, bravo!
Anybody else get the feeling that they are the kid at the dance that nobody wants to dance with.
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
So I get 5/61 for Leake using Steamer’s 2.0 WAR and beginning with $8 million per win and increasing by 0.5 million each year. Also, I kept his WAR at 2.0 in 2017 and reduced by 0.5 after that.
Realistically though, I don’t think you should be signing any player to a deal beyond a year in which he is projected to be worth less than 1 WAR. So 4 years and $56 million is about right, but nothing much more than that.
5/80 is a huge overpay. Are Cardinals fans saying otherwise or something?
If you decrease his WAR by 0.5 from the start, which is probably the right thing to do, you get 4 years and $42.5 million. Factor in the no-trade clause and the Cardinals probably should not have paid more than $38.5 million over 4 years for Mike Leake.
dmick89Quote Reply
The small but vocal contingent at VEB seem to be split. Some are rightly bemoaning it as largely a waste of resources, others are pretzeling themselves as best they can to see it as a modestly good decision.
Of the latter, even Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs gave it a go. I don’t think he succeeded.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-to-justify-the-cardinals-mike-leake-contract/
Even the most awesome of organizations aren’t immune from getting rattled, especially those not used to having division rivals take valuable things from them. This was something of a panic move. I don’t think the Cardinals actually thought the Cubs would make the moves they did; they certainly didn’t think they’d be along this far and not have hardly anything to show for it.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I want to like comments not make them dammit.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Thinking right now there won’t be a 2015 repeat in ’16 with the NL Central being most of the National League playoffs.
Pirates have largely run in place. The Cardinals strapped their offseason rocket on backwards. Hard to believe it’s the Cubs going for the throat for once… and then actually getting it.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Pirates have taken a step back too. Cardinals have taken a few steps back. It’s fun to be a cubs fan right now.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Am I allowed to post gifs?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So… lurking around the Redbird interwebs has yielded those who like this signing think Mike Leake’s totally badass offensive career wRC+ of 45 will totally make this deal super worth it.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
You should be able to. Let me know.
dmick89Quote Reply
Oh good, because this offseason was…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yeah, we wouldn’t want to make it appear as though firing Harbaugh might have been stupid. So let’s make another stupid decision to mask it.
RynoQuote Reply
Write one yourself.
Grinchy McGrinchersonQuote Reply
Ryno,
Why did they force Harbaugh out?
MuckerQuote Reply
Ryno,
If the Trib owned the team, it would be a great time to be a guy named Jake Harbaugh.
berseliusQuote Reply
Mucker,
There was speculation that he was difficult to deal with. As opposed to other successful coaches that were easier to get along with and manage like Parcells, Jimmy Johnson, et al.
I honestly have no idea, though, as the only thing that makes sense is that the ownership was tired of all the winning.
RynoQuote Reply
berselius,
Marty Schottenheimer seems like a Trib coach. Likely to get 9-11 wins and nothing more.
RynoQuote Reply
Of course today, the report is that GM Trent Baalke has been coaching up the DBs in practice. So maybe the GM wants to be GM/Coach.
RynoQuote Reply
Word is the Cards are talking to the Rox about their overrated, overpriced OFs.
Any one of Blackmon, Cargo, and Dickerson aren’t likely to be very good away from Coors. Any one of the three will be expensive to acquire.
Can only hope the Cards pull it off.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Ryno,
The egos in the NFL are unbelievable. This guy Baalke sounds like a douchebag.
MuckerQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I figure Cargo would end up winning 2 MVP’s with the Cardinals and hit 87 home runs the next two years. I’d like it if the Cardinals just stopped doing anything this offseason to be honest.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs signed Brandon Gomes to a minor league deal. He’s kind of a shitty pitcher, but you’ve got to fill out the spring training roster somehow.
dmick89Quote Reply
They could get Brian Schottenheimer and sell him as a fresh, young face.
berseliusQuote Reply
They identified former Rockies OFs as a market inefficiency when they signed Larry Walker.
berseliusQuote Reply
Brendan Ryan was thankfully released.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
One would think that, except Cargo’s not very good at this stage of his career, his blistering Coors-fueled second half 2015 aside. And as much as the Cardinals have a rep for getting magical seasons out of players, it’s really that they typically acquire good players and continue to get good seasons out of them.
