Category: Better Know a Cub

Better Know a Cub: Hector Rondon

The Rule V draft affected the Cubs likely more than any other team in baseball this year. Theo & Co. lost Starling Peralta in the major league portion, and Michael Burgess/Matt Cerda/Alvy Jimenez in the minor league portion.

However, it wasn’t all bad for the Cubs, as they landed a flamethrower in Hector Rondon. Will he stick? I think the chance is very good that he does.

Rondon was plucked out Venezuela by the Indians organization in 2006, and Hector had worked his way through the system relatively quickly for an 18-year old. He skipped A- and worked all the way up to AAA as a 21-year old, grabbing 11 starts of 4.00 ERA ball for Columbus in 2009. His line that year was very decent: 4.92 SO/BB with a 1.291 WHIP. If that was the whole story, Rondon would very likely be a starter for the Indians by now; unfortunately, that’s where Rondon’s injuries start. He had TJS in 2010, and then fractured the same elbow after recovering in 2011. Rondon hasn’t really pitched in the minors since, only getting 7 innings of work at the tail end of 2012. Scouts have liked what they’ve seen so far in the Venezuelan League so far, but injuries will dictate whether or not he has a future.

Pitch Selection

Rondon works in the low 90s with a fastball that occasionally touches 96. He has a decent changeup as well, as well as a poor slider that won’t play in the majors at this point. The lack of a breaking pitch pretty much forces him into a bullpen role, which is where he’ll play for the Cubs

Stuff

Rondon has consistenly shown very good control in the minor leagues, carrying a 1.9 BB/9 with an 8.1 K/9. The fastball can get hitters to swing and miss, and he can put the ball (generally) where he wants to. He could thrive in a true fireman role eventually but will probably see mopup/MR duties for the Cubs in 2012.

Summary

The way the Rule V draft works, the Cubs will need to keep Rondon either on the Major League roster or on the DL (only for a certain amount of time) for the whole season. His injuries will dictate whether that’s possible. If it is, the chance that Rondon sticks is very high. The Cubs could use a power pen arm that has legitimate #3 upside (if he develops a slider), and if the cost if essentially free, Theo & Co won’t pass that up.

Better Know a Cub: Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo has packed a lot of bags. Drafted in the 6th round out of Stoneman-Douglas HS, Rizzo has been a part of 3 different organizations in 6 years, being traded in both 2011 and 2012. He was an early riser, spending only 24 PA in Rookie Ball and only a season or so in A and A+ combined. His plate discipline and power stroke were enough to have him named the #75 prospect in 2011 and #47 in 2012.

His 2011 Major League debut was nothing short of terrible. His line was .141/.281/.242, good for an OPS+ of 51. He struck out at a 30.1% clip, and only hit 16% line drives. He had 153 terrible plate appearances and there was a very real worry he’d never put it together.

The Cubs dealt a promising power arm in Andrew Cashner for him, seeing as Jed Hoyer and Anthony Rizzo are probably in the same ka-tet, and Rizzo spent the first part of 2012 in AAA. After his call-up, things went a lot better for him: .285/.342/.463, with 15 HR in 368 PA. Which Rizzo can we expect going forward?

Offense

Rizzo features left-handed power and patience from at 1B. Last year, he had an OPS+ of 119, which is right around average for 3s. Most of his value is derived from his ability to both walk and get extra-base hits, though his 7.3% walk rate last year was lower than the league average of 8.1%. His BABIP last year was .310; that’s completely sustainable and the strongest reason to believe that his 2011 year was just fluky (his BABIP that year was a miserable .210).

Rizzo cannot hit lefties to save his life, with an OBP of .243; however, his first home run as a Cub was against a lefty (I was there :), one of my top-3 favorite games I’ve attended). Ideally, you’d sit him against lefties around half the time (there’s no need for a full platoon), and give Rizzo those days off. I think 135-140 games would be the ideal.

He’s also much better in day games than night games. That’s pretty cool, obviously; that’s very atypical and good for the Cubs. It’s also counter-intuitive to his home/away splits, which actually show him favoring road games.

I think Rizzo’s greatest chance to grow is by (surprise!) seeing more pitches. He saw 3.92 in 2011; just 3.64 last year. Some of that can be attributed to the absolute lack of protection he has, but he was batting 8th last year so you know he was getting attacked.

