AL scout on arod: "I can't believe anyone would be interested." #114MIL plus #30MIL in milestone HR bonuses — Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) October 19, 2012 Every single year we hear about this. Player makes lots of money. Same player isn't worth what he's paid. Not even close. People say this player can't be traded. Every. Single. Year. Yet every single …
Obstructed View Projections Contest Results
Prior to the start of the season we set up an over/under projections contest. It was rather extensive so fewer people than we'd hoped entered the contest. Plus, there aren't all that many people who are dying to have an Obstructed View t-shirt. There just aren't. Really, trust us. It was a long survey. We used 11 position players and …
How much is Darwin Barney worth in a trade?
Before we look into Darwin Barney's trade value, I was thinking I wouldn't be that confident in the numbers below. Most of the time I am, but for someone like Barney I'm not. At all. Why? Because of Placido Polanco. To understand why you can check these two links out. IN the first link written after the 2006 seaosn, Tangotiger …
OV Contest mid-season update
At the beginning of the season we started an over/under contest that would take wouldn't reveal a winner until the end of the season. People chose whether a player would end the season over or under his projections. Under was a bit confusing for pitchers and I made that clear in the post. If you thought the pitcher was going …
How much is Ryan Dempster's Trade Value?
Ryan Dempster entered the 2012 season in the final year of his contract. He was coming off season in which his ERA had ballooned to 4.80, but his FIP and xFIP were in line with what he'd done as a starter since 2008. His FIP was 3.91 and he had an xFIP of 3.70. The projections had him at a …
No Love For Jeff Samardzija
I was checking out the stats for most of the Cubs players today (and some other players too). When I was looking at what Jeff Samardzija had done so far this year it wasn't how well he's pitched (at least by FIP standards anyway) that stood out to me, but how no rest of season projection expected a damn thing …
Does Alfonso Soriano have any trade value?
The simple answer to this question is that he does not have any trade value, but simple isn't good enough. That's especially true when you're talking about a player who is still owed $43.5 million through the end of 2014. The Cubs tried hard this offseason to find some team interested in taking him and didn't have much luck. We …
Updated End of Season Projections
Using Baseball Prospectus rest of season PECOTA projections I figured it might be fun to see just how many games the Cubs are expected to lose at this point. Since this is OV and we're Cubs fans we do things in reverse order. We're more focused on the 2013 draft order and which slot the Cubs may be picking from. …
5th worst start for the Cubs ever
Chris Jaffe looked at the Cubs worst starts and found that this 15-31 bunch ties for 5th worst with the 1962 team. Jaffe's article is worth a read. It's a brief article so it won't take you very long. Last night I became curious how well the Cubs would have to play the rest of the season to reach certain …
Projecting the 2012 Cubs: Michael Bowden
Yesterday the Cubs traded Marlon Byrd to the Red Sox for Michael Bowden and a player to be named later. Bowden was drafted in the 1st round (47th overall) in 2005. He was the last of the 5 draft picks the Red Sox had in the 1st round that year. In 2006 Bowden established himself as one of the best …