Gonzalez would not be that and he’d require a ton of prospect depth to get. I hope the Cards do get him. He scares me not at all.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
He’s a considerable drop-off in talent from Heyward defensively, but offensively I think it’s a wash. I think Cargo is better than you’re giving him credit for. They could also afford to give up some minor league talent considering the draft picks coming their way. There’s not a whole lot the Cardinals can do at this point to be favorites in the NL Central, but I don’t think the Cubs run away with the division.
Also, I want the Cardinals to be good. I want them to be very good. I want a Cardinals/Cubs rivalry that matters. My entire life it’s been a rivalry in name only. It’s like the Iowa State fans that want to call the Iowa/Iowa State football games rivalry games.
I want more Cubs/Cardinals games in September that matter for both teams and I want more series between them in the playoffs.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m not sure how. He’s 30. He’s not durable. He’s a league average hitter away from Coors Field. He’s a liability defensively. He can’t hit lefties. I see him going forward (assuming he gets dealt somewhere) as roughly a 2.0 fWAR player and that’s if he stays on the field for 150 games again, which he mostly likely won’t. It’s a shame because there was a time where he looked to be on his way to ranks of the elite, but injuries got him during his peak, and they’ll likely claim a good chunk of his decline too, which could end up being precipitous, especially once he can’t count on Coors to inflate his stats every year.
He’s due 17MM next year and 20MM the year after. If the Rox chow down on some cash for better prospects, maybe he’ll be a decent value for the salary for somebody, but if the Cardinals make the move, this is not one that makes them better at all, I don’t think.
I’m sure we’ll get that, even if the Cardinals are not what they once were for a year or two. They’ll reload. And as much as I’m enjoying what’s happened to them the past 3 months, and as much as I feel they’ve fallen off talent-wise, I still expect them to be in the mix for 85-90 wins. Maybe the Cubs blow past 90 again and cruise, but more than likely they’ll have some unexpected regression, injuries, etc, and it will still end up a battle—and with the Pirates too.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Actually, the more I think about, the more I’d rather not have a Cubs/Cardinals rivalry that matters. I’d rather the Cardinals be mired in mediocrity for a decade or so, looking up at the Cubs, wondering year after year how they, the greatest, most morally superior organization of them all, lost the magic.
We can rival it with somebody else. Pirates are fine. So are the Mets. Dodgers. Pick one. What I want is for Cardinals fans to be looking at Cub dominance from well down in the standings. I want to see the light leave their eyes.
Above all, I just want one fucking World Series win. I don’t care who we beat on the way to it or by how much. Just win one.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Yeah, I don’t care about Cardinals fans as much as the rest of you. Besides, I’m not going to live long enough to see the point where Cardinals fans aren’t still gloating about their success being greater than the Cubs. I’ve already accepted I’ll die before that happens and I care not one bit about it.
Agreed. My ideal WS championship would have been something like 2015 though. One of the best teams in baseball (arguably the best), beating the best teams in the playoffs one after another and finally winning it all. Only way winning a WS would be better than that is if the Cubs were the team to win the division.
dmick89Quote Reply
Beating the Cardinals in the playoffs was a hell of a lot more fun than making fun of Cardinals fans.
dmick89Quote Reply
I have good friends who are Cardinals fans. Arrogant as hell. Every bit believers in the inherent greatness and moral rectitude of the Cardinal org. One in particular used to laugh his ass off back in ’05 and ’06 when I would prattle on about how good the Cubs would be if PriorWood were healthy. He laughed his ass off again when I believed Hendry after he signed all the players prior to ’07— “We’re going to be good, and we’re going to stay good”—though even he was mildly surprised the 3 year window he grudgingly predicted ended up being only 2 (he also rightly predicted the Cubs would get swept out of the playoffs in ’07 and ’08). He (and the other) were especially nasty after 2011 when the Cards won the Series and the Cubs bottomed out. They said Theo would never pull it off in Chicago and was the most overrated GM in baseball. Over the last four years they liked to do this “tick tock” thing I can’t quite explain but was very irritating anytime I started talking hopefully about Cub progress. They said Bryant would strike out 150 times before the ASB and be back in AAA by September. They said Lester was severely overpaid and would break down. They said Arrieta was the proverbial blind squirrel finding ye olde proverbial nut in 2014 and would get torched all through 2015. I can go on (and I have already) but you get the picture. But more than anything else they said regardless whether the Cubs managed to get respectable, they’d still be waaaaaay behind the Cardinals, as always, no matter what.
