Some Cubs fans entered the season with relatively high expectations for Bryan LaHair. Others weren't optimistic at all. I was somewhere in between. I was fairly certain LaHair's numbers were so damn good at AAA that it indicated he should probably be about a league average ballplayer at the MLB level. To this point we've all been wrong.
MLB's best hitters can be separated into a few groups right now (the numbers here are through Monday's games). One group has David Wright, Paul Konerko, Carlos Gonzalez and Derek Jeter. The next group has David Ortiz and Josh Hamilton. The best group has Bryan LaHair and Matt Kemp. the reason I distributed these into groups was to highlight the differences. There is a considerable drop in 2012 wOBA (and wRC+) after Kemp and LaHair. There is also another sizable drop after Ortiz and Hamilton. I could have included several other names with the first group, but chose only to name four players instead.
Kemp has wOBA/wRC+ of .532/247. Next best is LaHair at .523/234. If we were to look at WAR instead, LaHair's 1.9 falls to 6th best in MLB, but consider two things: LaHair plays 1st base and has 20-35 fewer plate appearances than all those around him. Matt Kemp's 25 leads the way by 0.5 WAR.
The start to LaHair's season has been unreal. It's not at all unreasonable to think that LaHair may actually represent the NL as the starting 1st baseman in the all-star game. Among NL 1B, LaHair has .7 fWAR more than the next best (Joey Votto). Over the next couple months it's more than likely that Votto will out-perform LaHair, but he's already put himself in a good position to at least make the team and perhaps even start the game*. The Cubs could be the worst team in history to have 4 all-stars (LaHair, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija).
* It was pointed out in the comments that LaHair would never get the start over Votto due to the fan voting and I had completely forgotten that's how the teams were set up.
LaHair now has a .361 rest of season ZiPS projection meaning he's projected to be worth an additional 2.1 WAR the rest of the season. That's basically equal to the offensive production that Derrek Lee provided in 2004, 2006 and 2006. Overall it's obviously not as good as Lee, but not that far off either. LaHair isn't know for his defense like Lee was though.
We've already looked at when the Cubs may consider calling Anthony Rizzo up, but the bigger question now is how you can call him up and keep LaHair in the lineup. You're not going to replace LaHair with Rizzo. The Cubs have a few options. They could move LaHair to LF or trade him. Or they could trade Rizzo. I don't see them trading Rizzo. So the Cubs actually have a couple options: move LaHair to LF or trade him.
The smartest thing to do would be to release Alfonso Soriano and stick LaHair in LF, but let's say they decide they want to trade him. Let's assume it would happen around the deadline so LaHair could probably be expected to provide another 1 WAR after that. LaHair isn't even arbitration eligible until the 2015 season and is under club control through 2017. We could estimate LaHair's value based on the average aging of a player and his current value.
- 2012 (last 2 months): 1 WAR
- 2013: 2.5 WAR
- 2014: 2.0 WAR
- 2015: 1.5 WAR
- 2016: 1.0 WAR
- 2017: 0.5 WAR
- Total: 8.5 WAR
We have to estimate his salary based on that information.
- 2012: .1 million
- 2013: .5
- 2014: .5
- 2015: 3
- 2016: 5
- 2017: 6
- Total: $15.1 million
If we estimate the average win value on the low side of about $5.5 million that means LaHair's surplus trade value is approximately $31 million, give or take. In terms of value that's basically a top 10 hitting prospect, but LaHair isn't going to bring that much in return. At least it's difficult to see that happening anyway. I think it's safe to say the Cubs could probably trade LaHair for something valuable, but I'd also say they might be better off keeping him.
Comments
LaHair will never start the AS game because the fans will not vote him in over Votto. He could very well get in though, since Freddie Freeman and Lance Berkman are probably the next two best first baseman in the NL, and Berkman is hurt.
Dempster is going to get punished for not winning. If his ERA normalizes at all, he’ll get screwed.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I also think the Cubs are better off keeping LaHair until at least the trade deadline next year, especially if he can make the transition to LF eventually when Rizzo gets here. It will build up a bigger sample at which Jed can point and say “This is how good this guy is” when talking to other teams. LaHair is still very much a big variable. We have more confidence in his recent major league numbers because it was similarly backed up by minor league numbers, but that is not the same as going through the rigors of an entire major league season and making all of the adjustments that are necessary to be a consistent quality player at this level.
