There are plenty of articles to link to regarding Kyle Hendricks’ desire to pitch past this season and how it won’t likely be with the Cubs. As well as no longer being an “only one team” Immaculate Grid selection, this is going to be the last piece of the 2016 World Series championship group saying goodbye. Kyle will come back to us in future Cubs Conventions and whenever they need a guest conductor, and perhaps he may one day serve as a pitching coach or some other capacity in the organization, but the days of him pitching effectively for the North Siders is over. Let’s instead remember him as he was, while we await what is to be his final start wearing the home team’s uniform.
Category: Better Know a Cub
PCA the Madman
There was probably a Tom Tango Twitter thread (or a blog even) that said that home run robberies were pretty much “routine catches” or whatever. I’m too lazy and disinterested to find it now, but after last night’s performance (particularly on defense), at least FanGraphs decided to give Pete Crow-Armstrong his due:
Despite having played just 106 games so far, Crow-Armstrong has produced 5.2 runs above average as a baserunner, which is eighth among all MLB players regardless of playing time. His 10.5 defensive runs rate fifth among all outfielders. (His bonkers Tuesday night alone was worth about a run and a half.) Extrapolating those numbers out to 550 plate appearances and 1,000 defensive innings brings the total to over 20 combined defensive and baserunning runs above average.
Via FanGraphs
If this embeds right, this is at least part of what spurred the attention:
I guess that’s routine for PCA? I mean we Cubs fans have known about him for a while now, and it’s really nice that he is deserving of the attention. Just an appreciation post, I’m sure he’ll do something chaotic and fun again before the season ends, so stay tuned.
Welcome Ben Brown
As you all know, Justin Steele got hurt and now a new guy gets his spot:
Naturally the Cubs will have their official social media tweet soon, but this has been confirmed by multiple Cubs beat folks so we should expect Ben Brown in uniform sometime soon, possibly even tonight if he got to town soon after Steele got off the field and into the training room.
Brown, of course, was the return in the David Robertson trade, and had impressed in the minors prior to his untimely injury right around when the Cubs left for London last season. He showed many bright spots this spring and there was an outside shot he would make the Opening Day roster, but now he gets his cup of coffee just two games into 2024.
The fact that they called him up right away instead of massaging some optionable moves suggests that the Cubs want to keep the possibility of Brown hopping into long relief as soon as tonight, and if they don’t need him, then he can pick up Steele’s next start. And although we like the Cubs pitching development these days, Brown is still technically unproven, so some restraint should be exercised with regard to our expectations even if we hope he just mows everyone down.
Good luck, kid!
UPDATE: The Cubs welcomed him too:
Jordan Wicks Was Pretty Good
Possibly an understatement 👀🔥⚾️
He looks like he could help you with your taxes and will too.
Re: the now legendary mound visit:
Welcome to the Cubs, Dansby Swanson
Yeah this is pretty officially official now:
And also out on the Wrigley Field marquee:
While the Cubs couldn’t swoop in and sign Carlos Correa too because Steve Cohen is a rich crazy bastard, this roster has a chance to be more respectable than the last one we were led to believe would also be respectable (spoiler: it was not, but at least they finished the season in a more entertaining fashion). There needs to be more additions, but the Cubs at least have changed the narrative somewhat to broadcast that they have money to spend and that they intend to compete in one of the worst divisions in baseball, as they well should. Now we wait for spring training and Opening Day to see what this team ends up doing and whether there will be motivation to add at the trade deadline for a change. Taking a wait and see approach.
Cover image thanks to Marquee Sports Network.
UPDATE: The Marquee folks have a bunch of these snippets up and I’m sure there will be a video soon, here’s Dansby on being able to work in the same town as the wife:
UPDATE AGAIN: Oh hai video
Allow Yourself a Modicum of Positivity
The Cubs officially announced the Jameson Taillon signing today:
It seems Taillon had a Zoom session with the beat folks that was also open to fans, so there’s a snippet here:
Taillon had a lot of nice things to say about his experience during the recruiting process, the excitement he felt with being able to work with the Cubs Pitch Lab and playing with the current Cubs and new Cub Dansby Swanson (I guess that’s unofficially official until they add Dansby to the roster), and just seems like he’s ready to have a good time, so I guess we should at least get some enjoyment out of this!
