OSS: Cubs let one slip away, but maintain their eleven game lead.
Three up:
- Kris Bryant remains on fire, slugging a two run homer in the first inning to put the Cubs on the board before even conceding an out. It was his eleventh HR of the month, and he had hit .278/.379/.680 for the month going into today’s game. Arbitrary endpoints blah blah, but it’s good to see a nice long stretch of dominance, especially when so many players around him have been dinged up.
- Ben Zobrist was the Cubs WPA leader on the day, mostly due to the one on, no out double he hit off the generally unhittable Familia in the bottom of the ninth. Unfortunately he was left standing there, which was a theme of this game.
- Lackey was solid early, allowing just two extra baserunners through the first four innings. The wheels came off a bit later, as evidenced by things like a double by James Loney, who normally can’t hit a ball out of the infield, and a solo shot by Cespedes that could have landed in Fenway. Still, he left with the lead, and I’d be more frustrated with the offense than the pitching in this game.
Three down
- The most backbreaking play of the game was the throwing error on Javier Baez, who tried to gun down the effective lead runner on a groundout but ended up allowing the go-ahead run to score. Baez is the guy who is always looking to take the extra base and make the exciting play, but sometimes you get burned with those risks. It just happened at the worst possible moment this time around.
- Joel Peralta is filling right in for Clayton Richard.
- Bryant and Contreras both struck out with the bases loaded in the ninth, leading to much gnashing of teeth and rending of flesh throughout the Cubs-o-sphere that they didn’t just take Familia’s pitches. Familia is one of the best pitchers in baseball. This is like complaining that batters would swing at Mariano Rivera pitches despite the fact that he killed a small forest with the number of bats he broke with his cutter. Something tells me that most of those pitches weren’t strikes either. Familia had electric stuff and was simply better than both guys tonight.
Next up: DeGrom vs Hammel, 6:10 CT
Comments
No mention of Pat and Ron’s long discussion about the Grateful Dead?
SKQuote Reply
I don’t care how electric his stuff is. He was up 0-2 on Montero, then threw 4 straight balls to walk him. You don’t swing until he proves he can find the zone, which he never did. He nearly fucked up the IBB for fuck’s sake! You especially don’t offer at pitches the way Contreras did not once, not twice, but three times with check swings. The guy threw 25+ pitches, and I’d be surprised if 5 of those were in the zone.
I don’t care about electric stuff. I care about basic pattern recognition which Homo sapiens can and need to be able to do. If he throws 5 pitches of junk to Bryant ahead of you before walking Rizzo, then throws you 3 pitches of junk, THEN YOU STRIKE OUT SWINGING AT JUNK, you are not doing very well, fellow primate.
umbraQuote Reply
umbra,
Ya. I know we don’t want to fuel the hot takes from last night, but it was a classic example of young hitters getting themselves out. They absolutely know the scouting report on Familia and that he throws a huge 2 seamer. If either Bryant or Contreras paid attention to the Montero or Zobrist at bat, they’d see he wasn’t locating. They either didn’t have a plan of attack going into the at bat or they abandoned it right when they stepped into the batters box.
In hindsight, you’d like to see Gary Jones walk down to Contreras to get him in the right state of mind prior to the AB, being that he’s had all of 42 PAs in the majors.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Familia was definitely good once he had runners on 2nd and 3rd, but some of those pitches were way out of the zone. I’m willing to give credit to Familia. He’s a very good reliever, but he got an assist from Bryant and Contreras. It happens. The worst part of the game was obviously the 7th and once the Cubs were down 4-3, it was going to be really tough to come back.
dmick89Quote Reply
Our pen definitely, definitely needs a boost. I’d like to add, like, two arms to it.
MylesQuote Reply
Good song, but it’s pretty far down my list of favorites. Terrapin Station is probably my favorite Dead song, but it’s been known to change. Eventually it comes back to that one.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles,
Yeah, they need a real LOOGY (any left-handed pitcher would work) and a right-hander as well.
dmick89Quote Reply
When i looked at the wiki for Grateful Dead and it wasn’t even mentioned, I deleted my comment out of shame. Just always loved that jam even though I was at best a casual Dead listener.
