Cubs 6, Cardinals 4 (10/13/15)

In Commentary And Analysis by berselius101 Comments

Thousand word summary: 

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Three Eight up:

1. I am not sure which Cubs rookie is having a more amazing playoff run, Schwarber or Soler. This is probably recency bias talking, but Scwharber's bomb is probably the most memorable moment in the playoffs so far. Here is a shot that captured where it landed:

Seriously though, the ball must have just missed clearing the scoreboard, because a fan in the upper deck spotted it still stuck on top.

2. That was not even the Cubs highest WPA play of the game. Or second highest. Or third. The biggest play of the game was Javier Baez's three run blast in the second inning off of John Lackey. Lackey was working on three days rest, though from the perma-bags under his eyes it looked more like he spent the last three nights trying to open his Loeclos Box *obscure rimshot*. Javy's defenive shakiness in last night's game seemed to make most Cubs fans and commentators (and my parents) remember any negative comment about Baez and reattach it to him, and he kicked that monkey off his back in style. 

3. The #3 play came just before Baez's blast, when Jason Hammel hit for himself in the second inning (gasp!) and smacked a single up the middle to score the first run of the game. I will shelve the rest of the Hammel discussion for one of the other bullet points.

4. The #2 play was Rizzo's solo shot in the sixth inning, which turned out to be the winning run. Rizzo homered off Siegrist yesterday too.

5. Soler's defense has mostly been a disappointment this year, but he still has an absolute cannon out there in RF, as he showcased when gunning down Tony Cruz in the sixth to keep the game tied.

6. Justin Grimm had the most impressive performance in what was generally a good outing from Johnny Wholestaff. With two runners on and no outs following a walk issued by Hammel and an error on Bryant, he struck out the side to kill a Cardinals rally. Normally I think Joe tends to use Grimm too early in games but this was a perfect place to bring in his fireman. 

7. Trevor Cahill had the biggest WPA play for a Cubs pitcher when he struck out Grichuk with runners on first and third with no outs in the sixth. Granted, he had put one of those runners on in the first place, but still a big strikeout in a tough situation. He went on to strike out Wong before Cruz poked a double down the first base line to tie the game. I'm still pretty iffy on Trevor Cahill, TRANSFORMED pitcher, but my opinion on Chaill has not really changed based on this outing. With a little luck the Cubs field one of those first two hits the Cards got off him and everyone is talking about what a shutdown steal the Cubs have turned him into. That Cruz double especially seemed like dumb luck, one of those crazy end of the bat shots that ends up in play on accident. 

8. (dying laughing) at Fernando Rodney busting out the arrow as he was heading back to the dugout. I also loved his "yeah, I would take me out too" face when Joe came to get the ball. 

Three Four down:

1, By Grapthar's hammer this TBS production has been fucking atrocious. I get not doing things like, say, showing the seventh inning stretch, or any of the pregame stuff, though I am still annoyed that they did not happen. These announcers are so bad that even Kruk, Schilling, Joe Fucking Morgan, or even Phil Simms in the analyst's role would be an improvement on the level of insight. Their behind the camera stuff has been garbage too, not following plays (e.g. Arrieta's steal in the WC game), not showing highlights of other games (Mets-Dodgers 'live look in' yesterday), not doing any research (Aramis played for the Brewers between his Pirates stints!), and their grabage strike zone graphic, which had people more pissed off at the umps than they maybe should have been. But there is one thing that's so fucking simple I cannot believe they keep fucking it up, namely, the scorebox that they keep on the screen. The ball-strike counts were fucked up multiple times in yesterday's game, and in the biggest Cardinals rally inning of today's game they had runners on first and second when they were actually on second and third. When Brandon Moss singled to right and Soler gunned down the runner at home, I assumed it was the lead runner and the Cubs had maintained their 4-3 lead. I even argued about this for like two minutes with the guy next to me until I checked gameday to be sure. 

