I rarely read Bruce Levine’s chats, but for some reason that’s what I did with the one he had yesterday. One of the questions was asked about why Marlon Byrd was still with the Cubs considering the rebuild they’re undergoing. There are a couple reasons Byrd has not been traded and in my opinion, likely will not be. He’s provides quality production for little money and he won’t bring all that much in a trade.
Bruce says that Byrd is still in Chicago because they have not signed Coco Crisp or traded for a young CF yet. Neither of these makes the least bit of sense. If I was going to explain why Byrd might be traded, those would be the last things I’d think of because it makes no sense whatsoever. You may as well say the Cubs will trade Matt Garza when they acquire Matt Garza or trade for a 28 year old top of the rotation starter with two years of club control left.
It’s not that Coco Cirsp isn’t a good ballplayer. Over the last 3 years Crisp has been worth 5.9 rWAR. That’s about league average. Marlon Byrd has been worth 7.7 rWAR. Crisp has been worth 7 fWAR while Byrd has been worth 7.8 fWAR. Much of the difference is playing time, but that is important. Byrd can stay healthy and you certainly can’t count on Crisp to do the same. On a per plate appearance basis the two are roughly equal, but playing time favors Byrd.
Even if we were to just look at this on the per PA basis, what good does it do to replace Byrd with someone who is only as good as Byrd? Answer: none. Crisp might cost a million bucks less than Byrd, but then you have to start factoring in playing time.
Secondly, the Cubs already have a young CF prospect in Brett Jackson. If the goal was to replace Byrd with a young CF prospect, the Cubs can already do that. Right now. And it doesn’t require them to rearrange the deck chairs in order to do so. They simply slide Byrd to LF and insert Jackson in CF. Done.
In last year’s Baseball America Top 100 Prospects, Brett Jackson ranked 38th. Only 5 outfielders ranked higher than Jackson. Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Desmond Jennings were the only CF prospects ranked higher. So who exactly are these young CF prospects the Cubs are going to acquire that will be better than Jackson?
According to Ken Rosenthal, Crisp wants to play for a team committed to winning and he wants a multi-year contract. Bruce knows as well as anyone that the team is not committed to winning right now. He also knows they probably aren’t going to throw a 3-year offer at a 32-year old CF in decline who has trouble taking the field. Sometimes I wish people would put an ounce of thought into what the sources are telling these people and it’s not even clear a source has told Levine anything about Byrd being traded.
Marlon Byrd might be traded, but it’s not going to hinge on the Cubs signing Coco Crisp or acquiring young CF prospects. They already have Coco Crisp on their roster playing CF and he’s a healthier version. They already have young CF prospects in their system and one of them is MLB ready. The other is a year or two away (Matt Szczur). Whether they trade Marlon Byrd will depend on a couple of things, but not what Burce says.
Can the Cubs trade Alfonso Soriano? If they can, I suspect they just move Byrd over to LF. This assumes they’re dying to play Brett Jackson from the start of the season and have to make room. If they’re stuck with Soriano and aren’t willing to just eat the contract then trading Byrd makes a bit more sense. Also, what can they get in return?
CAIRO projects 1.6 WAR, Oliver 1.1, the Fans 3.0 and Bill James 2.0. That’s a 1.9 WAR average. Seems reasonable. That’s $9.5 million and Byrd will be paid $6.5 million. We knew he wouldn’t be worth much and $3.5 million surplus trade value isn’t a whole lot. The Cubs could get a Grade C pitcher 22 and younger as well as a Grade C pitcher 23 and older for Byrd. If they sent about $6 million along in the trade they could get a top 76-100 pitcher in return.