So I say it’s Christmas, Theo, it’s the time of miracles, so be of good cheer… and call me when you hit the last lock.
Addison Russell maybe fixed it
Starting pitching woes aside, this year has been extremely fun for Cubs fans. Something interesting – sort the Cubs in descending order of plate appearances on the year, and you have to get to the 11th player on the list (Tommy the Stella, 83) before you find one that is not above the league average in wRC+. Put another way, the Cubs (when at full health) will always have at least a league-average bat coming off the bench in a baseball game. At pretty much the exact half-way mark of the season, the Cubs already have 6 starters at 2 fWAR.
The 6th in that list is a shortstop by the name of Addison Russell, who is doing his best to erase the bad taste 2017 left in everybody’s mouth. First things first – I’m always going to have his personal issues in my head when thinking about Addison, which doesn’t allow me to see completely straight. That said, I obviously don’t have all the information, and I’m probably never going to have more information that I do now, so it’s not fruitful to think about it. Instead, let’s focus on the abysmal year Russell had at the plate in 2017. Russell dealt with injury, and those 50 games he missed manifested themselves in the 110 games he did play. He walked less (by 1.7%), he struckout more (by 1.0%), and he ended the season with a lower wOBA than even Jason Heyward (who has been another revelation this season).
In 2018, Addison has changed his hit profile completely. Prior to this season, Russell pulled around 42% of his batted balls, with around 40% of all balls in play being grounders. This year, he’s using the middle of the field a lot more (up 10% over last year), and he’s getting some more elevation on his bat (27% LD from 21% in his career up to 2018). Also, his plate appearances look the best that they ever have as a Cub. Russell is walking nearly 10% of the time, and his strikeouts are around 20%. Russell hasn’t had the power that he’s had before, so you worry that perhaps he’s giving up some power for contact. If that’s the case, though, it’s a tradeoff that has paid off. Russell currently has 38 points on the league average for on-base percentage – he’s never been able to do that over a whole year in his career.
If you look at baseball savant, you can see the uptick in plate discipline that has led to this outcome. Russell is swinging less in general, but he’s chasing at career-low rates. He’s also missing at less pitches (due to making contact with more pitches in the zone). Most encouragingly, he’s been swinging at “meatballs”, which implies at least weakly that he’s not just guessing at the plate (or that he’s guessing right).
Lastly, Russell has been avoiding getting killed on offspeed stuff. In 2017, All you had to do to get Russell out was get to 2 strikes and throw offspeed in the ZIP of the plate. He loved swinging and also rarely made contact. That hasn’t been the case this year – he’s shored that hole in his game for the most part. In fact, while last year Russell was basically the same hitter against power, finesse, or average pitchers, Russell has tuned up finesse pitchers this year.
It’s too early to say definitely that Russell is now a better-than-average hitter. There are promising signs, but they aren’t universally positive. His exit velocity is down this year. His statcast data implies that he’s been lucky this year. It’s also too early in the year to say with great certainty that his chase rate and contact rate is absolutely stable. That said, he passes the eye test, and there are many pieces of evidence that he passes the stats test also. Russell was always brought his glove to the stadium, and this year he’s brought the bat as well. The ship on Russell, MVP candidate has probably long sailed (if it ever existed in the first place), but championship teams absolutely require cost-controlled 3-win players, and Russell is on pace to be that this year and more.
The Cubs’ Secret Prospect (+ Gameday, Cubs/Sox, 5/11/2018)
In the 2016 MLB Draft, the Cubs didn't draft a single player until pick 104 (and I'm not telling you who that was until the end of this article – trivia. yay!). With the possible exception of that 3rd round draft pick, there are exactly zero players that you would expect to rise to the level of "MLB-prospect," and you'd be lucky to get one 5th-arm-out-of-the-bullpen or quad-A bench player out of all of them.
That's what makes what Zack Short is doing all the more remarkable. Drafted in the 17th round, right before Matt Frawley but right after Dillon Drabble, Short profiled as an "organizational filler" guy. The pride and joy of Sacred Heart University, Short first took an assignment to Rookie ball, where he literally reached base half the time he stepped up to the plate. A late-season cup in Eugene yielded similar results, and he drew a South Bend assignment in 2017. He did well there in 300 PA and was promoted to Myrtle Beach, where he put up an eerily similar line.
