Today’s an off day and what better way to spend it then discussing the recent trade between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners. The Cubs sent off 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach and RHP Paul Blackburn in return for LHP Mike Montgomery and RHP Jordan Pries.
We’ll spend this post focusing on the more prominent name in Montgomery. Mike was drafted out of high school in the supplemental round (36th overall) of the 2008 draft when the Royals lost free agent David Riske to the Brewers (side note: Riske went on to give up 41 runs in 66.2 innings with the Brewers before getting run out of baseball).
Mike progressed quickly through the minors reaching AA by age 20 and AAA by age 21. Here’s how the prospect world viewed him during the those years:
Baseball America:
Pre-2010: Rated #39 Prospect
Pre-2011: Rated #19 Prospect
Pre-2012: Rated #23 Prospect
Prospect Ratings by MLB.com:
Pre-2012: Rated #31 Prospect
Prospect Ratings by BaseballProspectus.com:
Pre-2010: Rated #36 Prospect
Pre-2011: Rated #21 Prospect
Montgomery dominated the low minors. While Mike still progressed to AA and AAA, his FIP skyrocketed as he rose through the Royals system. He posted a 4.88 FIP in AAA in 2011 with his K/9 down to 7.71 and BB/9 jumped to 4.12 where we was previously around 8 K/9 and 2 BB/9.
That trend continued in 2012 and the Royals traded him along with Jake Odorizzi and Will Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays for Wade Davis and James Shields. 2013 wasn’t much better in the Rays organization, but things started to turn around a little bit.
| Year | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 1.624 | 6.07 | 6.7 | 3.8 |
| 2013 | 1.457 | 4.83 | 6.7 | 3.9 |
| 2014 | 1.310 | 4.29 | 7.0 | 3.4 |
| 2015 | 1.194 | 4.13 | 8.0 | 2.6 |
*I’d have normally done FIP but BR does have FIP for the MiLB and FG doesn’t summarize by year.
Here’s what Sickels had to say when he saw him back in 2011 (the first year he started to struggle):
In that inning, Montgomery’s fastball was 90-92 MPH, thrown high in the zone with little movement. His slider was flat, and he was telegraphing his curveball; you could tell it was going to be the curve before he released it. He was fooling nobody, his location was off, and he gave up the four runs. However, in the second inning, and for the rest of the game, he looked like a different pitcher. His fastball kicked up to 91-93, with life low in the strike zone. His slider got much sharper, he did a better job selling the curveball, and he mixed in some solid changeups.
For a bigger summation of various scouting reports, the Royals Review blog over at SB Nation did a good job here.
Prior to 2015 the Rays traded Montgomery to the Mariners for RHP Erasmo Ramirez. He broke into the majors in 2015 starting 16 games with a 4.67 FIP. The Mariners put him in the bullpen in 2016 where he’s had much better success to the tune of 7.88 K/9 | 2.63 BB/9 | 3.20 FIP. Specifically, he has a .241 wOBA against left handed batters so far in 20 innings and 78 batters faced.
Baseball America rated his changeup the best in the Royals system in 2011 and 2012. However, so far in 2016 his changeup usage is down to 9.1% compared to 20.4% in his 16 major league starts in 2015. He changeup in 2015 was actually his worst pitch in 2015 with a -3.1 runs above average. He’s throwing more fastballs and curveballs with fewer cutters and changeups. He fastball velocity is up to 93.4 compared to 90.9 as a starter.
This is all to say, well, I have no freaking clue what to expect for him. From the scouting reports I’ve read, no one can put a finger on why Montgomery struggled for years. He doesn’t have an injury history. I’m sure Chris Bosio will get his hands on him and hopefully do his magic. I don’t think he will be Clayton Richard bad which is a plus. He does have some upside and the pedigree. Don’t forget that not too long ago Andrew Miller was a failed starting pitcher. Crazier things have happened.
