OSS: Cubs sweep their way to a nice win total.
Three up:
- Kyle Hendricks keeps doing what he’s been doing, pitching into the eighth inning one start after he pitched a complete game shutout. his 2.17 ERA is second only to Clayton Kershaw, and might end up at number one if Kershaw misses enough time to fail to officially qualify for the ERA title. As a team the Cubs have four starters in the top 20 on the ERA leaderboard.
- For all the baserunners the Cubs had early against A’s starter Sean Manaea, the two biggest plays of the game WPA-wise were solo shots by Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler. Bryant’s been in a slump since the break, though you can really only call it a slump compared to his usual numbers as opposed to actual ‘bad’ hitting, so it’s nice to see him get a hold of one. I was listening on the radio during Soler’s shot, but it sounds like it was another 150mph frozen rope that probably left a baseball-shaped hole in whatever it hit.
- The Cardinals lost a series at home to the Atlanta Braves, and the Cubs are now 11.5 games up in the division.
Three down:
- The Cubs left a lot of runners on base early, but you had to feel they were going to come through eventually. The most spectacular sequence was when the Cubs came away empty with bases loaded in the third. Rizzo grounded out and they nailed the lead runner, then Zobrist hit a screaming line drive right at the A’s first baseman to double off Rizzo.
- Willson Contreras had the roughest day at the plate, going 0-4 with two strikeouts and leaving five runners on.
- Not much else to complain about Cubs wise, so I might as well complain about national news. Once the Yankees traded Miller and Chapman it was clear that they were waving the flag, so why the hell not start Rodriguez at DH, at least until he got to 700 home runs? They’re still paying him the same amount of money. Meh.
Next up: Cubs get a valuable travel day on the way back from the west coast, and host the west coast based California Mike Trouts of Disneyland to start another long homestand.
Comments
I’m not sure the A’s even merit the Conan pic, but a sweep is a sweep (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Maybe the however many games in a row does?
JoshQuote Reply
Dang, Kyle Hendricks. I still can’t believe he’s doing this well. I thought he was 4th/5th starter at best. Oops.
EdwinQuote Reply
You’re not the only one. With far fewer free swingers in the league and a tighter zone, it’ll be much harder rack up madduxes like the man himself, but the Dartmouth grad with his borderline great control, excellent changeup, limited velocity, and rising groundball rate (presumably with similarly weak batted balls) should just have his name officially changed to Hendrux to mark his auspicious skills.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Anybody know what Maddux’s fastball got up to when he was young? His average fastball velocity was just 85.8mph (!!!) in 2002 when the data started being recorded.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I remember him throwing about 92 mph. Maybe 93 once in awhile. Considering when debuted, he had pretty good velocity. He’d easily have had a better than average fastball in terms of velocity.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hendricks reminds me of Maddux most because of the soft contact. He’s almost certainly going to regress, but he’s been an above average pitcher since he came into the league. I’m still amazed the media made up some 5th starter controversy in spring training.
dmick89Quote Reply
I like that Hendricks can go deeper into games, but he shouldn’t have been out there in the 8th yesterday. Maybe not even the 7th. I’ve said it before, but no Cubs starter should be pitching in the 7th or later unless they have a no hitter, the bullpen desperately needs rest or they lead by 4 runs or more.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Same with Arrieta earlier in the series. The FO has been talking about wanting to limit its starters innings a bit so they don’t run out of gas like may have happened last postseason, and pulling them in these situations is the easiest way to do it short of going to a six-man rotation, which ugh. Tough to judge how much personality management is going on with Joe though.
berseliusQuote Reply
Hendricks is approaching down-ballot Cy consideration this year. He isnt that good, but what a year.
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
I like to discount my own optimism with a healthy amount of disbelief as well, but I also know challenging that disbelief leads closer to the truth. So I ask what if he is this good? which leads me to follow up with what does that look like?
If he truly has such command of his fastball and his change and taking a bit off the fastball gets him better movement, he could be this good. I don’t think he could ever be as valuable and efficient as peak Maddux because the league has changed, but he has been improving at beguiling hitters enough to make the comparison is valid.
How much longer before we say he is as good as he has been?
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Three years, six days and five hours. Mark your calendar.
JoshQuote Reply
Josh,
False, the correct answer is as soon as the Cubs spend all of their money on a subpar pitcher who will be out of the league in two years even though Hendricks is willing to work out a deal.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Everyone is different, but it usually takes me at least three years before I think a starter is as good as his numbers.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
And six days and five hours.
JoshQuote Reply
I just have a hard time trusting players that break the mold the way that Hendricks does. For someone like Hendricks to be generating the GB% and K% he does while also having the velocity he does just isn’t something I can feel comfortable with, at least at this point. Even his pitch mix of being a RHP with a heavy Sinker/Changeup approach is fairly unorthodox. Maybe that’s part of what’s fueling his success, along with great deception/control, but at some point I feel like his K%, BB%, BABIP, IFBB%, and LOB% are all going to regress just enough to where he’s an average pitcher instead of an above average pitcher.
But for now I’ll take the current version of Hendricks.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
I tend to agree, but even an average starting pitcher is valuable. An average player is valuable. I think Cubs fans will ultimately be disappointed when he regresses to what he is, but it’s still an average pitcher. A bit better probably.
dmick89Quote Reply
shit i already have something scheduled, can we push this back by a day?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
hendricks’s numbers obviously look great but i think what people may not realize is how short his leash is. he is in absolutely zero high-leverage situations. easy to keep a low ERA when you get yanked at the first sign of trouble.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
I disagree with this. If he is making it into the seventh inning without high leverage situations, he is not getting himself into bad situations which is itself enormously valuable—quite possibly the most valuable contribution of a starting pitcher. And bearing of leverage on ERA is almost certainly negligible for starters—at least as I see it. Does anyone know of research either way?
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I think it’s fair to say that it likely matters for their last inning, but the rest of them are going to smooth that out. I don’t know any research on the topic though.
berseliusQuote Reply
I don’t think leverage for a SP matters. It’s important for relievers, but not starters.
dmick89Quote Reply
if he’s consistently going 7 IP without getting into any high leverage situations, then yeah, obviously he’s doing something right. i guess my point was that if he gets pulled at the first sign of trouble (in, say, the 5th inning) while other guys are allowed to get into jams and then hopefully get out of them, then his ERA will seem much better than it is.
that said, i just checked and his IP per start are the same as everyone else on the team. so my initial point stands but i am wrong anyways (dying laughing)
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
You assume that whoever comes in from the bullpen will be better than leaving the starter in. But I would argue that the earlier a starter is relieved, the less reliable the reliever, and if the starter is pulled mid-inning, it’s usually with men on base, so the net result probably washes out unless the bullpen is extraordinary or the starter very much less so.
This of course brings up the idea of the fireman role as opposed to (or in addition to) set roles for particular innings that may be difficult to fill because of the human element and our meatbag expectations. I think Edwards is climbing into that role. Travis Wood has been strangely effective in those situations too—though I chalk most of it to luck.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Reds up 3-0
dmick89Quote Reply
Paulino gave up one hit and one run—a homerun—to accompany 2 walks and 7 strikeouts in 7 innings for South Bend tonight.
ceruleanQuote Reply
4-0
dmick89Quote Reply
The Reds’ bullpen may make a game of this yet.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cingrani is like bad Marmol on a bad day.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wow. That was awful. Good job, Reds bullpen.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
It’s a good thing the Cardinals are still 11 games back, or I’d be pissed off at the Reds bullpen.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/series-preview-anaheim-mike-trouts-disneyland-49-62-chicago-cubs-69-41/
berseliusQuote Reply