Oddly enough, his OPS after 2-1 counts is his lowest for any count (though it only occured 17 times). He’d much rather be looking at a 1-2 or even 0-2 count!

Defense

Rizzo was hailed as a defensive stalwart at first. He didn’t disappoint; he was a very good defensive first baseman, though he did make a few mistakes (to be expected from a 22-year-old). He’s got really nice footwork and is good at scooping (though he’s no Derrek Lee). He’s going to need to be agile, with Castro throwing his way!

Summary

I was very scared that Rizzo had a good chance of crashing and burning. 2011 was really, really ugly (significantly worse than Brett Jackson’s first ~150 PA). He came in this year and crushed, but then pitchers adapted to him. Many players never find a way to re-adjust, but give Rizzo all the credit in the world because he did. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling in the system, but he’s got potential to hit .310/.380/.530 for a good, long time. I think that would be a very successful career.

Better Know a Cub: Jeff Samardzija

The Cubs had an interesting draft in 2006. They had the 13th overall pick in the draft (they used it on Tyler Colvin, now with the Rockies). Then, they didn't pick again until the 149th overall pick. They used it on a player who many thought would not even sign; Jeff Samardzija.

 
Samardzija has had a very interesting sporting career. Recruited out of Valparaiso HS (I can attest to how ridiculous a receiver he was in high school – I attended Crown Point) to play wide receiver, the Irish WR did double duty, converting to a pitcher in college as well as setting many records at Notre Dame. He was a late 1st/early 2nd round football talent, but also had some skill on the mound; though raw, 98 mph heat on a fresh arm is mighty, mighty tempting. The Cubs didn't have any impact players in this draft class and felt they needed to take a gamble, and so they did.

Samardzija was a tough, expensive sign. He made 3 million in 2010 and 3.3 million in 2011. The Cubs commitment to him was expected to pay early dividends… and for a while, it did.

 
Curiously, he did not do very well in the minors. He never overpowered anyone, putting up very pedestrian peripherals like 5.1 and 4.1 K/9 rates. He was hittable as well, and his minors numbers who give you the impression of a bust. However, it was evident that he had a plus-fastball, if little else. The Cubs would call him up in 2008 after only 230 minor league innings.
 
The first year, it worked out. Working exclusively from the pen, he dominated his first season. I remember watching him throw 100 mph gas and just being blown away by his raw talent. He walked his fair share (4.9/9), but struck out enough (8.1) and always seemed to work out of jams. 
 
Then, it kind of fell apart. He was sent back down in 09, and didn't impress for a few years. More than a few people thought he would just never throw enough strikes to be a legitimate pitcher. 09 and 10 were basically lost years for Samardzija.
 
Then, 2011 happened. Thrust back into a bullpen role, Samardzija blossomed into an very dominant reliever.  After developing a splitter that would be come a signature strikeout pitch, Jeff was able to strikeout 8.9 per 9 innings and keep his hits down to 6.5 per. He still had a high walk rate, but I and many others were very confident he could be a dominant setup man or closer well into the future.
 
2012 came with an opportunity to grab a rotation spot for Jeff. A starter by trade, Samardzija asked to be given consideration for a starter's role and he earned one. The only way he'd keep the spot, however, is if he could keep his walks down- something he did very well last year. Samardzija goes into the 2013 season as our de facto ace, a player who is still cost-controlled for 3 years and hopefully a dominant top to the rotation.
 
Pitch selection
 
Samardzija features a 95mph fastball, an 85mph slider, and an 86 mph splitter. He mixes in the occasional cutter and curveball, but for the most part he's a pure flamethrower. His splitter is one of the best single pitches in baseball, and the slider is a legit plus pitch as well. The fastball is playable, but average. 
 
Stuff
 
Samardzija induces many swings and misses. His swinging-strike % is 12.1 (league average is 9.1), and the majority of that is inducing swings out of the strike zone (and a much lower percentage of those swings connect against Jeff than average). This is a great sign that he his just dominating guys. He throws slightly less in the zone than the average pitcher, but not enough to be concerning.
 
