Time: 7:05 pm CT
Gameday
B-Ref Preview
| Cubs | wOBA | wRC | RS | Astros | wOBA | wRC | RS | |
| Starlin Castro | .332 | .556 | -0.13 | Michael Bourn | .307 | .451 | 0.03 | |
| Darwin Barney | .293 | .385 | 0.03 | Angel Sanchez | .287 | .362 | -0.07 | |
| Marlon Byrd | .338 | .560 | -0.01 | Hunter Pence | .342 | .573 | -0.01 | |
| Aramis Ramirez | .350 | .590 | -0.03 | Carlos Lee | .338 | .546 | -0.05 | |
| Jeff Baker | .312 | .431 | -0.01 | Brett Wallace | .326 | .483 | 0.03 | |
| Geovany Soto | .362 | .603 | -0.01 | Bill Hall | .311 | .417 | -0.09 | |
| Alfonso Soriano | .339 | .504 | 0.00 | Matt Downs | .312 | .408 | 0.03 | |
| Tyler Colvin | .318 | .422 | 0.00 | J.R. Towles | .307 | .384 | -0.02 | |
| Carlos Zambrano | .175 | .000 | 0.00 | Wandy Rodriguez | .175 | .000 | 0.00 | |
| 4.1 | -.14 | 3.6 | -0.15 |
| Starting Pitcher | IP/GS | FIP |
| Carlos Zambrano | 5.81 | 3.92 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 6.00 | 3.71 |
| Bullpens | xFIP | |
| Cubs | 4.05 | |
| Astros | 4.5 | |
Score: Cubs 4.1, Astros 3.6
Win Probability: 50.7%
Comments
50.7%
Isn’t that a little high?
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
I like the part where yesterday’s bullpen of fail had a better win probability than today when Z is pitching. Must be the lazy Latin factor.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]50.7%
Isn’t that a little high?[/quote]
I think anything above 25% is high at this point. I don’t care what MB’s fagety spreadsheets say.
Aisle424Quote Reply
ROFL
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/sam-fuld-makes-everything-better/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Urk]You may not realize it, so I’ll let it pass…this time. But the advanced stat that you’ve mislabeled “adjusted for fun-to-watchedness” is actually VATMBWE™ or Value Added To My Baseball Watching Experience. I can’t tell you the formula-I’d have to kill all of you if I revealed it here-but I can disclose that it involves proportionally weighted modifier counts (mainly adverbs and adjectives, adjusted for player’s racial identification and recent dinner-eating rankings). Although largely ignored in the world of advanced metrics, VATMBWE™ is the single greatest predictor of the discrepancy between the game as it occurs on the field and the game is it is perceived in the minds of millions of baseball fans, something all of your faget stats are helpless in accounting for. [/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
AndCountingQuote Reply
everytime i see JR Towles start I have to laugh at that asshole at NSBB who said Towles was ROY done deal sealed
dylanjQuote Reply
castro is good at sports
dylanjQuote Reply
I didn’t know Carlos Lee could play defense.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
baker just fucking murders LHP
dylanjQuote Reply
Jeff baker hits lefties well… Correct
CerambamQuote Reply
Baker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U39kfgjuie4&NR=1
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
well we needed this.
dylanjQuote Reply
Short porch.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
OH, Hell Yeah. Lazy Latin stat padding homer.
melissaQuote Reply
And boom goes the dynamite.
mikjones24Quote Reply
Soriano’s having a quietly good offensive season. I pray to Fuld it continues.
AndCountingQuote Reply
Lazy Latin didn’t want to run hard.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
This must be Bizarro Wandy Rodriguez
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]Soriano’s having a quietly good offensive season. I pray to Fuld it continues.[/quote]
Fuld supplanted DeRosa?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Fuld supplanted DeRosa?[/quote]DeRosa prepared the way for Fuld.
AndCountingQuote Reply
I had Wandy on my fantasy team last year. Believe me…this is Wandy.
mikjones24Quote Reply
[quote name=mikjones24]I had Wandy on my fantasy team last year. Believe me…this is Wandy.[/quote]
He’s not lost to the Cubs in his last 10 starts against them.
melissaQuote Reply
Did they move the flag pole? I thought it used to be closer.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mikjones24]I had Wandy on my fantasy team last year. Believe me…this is Wandy.[/quote]Wandy has been ridiculously good at home and bad on the road. Makes no sense. Overall though he’s been one of the better starting pitchers in baseball over the last 5 years. It’s just hard to imagine someone with his stuff being that good. He doesn’t seem like he would be, but he is.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Did they move the flag pole? I thought it used to be closer.[/quote]I thought they moved it after the first year or two.
mb21Quote Reply
The Cubs figure out how to score after getting the leadoff man on.
mb21Quote Reply
I like how Z almost killed Wandy’s ankles on that comebacker.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Good lord. George looks like he’s on his last leg.
mikjones24Quote Reply
Castro’s free-swinging is starting to worry me.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]The Cubs figure out how to score after getting the leadoff man on.[/quote]
Yes, you hit into a fielder’s choice and get him off the base paths. You then commence a two out scoring rally.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Castro’s free-swinging is starting to worry me.[/quote]
I thought it was ball four but GameDay said it was a strike…razor’s edge.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Didn’t know you could “muscle” a pop out to short.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Didn’t know you could “muscle” a pop out to short.[/quote]
Its kinda like fisting it
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Castro’s free-swinging is starting to worry me.[/quote]Yeah, it’s gotten pretty bad. At some point the pitchers are just going to stop throwing him anything decent. He’s shown in the last couple weeks that he’ll swing at literally anything. He’s not going to maintain that .400 BABIP.
