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Jacoby Ellsbury's agent, Scott Boras, has said that he wants Carl Crawford money for his client. Crawford, who signed with the Red Sox after the 2010 season got $142 million over 7 years (that's the benchmark for Boras for his newest client). Is that a reasonable goal for Ellsbury? Some think so. I'm not sure I do.
Before that, here's why he might be worth as much or maybe even more than Crawford.
- Ellsbury, 2011-2013: .303/.356/.469, 15 HR, 35 SB, 4.9 WAR
- Crawford, 2008-2010: .297/.349/.454, 14 HR, 44 2B, 4.8 WAR
Boras thinks that because Ellsbury is a CF that it makes him more valuable, but that's already baked into the WAR calculations. That said, using rWAR, which was what was used in these calculations, it's fairly clear that Ellsbury is Crawford in terms of value.
The reason I think Ellsbury gets less is that it was rather well known at the time that the Yankees showed interest in Crawford in order to get the Red Sox to pay a higher price. It was well known by myself and berselius at least, that what the Red Sox gave Crawford was a rather large overpay. Some tried to rationalize the signing. "Boston is smart and so it must be." It wasn't. It was a bad signing at the time and it was only for that much because the Red Sox really really wanted Crawford and bought that the Yankees were interested.
This isn't likely to happen again. Theo is gone in Boston and the new front office hasn't been as eager to sink a ton of money into free agency. Neither has Theo since coming to the Cubs for what it's worth.
The Red Sox surely would like to have Ellsbury back, but they've got a limit on what they'll pay and they won't go over it. The Yankees also have interest, but that same fake out isn't going to work. It won't likely work anywhere else. The Cubs and Cardinals just don't have the same kind of rivalry.
Furthermore, the Carl Crawford contract has proven to be even more disastrous than I imagined it would be. Crawford has been terrible. It would be unfair to say that the same will happen to Ellsbury because it happened to Crawford. It could, but it could happen to anyone. It's more likely not going to happen though.
However, the Crawford contract and its horrible result is a poor example to use for Boras. Everyone in the game knows how awful it's worked out. Every GM in the game wants to avoid a contract like that with the exception of the Dodgers, but they have their own printing press so it's no big deal in LA. Not to mention, many knew it was a terrible contract at the time.
I won't be surprised if Ellsbury ends up getting a contract similar to Crawford. I don't think it happens, but it only takes one team. I think somewhere around 7 years for $110 million is more reasonable. I'd be happy if the Cubs got Ellsbury for $120 million over 7 years too. Anything over that and I think you're looking at a rate that Ellsbury just won't live up to. But if any team thinks he's worth nearly $150 million they should open a william hill betting account today!
I also think durability is more of a concern for Ellsbury and that almost always comes into play. Over the past 4 years, Ellsbury has missed nearly the entire 2010 season and half of the 2012 season. He also played in only 134 games this past year. Craword's fewest games played in the four years prior to leaving the Rays was 109. He played full seasons in each of the other seasons. Simply put, you could count on Crawford to play more in the future than you could Ellsbury at time of their free agency. That's got to cost Ellsbury some dollars.
Comments
Am I crazy or are there a couple places in here where you name-swapped Crawford and Ellsbury?
GBTSQuote Reply
There was, but that doesn’t mean you’re not crazy. Thanks for mentioning it. Think I fixed the two instances in which I made the error.
dmick89Quote Reply
Anyone know how the Auburn – ‘Bama game ended?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
What game?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
Auburn won because Alabama was dumb.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Heyman says Cano is down to $260 million, but that the Yankees remain about $100 million low on that. If Cano ends up getting a deal under $200 million, I’d be hesitant to pay Ellsbury $100 million.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
If Cano gets less than 200 million, Jay-Z should never get another client again.
AndrewQuote Reply
Alshon Jeffery is good at football
WaLiQuote Reply
Found out recently that all of the Dick’s Picks that I had (34 of the 36) were ruined (storage problem) and thanks to Al Gore’s interweb, I’ve just finished downloading all 36 of them.
Thanks Al.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Nice.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
No doubt. That’s a lot of music to have destroyed. I’m sure some of the discs would have worked, but it was a mess. We had a leak in our basement and it just happened to be right on top of that box. Oh well. Now I can listen to them all again, which will be nice.
Hey, ever listened to any of Dave’s Picks? Are they worth downloading?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Couldn’t you have just asked Mish for them?
SVBQuote Reply
So my Dad is in town and thus I’m watching NFL for the first time in quite a while.
Alex Smith’s receivers are failing him.
SVBQuote Reply