Hell, if he keeps up anything close to this kind of hitting, his value will be through the roof by next year.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Give him a 4/100 extension as he turns 30, Philly would jump all over that.
BerseliusQuote Reply
LaHair might make the AST based on his really amazing start. Not likely, but possible. Whether he starts over Votto, I doubt it.
joshQuote Reply
NL First basemen other than LaHair
ATL – Freddie Freeman
WAS – Adam LaRoche
NYM – Ike Davis
FLA – Gaby Sanchez
PHI – Ty Wigginton
STL- Matt Carpenter/Lance Berkman
CIN – Joey Votto
HOU – Carlos Lee
PIT – Casey McGehee
MIL – Mat Gamel
LAD – James Loney
SFG – Aubrey Huff/Brandon Belt
ARI – Paul Goldschmidt
COL – Todd Helton
SDP – Yonder Alonso
Votto is in. I figure 2 more will go from the group of Helton, Freeman, LaHair, LaRoche.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I forgot about the voting. Shows how much I pay attention to that shit. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Agreed. For what it’s worth, I don’t think he’ll have much trouble shifting to LF. He’s played plenty of OF in his career. I’m sure he’s better at 1st base, but there’s just no way I’d replace LaHair with Rizzo right now. Not when you’ve got Soriano in LF.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
It kind of depends on how many Chicago fans decide to vote the full 25 times.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
LaRoche? I always saw him as Mediocre. Wait, which one is Adam, which one is Andy? I guess it doesn’t matter.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
That’s so stupid. Just call my vote 25 votes. They’re just trying to ring up page hits.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I think Andy is right-handed, plays more positions, and sucks more.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Yeah and I don’t know who has the time or patience to vote 25 times. I don’t even have it to vote once.
mb21Quote Reply
I’d definitely want to keep him because I don’t think we’d get fair value in a trade (at least this year). And if the plan is to compete in 2013 or 2014, he could be a big part of the plan.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Hudson and Maholm matched pitch for pitch (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
Your vote doesn’t matter as much as the fan who has the dedication to vote 25 times.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ jtsunami:
I was going to suggest that he can be this generation’s version of Matt Stairs. He just needs to grow an awesome moustache.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
No comparison between the two. Adam has had a nice career while Andy has had to fight for a bench spot.
GWQuote Reply
@ jtsunami:
I feel the same way. The Cubs won’t get shit for him. He’s a 30-year-old 1B. Might as well keep him and try to negotiate a low price until he drops off in production. He could at least be a nice placeholder for a couple years, and if he has streaks like this off and on, all the better.
joshQuote Reply
@ GW:
Probably, but damned if I can ever remember which is which.
joshQuote Reply
I must have missed the part where Maholm has three wins already.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
josh wrote:
If he is under club control until 2017 (when he is what, 34?) Why would we have to negotiate a low price with him. I could see the only reason to pay him (if he keeps performing) is to “be nice” and pay him a little bit for overperforming.
But that isn’t how it works unfortunately. It isn’t like Soriano is giving back money for underperforming.
I guess LaHair could hold out for more money or pull a Matt Forte and complain that he isn’t being paid enough.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I had no idea how long he was under club control. There you go. To me you just keep him. Obviously, if someone offers you something ridiculous, you take it and laugh your way to the bank.
joshQuote Reply
What I’m saying boils down to: I don’t think anyone will give up anything for him. Trading him for nothing is pointless.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Adam is not a bad player when he’s healthy. He’s been particularly good this year early on as he pretty much carried the Washington offense until the Bryce cavalry arrived. He’s got an OPS of .954 at the moment. i figure that will go down, but so will LaHair’s.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ josh:
Agreed. If we think his production is sustainable, we keep him. If we don’t and we get a good offer, then trade him. I don’t see why we would think it isn’t and someone else would think it is though.