MylesQuote Reply
I want either left-hander from Oakland (Doolittle or Rzepczynski). Doolittle probably moreso, but you’d have to give up something pretty damn good for him and Rzep could conceivably be had for a couple of Caratini-tier prospects.
MylesQuote Reply
Rzep’s walk rate concerns me, but I’d definitely take him. I’d much prefer Doolittle. He’d cost less than Miller and if the Yankees are really dumb enough to ask for Schwarber, perhaps that at least keeps him off the table. Not that I’m worried about this team trading him. That won’t happen.
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t think Rzep is great. 5 walks per 9 is not good, and he was garbage last year, too. I just think he’ll be a cheap (in prospects) option that is clearly available and is certainly better than any left-handed reliever the Cubs have in the system at the moment. Probably an average LOOGY/7th inning guy at the moment.
MylesQuote Reply
It also might be time to throw Rob Zastryzny in a bullpen and see if you can get something out of him there. His career as a starter is probably Chris Rusin at best.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
I was thinking the same thing recently. I don’t see any reason to delay it either. The Cubs don’t need a starter right now and if they do down the road, there’s no reason he couldn’t stretch out for it in a couple games to get through 5 innings. His best chance of success is a career similar to what Travis Wood has done. OK as a starter, but surprisingly good in the bullpen. Not great, but good enough. He could probably even play left field.
dmick89Quote Reply
With the strikeout and walk improvements that pitchers get moving to the bullpen, it’s not unreasonable to think that Rob Z. could strikeout 7 per 9 and walk about 3 per 9. Far from great, but if you limit that further to just lefties, it could be quite a bit better.
Best thing? He’s ready now.
dmick89Quote Reply
Joe Nathan has about 3 weeks left on his rehab. He’s made 3 appearances for the Smokies and has been OK. He’s 300 years old and his arm could fall off at any moment, but he might be able to give the Cubs a good few months down the stretch.
dmick89Quote Reply
Any word on if Fowler is going to come off the DL when he’s eligible next week?
dmick89Quote Reply
It would have been nice to win last night’s game because the only game I thought the Cubs had the advantage in this series was the third game (Arrieta vs. Colon). That advantage depends on whether or not Arrieta can find the strike zone, which I don’t have high expectations of.
dmick89Quote Reply
Pat likes “Touch of Grey”, but he thought it came out in the late 70s (1987). He also likes “Truckin'”.
Pat said he saw the Dead play with the Who at Oakland Coliseum in 1976 and they both played for like three hours each. I’m guessing that’s a little inflated.
Ron couldn’t recall any particular Dead song he liked, but said they were always fun to listen to, and that “the band sure seemed to have fun … heh heh heh...”
Casey Jones is a good song, but it was sooooo overplayed during my youth that it became a bit cheesy and corny at some point…
Here is an article about the legendary concert where Pat Hughes clearly got legendarily wasted: http://www.sfchronicle.com/thetake/article/When-the-Who-met-the-Dead-for-the-last-time-in-6508791.php#photo-8584727
Here’s a link to the Dead’s actual set that day: https://archive.org/details/gd76-10-10.hollwein.vernon.11670.sbeok.shnf
EDIT: looks like they DID play for 3 hours
Here is a picture of the place where I saw 9 out of the 10 Dead shows I attended as a whippersnapper: https://theamazingkornyfonelabel.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/uptown-mtb.jpg
SKQuote Reply
SK,
I wish I could plus one this comment.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I always go back and forth between cassidy and jack straw. Terrapin is usually in the top 5. I’m not sure casey Jones makes the top 30.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Cassidy and Jack Straw are definitely in my top 10.
Speaking of the dead, how many of you listen to Jerry Garcia and David Grisman?
dmick89Quote Reply
The puppy I got back in December and eventually had to give up for financial and health reasons was named Cassidy. I named her that and called her Cassie. It was either Cassidy or Althea and my buddy in Philly just got a cat and named her Althea so I couldn’t do that.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cassidy is a much better name than Althea IMO. Good choice.
I don’t really have a favorite sojjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjnnng nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnjjjjjjjjjj
sorry, the fuckin n key on my keyboard just brkoe off
SKQuote Reply
I haven’t had the login issue happen to me for over a week now. I also haven’t gotten any server error pages in the last couple days (they hopefully fixed that issue too) and the rss feed is updating and sending out our posts to FB and twitter in a timely manner again.