He is hitting more line drives this season, but far fewer fly balls. If he’s ever going to develop much power that has to change. You don’t hit home runs on the ground. He’s swinging at a lot more pitches out of the zone as well as in the zone and he was already a free swinger.
The numbers are awfully nice, but they’re hiding some serious flaws that you’d expect to be improving, but are only getting worse.
mb21Quote Reply
Brett Jackson is 2-2 so far. He’s not long for Tennessee.
mb21Quote Reply
WTF. Wallace just walked on strike four.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
jesus christ this ump sucks
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]WTF. Wallace just walked on strike four.[/quote]
No wait, GameDay says it was strike five.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Warning track power for the Astros tonight
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Brett Jackson is 2-2 so far. He’s not long for Tennessee.[/quote]
I was shocked to see him there to begin with.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
Castro has a fucking cannon.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
Well that’s too bad for them.
mikjones24Quote Reply
Despite the offensive issues, it’s not fair to point out that Castro appears to be a far superior defender this season. I just hope he didn’t spend so much time focusing on defense that he let the offense go.
mb21Quote Reply
Got him! Nice relay by Castro
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]Castro has a fucking cannon.[/quote]
Assist to Soriano. Lazy Latin powers, activate!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]I was shocked to see him there to begin with.[/quote]I was too. I figured he’d be in Des Moines.
mb21Quote Reply
Mish, your blog is added to the sidebar under Cubs blogs.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]DeRosa prepared the way for Fuld.[/quote]Fuld sits at the right hand of the DeRosa.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Mish, your blog is added to the sidebar under Cubs blogs.[/quote]What did he do to piss you off?
GBTSQuote Reply
I know they got him on that play but soriano just seems like he lightly jogs to every single ball
CerambamQuote Reply
Brett Wallace looks like that frat guy who is 27 but is still in college…
mikjones24Quote Reply
The three lazy amigos are on fire tonight
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
It’s too bad Jeff Baker can’t face a lefty each time up.
mb21Quote Reply
Baker likes lefties.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Finally. At some point Soto’s liners had to start getting through.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
Who has that Gashouse Gorillas GIF?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Nice play on that scorcher…bad luck.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Josh Johnson is doing something.
GBTSQuote Reply
bases loaded nobody out = no runs for the cubs
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Josh Johnson is doing something.[/quote]
(dying laughing) i knew what you meant before i even looked at the score of that game
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
Yup that’ll do baker
CerambamQuote Reply
If you could time it properly, is there anything against the rules preventing a team with a retractable dome from opening and closing it every half inning?
GBTSQuote Reply
For those keeping score at home, Tyler Colvin has 8 K and 4 BB in 36 PA.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Nice fast inning for Z. Would be great to see him go 7 tonight.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]For those keeping score at home, Tyler Colvin has grit.[/quote].
GBTSQuote Reply
I’m gonna picture him with an eye patch from now on.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
Was it me or did they just mention the JDRF and then show an overweight teenager?
mikjones24Quote Reply
Is Z better from the left or right
CerambamQuote Reply
Josh Johnson stopped doing something.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Cerambam]Is Z better from the left or right[/quote]Higher OPS as RHB, IIRC.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Higher OPS as RHB, IIRC.[/quote] This might not be the time or place but what is IIRC
CerambamQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Josh Johnson stopped doing something.[/quote]
That was disappointing.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]If you could time it properly, is there anything against the rules preventing a team with a retractable dome from opening and closing it every half inning?[/quote]I don’t think so. I think there have even been some stoppages while they wait for the dome to open or close because one team can’t have the advantage one way or the other.
mb21Quote Reply
.
WaLiQuote Reply
IIRC = If I Remember Correctly
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Is Z mixing up his speeds? He rarely gets in the 90s anymore. I remember he used to throw gas.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Is Z mixing up his speeds? He rarely gets in the 90s anymore. I remember he used to throw gas.[/quote]Yeah, there was an article about this on cubfx I think. Z-volution
WaLiQuote Reply
he’s be around 92 all night
dylanjQuote Reply
54 through 4 tonight for Z
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
Thanks Wali. I now remember the 2 minute 15 second interval in Arizona. I’ve been to about 25 to 30 games there and have seen that a few times. Didn’t know that’s what it was for though.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]IIRC = If I Remember Correctly[/quote](dying laughing) I thought it was one of those stats you guys practically make up like OBPSHPIP+
CerambamQuote Reply
[quote name=mikjones24]Was it me or did they just mention the JDRF and then show an overweight teenager?[/quote]
That definitely happened…
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]he’s be around 92 all night[/quote]He’s topped out at 92, dj: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=4&day=13&year=2011&game=gid_2011_04_13_chnmlb_houmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=407296&prevGame=gid_2011_04_13_chnmlb_houmlb_1%2F&prevDate=413
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]he’s be around 92 all night[/quote]Oh really? Gameday showing 90 as his top speed. I haven’t seen many games but the ones I have, it just seemed Z was throwing slower than I remember.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Thanks Wali. I now remember the 2 minute 15 second interval in Arizona. I’ve been to about 25 to 30 games there and have seen that a few times. Didn’t know that’s what it was for though.[/quote]Why do they open the roof in AZ? I don’t exactly understand what they are saying. At the end of every inning they open it for 2 minutes?