The teams that would probably give us the most are those that need him to push them over the edge to make the playoff push. But I think we have that same need (
left handedslugger) too.WaLiQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
True. Of course, Bryce will probably make the ASG, despite others being more deserving (in terms of production). There’s a lot of name recognition that goes on, and it’s not like Votto has been bad.
joshQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
What they really need to do is convince the Orioles to take Soriano.
joshQuote Reply
Damn. Bad send?
joshQuote Reply
That was a bad send. Castro was clearly winded by the time he neared 3rd and Heyward has a strong arm.
mb21Quote Reply
That sounded like an exciting TOOTBLAN on Gameday.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It’s very difficult to figure out LaHair’s trade value due to him not excelling at the MLB level until now, but he’s cheap and expected to be pretty good at this point so he definitely has some value.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
The possibility of the inside the park home run was exciting, but by the time Castro was within 10 feet of 3rd base it was unlikely. It was nowhere near close at home. Uggla has a strong arm and once he got that throw it was all over. It would have taken a terrible throw for Castro to score.
Oh well.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I think it’ll be interesting to see what they do with him either way.
joshQuote Reply
I just realized we’re not losing.
joshQuote Reply
The Cubs offense is even worse than I thought it would be. Just terrible.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
For the record, Uggla is an error machine.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
It has been suggested that Castro wasn’t running hard out of the box. I couldn’t tell from the replay.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
There was a pretty good chance they’d throw it over his head. I mean, talking straight probability here.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Looked like he got out of the box fine. The throw beat him by about 10 feet. It was up the line, but I don’t think it would have mattered anyway. Bad send.
joshQuote Reply
Maholm might need one more scoreless inning and then he’ll have his ERA dip below 4.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=E7Mvqxya0MU
GWQuote Reply
Cubs so impatient…no wonder Hudson hasn’t had to break a sweat.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oooh, a run!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Of course it was batted in by LaHair (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
Good day for Maholm. 7 IP, 3 K, 3 H, 3 BB, 0 ER
Season ERA 4.05
WaLiQuote Reply
Break up the Cubs
BerseliusQuote Reply
Yeah, they looked great this homestand. Let’s see if they can keep their heads above water on the road.
Maholm is 4-2? I can only recall like 3 starts.
joshQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
There’s a decent chance that LaHair ends up with close to 50% of the Cubs total HR’s. That tells you something about him…and the rest of the Cubs
srbutch5Quote Reply
this teams pitching is just damn good. Cubs to have 5 all stars?
Lahair, Garza, Castro, Shark, Demps?
5 good bananas the rest suck
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
also i like how it appears the cubs are always positioned properly on defense.
If this team is within 6 come june i would like to bring up Rizzo and Jackson and try to go for it..
DeJesus
Jackson
Castro
Lahair
Soto
Rizzo
Stewart
Barney
Why not… Lets see what happens.. Holy fuck is that left handed though
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
You’re forgetting the stablizing influence of Joe Mather and Reed johnson, bubs
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Mather has been solid. VEry good 25th banana
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
LaHair’s new nickname —> “In play, no out(s)”
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/player-has-nickname-in-play-no-outs/
MishQuote Reply
Just checked out the boxscore to today’s game.
Random thoughts:
Both teams combined for just 6 strikeouts and 9 hits.
Castro now has as many triples as walks this year.
LaHair saw 5 pitches the entire game.
Despite the lack of strikeouts, Dolis clearly has the closer mentality (for now).
ACTQuote Reply
The Cubs only saw 83 pitches today as a team.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oh, and Castro has a knack for running himself into outs before LaHair gets a chance to drive him in. It’s infuriating. LaHair should have way more RBI’s given his numbers.
ACTQuote Reply
Mish wrote:
Sure it’s not “In play, run(s)”?
