The Bears released their preseason depth chart, their first one of the season. Here it is:
Some takeaways:
Kyle Long is going to start Week 1 at RG, that's all there is to it. He's listed as the "co-starter," which is a gentleman's way of saying "we're starting the rookie, thanks."
Eben Britton is slotted as the backup RT, with Matt Slauson hanging on to the LG starter's role. I don't hate it; Britton can play them both, and he's nice depth (that will almost certainly start at some point in the year, as J'Marcus Webb is the starting RT).
Leonard Pope debuts as the co-4th string (and there's two 3rd-stringers too). That's only because he's new to camp; he's got a good shot to be the 3rd TE behind Maneri and Bennett.
The Bears list Corey Wootoon and Shea McClellin as co-starters at LDE. That's fine, and honestly, defensive line strings don't matter. You are constantly rotating guys in and out of the line, so people play even at 3rd string, and you can generally work out who is good or not as the games actually start getting played.
Jon Bostic is the 2nd string, behind D.J. Williams, for now. It's slightly surprising, but it's really hard to play MLB as a rookie, so I don't consider it a disappointment even if he never starts this year. Lance Briggs will be calling plays in either case.
2012 3rd rounder Brandon Hardin is 3rd on the depth chart at SS, behind Anthony Walters. He's been bad when healthy, and he hasn't been healthy often. He can't tackle in open space, which, well, that'll get you a spot on the 3rd string pretty quickly. He might end up in the Jarron Gilbert school of mid-round busts pretty soon.
Stepping back in a general sense, I get the impression that this team is probably 8-8 or 9-7. The offense is going to be pretty decent (with the obvious health caveat). The line is mediocre, which is really good compared to last year. Cutler is a good QB with plenty of weapons, and Matt Forte is still a top-10 back. The defense is going to take a pretty big step back, though, due to both Lovie Smith's absence and the erosion of play in the secondary (let's not forget how awful Tim Jennings was prior to mid-2011, and how nicked up Tillman gets on a yearly basis). Linebacker is a slight concern also.
Comments
From previous Cubs thread (is this legal?):
@ dmick89:
So we’ve seen him spend more than a few times. Those signings aren’t exactly glowing examples of why you should spend big money on a guy in the middle of his prime or on the tail end of it.
We’ve talked in recent years that the Cubs will have to sign a big free agent or two to get this rebuild sped up…and it just hasn’t happened. Maybe I’m just weighting the recent past too much and not seeing the big picture of this team actually getting close to contending where spending big will have it’s rewards.
srbutch5Quote Reply
Ugh on the Bears. I am still hoping to see another postseason appearance some day.
joshQuote Reply
My money’s on Choo, maybe Lincecum, and probably a trade-and-extend. I’m glad to see Baez walking like crazy lately, because then maybe he won’t get traded this winter and I won’t have to weep openly.
sitrick2Quote Reply
Also, I think money will go to a reasonable extension for Travis Wood and possibly for spellcheck, though I kinda still hope he’s still a pain in the ass about it and he gets traded for a giant haul.
sitrick2Quote Reply
I don’t see the Cubs going after Cano this year either, though I wouldn’t be surprised to hear them involved in the bidding process. I agree with dmick, of course the FO isn’t going to reject signing megadeals out of hand. If they think this team can get up to a true talent level of 85-90 wins or so in 2014 or 2015, they would go after Cano hard. Players decline as they age, but when you’re declining from 6-7 WAR that’s a lot of production to add to your team.
BerseliusQuote Reply
How can they afford Cano with all that money funneling into Carlos Silva?
joshQuote Reply
srbutch5 wrote:
I think you’re forgetting one important thing: contracts just get larger and larger. When Maddux signed with the Braves he signed for the largest contract for a pitcher (largest overall contract?) and it was nothing compared to today. The win value is between $5.5 million and $6.5 million right now. Buying wins is expensive. Buying good players is really expensive.
The Cubs have money. It’s one of their advantages over the rest of the division. They certainly don’t have scouting and development over the Cardinals. Hopefully they can get to their level, but they aren’t there yet. If they refuse to spend, they’re not taking advantage of what can give the biggest edge over the Cardinals and the rest of the division.
The Cubs will spend big on a player or two. It’s not so much a question of whether or not they’ll do it. It’s when and for what player or players.
For every Feldman that works out, there are probably 2 or 3 Scott Bakers. This isn’t an effective long-term plan for success.
I can safely say that in 5 years if I’m just watching the Cubs pass on the best free agents, I’ll be done. That is not the kind of team of I want to follow. That is not the kind of GM the Cubs hired away from Boston. I think we should bet big that Thoyer will run this team in much the same way they ran the Red Sox with great success. Hopefully they learned from a few of their mistakes.
