OSS: Cubs win a bizarre one.
Three Six up
There were too many crazy plays in this game to stick to just three. WPA-wise this was one of the craziest games I’ve seen. There were twenty separate plays that swung win probability by more than ten percent.
- The biggest one was Jorge Soler‘s game-tying homer in the ninth (.470 WPA). Something tells me the Pirates might be missing Mark Melancon a little bit.
- The Cubs second biggest play of the game was Kris Bryant‘s single that sent Fowler to third base down a run in the thirteenth inning. Looks like all those people trying to pump the brakes on Bryant hit the wrong pedal. In all, Bryant went 2-3 with three walks on the day.
- Javy Baez also managed to post a near-.500 WPA on the day, thanks to a single, double, and most importantly a triple late in the game. He nearly scored the winning run twice in extras but was thrown out at home each time. He might have been safe on the first one but it was so close that it was impossible to overturn.
- Willson Contreras hit a 2 run homer in the eighth inning to put the Cubs within one, but still managed to have a very slightly negative WPA day.
- Jake Arrieta was having a pretty good outing until I got home and noticed how efficient he was being today. He promptly gave up a single, walk, and a three run homer. I’m still taking encouragement away from his last two starts, as he seems a little less wild than he has been. I didn’t see most of the first nine of this game, but judging from the reactions on the twittersphere it sounds like the home plate ump wasn’t doing him any favors.
- The bullpen did end up blowing the lead, but still had a pretty good outing. I’ll blame the inherited Arrieta baserunners scoring on the ump. They pitched 6.2 innings, giving up one run and striking out nine while walking three.
Three down
- The bottom WPA game was some shitty ass luck for the Cubs. With the bases clogged in the tenth with one out, Rizzo hit one right to Jack Sparrow and the exact trajectory of the ball brought him over to first base as he was frantically throwing home to prevent the winning run from scoring.
- Addison Russell wasn’t far behind him on the WPA chart, hitting a would-be sac fly to score Baez after his triple only to see Marte nail Baez by a mile with a great throw. It’s tough to dock Russell’s WPA due to what was a bad send topped by a fantastic throw by Marte. The Bucs OF defense is good and that ball wasn’t all that deep.
- The Cubs stranded about five billion runners on base. Just a rough estimate.
Next up: Chad Kuhl (RHP) takes on Cubs Ace Kyle Hendricks at 7:05 PM CT
Comments
I get to see staff ace Kyle Hendricks tonight.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Two Cub items that make me happy this morning: Clawing back to win last night, and extendein the agreement with Myrtle Beach through 2020. Latter means I get to watch more baby Cubs.
BVSQuote Reply
I see I was new shat
“Pitchers were gassed” does not appear to be just a narrative, unless the pitchers themselves decided to buy into it.
Arrieta says he was gassed, and looked it. Hammel was complete shit and vowed to embark on a much more intense off season training program.
Joe has always (I mean since I’ve been watching him, two seasons) emphasized rest throughout the whole season and it seems to help. Nobody minds when the manager decides to give an SP an extra day or even skip a turn once in awhile. He could have done that all September without using the words “6-man rotation” and no one would say anything.
Is there a chance Montgomery or Cahill might be better than Hammel? I wouldn’t mind finding out. I know the playoffs won’t require 5 starters let alone 6, but if there’s any injury (or Lackey doesn’t come back as planned) there is a chance to figure this shit out now.
SKQuote Reply
If they get swept out of the playoffs, I’ll be so pissed.
EdwinQuote Reply
Cubs might have missed out big time on this Rich Hill kid:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rich-hill-truly-curveballs-like-no-one-else/
EdwinQuote Reply
I’m all for doing a 6-man rotation until the playoffs. Hell, I’ll take an 8-man rotation if that’s what gets our pitchers across the finish line. Put Cahill and Grimm out there.
MylesQuote Reply
SK,
I don’t remember the starting pitching being all that bad in the Cardinals series. I know Lester was good and I remember Arrieta’s strikeout and walk numbers were pretty good, but I think he gave up a long ball or two. Hammel got yanked early, but that’s going to happen again with him so not so surprising there. I can’t remember much about Hendricks vs. the Cardinals. Against the Mets I think they all sucked, but the Cubs had a turn or two through the rotation earlier this year where they all seemingly gave up a billion runs.