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Oh really? Gameday showing 90 as his top speed. I haven’t seen many games but the ones I have, it just seemed Z was throwing slower than I remember.[/quote]
Tons of movement from what I can see on the old TV.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Average fastball under 89 on the seson: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/407296/
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Tons of movement from what I can see on the old TV.[/quote]He’s always had good movement I thought.
MuckerQuote Reply
Who in the FAILpen gifts this game? I say Stevens.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Average fastball under 89 on the seson: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/407296/%5B/quote%5DMan, that website is insane.
MuckerQuote Reply
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]He’s always had good movement I thought.[/quote]
Yeah. I love watching those pitches. I’m guessing it’s harder to make your fireballs move and I recall Z liked using 2-seamers and sliders and splitters a bunch. So the drop in velocity maybe not that much of a concern?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
well im just watching the CSN gun so it might be up but ive seen 92 over and over.
dylanjQuote Reply
Okay, Castro is awesome.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So fucking good at sports…
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
Rough year so far for Colvin
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Yeah. I love watching those pitches. I’m guessing it’s harder to make your fireballs move and I recall Z liked using 2-seamers and sliders and splitters a bunch. So the drop in velocity maybe not that much of a concern?[/quote]Agreed.
MuckerQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Awesome!
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
Z!!!!!!
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]Z!!!!!![/quote]
He crushed the hell out of that ball.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
How any Cub fan, hell, any baseball fan, can hate Zambrano is beyond me. THAT is what a fucking gamer looks like. Carlos Zambrano is better at baseball than you.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]How any Cub fan, hell, any baseball fan, can hate Zambrano is beyond me. THAT is what a fucking gamer looks like. Carlos Zambrano is better at baseball than you.[/quote]
I suck compared to Z. Z is my hero.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Castro just keeps hitting.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Whut?
WaLiQuote Reply
fuck the heck?
dylanjQuote Reply
What happened?
MuckerQuote Reply
Fly ball out to LF. Ball gets thrown in. Everyone is standing around. Then all of a sudden everyone runs off the field except Castro.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]How any Cub fan, hell, any baseball fan, can hate Zambrano is beyond me. THAT is what a fucking gamer looks like. Carlos Zambrano is better at baseball than you.[/quote]
This X 1000.
melissaQuote Reply
I think he forgot to touch second on his way back to first.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Astros just left the field with 2 outs. (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think he forgot to touch second on his way back to first.[/quote]It looked like he never ran past it? He just kind of stood on it.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think he forgot to touch second on his way back to first.[/quote]For real? ESPN Gamecast still has it as 2 outs.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Yeah they called it a double play, said he never touched second on his way back
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]It looked like he never ran past it? He just kind of stood on it.[/quote]If that’s the case, then he’s not out, but given the shit sandwich of an umpiring crew this is, who knows.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Yeah they called it a double play, said he never touched second on his way back[/quote]Are they right?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Did Quade even bother to argue? Or is he waiting to tell Castro that he’s been benched and not to have dinner?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Couldn’t tell from the replay… didn’t look like he did anything wrong to me
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]If that’s the case, then he’s not out, but given the shit sandwich of an umpiring crew this is, who knows.[/quote]The umpire didn’t call it until Bill Hall appealed, then the umpire said “eh fuck it, he’s out”
Only the fucking Cubs (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Are they right?[/quote]Kinda hard to tell, MO. WGN only showed the replay once and it wasn’t real clear (to me at least).
[quote name=melissa]This X 1000.[/quote]Correct.
cwolfQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Did Quade even bother to argue? Or is he waiting to tell Castro that he’s been benched and not to have dinner?[/quote]
Quade just stayed in the dugout. I don’t know if he even knew what was going on?
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]The umpire didn’t call it until Bill Hall appealed, then the umpire said “eh fuck it, he’s out”
Only the fucking Cubs (dying laughing)[/quote]HUMAN ELEMENT!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I think he touched second but then immediately back tracked without actually going past second.
