Complete rebuild, Cubs re-sign Reed Johnson, trade Sean Marshall

The Cubs have re-signed Reed Johnson to a one-year contract. The contract is pending a physical. No word yet on the amount he was signed for, but I’m sure it’s under $2 million. As a back-up, Johnson had a fantastic season last year for the Cubs. He hit .309/.348/.467. His wOBA was .354 and he was worth 1.2 fWAR and 1.2 rWAR in 266 plate appearances.

The Cubs outfield is getting crowded. David DeJesus was signed earlier this offseason. Marlon Byrd is returning for his final year of the contract. Alfonso Soriano has 3 years remaining on his. The Cubs also have Tony Campana on the 40-man roster who has a chance to make the team out of spring training. A year or two away is Matt Szczur who is also on the roster and then there’s the Cubs top prospect Brett Jackson who is very close to MLB ready, if not ready right now.

Clearing some space in the outfield brings up the more important news, which is that David Kaplan is hearing from several baseball sources that the Cubs are more likely than ever to undergo a complete and total rebuild.

After speaking with several baseball sources over the past few days I am hearing that a complete and total rebuild of the Cubs is more likely than ever to take place during the remainder of the off-season. I have confirmed that Sean Marshall is definitely on the block and he is well aware of that fact. The latest speculation has Marshall going to the Reds but those same sources do not believe that a deal for left-handed starter Travis Wood is as close as has been portrayed.

However, Marshall along with several other players on the Cubs roster are all being shopped as Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and company look to maximize their value as they look to completely overhaul the team. In speaking with a current major league executive from outside Chicago who would only speak with me on the condition of anonymity he was brutally honest in evaluating where the Cubs are right now.

“If you are completely honest about the current roster that Theo and Jed inherited I don’t see more than a handful of pieces that a championship type team would want to have on their roster. Garza, Castro, Marshall, perhaps Marmol if they can get his wildness under control, and maybe another bullpen piece or two and that’s about it,” he told me.

And by the time they are able to contend Marshall and Marmol will be relatively old for a reliever and Garza will cost a shitload of money. It’s too bad the Cubs don’t have a couple more Garza’s they could trade to add some elite talent to their farm system. The reality is that even if they trade several of their players, they’re not going to get all that much in return. Matt Garza has a lot of value. He probably has even more value than his trade surplus value would indicate. The same is probably true of Sean Marshall. Other than that, though, the Cubs just don’t have a whole lot. Geovany Soto has struggled in odd numbered years, but has two years remaining at below market price. He’s never going to be the excellent catcher we thought he might be, but he could be useful to any team needing a catcher.

Carlos Marmol probably doesn’t have that much value. He’s due $16.8 million over the next two seasons. That’s about what he’ll provide in value so unless the Cubs are willing to eat some of the contract they can’t expect much in return. The Cubs won’t get anything but salary relief for Alfonso Soriano and the amount they save may be minimal. They won’t get much of anything for Carlos Zambrano or Ryan Dempster. Randy Wells might bring something useful in return, but useful is about it. The same is true of Marlon Byrd.

A complete and total rebuild sounds wonderful, but it’s not like the Cubs are going to be selling that many valuable pieces. When Matt Garza is your most valuable trade piece you just aren’t going to replenlish an already weak farm system with much of an upgrade.

Bruce Levine reported on twitter that the Cubs and Reds have completed the trade for Travis Wood and two minor leaguers.


122 thoughts on “Complete rebuild, Cubs re-sign Reed Johnson, trade Sean Marshall”

  1. Wonder who the other two prospects are for the Cubs. But i like it. If nothing else this guy is Sean marshall but the cheaper version with a plus plus change instead of curve

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  2. [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Wonder who the other two prospects are for the Cubs. But i like it. If nothing else this guy is Sean marshall but the cheaper version with a plus plus change instead of curve[/quote]He also has 5 years of club control. For a setup man, that’s a pretty good haul. If the minor leaguers are of any consequence then it’s an even better trade.

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  3. [quote name=GBTS]Is Chapman still going to be in the Reds’ pen? That’s a filthy back end for lefties.[/quote]I read earlier today they may try him in the rotation.