2. A lot of people were grumbling about Hammel and Wood hitting for themselves in this game, but I do not really mind it. I must be the only Cubs fan who thought that they should have kept Hammel in a bit longer, at least until he allowed another baserunner or two. Hammel had to know it was going to be a shortish outing anyway and could have cut loose a bit. As we saw as the game progressed the Cubs were in danger of running out of pitchers. After Rondon the only guys the Cubs had left were Hendricks and Lester. Maddon has been a bit of a gambler with this all season and it ended up working out, but still made me a little nervous. The same goes for Wood, who based on public comments Maddon seems to trust more than anyone except Rondon. 

3. Austin Jackson tried to bunt in a run in the eighth with runners on second and third and one out. FFS. I do not mind that Joe made sure to stress bunting and squeeze plays etc last month given how shitty the Cubs were at getting runs in from third, but you do that shit when you are in a one-run ball game, not when you are already up two and have two players in scoring position. And it was after Matheny had just gifted the Cubs with a free baserunner to get to Jackson. Ugh.

4. I am out of stuff to complain about Cubs-wise, so I will just laugh at some bad managing. Aside from the aforementioned overmanging in the eighth, Matheny also inexplicably left Siegrist in for the seventh after he had coughed up the lead in the sixth on Rizzo's HR. He was then greeted by that Schwarber bomb. 

 

The Cubs play again on Saturday, facing the winner of the Mets-Dodgers game later this week. The Cubs probably match up better with the Dodgers, but they have owned the Mets this year (swept the season series) and it would make for great narrative if they could also knock out the Mets on their way to a championship. If only Ronnie were here to see it. He would have loved this team.

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Comments

  1. Rizzo the Rat

    Matheny’s walking Castro and letting him take second will go down as one of the most baffling managerial moves I’ve ever seen. It was like a two-base intentional walk, and it’s not as if Starlin is Barry Bonds.

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  2. Suburban kid

    Oh my fucking God, even the morning after it is still continuing to blow me away. To see the LCS series schedule with Cubs listed and all the other three teams still TBD because they couldn’t win their series in four games unlike the Cubs who were playing the winningest team.

    So awesome to see huge contributions from Soler and Schwarber and Rizzo and Castro and Baez and Bryant and Russell. Montero didn’t hit but he out-Field General’d Yadi bigtime. Fowler did his thing. Bullpen bailed out Arrieta and Hammel.

    Cubs fans and media weren’t terrible. National media and opponent cities’ fans and media showed themselves up.

    I have to do the last week’s worth of work in the next three days so I’ll smell you later

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  3. Rizzo the Rat

    Suburban kid,

    Honestly, platoon splits regress very heavily toward the mean and 144+ IP isn’t a huge sample size, so I didn’t have a problem with his Siegrist comment.

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  4. Rizzo the Rat

    I’m definitely more worried about the Dodgers than the Mets. The Dodgers have a powerful offense, two Cy Young winners, and a ballpark that suppresses home runs.

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  5. dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat,

    I assumed he walked Castro knowing a bunt was coming and that it would be easier for Castro to get it down than for Jackson. I knew the bunt was coming. I’d have been very surprised if Joe did anything else in that situation. He loves that play.

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  6. Rice Cube

    dmick89:
    Rizzo the Rat,

    I assumed he walked Castro knowing a bunt was coming and that it would be easier for Castro to get it down than for Jackson. I knew the bunt was coming. I’d have been very surprised if Joe did anything else in that situation. He loves that play.

    Will go on record as saying that I hated the bunt but did like that it took a perfect play from the pitcher to get him.

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  7. dmick89

    Rice Cube,

    Yeah it was a dumb call for sure. Maddon is like most managers. He makes a lot of stupid mistakes. I think he is a really good manager though. He puts his best hitters at the top, which makes him better than half the managers right there. I think Joe’s real value is in, and I hate to say this, the ways that can’t be quantified. He keeps the clubhouse loose, which I can only guess is a great idea. He’s not the only one who does that, but I think he does it in the most unique way.

    I just hated that I knew the bunt was coming with Castro and that even with the stupid walk by the Cardinals, Joe would still go ahead with the bunt.

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  8. Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time ago

    I’ll join the chorus of voters who hated the bunt. More runs there could have been really helpful. And I’ll also say I wish Santo could see this. As annoying as he could be in the booth, the man fuckin loved the Cubs. He’d be beyond overjoyed right now.

