OSS: TOOTBLAN’d
Three up:
- Javy Baez provided most of the spark for the Cubs offense today, hitting a two run homer in the seventh to answer a shot by Todd Frazier in the previous half inning. He also doubled to lead off the Cubs rally in the ninth inning and stole third.
- The Cubs biggest WPA play of the day was Rizzo’s game-tying single in the ninth, which was a single poked the other way against a lefty. It could have been even bigger were it not for a misadventure on the basepaths…
- Credit to Justin Grimm, who has now posted nine straight scoreless outings despite calls for the Cubs to send him to Iowa in the comments today.
Three down
- The back-breaker in tonight’s game was Kris Bryant‘s TOOTBLAN during the ninth inning rally trying to stretch a long single into a double. Fangraphs doesn’t break down plays to that level of granularity so I’m not sure how much it cost the Cubs in terms of win%, but man was that brutal.
- Try as they might, the White Sox just would not give in to the Cubs desire to hit into their 5,000th double play of the month in the eighth inning today. Trailing 4-2, Zobrist led off with a walk, followed by two straight weak grounders to 2b by Willson and Heyward that they somehow beat out to first base. Heyward hit a double in the sixth so his day wasn’t all bad, but I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that he’s gone 2-30 with 14 double plays since the ASB.
- I missed the first half of this game, tuning in just in time to see Arrieta cough up a HR to Todd Frazier. At least it wasn’t a Kirk Nieuwienhuieusse type this time. Reading the comments around here it sounds like Joe left him in too long, but at least from the game log it seems relatively defensible. Leaving Montgomery in when Strop was available in the tenth was probably less defensible.
Next up: Cubs Ace Kyle Hendricks faces the shambling remains of James Shields, 6:10 PM CT
Comments
Using this win expectancy finder: http://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#V.1.9.0.6
Bryant stays at first: Visiting team wins 51.09% of the time
Bryant caught at second: Home team wins 70.29% of the time
Bryant safe at second: Visiting team wins 55.65% of the time
Terrible, terrible decision.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
There are sample size limitations for that site, since it sticks to actual game results. For instance, it actually has a lower win expectancy for the visiting team after the Baez steal. (That doesn’t make the decision to run there any less ridiculous, of course.)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
My thoughts on last night’s ninth inning as a whole:
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I didn’t mind leaving Arrieta in. My issue was that it took Bosio 4 batters of wildness to actually go out and talk to him. The Sox broadcast noted he was wild from the first batter. I guess some blame could be spread on Montero as well
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
It’s not an easy call. Pitchers can get wild trmporarily and then regain control. Arrieta did in the first innning.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Ya, I didn’t mean that he should have been pulled. But it’s my opinion that if he’s wild for 10 straight pitches, someone should go out and talk to him. Pitching is very mental, especially with Arrieta whose timing is the key to executing his pitches.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
https://twitter.com/philgrogers/status/757785648522665989
Ugh, really?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That statement from Theo and Ricketts regarding Chapman was bullshit. I hope I no longer ever have to hear about how the Cubs value character and integrity. They are fully committed to winning. Which is fine, it’s their job. I just don’t want to hear about how special the team is, and how they’re a great bunch of guys. Theo did the exact same tap dance that the Bears did with McDonald, and the Blackhawks did/do with Kane.
I really hope at BN Brett digs into those comments from Theo, Ricketts, and Chapman, and doesn’t simply let it slide. But I have a feeling that he and the rest of the staff will continue the hero worship of Theo and company. Fuck that.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin,
I think it was definitely the template that most teams use for this stuff, but I’m curious, what should they do?
I agree with you that it’s about winning and it should be. I also agree that it’s bullshit when or if they talk about how important character and all that is, but I thought that prior to yesterday too. Theo and Hoyer have been around long enough and have been successful enough that a few words about the importance of character and integrity wasn’t going to convince me they cared about much else than winning.
dmick89Quote Reply
Actually, I’d like to amend my commend to say that rather than caring about winning, they care about keeping their jobs. It just so happens that in order to keep their jobs they were going to have to win a lot of games and probably even some postseason series.
dmick89Quote Reply
JonKneeV,
The Cubs started to rely too much on Arrieta being able to get himself out of jams and over the last 4 or 6 weeks that has not been the case. I’d have a much quicker hook with him. I wouldn’t have let him face Frazier 3rd time through the order last night. I’d have brought in Montgomery to pitch to Morneau and then brought in Strop to pitch to Frazier.
dmick89Quote Reply
True, but the 6th inning of a 1-run game (men on 1st and 2nd and 1 out) is a bit different than the 1st inning and issuing a 4-pitch walk to the 2nd batter.
dmick89Quote Reply
Lackey, Hammel and Hendricks would all have been removed in that spot for the betterment of the team. There’s no reason the same shouldn’t be true of Arrieta and Lester when you’re carrying an 8-man bullpen.