Jtsunami1Quote Reply
@ ACT:
The vortex of suck in the 1-and-2-holes isn’t helping, either.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
That is frustrating. You have a guy hitting as well as LaHair, you want to give him opportunities. This was the coach’s fault. Bad send.
joshQuote Reply
@ Jtsunami1:
I agree.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Hey now, DeJesus is getting on base!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Did Kerry Wood really blame the defense last night?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
The Cubs’ current no. 1 and 2 hitters both have an OBP around .370. Of course, they had Barney there earlier.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
See also “Stewart, Ian — ineffective”
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I definitely think that coaching is part of the problem. For instance, in the Cardinals series, Starlin should not have had the green light to steal against the Garcia/Molina battery. That was idiotic.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Wait, was that because of the seeing-eye grounder? I thought he walked the bases loaded.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
It’s been better since Campana’s been up, but he’s not much of an OBP guy, so this will even out soon.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Wood kinda throws the defense under the bus here, before he gets pissed at someone and walks off. I’ll take bets on who that person was…
http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-talk/Irrelevant-dude-Wood-snaps-at-reporter-a?blockID=704614&feedID=661
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Did he? If Zambrano did that the media and fans would have thrown a fit.
mb21Quote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
He said he made good pitches last night, thought he made a good pitch to Uggla, then “turned around and we had that shift on, so…” Bullshit. Just…bullshit.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Can they release Wood, or would that be like franchise suicide?
I imagine they pitch him a couple more times to see if he can get into a rhythm but I can’t see them picking up the option and I also don’t think they can trade him at all (NTC etc).
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Aroldis Chapman’s line so far: 15.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 27 K
He’s pretty good.
ACTQuote Reply
I know FG publishes a lot of crap, but the latest piece on pitcher aging and velocity is pretty cool. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/pitcher-aging-curves-maintaining-velocity/
ACTQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I don’t think there would be much consternation over a move like that. He’s plainly not up to par.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
That sounds like a good two or three starts.
Wait, you say he’s a reliever?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/castro-wont-talk-long-term-deal-during-season.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Cubs sent just 26 batters to the plate today. I wonder when the last time that happened in a 9 inning game was.
JQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ J:
Not only a 9-inning game, but one they won. But wait, they didn’t bat in the bottom of the 9th, so that’s a minimum of 24. And there were a lot of GDPs.
joshQuote Reply
A lot is like 2 in this case, I think.
joshQuote Reply
It’s weird that MLB doesn’t have a sick leave policy. The Cubs basically had to cut Blake DeWitt because of the flu. Seems like with a doctor’s confirmation, or maybe limit a team to 2 3-day sick leaves for the entire team all year or something like that.
joshQuote Reply
Just noticed this: Dempster, Zambrano, and Lilly are all in the top 10 in ERA.
ACTQuote Reply
@ josh:
The minimum is 25. You have to score a run to not bat in the bottom of the 9th. So one over the minimum must be incredibly rare.
JQuote Reply
@ J:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/05/09/cubs-pull-off-an-oddity-a-win-with-only-26-plate-appearances/
2007.
MishQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
So far, Adam Dunn has 8 doubles, 10 homers, and just 9 singles. In other words, he’s back to his old self.
ACTQuote Reply
I’m pumped about LaHair, and agree his true talent level (at least for this year) is higher than we thought preseason. I’m still concerned about his K rate, and while the fact that he’s earned more PA”s vs. lefties is good, it probably also means he’ll continue to K alot. 30% is too high, which is what keeps being repeated about Jackson.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ J:
Good call. He’d faced the minimum through 6 or 7 thanks to a TOOTBLAN and a timely double play or two.
joshQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
Not to mention the entirely unsustainable .510 BABiP and .384 ISO (by way of reference, that’s .053 higher than Pujols best-ever single-season ISO).
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Uh, yeah, what they said. The guy was pitching well, no doubt about it.
joshQuote Reply
Was this much defensive shifting something done in SD by Hoyer or BOS by Theo? I kinda wonder if they’re experimenting with new ways to use some of the video data they’re collecting. Might as well in a rebuilding year. Everything you can do to save/add runs is good.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
I think a lot of it is Sveum. He’s a hardcore spray-chart guy. He even used it to defend the shifting:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That’s cool. Appears to be in part what’s helping with improving the Cubs admittedly SSS defensive improvement.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
I recall that they had a funky shift in Toronto where they took Jose Bautista away from 3B and put him in shallow RF and he made a nice grab on a flare to his spot. This past weekend I think the Dodgers used a shift by sending one of their OF into the hole between first and second as an extra infielder, but that was an endgame situation. I know the Brewers have been doing a shift against righty-pull guys like Soto for a while.