Between yesterday’s non-baseline violation and today’s crappy strike zone, I guess it’s to be expected.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Z is getting squeezed by this ump
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Quade just stayed in the dugout. I don’t know if he even knew what was going on?[/quote]Well, he never knows what’s going on. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]The umpire didn’t call it until Bill Hall appealed, then the umpire said “eh fuck it, he’s out”
Only the fucking Cubs (dying laughing)[/quote]The ump can’t call it until they appeal,WL.
cwolfQuote Reply
He never rounded the base. He put on the brakes before the bag and may have touched the bag on the first base side. He then turned and retreated to first. Since he never advanced past the bag he should not have had to re-tag it. I think the umpire made the wrong call based on the one replay they’ve shown.
melissaQuote Reply
This umpiring crew is uniformly awful. This is Froemming-esque incompetence.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]He never rounded the base. He put on the brakes before the bag and may have touched the bag on the first base side. He then turned and retreated to first. Since he never advanced past the bag he should not have had to re-tag it. I think the umpire made the wrong call based on the one replay they’ve shown.[/quote]If he never advanced past second, I don’t think he has to re-tag. Fucking umpires.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]He never rounded the base. He put on the brakes before the bag and may have touched the bag on the first base side. He then turned and retreated to first. Since he never advanced past the bag he should not have had to re-tag it. I think the umpire made the wrong call based on the one replay they’ve shown.[/quote]
That’s what I saw too. I don’t know how he was supposed to retag it since he never passed it.
WaLiQuote Reply
Fucking horseshit strikezone
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]That’s what I saw too. I don’t know how he was supposed to retag it since he never passed it.[/quote]Yeah, it looked like that to me also. Unless they say his left foot went past the base or some shit like that.
cwolfQuote Reply
Z threw about 20 strikes to Wallace. Shitty fucking umpires.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
WTF Colvin?
cwolfQuote Reply
Why the fuck didn’t Colvin take that?
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
fucking barney
dylanjQuote Reply
Fukudome would’ve called Barney off.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Vintage.
mikjones24Quote Reply
Keystone Kubs
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Fukudome would’ve called Barney off.[/quote]Barney’s reaction at the end made it seem like Colvin might have called him off. If he did, it was too late and Colvin just stood there anyway.
cwolfQuote Reply
Sam Fuld would have caught that and re-touched 2nd. base.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Colvin has looked really shitty in right the last two nights.
melissaQuote Reply
The beat guys are going to crucify Z for this inning.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
*wife hears me bitching*
W: What happened?
M: Just the Cubbies being the Cubbies again
W: Ah shit.
WaLiQuote Reply
Mark Riggins just remembered he had a phone to the bullpen.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Colvin has looked really shitty in right the last two nights.[/quote]He’s terrible in RF so far in the bigs.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The beat guys are going to crucify Z for this inning.[/quote]
The usual legion of dumbshit Cubs fans already are.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Sam Fuld would have caught that and re-touched 2nd. base.[/quote](dying laughing)
cwolfQuote Reply
Not an ace
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Mark Riggins just remembered he had a phone to the bullpen.[/quote]He had to wait until Quade was finished reciting “Ode to a Grecian Urn” to him in the dugout.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Fuckity fuck fuck fuck.
cwolfQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The beat guys are going to crucify Z for this inning.[/quote]
Exerted too much energy on his homerun.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Awwww shit.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
well this fucking sucks
dylanjQuote Reply
New Z will not destroy Gatorade machine tonight.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube] dumbshit Cubs fans[/quote]
Redundant phrase is redundant.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
what does it take to get Quade to pull a guy?
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]what does it take to get Quade to pull a guy?[/quote]
I don’t think he knows that’s his job?
WaLiQuote Reply
Sullivan and Wittenmyer are probably pissing their Osh Kosh B’Gosh overalls in anticipation of being able to eviscerate Z.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]what does it take to get Quade to pull a guy?[/quote]He’s only on Canto IV of “The Wasteland” in dugout. He’ll get to it when he’s finished.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Didnt the Cubs have bases loaded no-body out earlier and not score?
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
This umpire is blinder than Helen Keller.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
time for marshall wood & marmol
Who blows it today?
I’m going to double down on Wood
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Didnt the Cubs have bases loaded no-body out earlier and not score?[/quote]
Yeah. Soriano hit a scorcher that was picked cleanly on a nice play by the 3B for a 5-2-3 double play. Shitty luck.
I also wonder how many people realized that Colvin should’ve had out #2, keeping at least that run on third from scoring and letting Z relax a bit. Not to mention the dribbler bunt and the other random etc.’s…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I had to turn that off for a minute. Too obnoxious.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
If Garza or Dempster were starting, everyone would be making excuses about how they should’ve been out of the inning, but weren’t thanks to shitty fielding. But this will all be a Z meltdown even if he doesn’t destroy the Gatorade machine.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
that was a piss poor inning from Z but what can you do.
