Cubs 8, Dodgers 2

In Postgame by berselius99 Comments

OSS: Yan Gomes leads the homer parade

Three up:

  1. Yan Gomes hit two solo homers, as part of a five homer day for the Cubs. Perhaps even more impressively, he stole a base that led to the Cubs first run. That was the eighth stolen base of his decade+ career in the majors (dying laughing).
  2. Justin Steele had yet another solid start, striking out eight over seven innings and generally keeping the Dodgers off balance all night. He only made two mistakes, and the Dodgers made him pay with two no-doubt solo shots. He might have been a little gassed in his last inning but it’s still nice to see a pitcher go past the sixth inning these days.
  3. Ian Happ was the Cubs WPA winner on the day, going 4-4 with three RsBI and a homer. Happ’s ground rule double gave the Cubs their first lead in the third inning, and his homer in the eighth inning kicked off the rally that put this one out of reach.

Three down:

  1. Dansby Swanson had a rough game, striking out in all five of his PAs for the Platinum Sombrero. I’m not sure what 6 K’s would count as. Palladium Sombrero?
  2. It’s been kind of a moot point doing this section when I only get around to doing postgames for wins (dying laughing). So I’ll complain about another game. I’m still baffled why Simulated Madden Player was such a lock for this bullpen when he had all of 50 replacement level innings over three seasons to his name. Maybe the Cubs new pitchlab likes him, but it feels weird to me, as a guy who watches spreadsheets play the game.
  3. What the heck is up with the Dodger stadium turf. It’s a good thing the games are shorter now, because that grass color somehow looks even more artificial than old school, Metrodome-era Astroturf. Maybe it’s actually radioactive, and that’s where the Dodgers have picked up all their powers over the last few years.

Next up:

Michael Grove takes on Jameson Taillon, who’s hoping to finally have a start where his ERA is in line with his peripherals.

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  2. andcounting

    Over the next almost two months (until June 13) the Cubs have just six divisional games (3 against the Cardinals and 3 against the Reds). This season is so weird and interesting.

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  3. andcounting

    And while it’s way too early to read anything into just about anything, the current wildcard standings are hysterical.

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  4. Rice Cube

    My early think, with small sample caveats, is that it is kind of cool to have some diversity in the lineup such that a guy going 4-4 can offset some 0-5 lines while the 1-5 guys at least made their one hit count, having some level of coverage in the lineup is something I haven’t often seen in the past seasons and it’s very refreshing when it happens

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  6. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    I think that’s another way to frame the fact that a few Cubs have had significant hot stretches at the plate. As a team, their OPS+ is 109 (last year was 97) so they’re hitting above average. And Happ (197!!!!) and Wisdom (138) are having really good seasons so far. Swanson and Hoerner have also been pretty consistent traditional 1-2 guys. But the bottom half of the lineup still looks iffy, though definitely better with Suzuki back. But nothing about what I’ve seen makes me think the defense and pitching can relax. (dying laughing)

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  10. andcounting

    Javy had a mental meltdown a couple days ago, then broke out with a great game yesterday. Just concluded a 12-pitch at bat with a 2-run double to pull the Tigers within one of the Giants in the bottom of the eighth. Happy to see it.

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  13. Rice Cube

    Rice Cube:
    I would be curious to read a lengthy discussion about this from one of the beat guys because I think Rocco had a point, if there’s any suspicion the guy should’ve been tossed and they needed to bag up all his stuff to send to the lab

    https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/twins-manager-ejected-for-arguing-after-yankees-pitcher-stays-in-game-following-lengthy-sticky-stuff-check/

    Apparently just a rosin issue but I still think I see Rocco’s point, if the umpire has to check you for that long you should hit the showers, but maybe MLB should just start testing those pre-sticky balls already

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  30. Author
    berselius

    You’d think after the proposal guy got rekt, the Dodgers would have fewer field security issues (dying laughing)

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  47. andcounting

    Like, he’s not a closer. We have proof now. Beyond the career 66% save conversion rate. Can we stop with this?

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  48. Rice Cube

    My immediate thoughts
    1. Wasting that bases loaded opportunity was very bad, one run won’t do it most of the time
    2. Still had a chance to get out of it but luck only goes so far
    3. Seiya made it a super close play!
    4. Have a chance albeit a slim one to win the series tomorrow

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  52. Rice Cube

    Rice Cube,

    But to be marginally more serious, I think Fulmer generally made the pitches he needed to get fairly meek contact, and due to a combination of the Cubs scoring just one run and terribly shitty luck, it went south. I don’t think closer by committee is the most ideal strategy because they’re still humans who need set roles, but you can’t obviously have Adbert or Thompson do 3-inning saves all the time, and if they do try matchups soon, someone in the crowd will eventually grab the job anyway

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  53. BVS

    Not sure why they didn’t walk Peralta to face Barnes and his anemic BA. Or whatever other PH came up. At that point, with 1st open and that run meaning nothing, why not play the splits? Peralta is better against RHPs.