I’m a fan of creative shifts against certain types of players, it means someone’s paying attention.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
Yeah, Sveum is an odd duck. Very progressive in some respects, and totally backasswards in others.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
David Robertson is no Mo Rivera.
ACTQuote Reply
I like the idea of defensive shifts in theory, but am somewhat skeptical in practice. That is, I’d like to see actual data showing they do more good than harm. Then again, I’m sure teams do their fair share of number-crunching on this issue; I’m just not ready to take them on faith.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
There’s nothing in The Book on this?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I think in this case, its more than just traditionally understood “shifts”. Basically it seems like Sveum is using batted ball data to place defenders, and particularly when he’s doing that 90% rule thing, I’m guessing the numbers support that approach
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
90% ?!?
GWQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Looks like there’s an interesting conversation developing around shifts: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/dewan_responds/
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ GW:
His words, not mine. I wonder how many guys in the league actually put 90% into one field.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
There are other defenders to place as well so I’m guessing each one of them is placed at a “90%” spot?
I’m listening to Vin Scully doing the Giants-Dodgers game. Great matchup between Lincecum and Billingsley…at least it’d be great if Lincecum weren’t in some kind of weird slump.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Not Heath Bell blew a save; Broxton is damned close to doing the same.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Dude has 5 Ks in 2 innings. Seems like he’s doing okay today.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
…and a RBI!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Broxton did a nice Houdini-esque escape trick there.
ACTQuote Reply
Vin Scully > radar gun
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Bruce Bochy just facepalmed because the Giants TOOTBLANed their way out of a run (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Mattingly pinch-hit for Billingsley in the bottom of the fourth and it paid off. Billingsley is mad but the Dodgers are ahead.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Is there anyone playing for the Dodgers who isn’t the son of another MLB player?
uncle daveQuote Reply
Or is JHJ the son of the guy from the Talking Heads? Dunno.
uncle daveQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Based on the downward angle of Wood’s gaze, I’m guessing the irrelevant dude was short. Am I getting warm?
Marilyn HagertyQuote Reply
Irrelevant, dude.
Marilyn HagertyQuote Reply
@ GW:
I was wondering the same thing.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Dale was exaggerating for effect. I don’t think he meant 90% literally.
Marilyn HagertyQuote Reply
A photo I recently enjoyed…
Hats off!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Marilyn Hagerty:
Are we sure he was exaggerating? It’s not a big deal either way, but it just seemed like an unusually large number to throw out there. Either that or their zones are extremely large.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I’m 90% sure he was exaggerating
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I’d guess that Sveum meant something like this: if 90% of the balls on the ground are hit to the SS position over to 1st base then we’ll shift. He’s probably right. A guy like Carlos Pena probably has about 90% of his grounders (or more) from that position over. When you think about the shift, it’s not one zone, but the combination of several zones. Some of those zones don’t even matter (outfield fly balls). I don’t know the percentages, but I’d guess Sveum is right to shift for those players. All I know is that the Cubs have fielded balls this year that they’d never have fielded before. I’ve been pretty happy with the shifts. It’s one of the things I liked about the Brewers in recent years and I’m pretty sure that’s where Sveum got it. No team shifted as much as the Brewers did.
The Brewers haven’t been particularly good on defense (I don’t think) so it does make you wonder whether or not it’s a good thing to do. One team doesn’t prove anything though.
mb21Quote Reply
90% of this game is half mental.
/Yogi’d
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
I’m 90% sure he wasn’t. He may have just thrown a number out there to please the audience, but what he’s saying makes sense. Obviously it’s not 90% in one of the zones used for UZR or DRS, but you have more than one infielder covering more than one zone.
mb21Quote Reply
I’d guess that Carlos Pena hits 90% of his grounders between the 2nd base bag and 1st base. This is what I think Sveum means.
