OSS: Cubs hit two homers in the rain and cruise to victory
Three up
- Rizzo homered for his third straight game, and added two walks as well. The Cubs were very patient in general today, drawing five walks and pushing the Reds starter's pitch count up around 100 by the end of the fifth inning. They're just a meat grinder for opposing bullpens. Thursday's long-ish reliever found himself DFA'd after the game, We'll see if the Cubs can force any more roster sacrifices for the sake of warm bodies to pitch to them.
- Javy Baez homered on a laser beam of a line drive that probably never got much more than five feet above the height of the wall on its whole trajectory (dying laughing). He scored two runs that his baserunning helped set up, including a sucessfully exectued suicide squeeze with the help of David Ross, and looked pretty great in the field too at 3b. I'm glad Maddon has been giving him so much playing time thus far.
- Jon Lester had a solid start, as uneventful as they come until the Reds got their first two runners on in the fifth. Billy Hamilton fill-in Tyler Holt nearly hit into a triple play to get him out of it, but he retired the last batter without incident. Aside from a solo shot by Dusty Baker lucky charm Zack Cozart, Lester cruied the rest of the way without incident. His final line was 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 4 K, and he had a couple of good swings of the bat too.
Three down
- The game turned into a laugher after the Cubs back-to-back-to-back doubles in the ninth, but before that the Cubs had Jon Lester bat for himself in the seventh. He went on to pitch another inning against the back half of the Reds lineup before his day was done. I guess is what the nitpicking theme of the season is going to be.
- The Cubs only particularly significant negative WPA play was Zobrist's flyout to end the first inning with runners on first and second. It's always great when you can pounce on a shaky starter early, especially when he's already issued two walks in the inning.
- Joey Votto is very good at baseball, but so far that's not the case in 2016. Grounding into a double play to 2b in the PA following another grounder to 2b that resulted in losing one's shit in the dugout can't be a great feeling. Or having that happen a day after a 16-0 no-hit loss.
Next up: Lackey v Straily, 6:05 PM CT
Comments
I get why folks are antsy about pitchers batting for themselves late in the game, but other than Arrieta’s no-hitter I don’t think any of the starters have had to throw much more than 100 pitches in most outings this season despite eating all the innings. I wonder of anyone has done a stress/leverage analysis to accompany the pitch count observation.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Yeah, it’s not so much about pitch counts as it is about in-game strategy.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rice in limbo,
I haven’t looked at the pinch hitting for the pitchers issue by even primarily looking at the number of pitches thrown. I’m sure some have, but as you said, most pitchers haven’t thrown that many pitches so it really hasn’t been an issue and I’m confident high pitch count games will not become one because of Maddon. I think he does a very good job with limiting high pitch outings.
Times through the order is the much more important thing at issue here. By the time these pitchers come up for the 2nd and especially the 3rd time through the order, they’re looking at facing the opposing team a 3rd time through the order. The batter has the advantage on the pitcher at this point. For guys like Lackey, Hammel and Hendricks, this is a really big deal. What it means is that there’s pretty much any of the 16 relievers currently on the Cubs roster who would more than likely be in a better position to retire batters at that point. In other words, just about any other pitcher on the Cubs roster would be a better pitcher (reliever only facing a few batters vs starter the 3rd time through the order or worse, a 4th time through the order). For Arrieta and Lester it’s a bit more complicated. They’re so good (especially Arrieta) that the point at which the reliever is more effective than the starter 3rd time through is going to require a more talented reliever.
Then there’s the advantage of using a position player in a plate appearance over a pitcher, which is considerable.
Anyway, berselius is right that it’s nitpicking, but it’s a valid complaint. Joe has most certainly made several wrong calls when it comes to pinch hitting for pitchers in the sense that it has hurt the Cubs. Not a great deal, but any net negative is a bad play. Make those decisions enough over the course of 162 and it adds up and based on last season and this, I see no reason to believe that Joe won’t continue to make poor decisions when it comes to pinch hitting for the pitchers. It’s frustrating because otherwise, Joe is a mostly fantastic manager.
If I had any other complaint about Joe at this point it’s the 8-man bullpen. There’s as much reason for the Cubs to have 8 in the bullpen as there is for them to have an entire roster filled with relievers. The relievers that they currently have are all struggling to get work. I’m guessing they would have to DFA someone and don’t want to do that, but they’re wasting a roster spot right now and are unable to even get Hector Rondon in a game for more than a week when they’re winning games.
I suspect very few people actually care about the whole pinch hitting thing. Pitchers batting doesn’t bother many National League fans so I don’t see any reason why this would be different. The vast majority of people just don’t care even though they’ll argue the strategy added for this very thing (pinch hitting for pitchers) is what separates the DH and non-DH league.