    Good on Shelby Miller for getting his 1st win in 4 years, I guess.

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  54. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    I think you’re looking at this way too specifically. This isn’t a matter of “F-U…” doing a bad job last night. This is a matter of him blowing 1/3 of his save opportunities for his career. This is a matter of a pitcher that can be relied upon with statistical consistency to allow 1.26 baserunners per inning. It’s a guy who strikes out fewer than one batter per inning. This is a matter of closing itself being a specific skill and him very definitively not possessing that skill. He doesn’t have a knack for closing, and he doesn’t have the peripherals to indicate he’d make a good closer even with more confidence or adrenaline management. So while he’s not out there having meltdowns where he just loses the strike zone completely (I’m not attacking you, Carl Edwards Jr., I promise) he doesn’t need to in order to be a really crappy closer.

    I honestly don’t give a shit who has “Chicago Cubs Closer” on their LinkedIn profile. But when you’re pitching for the Cubs in the 9th inning with the tying and winning runs in scoring position, guess what? You’re the closer. When the Cubs are ahead and they need the game to end RIGHT NOW, if the person on the mound isn’t the starter, they’re the closer. Committee or not, Fulmer needs to not be the closer. He needs to not be on the committee.

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  55. BVS

    BVS,

    I mean, what’s the likelihood of scoring with bases loaded and 2 out vs guys on 2nd and 3rd with 2 out? Gotta be slightly less for juiced with options for force outs, no?

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  56. andcounting

    BVS,

    Or at least try to get him to chase or something? They threw him a thigh-high cutter right down the goddamn middle on the very first pitch.

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  57. andcounting

    BVS:
    BVS,

    I mean, what’s the likelihood of scoring with bases loaded and 2 out vs guys on 2nd and 3rd with 2 out? Gotta be slightly less for juiced with options for force outs, no?

    I thought the same thing. But looking at 9th inning win-probability numbers, I can’t find a timeframe where that walk doesn’t lower the visiting team’s win probability by about 5%. Even with one out, that walk tends to help the home team (ignoring the comparison of the hitters involved).

    I’m guessing the likelihood of a game-tying walk tips the scales.

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  58. Rice Cube

    andcounting,

    He did say in the post-game that he made a bad pitch that didn’t cut enough and most of us were like “well duh” (dying laughing)

    One foot this way or that and the Cubs either win or Seiya throws out the trailing guy and they go to extras and lose there, but your point about him not having the right skill set is taken well, they probably should try Fulmer as setup and then try *waves hands* somebody else for a bit, Ross post-game comments suggest he wasn’t so much dumb as trying to not throw his current closer under the bus but I’m just trying to see the best in everything

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  60. andcounting

    Rice Cube,

    I think the fairest way to portray last night’s 9th inning is to say Fulmer pitched exactly as you’d expect him to. Were the Dodgers lucky to score two runs? Well, they had a .750 BABiP, so I’d say so. But nothing happened to shock anyone in any way, right? If the 9th inning events were the product of a series of dice rolls, we wouldn’t be sending those dice into a lab for testing afterward.

    I guess my big point is, using Fulmer as the closer was an experiment in which the Cubs hoped they’d discover an unknown truth: that he could be a decent closer. Maybe that possibility had yet to be explored. Worth looking into? A stretch, at best. But they looked into it. And now that we’ve looked into it, it’s 100% safe to say, nope. I’m not thrilled that they tried it, but I’ll be pretty pissed if they just ignore the results of this test.

    And just to reiterate, this ain’t some small sample. It’s his entire career. He’s not the closer you’re looking for.

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  61. BVS

    BVS,

    Now that I think about it, I’d never walk that guy in high school ball, because the BB or HBP is so much more likely, unless I knew I had a reliever that was a sure fire strike thrower. But in HS ball, those are pretty rare, especially at our size (~900 kids in HS).

    But if I had a RP available with 3%BB rate or less, I’d walk Peralta. (Plus splits, etc.)

    Eh, well, we’re still about a . 500 team so meeting expectations. Maybe Roberts will make a decision that Dodger Nation can armchair today.

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  62. andcounting

    BVS,

    Yeah, I mean the difference isn’t so great that it could never be the right move. Depending on who’s up, who’s on deck, and who’s available on the opponent’s bench, walking the bases loaded could be a great move.

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  77. Author
    berselius

    I’m not usually a Sutcliffe fan, but he’s been pretty solid as the color commentator in this series.

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  95. Perkins

    I didn’t know the Dodgers had an alternate, let alone a home alternate. Given they’re in the S tier of baseball uniforms, that feels wrong.

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  98. Author
    berselius

    Rice Cube:
    Perkins,

    I’m one of the rare Cubs fans who likes the alternate blues with the walking bear logo

    Extreme same, if only because of its association in my head with Carlos Zambrano.

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