Summary
 
Samardzija's 2013 season will be extremely important in determing whether or not 2012 is the new normal, or if he'll go back to walking guys. If he keeps up his the 2012 performance or even improves (Samardzija biggest problem last year was keeping the ball down- if he leaves it up in the zone it's a 450 foot bomb), then he's in-line for a huge extension from the Cubs. If he can't keep the walks down, he'll more likely fit as a closer or 8th inning guy. All in all, Samardzija is a revelation, and I wouldn't have said that just 3 years ago.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Better Know a Cub: Welington Castillo

Coming into the 2012 season, the Cubs had an interesting catching debate, and it wasn’t for the starting job. Geovany Soto still had some of that old sheen on him, but behind him was a pair of catchers that were dueling for the backup C job, neither a world-beater in the minors. One of the two was Steve Clevenger, the early favorite. He’d provide a left-handed bench bat and the ability to play first base. He won the job out of spring training and set the world on fire (with a .500/.522/.727 line in April) until getting hurt. Soto would take some time off with an injury as well.

Enter Welington Castillo.

He was called up on April 28 and was slotted into the 8th spot. A lot was made about his defensive catching abilities (or lack thereof), and people were ready to get Clevenger back in there (though most Cubs fans would readily admit that any option was better than Koyie Hill).

However, Welington Castillo was able to do at least one thing well, and that’s hit.

He hit .265/.337/.418 in 190 PA last year, which is not only acceptable for a catcher but quite good. Defensively, he was good for a 25% CS, trivially far from the league average of 27%. There certainly could be problems with his game-calling abilities, but that is anecdotal and in any case very hard for me to quantify. In any case, he played well enough (and Soto and Clevenger went cliff-diving) that he cemented himself as the starting catcher for 2013. Soto was traded and I’d be mildly surprised if Clevenger is on the Cubs 40-man on Opening Day.

Offense

The first thing to notice about Castillo’s line last year is that it was propped up considerably by a .348 BABIP. That’s a number that just isn’t going to be in Welington’s toolbox. I’d imagine that will come down to around .285 or .290, unless he has a much-improved hit tool. Take those singles out of the equation, and his line becomes much less savory- think .220/.300/.380.

He’s also a strike out risk. Last year, he struck out 26.8% of the time. That number is anywhere from 20 to 25% in the minors, too; he’s going to strike out a fair amount. On the other hand, he also draws his share of walks: around 10% in the minors, 9% in the majors last year. I think we can be confident that he’s not going to get overmatched as far as pitch selection goes.

Welington also saw 3.93 P/PA last season. That’s just a hair over the league average. It’s always an encouraging sign to see players that grind out their PA when they enter the league.

Castillo will not be stealing any bases any time soon.

It is going to be interesting to see how Castillo adjusts to the drop in BABIP next year. If he doesn’t improve somewhere else, he’s not going to be a very useful catcher, though he won’t kill the team either. If he does take a step forward (by being more comfortable in the majors, developing a little more power or contact), and repeats a line in the .260/.330/.410 territory, he’ll be a nice little piece.

Defense

I’m not expert on catcher defense. That being said, I’ll defer to some of the scouting reports, which say that’s he’s an average to above-average defender that has some problems with game managing. He also apparently doesn’t frame all that well. I think if those are actually problems, they are presumably very fixable.

Summary

I don’t think Welington is a “sexy” prospect. I think his ceiling isn’t that high and he’ll never be the cornerstone of a team. I do think, however, that his floor is pretty high. It doesn’t take many leaps to imagine a .240/.320/.430 guy at C with good defense. These players have value, and the Cubs need as many of them as they can get. There is no catching prospect even close to threatening in the pipeline, so Castillo is going to get every chance in the world to succeed. I believe he will.


Better Know a Cub: Starlin Castro

As I try to re-boot this old blog, I thought it would be a good idea to include a post on each player on the Cubs 40-man roster as they enter it. Unfortunately for me (or fortunately, depending), that means I have a backlog of 40 profiles to do. I’m going to start with the people who (hopefully) are long-term parts of our franchise, and work my way forward to the fringes of our team.

