Today at 4 pm is the signing deadline for draftees. The big story concerns #1 overall pick Brady Aiken, and can be read about here and here.
Summary:
- Aiken has a smaller than normal UCL.
- The Astros are offering him the minimum amount required by the CBA to an injured draftee (40% of their original deal).
- Because the team hasn’t completed a deal with Aiken, it cannot honor its agreement with fifth round pick Jacob Nix, as Nix’s overslot deal draws from the money allocated to the team from the #1 overall pick.
Possible outcomes:
- If the Astros were to honor their agreement with Nix and fail to sign Aiken, they would lose their first round pick in the next two drafts. (This won’t happen)
- If they sign neither Aiken nor Nix, they will receive the #2 overall pick next year as compensation, and keep their regular picks. (Possible, but unlikely in my opinion)
- If the Astros successfully sign Aiken at the revised lower offer, they stand a good chance of signing both Nix and 21st round pick Mac Marshall, who has a strong commitment to LSU. (My guess is that the team ups their offer to Aiken a bit, and this comes to fruition).
The discussion I have heard in saber-circles is lacking in some respects, and I think too much credit is being given to the team simply because they are very astute, and “we” like smart front offices.
- Most seem to freely describe this as an injury. If it’s true that Aiken has simply a smaller than normal UCL, and not a torn one, I don’t see how anyone could accurately characterize it as such. Aiken’s performance has not suffered one bit. Instead, it’s a risk factor for future injury. That seems to me an important distinction, and one that calls into question the team’s use of the injured player provision. (Unfortunately, I can’t find the details of that particular provision in the CBA).
- Doctors are not omniscient. Much has been made of the fact that Aiken has visited five doctors to evaluate his UCL. I think it is likely that these doctors have no idea how to assess a small UCL as a risk factor for future injuries. Surgeons see broken UCLs and look backwards to determine risks, and they haven’t said anything about TJ patients disproportionately starting with smaller than average UCLs. What is needed here is a study that assesses a group of small-UCL’ed pitchers and a control, then determining the differences in future UCL injury rates. That is unlikely to ever happen, and lacking it, a physicist would probably be a more effective consultant than a doctor in evaluating Aiken’s risk.
- Aiken is worth more than he is being offered, small UCL or not. It is very hard to believe that the Astros are not pushing the limits of the CBA with their lowball offer to Aiken. Were he to be declared a free agent today, I think a $15-20 million dollar bonus is probably conservative. (Just ask mediocre Cuban reliever Raisel Iglesias). Even within the confines of the artificial pricing structure that is the MLB draft, 40% of the original deal seems too low. Jeff Hoffman dropped only 4 or 5 spots in the draft, and his UCL was actually torn.
Now, I’m sure the team is legitimately concerned about the risk of future injury, but they are milking this for all that it’s worth in trying to acquire Marshall, threatening to reneg on Nix’s deal, and possibly being content with a “do-over” in next year’s draft should things not play out the way they want. The player’s union shares some blame for Aiken’s plight, of course, given their characteristic disregard of draftees in the last round of CBA negotiations. Even so, it’s hard for me to see this as anything but bad form from the Astros.