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  9. Millertime

    I hope a lot of the guys from the 2003, 2007, and 2008 teams are able to show up. A couple lucky bounces their way, and this could have been them.

    Edit: Obviously the 2003 team got this far, but still.

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  10. JonKneeV

    Thank god we don’t have a Mike Matheny/DaleSveum coaching this team. Letting Cruz bat in the 9th down two was hysterical.

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  11. JonKneeV

    Want to hear some REALLY good news? On normal rest,

    Arrieta pitches games 1 & 5
    Lester pitches games 2 & 6 (on 5 days rest)

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  12. cerulean

    JonKneeV:
    Want to hear some REALLY good news? On normal rest,

    Arrieta pitches games 1 & 5
    Lester pitches games 2 & 6 (on 5 days rest)

    I don’t want to see Lester in game 6—let’s clinch in five at home.

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  13. dmick89

    JonKneeV:
    JonKneeV,

    @dmick, watch out for some extra web traffic today. You’re welcome.

    The server slow downs we had should be taken care of now. I upgraded the server here to essentially what we had before we went to Bloguin. We wanted to see if we could get away with less since we’d lost some traffic, but during the games, there was a noticeable slow down. Hopefully that’s fixed for now.

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  14. dmick89

    JonKneeV:
    Want to hear some REALLY good news? On normal rest,

    Arrieta pitches games 1 & 5
    Lester pitches games 2 & 6 (on 5 days rest)

    If the Cubs win games 1 and 2 on the road, they’re winning the series at home for sure.

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  15. dmick89

    Suburban kid:
    Hammel thought he just threw one bad pitch btw.

    Hammel is kind of delusional. He’s acted as if he’s done nothing to deserve the early hooks. I don’t like ERA, but someone should show him what his has been since his injury. It’s sucked ass.

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  16. dmick89

    JonKneeV:
    Thank god we don’t have a Mike Matheny/DaleSveum coaching this team. Letting Cruz bat in the 9th down two was hysterical.

    To be fair, I’m not really sure he had an alternative. I don’t like Matheny, but I think that meant there was no chance Yadier Molina could play. If that was the case, they should have DL’d him and got another catcher ready. So I think the dumb part there was by not making a better decision with Molina. The guy probably shouldn’t even have been on the postseason roster. He could barely catch the ball and could barely swing. Normally those guys don’t play postseason games. Then again, they had a guy who couldn’t throw in CF so I guess it’s just the Cardinals way to be stupid.

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  17. Perkins

    dmick89: Hammel is kind of delusional. He’s acted as if he’s done nothing to deserve the early hooks. I don’t like ERA, but someone should show him what his has been since his injury. It’s sucked ass.

    Maybe there’s some huge discrepancy between how he feels on the mound and the results, but apparently he’s never seen that Alec Baldwin scene in Glengarry Glen Ross.

    Have to wonder if he gets traded in the offseason. He seems to be the only player on the roster not having fun right now.

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  18. dmick89

    Perkins,

    He’s got to be a pain in the ass to be around right now because everyone else is having fun and he’s complaining about only making one bad pitch. Yeah, very likely he’ll be traded IMO.

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  19. Millertime

    dmick89,

    With Hendricks doing so much better than anticipated, and Hammel having a friendly contract, trading him seems like a solid move. Especially if the Cubs end up signing someone like Price.

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  20. Urk

    Agreed. If you don’t need a back up-backup catcher, then you have a Molina that can bat there. If you don’t have a Molina that can bat there, then you needed a backup catcher when you could still get one. Pure speculation, but I wonder if he was worried that putting Molina on the DL would demoralize the team enough to effect play? If so, he’s spending too much time thinking about narratives and morale, or his players are.

    I’ve got a couple of Cardinals fans on my FB feed who hope that this outcome gets Metheny fired. They all think that he’s a good guy in the clubhouse but really hate his in-game and personell moves.

    dmick89: To be fair, I’m not really sure he had an alternative. I don’t like Matheny, but I think that meant there was no chance Yadier Molina could play. If that was the case, they should have DL’d him and got another catcher ready. So I think the dumb part there was by not making a better decision with Molina. The guy probably shouldn’t even have been on the postseason roster. He could barely catch the ball and could barely swing. Normally those guys don’t play postseason games. Then again, they had a guy who couldn’t throw in CF so I guess it’s just the Cardinals way to be stupid.