I’m sure Arrieta was a bit tired, but I think that narrative existed only because he didn’t pitch up to the less than 1 run per 9 innings expectations that Cubs fans had of him at that point. Hammel? It’s not like a bad start from him is cause for alarm. He has them.
I’m guessing there are a few teams each year that talk about how their rotation was tired down the stretch and in the postseason and there may be some truth to it, but most of it just talk.
Do I really care about the Cubs going to a 6-man rotation? Not really. I’d rather they just stick with the 5-man rotation and stay on similar rest patterns to what they’d expect in the postseason, but an extra day or so of rest isn’t going to be the reason they end up losing in the postseason. Neither will a tired rotation be the reason for it. They’ll just get beat by a team that outperformed them if they do end up losing in the playoffs. If they don’t lose a series, that won’t have happened because they were more rested or had similar days of rest between starts that they were used to. They’ll just outperform their opponents and the media and players will come up with a narrative for why that was so.
dmick89Quote Reply
How many games are left – 32? Put in a 32 man rotation.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
It’s not like the Cubs need 7, 8 or 9 innings from these guys in their starts. Unless they have a big lead, there’s probably no excuse why one of them should be in there after the 7th inning (maybe even after the 6th). If Rondon and Strop come back healthy, there’s no reason whatsoever any of them should be in there after 6 innings. Maybe even 5 at that point if you can mix and match lefty/righty.
dmick89Quote Reply
Kris Bryant is basically hitting .300/.400/.600. Not bad.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Especially with Sep callups, and the lead they have in the standings.
EdwinQuote Reply
Another young player the Cubs let get away smh
BerseliusQuote Reply
Usually why I like orgs that give their players a 8-10 year leash.
MylesQuote Reply
Few things in life I like more than the trinity slash. .3xx/.4xx/.5xx is so aesthetically pleasing.
Also, still have the “showing up as someone else” issue.
Myles, not BVSQuote Reply
Myles,
I think all young players should be signed to player friendly contracts of 15 years or longer. Because you never know when talent will show up.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Time to check in to see what Hayden Simpson is up to these days.
EdwinQuote Reply
False
SKQuote Reply
I like that Jorge Soler retweeted a vine of himself crushing a 9th inning game tying homer.
SKQuote Reply
Soler has a .963 OPS since returning from the DL. Maybe we didn’t need Josh Reddick after all.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
BTW, Josh Reddick has a .359 OPS in August.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Yeah, good call by the Cubs. It will be interesting to see what the Cubs do this offseason. I think Soler could be trade bait for an elite starter.
dmick89Quote Reply
What’s that old cliche? Sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t make?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Never get involved in a land war in Asia.
berseliusQuote Reply
What about the Mongols?
umbraQuote Reply
Fuck them.
dmick89Quote Reply
Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Don’t tell me what to do.
berseliusQuote Reply
Meh. Could be better.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I can’t argue with you today.
MuckerQuote Reply
I wonder whether the Cubs should trade Soler plus for a current starting pitcher or for a really good set of mostly pitching prospects. The Cubs are pretty good in the SP department for next year, but not the year after. I don’t think that Soler will fetch a #3 controllable starter with possible upside. So getting an arm that may be a year or two away with the potential of a #1 would be good. With this defense, any groundball pitcher in the meantime will do.
Looking to the future, Montgomery and Zastryzny are interesting rotation candidates, particularly given the preponderance of righties in the current one. Cahill and/or Wood might take reasonable contracts to stick around in case of injury and the like. Even losing Arrieta, Lackey, and Hammel, the Cubs should have a serviceable rotation. That’s a great position to be in. Add one potential ace, whether a young gun or an overpriced free agent, and the Cubs would be pretty good with minimal luck in either direction.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Yeah, wonder.
SKQuote Reply
game thread up: http://obstructedview.net/pirates-cubs-game-thread-8-30-16/
dmick89Quote Reply