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  4. [quote name=mb21]I read earlier today they may try him in the rotation.[/quote]I would be impressed if he can throw 103 mph in the 7th or 8th inning.

    Is that really really fast guy still available for trade?

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  5. My favorite commenter seems to have weighed in on this trade (dying laughing)

    [quote name=my favorite commenter of all time]Ok cubs fans let me be honest Theo isn’t as great as he is credited for he didn’t build the core of the 2004 team Dan did he will rebuild the o’s now you don’t have the shot writers and those people tell you but could Theo rebuild the cubs yes.remember Theo didn’t get pedro manny papi v-tek Lowe Nixon damon[/quote]

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  6. [quote name=shawndgoldman]This is good news, yes humans?[/quote]I think it is. I don’t think the Cubs end up getting much in return for these guys, but it’s a start.

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  7. [quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]My favorite commenter seems to have weighed in on this trade (dying laughing)[/quote]Get that on a T-shirt now.

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  8. not sure what to make of wood. great numbers in 2010; pretty terrible last year. and, yeah, that ground ball rate is frighteningly low.

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  9. Hasn’t Wood’s FIP been decent despite pitching in that barnyard? IIRC, he has a pretty low walk rate and if nothing else should be able to eat up innings.

    Maybe I’m way off here, but I see Wood and Marshall being roughly equivalent talent-level wise. The discrepancy in years of team control is a huge difference, though. Plus the Cubs get 2 prospects in the deal.

    Maybe we’ll swing them for Theo.

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  10. Hahahaha… Wood’s career road FIP is HIGHER than his career home FIP.

    I’m going to crawl back into my academic hole now, where it takes months to prove me wrong instead of minutes.

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  11. While I am of the opinion that the Cubs could have built an imposter-contender to keep the mindless masses (including me) at bay with little damage to the long-term future, if this is the road, so be it, I’m in. Let’s get these shitty years over with.

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  12. I’m going to crawl back into my academic hole now, where it takes months to prove me wrong instead of minutes.

    (dying laughing)

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  13. [quote name=shawndgoldman]Hahahaha… Wood’s career road FIP is HIGHER than his career home FIP.

    I’m going to crawl back into my academic hole now, where it takes months to prove me wrong instead of minutes.[/quote]A player performs better at home.

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  14. [quote name=cwyers]Actually, I take that back. I think some people are highly entertained by seeing how low a team can get its M$/MW. I just ain’t one of them.[/quote]
    this, pretty much.

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  15. [quote name=Smokestack Lightning]While I am of the opinion that the Cubs could have built an imposter-contender to keep the mindless masses (including me) at bay with little damage to the long-term future, if this is the road, so be it, I’m in. Let’s get these shitty years over with.[/quote]That’s the same way I feel about it. It’s going to suck watching this team over the next few years, but hopefully within a couple years we can start to see the minor league system kicking ass and giving us a reason to hope.

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  16. [quote name=GW]if i had to guess, hitters just stopped chasing against wood last year.[/quote]He threw significantly fewer fastballs last season. Not sure what that means, but it stands out more than anything else to me.

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  17. When you add the 3 types of fastball together, the percentage is almost the same. I don’t know how accurate pitch f/x is at distinguishing between the types.

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  18. [quote name=ACT]When you add the 3 types of fastball together, the percentage is almost the same. I don’t know how accurate pitch f/x is at distinguishing between the types.[/quote]Probably not that accurate, but like with Garza last year the change is significant enough that it catches it. It seems to me the Reds had him pitching in a different way last year than the year before. The Cubs may do the same thing so I don’t know that it means anything.

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  19. if i said before offseason we could get travis wood for marshall would people have been estatic?

    What about Marshall for wood +2?

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  20. [quote name=bubblesdachimp]if i said before offseason we could get travis wood for marshall would people have been estatic?

    What about Marshall for wood +2?[/quote]I would have been happy. The Cubs aren’t winning in 2012 and Marshall is a free agent after that. I’d take that deal.

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  21. Now lets go out and get Anthony Gose or Arbencia from Toronto from Toronto and Rizzo from the Padres for soto.

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  22. [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Now lets go out and get Anthony Gose or Arbencia from Toronto from Toronto and Rizzo from the Padres for soto.[/quote]I’ll do that after dinner.

