BP Cubs top prospects

In News And Rumors by dmick8957 Comments

In case you missed it in some sort of turkey-induced coma, Kevin Goldstein published his Cubs top prospect list over at BPro. Here’s his list:

  1. Brett Jackson
  2. Javier Baez
  3. Welington Castillo
  4. Dillon Maples
  5. Matt Sczcur
  6. Josh Vitters
  7. Jeimer Candelario
  8. Trey McNutt
  9. Marco Hernandez
  10. Junior Lake
  11. Rafael Dolis
  12. Dan Vogelbach
  13. Jae-Hoon Ha
  14. Chris Carpenter
  15. Tony Zych
  16. Ryan Flaherty
  17. DJ LeMaiheu
  18. Zeke DeVoss
  19. Reggie Golden
  20. Marwin Gonzalez

We’ve read plenty about the big names on this list (Jackson, Vitters, etc.) so I’ll focus on some names on this list that I’m less familiar with and two in particular who were omitted.

Of all the players on the list, Jeimer Candelario’s appearance intrigued me the most. I don’t remember who is was here who’s been talking him up (dylan?). He just turned 18 on Thankgiving, and has a great bat. It sounds like he won’t stick at 3b but should hit well enough to hold down first base. He’s young enough to improve on defense, so if he sticks at 3b even better. He’ll probably chase Vogelbach up the ladder in the Cubs minor league system.

I was surprised to see Dillon Maples ranked so high, but that’s mostly due to my natural bias against high school pitcher. All credit to Tom Ricketts for opening up the wallet to get the tough sign anyway, since just about every scout thinks he’s going to be really good. KG thinks he’s four years away but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rocket up through the system.

Speaking of high profile pitching draft picks, 2010 first round pick Homer Simpson is mysteriously nowhere to be found after suffering from the longest case of mononucleosis ever. As great as the 2011 draft was, drafts like 2010 still leave me scratching my head about Tim Wilken et al’s process. He’s still running the draft but I’m guessing/hoping there will be a bit more oversight from the rest of the Hall of Justice.

Also conspicuously missing from the list is former top prospect and Keith Law favorite Jay Jackson, who failed his bullpen test in 2010 and has fallen off the face of the earth since. It’s telling that despite the clusterfuck that was the 2011 Cubs rotation, Jay Jackson was never called up. Jackson posted solid-to-huge strikeout rates in A-AA, but as soon as he hit AAA he continued to pound the strike zone (BB/9 below 3) but suddenly couldn’t strike anyone out at all. His velocity was apparently way down this year, and he’s unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. I think there are plenty of teams who could have interest in him, but he’s not ready to be carried on a MLB roster for a full season.


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  1. mb21

    I’m afraid Trey McNutt is on the Jay Jackson path. Both pitchers had their BB/9 and K/9 go in very wrong directions right away at AA and then AAA for Jackson. Jackson later found the command he once had, but still can’t strike anyone out.

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  2. binky

    I’m thinking the biggest losers in the caps on the amateur draft will be the agents. Those are the guys negotiating the top dollar deals, and they liked to push the envelope as far as it would go. I think the Strasburg deal spooked everybody about the potential signings of the future, given the precedent set and so they did this to punish agents more. An upcoming player may lament that he can’t make Strasburg money, but he’ll still be happy with his millions is my guess.

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  3. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]I’m afraid Trey McNutt is on the Jay Jackson path. Both pitchers had their BB/9 and K/9 go in very wrong directions right away at AA and then AAA for Jackson. Jackson later found the command he once had, but still can’t strike anyone out.[/quote]
    Was it just blisters with McNutt? I can’t remember. I know Jackson’s velocity was way down this year.

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  4. GW

    drafts like 2010 still leave me scratching my head about Tim Wilken et al’s process

    also, did ricketts just have a eureka moment about draft spending in 2011? or is the “hendry saw this cba coming” narrative true? or….

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  6. fang2415

    Homer Simpson

    (dying laughing)

    I hope the 2011 class turns out good enough that the Superfriends can use it to jump-start the org in spite of the new draft caps. Although it would be quite funny if the 2013 team was terrific because of a bunch of stuff that Hendry did.