We gotta find a way to take this though
dylanjQuote Reply
6-0 when I step away. 6-5 when I come back. That’s so Cubs.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]If Garza or Dempster were starting, everyone would be making excuses about how they should’ve been out of the inning, but weren’t thanks to shitty fielding. But this will all be a Z meltdown even if he doesn’t destroy the Gatorade machine.[/quote]Yep. Sullivan and Wittemyer have already written the column and are enjoying a feast of lembas bread.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Well Blackhawks game is coming on. Time to switch the game.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]6-0 when I step away. 6-5 when I come back. That’s so Cubs.[/quote]You missed a classic Cub half inning there, mb.
cwolfQuote Reply
god almighty this ump is terrible
dylanjQuote Reply
Wait unilt 5 runs score to relieve Z…let’s see what happens
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I really wouldn’t mind it at all if Z choked Tyler Colvin. That was just complete stupidity on his part. Running around out there with his head up his ass.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]I really wouldn’t mind it at all if Z choked Tyler Colvin. That was just complete stupidity on his part. Running around out there with his head up his ass.[/quote]
I’d buy a $10 bleacher ticket to see that.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
For as much as Castro gets roasted for “rookie mistakes” you won’t here too much about this for either Barney or Colvin
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]For as much as Castro gets roasted for “rookie mistakes” you won’t here too much about this for either Barney or Colvin[/quote]I won’t be shocked to hear Castro blasted for the baserunning non-blunder and nothing about the Barney-Colvin Abbott & Costello routine.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Nice pitch by Marshall. Strike four.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I won’t be shocked to hear Castro blasted for the baserunning non-blunder and nothing about the Barney-Colvin Abbott & Costello routine.[/quote]
Lazy latino was being lazy and skipped tagging up.
Both the white boys were busting their ass trying to get that fly ball. The just both wanted it too much.
WaLiQuote Reply
the thing about our pen is that marshall, wood & marmol are a strong back 3 but in all these games our offense scores 4-6 runs and the just stops. We don’t tack on shit the rest of the game
dylanjQuote Reply
The Starlin Castro Show that half.
cwolfQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]the thing about our pen is that marshall, wood & marmol are a strong back 3 but in all these games our offense scores 4-6 runs and the just stops. We don’t tack on shit the rest of the game[/quote]
And the other team has 3-5 so there is no margin for error.
melissaQuote Reply
Castro is the reason I am still watching this game instead of getting more of my paper written… He is so much fun to watch.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
Colvin will get a chance to redeem himself.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Peasants! Arst thou conversing?
BerseliusQuote Reply
So did Z just lose it in the 6th or did Houston just finally get through?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]So did Z just lose it in the 6th or did Houston just finally get through?[/quote]
Some of it was fielding-dependent.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Peasants! Arst thou conversing?[/quote]Nay, m’lord!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Dammit, that’s another hard out. Soto has some shit luck.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]So did Z just lose it in the 6th or did Houston just finally get through?[/quote]Z got squeezed by the ump, started getting pitches up in the zone, and then the Keystone Kubs showed up.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Yeah, that inning was a result of some bad calls, defensive adventures, and lucky rolls. Z probably should’ve been out of it with 2 or 3 runs.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
9 K, 4 BB in 38 PA for Colvin.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Can we trade Tyler Colvin for Jon Lieber?
Aisle424Quote Reply
I hate Colvin. I can’t wait til Fukudome gets back
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]what does it take to get Quade to pull a guy?[/quote]Zambrano only threw 99 pitches after an entire game of using the bullpen yesterday. I don’t think it’s too much to ask that your number 2 starter gives you at least 100 pitches after a game like yesterday. Grabow had to stay in there and pitch shitty because there were no other relievers worth using. Zambrano can do the same.
mb21Quote Reply
True Grit time
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Can we trade Tyler Colvin for Jon Lieber?[/quote](dying laughing) I don’t want to trade Colvin. I want him to play every day. I couldn’t care less how it affects the 2011 team. He needs some experience at the big league level and the Cubs are never even going to know if he’s good enough to be a 4th outfielder the way they use him.
mb21Quote Reply
Never thought I’d be glad to see Colvin out and Reed in. Reed’s a gamer.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Bob Brenly extols the Reedz’ virtues.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Gamer with a good AB before gamely popping out.
cwolfQuote Reply
I’m going to play Robot Unicorn Attack. Tell me if we lose.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
SAFE.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Good job by Castro and Barney to get the insurance run.
cwolfQuote Reply
ROFL ROFL ROFL
Three-base error.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Is that considered a two-base error or a three-base error if he was never supposed to be on first anyway?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Where was Hunter Pence on backing that up?
mb21Quote Reply
I’m assuming a 3-base error
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’m assuming a 3-base error[/quote]
Correct
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Where was Hunter Pence on backing that up?[/quote]Not a good inning for the Astros OF. Barney took second because the CF basically lobbed the ball back in.
cwolfQuote Reply
If Aneury Rodriguez shits the bed, would you call it an Aneurysm?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) I don’t want to trade Colvin. I want him to play every day. I couldn’t care less how it affects the 2011 team. He needs some experience at the big league level and the Cubs are never even going to know if he’s good enough to be a 4th outfielder the way they use him.[/quote]
Sure, but I just feel like he is Brant Brown Part Deux. The book seems to be out on him.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Plus it seems like he is the kind of prospect that Hendry could still extract decent talent in return, a la the Brown/Lieber deal.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Colvin for McCutchen?
mb21Quote Reply
Or Colvin for McCutchen and Alvarez?
mb21Quote Reply
Then flip him for Nolasco.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
Cubs should just call up BJax.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Or Colvin for McCutchen and Alvarez?[/quote]No, McCutchen would be blocked by Reed.