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  23. Comment from HBT article:

    Exellent move Hoyer!

    Marshall was a left handed starter who just couldn’t seem to put it together three years ago. Now, they turned him into the exact same person, who is cheaper and under long term team control.

    Saving the three million is not important, but having an additional $3m they can package with Soriano so someone will take him is huge.

    And the prospects (probably mostly not-real-prospects) are just sugar coating on top.

    Sounds about right.

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  24. I think it’s completely irrelevant what Marshall was 3 years ago. I think the trade is a good deal because Marshall’s current contract is worth less than Wood’s.

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  25. [quote name=ACT]I think it’s completely irrelevant what Marshall was 3 years ago. I think the trade is a good deal because Marshall’s current contract is worth less than Wood’s.[/quote]I think the commenter is just saying that you pretty much got the same guy, but younger and cheaper. So it’s consistent.

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  26. Bill Buckner was more a Cub than Red Sox. He was on the Cubs for 7 or 8 years and was one of their best players during that time. I was kind of upset when he was replaced by Leon Durham and didn’t get to be in on the ’84 playoff team. But then, Durham had a “Buckner moment” in the NLCS two years before Buckner’s more famous gaffe.

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  27. Let’s be honest ya’ll relievers get overpaid for at the deadline… The White Sox got a top prospect for Sergio Santos (Nestor Molina). We get Wood and two obscure prospects for someone more proven than Santos…. I’m not impressed.

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  28. Nestor Molina is a relief pitcher who also was never a top 100 prospect. I think people are remembering the rare occasion in which a reliever is traded for 30 top prospects. That actually doesn’t happen very often.

    The bottom line with this is that the Cubs got the most that they could. It’s not like there was a better deal and Jed and Theo talked it over and said let’s take the worse one.

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  29. I also think people are overrating Sean Marshall, but that’s not surprising because fans tend to overrate their own players.

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  30. cubs fans are beauties. they’ll sit and tell you they want a rebuild. the cubs trade a middle reliever for a back end mlb rotation guy and two prospects…and some bitch and moan like they just traded the second coming of mark derosa for a subway club.

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  31. short of getting mays and mantle in return i’m sure some cubs fans wouldn’t be happy.

    and the next dumbass that points to the 2012 season can go fuck themselves. 2012 has been chalked up. that’s part of the plan. how difficult is it to read the words from epstein when they hired him?

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  32. The Headline on Reds Reporter… (SB Nation Reds Blog)
    I’m not the only one who thinks the Cubs should’ve gotten more. But whatever. Cubs fans overrate their own players eh…

    Reds close to Saving Sean Marshall

    According to Bruce Levine at ESPNChicago.com, the Reds and Cubs are close to a deal that would bring Sean Marshall to Cincinnati in exchange for Travis Wood and two minor leaguers. Those had better be some really minor leaguers. Nickname credit should go to HighlifeMan21.

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  33. [quote name=ACT]I don’t think 1 year of Marshall is worth very much at all. Frankly, I’m surprised they got the deal they got.[/quote]
    amen, they got three bodies for that. count your lucky stars and move on to dumping the next player.

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  34. i think ac said it pretty well a few threads back. it’s pretty clear that the new cba has fucked the cubs wrt their rebuilding plans, which led some of us to speculate that they would shift their dollars to the ample free agent crop this offseason. they clearly aren’t going to do that, which is fine, but i’m not so sure why one would assume that rebuilding will automatically go smoothly. Just because we have the front office with the highest average IQ? I mean, would anyone really be surprised if this team still sucked in 2014? If so, why?

    there are more than a few of us that would be perfectly comfortable with a complete rebuild knowing that the management team was prepared to do whatever it took come draft and ifa season. it just became much more difficult to do that. i’m sure the revamped scouting department is talented and all, but there is just no substitute for the competitive advantage of being willing and able to drop an additional 10-15 million on young talent.

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  35. [quote name=2883]Let’s be honest ya’ll relievers get overpaid for at the deadline… The White Sox got a top prospect for Sergio Santos (Nestor Molina). We get Wood and two obscure prospects for someone more proven than Santos…. I’m not impressed.[/quote]
    Say what you will about Marshall being more proven…he’s never closed and that matters to most organizations. Santos has closed and has done it pretty well, he’s also a tick younger and signed long-term to a pretty decent contract. Marshall is almost 30 and almost a free agent.