If the Cubs plan was to do just spend small in the long run, they made a huge mistake in going after Theo and not Andrew Friedman. They’d be asking Theo do something other than what made him successful in Boston even though they could have chosen a guy who had success running the same kind of operation that you intend to.
dmick89Quote Reply
Also, this: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/big-long-deals/
I’ll quote the final paragraph:
I was looking for that article prior to my last comment, but couldn’t find it. Then I remembered I bookmarked it. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Olney apparently said (heard this via Simmons on his podcast) that the Pujols contract is seen as such a disaster around baseball that the days of the ten year, $250 mil contract are over. Which, (dying laughing) sure.
sitrick2Quote Reply
The Cubs will spend, but whether they make their move next year is doubtful. If they really liked a free agent like Cano, I could see them spending next year.
Are we so certain, however, that they have the money? We are guessing so based on past budgets, but it may be that it takes 5 years before they actually CAN spend… a depressing thought.
joshQuote Reply
@ sitrick2:
I think that’s hard to believe. As long as there are teams that have a lot of money, those contracts will be signed. About the only way I see contracts like that going away in the short-term is if baseball adds a salary cap. Even if you do that, those contracts will eventually come back when the value of the win exceeds $10 million. Probably before that.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
Yeah, that’s a big question. Between the debt the family took on buying the team and the renovation, there may not be much money available.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
Josh makes a point worth noting. We keep saying the Cubs have money and more money than any of their divisional counterparts, but do they really? With all the spending at the other levels, we’ve seen the payroll come down considerably…to that of the Cardinals and maybe even lower (too lazy to look, I know they are usually around 90-100M). I think this year and next will be telling as to whether they are open to spending this so called money they have available.
I certainly hope, like all of us here, that they flex their proverbial financial muscles, but we’ve seen little to no signs that will happen. I do agree with dmick in that they should’ve (would’ve?) hired Friedman if they weren’t going to spend to the likes of a large market team. But that would mean they would have to stop doing Cub things and that’s probably not going to happen.
srbutch5Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Yeah, exactly. No GM wants to give out a $250 mil deal until they get the call saying someone else is offering $249 mil. Seems obtuse to suggest the whole paradigm of player acquisition is going to change over a single contract. Not to mention we were hearing the same sort of thing a decade ago after big deals started biting teams in the ass.
sitrick2Quote Reply
I mean, they really do have to have some money. Why would Theo and Co want to take over a team just to rebuild from scratch without financial flexibility? That just doesn’t sound appealing at all…especially when you’re a coveted asset and could mostly pick your destination.
srbutch5Quote Reply
@ srbutch5:
Unless Ownership lead Theo and Co to believe they had more financial flexibility than they really do…
srbutch5Quote Reply
I think the offense will be better than you think. As I’ve said, line quality matters much less in the WCO. Other than QB, the skill positions are perfect for that offense.
They’ll likely force fewer turnovers too.
Egg ShanQuote Reply
srbutch5 wrote:
I don’t think that’s true. There have been enough rumors since Theo got here that the Cubs were in on the top free agents to believe the reports. My guess is that a couple years ago they set a firm limit for players like Pujols. Maybe 7/170 or something. Once the bidding passed that, they dropped out.
Last year I wouldn’t be surprised if they increased that a bit. If Pujols was entering free agency, maybe it was 8/185 or something. I think that number will continue to increase as the Cubs get closer to contending.
On top of that, we’ve heard that one of the goals of the renovation is so that the Cubs have more money to spend on free agents. We know they’ll actively pursue a tv contract when they can.
I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest the Cubs were willing to spend big even while rebuilding. I think it’s an almost certainty that we’ll see it later on. Again, I just don’t think Ricketts reached the conclusion to go after Theo lightly. We know he didn’t. If he didn’t expect this team to spend up to the level a large market team should, I think we’d see a different person in charge (Friedman). So really, even going after Theo is some evidence this team intends to spend at some point.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ srbutch5:
That’s a possibility. There are others that would preclude them from spending big too. Ricketts didn’t realize how little money he’d have due to other investments is another. I still think it’s more likely they will simply because it’s not smart to just ignore any and all high priced free agent. We’ve seen little to no evidence they will do that.
dmick89Quote Reply
srbutch5 wrote:
Egg ShanQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Hopefully they don’t talk themselves out of overbidding on EVERY free agent. They’ll have to overspend at some point to land someone. Spending shit tons of money is the new market inefficiency. Unless you’re Billy Beane. That guy is a wizard.
joshQuote Reply
Independent of the thoughts pro or con using drugs, is A-Rod’s punishment for generally lying and being an asshole fair? I’m inclined to think it is. Then again, I never much liked him and don’t really care if they suspend him. Whether that makes me a bad baseball fan or not.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I haven’t followed the whole Biogenesis thing. Maybe that makes me a bad fan, but it interests me no more than all the shit I unfortunately see about the Kardashians.
dmick89Quote Reply
That said, I’d assume ARod was suspended for as long as he was for more than lying. If it is just lying, that’s pretty fucked up, but it has to be more than that, right? In the end, the players union agreed to this so it’s his fault.
dmick89Quote Reply
josh wrote:
Egg ShanQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Egg ShanQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
It’s for using, impeding the investigation, directing others to the clinic, and maybe other things. They must have a lot of hard evidence (recorded phone/skype calls?) for everyone to accept punishment readily like they did.
