Cubs 5, Giants 6 (NLDS Game 3)

In Commentary And Analysis by berselius38 Comments

OSS: This one’s probably on Joe.

Three or more up:

  1. It’s the kind of play that doesn’t show up on WPA, but the most important play of the game was Almora’s sensational catch in the ninth inning, robbing Buster Posey of what would have been a walk-off double with almost any other right fielder out there. As a bonus he got to cash in an extra out by doubling Belt off of first, who was not wrong to run on that hit. I wouldn’t call it redemption for Gillaspie’s triple, since I don’t think anyone, Heyward included, could have got to that ball.
  2. The Cubs biggest offensive play of the game was Kris Bryant‘s game-tying homer in the ninth inning. That outghta shut up the “but is he Clutch” crowd.
  3. The rest of the Cubs runs were plated by Jake Arrieta, who hit a three run homer at the suddenly vincible Madison Bumgarner. I’m still waiting for my ten million dollars, universe.
  4. A respectful head nod to Mike Montgomery, who warmed up several times and pitched four effective innings in relief before running out of gas in the thirteenth. It has to be pretty unusual to give up a walkoff hit and still have a positive WPA on the day.

Three down

  1. We’ve been complaining around these parts about Joe’s tendency not to pinch hit for starters in close ballgames, and it may have bit them in the ass today. Jake Arrieta batted for himself with a man on second and one out in the fifth inning, and at the time it even looked like Joe was going to send out Montgomery for the sixth. At least he only shot himself in the foot once instead of twice there. It’s not like he looked particularly dominant as the game went on either.
  2. When Joe did go to the pen later, it turned into quite the clusterfuck. Strop looked good against his two batters, and I didn’t have much beef with bringing Wood in to face two lefties (with an inning break between). After Belt slapped one the other way off Wood he brought in Rondon, then immediately pulled him for Chapman after Rondon walked Posey. Most folks around here would rather just have Chapman come in for the two inning save, though I was totally fine with having Rondon lined up to finish out the inning. If anything this felt too indecisive, and while the two inning save strategy is good in general it just has not been something that Chapman is comfortable with, as dumb as it is to say. Furthermore, Hector Rondon would be a fantastic ace reliever himself for most teams in MLB, so it’s not like we’re talking about a Justin Berg-like starting point. Still, however you feel about Chapman and multi-inning saves I think Joe simply outmanaged himself here.
  3. The Cubs biggest negative WPA play of the day on offense came with runners on first and second in the thirteenth. With a lefty on the mound (and a pretty good one against LHB, IIRC), David Ross pinch hit for Coghlan and bounced into a double play. It sucks but I don’t know how much to blame the PH choice here. Besides with Coghlan’s luck he would have hit a screaming liner right at the first baseman, who would have then completed the easy double play. *record scratch* actually it looks like Smith’s splits aren’t that big at all. Still, if you regress them it’s probably still a defensible move.
  4. Cubs catchers in general had a pretty awful day. Montero was a non-factor against Bumgarner, and barely saw any pitches in his PAs from what I remember. Willson came in after Arrieta exited the game and had a terrible time with Chapman’s heat, probably stealing a few strikes away from the Cubs. He also committed a throwing error that luckily didn’t cost the Cubs further runs, and was pretty trigger happy throwing to bases during the rest of the game.
  5. Rizzo had an awful day at the plate, going 0-6 with two strikeouts. The Cubs got a lot of runners on base in this game, but had a tough time getting them in. They only had one inning without a baserunner in regulation, but the bats quieted down in extras against a soft Giants pen.
  6. What the hell was Maddon saving Carl Edwards for? Montgomery was clearly running out of steam going into the thirteenth.

Next up: Matt Moore faces John Lackey at 7:30 PM CT. Hopefully this one doesn’t go so late.

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Comments

  1. Smokestack Lightning

    Yeah, Joe will have to wear this one a little, as his moves were probably the difference in a one-run loss, but with one exception, can’t really say any of them were terrible. Maybe he outmanaged himself in the 8th, but that feels a little unfair. I think he was obviously trying to avoid putting Chapman out there because of Chapman’s apparent discomfort coming in in any inning other than the 9th, but the situation quickly escalated, and Maddon made the only move there was to make.

    In fact, the only move I thought was clearly a mistake was putting a rookie catcher out there in a one-run elimination game. Close game like this you’d prefer to have your best defensive catcher, best framer, experienced, out there. May not have ultimately changed anything, but it’s the one call he made that pissed me off. I saw little upside in choosing Contreras over keeping Montero in or going with Grandpa. Especially when you’re talking one PA for Contreras if you hold the lead.

    Yeah, that really fucking pissed me off.

    The rest, tho? Eh.

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  2. Rizzo the Rat

    Edwards wasn’t used because he was literally the last resort in the bullpen and he isn’t even a long man, so even if he gets through the inning, then what?

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  3. Rizzo the Rat

    I still think Joe’s worst move was letting Arrieta hit in a high-leverage spot so he could pitch in the sixth. Jake just isn’t a dominant enough pitcher to justify that these days.

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  4. Edwin

    I’m just wondering why Chris Bryant would selfishly waste a 2 run HR in a game the Cubs didn’t even go on to win? Players today again showing why they care more about moneyball and stats and numbers and stats than winning.

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  5. Author
    berselius

    Rizzo the Rat:
    Edwards wasn’t used because he was literally the last resort in the bullpen and he isn’t even a long man, so even if he gets through the inning, then what?

    I mean, sure, but Montgomery was entering his fifth inning and had warmed up several times already in that game. Did Joe even have Edwards throwing in the bullpen in extras? There had to be some point where going to CJ was the better option.

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  6. Author
    berselius

    I’m too sleep deprived to spend any more energy being annoyed about this game (dying laughing). Back to the salt mines, see you tonight.

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  7. SK

    berselius,

    You won’t see this in the salt mines, but yes, Edwards was up and “standing on the bullpen mound” according to Pat in the last couple of innings, waiting for the Cubs to take a lead. I would have done the same as Joe, and if he got through that last inning maybe keep him for one more. Better to just use him up completely for the series since he isn’t pitching game 4 anyway, than to damage both him and Edwards.

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  8. JonKneeV

    berselius: I mean, sure, but Montgomery was entering his fifth inning and had warmed up several times already in that game. Did Joe even have Edwards throwing in the bullpen in extras? There had to be some point where going to CJ was the better option.

    CJ was definitely up and ready. They showed several shots of him. Seems like Joe kept Monty in for the two lefties in a row.

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  9. cerulean

    The Cubs should have won, and given this exact game going into extras, I think they usually do. But let’s be clear, it’s the bats that let them down. Wake up bats. You’re making Maddon look bad.

    Also, I would have brought Edwards in once that first guy reached base in the umpteenth inning. And if nothing else, Hendricks, Lackey, or Lester would have been called upon if the game continued.

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  10. Rizzo the Rat

    I don’t know if Hendricks is available. Lackey, of course, is pitching today. And it would be a shame to use Lester if this series goes on for five.

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  11. dmick89

    Montgomery’s pitch count was good and he looked ok to me other than results, of course. Edwards is probably only good for two innings at best so Joe’s bullpen troubles weren’t so much in the later innings of that game, but the middle of it in my opinion. He also managed his bench poorly. And no way should Arrieta have hit for himself in the 6th. Joe needs to wake up and realize Arrieta is just a good pitcher. He’s not great.

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