    It’s a good trade. Sure the Cubs could have let it ride and attempted to trade Marshall at the deadline and gotten a bit more, but relievers can lose their value literally overnight. A couple of bad outings and Marshall wouldn’t be worth a salary dump.

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  36. [quote name=2883]The Headline on Reds Reporter… (SB Nation Reds Blog)
    I’m not the only one who thinks the Cubs should’ve gotten more. But whatever. Cubs fans overrate their own players eh…[/quote]

    Um…not sure how you construed it that way. What RR is clearly saying is that those minor leaguers better not be that good. “Really minor leaguers” = “really not that good”.

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  37. I mean, would anyone really be surprised if this team still sucked in 2014? If so, why?

    I think they’re going to suck in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and probably 2016. The farm system blows. There are only two young players who have any chance of being that valuable to a contending team (Castro and Jackson). I’m hoping we see the farm system significantly improved by 2014 and by 2015 or 2016 some of them are making an impact at the big league level with a steady stream behind them.

    I mentioned it at the time, but I don’t think it was a coincidence that Theo and Jed were hired for 5 years. A typical rebuilding plan takes 5 years. Ricketts gave them those 5 years knowing they were going to rebuild.

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  38. [quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Um…not sure how you construed it that way. What RR is clearly saying is that those minor leaguers better not be that good. “Really minor leaguers” = “really not that good”.[/quote]Yeah, most of the people in RR were pretty pissed off at the trade.

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  39. How much would you guys trade to acquire Sean Marshall? I wouldn’t give up shit to get him and I think he’s the best left-handed reliever in baseball. I’m just not going to trade anything for or sign long-term any non-ace reliever.

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  40. I’m not sure anyone thinks rebuilding will go smoothly, but this organization has been ready for a full rebuild my entire life. I’d like to see them try and I hope in the end it creates a solid foundation, but who knows? The Cubs could suck just as much in 5 years as they do now.

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  41. [quote name=mb21]I think they’re going to suck in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and probably 2016. [/quote]
    i think this is a distinct possibility.

    I’m hoping we see the farm system significantly improved by 2014 and by 2015 or 2016 some of them are making an impact at the big league level with a steady stream behind them.

    agreed, i just think it’s far from a sure thing.

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  42. [quote name=mb21]I’m not sure anyone thinks rebuilding will go smoothly, but this organization has been ready for a full rebuild my entire life. I’d like to see them try and I hope in the end it creates a solid foundation, but who knows? The Cubs could suck just as much in 5 years as they do now.[/quote]
    i really think the new cba was specifically designed to fuck the cubs/bosox and maybe a few others. the small market teams realized that their competitive advantage with the draft was gone, teams like the braves had never used it anyways, and the yankees will always be the big dogs in free agency.

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  43. I think it’s more than a distinct possibility, GW. Last year’s draft class pretty much makes up the elite prospects the Cubs might have. They’re a good 4 to 5 years away and most of them will get injured or fail miserably. Aside from getting lucky, which is entirely possible, I think it’s a sure thing this team sucks for the next 4 to 5 years.

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  44. keithlaw keithlaw
    @
    .@mcross1976 It’s Wood and two prospects. Given who I believe those two are, I like the deal for the Cubs.
    9 hours ago

    .

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  45. TC
    12/21/2011 at 3:12 am
    Cubs fans are saying its a bad trade unless Billy Hamilton and Neftali Soto come with him. The Cubs are still the number one most detested team for me because their fans are the most uneducated baseball fans in all of major league baseball. They are a scourge, a pox I tell you, a boil upon the baseball gods’ bottoms.

    Say what you want about the Cardinals, at least their fans know what they are talking about.

    .

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  46. Are these the same fans burning Pujols jerseys and forcing the city to hire a bodyguard around his statue? All teams have jackasses. There’s just more cubs fans than almost teams.