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I haven’t been actively following it, MLB is thrusting it in my face on every video/story feed. It’s just sort of in the foreground. Their summary videos basically cock ass fucking start with interviews on it etc. Hard to get around.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Egg ShanQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Wut.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’ve learned how to avoid shit that’s covered in the news that I have no interest in. I think it’s a skill. It might be my only one.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
That threw me for a loop too.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
What else is in the CBA other than the provisions for failed tests?
Someone on MLB Network (Verducci I think) pointed out last night that usually the union would be fighting tooth and nail against these suspensions, but their silence is probably an indicator of how the majority of the players feel about getting rid of PEDs.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Everyone has one special skill
/Diggler
BerseliusQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Egg ShanQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Making sure I provide plenty of ammo.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Or how strong the evidence is.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Or it could be their back is against the wall. Maybe they privately defended Biogenesis or there is something bigger under the surface no one wants brought to light. or I’m being melodramatic.
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
But I’ve drawn you in. I WIN!!! MWHAHAHAHAHAHAA!
joshQuote Reply
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/hayhurst-hypocrisy-of-the-herd-mentality/
MishQuote Reply
In spirit of the football thread:
http://youtu.be/6KeG_i8CWE8
I can’t remember if it was Berselius or Ryno who was the Spurs fan, but this is a solid bit from NBC about BPL.
Edit: I’m an idiot and can’t figure out how to embed.
srbutch5Quote Reply
@ Mish:
all this article does is make me hate sports
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I don’t see how the Cubs get through this free agency without adding one of Ellsbury, Choo, Cano, Beltran, Granderson, or Cruz. They need OF help for next year and beyond. I wonder if you can get Beltran on a 2/$20m deal. Count me in on Ellsbury, Choo, or Beltran, depending on if they go short term or long term.
By the way, is Beltran a HOFer? His stats look like it.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
Seeing how everyone that leaves the Cardinals ends up broken, I don’t want Beltran. It seems like they get the last useful life of any asset and then release it to go die on it’s own.
srbutch5Quote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
I hope so.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
I agree that it’s probably a bad idea to sign Beltran if the Cardinals let him loose. I also think he’s a HOFer.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Did you guys see the article about Phil Emery on Grantland (by Bill Barmwell, I think one of the originators of Football Outsiders).
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9531195/bill-barnwell-phil-emery-general-manager-philosophy
Here’s the start…
That’s pretty high praise right there.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
I’m very high on the future of the Cubs and the Bears, primarily because they have some of the best people in sports running the front offices. I don’t know jack about hockey, but the Blackhawks have had a nice little run as well, and seem to have a good plan. The Bulls I’m undecided on. I think their management team does pretty well given the arbitrary constraints placed on them by ownership.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
Hockey is always dicey, because the salary caps tend to even out the teams year to year. Two Cups in the last few years is pretty cool though.
joshQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
I want to be optimistic for the Bears. The Cubs I’m optimistic about, but I’m not going to get excited until probably 2015 for an actual playoff run.
joshQuote Reply
I’m optimistic about the Bears too, but they were pretty clearly constructed in a way that tried to use a window that has already closed. The year that Cutler was injured in the playoffs was pretty much the best shot this team was going to have at a Super Bowl. Now, they have a really old defense (Peppers will be released or restructured after this year, Tillman is ancient, Briggs is on the backside) and it’s an open question whether Cutler can succeed in this offense (I tend to think he will, but we’ll see). The Bears are probably 2 seasons from being really good again, though they can be respectable in transition (and I think they will be).
MylesQuote Reply
I’m finishing the JOT right now.
MylesQuote Reply
@ srbutch5:
@ Rice Cube:
I would argue that Beltran is a better short term signing than both Nelson Cruz and Curtis Granderson. I don’t see Beltran’s power falling off. His walk rate is low this season but I bet it picks back up.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I think the protected pick this offseason will also be a big incentive for the FO to get a good FA. Even if they plan to content in 2015, you gotta get the players when they’re available. This FO values draft picks too much to give them up in the 1st round if not protected.
Also, I’m going to the Cubs game tonight assuming its not raining here in Philly.
NateQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-8-5-13.html
MylesQuote Reply
@ Nate:
Sorry man. That’s rough.
joshQuote Reply