Has anyone else had anything odd occur? I’m hopeful that all issues that we’ve had have been resolved. I’ve done as must testing as I can over the last 24 hours and have noticed nothing, but a smooth and fast server. I’m sorry that it took so long to get fixed.
Please let me know if you’ve had any of this happen to you on the site over the last couple of days. I won’t ask again after this as I’m assuming at this point that all is good. Thanks
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah, it’s a much better name for sure and it’s easier to shorten. For some reason I like two syllable names for my pets so I named my first dog Alexi and called her Lexi. I don’t think I ever called her Alexi, but I liked that name. I liked the name Cassidy and it was a bonus that there was a Dead song named that, but I never called her Cassidy. It was always Cassie.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
No problems here boss
SKQuote Reply
June was a joke gotta be better
–Cubs twitter
SKQuote Reply
If injuries linger all year and they Cubs make no trades to improve the bullpen, and basically continue to slip a bit from their hot start, they should still win 94 games minimum.
SKQuote Reply
dmick89,
I’ve actually gone on kind of a Dead kick over the past couple of years. some friends of mine here in Iowa City stared a tribute band that mainly does 68-75 Dead stuff, I started doing sound for them sometimes, and I got pulled into the vortex. My top tunes at any given moment probably include Jack Straw, Deal, China/Rider, Me and My Uncle, Mississippi Half Step, any version of He’s Gone that isn’t too slow, and the studio cuts of Cumberland Blues, New Speedway Boogie, Ripple, and Box of Rain. I’ve been sporadically buying the Dave’s Picks series, mostly from the early 70s. Everybody loves the stuff from May ’77 but by then the band is a little too jazzy for me. I stayed far away form the 80s stuff for a while, and a lot of it sounds bloated and off to me still, but I’m digging some of the 88-89 stuff that’s been officially released lately, especially that one that came out last year with Branford Marsalis.
I like Garcia/Grisman, mainly because I like the body of songs they were working out of, and because Jerry sounds engaged and sings better than on the Dead stuff from the era. Its quiet enough that a little goes a long way for me unless I’m winding down or just waking up.
Both the Dead and The Velvet Underground (probably my favorite band, if you held a gun to my head and made me choose one) called themselves The Warlocks before settling on their final names. I’d love to put together a band that played only Dead and Velvets songs, each in the style of the other: extended mellow boogie versions of VU tunes and atonal drone-jam versions of Dead songs. If you listen to the live stuff from the two bands in the 67-70 era, they actually aren’t that far apart, tho the Dead obviously are interested in more chord changes than the Velvets were. They also played bills together a couple of times in 68 in Chicago and hated each other.
UrkQuote Reply
Never could get too into garcia/grisman but a buddy just send me some garcia/merle haggard that is really legit. Happy to disseminate if anyone is interested.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Urk,
I’m not a particularly big fan of the Grateful Dead but would pay cash money to see your band live, if only to see “Sister Ray.” I think you’d be 3/4 of the way if you just stripped out all of the fuzz.
While we’re on music, I’m all for the Cubs getting Sean Doolittle. Wrigley needs more Metallica.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I can hear Pat Hughes making an impassioned plea to the FO, since team never threw him a bone by acquiring Grant Balfour or David Riske
berseliusQuote Reply
I have the unfortunate feeling that 2nd half Hammel is going to come out of hibernation a little earlier this year.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Urk,
When the outtakes album VU came out I was playing it for my pal and when Lou et al sang “do it again” on Foggy Notion, he went into a Jerry imitation singing along — that song and one other on that album actually did sound pretty Deadlike.
SKQuote Reply
I also like the VU very much and I can imagine them playing one or two songs on the first dead album like Viola Lee Blues
SKQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Zobrist
Heyward
Bryant (LF)
Rizzo
Contreras
Baez
Russell
Hammel
Almora
berseliusQuote Reply
My favorite Dead song is Sugaree, but I realize that’s just a Garcia song. I also like Old and In the Way alot. Despite all the best efforts of my drug loving hippie friends, I can’t force myself to enjoy jam music. I like the Dead’s 3-5 minute songs though.