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  47. [quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Quote:

    TC
    12/21/2011 at 3:12 am
    Cubs fans are saying its a bad trade unless Billy Hamilton and Neftali Soto come with him. The Cubs are still the number one most detested team for me because their fans are the most uneducated baseball fans in all of major league baseball. They are a scourge, a pox I tell you, a boil upon the baseball gods’ bottoms.

    Say what you want about the Cardinals, at least their fans know what they are talking about.
    .[/quote] i think i’m agreeing with this for the most part.

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  48. It’s a bit late for Xmas, but I found the “Jack Benny old time radio collection” at thehistoricalatchive.com. Scratchy recordings, but 869 tracks, 17.6 days of listening if you never take a break, and reasonably priced. I can’t wait to see how it compares to the ACB ratings!

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  49. [quote name=wpbc]cubs fans are beauties. they’ll sit and tell you they want a rebuild. the cubs trade a middle reliever for a back end mlb rotation guy and two prospects…and some bitch and moan like they just traded the second coming of mark derosa for a subway club.[/quote]
    THIS

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  50. [quote name=wpbc]short of getting mays and mantle in return i’m sure some cubs fans wouldn’t be happy. [/quote]
    I certainly wouldn’t be. There’s no value at all in those two guys. None.

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  51. [quote name=shawndgoldman]I certainly wouldn’t be. There’s no value at all in those two guys. None.[/quote]Are we talking about Mays and Mantle, or the two as-yet-unnamed prospects in the Sean Marshall trade?

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  52. The minor leaguers are rumored to be Kevin Coddington and Travis Webb. Pending physicals.

    not sure why klaw would be excited about either of those two, he must have been referencing the hamilton rumors earlier.

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  53. keithlaw keithlaw
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    .@RedlegsWriter I haven’t said the names because I might be wrong, or they might change last second. Just keeping it general to be safe
    3 minutes ago

    keithlaw keithlaw
    I think so. They’re not zeroes. RT @jonf1220: @keithlaw will cubs fans be happy with either of the two prospects?
    14 minutes ago

    i like the trade from what we know so far

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  54. [quote name=GW]not sure why klaw would be excited about either of those two, he must have been referencing the hamilton rumors earlier.[/quote]

    who are those guys?

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  55. [quote name=Rice Cube]Are we talking about Mays and Mantle, or the two as-yet-unnamed prospects in the Sean Marshall trade?[/quote]
    Mays and Mantle. They are way past the peaks in their age curves. Especially Mantle.

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  56. [quote name=shawndgoldman]Mays and Mantle. They are way past the peaks in their age curves. Especially Mantle.[/quote]Is this like a dead joke?

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  57. BTW, how’s the alien hunting or whatever you do at NASA?

    Also an opportunity to post one of my favorite Calvin and Hobbes panels:

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  58. DEXTER SPOILER

    DEXTER SPOILER

    DEXTER SPOILER

    Kind of weird that Dexter had to create a subplot where Deb wants to fuck her own brother in order for her to discover he’s a serial killer, but whatever, I’ll take it.

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  59. [quote name=Rice Cube]BTW, how’s the alien hunting or whatever you do at NASA?

    Also an opportunity to post one of my favorite Calvin and Hobbes panels:

    [/quote]
    It’s going alright. I’m just about to submit an article that goes through what we can (and more importantly CANNOT) say about the habitability of all these planets we’ve been finding.

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  60. [quote name=Rice Cube]Is this like a dead joke?[/quote]
    Yeah, pretty low I suppose. More just that they’re retired and old…. and yeah in one case also dead. Point is, neither one will bring much value.

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  61. [quote name=Rice Cube]God —> DC

    Or, in non-meme terms, Mark DeRosa is close to a deal with the Nationals.[/quote]
    Just in time for them to become halfway decent…

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  62. [quote name=shawndgoldman]Yeah, pretty low I suppose. More just that they’re retired and old…. and yeah in one case also dead. Point is, neither one will bring much value.[/quote]My comment was probably one of the memes you missed while you were being a productive member of society (dying laughing)

    Zombie Mickey Mantle and old-as-hell Willie Mays could probably still play better baseball than Koyie Hill though.