Comments
First
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Unobstructed View: http://obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/mlb/tht-looks-at-the-jed-hoyer-era-in-san-diego.html
mb21Quote Reply
Hey Mish, can you bring me some too?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I was thinking Byrd would be more of a mid-season trade candidate depending on which team is in desperate need for a CF during a pennant race.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I was thinking Byrd would be more of a mid-season trade candidate depending on which team is in desperate need for a CF during a pennant race.[/quote]I tend to think so too. I don’t see any reason they’d begin the season with Jackson at the big league level. It’s not as if he can’t work on something in the minors and getting that 7th year of service time is far more important than 5 to 6 weeks in April and early May. Brett Jackson shouldn’t see CF at Wrigley until late May or early June.
mb21Quote Reply
I’d be perfectly happy with Byrd in LF next season as I think the Cubs need to release Soriano if they can’t trade him. He’s just taking up a roster spot at this point.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I tend to think so too. I don’t see any reason they’d begin the season with Jackson at the big league level. It’s not as if he can’t work on something in the minors and getting that 7th year of service time is far more important than 5 to 6 weeks in April and early May. Brett Jackson shouldn’t see CF at Wrigley until late May or early June.[/quote]They changed the Super Two eligibility in the new CBA, I’m guessing they’d have to hold Brett Jackson back beyond June then? Do you know when the cutoff is?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’d be perfectly happy with Byrd in LF next season as I think the Cubs need to release Soriano if they can’t trade him. He’s just taking up a roster spot at this point.[/quote]Instead of releasing him, why not just make Byrd the regular LF once Brett Jackson is called up and move Soriano to the bench as the primary pinch-hitter?
I just have major issues with throwing that much money away even though I understand it’s a sunk cost.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]They changed the Super Two eligibility in the new CBA, I’m guessing they’d have to hold Brett Jackson back beyond June then? Do you know when the cutoff is?[/quote]Super Two status is of less concern to me. I just want that 7th year. Early to mid May. The difference in cost for a Super 2 isn’t that much unless we’re talking about a Tim Lincecum and I don’t think we’d care too much if Brett Jackson is making big time bucks early in his career. It would mean he’s damn good.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I tend to think so too. I don’t see any reason they’d begin the season with Jackson at the big league level. It’s not as if he can’t work on something in the minors and getting that 7th year of service time is far more important than 5 to 6 weeks in April and early May. Brett Jackson shouldn’t see CF at Wrigley until late May or early June.[/quote]
I thought I saw either KG or KLaw tweet something that there’s no chance BJax starts the season with the Cubs (as with all KG tweets, take them for what they are worth). I forgot/don’t know how the CBA changes affect service time and things along those lines, though.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Instead of releasing him, why not just make Byrd the regular LF once Brett Jackson is called up and move Soriano to the bench as the primary pinch-hitter?
I just have major issues with throwing that much money away even though I understand it’s a sunk cost.[/quote]There are better back-ups. Off the top of my head I’d rank the current Cubs outfielders something like this: Byrd, DeJesus, Jackson (those 3 in any order), Sappelt, Campana, Soriano.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I thought I saw either KG or KLaw tweet something that there’s no chance BJax starts the season with the Cubs (as with all KG tweets, take them for what they are worth). I forgot/don’t know how the CBA changes affect service time and things along those lines, though.[/quote]It affects super-two status, but no changes were made to the requirement of 6 years of MLB service time before being eligible to file for free agency. Let’s say Jackson came up in early May like Castro did. Actually, let’s just use Castro as an example since he’ll be a super-two after 2012.
2010: league minimum (pro-rated)
2011: league minimum
2012: league minimum
2013: $3.5 million
2014: $5 million
2015 $7.5 million
2016: $10 million
Total cost is $27.33 million over 7 seasons.
Let’s instead say they called him up in early June so he wouldn’t be super-two.
2010: league minimum (pro-rated)
2011: league minimum
2012: league minimum
2013: league minimum
2014: $5 million
2015 $7.5 million
2016: $10 million
The total there is about $24.2 million.