In 2018, he's played exclusively in Tennessee. He's put up the same OPS and he did South Bend, now with a little less patience and a little more power. AA is usually the great filter for college bats; basically everyone at this level and above has some secondary offerings to be afraid of, so I consider it at least mildly meaningful that Short has succeeded here. The only problem with Short's game is the huge strikeout numbers (the first time he's had that problem in his career, but at the most meaningful time of his development). You can strikeout if you take walks and have power, so it's not completely disqualifying – and that's especially true if you can play shortstop.
Sometimes, scouting can miss the forest for the trees. Zack Short was a 22-year old draftee who went in the 17th round and didn't figure into any organizational plan beyond "we need bodies in the middle infield." At some point, demonstrating success at 5 different levels across 3 different seasons and nearly a thousand plate appearances means something about your ability to play professional baseball. Zack Short isn't a top prospect. He may never even reach the majors. That said, he's wildly overperformed expectations as a 17th-round 4-year college guy (who had no power in college!), and it's not crazy to think he'll be on a 40-man roster in 2019 for some MLB team (probably not the Cubs).
Cubs @ White Sox
Time: 1:20 PM CST
TV: NBC SCH, MLB Network (OOM)
Radio: 670
Cubs
BenZo RF
KB 3B
Rizz 1B
Baez 2B
Schwa LF
Willy C
Addy SS
The Happening CF
Ball 4 SP
White Sox
Delmonico LF
Garcia CF
Abreu 1B
Sanchez 2B
Palka RF
Castillo C
Davidson 3B
Anderson SS
Carson Fulmer SP
(the player was Tom Hatch)
Is it time to shake up the infield?
The Cubs' offense has been incredible this year. Among starters, the OPS+ for each starter, in descending order:
193
181
173
128
117
115 (Jason Heyward!)
67
44
The astute reader will note that there are two less-than-average bats in that lineup. The first is Anthony Rizzo, who has dealt with back issues this year and is, well, Anthony Rizzo.
The second is Addison Russell.
It's time to grapple with the fact that Addison Russell has literally never been a league average hitter in his career. His highest wOBA is .316. This year, it's .276 (a truly putrid mark). There's an acceptable level of production that a glove-first shortstop can have and still be very valuable – for instance, that 2016 mark of .316 led to a 3.3 fWAR season on the strength of a great defensive year. The current .217/.316/.290 slash line (good for a 76 wRC+) isn't cutting it.
That said, the cupboard isn't bare yet. Russell has been extraordinarily patient this year, with tons of walks and fewer strikeouts than ever. In fact, there’s a pretty compelling case that Russell has just been hit-unlucky. His LD% is unchanged and is spray chart is really funky for this season (normally Addy’s pull rate is around 40%, and this year it is 22%. All of that is now centered up). That is absolutely, 100%, not sustainable. Huge, abrupt changes in spray profile on this magnitude don’t happen. He also abruptly gained 15% of soft contact. Something is amiss here. His Statcast exit velo last year was 88.1 MPH and this year (so far) it is 86.8 MPH. It’s a slight change, but it is the difference between a slightly above average velo and a below average one.
When push comes to shove, it’s a sample size of just 20 games. It’s a fool’s errand to assign to much value to the last 20 games in a 423-game bucket. That said, it is Year 4 of the Addison Russell Experience, and Year 3 was worse than Year 2 and Year 4 looks worse yet. At the same time, Javy Baez has been crushing the ball and is more than capable than handling shortstop. Ian Happ, for all of his struggles offensively this seaosn, has still never been worse than Russell in any year of his (short) career and can play second base (albeit badly). It might be reasonable to shift Baez to SS full-time, and to have Russell get the majority of starts at 2B with Happ mixing in there and CF. The other option is to have Russell play SS when he starts, and have Baez move to SS and Happ go to 2B when he spells Russell (and all of this is predicated on Happ still being playable at second base – he did start there several times just last year).
In the end, the rational course of action is probably just to maintain the status quo. After 5 games this season, I literally proclaimed Addison Russell the best hitter on the team. Mike Trout may lead the country in fWAR (a traditional sign that sample sizes have been reached), but it is still incredibly early. Perhaps the point of this article is optimistic in that there are options if Addison continues to struggle (and I didn’t even mention Ben Zobrist).