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
I still stand by my conviction that the Dead on their best day= the Band on their worst. The Band is one of the best all time for me
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
This Indians/Jays game will never end.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
According to the radio, Dex won’t be available Monday. Or Tuesday. Or Wednesday.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This Cubs game might be over before the Jays-Tribe game (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
31 LOB for both teams (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing), not Darwin Barney is pitching
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Goins pitched the last inning and had a pretty good fastball.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
Not well, apparently.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Barney promptly gives up the go-ahead home run.
dmick89Quote Reply
I like how Gameday labels it an 85 mph changeup.
dmick89Quote Reply
I really need to see a clip of Barney striking out Napoli.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Found it: https://mobile.twitter.com/nohouzecalls/status/749023084133359616
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That was a terrible pitch for Baez to swing at even by his standards.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs lose
dmick89Quote Reply
Hammel is giving up a lot of fly balls even for him.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
2HH
uncle daveQuote Reply
Rainout, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Or at least as long as it takes to get the starting pitchers out of there.
uncle daveQuote Reply
A long rain delay is just what this bullpen needs (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
If that happens, Jake will have to throw 135 pitches tomorrow. About 6 innings.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hammel is looking second-halfish today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Baseball is weird. The Cubs beat the Mets 7 in a row and after this one it will be 6 in a row doe the Mets.
dmick89Quote Reply
Bryant!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bryant’s MVP odds have to be over 50% at this point.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Crap.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hammel’s ERA today is 18.00, but his FIP is only 16.17, so he’s been pretty unlucky.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
If you need to clear the palate after last night
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d69mDT11yI
SKQuote Reply
Good call.
dmick89Quote Reply
People were suggesting that Hammel only has the fastball and a slider/curve that sometimes works (which makes him look good) and sometimes doesn’t (gets shelled). If he’s only a 2-pitch artist, I guess that does scream bullpen.
Which starting pitchers are available to push Hendricks or Lackey to #4/#5? Hammel to bullpen seems like it would be an upgrade even if he doesn’t initially like it.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
I think Hammel just had a bad start. As much fun as I have with the 2nd half Hammel stuff, I’m not sure there’s any reason we should expect him to be noticeably worse in the 2nd half. I know his career stats suggest that, but I’m guessing he’s pitched through some injuries in the 2nd half and that’s a big reason why.
I’m not sure who might be available to acquire if the Cubs wanted to do that. If you add starting pitching to the list of needed improvements, that list is starting to get long for a team as good as the Cubs. Acquiring an every day left fielder would be at the top of my to do list if I was Theo followed by acquiring a left-handed reliever who can actually get lefties out, but preferably one who can also get righties out. Acquiring the LOOGY might be easier, but it’s not as much of an improvement as getting a left fielder, or at least a left-handed hitter to platoon in LF with Jorge Soler or Javier Baez (if Baez plays, Bryant plays LF).
dmick89Quote Reply
What would Josh Reddick and Sonny Gray cost? Gray is having a bad season, but he’s been good the previous two years. He’s got 3 years of club control (arbitration year) left so he would be expensive.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah, this. That was pretty much the worst possible rain delay amount. At that point you pretty much just flip a coin at what you’re going to get, and Hammel already knew that he was going to have to wear it because the Cubs needed innings more than anything even before the delay. It’s about as outlier as you can get for a pitching situation.
I’m quite glad that I didn’t see any of the rest of this game after the rain delay.
berseliusQuote Reply
My main concern with Hammel is that he needs to get his strikeout rate up. He was able to get away with a low strikeout rate up to this point in the season only because his home run rate was uncharacteristically low for him.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I’m a little more worried about Arrieta than I am Hammel. I think Arrieta is still a very good pitcher of course, but his walk rate is considerably worse this season and that means fewer innings for him and more innings for the bullpen. That’s not a good thing at the moment. This bullpen has about 3 relievers. Strop, Rondon and half each of Cahill and Wood. The rest of the bullpen is just waiting to blow leads.
dmick89Quote Reply
I turned it away as soon as the rain delay started. I figured I’d watch The Tunnel and have more fun. I did.