The first way is $3.9 million per season over 7 years while the second way is $3.5 million per season. It would of course be nice to have the additional $3 million over 7 years, but I don’t care that much about it. In my opinion, getting the 7th year is what is important. If you’re a small market team then you try to get 3+ years at league minimum by avoiding super-two status.
mb21Quote Reply
The super-two issue is really only an issue in my opinion when we’re talking about a guy like Tim Lincecum. At the same time, you don’t care too much about it since he’s so damn good. For the average player coming up I just don’t think it’s an issue. Certainly not for the Cubs in my opinion.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]There are better back-ups. Off the top of my head I’d rank the current Cubs outfielders something like this: Byrd, DeJesus, Jackson (those 3 in any order), Sappelt, Campana, Soriano.[/quote]That’s kind of sad. I wonder if a team is willing to just take 60% or so of Soriano’s contract with the stipulation that the Cubs get nothing in return except for salary relief.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
No way, RC. If the Cubs trade Soriano they’re going to be sending at least 75% of the money left on the contract and they will get nothing in return. I don’t think there’s a team in baseball that would take Soriano if the Cubs gave them $45 million. That would be 3 years and $9 million they’d be on the hook for. That’s a complete waste of money. I actually think the Cubs could send along all $54 million and they still get nothing in return. I’d bet the other team then releases Soriano.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]No way, RC. If the Cubs trade Soriano they’re going to be sending at least 75% of the money left on the contract and they will get nothing in return. I don’t think there’s a team in baseball that would take Soriano if the Cubs gave them $45 million. That would be 3 years and $9 million they’d be on the hook for. That’s a complete waste of money. I actually think the Cubs could send along all $54 million and they still get nothing in return. I’d bet the other team then releases Soriano.[/quote]
Yeah, I can see it being an expensive gamble but I feel like Soriano can give you at least a win in each of those three seasons even if he sucks that bad. But I also don’t want him taking up dead space, so if they’re going to eat the $54MM or however much is left, I understand.
I think they probably let Soriano play a few Spring Training games to see if he has anything left before releasing him though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/12/28/2666278/we-need-better-arguments-for-keeping-edgar-martinez-out-of-the-hall
MishQuote Reply
For no reason whatsoever, Batman fights a shark with a lightsaber.
MishQuote Reply
Hi, this is my first post.
My opinion when Theo was hired and spoke of a “Cubs way” was that it would include things other than stats; iow, personality and character type. Marlon Byrd is a nice fellow with some interesting quirks. As is Matt Garza. I expect them both to be traded. If Theo is aware of what went down between Randy Wells and the grounds crew last year, I’d expect him to be traded also.
I believe Soriano will be with the team the entire 2012 season.
Trace ElliotQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]For no reason whatsoever, Batman fights a shark with a lightsaber.
Aquaman was in the john.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Trace Elliot]Hi, this is my first post.
My opinion when Theo was hired and spoke of a “Cubs way” was that it would include things other than stats; iow, personality and character type. Marlon Byrd is a nice fellow with some interesting quirks. As is Matt Garza. I expect them both to be traded. If Theo is aware of what went down between Randy Wells and the grounds crew last year, I’d expect him to be traded also.
I believe Soriano will be with the team the entire 2012 season.[/quote]
Boston had alot of big personality types.
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]Boston had alot of big personality types.[/quote]I wonder if Theo will allow fried chicken and beer in the Cubs clubhouse.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Fuzzy Zoeller]I wonder if Theo will allow fried chicken and watermelon in the Cubs clubhouse.[/quote].
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Trace Elliot]Hi, this is my first post.
My opinion when Theo was hired and spoke of a “Cubs way” was that it would include things other than stats; iow, personality and character type. [/quote]
I didn’t get that at all. Did he use the term “Cubs Way”? If so, I think he’s talking about a development philosophy rather than personality types.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Hi,
My name is Sports Panties………
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Trace Elliot]If Theo is aware of what went down between Randy Wells and the grounds crew last year, I’d expect him to be traded also.
[/quote]?
GBTSQuote Reply
This is the closest mention of Randy Wells and grounds crew I could locate:
http://www.theheckler.com/2011/02/16/randy-wells-wants-people-to-know-he%E2%80%99s-still-on-the-cubs/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]This is the closest mention of Randy Wells and grounds crew I could locate:
http://www.theheckler.com/2011/02/16/randy-wells-wants-people-to-know-he%E2%80%99s-still-on-the-cubs/%5B/quote%5DSomehow, I don’t think that’s it.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]No way, RC. If the Cubs trade Soriano they’re going to be sending at least 75% of the money left on the contract and they will get nothing in return. I don’t think there’s a team in baseball that would take Soriano if the Cubs gave them $45 million. That would be 3 years and $9 million they’d be on the hook for. That’s a complete waste of money. I actually think the Cubs could send along all $54 million and they still get nothing in return. I’d bet the other team then releases Soriano.[/quote]
I, apparently, am completely worthless and clueless when it comes to tracking info about WAR wOBA etc. What is Soriano projected for in 2012? A win pays 5 million, correct? just trying to value soriano this year and next and see what the dollar amount the cubs would have to eat to get just a warm body for the system.