And then October happened. And then this offseason happened. And, for the first time since I’ve known them, they’re not laughing at the Cubs anymore (they briefly tried to bring it all back after the Mets sweep, but it was obviously half-hearted; they were relieved more than anything else). In fact, more and more I see disappointment in their own team. I see frustration.
I like all that. I want more of it. I want Cardinal Nation in ashes. I want, decades from now, long after I’m gone, my kids’ kids to say to their friends, “Remember when the Cardinals were good?” And their friends say, “When was that?”
I know that’s horrible but I want it. I also world peace too, and in my mind that balances the other nastiness out.
(And ftr, those friends of mine are top notch people… just not during baseball season (dying laughing); but, to be fair, neither am I.)
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I say we can chew and walk gum at the same time. And that the former is actually enhanced by the latter. (dying laughing)
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Yeah, almost got it too. But I have to selfishly say that while I was disappointed they lost, I was secretly more okay with it than I should have been because I didn’t get to watch enough Cubs baseball in 2015, and I was getting kind of sad at the thought they’d finally do it the year I wasn’t able to get in front of a game as much.
2016 will be different, tho. But watch them be terrible somehow…
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Forget the just the Cardinals. In ten years, I want everyone in baseball hating the Cubs more than the Yankees and Red Sox and Giants and Cardinals combined—besting all of those teams in recent and historical success.
I want to have to apologize for the embarrassment of riches in the Rickettses’ trophy case. I want these Cubs teams to win so automatically that they stop caring and win anyway. I want people searching for reasons to despise the Cubs, looking back fondly on the stories of a century of futility, wrapped in the distant fog of memory.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I also wish to be associated with these sentiments. I love that the organization’s philosophy seems to be “we will kill you in your sleep on Christmas.” Seeing a front office that leaves nothing to chance and metaphorically punches its biggest rival in the throat in the process of improving the team…it’s just fucking magical.
I don’t want rivalry. I want to see the Cubs win 100 or more and embarrass the Cardinals when they play each other. And then I want to see them steamroll through the playoffs. Fuck excitement, and fuck close games. I want to see them win a World Series in the most dominant and boring way possible.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I would very much like this.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wouldn’t mind the Cubs bringing Austin Jackson back as a backup CF. They don’t really have anyone who can back Heyward up in CF unless Szczur makes the active roster.
dmick89Quote Reply
Happy Holidays everyone
dmick89Quote Reply
Averaged 2 WAR over the last 3 years… Durable… Has never stolen any shirts… Let’s see… that comes out to 5/$92 with a full no-trade clause.
GWQuote Reply
GW,
The Cardinals Way
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing), I forgot to add that part…
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Happy holidays, jabronis. I hope I love the Cubs even more than they will eventually be hated.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I can now finally say that game 6 of the 1985 World Series is no longer my favorite baseball memory.
Oh yes. I grew up in Cardinal country in the 80s. I will shed no fucking tears if they suck for a while.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I think that a right-handed batter who can slot into CF is about the last missing piece on this team. At home, you can probably slot Baez between Soler and Heyward against tougher lefties and get away with it. I’d hate to see that happen somewhere like Petco or PNC, though.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Also a reminder: Chris Coghlan is basically a fifth outfielder on this team.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I remain disappointed that the road to the WS did not go through Pittsburgh, St. Louis, New York, and Houston. In the words of Mike Tyson: “I want his heart! I’m going to eat his children!”
…Merry Christmas!
umbraQuote Reply
Yeah, two of my best memories are the Cubs beating the Cardinals in the NLDS this year and the Cubs taking 4 of 5 from the Cardinals in 2003. Cubs were 2.5 behind the first place Cardinals before that series. Cardinals were 72-65 and the Cubs were 69-66. After taking 4 of 5 at home the Cubs were a half game behind the Astros and a half game ahead of the Cardinals. The Cubs were in first place a few days later.