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  21. JonKneeV

    SportsCenter has a segment today about the Cubs. Guess what they explored? You’ll be shocked to know that they talked to the owner of Harry Caray’s about the Bartman ball, talked to some lunatic with a goat statue and a skeleton in his closet, and asked random fans about Moises Alou’s glove that Harry Caray’s owner bought from him.

    CAN THEY PLEASE WIN THIS YEAR SO THIS SHIT STOPS?!?

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  22. dmick89

    Urk: They all think that he’s a good guy in the clubhouse but really hate his in-game and personell moves.

    This I’ve come to accept is just something all managers suck at. Or perhaps it’s better to say we all suck at evaluating the managers to their peers rather than our expectations. I don’t know. Joe Maddon is very smart, but I knew he made a lot of boneheaded decisions before they even hired him because MGL is for some reason fascinated by his dumb decisions. He highlights them all for reasons unknown.

    It’s funny though. I know berselius disagrees, but I think most other Cubs fans agree that letting Hammel bat wasn’t too smart. It ended with a good result. Maddon always talks about the process over the result. i agree with that and love to hear him say it, but in many cases, his process is wrong. I’ve come to think that managers just suck at making in-game decisions. So if the players are happy and if they’re playing well, then I think the manager has done a good job overall.

    I’ve said even in this thread, but I think Maddon is one of the best managers in the game. I just managers suck at in-game decisions. If you see something wrong with your pitcher that you’ve got the bullpen up in the 2nd inning and he comes up in a high leverage situation, you’ve got to pinch hit for him. The Cubs are lucky this game didn’t get away from them with Hammel on the mound after that. I know Maddon didn’t say it, but I wonder how much a 2-1 lead in the series influenced his decision to let Hammel bat. Down 1-2, there’s not a chance in hell that Hammel bats in that situation.

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  23. Perkins

    Millertime:
    dmick89,

    With Hendricks doing so much better than anticipated, and Hammel having a friendly contract, trading him seems like a solid move.Especially if the Cubs end up signing someone like Price.

    What I’m trying to figure out is who is a better #5 option than Hammel, assuming the Cubs pick up Price or Zimmerman.

    Internally, they could give Jacob Turner a shot, or maybe Wood or Richard (though they’ve been much more effective as relievers).

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  24. dmick89

    JonKneeV: CAN THEY PLEASE WIN THIS YEAR SO THIS SHIT STOPS?!?

    This. I can’t wait for the media to treat their jobs and its fans like they should. Also, I can’t wait for the fans to grow up and forget about stupid shit that has no impact on their game in 2015.

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  25. dmick89

    With Richard around, I’d like to see Wood given another shot to start. Put him in the 5th spot and be happy with the 5 innings he gives you every 5th game.

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  26. Perkins

    dmick89:
    With Richard around, I’d like to see Wood given another shot to start. Put him in the 5th spot and be happy with the 5 innings he gives you every 5th game.

    Another nice thing about Wood as a starter is that he’s competent with the bat and is a decent baserunner, which lengthens the bench on days he doesn’t start.

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  27. cerulean

    dmick89:
    Who signs for more money? Price or Greinke

    If we are speculating about seasons that are not done—and why the hell not, because fuck superstition—would Greinke come to Chicago? Would Hoyer/Epstein/Ricketts open the coffers to sign him?

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  28. Suburban kid

    I didn’t mind Hammel batting. There was less than two outs and while a DP was possible, I thought that a hit, SF or K were equally possible. It was only the second inning, right? That’s a little early to be pulling your starter down by 2, and I recall Hammel settling down in the third inning in recent starts. Obviously he didn’t settle down.

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  29. dmick89

    cerulean: If we are speculating about seasons that are not done—and why the hell not, because fuck superstition—would Greinke come to Chicago? Would Hoyer/Epstein/Ricketts open the coffers to sign him?

    He apparently likes LA a lot so my guess is he sticks around there. I think the Cubs go after Price or Zimmerman, but Zimmerman will get less than either of those two. I think Greinke ends up getting more money because LA prints money these days. I think Price is probably the more valuable player going forward.