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  8. Berselius

    [quote name=fang2415](dying laughing)

    I hope the 2011 class turns out good enough that the Superfriends can use it to jump-start the org in spite of the new draft caps. Although it would be quite funny if the 2013 team was terrific because of a bunch of stuff that Hendry did.[/quote]
    I’m feeling pretty good about the depth in the Cubs system. Brett Jackson is pretty much the only guy who’s going to be worth anything at the big league level anytime soon, but the Cubs should have a solid wave of talent hitting the majors in 3-4 years.

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  9. Berselius

    [quote name=fang2415]I can’t be bothered to repost from the old thread, so: IFA caps? Dominican facility? Cubs? Bad?[/quote]
    It certainly hurts their Dominican facility, but nothing says that they have to allow other teams’ scouts there. The potential IFA draft is going to hurt teams with facilities like this a lot more than the IFA cap.

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  10. mb21

    McNutt had blisters and a shoulder injury from a collision, but his strikeout went down as soon as he reached AA. I know it was only a few innings in 2010, but still. I’m thinking he’s more likely than not a reliever.

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  11. fang2415

    [quote name=mb21]Hendry saw the CBA thing coming.[/quote]It would be funny also if the Ricketts are actually really cheap, but everybody now thinks they’re big spenders because of this one draft that they knew would be the only one they’d ever spend on.

    Well, I guess also the hiring 9 GMs to run the team thing.

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  12. Berselius

    [quote name=mb21]McNutt had blisters and a shoulder injury from a collision, but his strikeout went down as soon as he reached AA. I know it was only a few innings in 2010, but still. I’m thinking he’s more likely than not a reliever.[/quote]
    How long between his reaching AA and his blister/shoulder problems? Could just be a small sample size thing.

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  13. fang2415

    [quote name=Berselius]It certainly hurts their Dominican facility, but nothing says that they have to allow other teams’ scouts there. The potential IFA draft is going to hurt teams with facilities like this a lot more than the IFA cap.[/quote]Well, that worked well. How about: Draft bonus caps? Huge MiLB contracts for draftees? Or Longo-type extensions? Why not? (dying laughing)

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  14. fang2415

    So, the comments are still/again doing that thing where they don’t show up until you post. I even just posted, saw all the comments, reloaded the whole page, and now they don’t show up again.

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  15. Berselius

    [quote name=fang2415]Well, that worked well. How about: Draft bonus caps? Huge MiLB contracts for draftees? Or Longo-type extensions? Why not? (dying laughing)[/quote]
    You have to have a player as good as Longoria to get a Longoria-like extension (dying laughing)

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  16. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]How long between his reaching AA and his blister/shoulder problems? Could just be a small sample size thing.[/quote]He had a blister early in the season and then had problems with it for awhile, but even when he was healthy his strikeout rate wasn’t very good. He’s still young and there’s certainly time to improve, but KG has him ranked about right. He’s not a top 5 prospect for the Cubs, but he’s probably still a top 10. As long as he has the potential to be a starter he’s in the top 10. Last year people were thinking McNutt could be a staff ace. That’s just not likely.

    Keep in mind that his entire career is a small sample. He’s only thrown 239 career innings. 110.2 of those (most at any level) have been at AA where he’s basically sucked. He rose to the top of the prospect lists based on 128.1 innings.

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  18. mb21

    [quote name=Berselius]Good point MB. Have the scouts said anything about changes to McNutt’s stuff or delivery?[/quote]I think the scouts are still high on him, but as I’ve said in the past, I think that’s because it’s hard for them to let go of a guy’s potential. A scout is always going to see the potential, especially if he’s seen flashes of it and McNutt has certain shown those flashes. Same with Vitters. Look how long it’s taken for him to fall down the rankings despite huge holes in his game. At the same time it’s much easier for a guy like McNutt who was drafted in the late rounds to shoot up the rankings. But once you’re there, I don’t think they fall much.

    A scout obviously is in a position to know more about what went wrong with McNutt than I am of course. So who knows?