I’ve been negative about the trade so far, but I do like the fact that his velocity improved as much as it did and he keeps the ball on the ground.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs have done ok with guys like Cahill, Travis Wood, and even Richard last season, so maybe he does turn into a lasting bullpen piece. Maybe they’re catching a guy who just started to figure things out. Every time I doubt a move by the FO, it seems to turn out ok, so he’ll probably turn into the next Andrew Miller.
EdwinQuote Reply
Keith Law has Eloy Jimenez ranked 29 in his mid season list.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Edwin,
He’s gonna become the Aldi generic brand Andrew Miller.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Momtgomery seems like a fine 7th inning guy, but Vogelbach just seemed like he would have netted more. Maybe that is by Cubs bias showing. Before this year Montgomery was the type of guy you could get on waivers a dozen times every september.
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
This makes me happy https://mobile.twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/756164111445037059
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
He seems to be a good target. FA, platoon probable, makes contact, shouldn’t cost too much due to Cubs’ existing redundancies acting as a form of leverage.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
How dare he:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-kyle-schwarber/
EdwinQuote Reply
dmick89,
It’s a bummer that Sean Doolittle is hurt, I think it would have made a nifty package deal to grab both of them. And I think it would be hilarious if they sent Coghlan the other way as part of the deal.
uncle daveQuote Reply
no fuck that, the cubs just gave up their DH
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Myles Handley,
I think that the deal not only speaks to the trade value Vogelbach has, but also to how much of a seller’s market it is for pitching right now. Drew Pomeranz got a top-20 prospect in return, though in fairness that was a prospect who carries a lot of risk to go along with his upside. And Pomeranz is pretty similar to Montgomery and a small bit better. The main differences are that he got the chance to suck for years in the majors instead of AAA and has one-plus good year under his belt instead of half of one.
I can’t wait to see what the return is for Rich Hill. What a lottery ticket he’s become.
uncle daveQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
(dying laughing)
uncle daveQuote Reply
I’ve become fine with Theo dealing Schwarber for the right thing, even in a more win-now type of deal. In fact, if the Yankees will add Chapman to the Miller deal, even with some misgivings, I’d probably go for it given how dominant both of them are. Every game with a Cubs lead past the 6th would be over the rest of the year. Every single game.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I think you’re right. In a vacuum I think this trade looks horrible, but we’ll see if the market really is that bad for buying teams.
MylesQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
While I think that we could all agree that doing that trade makes them much better in 2016 and a better chance to win the WS in 2016.
I just can’t sell out for one year and give up someone who could be one of the games top 10 hitters (I honestly think he will be a Chris Davis that makes more contact). Plus, when you’re trying to win a WS, I’d rather Theo field a great team for multiple years than try to sell out for a year. Imagine if Chapman or Miller go down with an injury and aren’t available for the playoffs.
Even if Chapman had 3 years of control, I’d still hold on to Schwarber. Only way I’d trade him is for a starting pitcher like Carrasco, Sale, etc. Even then, there’s more risk of injury with a pitcher than with Schwarber reinjuring his ACL.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Horrible seems a bit strong, whether in a Hoover or not. Gotta leave some room terminology-wise for an even worse trade, which may be coming (dying laughing).
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Horrible might be too harsh. How about “bad?” Leaves horrible for Schwarber-for-Chapman.
MylesQuote Reply
I guess it all depends on what one thinks of Kyle Schwarber. I like him quite a bit, but you’re far more bullish than I am. Top ten hitter in baseball is not plausible to me (though I hope I’m wrong). I’m very concerned how he comes back physically from a totally fucked-up knee. He’s not the most mobile guy to begin with, and he’s not the most defensively talented individual in the world, at any position. Chances are at least worryingly high that he comes back even worse defensively than when he left—and he was pretty bad then.
