Cubs 5, Brewers 4

In Postgame by berselius303 Comments

OSS: Cubs win in extras on a bases clogged walk.

Three up

  1. La Stella drew a pinch walk with the bases juiced against a clearly gassed Corey Knebel in the tenth inning that proved to be the deciding run.
  2. The biggest play of the game by WPA was not the La Stella walk. Anthony Rizzo hit a no-out single in the tenth to put Bryant on third base, good for a WPA of .225.
  3. It was a great outing for the bullpen, who allowed one run on two hits and a walk with eight strikeouts over 6 innings. Bonus props to Edwards and Monty for going multiple innings, especially since Monty threw 81 pitches of near no-hit ball just three days ago.

Three down:

  1. I'm not sure why Leonys Martin came up to the plate in the tenth instead of La Stella, a batter earlier than when he appeared. JD speculated that Joe wanted his glove in the game if the Cubs took the lead, and given that he was up with the bases clogged and no outs there was a good chance of that happening. Pretty thin justification though.
  2. John Lackey did John Lackey things early in the game.
  3. The Cardinals won, so the magic humber is only Vitters instead of Joey Gathright.

Next up: Kyle Hendricks faces his pitching doppelganger in a day game matchup at 12:05 CT

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  2. BVS


    B-Ref says this guy, Tuck Stainback, wore number 5 and had a career -6.6 WAR over 13 (!) seasons. the first 4 with the Cubs, where he “earned” -2.0 WAR. He was tops in errors by a CF one year. And y’all thought Cedeno was bad. (dying laughing)

    Great name though.

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  5. uncle dave

    BVS,

    (dying laughing)

    I gotta say, I wouldn’t go so far as to admit that I feel sorry for them, but it must suck to be a Brewers fan right now.

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  8. uncle dave

    dmick89,

    I don’t know why this has stuck with me over the years, but whenever I think of the Brewers I can’t help but think of the dude who hassled ACB over someone calling folks from Milwaukee fat, citing some article in Men’s Fitness.

    “Men’s Fitness magazine agrees!” It’s a phrase for all seasons, imo.

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  12. SK

    Chicago residents: what say you about out of towners staying at an AirBnB in Garfield Park?

    On the one hand, it’s very close to the city and right next to the Kedzie CTA and a huge park/conservatory.

    On the other, the neighborhood sounds a bit violent crimey based on the stats.

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  14. dmick89

    SK: Chicago residents: what say you about out of towners staying at an AirBnB in Garfield Park?

    I’m not a Chicago resident, but I lived there from December 1974 to June 1975 so I’m kind of an expert. I say go for it.

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  15. Perkins

    SK,

    I live in the West Loop about the same level north/south, and I generally don’t go west of Ashland. It’s probably fine, but I’m somewhat risk averse when it comes to violet crime.

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  16. Author
    berselius

    Perkins,

    My in-laws are in Chicago right now at some conference in the loop and asked us if they would be safe from all the gang violence there. Needless to say, they are Fox News watchers.

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  18. Perkins

    berselius,

    Ugh. Overall there’s a bit more violent crime than New York, but the worst of it is pretty heavily concentrated.

    The big difference to me is that a lot of places in Chicago don’t have a ton of foot traffic after hours, which obviously increases the risk of getting mugged or something like that.

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  22. Berselius is too lazy to log in

    SK: same. violent or violet.

    Let’s not normalize the heinous crimes of the serial murderer known only as The Grimace.

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  23. Berselius is too lazy to log in

    To-day’s base ball squadron vs a south paw

    Jay
    Bryant
    Rizzo
    Contreras
    Almora
    Russell
    Baez
    Happ
    Hendricks

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  24. Perkins

    Berselius is too lazy to log in: Let’s not normalize the heinous crimes of the serial murderer known only as The Grimace.