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  19. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    How was McNutt in the AFL? Was his velocity back in the mid-90s? I think that was the thing that suffered the most this year, if not also control. Apparently he is still struggling for a solid 3rd pitch/changeup, meanwhile Cashner apparently has 3 good pitches now. I kinda hope he still gets a chance to start long-term, even if he’s a bullpen guy for next year.

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  26. fang2415

    [quote name=Rice Cube]

    (dying laughing)[/quote]I can’t see the Cardinals logo in that pic. Maybe my screen needs adjusting.

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  29. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Regular Tebow update: 0-for-3 0-for-4 passing, 0 yards.[/quote]Ah, there’s the Tebow TD of the day.

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  30. wv23

    hey all –

    mb21 has graciously offered to provide some Iowa coverage at our new Big Ten site, when he can. Thanks, mb.

    That said, we are in need of Illinois and Northwestern folks, if you or anybody you know would like to write regularly about the Illini and Wildcats.

    It isn’t a heavy lift. No daily or game coverage or anything like that is needed (unless you want to). Instead, we are just looking for regular content on any and all sports (water polo, for example).

    Let me know if you’re interested – and thanks, guys, for letting me do the commercial again.

    http://dailybigten.com (just hit contact us at the top, if interested)

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  31. fang2415

    [quote name=wv23]hey all –

    mb21 has graciously offered to provide some Iowa coverage at our new Big Ten site, when he can. Thanks, mb.

    That said, we are in need of Illinois and Northwestern folks, if you or anybody you know would like to write regularly about the Illini and Wildcats.

    It isn’t a heavy lift. No daily or game coverage or anything like that is needed (unless you want to). Instead, we are just looking for regular content on any and all sports (water polo, for example).

    Let me know if you’re interested – and thanks, guys, for letting me do the commercial again.

    http://dailybigten.com (just hit contact us at the top, if interested)[/quote]I’m no longer plugged into the Big Ten water polo scene, but I look forward to reading about it on your blog. IIRC MSU has pretty dominant ever since Russell left the conference to coach at Harvard. (dying laughing)

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  33. wv23

    [quote name=fang2415]I’m no longer plugged into the Big Ten water polo scene, but I look forward to reading about it on your blog. IIRC MSU has pretty dominant ever since Russell left the conference to coach at Harvard. (dying laughing)[/quote]that’s the kind of insight we need!

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  36. fang2415

    [quote name=wv23]that’s the kind of insight we need![/quote](dying laughing)

    Great, and that’s only 12 years out of date! My brother was more recently the player-coach at UW polo, and he only graduated like four years ago, so if he still knows what’s going on with Big Ten polo then I’ll order him to write for you. (dying laughing)

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  43. WaLi

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I think all the Bears fans on this blog just committed suicide after the most retarded spike attempt in NFL history.[/quote]
    Yeah what the fuck was that (dying laughing) Only the Bears can fail a spike.

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  44. binky

    [quote name=WaLi]Yeah what the fuck was that (dying laughing) Only the Bears can fail a spike.[/quote]They teased me with their winning and their creeping into wild card contention. I should have known better. I SHOULD HAVE KNOWN!

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  48. Berselius

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Berselius, trying to score some extra cash?

    [/quote]
    Tutoring math is an incredible gravy train if you can get on it. I did it while a grad student and felt like I was stealing money from undergrads. I probably should have charged more (dying laughing).

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  55. Aisle424

    [quote name=AB]Miles posted on NSBS that Simpson had an unspecified elbow injury that wasn’t identified until late in the season.[/quote]Worst. Mono. Case. Ever.

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  57. Aisle424

    [quote name=Berselius]Tutoring math is an incredible gravy train if you can get on it. I did it while a grad student and felt like I was stealing money from undergrads. I probably should have charged more (dying laughing).[/quote]
    I tutored a sophomore when I was a Senior in high school. The kid was a dumb shit, but I got $20 an hour to show him how to solve quadratic equations. That was pretty good money for a high school kid over 20 years ago.

    Fuck, I’m old.

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