dmick89Quote Reply
Kris Bryant’s ISO is nearly .300 (.292). Despite his BABIP coming back to earth (73 points lower), he’s been better across the board. He’s walking just a bit less, but not so much that it’s a big deal. What an impressive season he’s putting together.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
He’s been hitting behind Rizzo more this year, which explains the decreased walk rate.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
I still think the hand-wringing about the bullpen is overblown. They’ve been in the top half of the league in ERA, and individual players’ numbers have sample size issues. e.g., Grimm has only thrown 28 innings; that’s like a bad month for a starter. Adding a good bullpen arm would be nice, but it probably wouldn’t help the team as much as, say, getting steady production from a left-fielder in the wake of Schwarber’s injury.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
True and I definitely agree LF is probably the place they could improve most. I think it’s pretty obvious. Hopefully Thoyer thinks so too.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sign me up for Reddick. Pass all day on Gray. It’s not just that’s he’s having a rough 2016, but more that he was never really all that good to begin with. And I doubt Beane will sell low at this point anyway.
(dying laughing), I’m still all about Rich Hill if he comes back from his DL stint in good form and can be had for reasonableness.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
That’s how I feel too, but I was thinking that Gray might be able to be had for less than some are thinking. I mean, who is going to pay a huge amount for someone like him? That would be crazy.
I really don’t care if the Cubs improve their rotation. I think it’s awfully good to begin with. If Jason Hammel is your worst starter, you’re doing pretty good. Hendricks has out-pitched him two years in a row so my guess is this time around Hendricks is the one getting the number 4 spot in the playoffs rotation with Hammel being bumped to the pen.
dmick89Quote Reply
I doubt anyone will, which is why it’s probably in Beane’s best interests to hold on and see if Gray can figure out his way back to better BABIP outcomes, which has pretty much been his game from the get-go. If he could be had for close to nada, I might be willing to take a flyer on him, but I find it hard to see someone as smart as Beane selling low on a once valuable (if vastly overrated) commodity.
What baffles me is why Beane didn’t sell on Gray this past offseason. He had to know what’s happened this year was a realistic possibility. It always is with a pitcher who doesn’t miss enough bats.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Agreed. Another BP arm of some sort should be added, but the widespread panic throughout Cubdom is, well, so very very typical.
I’m actually not too pissed to see a measure of trouble visit this team now (as long as it doesn’t continue on). Should mean deficiencies that have been around since the beginning of year will be addressed. When you’re playing .800 ball it’s kind of easy to just let things slide.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
The main thing that annoys me about the Cubs bullpen right now is that they seem to think Peralta is a LOOGY. (Career-wise, he has a slightly higher strikeout rate against lefties, but also a higher walk rate.)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Yeah, it’s pretty dumb. It’s one thing to be aware of Peralta’s reverse splits, quite another to suddenly think that makes him as effective as a good LOOGY. Lefties facing righties will always have more of an edge than they do facing same-handedness.
Of course, it could be the Cubs know this and are looking to correct it, but in the meantime, they’re chucking Peralta out there to plug the leak until they can fix it permanently.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I’m not either, but it’s been clear that the Cubs needed a left fielder since about the day Schwarber went down. I can somewhat understand people hoping Soler would finally figure it out. With the exception of his cup of coffee in 2014, he’s been a below average major league hitter, which is terrible for a corner outfielder. It’s made worse by his subpar defense and career-long health issues.
I think the bullpen is more of a need because Joe doesn’t seem to want to use Travis Wood against tougher lefties for some reason. Wood isn’t a great pitcher, but he’s at his best against lefties. Also, I think Grimm’s 2015 season was an outlier and am not the least bit surprised he’s been useless.
Now that we know what the issues are, I’d like to see them win more frequently, but I doubt that’s going to happen until they get healthy. They won despite some lingering injuries early on, but it finally caught up to them. They could be much worse off than they are. They could only be leading the Cardinals by 5 games. (dying laughing)
According to Joe yesterday, Dexter won’t be ready to go when he’s eligible to come off the DL. Hopefully by midweek next week then.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think this bullpen looks much better if Adam Warren returns to form.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/cubs-mets-game-thread-7-2-16/
dmick89Quote Reply