GBTSQuote Reply
If the Cubs did trade Colvin I’d hope it’s for someone who is still making league minimum for the next 2 years like he is. He’s not good, but when you consider the value he adds for league minimum compared to what Soriano and Zambrano do for a combined $37 million you’re far better off with Colvin. I guess that’s what I’m getting at. If the Cubs trade anybody it has to be the guys making lots of money. Soriano, Zambrano, Fukudome should be the first to go.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Cubs should just call up BJax.[/quote]I’d like that, but I doubt Byrd would like getting moved to RF and possibly platooning with Fukudome or maybe they’d do a 3-way platoon with Byrd, Fukudome and Colvin. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Marmol in a non-save situation a day and half after a 346 pitch outing…Let’s See What Happens
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Marmol in a non-save situation a day and half after a 346 pitch outing…Let’s See What Happens[/quote]tomorrow is an off day.
mb21Quote Reply
StL has 12 runs in the 4th inning vs. AZ. That’s what we call stomping a mudhole in someone’s ass and then walking it dry.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’d like that, but I doubt Byrd would like getting moved to RF and possibly platooning with Fukudome or maybe they’d do a 3-way platoon with Byrd, Fukudome and Colvin. (dying laughing)[/quote]
BJax can play RF. He has plenty of experience there and we don’t need him to immediately come in and take the CF duties. *shrug* I’d love to see what he can do. And for that matter, if Vitters plays great for a full two months or so and Pena is still playing poorly, call him up and let him play at 1B.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]tomorrow is an off day.[/quote]I still don’t like it. Marmol’s now thrown almost 50 pitches in 2 and a half days.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
The Cubs offense has preformed much better then I expected them too so far. I know it’s largely unsustainable, but if the starting pitching is going to continue to struggle, the bullpen will get worn out fast. That’s bad news, but it won’t quite be as dire if they can continue to preform above expectations offensively.
The roller coaster ride to .500 continues.
ZappBranniganQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]tomorrow is an off day.[/quote]
…and then it’s Friday Friday.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Who cares? Marmol always throws an assload of pitches. And he was already fully warmed up in preparation for a save situation. What would you do MO, warm up somebody knew with two outs and it just turning into a nonsave situation? There wouldn’t have been time for that. And with the off day it really doesn’t matter. If Marmol ever pitchse 2 times in 3 games he’s likely to throw 50 pitches in 2 and a half days.
Also, everybody worried about Castro, there’s really no need to be. He might swing at a lot of balls out of the zone, but he makes an outrageous amount of contact on them. His O-Contact rate is 81.7% and his Z-Contact is 98%. When he starts missing, that’s when there’ll be reason to worry.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]
Also, everybody worried about Castro, there’s really no need to be. He might swing at a lot of balls out of the zone, but he makes an outrageous amount of contact on them. His O-Contact rate is 81.7% and his Z-Contact is 98%. When he starts missing, that’s when there’ll be reason to worry.[/quote]
He will start missing them. And when he doesn’t miss them completely, he’ll be hitting them weakly somewhere. Hopefully he’ll start showing some better recognition of what is a ball and what is a strike.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I’m OK with it too. I bitch all the time that your best relievers should be pitching more, not less. If the Cubs gave Marmol 120 innings I’d consider it a brilliant use of resources.
As for Castro, it’s not about worrying about what he can or has done. It’s worrying about what he’s capable of doing. If he keeps swinging at that many pitches, it just takes value away from him. Plus, many of those numbers aren’t sustainable (.400 babip, 98% z-contact).
If Soriano was batting over .300 we’d still complain that he swings at everything. Castro isn’t quite as bad as Soriano, but he’s not a lot better either.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]He will start missing them. And when he doesn’t miss them completely, he’ll be hitting them weakly somewhere. Hopefully he’ll start showing some better recognition of what is a ball and what is a strike.[/quote]Exactly. Many very good hitters have failed at the big league level because they couldn’t figure what was a strike and what wasn’t. Castro is so good that he can get away with some of it, but imagine how good he can be if he develops that patience. I just don’t like that the numbers are going in the wrong direction.
mb21Quote Reply
newold thread up: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/cubs-player-power-rankings.htmlmb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]Who cares? Marmol always throws an assload of pitches. And he was already fully warmed up in preparation for a save situation. What would you do MO, warm up somebody knew with two outs and it just turning into a nonsave situation? There wouldn’t have been time for that. And with the off day it really doesn’t matter. If Marmol ever pitchse 2 times in 3 games he’s likely to throw 50 pitches in 2 and a half days.
Also, everybody worried about Castro, there’s really no need to be. He might swing at a lot of balls out of the zone, but he makes an outrageous amount of contact on them. His O-Contact rate is 81.7% and his Z-Contact is 98%. When he starts missing, that’s when there’ll be reason to worry.[/quote]I’d have had another RP warming up with Marmol as soon as the Cubs Barney knocked in Castro. Can’t hurt. I hate the closer pitching in non-save situations, unless he’s had a long-ish layoff. And just because Marmol can throw a lot of pitches, doesn’t mean he should continue to throw a lot of pitches. I’m probably overworrying, but Riggins’ and Quade’s handling of the pitching staff thus far does not encourage me to trust them.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
That’s just not true though. Some guys are legitimately fine even swinging at bad pitches. I know its’ early in his career, but Castro is like Ichiro or Vladimir back in the day with his contact skills. Doesn’t matter if it’s at his feet or his head, he can make contact with it, and do so solidly.