Soriano has value, surplus trade value may not be there. I have to believe that some team surely looks at him and sees him as a stronger option than they have in LF or DH or hell, even 1B (though that one may be a stretch). Especially just looking at talent and not money. So anyone who can help direct to where I can find these, or how one figures someones WAR value would be greatly appreciated.
Snyds01Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Somehow, I don’t think that’s it.[/quote]I’m open to your ideas.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Trace Elliot]Hi, this is my first post.
My opinion when Theo was hired and spoke of a “Cubs way” was that it would include things other than stats; iow, personality and character type. Marlon Byrd is a nice fellow with some interesting quirks. As is Matt Garza. I expect them both to be traded. If Theo is aware of what went down between Randy Wells and the grounds crew last year, I’d expect him to be traded also.
I believe Soriano will be with the team the entire 2012 season.[/quote]
Uhhh, what happened with Randy Wells and the grounds crew?
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
lulz
http://www.theheckler.com/2011/12/28/cause-of-wrigley-field-fire-determined-to-be-theo-trying-to-burn-sorianos-contract/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Hey! Me and b got a shout out from Tango…as did everyone who every posted on his blog in 2011.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/thank_you_for_2011/
MishQuote Reply
I haven’t felt so humbled since 2005, when I was Time Magazine’s Person of the Year. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1570810,00.html
ACTQuote Reply
2006, I mean.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Snyds01]I, apparently, am completely worthless and clueless when it comes to tracking info about WAR wOBA etc. What is Soriano projected for in 2012? A win pays 5 million, correct? just trying to value soriano this year and next and see what the dollar amount the cubs would have to eat to get just a warm body for the system.
Soriano has value, surplus trade value may not be there. I have to believe that some team surely looks at him and sees him as a stronger option than they have in LF or DH or hell, even 1B (though that one may be a stretch). Especially just looking at talent and not money. So anyone who can help direct to where I can find these, or how one figures someones WAR value would be greatly appreciated.[/quote]Oliver has him at 0.0 WAR and that includes him being worth 1 run on defense. The fans and Bill James project about 1.5. CAIRO has him at 1.2. Basically 1.0 average and all of them are using a defensive number that I don’t think too many people would believe he’s worth. If you move him to DH you cost him .5 wins per season. I could buy him being worth .5 WAR next year as a DH, but players get worse by .5 WAR so by 2013 he’s a replacement level player.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Hey! Me and b got a shout out from Tango…as did everyone who every posted on his blog in 2011.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/thank_you_for_2011/%5B/quote%5Di just missed the top 15, but I only started using my real name there sometime in the last year.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/matt-garza-talks-heating-up.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]Boston had alot of big personality types.[/quote]
http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com/2010/04/alot-is-better-than-you-at-everything.html
fang2415Quote Reply
I still don’t get how Edwin Jacksons market is SO quiet. Still young and has decent stuff. Hoping The cubs sign him after trading Garza. Inning eater with some upside remaining and shouldn’t need a huge contract.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]For no reason whatsoever, Batman fights a shark with a lightsaber.
uncle daveQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/matt-garza-talks-heating-up.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29[/quote]
I was just doing some looking at that. They mention that all three pitchers have 4 control years left, and I am sure there is a value designated to those years, and Garza has 2.
Gonzalez and an organizational filler pitcher (24y/o in A+) got the A’s the Nat’s 3,4 and 9 (#72 on 2011 top 100) prospects and a major league bullpen arm (first season).
Latos got the Pads the Reds 3 (#73 on 2011 top 100),4 and 10 prospects as well as a major league starter who was worth -1.0 WAR last year.