I know, the bat. The bat is dreamy, but not without its own worries and flaws. There’s tons of talent, but there’s also more risk than has been acknowledged. He’s a high K guy and not every high K adjusts like Kris Bryant. He could come back next year, suck ass defensively and not hit. That seems very real and very possible to me, especially with the missed year. He could also come back, suck ass defensively and hit well. What he almost certainly won’t do though is come back, hit well and field well, which makes me more open to dealing him. Dealing complete players gives me hives, dealing players with lopsided skillsets, no hives as of yet.
And I’d be extremely surprised if the Cubs could get a Sale or Carrasco for just him. If they can, they better fucking do it right now.
That all said, I’m fine if the Cubs keep him. Fine if they deal him for something big, which Miller and Chapman qualifies as to me.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Bad is acceptable, tho I prefer “meh.” It’s an undesirable type of trade, for sure.
But then I don’t think Vogelbach will amount to a goddamned thing. And wouldn’t have fetched much better anyway.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Sounds like Dex is coming back tomorrow
berseliusQuote Reply
What happened to the notion that RPs are highly volatile? I still feel that’s true and that the Cubs can pick up a dominant reliever without trading an impact bat. I just can’t get behind trading a piece that is under control until 2022 for 2 years of an elite reliever when you can sign one after the season and/or trade for a very good (not great) reliever for a lesser package.
I mean, something that’s not being considered in any article I’ve read including FG is the opportunity cost. Is there really that much a difference between Miller and say, Justin Wilson (or dare I say a *gasp* right handed reliever)?
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Yeah, there’s just no way I’m selling out that much for this season. I’m not as concerned about the bullpen at this point as a lot of people are. Sure, they’re going to blow games from time to time, but so will just about any bullpen. I’m much more concerned about the team’s inability to score a run in situations in which they should obviously be scoring a run. Some of that is injury related (Fowler, Soler, Schwarber) so that’s just how it is for now. Hopefully they’ll fill that LH bat in LF to platoon with Soler and I wouldn’t even bother with the bullpen after that. Another starter just in case wouldn’t be bad either.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m not sure I understand how it’s not plausible. Including the playoffs last year, he was better than either Bryant or Rizzo at the plate and he was a year younger than Bryant. He hit nearly as many home runs as Bryant (including playoffs) in half as many plate appearances. His hitting was as good as Bryant’s (nearly) in the regular season despite a BABIP more in line with what one should expect. He walked more, struckout less and had a better ISO. He will also have the platoon advantage more often.
I think we all see that it’s plausible for Bryant to be one of the ten best hitters in the league. I’m not sure why the opposite is true for Schwarber. The numbers at the minor league level and MLB level suggest he can be.
I think in a couple years Schwarber is the best hitter of the three, but I also think all three of them are going to be good and close enough that determining the best is kind of pointless.
I’d be more concerned about how he comes back from the injury if he was going to catch or if speed was a big part of his game. Or if this was football. I think he’ll be just fine, but I think it will take some time for him to trust that knee completely.
I agree though. It comes down to what one thinks of Schwarber. I’m just not sure why the media or some of the fans are thinking so little of him. There’s reason to disagree on his overall value, I think, but I’m not so sure there’s as much reason to disagree on whether or not he’s one of the better hitters in the league.
dmick89Quote Reply
I also doubt the Cubs would get Sale or Carrasco for Schwarber, but that’s just fine. There’s not a reasonable trade that I could see myself trading Schwarber for. The bottom line is that the Cubs might improve their odds of winning a playoff series or two this postseason if they trade Schwarber for a dominant reliever, but their playoff odds for the next few years go down considerably in the process. A dominant reliever is not going to significantly increase the team’s odds of winning a playoff series and it’s definitely not going to significantly alter their odds of winning it all. It might give them a half a percentage bump while decreasing their odds of reaching the postseason in every year after 2016. And what happens if you trade for Miller and he turns back to shit, which is entirely possible since he’s a reliever?