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  30. Rice Cube

    Re: dumb decisions, I’m of the mind that most manager “gut” decisions are dumb by default but sometimes there’s something unquantifiable about “feel” and “flow” that managers seem to have a much better handle on than the rest of us peasants.

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  31. Rice Cube

    dmick89,

    While there’s some ambiguity on what the Cubs want to do going forward, they could probably afford Price easily and his not costing a pick would be very helpful as well. He’s got to be their big name target.

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  32. Rizzo the Rat

    I know I’ve complained about Maddon a lot, but I’m sure he’s above average. I like how he doesn’t automatically bunt when the pitcher is hitting with a runner on and less than two outs.

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  33. Millertime

    dmick89,

    Yes, a million times this. I honestly don’t even think most fans care, other than typical meatbag fans who exist in every fandom. It seems like the people who care about it the most are national media types, and fans of other teams.

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  34. dmick89

    I don’t know if most fans care or not. it’s hard for me to know because the fans I know are the ones I see online, mostly at this place. Fans at this place don’t care. I know that and I think most fans who are active on blogs don’t care either, but I think those fans make up such a small minority of the larger fan base. We are in the minority in that we almost live, eat and breath this shit. I have a low opinion of the average fan. I think they have minimal understanding of the game and they probably do feel as though there’s something to the curse.

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  35. Urk

    Suburban kid:
    I didn’t mind Hammel batting. There was less than two outs and while a DP was possible, I thought that a hit, SF or K were equally possible. It was only the second inning, right? That’s a little early to be pulling your starter down by 2, and I recall Hammel settling down in the third inning in recent starts. Obviously he didn’t settle down.

    Yeah, I was calling for Hammel to get pulled in the middle of the first, and was in the middle of typing a comment about how stupid it was to bat him, just as he got this hit, but in retrospect I think it was ok and not just because he got the hit. In my mind then, as armchair manager, I was thinking about this game as if the Cubs weren’t up 2-1 because I was desperate for a win here to keep it from going back to St. Louis. But that’s not the situation. That knowledge, and some confidence in your team’s offense lets you make decisions about in-game resources differently. There’s no such thing as a reliable counterfactual, but given that we went through 8 pitchers as it is, I’m not sure that starting to burn through relievers any earlier would have been a good decision.

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  36. Urk

    I think that you can break down people who believe in the curse or talk about it as something real into a couple of different categories: hardcore fans who are really stupid, and casual fans who don’t pay a lot of attention or know much about the game/team but are looking for something to talk about RE: The Cubs. I’m just happy to see a surprising number of news stories actually focusing on the actual team that’s doing this now.

    dmick89:
    I don’t know if most fans care or not. it’s hard for me to know because the fans I know are the ones I see online, mostly at this place. Fans at this place don’t care. I know that and I think most fans who are active on blogs don’t care either, but I think those fans make up such a small minority of the larger fan base. We are in the minority in that we almost live, eat and breath this shit. I have a low opinion of the average fan. I think they have minimal understanding of the game and they probably do feel as though there’s something to the curse.

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  37. dmick89

    Urk,

    I think Maddon manages the game a bit differently if he takes him out then. I think the extra inning from Hammel make it easier for Maddon to only use Wood for one inning. Oh well. In the end it doesn’t matter. The Cubs won and Hammel complains that he made only one bad pitch.

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  38. andcounting

    FWIW, I loved the bunt. I was pretty surprised they got Bryant out. He got no secondary lead from third, which I hated. But I like the probability of both scoring a run and avoiding an out on that play.

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  39. Author
    berselius

    FWIW as far as TBS goes I think we get EJ and Cal in the NLCS, who at least seem like they have worked together at some point in their lives. Though I really wish they take the suggestion of whoever it was (Perkins?) and put Pedro in the booth.

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  40. Author
    berselius

    Perkins: He seems to be the only player on the roster not having fun right now.

    Coghlan hasn’t been super happy either, though at least with more justification. He’s having a good year and just can’t get playing time.

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  41. Author
    berselius

    Urk: Agreed. If you don’t need a back up-backup catcher, then you have a Molina that can bat there. If you don’t have a Molina that can bat there, then you needed a backup catcher when you could still get one.