Some guys can swing at a crapload of bad pitches and still get the job done. Castro, by all appearances so far, appears to be in that mold.
The other thing is, while Castro does tend to swing a lot. He also tends to work pretty deep counts before going nuts. He’s been ahead or even in the count in 36 PA this year and been behind only 15 times. He might swing at some bad pitches, but he does work counts and get himself in a good position to get a pitch to hit.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s a rare trait to pull off being like Ichiro or Vlad back in the day. But Castro isn’t exactly your every day talent.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]If Aneury Rodriguez shits the bed, would you call it an Aneurysm?[/quote]
I would indeed (dying laughing)
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]That’s just not true though. Some guys are legitimately fine even swinging at bad pitches. I know its’ early in his career, but Castro is like Ichiro or Vladimir back in the day with his contact skills. Doesn’t matter if it’s at his feet or his head, he can make contact with it, and do so solidly.
Some guys can swing at a crapload of bad pitches and still get the job done. Castro, by all appearances so far, appears to be in that mold.
The other thing is, while Castro does tend to swing a lot. He also tends to work pretty deep counts before going nuts. He’s been ahead or even in the count in 36 PA this year and been behind only 15 times. He might swing at some bad pitches, but he does work counts and get himself in a good position to get a pitch to hit.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s a rare trait to pull off being like Ichiro or Vlad back in the day. But Castro isn’t exactly your every day talent.[/quote]
I’d still prefer he learn a ball from a strike since I’m uncomfortable laying all my money on odds as long as him being one of the extremely rare breed that can solidly hit a ball no matter where it is pitched. That’s not special, that is freaky.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I’d still prefer he learn a ball from a strike since I’m uncomfortable laying all my money on odds as long as him being one of the extremely rare breed that can solidly hit a ball no matter where it is pitched. That’s not special, that is freaky.[/quote]
*shrug* If he starts whiffing, I’ll worry. But he’s only had a couple at bats where he’s just swung at everything. He eventually does lay off bad pitches and he sets himself up to get strikes thrown to him by working deep counts. I’d love for him to take a walk once in a while too instead of swinging. That’d be freaking awesome. But for right now, he’s not doing something unprecedented, just very rare.
DoogolasQuote Reply
The key word there is some. MOST players are not fine. All players would be better off being more disciplined. Imagine how damn good Vlad would have been if he was walking a lot more early in his career. By the way, Vlad took a lot of walks in many years so I think his plate discipline issues are always exaggerated.
Plus, lower that BABIP down to .320 or so and his wOBA drops below average.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]*shrug* If he starts whiffing, I’ll worry. But he’s only had a couple at bats where he’s just swung at everything. He eventually does lay off bad pitches and he sets himself up to get strikes thrown to him by working deep counts. I’d love for him to take a walk once in a while too instead of swinging. That’d be freaking awesome. But for right now, he’s not doing something unprecedented, just very rare.[/quote]Right now he’s getting lucky. He can’t sustain what he’s doing right now. Forget about the numbers he’s posted so far. We know his BABIP is going to regress. When it does, those numbers that look really good right now take a huge hit.
If he could post a .400+ babip I wouldn’t be saying much, but he can’t. This is just like last year. He got off to a great start and then struggled for awhile. To his credit he made the necessary adjustments.
The guy is only 21 so there’s plenty of time, but there are some red flags at this point. Goldstein was ridiculously wrong when it came to his speed, but completely right about his baserunning. Goldstein has also been right about his plate discipline and his power. He’s been wrong about something he had no control over: luck.
mb21Quote Reply
Vlad never got above 9% his first four years in the league. And through his first 250AB he walked right about 6%, which is what we can expect from Castro.
Vlad also K’d way way more than Castro. He had the same ability to hit balls from his toes to his eyes but not to the extent of Castro, who I think is quite comparable to Ichiro in that way.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Right now he’s getting lucky. He can’t sustain what he’s doing right now. Forget about the numbers he’s posted so far. We know his BABIP is going to regress. When it does, those numbers that look really good right now take a huge hit.
If he could post a .400+ babip I wouldn’t be saying much, but he can’t. This is just like last year. He got off to a great start and then struggled for awhile. To his credit he made the necessary adjustments.
The guy is only 21 so there’s plenty of time, but there are some red flags at this point. Goldstein was ridiculously wrong when it came to his speed, but completely right about his baserunning. Goldstein has also been right about his plate discipline and his power. He’s been wrong about something he had no control over: luck.[/quote]
Except it’s not necessarily luck. Take a look where he’s hitting balls. Bob is actually right, everything is going up the middle and most of them are line drives. After today he’s over 25% on the line drives. He has, including today, double digit hits up the middle. Nobody is going to shift towards the middle, and if they do, I imagine it’s very easy for a hitter to go ahead and pull the shit out of balls.