dmick89Quote Reply
Absolutely nothing. However, I’m not saying I’m fine dealing Schwarber for any reliever having a good season, but two of the best in the game and two of the surest things the position can possibly know. In my mind, that’s different (and yeah, I think Andrew Miller is quite a bit better even if Justin Wilson is having a good season in his own right). If Schwarber then I won’t accept anything less than both of Chapman and Miller. One or the other won’t cut it. Has to be the two of them for me to be okay with it, and even then, as I originally stated, it would be with misgivings. It is a risk. I would never say otherwise. But on occasion I will accept a move like this if it brings in something of the caliber that Chapman and Miller are. I too want multiple shots at the apple, so to speak, and as a rule want a FO that doesn’t sacrifice the long-term for the short, but I also think there are times to break the rule, and this might be one of those times. It’d be one thing if I were saying I’d be fine with Bryant for Chapman/Miller, but I ain’t. In my mind, Schwarber also carries quite a bit of volatility at this point. His value is derived almost exclusively from his offense, and we don’t have enough PA to say definitively that he’s going to be long-term with the bat what we all hope he can. Add to that his blown-to-shit knee (some guys bounce back fine, others don’t; like it or not, this injury clouded his future a lot more than we’d like to admit), and you’ve got good reason to seriously consider and perhaps even make a deal like Schwarber-Miller/Chapman. My preference would be a Schwarber-Sale, Schwarber-Carrasco type deal. But I won’t pitch a fit if Schwarber-Miller/C, and I won’t deem it a “bad” trade. There is something to be said for winning a WS right the fuck now, and imo adding those two would enhance this team’s chances a non-trivial amount.
But, if the Cubs can pry away a Justin Wilson without giving up anything we’d get too pissed about, then, really, I’m fine with that too. Chances are, since we’re getting pissed about Vogelbach for Montgomery for crying out loud, such a scenario is unlikely to occur, but if Theo can manage something like that, then I’d be aces with that as well. In fact, if I were a betting man on this, that’s the way I’d bet Theo is going to go. Hang on to Schwarber, see about getting someone like a Justin Wilson, and that’s that.
So this is likely all moot anyway. Theo seems to be thinking as you do, and I’d be moderately surprised if Schwarber is dealt for Chapman/Miller.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Definitely this. I’m going on 6 years since I had my ACL reconstructed, and still don’t trust my knee completely.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
You and I discussed this before. I don’t think my ACL tear was as bad as yours. It took me a long time before I felt comfortable running again. I felt 99% at about 9-12 months, but it wasn’t for another 6-12 before I felt 100%. I think Schwarber is in a much better position than I was in that he has a team of doctors and professionals that can help him get there more quickly. In the end though, it’s going to come down to him finally trusting that knee and that’s going to take some time.
I’m not as worried about it as Smokestack is. It will heal and he’ll be fine. I see him getting the function needed for hitting the ball back a long way no problem. We might see his defense suffer a bit more than we’d expect early on though, but no one is expecting him to be a defensive genius out there.
dmick89Quote Reply
Well, adding the postseason and downplaying sample size, sure, I suppose on the face that’s sort-of correct, though taken out of this context and applied to another I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t be offering this line of argument.
I will readily admit that perhaps I’m making too much of his knee injury. If this deal had come up prior to the season, I’d have been far more reticent than I am now. I’d likely be making the same argument y’all are now.
But it’s not just the knee. It’s the lost season. It’s the lost development. Maybe Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber were all pretty close together as of last year (I don’t really think so, but hey), but Schwarber has lost a year while Bryant has taken strides forward while Rizzo has continued to solidify his spot has one of the best bats in this game. The added experience of continued excellence matters. We now have multiple years of Rizzo being Rizzo. Bryant’s made some impressive adjustments and is closing in on an even better season than last. Schwarber? Sadly, the same 273 PA and a season-ending knee injury from which it’s hard to say how strong he will come back and how long it will take for him to get back where he was, let alone start making adjustments to hit the next tier. Not playing baseball for a long time takes a toll. And as promising as Schwarber’s first foray in the big leagues was at times, I believe there’s less there that can really be counted on going forward, especially when factoring in the lost season, nasty injury, and inherent weaknesses in his game that are highly unlikely to ever get better and may actually get worse now.
But I could be wrong (dying laughing). And my bet is we’ll get the chance to see with Schwarber in a Cubs uni. And if he stays in a Cubs uni, I better fucking be wrong.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, I have faith in Schwarber given the comparatively ridiculous resources at his disposal to recover. I’m remembering Yovani Gallardo’s return from an ACL tear in May 2008 later that year (September, I think), so professional athletes have quite a bit to work with.
Mine would probably be better than it is, but I cut my physical therapy a bit short to deploy to Afghanistan. While I was just a staff officer (not patrolling in mountains or anything), walking around on small rocks for a year isn’t the best thing for stability or confidence.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Sample size was an issue for both at the end of last season (more so for Schwarber, I’ll admit). As for adding postseason, there’s no reason it shouldn’t be. It’s stupid that it’s not already counted anyway.
the lost season is a good point, but it’s something that’s been overcome countless times by pitchers so I’m not sure we shouldn’t expect a full recovery in that sense too.
dmick89Quote Reply
Agreed. I probably am. Also, I’m starting to put more of a premium on having the best shot at winning the whole thing this year. If I’m honest with myself I’ll admit that I’d take a better chance of a WS win now at the risk of a possibly slightly diminished chance next year, which trading Schwarber for Chapman/Miller would probably accomplish (can’t say for sure, other moves will be made either way). I can’t speak for everyone else, and I intellectually agree 100% about 5 year windows and thinking long-term and all that shit, but honestly, win the whole thing this year, and I won’t give a flying fuck about the next five.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I hope you’re right, but I’m more concerned given how many plate appearances it really takes before knowing what a team has in a hitter. Let’s face it, pitchers don’t play very much anyway (dying laughing).
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
It’s doubtful that Schwarber will even be spending any time working on catching at this point so that’s also a positive development for his hitting. Not only does it take away the wear and tear, but he’s got more time to work on hitting than he had before. It also helps that Contreras emerged as the future catcher and the Cubs just don’t need Schwarber to be that guy anymore.
dmick89Quote Reply
It takes a few seasons. We can’t even be 100% sure yet with Bryant. There’s still some part of me that fears he’s suddenly going to start sucking and end up back at AAA for the rest of his career. So yeah, there’s definitely some concern there that has to do with sample size. It’s less of a concern for me when the player has a track record of hitting at every level like Schwarber did, though even with his minor league numbers we’re still talking small sample sizes.
So yeah, there’s the possibility that he’s just not very good. It’s more likely than not that I’m wrong about his potential. What are the odds he’s one of the ten best hitters in the league? Probably not very good and I’m generally someone who is pretty skeptical of young talent. For some reason, I was never skeptical of Bryant or Schwarber by the time they reached the big leagues. Whatever skepticism I ever had about either player had worn off in the minor leagues. Both, in my opinion, are elite bats. Bryant is the better overall player by quite a bit because of his defense and base running, but in my opinion, I think Schwarber ends up hitting for more power than Bryant and that’s saying something.
dmick89Quote Reply
And that is a big deal. Contreras is probably one of the least discussed serious positive developments Theo’s farm has produced.
One thing that would have me doing an immediate 180 on this trade discussion would be if there were any hope for the NL to get its head out of its ass and bring in the DH. Do that, and I’ll happily roll the dice on this squad as-is for ROS.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Don’t tell me what not to expect
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Okay, I just made myself watch some Schwarber PAs.