Cahill and a major league reliever (Breslow) got the A’s the D-backs 4th prospect (#33 on 2011 top 100) a first year reliever and a first year RF.
So what does this equate to as a good package for Garza based on what has been paid for Latos, Cahill and Gonzalez? To me it appears a top 100 prospect and a player with about one year of service time is a good place to start.
Snyds01Quote Reply
[quote name=Snyds01]I was just doing some looking at that. They mention that all three pitchers have 4 control years left, and I am sure there is a value designated to those years, and Garza has 2.
Gonzalez and an organizational filler pitcher (24y/o in A+) got the A’s the Nat’s 3,4 and 9 (#72 on 2011 top 100) prospects and a major league bullpen arm (first season).
Latos got the Pads the Reds 3 (#73 on 2011 top 100),4 and 10 prospects as well as a major league starter who was worth -1.0 WAR last year.
Cahill and a major league reliever (Breslow) got the A’s the D-backs 4th prospect (#33 on 2011 top 100) a first year reliever and a first year RF.
So what does this equate to as a good package for Garza based on what has been paid for Latos, Cahill and Gonzalez? To me it appears a top 100 prospect and a player with about one year of service time is a good place to start.[/quote]I looked at the trade value Latos has shortly after he was traded and it was almost exactly twice as much as Garza. So whatever Latos got (and probably Gonzalez), just cut it in half and that’s what we can expect. Hopefully they get more, but I wouldn’t count on it.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Trace Elliot]Hi, this is my first post.
My opinion when Theo was hired and spoke of a “Cubs way” was that it would include things other than stats; iow, personality and character type. Marlon Byrd is a nice fellow with some interesting quirks. As is Matt Garza. I expect them both to be traded. If Theo is aware of what went down between Randy Wells and the grounds crew last year, I’d expect him to be traded also.
I believe Soriano will be with the team the entire 2012 season.[/quote]The Cubs Way will include things other than stats. It’s nothing more than a philosophy, which all organizations have. You can’t rely on numbers 100%. You have to also rely on the scouting department. I’m not sure anything can be read into what Theo meant other than they were instilling a philosophy quite similar to the ones in Boston and San Diego. I don’t think any of us know what it means. If a player is league average and has clubhouse issues they probably stay away. If he’s well above average with clubhouse issues they won’t (see Boston). I’m not sure this is any different than any other team. Personally, I thought all the talk about The Cubs Way was nothing more than an attempt to get the fans excited. It didn’t and still doesn’t tell us anything.
Care to elaborate on the Randy Wells incident you’re speaking of?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]I didn’t get that at all. Did he use the term “Cubs Way”? If so, I think he’s talking about a development philosophy rather than personality types.[/quote]Yes, he used the phrase The Cubs Way about 9 zillion times in his introductory press conference and discussions he had after it. I agree. It’s nothing more than a development philosophy. We have a decade worth of information regarding these two and how they’ve run an organization. We know they have not stayed away from those with clubhouse issues. We can’t say that will continue, but based on what we know there’s no reason to think it won’t. There’s also no reason to think they won’t try to create the best atmosphere possible, but winning is priority number 1 (after the rebuild).
mb21Quote Reply
Another reliever trade, this time between Oakland and Boston:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/red-sox-acquire-andrew-bailey.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
MLBTR updates saying the Cubs and Blue Jays are in discussions. Also lists the Yankees as a viable trade partner.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Blue Jays have a nice system.
dylanjQuote Reply
If Trace Elliot never returns to give us the details of this Randy Wells story, I’m just going to assume that he did the most vile, disturbing thing with the grounds crew imaginable.
GBTSQuote Reply
Randy Wells mows my lawn.
RodrigoQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]Blue Jays have a nice system.[/quote]
Blue Jays were decimated by west nile virus, but have since recovered.
GWQuote Reply
Is Montero not a legit 1B option? I’d just target him and some pitcher with some potential and do that for Garza. Seems like Thoyer want to get someone they can flip for Rizzo.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Seems like Thoyer want to get someone they can flip for Nolasco.[/quote].
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish].[/quote]
indeed
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/matt-garza-trade-talks-heating-up.html
mb21Quote Reply