Now, if only we could get a pitcher to get through 6 innings without walking 4 or 5 folks.
Victor Caratini is fairly interesting
In 2014, Willson Contreras was starting his 6th season in the Cubs minor league system. He was starting A+ ball for the first time ever. The previous year, in A ball, he hit .248/.320/.423, for a wRC+ of 97. He wasn't a horrible prospect, but he profiled as perhaps a backup catcher at the major league level, and one who might never get through the filter of AA. In 2015, his seventh (!) year of minor league ball, he hit .333/.413/.478, exploded onto the prospect scene, and hit even better the next year en route to a midseason callup. Now, Contreras is either the 2nd or 3rd most valuable position player in the Cubs' franchise, and there's a decent chance that he gets a 9-figure contract at some point in his career.
Who saw it coming? In 2013, Contreras (as a 20 year old, in fairness) had a .174 ISO, his highest pre-2015 mark in his career. He'd never walked in 10% of his plate appearances in a season he had more than 100 PA. It's hard to come up with players that are decidedly average for 6 YEARS and then explode for an insane, career-making line. In 2014, John Sickels DIDN'T LIST WILLSON CONTRERAS among his prospects (of which he named 37). Didn't have room for Contreras, while Mike Olt, Shawon Dunston Jr, and Josh Vitters still had some run left in them. In 2015, he wasn't on the list. In 2016, he was 4th.
Like Contreras, Victor Caratini has toiled in some anonymity in the Cubs system for awhile. Like Contreras, Caratini is a mostly catcher (Contreras played a little 1B and some thought he'd have to move there eventually, and Caratini may be a corner outfielder when it's all said and done). Caratini had some better years than Contreras in his first taste of the minors, but he was also much older. In Caratini's first 4 years, his high ISO was .140 (Braves rookie ball), and he was 19 in rookie ball (which is older than it looks). Caratini laid down a line of .342/.393/.558 in AAA last year, which led to him getting a late call-up (where he acquitted himself just fine: .254/.333/.356). Caratini was 15th in the Cubs 2015 Sickels list:
15) Victor Caratini, C, Grade C+: Age 21, stolen from the Braves in summer trade, shows excellent strike zone judgment and is a solid defender. Lack of home run power keeps him from higher ranking but he’s very interesting.
In 2016, he was 15th again:
15) Victor Caratini, C, Grade C+: Age 22, hit .257/.342/.372 with four homers, 49 walks, 75 strikeouts in 393 at-bats in High-A, tools to be a strong defender, good plate discipline, not much home run power.
He went to 10th before last season, and now Sickels has him 5th (and said he could have been 1st!)
5) Victor Caratini, C-1B, Grade B: Age 24, second round pick by Braves in 2013 from Miami Dade JC, traded to Cubs in 2014, hit .342/.393/.558 with 10 homers, 27 walks, 48 strikeouts in 292 at-bats in Triple-A, then .254/.333/.356 in 59 at-bats in the majors; switch-hitter with impressive feel for hitting, raw power not rated as special but had big production boost in ’16 with career-highs in most categories; has a good eye and walk totals should increase in time; defensive tools aren’t naturally outstanding but he’s developed into a steady and reliable receiver through hard work, also playable at first base; fits profile of player who has offensive surge in his late 20s. ETA 2018.
Among the "heavy lies the crown" problems that the Cubs have now is that there is just no spot for the Cubs to naturally include Caratini in 2018. He'll spend the season mostly in AAA, just like Jeimer Candelario did in 2017, and it'll be hard if not impossible for the Cubs to see what they have with him without an injury to either Anthony Rizzo or Willson Contreras. The 2014 Cubs are giving Victor Caritini 500 plate appearances because you just aren't that concerned about getting Beef Castle 500 PA.
If the Cubs have to go out and acquire somebody at the 2018 trade deadline, it's almost certainly going to be with pieces like Victor Caratini (who the Cubs stole from the Braves for Emilio Bonifacio, James Russell, and cash). A Victor Caratini for Pat Neshek trade basically writes itself.
It's awesome when the Cubs (or any team, really) stumbles upon a late bloomer. Caratini has been pretty much an org guy for his entire career, until his age-24 season. There, at catcher, he exploded offensively, and demanded the Cubs take notice. That's fairly interesting.