It’s something Joe isn’t very good at. It irritates me when it happens, but it’s not a big deal. Joe is a great manager despite this and I don’t expect him to be perfect. Truthfully, I find it a bit funny at this point since it’s so predictable. Every pitcher gets that one last AB to go out there and get another out, maybe 3. In Lester’s case, I didn’t really have a problem with it since it was the bottom half of the order. Probably the better move to pinch hit, but it’s close enough that it wasn’t a big deal.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Or roster construction
berseliusQuote Reply
Cubs 3rd order win percentage just about to break the .900 mark. Meanwhile, real win percentage sits at a much, much weaker .765.
As usual, the Cubes find some way to underachieve. #FireTheo
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
It’s easier to stomach if you view the bullpen as paid spectators.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
dmick89,
I think Maddon is much more willing to PH for the bottom 3 than Arrieta or Lester but that might just be my lying eyes. I also think he may be taking advantage of the soft April schedule to keep the pen fresh as part of a longer term strategy. At some point you assume Arrieta or Lester (and especially the other guys) will get torched, and that’s when you get the benefits of saving the bullets in those bullpen arms.
I also think the times through the order thing is much more significant after the top 2 guys, but so far it seems like Maddon is just trying to stretch guys out with lower stress outings early on.
It’d be a hell of a lot easier if they had the DH, of course.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
(dying laughing) but the Cubs don’t have to pay people to attend their events like Donald Trump does.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
In the case of last night’s game I think of it more as long term strategy than a single game’s W-L tactics. The Cubs had a three-run lead against a bad team, they have a giant pen that needs some work, and have stated in general that they want to give their top players more rest.
In Joe’s defense maybe pulling Lester there would bother Lester too much, and the roster stuff prevents them from just bringing up another position player while the pitchers are cruising like this. It would be nice to have a better pinch hitter than Tommy La Stella as the first guy off the bench, which is another thing the Cubs lost when Schwarber went down.
Anyway it me the guy complaining about a 13-4 team that’s outscoring opponents by an average of four runs a game (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
You’re making the mistake of assuming that Jake Arrieta is even human (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Maybe. Could just as easily be more rusty than you’d like because of the lack of regular work. I don’t know. I’d rather have that extra position player, but I’d also go to a 6-man bullpen if I was in charge so feel free to ignore me.
dmick89Quote Reply
Don’t tell me what to do
berseliusQuote Reply
Yeah, we know it does with Hammel (or did last year anyway). I imagine it would be the same with Lester and Arrieta and I’m Ok going with Joe’s decision on that. He knows these guys and it’s his job to manage the player as much as it is for him to manage the game. I think it was the Hendricks game when they were down 5-1 and Hendricks batted in the 5th. That was just a terrible decision made even worse when you factor in how rested the bullpen is. Many of the others we’ve talked about here have mostly been inconsequential (thanks to being 13-4 (dying laughing)).
dmick89Quote Reply
You said this as a joke, but I was thinking about it, Jake Arrieta 3rd time through the order against an average offense (let’s say 2 righties and 1 lefty due up), what reliever is good enough to be expected to be better than Arrieta at that point? Strop? I’m not sure. Rondon? More than likely. And that’s if we’ve somehow finally pinpointed Jake Arrieta’s true talent level and I’m not sure we have. That’s incredible.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
The Effetively Wild guys pointed out that on a per inning basis Arrieta as a starter has been even better than Wade Davis as a reliever over the same stretch.
berseliusQuote Reply
http://cbsloc.al/1Qud5Io
berseliusQuote Reply
Ross seems to be going all out this year. I don’t remember him doing much on the bases last year, but this year I can remember at least a few things already. Not that he’s a good baserunner or anything, but he just seems to be taking the extra base more often. I hope he continues to have a good season. That would be a great story in what is likely to be a team filled with great stories this season.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
(dying laughing) imagine how good Arrieta would be as a closer.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I probably would’ve pinch hit for him then, too. I think the long outlook dictates that you keep the starter stretched out, so that’s why he still ate five innings and change. The lack of save opportunities for Rondon is kind of hilarious in that he only has something like two saves and this is likely going to cost him next time through arbitration haha.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89,
How much it bothers me depends on the situation. Letting Lester hit with a 3-run lead wasn’t a big deal. On the other hand, letting Hendricks hit with the tying run at third was a disastrous decision in itself, compounded by the fact that Hendricks got clobbered the third time through the order (as he often does). That was about as bad a decision as a manager can make and it pissed me off.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I also try to be sympathetic to the fact that pitchers hate to be pulled early and teams have to keep their players happy to some extent. e.g., would Lester have signed with the Cubs if he thought he would have gotten pulled in the sixth inning in most of his starts?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Anyone watching the final season of Banshee?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Per that Fangraphs article: Arrieta BABIP third time through: .288 (dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Here are last year’s splits on times through the order for Arrieta. Curiously his OPS Against was a point better on the third time through than the second: .540 and the BABIP was even lower than quoted above at .251.
ceruleanQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
Fowler
Heyward
Bryant (LF)
Rizzo
Zobrist
Montero
Baez (3b)
Russell
Lackey
berseliusQuote Reply
Baez eating into Soler’s playing time, which I am cool with.