    Everything I remember reading before the game was that hitting was the issue much more than catching after whatever had been reaggravated in game 3. Matheny should have pinch hit for Cruz and if the game went into extras, he’d just have to take the risk of having Molina just stand up there and never swing at anything. Couldn’t be worse than having a pitcher hit.

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  42. Author
    berselius

    dmick89: It’s funny though. I know berselius disagrees, but I think most other Cubs fans agree that letting Hammel bat wasn’t too smart. It ended with a good result. Maddon always talks about the process over the result. i agree with that and love to hear him say it, but in many cases, his process is wrong. I’ve come to think that managers just suck at making in-game decisions. So if the players are happy and if they’re playing well, then I think the manager has done a good job overall.

    My quasi-defense here is also process related – if they had so little faith in Hammel in the first place, why even start him? They needed innings more than anything out of him, my expectation going into the game was 4-5 innings and 2-3 runs, and he was still doing just fine as far as that goes.

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  43. Perkins

    berselius: Coghlan hasn’t been super happy either, though at least with more justification. He’s having a good year and just can’t get playing time.

    Yeah, in his case he has the misfortune of being surrounded by people who play his position as well or better. And it seems like he has been in a bit of a slump, so that compounds it.

    In Hammel’s case, the “as well or better” is a bullpen game. That has to sting.

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  44. Author
    berselius

    dmick89: Down 1-2, there’s not a chance in hell that Hammel bats in that situation.

    Down 1-2, it would have been a moot point since Lester would be starting the game on short rest anyway.

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  45. Author
    berselius

    dmick89: He apparently likes LA a lot so my guess is he sticks around there. I think the Cubs go after Price or Zimmerman, but Zimmerman will get less than either of those two. I think Greinke ends up getting more money because LA prints money these days. I think Price is probably the more valuable player going forward.

    Given how big chemistry etc has been a narrative this year, I wonder if the Cubs stay away from a big push for Grienke since from all accounts he’s kind of a prick.

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  46. Suburban kid

    Coghlan sounded super happy on the radio postgame, and I saw someone post something somehwere about his TV interview which would apparently make us all real happy if we watched it

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  47. Author
    berselius

    Suburban kid:
    Coghlan sounded super happy on the radio postgame, and I saw someone post something somehwere about his TV interview which would apparently make us all real happy if we watched it

    I’ve only seen MO bring it up on twitter, but haven’t seen any actual quotes etc.

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  48. Suburban kid

    berselius,

    He sounded off to one of the beat writers a couple weeks ago about playing time, perhaps he’s remembering that. I did, so I was glad to hear him enjoying himself.

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  49. Author
    berselius

    Were the announcers really that in the bag for the Cardinals? I was at a bar so wasn't 100% paying attention to the broadcast but I never felt bothered by anything along those lines. And even if they were, I don't mind that narrative too much. It's not like the Cardinals don't have a lot of recent and not so recent success in the playoffs. It certainly beats the 15,000 goat/Bartman references we'd get on FOX.

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  50. myles

    I think the Cubs will definitely be in on Price/Greinke/Cueto (who seems like the best bet to land here in my opinion)/Zimmerman, and I think they’ll probably send feelers out for trading a young hitter for a younger pitching prospect. I don’t think they’ll end up signing any of the very big arms (which is fine with me if they get at least one capable starter), but it also wouldn’t shock me.

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  51. dmick89

    berselius: Down 1-2, it would have been a moot point since Lester would be starting the game on short rest anyway.

    Didn’t Maddon name Hammel as the game 4 starter before game 3? I know he said he was never a consideration to use Lester on short rest. I don’t know if I agree. Down 2-1, I also think Lester starts, but Joe has been fairly honest with the media. Who knows? Glad we didn’t find out.

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  52. Author
    berselius

    dmick89: Didn’t Maddon name Hammel as the game 4 starter before game 3? I know he said he was never a consideration to use Lester on short rest. I don’t know if I agree. Down 2-1, I also think Lester starts, but Joe has been fairly honest with the media. Who knows? Glad we didn’t find out.

    I can’t remember when he announced it, but I figured that was the main reason he was so cagey with the decision to begin with.