    (dying laughing). When I was in Haiti, our Battalion XO came in asking if anyone had seen this one Major from Brigade:

    Me: “MAJ so-and-so? White female, kinda pear-shaped?”
    S1: “Pear shaped isn’t a very nice thing to say.”
    XO (excitedly): “Yeah, the one who looks like Grimace!”
    S1: “Who’s Grimace?”
    Me: *shows a picture of Grimace to the S1*
    S1: “Oh my.”

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  29. cerulean

    Berselius is too lazy to log in: Let’s not normalize the heinous crimes of the serial murderer known only as The Grimace.

    Just because someone is purple does not make them violet. While I admit, there are violet Grimaces in the wild—those are imposters—real Grimaces are peace-loving purple and always have been.

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  31. Jisht

    Pat and Ron noted that Sogard was having a career year. I looked it up. 1.1 fWAR. He may still pass his current high of 1.3, which was almost entirely due to defense.

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  33. uncle dave

    Speaking of Chicago, I’m headed there for the first time in who knows how long on a short vacation. Anyone have any suggestions on neighborhoods/restaurants to check out? Looking for stuff that’s off the beaten path.

    (Based on the conversation so far today, I’m assuming that the Violet Hour would be included.)

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  35. Myles

    uncle dave:
    Speaking of Chicago, I’m headed there for the first time in who knows how long on a short vacation.Anyone have any suggestions on neighborhoods/restaurants to check out?Looking for stuff that’s off the beaten path.

    (Based on the conversation so far today, I’m assuming that the Violet Hour would be included.)

    Not sure if it is off the beaten path but Pequods is the best deep dish on the planet and I’ve heard from sources I trust that Spacca Napoli is the best non deep-dish pizza in the city.

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  115. Perkins

    I’m kind of surprised Davis was out there in the 10th after he’d thrown 16 pitches in the 9th and has worked so much lately.

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  144. cerulean

    I am okay with Davis blowing two saves in one game. It’s only one loss. I am more okay with wiping the floor with the Stale Beer tomorrow. How about 16–0?

    But seriously, these games have been really great fun. I did not expect a Cubs-Brewers matchup to be so entertaining.

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  153. cerulean

    I have vague memories of him being a pain in the ass for the Cubs in 2006—but then everybody was a pain in the ass for the Cubs in 2006. They did not win the World Series that year.

    Disappointed about conditions surrounding a stress test he was forced to take before beginning a minor league rehabilitation assignment — he insisted he felt fine — Freel was traded to the Cubs on May 8 only to be dealt to Kansas City on July 6.

    Heh

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  155. dmick89

    Nice to finally see a baseball player take a knee during the anthem.

    Speaking of the anthem, can’t we just do away with it before games? It’s just a baseball game.

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  161. dmick89

    Perkins,

    “He’s a little guy who lives in my head who talks to me and I talk to him,” said Freel, acting as if he finally crashed into too many walls, ran into too many catchers and dived into too many dugouts. “That little midget in my head said, ‘That was a great catch, Ryan,’ I said, ‘Hey, Farney, I don’t know if that was you who really caught that ball, but that was pretty good if it was.’ Everybody thinks I talk to myself, so I tell ’em I’m talking to Farney.’ “

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  179. cerulean

    Cleveland is about as good this year as the Cubs were last year in terms of record and run differential. The Cubs were really fucking good last year.

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  189. dmick89

    SK:
    BTW that wasn’t two blown saves for Davis. Once the Cubs came back he was in line for the win not the save.

    I saw a few people say that yesterday. I think they even said it on MLB Network, which is just inexcusable to not know the rules.

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  191. dmick89

    dmick89: which is just inexcusable to not know the rules.

    By that I mean it’s inexcusable for the MLB Network to not know it.

    I have no problem if the random fan calls it two blown saves. It kind of was.

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  196. cerulean

    dmick89,

    It absolutely was two blown saves in the sense that a blown save is coughing up the lead, which is what a blown save means, but not how it’s counted. It’s as ludicrous as pitcher wins for relievers. I mean, there is no reason Davis should have been in line for the win.

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  205. cerulean

    I like the goose eggs stat replacing the save and the hold, but I think wins and losses could be amended to be meaningful—you can only pick up a win if you throw at least two innings. You can only pick up a loss if you are the starter. Pitcher of record is bullshit.