mb21Quote Reply
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/carlos-pena/hitchart/104110?q=carlos-pena
mb21Quote Reply
I’m pretty sure it was Juan Uribe they shifted against, right? I don’t know what math Sveum is using, but I don’t see any 90% rate anywhere: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/juan-uribe/hitchart/85881?q=juan-uribe
mb21Quote Reply
And Matt Kemp: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/matt-kemp/hitchart/408705?q=matt-kemp
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
They shifted against Uggla. That’s the one Wood got all pissy about.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
It’s not one of these zones for UZR
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Based on this I don’t see much need to shift for Uggla, but that’s just this season: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/dan-uggla/hitchart/364711?q=dan-uggla
The other part of this is how the pitcher pitches the guy. If you shift your defense to pull and your pitcher throws the ball away it defeats the purpose.
mb21Quote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
I read that recently and it points out something missing from much of the discussion on shifts: all the other plate appearances. I think it was ACT who said he’s not sure he buys the value of the shift and I understand that. I’m more inclined to think an organization knows what they’re doing since there’s not much research on the subject. If more research is done and shows it to be silly then I’ll change my opinion, but right now I’m giving the teams the benefit of the doubt.
mb21Quote Reply
There’s also this discussion that’s more recent: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/rays_shifts/
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Right, and Wood’s location was shit his entire outing. Pretty pisspoor to blame the defensive alignment when you’re not executing your pitches.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
That’s kind of where I’m at. I’m not sure if it’s some kind of fad or if these teams using shifts have some solid proprietary data backing them up.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2012/05/baseball-reference-com-war-explained-converting-runs-to-wins-baseball-reference-com/
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Agreed. Wood has never had very good control or command or whatever the hell you want to call it so I think you have to be careful shifting with him on the mound. It’s like shifting with Marmol on the mound. Marmol is just trying to throw a strike. He’s not throwing to a specific location.
Overall though, I’ve been pleased with the shifts and I think it’s silly for Wood to mention them in the way he did. If they haven’t helped him out yet, they will at some point. They’ve helped other pitchers out.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I dunno it looks like Uribe doesn’t hit it to 3rd base. So if you shift 3rd to SS, and SS over the 2B, then that covers more of where he hits. I’m not sure what shift they used though.
I like the shifts myself. I could see it having secondary effects like messing up the batter a bit if he tries to change his game to hit against it.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I think one of the things that’s changed in recent years is all the hit location data available. I’m not sure if or when Hit F/X is ever going to be available (maybe it already is to teams), but with all the stringers locating where the ball is hit they just have more information than ever before. The older and more traditional managers are leaving the game and people are putting hit charts in front of the younger ones and it becomes pretty obvious at that point. The question is whether or not the change in approach by the defense is outweighed by the change in approach by the hitter as Tango brought up.
mb21Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
Good point. That’s really all we need. If some lefty rarely shoots a grounder down the line to the opposite field there’s no reason to cover it.
I do wonder when these batters are going to take advantage of the one thing they can do to neutralize the shift: bunt. Carlos Pena did and he should probably do it more. If I was his manager I’d tell him to do it until the defense makes a change. That’s an easy hit and Pena is a good bunter. In today’s game there are few good bunters I wouldn’t be surprised if we see better bunters with these shifts.
mb21Quote Reply
Here’s a shift I recently enjoyed:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17259995&c_id=mlb
Makes the manager look like a genius when it works. And even if he had fielded it on the bounce it probably would still have been a 5-3 putout (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/5/10/3010822/the-unluckiest-pitcher-in-the-world
mb21Quote Reply
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I wouldn’t be surprised to see more teams do that with guys like Adam Dunn.
mb21Quote Reply
You’d need a relatively athletic 3rd baseman for that. It’s not like you could stick Aramis Ramirez in that position and expect him to catch anything that’s not hit directly at him. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
dj’s minor league shit has been posted: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-rockskew-grill.html
mb21Quote Reply
I forgot if it was BtBS or BPro that had the article (might have have been either) but they suggested that defenders be platooned in-game such that you put the best defender in the “90%” zone. I.e. take a good 2B who can also play 3B and put him in the second base spot against lefties but at 3B against righties, while the lesser defender occupies the hole that was just vacated by the better defender.
Sort of like in this game:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/FLO/FLO200908010.shtml
I don’t know if they have the video anymore but it amused me.
Rice CubeQuote Reply