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  63. [quote name=Rice Cube]My comment was probably one of the memes you missed while you were being a productive member of society (dying laughing)

    Zombie Mickey Mantle and old-as-hell Willie Mays could probably still play better baseball than Koyie Hill though.[/quote]
    Yeah memes move fast these days. Is this an ACB meme or an interwebz meme?

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  64. [quote name=wpbc]cubs fans are beauties. they’ll sit and tell you they want a rebuild. the cubs trade a middle reliever for a back end mlb rotation guy and two prospects…and some bitch and moan like they just traded the second coming of mark derosa for a subway club.[/quote]That’s only a problem if the people who complain about the Marshall trade are the exact same ones who were calling for the rebuild. There are always going to be differences in opinion and complaints about specific moves and organizational philosophy and that’s fine.

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  65. [quote name=Rice Cube]So do you guys just run the collected images from telescopes through some kind of light spectrum analysis program to determine what the atmosphere is, its temperature and the water content etc?[/quote]
    That’s what we will do. For now we just see the affect of the planet on the parent star’s light. We either see a “red/blue shift of the star as it wobbles back and forth from the gravitational tug of the planet… or see the star’s light dim as the planet passes in front of it. So we just get the mass or the radius of the planet, as well as its orbital properties – including orbiting distance. From that we can tell if it’s in the “Goldilocks zone where liquid water could be habitable… and if it’s potentially rocky. But for now, that’s about all we can say.

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  66. Most of my research is on the follow-up mission(s), which if they fly do what you’re talking about: trying to characterize the planet (and search for life on it) by analyzing the atmospheric composition via spectroscopy.

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  67. I think it’d be easier if you just invented warp drive and go there.

    (obviously kidding, but not really…warp drive would be badass)

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  68. [quote name=Rice Cube]I think it’d be easier if you just invented warp drive and go there.

    (obviously kidding, but not really…warp drive would be badass)[/quote]
    This is not a fake site:
    http://www.100yss.org/

    #we’re talking about motherfucking interstellar travel

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  69. [quote name=Aisle424]Today at my work we had cupcakes.[/quote]
    I brought sugar cookies to work today. And because I’m a huge nerd that works with other huge nerds, they were in the shape of Star Wars spaceships.

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  70. [quote name=shawndgoldman]I brought sugar cookies to work today. And because I’m a huge nerd that works with other huge nerds, they were in the shape of Star Wars spaceships.[/quote]
    I really just wanted to juxtapose the cool part of your job of finding planets where there might be extra terrestrial life versus my job where the coolest thing that occurs is when someone brings baked goods.

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  71. [quote name=Aisle424]I really just wanted to juxtapose the cool part of your job of finding planets where there might be extra terrestrial life versus my job where the coolest thing that occurs is when someone brings baked goods.[/quote]
    he had to one-up you in the one thing you thought you had

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  72. [quote name=Bottleasmoke]It’s a bit late for Xmas, but I found the “Jack Benny old time radio collection” at thehistoricalatchive.com. Scratchy recordings, but 869 tracks, 17.6 days of listening if you never take a break, and reasonably priced. I can’t wait to see how it compares to the ACB ratings![/quote]
    You really can’t complain for $0.017 per episode, but there are plenty of places where you can download episodes for free, or listen to them on podcasts, etc., if you just want to sample a couple and save on the delivery charges.

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  73. [quote name=shawndgoldman]I brought sugar cookies to work today. And because I’m a huge nerd that works with other huge nerds, they were in the shape of Star Wars spaceships.[/quote]I’m thinking Mon Calamari motherships? Or maybe Death Stars.

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  74. [quote name=bubblesdachimp]No bubbles is excited to yell at him how awesome he is![/quote]I have to admit, it would be pretty cool if a chimp did that.

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  75. [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Man, I’m exhausted from all that baseball talk yesterday.[/quote]
    But now you don’t have to talk about it for another year or so.

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  76. [quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Man, I’m exhausted from all that baseball talk yesterday.[/quote]I figured you’d be sleeping in today.

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  77. [quote name=mb21]I figured you’d be sleeping in today.[/quote]Just got to that episode in Breaking Bad. We are loving Season 3 so far.

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  78. Hi my friend my name is “Ethan”! I would like to mention this post is magnificent, exceptional written and contain almost all vital infos.

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