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  53. Author
    berselius

    myles:
    I think the Cubs will definitely be in on Price/Greinke/Cueto (who seems like the best bet to land here in my opinion)/Zimmerman, and I think they’ll probably send feelers out for trading a young hitter for a younger pitching prospect. I don’t think they’ll end up signing any of the very big arms (which is fine with me if they get at least one capable starter), but it also wouldn’t shock me.

    Didn’t Cueto have a dust-up with the team last year? I think it was with DeJesus but I wonder if there’s still some bad blood there.

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  54. dmick89

    myles: Pierce Johnson will be up midseason, if not earlier.

    I’m not sure Johnson is any kind of answer. At the age of 24 in AA, he didn’t strikeout very many this year and walked a few more than you’d like. His K-BB% was only 10% and he’s old for that level. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a rough time in AAA and is moved to the bullpen. If his strikeouts don’t return to where they were prior to last season, I don’t see him making it as a starter. He’s not even as good as Kyle Hendricks if that’s the case. I think Ivan Pineyro is the best hope from within the system to make a difference in the rotation in the next year or two. Even Pineyro doesn’t strikeout as many as you’d like, but he showed really good control last year. He’s also a year younger than Johnson.

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  55. myles

    berselius: Didn’t Cueto have a dust-up with the team last year? I think it was with DeJesus but I wonder if there’s still some bad blood there.

    I thought was with Chapman, but maybe you’re right. I’ll poke around.

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  56. Author
    berselius

    myles,

    (dying laughing), that’s what it was. The best part of all that was that it was Garza and Dusty Baker who were talking the most shit, and they were both in the dugouts.

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  57. myles

    dmick89: I’m not sure Johnson is any kind of answer. At the age of 24 in AA, he didn’t strikeout very many this year and walked a few more than you’d like. His K-BB% was only 10% and he’s old for that level. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a rough time in AAA and is moved to the bullpen. If his strikeouts don’t return to where they were prior to last season, I don’t see him making it as a starter. He’s not even as good as Kyle Hendricks if that’s the case. I think Ivan Pineyro is the best hope from within the system to make a difference in the rotation in the next year or two. Even Pineyro doesn’t strikeout as many as you’d like, but he showed really good control last year. He’s also a year younger than Johnson.

    If Ivan Pineyro is our best chance, we’re in real trouble. We traded him to the Marlins this season.

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  58. myles

    myles: If Ivan Pineyro is our best chance, we’re in real trouble. We traded him to the Marlins this season.

    To be less of an asshole, Johnson has had lots of injuries that he’s been recovering. I’m willing to buy that as the reason he’s old for his level and hasn’t been that effective this season. Prospect junkets still buy Johnson as a back-end starter, so while it might be wishcasting I’m willing to hold out hope that still happens. I don’t want to be in a position where the Cubs have to rely on Johnson for starts, but if he’s one of some intriguing options I’ll be relatively happy.

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  59. Author
    berselius

    myles: If Ivan Pineyro is our best chance, we’re in real trouble. We traded him to the Marlins this season.

    Hopefully for Ricky Nolasco.

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  60. dmick89

    I don’t see anyone then. Not even in High A. Duane Underwood had the best results, but I could strikeout as many as he does.

    If you’re talking possible bullpen games in the postseason, a starting pitcher has to be atop the priorities list this offseason. It’s going to be a long time before the Cubs get something from their minor leagues. Pierce Johnson is the best they’ve got and he’s not all that good.

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  61. myles

    dmick89:
    I don’t see anyone then. Not even in High A. Duane Underwood had the best results, but I could strikeout as many as he does.

    If you’re talking possible bullpen games in the postseason, a starting pitcher has to be atop the priorities list this offseason. It’s going to be a long time before the Cubs get something from their minor leagues. Pierce Johnson is the best they’ve got and he’s not all that good.

    This is the major reason I think the Cubs are trading a bat for an arm. We really don’t have any impact arms on the horizon, even in the bullpen. It’s too expensive to build an entire staff out of free agency, and for many of the Cubs’ bats, their value is at an all-time high. I could see the Cubs cashing one chip in pretty easily (Baez? even Castro?) for a good, young pitcher.