Certainly Castro isn’t going to have a BABIP of .380 all year, that’s almost impossible, but take a look at a guy like Derek Jeter, who throughout his career, has always put up very high BABIPs. Some guys do. Ichiro, again, is an example of that.
As long as Castro isn’t striking out, he can very easily hit .320, it won’t be that hard for him. He wears out the middle of the field, recognizes breaking balls fantastically and has outrageously good contact skills, and even with his overly aggressive style, he does work the count quite well.
DoogolasQuote Reply
For every Ichiro, Vlad or Jeter, there’s a Neifi, Patterson or Pie that we could compare him to. All I’m saying is that the odds of him having success at the big league level increase greatly if he improves his plate discipline. I’m also saying that it’s not at all a good sign for any player to show signs of decline in areas that you expect to improve. Right now those are being hidden by his fantastic numbers.
All I really cared about this season with regards to Castro was that he showed some improvement. I don’t really care what his numbers are. A lot of that is luck. I wanted to see a higher walk percentage, fewer swinging strikes, a little more power and improved defense. To Castro’s credit he started to show improved power and his defense appears to be improved, but the other two things have gone the wrong way.
mb21Quote Reply
25% line drive rate by itself is not something that can be sustained over a long period of time. There’s little skill in hitting line drives.
Look, Doogalas, I’m not complaining as much as you may think. I’m merely pointing out what is going to make him a better player and that there are some trends right now that raise red flags. I’m also more than willing to admit it’s a very tiny sample and that most of the numbers are useless, but the fact he’s swinging at damn near everything is the most concerning thing so far. Is it possible he can continue to swing at everything and be awesome? Sure. It’s much more likely that he’ll slowly regress and never be any better than he is now and probably even be worse.
The most important point is that the guy is 21 year old.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]For every Ichiro, Vlad or Jeter, there’s a Neifi, Patterson or Pie that we could compare him to. All I’m saying is that the odds of him having success at the big league level increase greatly if he improves his plate discipline. I’m also saying that it’s not at all a good sign for any player to show signs of decline in areas that you expect to improve. Right now those are being hidden by his fantastic numbers.
All I really cared about this season with regards to Castro was that he showed some improvement. I don’t really care what his numbers are. A lot of that is luck. I wanted to see a higher walk percentage, fewer swinging strikes, a little more power and improved defense. To Castro’s credit he started to show improved power and his defense appears to be improved, but the other two things have gone the wrong way.[/quote]
But he has absolutely nothing in common with them. They ALWAYS swung and missed a ton. An absolute ton. Castro does not and never has swung and missed often.
Yes, if his plate discipline gets better, that would be absolutely idea. But that’s not likely to happen until he starts hitting for more power and pitchers are more willing to pitch around him.
He also really hasn’t “declined” that one AB he had that was I believe 13 pitches, all but one was out of the strike zone. It was a GOD awful at bad for him, without that at bat his O-Swing% is under 30%.
I want to see a higher walk%, his swing strike% is actually very, very low.
Castro really isn’t declining anywhere. It’s a matter of one at bat being God awful. He’ll get a few walks eventually. And he will take pitches, he’s shown he knows the zone well, that’s how he manages to always make contact, you can’t continually make contact with pitches out of the zone if you don’t know where the pitches are going. He almost never swings over or under balls.
It’s super rare, his type of player, but they do exist. He is WAY more likely to be successful if he learns to take some pitches and walk, I’m not denying that. But i also think that he will, and that in the next four or five games, you’ll see his O-Swing% go down quite a bit. Cause he really doesn’t swing at that many bad pitches. He had a terrible game the other day where he swung at absolutely everything, but that’s the only game where he’s just swung at every pitch in sight.
DoogolasQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]25% line drive rate by itself is not something that can be sustained over a long period of time. There’s little skill in hitting line drives.
Look, Doogalas, I’m not complaining as much as you may think. I’m merely pointing out what is going to make him a better player and that there are some trends right now that raise red flags. I’m also more than willing to admit it’s a very tiny sample and that most of the numbers are useless, but the fact he’s swinging at damn near everything is the most concerning thing so far. Is it possible he can continue to swing at everything and be awesome? Sure. It’s much more likely that he’ll slowly regress and never be any better than he is now and probably even be worse.
The most important point is that the guy is 21 year old.[/quote]
That’s actually completely wrong. LD% is very much a skill. There are a lot of guys who hit LD’s more than others, throughout their entire career. The type of ball you put in play is absolutely a skill.
DoogolasQuote Reply
Do a google search for line drive skill tangotiger or line drive skill colin wyers. Or just line drive skill sabermetrics. You’ll see it’s not a skill.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Doogolas]That’s actually completely wrong. LD% is very much a skill. There are a lot of guys who hit LD’s more than others, throughout their entire career. The type of ball you put in play is absolutely a skill.[/quote]
Adam Dunn, Neifi Perez and Derek Jeter all have a LD% right around 20%.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply