Matt Guerrier is a few people's favorite Cub. "How could this be possible?", you may ask. Well, his presence on the team means Carlos Marmol's presence isn't. That's a win for many people who just wanted Marmol and his $9.8 million contract out of Chicago. Honestly, I don't really mind if players are overpaid (I care only from the abstract payroll sense, and Marmol's contract has never been the difference between the Cubs being competitive or not), but I can't deny there was a stigma surround him. However he's not on the 40-man roster. Matt Guerrier is.
Pedigree
Matt Guerrier was drafted in 1999 by the White Sox. He was a 10th round selection of out Kent State University. He started as a reliever, but found some success in 2001 as a starter for AA-AAA. He was traded to the Pirates in 2002 for Damaso Marte and Edwin Yan, and he did not do well there in AAA. He had an ERA of 4.59 and 4.53, respectively, and was waived where he was claimed by the Minnesota Twins. He did better as a starter there in 2004, with a 3.19 ERA as 25-year old. He had a cup of coffee in their bullpen; after that, he broke with the camp for (essentially) good. He was a very good reliever from 2005 to 2010, but has sputtered since signing a 3 yr/$12 million contract with LA (1.5/4.75/4.75).
Pitch Selection
It's hard to get a handle on Guerrier's pitch selection. Pitch F/X freaks out and claims Guerrier dropped his slider in 2011 (which he used 40% of the time) for a cutter…but they are essentially the same pitch, thrown 83-90 with some y break and little x break. It doesn't move very much for a typical slider/cutter, but he also throws it to contact more often than the average guy. He throws a fastball 45% or so, and it moves around 90 mph (touches 93). Funnily enough, it's his better pitch the past two years, and his "out" pitch, as it were. It does a decent job of handcuffing righties. He also offers a curve that comes in at 78 and runs 10 to 4; it'd be a real weapon as a change of plane pitch if he had any handle on it, but he doesn't.
Stuff
It should really be more like "Stuff." Guerrier doesn't have any; he has a 6 K/9 percentage, which is bad. 15.9 K%, 7.8 BB% just aren't great numbers. It's added up to a 4.34 FIP (which he's generally always beaten: career ERA is 3.53). "Luckily" for Matt, his BABIP for his career is .266. Since he puts so many balls in play, he's going to be overly dependent on defenses to bail him out (and the Dodgers had a shit defense that buried him this year). Guerrier isn't a flyball or groundball pitcher, either, he's just a pitch-to-contact guy. That's not a great skillset in a reliever.
Summary
Matt Guerrier is basically a janitor at this point in his career. He's not a guy that you can call on to throw flames and get a strikeout, and he isn't a starter (and doesn't have a 3rd offering to ever be one). He's 34, so his best days are behind him. He's not even really a ROOGY (.319 to .290, wOBA-wise). Guerrier is a fungible reliever that can eat up innings and not be all that bad. He's not worth the 4.75 million he's paid, but he's probably worth the little we saved by shipping Marmol to LA.
Comments
BerseliusQuote Reply
Is Guerrier a fly ball pitcher? That BABIP would be sustainable if he was an extreme fly ball pitcher. Otherwise, I think things will only get worse for him as far as results go.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Nowhere close to a flyball pitcher.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
It will probably be closer to .300 than where he’s been. Weird that he’s maintained a BABIP that low. 591 innings must not be anywhere near a large enough sample to see that closer to what you’d expect.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
is that the game where they had like 4 errors?
joshQuote Reply
Maybe this was posted here and I missed it, but this is a great look into the family dynamic that sports teams have. I didn’t really expect anything else, but this was very interesting: http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/216536161.html
dmick89Quote Reply
I lived in Des Moines for five years and there were a lot of black folk on my block.
GBTSQuote Reply
And this one time, I sawr a blimp.