I should add that I didn’t expect Joe to take him out and he wouldn’t have taken Lester out either. Most managers won’t take their aces out in situations like that, but they probably should do it more often than they do.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I don’t know. Maybe there simply is no good answer.
EdwinQuote Reply
Yeah, this. I was pretty underwhelmed and annoyed by the statements. Though at the same time I don’t know what they could have said that would have satisfied me either. But I am definitely eye rolling at any of the character talk they trot out going forward.
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah, I think you’re right. I think if you pick up a guy like this, you’re asking to be criticized and it’s at odds with the things they’ve said before. I don’t think anything can be said to satisfy people. That’s why teams and companies issue these identical statements.
dmick89Quote Reply
This.
dmick89Quote Reply
Talking about teams making money and executives keeping their jobs is exactly why I didn’t have the same strongly hostile reaction to the Chapman news as some of you.
I don’t work for the Cubs. I don’t own the Cubs. And, I’m not on the Cubs. Chapman is not my teammate.
I tried to think about how I would feel if Chapman worked for a company I was doing business with, or maybe buying products from. I wouldn’t like it, but it probably wouldn’t cause me to stop dealing with them (unless they were a babysitting service or a security firm). Having a guy like Chapman working for someone I deal with is not a reflection on me. It might tarnish their reputation, but not mine.
I am sure there is probably more than one domestic abuser in my work organization. Hopefully not in the smaller group I work with, because I would find that tough. But again, as a fan I’m not sharing desk space with Aroldis Chapman.
I know some fans have a greater sense of ownership of their favorite teams. I probably did once. So they don’t want a proven scummy jerkass representing them. I don’t see the Cubs representing me. I don’t like what Chapman did, but I see it as his problem, his family’s problem, and lastly his employer’s problem to deal with, not mine.
SKQuote Reply
SK,
I mostly feel this way, although I have to admit that part of me really digs some of what’s presented as the character of this team (the looseness, the goofy travel outfits, etc.). The same part of me loves that Arrietta’s twitter homepage is a picture of him holding his kid up on his feet in his backyard. I totally understand that, individual variances aside, this is mostly “what’s presented as…” but this signing makes it harder to get my head into that space. Maybe that’s for the better.
I do think though that its also possible that a 30 game suspension could be a wake-up call to someone to maybe be a little bit less of an asshole. And that doing shit like pitching at someone’s head is more likely to happen on a team where it feel’s like that shit is tolerated. That’s probably all wishful thinking too, but its not impossible.
URKQuote Reply
I don’t want to panic or anything but is anybody else worried about Arrieta? He had some really good starts earlier in the year but he just seems off for the past couple of months. I knew he wasn’t going to be as good as he was last year but his lack of control lately has me worried. If the playoffs were starting in a week, I’d be extremely worried about this team’s chances with Arrieta pitching this way. There’s time for him to right the ship but I don’t feel too good about it. Somebody please tell me it’ll be ok.
MuckerQuote Reply
I think it’s MLB in general that tolerates it. I can’t stand it when pitchers do that, but they do and as long as MLB lets them get away with it, they’ll continue to do so. I think they do it less frequently than they once did. I can’t stand that Chapman did that, but I blame MLB.
dmick89Quote Reply
Mucker,
It’s OK. Arrieta is probably a 3.00 ERA pitcher. That’s good, but not great. he had a great run that was really fun and amazing, but he was never that good.
The Cubs are still going to struggle in that they aren’t going to match up well against the Giants or Mets. Both of those teams have better pitchers at the top.
dmick89Quote Reply
I dont buy the “MLB doesnt give a strong enough incentive not to bean people in the head.” That takes too much agency away from the player, in my opinion.
Myles HandleyQuote Reply
New ish: http://obstructedview.net/counterpoint-ok-root-chapman-good-baseball/
JonKneeVQuote Reply
dmick89,
That’s what worries me. I don’t know if the pitching will be good enough to keep the games close enough for the offense to get going. Unless they jump on the starters, the offense will probably struggle until the bullpens come in and it might be too late by then. The rotations they will see in the playoffs are going to be sick.
MuckerQuote Reply
Myles Handley,
By MLB, I include players, coaches and managers. Throwing at a batter gets you only a 5 game suspension if you’re a starter and about 3 games if you’re a reliever. It’s not much of a penalty, especially when you factor in how many hitters who are more than likely intentionally hit that doesn’t result in any punishment. MLB is less tolerant of hitting batters than they once were, but they’re still fairly tolerant of it. Many of the batters intentionally hit are being called by the manager or coach.
dmick89Quote Reply