Yankees/Red Sox is what it is because they’ve been good at the same time many times. I want that in the Cubs/Cardinals rivalry. I’ll gladly take the Cubs winning the division by 20 games or whatever and making every other team look horrible, but I want the Cubs to beat the Cardinals in every postseason from now until I die. I want the Cubs to continually beat up on good Cardinals teams so they feel as though there’s nothing they can do about it.
dmick89Quote Reply
uncle dave,
Yeah, I figure right now Baez is the back-up for almost all the positions. He’s younger and more athletic than Zobrist so I’d rather see Baez in that super utility role than Zobrist.
dmick89Quote Reply
Me too. That would have been so cool to see.
dmick89Quote Reply
Apparently there are still an awful lot of stupid baseball teams. Glad the Cubs aren’t one of them.
dmick89Quote Reply
It seems Adam Warren was not nearly as excited as Jason Heyward to become a Cub:
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/adam-warren-learned-of-trade-to-chicago-cubs-watching-tv-on-vacation-122315
(dying laughing). Good grief, sweetheart, you’re married to a relief pitcher. Better get used to shuffling around organizations a bit.
Or, I dunno. Maybe news doesn’t travel as far as the Bronx, but someone should let her and her husband know the Cubs are good now, too. A lot better than the Yankees at that.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Maybe she was a Cardinals fan.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Just found this site the other day. Really good blog. Makes me wish I had been able to keep up with the analysis on here that we used to on ACB and here at OV.
http://www.cubsrelated.com/2015/12/kyle-hendricks-3rd-time-through-order.html?m=1
dmick89Quote Reply
That was a blog post I recently enjoyed (i.e. just now, thanks).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
dmick89,
Meh. Looks like SSS humbug to me. We know pitchers get worse the third time through the order (or, more accurately, hitters get better results against pitchers they’ve seen twice already). I don’t think there’s much to gain in looking at Hendricks’s results (<200 PA).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I mean, merry Christmas, everybody!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
And Christmas, have a merry one.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I wish he’d have stressed the small sample size more than he did, but he correctly points out that he’s more than likely not going to be as poor 3rd time through next year. It was a good article in my opinion and there are several like it there. Glad to see some good small-time Cubs blogs around. I miss those days.
dmick89Quote Reply
Merry Christmas, jabronis. Thoyer have played the part of Santa Claus quite well this year.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
dmick89Quote Reply
At least the Leake contract appears to be backloaded. The Cardinals spent less in present day value than they’d have otherwise, but it’s still a ridiculously stupid contract.
dmick89Quote Reply
Don’t tell me what to do.
berseliusQuote Reply
Any quick Chicago restaurant or gig rec’s?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
https://sports.vice.com/en_us/highlight/local-mentally-ill-man-owns-the-title-to-petco-park-and-nobody-knows-how-to-get-it-back/
GWQuote Reply
GW,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Oh great, baseball is in the news again for steroids.
dmick89Quote Reply
Thanks a lot, Peyton Manning!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dave Henderson passed away. I knew him more as an A’s player than for his Boston legend. RIP.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
RynoQuote Reply
You guys may have seen it posted elsewhere on social media, but a newly released documentary series on Netflix called Making a Murderer is great. If you like true crime, documentaries, and/or scandals, I’d recommend you pick it up.
It’s 10 episodes. Each episode is an hour. I don’t normally binge-watch TV, but I watched 5 episodes yesterday. It’s awesome.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
I watched the first episode the other day and really liked it. Haven’t had a chance to watch more yet.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno,
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Ryno,
THAT’S TOO MUCH TRUTH FOR THE INTERNET!
So is this real life?
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Chapman —————–> Yankees
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Very little of value ———————> Reds
And the one offseason worse than the Cardinals gets a little even more so.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
If anyone has the time for a new thread, I would find a Better Know a Cub: John Lackey interesting. Specifically the cause for his turnaround since he left the BoSox. I think we are all a little worried about some serious regression from him.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
How about an article where we reminisce about Brendan Ryan’s tenure as a Cub?
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Wenningtons Gorilla Cock,
I have very fond memories of it, to be honest. I couldn’t be happier with how his career in a Cubs uniform turned out. He sacrificed himself day in and day out for the good of the team. He’s a gritty warrior with the heart of a champion.
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV,
I briefly looked at this after the Cubs signed him and if I recall, he’s been fairly steady in his career. I think one big difference is that he’s now pitching in the lesser league while also facing lineups that still insist on pitchers hitting.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think the more important part of JKV’s suggestion was can we start a new thread already?
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Wenningtons Gorilla Cock,
I’ve had one half finished since yesterday, I should finish it tonight…
berseliusQuote Reply
uusi paska
http://obstructedview.net/nl-central-offseason-transaction-roundup/
berseliusQuote Reply