GBTSQuote Reply
Apparently the I-Cubs don’t know where Mike Olt is.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I’m starting to think the I-Cubs can’t keep track of a single fucking thing. I hope they aren’t running a daycare.
dmick89Quote Reply
Well, he’s in the lineup so I guess they found him. So I’m starting to think you don’t know how to fucking google…
dSteezyQuote Reply
Apparently the icubs found him
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dSteezy:
It’s called twitter, yo: https://mobile.twitter.com/TommyBirch/status/360164649645252610
dmick89Quote Reply
Google?
dmick89Quote Reply
Soriano says Junior Lake reminds him of himself at age 30.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Soriano was pretty good for the Nats at age 30. I hope the Cubs don’t give Lake an 8-year deal for $136 million. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dSteezy:
Thanks, what search engines do you use? I guess I’m kind of out-of-date with the internet. Send me an e-mail with some suggestions: dsteezyisaprick@netzero.net
GBTSQuote Reply
Soriano not in the lineup.
/learnedtousefuckinggoogle
dmick89Quote Reply
Follow up from last thread: Misael, I believe, translates to Josiah.
SVBQuote Reply
Scott Baker got roughed up again, and Baez HR pulled ahead of Baez singles (dying laughing)
MylesQuote Reply
garza makes a throwing error to 1st (dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
I hate that Junior Lake is kicking so much ass because he’s just raising my expectations 🙁
MylesQuote Reply
Now there are two former Cub fans on the telecast who say that they converted to being Ranger fans after the trade and drove from Chicago to Dallas for Garza’s first start.
I can’t criticize the outcome too much, but the process leaves a lot to be desired.
GWQuote Reply
@ SVB:
on steezy’s advice I googled it. consensus seems to be that Misael was an early hebrew version of Michael, as in one of the dudes from the fiery furnace (the Babylonians translated Misael to Meshach). maybe the spanish version is a translation of something else, though…
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
They drove together, right? It would be too bizarre if two Cubs fans who didn’t know one another did this.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
(dying laughing) I think so. One of them seemed to be following the other idiot’s lead. they were both wearing Garza Rangers shirseys.
GWQuote Reply
maybe they were the two people who voted for garza in the poll yesterday
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Garza has only been a Cub for 2+ years. Weird.
dmick89Quote Reply
Todd Hollandsworth played only 164 games for the Cubs.
MylesQuote Reply
Kris Bryant so far: 1-1, 2B
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
When the Cubs traded him to Atlanta in 2005, I drove to Atlanta to watch the them play.
dmick89Quote Reply
Garza 7 1/3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
GWQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Funnily enough, I travelled to follow Paul Bako.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Apparently Uncle Dave is still following Sam Fuld.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
Well, Miguel is Michael. But I may have misremembered it. A Haitian friend of mine has a Mishael in his family. In French, Michel is Michael and Mishael, I thought, was Josiah and I sort of remember him saying it was the same name in Spanish too, but rare.
Various Google sites say I’m full of crap on the Misael/Josiah thing.
SVBQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Why? To add to your finger collection?
SVBQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
@ SVB:
you guys need to get your shit straight. try google. uncle dave is following tony campana. koyie hill is the backup catcher who is slowly shedding fingers.
GWQuote Reply
Junior Lake does not want to be sent down.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
My encyclopedias don’t have anything for google. I’ll go to the library tomorrow. steezy should have just told me what this google is.
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t want to know more about Guerrier. Maybe he just here to help us lose games. That would be fine. But in that case, I don’t know why they wouldn’t keep Marmol and have him boost our draft standing by pitching in major league games.
JQuote Reply
@ GW:
Amazingly, that’s his first error of the season.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This game feels like a loss. I know I should be rooting for them to lose, but it’s not easy. Screw Arizona for winning a World Series. They’re an expansion team that should still be on a Royals/Pirates level of suckage.
