It's hard to believe that February is here, which means pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Mesa in a couple weeks. The position players won't be far behind. It's particularly hard to believe because the Cubs didn't have an active offseason. Not once have I actually looked forward to watching Cubs baseball. I have looked forward to watching baseball, …
Projecting the 2012 Cubs: Catchers
The past few years I've done posts for each player, but this year I'm going to do it by position. It's a little more than 9 weeks until the season starts so about one of these per week will get it done by the time the season starts. The starting catcher will be Geovany Soto and one of Welington Castillo …
70-win 2012 Cubs
On RLYW, SG ran the code to create his own Marcel projections since Tangotiger has yet to publish them. He then simulated the season and the Cubs finish 5th in the NL Central, 4 games ahead of the Astros. The forecast has the Reds winning the division with 89 wins, which is tied for second in the NL with the …
Platoon Splits Projections
A couple of years ago berselius used the information in The Book on splits to create a splits projeciton tool. I'm pretty sure this is the tool that SG used on RLWY to provide splits projections. He may have modified it since, but I thought we should look at the Cubs splits projections to see how many possible platoons we …
CAIRO’s Extremely Early Projected Standings
SG published the first projected standings for his CAIRO projections (version .3) yesterday. They make a lot more sense to me than the early Oliver projections. TM W L RS RA Div WC PL Brewers 92 70 700 646 52.5% 14.3% 66.7% Cardinals 90 72 708 648 36.8% 19.3% 56.2% Reds 84 78 724 704 10.1% 10.8% 20.9% Cubs 74 …
2012 Cubs Oliver Projections, Part 2
We took a look at the Oliver projections for the Cubs hitters yesterday and realized how bad the offense currently is. The pitching projections are below: Name IP H HR K BB ERA FIP WAR Matt Garza 205 191 21 180 66 3.69 3.74 4 Ryan Dempster 205 207 23 183 78 4.36 4.01 2.4 Carlos Zambrano 200 198 19 …
2012 Cubs Oliver Projections, Part 1
The Hardball Times has released their Oliver projections for the 2012 season. Berselius will once again be writing the player comments. Like the other projections, I’ll break them into multiple parts and then as we move closer to the season add a third part for each one. It’s kind of useless to calculate the team WAR at this point considering …
2012 Cubs Bill James Projections, Part 2
It’s Bill James week here at Obstructed View. We published the hitter’s projections a few days ago, our interview with Bill James and now the pitcher projections. I calculated the FIP. Pitcher W L G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA FIP Sean Marshall 5 4 78 0 75 71 6 21 65 3.24 3.43 Andrew Cashner 9 6 …
2012 Cubs Bill James Projections, Part 1
Over the years a lot of people have claimed that the Bill James projections are optimistic. In a straight player to player comparison it will often seem that way, but the league average of these projections is important to consider. For example, let’s consider a couple examples. Player A is projected to hit .330 wOBA, league average is .330 wOBAPlayer …
Trade Value: Carlos Pena
The first of June is tomorrow and while no significant trades are likely to be made in the first few weeks of June, the Cubs do find themselves to be far from contenders at this point. The Cubs will likely trade a few players near the deadline for prospects so it seems a good time to start talking about the …