Maybe it’s not such a good idea to trade him for relievers. The Andrew-Miller-coaxing-groundouts highlight reel just isn’t as compelling.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
Chicks dig the 4-3 putout
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
I honesty think the bigger deal is Schwarber’s lost year than recouping from his injury. He was never going to be a full time catcher. Realistically the injury makes him an emergency catcher with maybe some spot starts. But I don’t think he catches a single game next year.
He’s not a speedster and he’s not in the infield which requires more lateral movement. Baseball is mostly a sport of straight line running. There’s not much stress on an ACL which is why there’s hardly any ACL injuries in baseball. Add the fact that he hits lefty and his injured his left knee. He’ll have a lot less twisting of the left knee compared to his right plant leg. By that I mean on the plant leg, the lower leg plants and stays stationary while the upper leg slightly twists causing some torque on the knee. The leg leg all moves in conjunction on the ball of the foot.
I really don’t have any concerns about his knee being an issue for him at the plate or running. It will just be hard to not see live pitching for a longer period of time than he’s ever experienced in his life.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I was never particularly worried about Schwarber’s K’s, whereas I was with Bryant. Schwarber’s rates in the minors and college were pretty good, and he doesn’t have the long frame like Bryant.
GWQuote Reply
GW,
Good point. His strikeout rate didn’t jump until he came up to the big leagues. It was higher in AAA after that too, but he didn’t have many plate appearances there. I’m guessing that increase had more to do with jumping levels than it did anything else.
dmick89Quote Reply
Stop sucking, Padres bullpen.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Please?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That was a nice four-run Cardinals deficit while it lasted.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Matheny brings in Broxton rather than Oh or Siegrest. Thanks, Mike.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I hate the Padres so goddamn much right now.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You guys are as refreshing as a hop in a pool…on a winter’s day.
Re Vogelbach for Montgomery:
I would like to have seen Vogelbach as part of a larger package for the likes of Miller or a not injured Doolittle, but the Yanks drew a line in the sand that said Schwarber and Doolittle is really living up to the meaning of his name. Alas.
So what then? The Cubs like to use starters in the bullpen. Montogomery is a power lefty at the age that power pitchers seem to blossom. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but doesn’t walk a ton and gets grounders. It looks like he has some good stuff. Stuff good enough that he was once highly touted.
And contrary to some comments here, he isn’t just a reliever with limited control on his contract, they expect him to be some starting pitching depth for the next five years. It’s a long-term deal for long-term deal, with the bonus that he has had success in a role that is a need for this team. I don’t expect him to be a lefthanded Arrieta, but I also don’t think that they gave up Donaldson to get him (even if he becomes the next Edgar Martinez).
I still think they should have promoted Vogelbach the moment Rizzo had back issues, just to prove that he can hit and give Rizzo some rest and Maddon a bat off the bench. But it’s done. I wish him luck. And I hope that Montgomery does a better job than Warren has done this year.
I don’t love the trade, but it’s possible that I may. It’s unlikely that I will hate it. In that light, I think it was a fine trade to make.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Also, I really want the home team to decide whether there is a DH (or 2 or more) on a game by game basis. Arrieta has been worth almost a win with his bat alone. That’s huge matched up against most other pitchers. Lester and Hendricks could be DHed for most of the time.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I hope that Vogelbach really tears it up so that Theo and Jed can point to a player they developed completely that has succeeded for another team. That can only help them get deals done. I also hope that Montgomery does become an Andrew Miller out of the pen and eventually a Jon Lester in the rotation.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Okay—back to hibernation for me.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I don’t think there’s much point in comparing Schwarber to other low-contact hitters unless they have a similar projection to him.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I think you’d also want to limit it to 24 and younger rather than 25, and you have to take into account that he pretty much jumped straight from AA to MLB. Add in the fact that he had been spending a great deal of time working exclusively on catching skills and I’m just not sure any comparison is worthwhile. The projection is the best way to know what he’s likely capable of in my opinion.
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/series-preview-chicago-cubs-57-37-milwaukee-brewers-40-53/
dmick89Quote Reply