JQuote Reply
Sorry to hear that you got robbed, dm
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/buster/florida/florida-keys-man-arrested-theft-box-sex-toys-654308
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cubs won for anyone who cared to stay up. #Woohoo
Rice CubeQuote Reply
BTW, it’s game 99 now. Is Aisley doing the draft race yet?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GW:
(dying laughing) I don’t have the scratch to follow Sam Fuld, so it’s Campana. He’s the utterly destitute man’s Sam Fuld. I can only dream of following Sam Fuld.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I hope Guerrier doesn’t read this article and kill himself.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Someone dissed Henry Blanco yesterday. But not only is he still playing, he has the 8th most home runs in major league history coming out of the 8 hole.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’d suggest a magic number to secure a protected draft pick, because the Cubs are doing their best to not get one next year.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I wasn’t dissing him, but he’s not a money maker for an agent. Classic replacement/backup guy. No one’s giving Hank White a bajillion dollars not to play football.
Also, this:
joshQuote Reply
Are the Cubs 4-5 players (external) players away from really competing? I may be too caught up in recent events, but it doesn’t seem out of the question. They probably need 2 really good bullpen arms from somewhere.
While there’s no 7 or 8 WAR players on the market in 2014, I feel there are quite a few solid pieces they could add through free agency.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
This most recent move makes me think competing next year, or maybe the 2015 isn’t totally out of the question. Actually, the fact that they traded Garza makes me think 2015 is the target, since Garza is still going to be effective next season.
joshQuote Reply
Strasburg: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 12 Ks……..gets the loss
MuckerQuote Reply
No JOT today, I’m crazy busy today. Maybe some enterprising soul wants to do it in my stead…
MylesQuote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
It depends on what you think someone like Olt is going to provide next year. It’s possible Baez could force his way up to the big leagues early next year, but my guess is we don’t see him until the end of the season at the earliest. I’d say there’s not a very good chance of even seeing Soler next year. No chance of seeing Almora or Bryant. Bryant is probably at least 3 years away and the same is probably true of Almora.
So really, the big internal piece would be Olt and to count on him for a lot seems kind of like wishful thinking so early in his career.
They’ve dealt Garza and even Feldman who was very good with the Cubs. We’ll probably see Soriano gone. Lake is NOT this good. Obviously. Maybe Lake can sustain being slightly better than average at the plate like he has in the minors. I’m not betting on it.
Valbuena was the offensive star earlier in the season and he’s reverted to being Luis Valbuena.
It’s also worth point out that Soriano said yesterday that he wanted to win another championship and this team was 3 years away. I’d be surprised if the Cubs spent much money this offseason.
I don’t see them contending next year, but stranger things have happened.
dmick89Quote Reply
Mucker wrote:
Not a winner like Livan Hernandez.
Bill ClayQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I’ll finish the one you’ve started.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles wrote:
Bill ClayQuote Reply
Bill ClayQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think next year will look like this year, in terms of picking up a few smart pieces like Scheirholtz to try to get some leverage in trades. I think they’ll do better overall, generate some buzz going into 2015. Even if they end up being competitive at the ASB, I don’t see them betting the farm. Patience is really the name of the game the Cubs are playing, like it (or agree with it) or not.
I agree with Sori that 3 years is probably the safest bet in terms of being competitive. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that figure came straight from Thoyer in their discussion with Sori of why he should accept a trade.
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
If Olt became a superstar and Lake pulled a Shark, maybe they move one of their minor league 3Bs for a pitcher or something to try to go for a Wild Card. To me that seems like a Black Swan event.
joshQuote Reply
Damn, I didn’t know Colin was that big. His arms look pretty damn big. I always thought he was skinny.
MuckerQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
He didn’t have the Will to Win
WaLiQuote Reply
Did anyone watch the Garza game? He got pulled in the 8th at 95 pitches with the lead, one out, and no one on. He was still screaming into his glove and looked pissed.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
Listed at 6’4″, 230. He must work out.
Bill ClayQuote Reply
@ josh:
Bill ClayQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’m glad we traded that cancer!
WaLiQuote Reply
What’s your thoughts on the read option, Bill?
MuckerQuote Reply
@ josh:
I had it on in the background. Didn’t notice that, though.
In the postgame interview, Pierzynski made a crack about his throws to first, so… that might make for an interesting battery.
GWQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-7-24-13.html
dmick89Quote Reply