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  210. dmick89

    cerulean,

    Wins and losses are ridiculous stats. Same with saves and blown saves and any other number of stats. Goose eggs is better than saves and blown saves, but I still see the purpose of adding another stat when we can just look at run average, FIP or just K-BB%. We don’t need goose eggs or saves to determine the best relievers. We both know this of course, but baseball is baseball and they aren’t going to change.

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  215. dmick89

    JD just mentioned Jeromy Burnitz. I was trying to think of his name last night, but couldn’t. I thought about it when Ryan Freel came up. Freel made what was one of the two best catches I’ve ever seen at Wrigley Field. He was playing 3rd when he was with the Reds and dove right into the Cubs dugout head first to make the catch. Guy did not give a shit about his body. The same was true of Burnitz who made the other catch when he was playing CF for the Rockies. Burnitz dove after a ball in left CF and I thought he broke his neck or fractured his skull when he collided with the wall immediately after landing. He got up and was fine.

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  218. cerulean

    dmick89,

    I think win and losses can tell us things that are meaningful if we get rid of the noise. They can tell us about the situations a pitcher has been used in—starter vs long reliever vs R/LOOGY vs fireman—just like we tell the difference between a platoon player and an everyday player—looking at the rate stats alone can hide those nuances of opportunity and exposure.

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  220. cerulean

    Not a fan of all of these warning track drives given up by Q. It’s good that they are caught, but many of them won’t be.

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  228. dmick89

    cerulean,

    I think you can pick those things up with other available stats. Average leverage at the start of the inning would probably be the best way. For what it’s worth, I think wins, losses, saves, blown saves over a long enough period of time tells us some valuable information. We can look at the wins leaderboard and see that it’s an imperfect ranking of the top pitchers. It’s far from perfect, but it’s filled with hall of famers for a reason. I think the saves stat is the same way, but over the course of smaller samples all are useless IMO.

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  247. cerulean

    dmick89,

    I agree, but changing the way the game tallies wins and losses and saves etc can make them more meaningful at any given sample size without having to understand the leverage and everything—this is why I like the goose egg—it converts the vaguely tangible into a precise and understandable stat that can be easily grokked by the casual fan.

    To qualify:
    • For a win: Start the game and get at least 12 outs and no other pitcher gets more outs, or be a reliever in a game when your team takes the lead and get at least 6 outs, both exiting with the lead that wins the game.
    • For a loss: Start the game and give up the lead that losses the game, or come into the game up by three or more and give up the lead (including inherited runners).
    • Let’s add that a quality start (or something similar) does not count as a loss.
    • Without a pitcher of record, the team loses the game.

    That would get rid of hard luck losses, and there would not be cheap reliever wins and losses.

    ZObi-wan Kenobi!!!!

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  249. dmick89

    cerulean: To qualify:
    • For a win: Start the game and get at least 12 outs and no other pitcher gets more outs, or be a reliever in a game when your team takes the lead and get at least 6 outs, both exiting with the lead that wins the game.
    • For a loss: Start the game and give up the lead that losses the game, or come into the game up by three or more and give up the lead (including inherited runners).
    • Let’s add that a quality start (or something similar) does not count as a loss.
    • Without a pitcher of record, the team loses the game.

    I’m okay with that, though I probably wouldn’t look at wins and losses any more frequently than I do. The only time I do now is similar to how the Pirates win these days – by accident. Though I don’t reference it much, the only stat I really need for a pitcher is K-BB%. So as long as they still count strikeouts, walks and batters faced I don’t really care with what else they do.

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  258. mcalis2

    I miss the answer to the 30-30-100 brewer question. Braun, Burnitz, Fielder— who was the fourth? I thought maybe Richie Sexton or Corey Hart.

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  264. Author
    berselius

    dmick89,

    I’m sure you were just celebrating David Ross’s home run in game seven of the World Series in the final PA of his career. The Cubs won that game, you may have heard.

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