Starlin Castro is, as of this post, 22 years of age. The list of 22-year old middle infielders with over 2.5 seasons of experience is pretty low. Here is the list of players to have done it since Castro’s birth:

Alex Rodriguez
Starlin Castro
Edgar Renteria
Elvis Andrus

That’s some pretty lofty company, all told. Of the 4, Rodriguez obviously became an otherworldly talent who went on to win 3 MVPs. I think we’d all be happy if Castro’s career arc resembled A-Rod’s even slightly. The other 2 players on the list are currently being outdone by Castro’s performance (I wish I could learn how to embed the B-Ref page). They both have better gloves than Castro, but the same OBP and a good deal less power.

We’ve established that Castro is a rare talent due to his age. What can we expect going forward, though?

Offense

First, let’s take a look at his BABIP. This usually hovers around .300; any higher and you can get suspicious (though faster players and players that have better bat control may have higher numbers). Castro went from a BABIP of .346 in his first year to .344 to .315 last year. This was the primary driver for his decreased numbers this year; unfortunately, it seems more likely to be the “true” BABIP for Starlin going forward. .350 is a really, really high average; you’d have to be Campana-fast and/or Votto-accurate to reasonably expect an average in that realm.

For Castro to grow offensively, he’s going to have to make his gains in other areas. There are a few ways he could do that:

1. Increase his walk rate.
Castro has tended around 5.2% in BB% for his career, compared to a league average of 8.2%. This is a very feasible thing to increase and the reasons are two-fold. First, his plate discipline has room for improvement. Obviously, gains in this area will directly affect his walk rate. Second, and more importantly, Castro is still growing into some power. His HR% is trending up, as his ISO. As he grows into his power, he’s going to become more dangerous as a hitter. As a result, he should theoretically get worse pitches to hit, which result in more walks.

2. See more pitches.
This is the close relative of the first bullet point. Castro is a tremendously gifted athlete. He can put a bat on a ball with the best of them, and does not strike out very often. His ability to make contact means he can put a lot of balls in play. Unfortunately, those balls are increasingly less likely to result in hits. This ends up hurting the Cubs in the aggregate, because Castro’s PA end early (3.46 P/PA last year) and result in pitchers going deeper against them. If Castro sees more pitches, he’ll inevitably see more pitches that he can actually do something with (and, alternatively, more walks). This is the “selectively aggressive” stance that the Cubs FO is trying to infuse in the organization.

3. Be smarter on the basepaths.
This is a minor gripe, but Castro sure does get picked off at first a lot, and he led the league in CS last year. Those are outs the Cubs quite frankly can’t afford to give away.

All in all, these are relatively doable action items. As it stands right now, Castro is slightly above a league-average bat playing a premium position. If he never gets better than he is right now, he’s still a valuable piece. If he gets better, he’s going to be the type of player you wouldn’t hesitate building your whole club around.

Defense
Castro has been a frustrating defender these past 3 seasons. He led the league in errors both this year and last, and would have led them in 2010 had he played a full season. At his current pace, he’ll be the active leader in SS errors by age 29. However, he also led the league in assists both this year and last. His Range Factor was best in the league last year, 3rd the year before.

Castro’s great strength is the sheer number of balls he can get to. Part of me thinks that’s positioning, but he’s done it through 3 different managers (the fact that Castro has played under 3 managers in 3 years is a little sad.). Even if his conversion rating on these plays isn’t ideal (improving in that respect), I think on the whole it’s a wash. His F2O% has climbed to 88% this year, compared to a league average of 89%, so he’s converting balls fielded into outs at roughly the same rate as the other guys- he just so happens to get to more balls in general than the other guys do.

The problem, of course, is that each play you mess up counts more than the plays you don’t make. That ball deep in the hole is still only a single if you miss; the easy play you throw over Rizzo’s head is now a “double.” Last year, Castro errors resulted in 21 men reaching that would not have otherwise; this probably erodes all of his “good will” in getting to more balls.

That said, he’s improving in this area, and I believe he will continue to improve.

Summary
Castro is under team control for the next 8 years. The contract he is signed to will pay him 53 million through 2019, with a 16 million option (1 million buyout) for 2020. This is a moderately team-friendly contract. According to BR, Castro provided 3.5 WAR last year, and 3.0 WAR the year before that. If he only ever gets to 3.5 WAR, that’s 28 WAR over 8 years for 69 million dollars. That’s still a great deal…and I expect him to improve over time anyway! I am very happy that Castro is a Cub right now, and hopefully will be for a long, long time.