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  62. dmick89

    myles,

    The prospect junkies were still buying CJ Edwards as a starter last year despite nearly every sign on the planet pointing in the reliever direction. I think there’s too much hype surrounding the Cubs farm system to know what’s accurate and what’s fluff. All we’ve got are the numbers.

    FWIW, I can also buy some of the drop in strikeouts on recovery, but not all. Repeating a level, even coming back from injury, you should show more strikeout potential than he did. Hopefully he comes back even healthier next year, but we’re still talking about a 25-year old. I can’t think of a 25-year old “prospect” I’ve ever been excited about.

    In Johnson’s last 5 starts (when you’d hope he’d be better than first coming back), he struckout 18, walked 10, allowed 2 home runs and 12 runs in 29.1 innings.

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  63. dmick89

    myles: This is the major reason I think the Cubs are trading a bat for an arm. We really don’t have any impact arms on the horizon, even in the bullpen. It’s too expensive to build an entire staff out of free agency, and for many of the Cubs’ bats, their value is at an all-time high. I could see the Cubs cashing one chip in pretty easily (Baez? even Castro?) for a good, young pitcher.

    Yeah, I think they’ll do that, but I also think they’ll add a good starter through free agency. Maybe not Price. You’re going to have to out-bid a lot of teams and that’s not likely. Zimmerman should be easier to get though.

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  64. dmick89

    As for the bullpen, I actually think Edwards can be a very dominating reliever that costs league minimum. I think Pierce Johnson could be too. Hopefully Johnson starts doing better at AAA next year, but the Cubs should make a decision about starter/reliever by mid-season next year.

    I’m not too worried about bullpen arms. Duane Underwood could be another that sees a huge improvement when moved to the bullpen. I’m sure there are several of those guys in the system.

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  65. JimL

    Suburban kid: He sounded off to one of the beat writers a couple weeks ago about playing time, perhaps he’s remembering that. I did, so I was glad to hear him enjoying himself.

    I think if you ask any bench or platoon player they will say that they wish they were playing more. Some might sugarcoat it and highlight “what’s best for the team” stuff but they all want to play more. LaStella wants to play more, Baez wants to play more, Denorfia wants to play more, Richards wants to pitch more. Herrera wants to make the postseason roster. So did Rosscup. There is no doubt in my mind that Coghlan thinks he should play more.

    I think it is just a combination of a beat reporter framing a question a certain way, Coghlan being a bit too candid in his answers, and the beat reporter selectively quoting what Coghlan said.

    Since there is no other evidence of friction or unhappiness from Cogs and he genuinely seems happy to be part of this team, I think it is safe to say that it isn’t really an issue and isn’t causing any problems.

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  66. Perkins

    dmick89: Yeah, I think they’ll do that, but I also think they’ll add a good starter through free agency. Maybe not Price. You’re going to have to out-bid a lot of teams and that’s not likely. Zimmerman should be easier to get though.

    I’ve been thinking Zimmerman is the most likely candidate as well based on age, relative expense, and contract duration. If the Cubs lock up Arrieta, that’s three pitchers they’ll be paying $25MM+ into their late 30s if they sign David Price or Zack Greinke.

    Not that I expect Zimmerman to be cheap, but it also doesn’t seem like this front office’s MO to lock up that big a percentage of payroll in 3 players.

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  67. Perkins

    JimL: I think if you ask any bench or platoon player they will say that they wish they were playing more. Some might sugarcoat it and highlight “what’s best for the team” stuff but they all want to play more. LaStella wants to play more, Baez wants to play more, Denorfia wants to play more, Richards wants to pitch more. Herrera wants to make the postseason roster. So did Rosscup. There is no doubt in my mind that Coghlan thinks he should play more.

    I think it is just a combination of a beat reporter framing a question a certain way, Coghlan being a bit too candid in his answers, and the beat reporter selectively quoting what Coghlan said.

    Since there is no other evidence of friction or unhappiness from Cogs and he genuinely seems happy to be part of this team, I think it is safe to say that it isn’t really an issue and isn’t causing any problems.

    He’s also had something of a career revival here, and is likely to get a decent contract when he hits free agency, so probably in his interest not to rock the boat too much.

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