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
I’m almost surprised Baltimore didn’t go that route when he failed as a starter there.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Alright boys, let’s have some
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’d be ok with a no-hitter every other game the rest of the season.
dmick89Quote Reply
This party really died.
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
I’d be happier with a prospective
no-hitterone-hittertwo-hitter with a bigger cushion.ceruleanQuote Reply
A pinch-hitter for Lackey would be nice.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
For the record, I’m fine with Lackey batting here.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Probably the smart move, but I don’t think Lackey would be very happy to come out of this game after only 5.
dmick89Quote Reply
Hawks down 3–1 at the end of the 1st. They’ve got forty minutes to keep the season alive.
ceruleanQuote Reply
It will be the next time Lackey bats that l be shaking my head.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
At least the Reds’ bullpen is terrible.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
If he were at 97 pitches like Straily, definitely. But 71 pitches is maybe a bit soon. However, if the Cubs would utilize their super-utility pitchers the way some have imagined, that would be the right move, but I think they would have to do some convincing.
EDIT: Maybe that would help convince a stubborn dude like Lackey.
ceruleanQuote Reply
You were right. That was fucking ugly.
dmick89Quote Reply
This game got ugly.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ugh again.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
Unlike the last two, which were beautiful in every way.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Ugh yet again.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
I think the Cubs are wearing 2014 throwback uniforms or something.
dmick89Quote Reply
What kind of ugly was this?
ceruleanQuote Reply
I’m going to laugh my ass of if the Cubs score 7 this inning.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
That’s a distinct possibility with this bullpen
dmick89Quote Reply
The Hawks did not disappoint. Up 3 with 2 minutes left. Game 7 is coming in St Louis.
ceruleanQuote Reply
At least someone from Chicago won today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Pitcher regression is a bitch yo
Suburban kidQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
2b la stella
Cf Heyward
3b Bryant
1b Rizzo
Rf Soler
C Montero
LF szczur
SS Russell
P Hammel
berseliusQuote Reply
The Cubs finally being really good has made me greedy. I really want a 5-2 road trip.
dmick89Quote Reply
I have 7,743 songs (or sound clips) in my library
There are 48 Bowie songs (0.6%)
There are 12 Prince songs (0.15%)
So what are the odds of me listening on random today and a Bowie song is followed by a Prince song?
Maybe your math can explain that, but what about this: the next song was St. James Infirmary Blues — a famous English/American folk song about death.
Probabilities can fuck off, that was God’s own DJ controlling my shuffle.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Let’s assume you leave your playlist up for 12 hours today, and that the average length of a song is 3 minutes and 30 seconds, which seems reasonable by the googles. That means about 206 songs, so on average just one would be a Bowie song, which makes this easy. The chance of a Prince song coming up next would then be around 0.15%, or about a 1 in 666 chance.
berseliusQuote Reply
Maybe you’re looking in the wrong direction (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
That’s lower odds than I thought, but then I would normally (and today) only have it playing for one hour, not 12 hours.
Fair fucks to you for figuring that out.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Aw yeah Heyward with the high socks
Suburban kidQuote Reply
iCarly is picking up right where he left off (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
#Reads
berseliusQuote Reply
Fuck yeah Rizzomg
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Looked like that had the distance for the HR and Schebler could have caught it
berseliusQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
That’s pretty cool that happened. I noticed the other day I didn’t have Prince in my library. I fixed that.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
I can never tell on those replays considering the angles the shots are taken from.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wonder why Joe didn’t put Szczur in CF and leave Heyward and Soler in their usual positions (for this year)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
Rizzo>>>>>>>> Simon
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
#Reads.
berseliusQuote Reply
Price might as well have Simon throw 150 pitches today before DFAing him tomorrow.
berseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
The Cubs got blown out in one of the games this series yet they have outscored Cincy 37-14 in this series so far. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Big and nice win for the Cubbies against the Reds.
Berdj RassamQuote Reply
Three PAs in three innings for TLS.
berseliusQuote Reply
Me, three minutes ago: “Oh, I think the Cubs game started.”
*Checks score, expires laughing*
ceruleanQuote Reply
Runner in scoring position with nobody out, and this team fails to score. They need to work on that.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
Imagine when they actually figure that one out.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
G6-3 ×3
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Cubs are getting phenomenal prediction out of the leadoff position.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The LaStella Game
Suburban kidQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
uncle daveQuote Reply
White Sox in first place with half the runs scored of the Cubs.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I think Hammel is channeling Arrieta. Curiously, his bugbear last year was the first inning, thus the first time through the order—he was much better the second and third times through, though a bit wilder and a bit unlucky. Maybe that second half mechanical/injury issue is fixed.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
He’s certainly channeling his ERA
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
His beard is going pretty strong too.
ceruleanQuote Reply
ceruleanQuote Reply
Rondon sighting. Needed the work.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
He brought his FIP down to -0.93.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
This is roughly equivalent to Rondon scoring a run every nine innings pitched, correct?
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
I should have said he kept his FIP at -.093, since no walks, 2 K’s is just an average inning for him so far.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-9-reds-0/
berseliusQuote Reply